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技术分析系列:双维框架研究之动能驱动与风险管控
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-05 13:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the financial products industry [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of momentum-driven technical analysis and risk management in the financial products sector, highlighting the dual framework of momentum and risk control [1][2]. Summary by Sections 1. Momentum-Driven Technical Analysis - The report discusses the momentum effect, indicating that assets generally exhibit a certain degree of trend persistence in the short term [13]. - Moving averages (MA) are defined as a key indicator for assessing momentum, helping to smooth price fluctuations and identify potential trends [14][15]. - The report categorizes moving averages into short-term, medium-term, and long-term, each serving different market analysis needs [16]. - The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is introduced as a significant technical analysis tool, consisting of the DIF line, DEA line, and MACD histogram, which helps investors grasp market trends [25][26]. - The report also covers the JAX (Jian Line) indicator, which combines price and volume data to assess medium to long-term trends and trading opportunities [34][35]. 2. Risk Management - The report introduces the Risk Degree Indicator (TR), which evaluates the relative position of assets in terms of risk, considering both spatial and temporal dimensions [45]. - The TR indicator operates within a normal range of 0 to 100, with higher values indicating increased investment risk and lower values suggesting reduced risk [50]. - Statistical analysis shows that the TR indicator effectively identifies local tops and bottoms in the A-share market, with a 45.74% probability of local lows occurring when TR is below 20 [50][51]. 3. Risk Trend Model - The report outlines a risk trend model that incorporates both momentum and risk dimensions to score assets, aiding in the development of timing strategies [44][49]. - It emphasizes the need for dynamic adjustments in parameters based on market conditions to enhance the accuracy of the JAX indicator [41][42]. 4. Timing Strategies - The report suggests constructing timing strategies based on historical data, with a focus on both periodic and non-periodic models to improve predictive effectiveness [44][49].
信披延迟踩红线 赤峰黄金收警示函
信披延迟踩红线 赤峰黄金收警示函 本报记者 马宇薇 3月25日,赤峰吉隆黄金矿业股份有限公司(以下简称"赤峰黄金")发布公告称,公司于3月24日收到中 国证券监督管理委员会内蒙古监管局(以下简称"内蒙古证监局")出具的《关于对赤峰吉隆黄金矿业股 份有限公司及相关责任人员采取出具警示函措施的决定》(以下简称"《决定书》")。 《决定书》显示,赤峰黄金全资子公司吉林瀚丰矿业科技有限公司2023年一季度因生产设施改造停产两 个月,赤峰黄金未及时进行信息披露,迟至2023年4月30日在2023年第一季度报告中披露。上述行为违 反了《上市公司信息披露管理办法》相关规定。公司董事长王建华、总经理杨宜方、董事会秘书董淑宝 未按照相关规定履行勤勉尽责义务,对上述行为负有主要责任。根据《上市公司信息披露管理办法》第 五十二条规定,内蒙古证监局决定对赤峰黄金及上述责任人采取出具警示函的行政监管措施,并记入证 券期货市场诚信档案。 上海久诚律师事务所律师许峰在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示:"赤峰黄金此次信息披露违规相对 比较轻微,虽然这类操作性问题与财务造假等虚假陈述问题相比存在明显区别,但仍反映出公司在信息 披露管理方面存在提 ...