Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for cold drinks during the summer vacation, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly. The impact of rainfall in Inner Mongolia and typhoons in Guangdong and Guangxi on sugar production needs further tracking and evaluation. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [1][3] - High temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August pose a high risk of heat damage to cotton. The current commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, there is bottom support for cotton prices. Cotton growth conditions are suitable, but there is a risk of price decline after the centralized listing of cotton. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5,770.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5,740.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14,550.0 yuan [1] Market - US sugar closed at 15.24, with a change of - 3.36%. US cotton closed at 64.41, with a change of 0.34% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the demand for cold drinks during the summer vacation, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered. Due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets, recent sugar imports have increased significantly [1] - Cotton: High temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August pose a high risk of heat damage to cotton. The current commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, there is bottom support for cotton prices [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 8,376.0, with a change of - 0.37%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 2,579.0, with a change of - 0.73% [2] Conclusion - Sugar: In August, excessive rainfall in Inner Mongolia was unfavorable for sugar beet sugar accumulation and harvesting, and the opening time of sugar mills was postponed. In late September and early October, typhoons in Guangdong, Guangxi and other major sugar - cane producing areas caused sugar - cane lodging. The post - disaster growth and recovery of sugar - cane need continuous attention [3] - Cotton: The meteorological conditions during the cotton growth period were suitable, and the yield per unit area and quality in some areas were higher than expected. As of October 6, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was 24.9%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The opening price of seed cotton was flat or slightly lower year - on - year, and there was a risk of decline after the centralized listing. Cotton prices are expected to range from 14,000 to 16,000 yuan [3] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [3] Data Quick View - **Foreign Market Quotes**: US sugar decreased from 15.77 to 15.24, a change of - 3.36%; US cotton increased from 64.19 to 64.41, a change of 0.34% [4] - **Spot Prices**: Nanning and Kunming sugar spot prices remained unchanged; the cotton index 328 decreased slightly, and Xinjiang cotton increased from 14,500.0 to 14,550.0, a change of 0.34% [4] - **Price Difference Quick View**: The price differences of SR01 - 05, SR09 - 01, etc. changed to varying degrees, while some remained unchanged [4] - **Import Prices**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged [4] - **Profit Margin**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged [4] - **Options**: The implied volatilities of SR601C5400, SR601P5400, CF601C13600, and CF601P13600 are given, along with the historical volatilities of relevant futures [4] - **Inventory Warehouse Receipts**: Sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 8,407.0 to 8,376.0, a change of - 0.37%; cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 2,598.0 to 2,579.0, a change of - 0.73% [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, on Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.03% to 63.78 cents per pound, and CF601 rose 0.49% to 13,320 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract increased by 5,766 lots to 586,600 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,420 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day. In the international market, the overall driving force of U.S. cotton is limited recently, and the data is still in a relatively vacuum period due to the U.S. government shutdown. In the short term, U.S. cotton prices are expected to remain in a low - level shock. In the domestic market, the focus is on new cotton. The supply pressure has increased during the new cotton listing period, and the new cotton volume this year has reached a 10 - year high with an earlier listing progress. There is a short - term mismatch between supply and demand, but the supply - demand pattern of cotton in China, the U.S., and the world has narrowed compared to the previous year. After the supply pressure eases, cotton prices may improve. Overall, the upward pressure on Zhengzhou cotton remains in the short term [1]. - For sugar, in the second half of September, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil reached 3.137 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.76%. The sugar - making ratio of sugarcane was 51.17%, lower than the 53.49% in the first half of September. The cumulative sugar production as of September reached 33.524 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.84%. Although the cumulative production has continued to rise year - on - year, the decline in the sugar - making ratio has temporarily alleviated market concerns, but the futures price rebound is weak due to over - production. In the domestic market, the spot price has been continuously lowered, and the cost support has gradually emerged after the futures price fell to 5,400 yuan per ton. Before the raw sugar makes a new breakthrough, the domestic market is expected to fluctuate, waiting for the import data in September and the estimated production of the new sugar - crushing season [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: ICE U.S. cotton and CF601 prices changed on Thursday. The position of the main contract increased. The international market has limited driving force and data vacuum. The domestic new cotton supply pressure is high in the short term, but the annual supply - demand pattern has narrowed. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton has upward pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production data shows an increase in production and a decline in the sugar - making ratio. The domestic spot price is lowered, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate [1]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 55, up 5; the main contract basis was 1344, down 60. The spot price in Xinjiang was 14,510 yuan per ton, down 3, and the national average was 14,664 yuan per ton, down 10 [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 35, up 6; the main contract basis was 372, down 15. The spot price in Nanning was 5,790 yuan per ton, unchanged, and in Liuzhou was 5,780 yuan per ton, down 10 [2]. 3. Market Information - **Cotton**: On October 16, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 49 to 2,724, with 112 valid forecasts. The arrival prices of cotton in different regions were reported. The yarn comprehensive load and inventory, and short - fiber cloth comprehensive load and inventory data were also provided [3]. - **Sugar**: On October 16, the spot price in Nanning remained unchanged at 5,790 yuan per ton, and in Liuzhou decreased by 10 yuan to 5,780 yuan per ton. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 8,438, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. 4. Chart Analysis - **Cotton**: Charts show the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and China cotton price index of the cotton main contract over different time periods [6][8][9][10][11][12]. - **Sugar**: Charts show the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of the sugar main contract over different time periods [14][15][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton is expected to operate under pressure. ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.5% to 63.83 cents per pound on Wednesday, and CF601 increased 0.11% to 13,270 yuan per ton. The international market focuses on the macro - level, and the U.S. government shutdown causes a data vacuum. The domestic new cotton supply is at a 10 - year high and the listing is earlier, creating short - term supply - demand imbalance. However, the cotton supply - demand pattern has narrowed compared to last year, and cotton prices may improve after the supply pressure eases [1]. - Sugar is in a weak oscillation state. The average yield of sugar cane in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 6.5% this season. Domestic sugar spot prices are continuously decreasing, and the market lacks short - term drivers. Attention should be paid to the support at integer levels [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Cotton**: ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.5% to 63.83 cents per pound, and CF601 increased 0.11% to 13,270 yuan per ton. The main contract positions increased by 12,867 to 580,900 hands. The 3128B cotton spot price index was 14,400 yuan per ton, down 25 yuan. In the international market, the U.S. government shutdown leads to a data vacuum, and the U.S. cotton price is in a low - level oscillation. In the domestic market, new cotton supply is large and early, causing short - term imbalance, but the annual supply - demand pattern has improved [1]. - **Sugar**: The average yield of sugar cane in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 6.5% this season. The 2025/26 season's 4 - 9 monthly average yield was 77.7 tons per hectare, down 5.5 tons. Domestic sugar spot prices are decreasing, and the market is in a weak oscillation [1]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 60, down 5; the main basis was 1404, down 86. The Xinjiang spot price was 14,513 yuan per ton, down 85, and the national average was 14,674 yuan per ton, down 81 [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 29, up 3; the main basis was 387, down 16. The Nanning spot price was 5790 yuan per ton, down 20, and the Liuzhou price was 5790 yuan per ton, down 10 [2]. 3.3 Market Information - **Cotton**: On October 15, the cotton futures warehouse receipts were 2,773, down 50, with 96 valid forecasts. The arrival prices in different regions were: Xinjiang 14,513 yuan per ton, Henan 14,755 yuan per ton, Shandong 14,676 yuan per ton, and Zhejiang 14,868 yuan per ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 51.3, up 0.1, and the inventory was 26.1, unchanged. The short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 52, unchanged, and the inventory was 29.3, unchanged [3]. - **Sugar**: On October 15, the Nanning sugar spot price was 5790 yuan per ton, down 20, and the Liuzhou price was 5790 yuan per ton, down 10. The sugar futures warehouse receipts were 8,438, down 50, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are provided, including those showing the closing prices, basis, 1 - 5 spreads, and warehouse receipts of cotton and sugar, as well as the 1% tariff quota internal - external spreads of cotton and the China Cotton Price Index [6][9][11][14][17]. 3.5 Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry and has won many awards [19]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass and has also won multiple awards [20]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys and has won relevant honors [21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton is expected to operate under pressure in the short - term. Internationally, the market focus is on the macro - level, with the US dollar index strongly oscillating above 99, pressuring the US cotton price. Domestically, there is a strong expectation of a new cotton harvest this year, and the supply pressure will persist for a long time [1]. - Sugar is expected to continue to show a weak oscillation, following the trend of raw sugar. The market is short of drivers after the sharp decline, and it awaits the crushing data of the second half of September in the central - southern region of Brazil [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Research Views - **Cotton**: On Monday, ICE US cotton fell 0.47% to 63.54 cents per pound, CF601 decreased 0.41% to 13,300 yuan per ton, and the main contract positions increased by 8,508 to 563,400 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,450 yuan per ton, down 45 yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Sugar**: An investigation shows that the expected cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of September is 40.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%, and the expected sugar production is 3.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. The US market tumbled by over 3%, and the domestic market also declined after the overnight opening [1]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 60, down 10; the main basis was 1489, up 57; the Xinjiang spot price was 14,642, up 12, and the national spot price was 14,789, up 14 [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 30, down 2; the main basis was 350, up 26; the Nanning spot price was 5800, unchanged, and the Liuzhou spot price was 5820, down 15 [2]. Market Information - On October 13, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,867, down 75 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 31 [3]. - On October 13, the arrival prices of cotton in various domestic regions were: 14,642 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,871 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,802 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,957 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3]. - On October 13, the comprehensive yarn load was 50.6, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive yarn inventory was 26.1, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive short - fiber cloth load was 51.9, up 0.1 from the previous day; the comprehensive short - fiber cloth inventory was 29.3, up 0.1 from the previous day [3]. - On October 13, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5800 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day, and in Liuzhou it was 5820 yuan per ton, down 15 from the previous day [3]. - On October 13, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 8,681, down 186 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 0 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Views - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widening price gap between domestic and foreign markets. The impact of rainfall in Inner Mongolia on sugar beet production and the growth recovery of sugarcane after typhoon damage in Guangdong and Guangxi need further attention. The strategy is to mainly wait and see [1][3] - In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was at high risk of high - temperature heat damage. The current commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, and the cotton price has bottom - support as the cotton textile peak season is approaching. The cotton growth period has suitable meteorological conditions, and the picking progress in Xinjiang is 24.9% as of October 6, with the price expected to range from 14,000 to 16,000 yuan. The strategy is to mainly wait and see [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5,800.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5,810.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14,650.0 yuan [1] Disk - US sugar closed at 16.1 with a change of 0.00%. US cotton closed at 63.77 with a change of 0.00% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the demand for summer cold drinks, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widening price gap between domestic and foreign markets [1] - Cotton: In August, the temperature in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was high and precipitation was low, so cotton was at high risk of high - temperature heat damage. The current commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, and the cotton price has bottom - support as the cotton textile peak season is approaching [1] Inventory Warrants - Zhengzhou sugar warrants are 8,867.0 with a change of 0.00%; Zhengzhou cotton warrants are 2,942.0 with a change of 0.00% [2] Data Quick View Outer Market Quotes - US sugar was 16.1 on October 11 and 16.1 on October 12, with a change of 0.00%. US cotton was 63.77 on October 11 and 63.77 on October 12, with a change of 0.00% [4] Spot Prices - Nanning sugar was 5,800.0 on October 10 and 5,800.0 on October 11, with a change of 0.00%. Kunming sugar was 5,820.0 on October 10 and 5,810.0 on October 11, with a change of - 0.17%. Cotton Index 328 was 3,281 on October 10 and 3,280 on October 11, with a change of 0.12%. Xinjiang cotton was 14,750.0 on October 10 and 14,650.0 on October 11, with a change of - 0.68% [4] Spread Quick View - All spreads and basis for sugar and cotton contracts from October 11 to October 12 had a change of 0.00% [4] Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA was 76.05 on October 10 and 76.05 on October 11, with a change of 0.00% [4] Profit Space - Sugar import profit was 1,459.0 on October 10 and 1,459.0 on October 11, with a change of 0.00% [4] Options - For SR601C5500, the implied volatility was 0.0827, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying SR601 was 6.63. For SR601P5500, the implied volatility was 0.0789. For CF601C13400, the implied volatility was 0.0917, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying CF601 was 7.76. For CF601P13400, the implied volatility was 0.0935 [4] Inventory Warrants - Sugar warrants were 8,867.0 on October 10 and 8,867.0 on October 11, with a change of 0.00%. Cotton warrants were 2,942.0 on October 10 and 2,942.0 on October 11, with a change of 0.00% [4] Conclusion - Sugar: In August, rainfall in Inner Mongolia was excessive, which was not conducive to the sugar accumulation and harvesting of sugar beets, and the sugar factory start - up time was postponed. The impact on sugar beet sugar production needs further tracking and evaluation. In late September and early October, sugarcane in major producing areas such as Guangdong and Guangxi was affected by typhoons, and the post - disaster growth recovery needs continuous attention [3] - Cotton: The meteorological conditions during the cotton growth period were suitable, and the yield and quality in some areas were higher than expected. As of October 6, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was 24.9%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The opening price of seed cotton was flat to slightly lower year - on - year, and there is a downward risk after the centralized listing. The cotton price is expected to range from 14,000 to 16,000 yuan [3] Strategy Suggestion - Wait and see mainly [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar: Domestic sugar prices are supported by potential production cuts in Guangdong and Guangxi due to typhoons, but are limited by abundant international supply from Brazil and global oversupply expectations. In the short term, sugar prices are expected to remain range - bound [3]. - Cotton: Short - term cotton price decline may slow down as seed cotton purchase prices rise slightly, but weak downstream demand, insufficient market confidence, and new cotton supply pressure will bring hedging pressure on cotton prices [15]. - Apple: Continuous rainy weather in apple - producing areas has affected the quality and supply schedule. Good - quality apples' price increases will boost apple futures prices in the near term, with near - month contracts showing stronger trends and long - term prices being more volatile [19]. - Jujube: With new - season jujubes about to be harvested, high inventory of old jujubes and limited orders from inland merchants may lead to downward pressure on jujube prices [28]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Price and Spread**: On October 10, 2025, SR01 closed at 5496 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.58% and a weekly increase of 0.20%. Price spreads such as SR01 - 05 were also provided [4]. - **Basis**: On October 9, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 272 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 15 yuan/ton and a weekly decline of 11 yuan/ton [10]. - **Import Price**: On October 10, 2025, the quota - free import price of Brazilian sugar was 4482 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 28 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 190 yuan/ton [13]. Cotton - **Futures Price**: On the reporting date, cotton 01 closed at 13325 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.23%); cotton yarn 01 closed at 19375 yuan/ton, unchanged [16]. - **Spread**: The cotton basis was 1432 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton; the flower - yarn spread was 6060 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton [17]. Apple - **Futures and Spot Price**: On October 10, 2025, AP01 closed at 8744 yuan/ton, up 1.29% daily and 3.53% weekly. The price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples was 3.8 yuan/jin, unchanged [20]. - **Spread and Basis**: AP01 - 05 was 111 yuan/ton, down 39.67% daily and up 27.59% weekly; the main - contract basis was - 91 yuan/ton, down 495.65% daily and 135.55% weekly [20]. Jujube - **Futures Spread and Inventory**: The report shows historical trends of jujube futures spreads (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) and the sum of jujube warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [29][31]. - **Price Trends**: It also presents the price trends of Xinjiang jujube main - producing areas and main - sales areas [32].

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 10 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周四，ICE 美棉下跌 0.69%，报收 64.46 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 0.38%，报收 13295 | 上方承 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比上涨 15043 手至 55.05 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 | | | | 14500 元/吨，较前一日下降 45 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期市场关注重心仍更多 | | | | 在于宏观层面，美国政府依旧处于停摆状态中。美联储议息会议纪要显示，委员 | | | | 对后续降息路径仍有分歧，美元指数重新回到 99 以上，美棉价格低位窄幅震荡为 | | | | 主。国内市场方面，节后首日郑棉止跌，持仓环比增加。当前市场关注重心在于 | | | | 新棉，依据国家纤检中心，截止 10 月 8 日，本年度全国新棉累计公检量近 20 万吨， | 压 | | | 高于去年同期水平，上市进度稍有提前。未来 10 天，新疆北部气温偏低，仍有少 | | | | 量降雨，对籽棉收购进度仍 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for cold drinks in summer, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. The price of cotton has bottom - support as the commercial inventory is decreasing and the peak season for cotton textile is coming. The strategy suggestion is to mainly wait and see [1][3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Information - The spot price of sugar in Nanning is 5,800.0 yuan, in Kunming is 5,820.0 yuan, and the spot price of cotton in Xinjiang is 14,850.0 yuan [1] Disk Surface - The closing price of US sugar is 16.25, with a change of - 0.43%. The closing price of US cotton is 64.46, with a change of - 0.74% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the summer cold - drink demand, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and sugar imports have increased significantly due to the expanded price difference between domestic and foreign markets. Cotton: In August, the temperature in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin cotton areas was high and precipitation was low, so cotton was at a high risk of heat damage. The commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is coming, so the cotton price has bottom - support [1] Inventory Warrants - The number of Zhengzhou sugar warrants is 8,898.0, with a change of - 0.78%. The number of Zhengzhou cotton warrants is 3,030.0, with a change of - 1.66% [2] Conclusion - Sugar: The growth of sugarcane in southern producing areas is generally good, but the sugar beet production in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia is affected, which delays the sugar factory's startup time. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. Cotton: Cotton imports are lower than expected, and the expected ending inventory is lowered. The overall growth of cotton is better than last year, and the demand for cotton is expected to recover during the traditional peak season, so the price has the impetus to rise [3] Data Quick View - **Outer - Market Quotes**: The price of US sugar decreased from 16.32 to 16.25, a change of - 0.43%. The price of US cotton decreased from 64.94 to 64.46, a change of - 0.74% [4] - **Spot Prices**: The price of sugar in Nanning increased from 5,780.0 to 5,800.0, a change of 0.35%. The price of sugar in Kunming increased from 5,810.0 to 5,820.0, a change of 0.17%. The cotton index 328 decreased from 3,281 to 3,280, a change of - 0.14%. The price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased from 14,950.0 to 14,850.0, a change of - 0.67% [4] - **Price Difference Quick View**: Different sugar and cotton contract price differences and basis have different degrees of change [4] - **Import Prices**: The price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 76.05, a change of 0.00% [4] - **Profit Space**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1,456.0, a change of 0.00% [4] - **Options**: Different sugar and cotton option contracts have different implied volatilities and historical volatilities [4] - **Inventory Warrants**: The number of sugar warrants decreased from 8,968.0 to 8,898.0, a change of - 0.78%. The number of cotton warrants decreased from 3,081.0 to 3,030.0, a change of - 1.66% [4]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Cotton is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term. ICE US cotton dropped 1.51% to 65.4 cents/pound, CF601 fell 0.82% to 13350 yuan/ton, and the main contract positions decreased by 4260 to 530,600 hands. The pressure of new cotton's concentrated and large - scale listing and limited short - term downstream digestion ability are the main factors, but there are also some supporting factors, and the futures price has reached a phased low level. Attention should be paid to the seed cotton purchase situation [1]. - Sugar is expected to be in a volatile state. Spot sugar prices in some regions have adjusted, and raw sugar prices are boosted by the impact of crude oil on ethanol prices. The market focuses on Brazil's production progress, and after the holiday, it will focus on Inner Mongolia's production progress and September import data. It is recommended to hold light positions during the holiday [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: ICE US cotton and CF601 declined, with the main contract positions decreasing. The international market is affected by macro - level disturbances, and the domestic market is under pressure from new cotton listing. The short - term trend is weak and volatile [1]. - **Sugar**: Spot sugar prices in different regions have different trends, raw sugar is affected by crude oil, and the market focuses on production and import data. The futures market is recommended to hold light positions during the holiday [1]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread is - 10 yuan, down 10 yuan; the main contract basis in Xinjiang is 1603 yuan, down 35 yuan; the spot price in Xinjiang is 14942 yuan, down 13 yuan, and the national spot price is 14953 yuan, down 48 yuan [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread is 41 yuan, up 2 yuan; the main contract basis in Nanning is 366 yuan, down 11 yuan; the spot price in Nanning is 5780 yuan, unchanged, and in Liuzhou is 5845 yuan, down 10 yuan [2]. 3. Market Information - **Cotton**: On September 29, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 224 to 3173, with 22 valid forecasts. The arrival prices of cotton in different regions on September 19 are different. On September 29, the yarn comprehensive load decreased by 0.1 to 50.2, the inventory remained flat at 25.8, the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load decreased by 0.1 to 52.4, and the inventory increased by 0.1 to 29.1 [3]. - **Sugar**: On September 29, the sugar spot price in Nanning remained unchanged at 5780 yuan/ton, and in Liuzhou decreased by 10 yuan to 5845 yuan/ton. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 483 to 8981, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. 4. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are provided, including those related to cotton's main contract closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, and China cotton price index, as well as sugar's main contract closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [6][8][9][10][11][12][14][15][17]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for sugar is "sideways" [1]. - The investment rating for cotton is "sideways" [1]. Core Viewpoints - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for cold drinks during the summer. The import of sugar has increased significantly recently due to the widened price difference between domestic and international markets. The international sugar price is weakly fluctuating above the lowest point in the past four years, with production expected to exceed consumption. The overall growth of sugarcane in southern China is good, but the sugar production in some beet - producing areas in China is affected [1][2]. - The cotton import is lower than expected, and the expected ending inventory is reduced. The overall growth of cotton this year is better than last year. As the textile market enters the traditional peak season, cotton demand is expected to recover, and prices have the potential to rise [2]. Summary by Directory Information - The spot price of sugar in Nanning is 5780.0 yuan, and in Kunming is 5810.0 yuan. The spot price of cotton in Xinjiang is 15050.0 yuan [1]. Futures Market - The closing price of US sugar is 16.35, with a change of 0.37%. The closing price of US cotton is 66.33, with a change of 0.09% [1]. Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the summer demand for cold drinks, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered. Due to the widened price difference between domestic and international markets, sugar imports have increased significantly recently [1]. - Cotton: In August, the temperature in cotton - growing areas in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was high and precipitation was low, increasing the risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton. The commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, there is support at the bottom for cotton prices [1]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts is 9464.0, with a change of - 3.36%. The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts is 3397.0, with a change of - 5.19% [1]. Data Quick View - **External Market Quotes**: The price of US sugar increased from 16.29 to 16.35, a change of 0.37%. The price of US cotton increased from 66.27 to 66.33, a change of 0.09% [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of sugar in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged. The cotton index 328 decreased by 0.27%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang increased by 0.33% [3]. - **Price Difference Insights**: There were various changes in the price differences of sugar and cotton futures contracts, and the basis of both sugar and cotton increased [3]. - **Import Prices**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged [3]. - **Profit Margins**: The sugar import profit decreased by 1.88% [3]. - **Options**: The implied volatility of SR601C5500 is 0.0871, and that of SR601P5500 is 0.0824. The implied volatility of CF601C13400 is 0.1257, and that of CF601P13400 is 0.1181 [3]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 9793.0 to 9464.0, a change of - 3.36%. The number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 3583.0 to 3397.0, a change of - 5.19% [3]. Conclusion - Sugar: The growth of sugarcane in southern China is good, but the sugar production in some beet - producing areas is affected. The international sugar price is weakly fluctuating [2]. - Cotton: Cotton imports are lower than expected, and the new - season cotton growth is good. With the peak season approaching, cotton demand is expected to recover, and prices may rise [2]. Strategy Suggestion - It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2].