Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment rating for cotton is "Oscillating Upward" [1] - The investment rating for sugar is "Range-Bound with an Uptrend" [1] Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: On Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.41% to 68.84 cents per pound, and CF509 rose 2.19% to 14,250 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest increased by 19,226 lots to 587,600 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,316 yuan per ton, up 101 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,354 yuan per ton, up 82 yuan. Globally, the new - year cotton supply - demand is relatively loose, and the U.S. cotton inventory - to - sales ratio is high. In China, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price has moved up slightly, with the main contract's open interest increasing rapidly and the 9 - 1 and 9 - 11 spreads strengthening. Currently, low cotton inventory and short - term weather factors are driving the price, but the strong expectation of a cotton bumper harvest and limited short - term demand improvement will restrict the upside. In the short term, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price may still have some upside space and large volatility. Attention should be paid to the arbitrage space of the 09 contract. A strategy of selling high - priced out - of - the - money call options and buying low - priced out - of - the - money put options can be considered [1] - **Sugar**: In June 2025, China's refined sugar production was 337,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.6%, and the cumulative production from January to June was 9.404 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%. The spot quotes of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups and some processing sugar factories have minor adjustments. The raw sugar price rose due to the rumor of a U.S. cola formula change, but there is no obvious short - term market driver. In the domestic market, the domestic sugar price quotes are slightly loose, the trading volume is average, the processing sugar factories' operating rate is high, and the market is highly concerned about the June import data. The market is treated as range - bound with an uptrend [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread is 290, up 165; the main contract basis is 1,104, down 178. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,316 yuan per ton, up 101, and the national spot price is 15,354 yuan per ton, up 82 [2] - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread is 169, up 3; the main contract basis is 252, down 20. The Nanning spot price is 6,050 yuan per ton, unchanged, and the Liuzhou spot price is 6,080 yuan per ton, unchanged [2] 2. Market Information - **Cotton**: On July 17, the cotton futures warehouse receipts were 9,585, down 58 from the previous day, with 223 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: Xinjiang 15,316 yuan per ton, Henan 15,411 yuan per ton, Shandong 15,302 yuan per ton, and Zhejiang 15,617 yuan per ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 49.9, unchanged, the yarn comprehensive inventory was 30.1, down 0.1, the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 48.1, unchanged, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.8, unchanged [3] - **Sugar**: On July 17, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou were unchanged at 6,050 yuan per ton and 6,080 yuan per ton respectively. The sugar futures warehouse receipts were 21,857, down 432 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4] 3. Chart Analysis - There are multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, spread, warehouse receipts, and price index of the main contracts, showing the historical data trends from 2021 - 2025 [6][14] 4. Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry [19] - Zhang Linglu is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for futures varieties such as urea and soda ash glass [20] - Sun Chengzhen is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research on cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [21]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The cotton market is expected to be volatile. ICE US cotton rose 0.66% to 68.57 cents/pound on Tuesday, while CF509 decreased 0.36% to 13,850 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest dropped by 11,044 lots to 546,700 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang increased by 4 yuan/ton to 15,286 yuan/ton, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B rose by 7 yuan/ton to 15,302 yuan/ton. With the US CPI data in line with expectations and core CPI lower than expected, the market anticipates two interest rate cuts this year, with the next one likely in September. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price declined slightly, but the night session strengthened. The previous factors supporting the cotton price increase - weather and low inventory - have limited sustainability. With strong expectations of a new cotton harvest and no obvious improvement in demand, the cotton price may fluctuate in the short - term and gradually decline in the long - term [1]. - The sugar market is also expected to be volatile. In the second half of June, Brazil's central - southern region had a 12.86% year - on - year decrease in sugarcane crushing volume to 42.706 million tons, a decrease in ATR, an increase in the sugar - making ratio, and significant year - on - year decreases in ethanol and sugar production. Domestic sugar prices showed mixed trends, with some price adjustments. The Brazilian sugar production still has uncertainties, and the domestic sugar market has a large divergence between bulls and bears, with import pressure on the upside and basis and raw sugar support on the downside [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Cotton**: ICE US cotton rose 0.66%, CF509 fell 0.36%. The main contract's open interest decreased. Xinjiang cotton arrival price and the China Cotton Price Index increased. US CPI data met expectations, and the market anticipates interest rate cuts. Domestically, the futures price declined slightly during the day and strengthened at night. The factors supporting the price increase have limited sustainability, and the new cotton harvest is expected to be good with weak demand [1]. - **Sugar**: In the second half of June, Brazil's sugarcane crushing volume, ATR, ethanol, and sugar production decreased year - on - year, while the sugar - making ratio increased. Domestic sugar prices had different trends, with some adjustments. The Brazilian production is uncertain, and the domestic market has a large divergence between bulls and bears [1]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread was 30 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The main contract basis was 1452 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,286 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton, and the national spot price was 15,302 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton [2]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread was 173 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton. The main contract basis was 288 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The Nanning spot price was 6060 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Liuzhou spot price was 6090 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. Market Information - On July 15, the cotton futures warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 91 to 9716, with 223 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were reported, and the yarn and short - fiber cloth load and inventory data were also provided [3]. - On July 15, the sugar spot prices in Nanning were unchanged, and those in Liuzhou decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The sugar futures warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 114 to 22,602, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, spread, and warehouse receipt data of the main contracts, showing the historical trends from 2021 - 2025 [6][8][10][12][14][15]. Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry. He has won many awards in relevant analyst evaluations [19]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on urea, soda ash, and glass futures. She has won multiple honors [20]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys. He has won the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's textile product senior analyst title [21].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: On Monday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 1.02% to 68.11 cents per pound, and CF509 decreased 0.22% to 13,875 yuan per ton. The main - contract positions increased by 2,175 lots to 557,700 lots. The arrival price of cotton in Xinjiang was 15,282 yuan per ton, up 19 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index Grade 3128B was 15,295 yuan per ton, up 29 yuan. The USDA July report increased the global cotton production forecast by 311,000 tons, mainly from China and the U.S. The 2025/26 global cotton production is expected to exceed consumption, and there is still room for production increase. In the domestic market, the factors supporting the cotton price increase are not sustainable. The cotton planting area in Xinjiang increased by over 8% in 2025, and the weather is suitable with a high probability of a good harvest. Although the commercial inventory is low, there is no shortage worry due to sufficient state - reserve and potential quota increase. In the short - term, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price may rise, but the new - year's supply - demand pattern restricts the increase, and the 09 contract may perform better than the 01 [2]. - **Sugar**: The USDA reported that the U.S. 2025/26 sugar production is expected to be 9.195 million short tons, with beet sugar at 5.097 million short tons and cane sugar at 4.098 million short tons, and the inventory/consumption ratio is estimated at 13.5%. The spot sugar prices in Guangxi and Yunnan were stable, and some processing sugar mills raised the price by 10 yuan per ton. Brazilian bi - weekly sugar production was lower than expected, but the sugar price still declined due to concerns about future supply. In the domestic market, Yunnan and processing sugar sold well, but the concern about imported sugar pressure remained. The futures price rebounded and then followed the raw sugar decline, and it should be treated with a short - term oscillatory view, with attention to June import data [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: Analyzed international and domestic market conditions, including price changes, production forecasts, and supply - demand factors, and concluded that the short - term price may rise but is restricted by the new - year's supply - demand pattern [2]. - **Sugar**: Presented U.S. production forecasts, domestic and international price information, and supply - demand concerns, and suggested a short - term oscillatory view [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread was 60, down 5; the main - contract basis was 1,420, up 39; the Xinjiang spot price was 15,282, up 19, and the national spot price was 15,295, up 29 [3]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread was 184, up 7; the main - contract basis was 283, down 7; the Nanning spot price was 6,060, unchanged, and the Liuzhou spot price was 6,100, unchanged [3]. 3. Market Information - **Cotton**: On July 14, the cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 43 to 9,807, with 216 valid forecasts. The arrival prices in different regions were reported, and the yarn and short - fiber cloth load and inventory data were also provided [4]. - **Sugar**: On July 14, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou were unchanged, and the sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 28 to 22,716, with 0 valid forecasts [4][5]. 4. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts of cotton and sugar, including closing prices, basis, spreads, warehouse receipts, and price indices over different time periods, were presented, with data sources from Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [7][15]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, on Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.03% to 67.76 cents per pound, and CF509 rose 0.69% to 13,865 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract increased by 4,373 lots to 551,100 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,175 yuan per ton, up 12 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,196 yuan per ton, also up 12 yuan. The macro - level disturbance in the international market is limited, and the U.S. dollar index fluctuates between 97 - 98, with no directional drive for U.S. cotton. The market is waiting for the USDA July report, and there is an expectation of an increase in global cotton production including that of the U.S. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou cotton broke through the 13,900 yuan per ton mark, and its center of gravity is rising. Low imports and low inventories are the main supports, and positions are gradually increasing. Market sentiment is boosting the cotton price. In the future, a bumper harvest of new cotton is likely, and there is no concern about cotton shortage. The expectation of significant improvement in the demand side is weak. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton may still break through upwards, but considering the future supply - demand pattern, the upside space is limited, and short - selling on rallies can be considered at high prices [2]. - For sugar, the Philippine Sugar Regulatory Authority approved the import of 424,000 tons of reserve sugar from July to November 2025. The spot prices of sugar in some regions were adjusted upwards. Brazilian sugar maintains a high sugar - making ratio, but the output is lower year - on - year due to the quality of sugarcane, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level. Affected by the market sentiment rebound, sugar prices are also boosted. The short - term sugar price is seen as a rebound. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity to buy out - of - the - money put options and patiently wait for the 9 - 1 reverse spread opportunity [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 55 yuan, up 10 yuan; the main contract basis is 1,331 yuan, down 23 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang is 15,175 yuan per ton, up 12 yuan, and the national spot price is 15,196 yuan per ton, up 12 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 175 yuan, up 11 yuan; the main contract basis is 285 yuan, down 11 yuan. The spot price in Nanning is 6,050 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan, and in Liuzhou is 6,090 yuan per ton, up 15 yuan [3]. 2. Market Information - On July 10, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,882, a decrease of 50 from the previous trading day, with 244 valid forecasts [4]. - On July 10, the cotton arrival prices in different domestic regions were: 15,175 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,229 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,155 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,429 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [4]. - On July 10, the comprehensive load of yarn was 51.2, down 0.1 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 29.9, up 0.1; the comprehensive load of short - fiber cloth was 48.6, unchanged; and the comprehensive inventory of short - fiber cloth was 33.5, unchanged [4]. - On July 10, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 6,050 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day, and in Liuzhou was 6,090 yuan per ton, up 15 yuan [4]. - On July 10, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 22,934, a decrease of 53 from the previous trading day, with 106 valid forecasts [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts related to cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, contract spread, warehouse receipts, and price index of cotton, as well as the closing price, basis, contract spread, and warehouse receipts of sugar [7][15][18]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: On Wednesday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.5% to 67.72 cents per pound, and CF509 rose 0.51% to 13,830 yuan per ton, with the main - contract positions increasing by 3,515 to 546,800. In the international market, the overall drivers are limited recently, and the U.S. cotton planted area exceeds expectations with good growth. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou cotton showed a V - shaped trend and closed slightly higher. Considering low imports, low inventories, and weather disturbances on the one hand, and new - cotton high - yield expectations and weak demand during the off - season on the other hand, short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to remain range - bound, with the 09 contract likely to perform better than 01 [2]. - **Sugar**: Platts expects a 9.7% year - on - year decrease in sugarcane crushing in Brazil's central - southern region in the second half of June, and a 9.8% decrease in sugar production. In the domestic market, Yunnan sugar is accelerating inventory clearance. The spot price of sugar has some adjustments, and the futures price of raw sugar rebounded due to the expected decline in Brazil's bi - weekly production. The market should focus on the 9 - 1 reverse spread opportunity [2]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: The international market has limited drivers, with the U.S. cotton planted area exceeding expectations and good growth. The domestic market has both upward and downward drivers but with limited strength. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to range - bound, and the 09 contract may be better than 01 [2]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugarcane crushing and sugar production are expected to decline. In the domestic market, Yunnan sugar is clearing inventory, and attention should be paid to the 9 - 1 reverse spread opportunity [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 45 yuan, up 20 yuan; the main - contract basis is 1,354 yuan, down 54 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,163 yuan per ton, down 12 yuan, and the national spot price is 15,184 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 164 yuan, up 9 yuan; the main - contract basis is 296 yuan, down 37 yuan. The Nanning spot price is 6,040 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price is 6,075 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan [3]. 3. Market Information - **Cotton**: On July 9, the cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 39 to 9,932, and the effective forecasts were 266. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were reported, and the yarn and short - fiber cloth loads and inventories also had corresponding changes [4]. - **Sugar**: On July 9, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou changed, and the sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 105 to 22,987, with 106 effective forecasts [4][5]. 4. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including closing prices, basis, contract spreads, warehouse receipts, and price indices, with data from 2021 - 2025 [7][15]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided for the industry in the report Group 2: Core Views - Cotton is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. International market has limited overall drivers, with the US cotton sown area exceeding expectations and good growth conditions. In the domestic market, low imports, low inventory, and weather disturbances support cotton prices, while new - cotton harvest expectations and weak demand in the off - season limit upward movement [2]. - Sugar is expected to show a weak - oscillating trend. Brazilian sugar exports in the first week of July decreased by 34.63% year - on - year. The international raw sugar market lacks new drivers, and the domestic market is about to enter the imported - sugar - dominated stage with ample supply and weak price rebounds, but short - term basis support remains [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: On Tuesday, ICE US cotton fell 0.84% to 67.32 cents/pound, CF509 decreased 0.07% to 13785 yuan/ton, and the main - contract positions decreased by 617 to 543,200 hands. The Xinjiang cotton arrival price was 15175 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton, and the China Cotton Price Index 3128B was 15193 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton [2]. - **Sugar**: Brazil exported 677,300 tons of sugar and molasses in the first week of July, a 34.63% decrease year - on - year. The daily export volume was 169,300 tons. Domestic sugar - making groups and processing plants lowered their quotes. The international raw sugar market awaits macro guidance and northern - hemisphere yield estimates, and the domestic market is about to enter the imported - sugar - dominated stage [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 contract spread was 25 (unchanged), the main - contract basis was 1408 (down 33), the Xinjiang spot price was 15175 yuan/ton (down 1), and the national spot price was 15193 yuan/ton (down 8) [3]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 contract spread was 155 (down 5), the main - contract basis was 333 (down 3), the Nanning spot price was 6020 yuan/ton (down 20), and the Liuzhou spot price was 6080 yuan/ton (down 10) [3]. 3. Market Information - **Cotton**: On July 8, the cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 68 to 9971, with 282 valid forecasts. The yarn comprehensive load decreased by 0.1 to 51.3, and the inventory increased by 0.1 to 29.7. The short - fiber cloth comprehensive load decreased by 0.1 to 48.7, and the inventory increased by 0.1 to 33.5 [4]. - **Sugar**: On July 8, the Nanning sugar spot price was 6020 yuan/ton (down 20), the Liuzhou price was 6080 yuan/ton (down 10), the sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 312 to 23092, and there were 106 valid forecasts [4][5]. 4. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts for cotton and sugar are presented, including closing prices, basis, contract spreads, warehouse receipts, and price indices over different time periods, with data from Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [7][13][15][17]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, on July 8, 2025, ICE U.S. cotton decreased by 0.88% to 67.86 cents per pound, and CF509 fell by 0.22% to 13,760 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 2,264 lots to 543,900 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,176 yuan per ton, up 6 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,201 yuan per ton, up 1 yuan. The international market is affected by macro - level disturbances, with the U.S. cotton price falling after the holiday. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton futures price is mainly range - bound with limited upward drive. The previous drivers of the upward trend were low inventory and weather disturbances, but now there is a strong expectation of a good cotton harvest, and the operating load of downstream textile enterprises is relatively low. It is expected that the commercial cotton inventory at the end of September will be relatively healthy, and the cotton price lacks continuous upward drive. Overall, the short - term cotton price is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to macro and weather disturbances [1]. - For sugar, Brazil exported 3.3618 million tons of sugar and molasses in June 2025, an increase of 157,300 tons or 4.91% compared to the same period last year. The spot price of sugar in Guangxi decreased by 20 - 30 yuan per ton, and in Yunnan by 10 yuan per ton. The mainstream quotation of sugar refineries also decreased. Brazil's sugar exports remained high in June, and China is one of the important buyers. It is expected that China's sugar imports will remain high in July and August. With the arrival of imported sugar, the spot sugar price is under slight pressure. More attention should be paid to the quotation of refined sugar, which will have a greater influence in the future. The main futures contract is currently considered to be in a weak - range - bound situation, but it is not recommended to continue to short the far - month contracts [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 0 (unchanged), the main contract basis is 1,441 yuan (up 21 yuan). The arrival price in Xinjiang is 15,176 yuan per ton (up 6 yuan), and the national price is 15,201 yuan per ton (up 1 yuan) [2]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 160 yuan (down 22 yuan), the main contract basis is 336 yuan (down 5 yuan). The spot price in Nanning is 6,040 yuan per ton (down 20 yuan), and in Liuzhou is 6,090 yuan per ton (down 20 yuan) [2]. 2. Market Information - **Cotton**: On July 7, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 10,039 (down 28), and the valid forecast was 260. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: Xinjiang 15,176 yuan per ton, Henan 15,273 yuan per ton, Shandong 15,172 yuan per ton, and Zhejiang 15,420 yuan per ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 51.4 (down 0.4), the yarn comprehensive inventory was 29.6 (up 0.6), the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 48.8 (unchanged), and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.4 (up 0.1) [3]. - **Sugar**: On July 7, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 6,040 yuan per ton (down 20 yuan), and in Liuzhou was 6,090 yuan per ton (down 20 yuan). The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 23,404 (down 20), and the valid forecast was 106 [3][4]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price of the main contract, the basis of the main contract, the 9 - 1 spread, the internal - external price difference under the 1% tariff quota, the number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the price index [6][9][11][14][17].

光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 7 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四，ICE 美棉下跌 0.29%，报收 69.43 美分/磅，CF509 环比持平，报收 13785 元 | | | | /吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 10792 手至 54.97 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 15171 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 35 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 15203 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日上涨 40 元/吨。国际市场方面，宏观层面事件较多，6 月美国非农人口 14.7 | | | 棉花 | 万人，超过市场预期，美元指数走强，美棉价格承压下行。国内市场方面，近期 | 震荡 | | | 郑棉期价以区间震荡为主，上下方破局动力均有限。天气扰动略有升温迹象，新 | | | | 疆部分地区有恶劣天气影响，但本年度整体天气状况良好，丰产预期较强，下游 | | | | 纺织企业开机负荷弱稳，产成品库存累积。整体来看，基本面驱动有限，短期仍 | | | | 以震荡看待。 | | | | 消息方面，云南 6 月当月销 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Cotton**: On Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.64% to close at 68.76 cents per pound, and CF509 rose 0.77% to close at 13,720 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract increased by 24,084 lots to 584,200 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 14,957 yuan per ton, up 125 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,020 yuan per ton, up 82 yuan from the previous day. In the international market, the macro - level remains the focus, with the U.S. dollar index oscillating weakly, providing some support for U.S. cotton prices, but the fundamental driving force is limited. In the domestic market, the center of the Zhengzhou cotton futures price has oscillated upward, and the position of the main contract has continued to increase. Fundamentally, low inventory is a supporting factor, and the weather in Xinjiang in mid - June had some disturbances, supporting cotton prices. In the short term, the macro - sentiment has heated up, and the fundamental support has strengthened. The center of the Zhengzhou cotton price may continue to move up slightly, but the upside space is expected to be relatively limited due to the expected high yield of new cotton. Attention should be paid to macro and weather changes [1]. - **Sugar**: From August 1, 2025, the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline will be increased from the current 27% to 30%, and the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel will be increased from the current 14% to 15%. The spot quotes of Guangxi sugar - making groups are 6,030 - 6,110 yuan per ton, up 20 - 40 yuan per ton; those of Yunnan sugar - making groups are 5,810 - 5,850 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan per ton. Regarding raw sugar, the increase in the Brazilian ethanol blending ratio is attracting attention, which can be seen as a way to digest the increased sugarcane production and support the bottom price, but it does not have a strong boosting effect under the high - yield environment with limited conversion volume. In the domestic market, raw sugar is moving sideways, the domestic spot quotes are rising, the group inventory pressure is not large, and there is some inventory in the trading sector. In the short term, it will continue the small - scale rebound driven by basis repair [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 55, up 35; the main basis is 1,300, up 7. The Xinjiang spot price is 14,957 yuan per ton, up 125 yuan, and the national spot price is 15,020 yuan per ton, up 82 yuan [2]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 184, up 18; the main basis is 310, up 2. The Nanning spot price is 6,080 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price is 6,100 yuan per ton, up 35 yuan [2]. 3.2 Market Information - **Cotton**: On June 26, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 10,334, down 45 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 295. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 14,957 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,050 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,023 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,268 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The yarn comprehensive load was 53.1, down 0.2 from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 27.7, up 0.3 from the previous day; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 49.1, unchanged from the previous day; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.3, unchanged from the previous day [3]. - **Sugar**: On June 26, the Nanning spot price of sugar was 6,080 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day, and the Liuzhou spot price was 6,100 yuan per ton, up 35 yuan from the previous day. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 24,302, down 310 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 0 [3][4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price of the main contract, the basis of the main contract, the contract spread, the warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, etc., with data sources from Wind and the Guangda Futures Research Institute [6][14][16]

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 6 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周四，ICE 美棉因六月节放假休市，CF509 下跌 0.15%，报收 13525 元/吨，主力合 | 震荡 | | | 约持仓环比下降 7510 手至 52.59 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14775 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日上涨 19 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14891 元/吨，较前一日上涨 34 | | | | 元/吨。国内市场方面，近期郑棉期价整体维持震荡走势。基本面来看，当前国内 | | | | 陈棉库存处于近年来同期偏低水平，但短期也无库存短缺担忧，新棉丰产预期较 | | | | 强。下游需求表现相对偏弱，纺织企业开机负荷环比小幅下降，库存水平在持续累 | | | | 积，基本面驱动有限。综合来看，预计短期郑棉仍区间震荡运行为主，关注宏观与 | | | | 下游需求变化。 | | | 白糖 | 消息方面，印度乙醇汽油混合（EBP）计划中取得重大进展，2025 年 5 月的醇汽油 | 弱势震 | | | ...