1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the short - term up and down drivers of Zhengzhou cotton are relatively weak, and it is expected to operate in a range. Attention should be paid to weather and macro - level disturbances. The international market is mainly affected by macro factors, and the fundamental drive is limited. The domestic new cotton planting area is expected to increase year - on - year, and the supply pressure remains [1] - For sugar, the recent drive is insufficient, and it is still treated as a range - bound market. Attention should be paid to future imports and domestic sales [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Cotton**: On Wednesday, ICE US cotton fell 0.11% to 66.05 cents per pound, and CF509 rose 0.22% to 13,440 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 1,339 lots to 574,400 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 14,487 yuan per ton, up 22 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 14,567 yuan per ton, up 17 yuan from the previous day [1] - **Sugar**: The beet planting area in Germany in the 2025/26 sugar - making season decreased by 6.6% to about 408,500 hectares. The mainstream quotation range of Guangxi sugar - making groups is 6,100 - 6,190 yuan per ton, and that of Yunnan sugar - making groups is 5,900 - 5,950 yuan per ton, with most prices down 10 yuan per ton. The raw sugar rebounded after a multi - day decline, and the domestic spot trading was average [1] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 7 - 9 contract spread was - 185 yuan, down 5 yuan; the main contract basis was 1,127 yuan, down 28 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang was 14,487 yuan per ton, up 22 yuan, and the national spot price was 14,567 yuan per ton, up 17 yuan [2] - **Sugar**: The 7 - 9 contract spread was 80 yuan, down 1 yuan; the main contract basis was 287 yuan, down 24 yuan. The spot price in Nanning was 6,150 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan, and that in Liuzhou was 6,150 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Market Information - On May 21, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 11,455, a decrease of 46 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 316 [3] - On May 21, the cotton arrival prices in different domestic regions were: 14,487 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,578 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,592 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,717 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3] - On May 21, the yarn comprehensive load was 54.8, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 23.2, unchanged from the previous day; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 53.1, unchanged from the previous day; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 30.5, down 0.1 from the previous day [3] - On May 21, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 6,150 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day, and that in Liuzhou was 6,150 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day [3] - On May 21, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 32,484, a decrease of 352 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 91 [4] 3.4 Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts including cotton and sugar's main contract closing prices, basis, contract spreads, warehouse receipts, and price indices [6][9][13][16]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the cotton and sugar industries is "Oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, on Tuesday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.73% to 66.12 cents per pound, and CF509 rose 0.11% to 13,395 yuan per ton. The main - contract position increased by 1,221 lots to 575,700 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 14,465 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan from the previous day. The China Cotton Price Index Grade 3128B was 14,550 yuan per ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day. Internationally, the macro - level disturbances are significant. The Fed officials said they won't rush to cut interest rates, and the U.S. dollar index is weakening. The U.S. cotton price lacks a continuous upward drive. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price is oscillating in a new range, lacking the power to break the situation. If there are no macro - level surprises, the market will focus on new cotton. The new cotton planting area is expected to increase year - on - year, and this year is still expected to be a bumper harvest, so there is pressure on the supply side. Overall, the short - term upward and downward drivers for Zhengzhou cotton are weak, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - For sugar, the mainstream quotation range of Guangxi sugar - making groups is 6,110 - 6,200 yuan per ton, and that of Yunnan sugar - making groups is 5,910 - 5,950 yuan per ton, both down 10 yuan per ton. In April 2025, China imported 85,400 tons of sugar syrup and premixed powder. The raw sugar price continued to decline slightly due to the smooth harvest. Without macro - level support, the market is temporarily bearish, and attention should be paid to the Brazilian sugarcane crushing progress. The domestic spot market has average trading volume, with end - users buying as needed. The support comes from the relatively low inventory pressure, and the pressure comes from future imports. It is expected to oscillate, and investors should wait patiently for short - selling opportunities [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 7 - 9 contract spread is - 180, up 10; the main - contract basis is 1,155, down 21; the Xinjiang spot price is 14,465 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan; the national spot price is 14,550 yuan per ton, down 16 yuan [2] - For sugar, the 7 - 9 contract spread is 81, up 1; the main - contract basis is 311, up 4; the Nanning spot price is 6,140 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan; the Liuzhou spot price is 6,160 yuan per ton, unchanged [2] 2. Market Information - On May 20, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 11,501, down 54 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 311 [3] - On May 20, the cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 14,465 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,569 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,583 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,706 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3] - On May 20, the comprehensive yarn load was 54.8, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive yarn inventory was 23.2, unchanged; the comprehensive short - fiber cloth load was 53.1, unchanged; the comprehensive short - fiber cloth inventory was 30.6, down 0.1 [3] - On May 20, the sugar spot price in Nanning was 6,140 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day, and in Liuzhou was 6,160 yuan per ton, unchanged [3] - On May 20, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 32,836, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 91 [4] 3. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including the closing price, basis, contract spread, and warehouse receipts of cotton and sugar, which help to analyze the historical trends and current situations of these two soft commodities [6][13][16] 4. Research Team - The research team consists of Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for research on sugar, urea, soda - ash glass, and cotton - related varieties respectively, and have rich experience and many honors [18][19][20]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, on Monday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 1.22% to 65.68 cents per pound, and CF509 fell 0.19% to 13,390 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest increased by 1,911 lots to 574,500 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 14,474 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 14,566 yuan per ton, down 11 yuan. Internationally, the recent disturbances are more on the macro - level, with the U.S. dollar index weakening and the U.S. cotton price rising, but the absolute price is still relatively low. Domestically, after the preliminary Sino - U.S. tariff agreement, Zhengzhou cotton futures entered a new oscillation range. In April, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 108.8 billion yuan, up 2.2% year - on - year, but the growth rate was seasonally lower and still lower than the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales. If there is no unexpected macro impact, the market focus will shift to new cotton. The new cotton planting area is expected to increase year - on - year, and this year is expected to be a bumper harvest, so there is still pressure on the supply side. In the short term, the upward and downward drivers of Zhengzhou cotton are relatively weak, and it is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to weather and macro disturbances [1]. - For sugar, the spot quotes of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups were stable. In April 2025, China imported 130,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 75,700 tons year - on - year. From January to April 2025, China imported 278,400 tons of sugar, a decrease of 979,100 tons year - on - year, a decline of 77.86%. As of April in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, China imported 1.7401 million tons of sugar, a decrease of 1.3773 million tons year - on - year, a decline of 44.18%. Affected by the supply outlook, the raw sugar futures price was weak. Domestic sales were average, mainly for rigid demand, and the price lacked driving force, showing a narrow - range oscillation. It should be treated with an interval approach, waiting patiently for trading opportunities [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: The view is "oscillation". The price of ICE U.S. cotton rose, while Zhengzhou cotton futures fell slightly. The open interest increased. The cotton arrival price and the China Cotton Price Index decreased. Macro factors affect the international market, and the domestic market is affected by the tariff agreement and terminal demand. New cotton supply may bring pressure, and short - term oscillation is expected [1]. - **Sugar**: The view is "oscillation". Spot quotes were stable. Import data showed a mixed trend. Raw sugar futures were weak, and domestic sales were for rigid demand, with prices oscillating in a narrow range [1]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 7 - 9 contract spread was - 190 yuan, up 5 yuan; the main contract basis was 1,176 yuan, down 11 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price was 14,474 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan, and the national spot price was 14,566 yuan per ton, down 11 yuan [2]. - **Sugar**: The 7 - 9 contract spread was 80 yuan, up 6 yuan; the main contract basis was 307 yuan, up 2 yuan. The Nanning spot price was 6,120 yuan per ton, unchanged, and the Liuzhou spot price was 6,160 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. 3. Market Information - On May 19, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 11,555, an increase of 7 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 315 [3]. - On May 19, the cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 14,474 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,586 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,605 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,714 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3]. - On May 19, the comprehensive load of yarn was 54.8, unchanged; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 23.2, a decrease of 0.2; the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 53.1, unchanged; the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 30.7, a decrease of 0.2 [3]. - On May 19, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 6,120 yuan per ton, unchanged, and in Liuzhou was 6,160 yuan per ton, unchanged [3]. - On May 19, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 32,836, an increase of 256 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 91 [4]. 4. Chart Analysis - Charts include cotton and sugar's main contract closing prices, basis, contract spreads, 1% tariff quota internal - external spreads, warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, and the China Cotton Price Index. The data sources are Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [6][11][13][15]. 5. Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry. He has won many awards related to sugar analysis [18]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass, and has won many honors [19]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys, and has won the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's senior analyst title for textiles [20].

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 5 月 16 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周四，ICE 美棉上涨 0.02%，报收 65.49 美分/磅，CF509 上涨 0.19%，报收 13415 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 266 手至 57.28 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14469 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 40 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14524 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日上涨 40 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期扰动仍更多在于宏观层面，关注美元指数 | | | | 变动及政府官员发言，或对美棉有较大影响。基本面的影响有限，目前看 USDA 预 | | | | 计 2025/26 年度全球棉花供需宽松格局或有一定扭转，但我们认为 USDA 低估 | | | | 2025/26 年度全球棉花产量，持续关注后续估产情况。国内市场方面，近期郑棉期 | | | | 价进入进的震荡区间，重心环比上移。中美关税谈判效果略超市场预期，纺服产品 | | | | 开始恢复发运， ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 全球糖供应预期增加，糖价短线承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-05-14 免责声明 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：在 2024/25 年度，除了云南以外，其他主要产区的糖厂已经开始收 榨，食糖的恢复性增产已成定局。五一等节假日的消费拉动了食糖需求，支 撑了糖价的稳定。国际方面，巴西在 2025/26 年度的制糖生产逐步展开，但 由于天气因素，其产糖量存在不确定性，预计短期内国际糖价将震荡走弱。 后续需关注国内甘蔗和甜菜的种植及生长情况，以及巴西的食糖生产进度。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：由于美国对我国出口商品加征关税，中国的纺织品和服装出口出现 放缓，消费量减少了 20 万吨，降至 760 万吨，进口量也减少了 20 万吨 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, on Tuesday, ICE US cotton fell 0.88% to 67.82 cents per pound, and CF509 declined 0.23% to 12,745 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract increased by 6,434 lots to 587,500 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 13,846 yuan per ton, down 79 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 14,113 yuan per ton, down 70 yuan. With macro - level disturbances, mixed US economic data, and the Fed likely to hold rates in May, the drought impact on US cotton - growing areas has weakened. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton is in a low - level oscillation. There is an expectation of improved Sino - US tariffs and the price is at a relatively low historical level, but it's the off - season for textile and clothing consumption, and the new cotton planting area has increased. Overall, it's expected to oscillate in a low - level range in the short term [1]. - For sugar, in the 2024/25 sugar - making season as of April 30, 2025, India's crushed sugarcane was 275.857 million tons, a decrease of 35.655 million tons (11.44%) from the previous year, and sugar production was 25.695 million tons, a decrease of 5.77 million tons (18.33%). The spot prices of sugar - making groups in Guangxi and Yunnan were lowered. The raw sugar price rebounded due to macro - sentiment and crude oil but was pressured by the issue of increased production. Considering future imported sugar arrivals, a bearish view is held, but the downward space is not seen as deep due to the limited inventory pressure of domestic sugar [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 7 - 9 contract spread was - 235 with no change, the main basis was 1,368, down 65. The spot price in Xinjiang was 13,846, down 79, and the national price was 14,113, down 70 [2]. - For sugar, the 7 - 9 contract spread was 75, up 1, the main basis was 290, down 23. The spot price in Nanning was 6,160, down 10, and in Liuzhou was 6,180, down 20 [2]. 2. Market Information - On May 6, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 11,116, an increase of 76 from the previous day, with 1,194 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 13,846 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,160 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,148 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,127 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3]. - On May 6, the yarn comprehensive load was 54.4, down 0.5 from the previous day, the yarn comprehensive inventory was 23.4, up 0.5, the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 52.4, down 0.7, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 30.5, up 0.2 [3]. - On May 6, the sugar spot price in Nanning was 6,160 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day, and in Liuzhou was 6,180 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 28,629, a decrease of 121 from the previous day, with 4,274 valid forecasts [3][4]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including those for cotton (main contract closing price, main contract basis, 7 - 9 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, China Cotton Price Index) and sugar (main contract closing price, main contract basis, 7 - 9 spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts) [6][13][16].

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 4 月 30 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周二，ICE 美棉下跌 1.47%，报收 66.56 美分/磅，CF509 下跌 1%，报收 12840 元/ | | | | 吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 2557 手至 57.3 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 13982 元 | | | | /吨，较前一日下降 16 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14244 元/吨，较前一 | | | | 日增加 10 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期驱动仍更多在于宏观层面，美元指数重心上 | 震荡偏 | | | 移，美棉价格震荡走弱，基本面变化有限，持续关注宏观数据。国内市场方面，近 | | | | 期郑棉期价重心小幅下移，基本面支撑稍显不足，但我们认为短期下方空间有限。 | 弱 | | | 一是中美关税税率较此前再度恶化空间不大，二是新棉种植期，国内棉花种植面积 | | | | 较此前预估或小幅下降，未来天气若有扰动则是利多，三是对未来国内宏观政策的 | | | | 预期。综上，我们认为短期郑棉底部有 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 受原油拖累，棉花短线承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-04-22 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：在 2024/25 年度，除了云南以外，其他主要产区的糖厂已经开始收 榨，食糖的恢复性增产已成定局。五一等节假日的消费拉动了食糖需求，支 撑了糖价的稳定。国际方面，巴西在 2025/26 年度的制糖生产逐步展开，但 由于天气因素，其产糖量存在不确定性，预计短期内国际糖价将震荡走弱。 后续需关注国内甘蔗和甜菜的种植及生长情况，以及巴西的食糖生产进度。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：由于美国对我国出口商品加征关税，中国的纺织品和服装出口出现 放缓，消费量减少了 20 万吨，降至 760 万吨，进口量也减少了 20 万吨， 降至 150 ...