Core Insights - The implementation of a series of incremental and stock policies since September 26 last year has led to a steady recovery in both invoice sales and tax revenue, indicating a positive trend in China's economy [1][2][6] Group 1: Tax Revenue and Economic Indicators - The growth rate of value-added tax invoice sales and tax revenue has shown a steady recovery, reflecting an improving economic operation. From Q3 of last year to Q3 of this year, the quarterly sales revenue growth rates for enterprises were 0.4%, 2.6%, 2.1%, 3.1%, and 4.4% respectively [2] - Tax revenue has turned positive after seven months of negative growth, with a cumulative increase in tax revenue since February this year, showing month-on-month improvement [2] - In Q3, particularly in September, tax revenue growth was notably high, influenced by a narrowing decline in PPI and a low base from the previous year [2] Group 2: Capital Market Performance - Tax revenue related to the capital market has maintained a high growth rate, reflecting active stock market trading. In August, the total market value of A-share companies surpassed 100 trillion yuan, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten-year high in September [3] - The tax revenue from capital market services increased by 56.8% year-on-year, with securities transaction stamp duty rising by 110.5% [3] - Personal income tax related to stock transfers and dividends also saw significant increases, contributing to a 9.3% year-on-year growth in personal income tax [3] Group 3: Industry and Sector Performance - Major industries and tax categories have shown stable growth, indicating improved business operations and profitability. The manufacturing sector's tax revenue grew by 5.4% year-on-year, accounting for 31% of total tax revenue [4] - High-end manufacturing sectors, such as railway and aerospace, experienced tax revenue growth of 31.5%, while emerging industries like information technology services saw tax revenue increases of 15.3% [4] - Domestic value-added tax grew by 3.2% year-on-year, and corporate income tax increased by 4.1%, reflecting improved profitability in certain sectors [4] Group 4: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The decline in tax revenue related to the real estate sector has narrowed, indicating the effectiveness of policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market. The tax revenue from the real estate sector decreased by 9.8% year-on-year, but the decline was less than 5% when accounting for tax incentives [5] - The government has implemented tax reduction measures totaling nearly 80 billion yuan to lower housing transaction costs, contributing to market stabilization [5] Group 5: Consumer Activity and Equipment Upgrades - Nationwide enterprise equipment upgrades have accelerated, supported by policies promoting the replacement of old consumer goods. The procurement of machinery and equipment by enterprises increased by 9.7% year-on-year, with high-tech manufacturing seeing an 11.8% increase [5] - Retail sales of household appliances, such as refrigerators and televisions, experienced significant growth, with increases of 55.4% and 35.3% respectively [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Domestic consumption market shows strong resilience during the "Double Festival" holiday, with cross - regional personnel flow hitting a record high. A - shares may experience increased short - term volatility but have a long - term positive trend. The bond market in the fourth quarter is likely to be in a moderately strong and volatile pattern [2][3] - In the fourth quarter, the probability of incremental holistic counter - cyclical adjustment policies is low, with more focus on structural policies [3] - The impact of the stock - bond seesaw on the bond market is complex, and the bond market's mid - term trend is moderately strong with oscillations and no obvious trend [3] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock - bond seesaw logic and ample liquidity make bond market operations difficult. The 30 - year treasury bond shows obvious oscillation at the key neckline position [9] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - From January to August, the added value of industrial SMEs above designated size increased by 7.6% year - on - year, 3.3 percentage points higher than large enterprises. The SME export index in August was 51.9%, remaining in the expansion range for 17 consecutive months [12][15] - China's rare - earth export control is not a ban, and applications that meet the regulations will be approved. China opposes the US plan to impose a 100% tariff [12][15] - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 1.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 98.3%. In December, the probability of a 50 - basis - point cumulative cut is 91.7% [14] - US Vice - President Vance signaled a willingness for rational negotiation between Trump and China [14] - In September, the central bank's SLF net investment was 1.9 billion yuan, MLF net investment was 300 billion yuan, PSL net withdrawal was 88.3 billion yuan, short - term reverse repurchase net investment was 390.2 billion yuan, and outright reverse repurchase net investment was 300 billion yuan [14] - The US added multiple Chinese entities to the export control "Entity List", and China firmly opposes this [14] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - The economic endogenous power is strengthening, and the downward pressure is weakening. If counter - cyclical adjustment continues to increase, it will be negative for the bond market [15] 3.2 Policy Aspects - In August, the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 2.8%, the lowest since June 2021. The growth rate of social financing stock increased slightly, and the narrowing gap indicates strengthened economic activities [17] 3.3 Capital Aspects - DR007 has been declining since July 25, reducing capital costs. The central bank will maintain ample liquidity, and the Fed's rate cut may open space for domestic monetary policy [20] 3.4 Supply - Demand Aspects - The third - batch of consumer goods trade - in funds will be allocated in July. The special treasury bond funds for equipment renewal are 200 billion yuan, and the issuance of special bonds has accelerated [23] 3.5 Sentiment Aspects - The stock - bond ratio has broken through the short - term oscillation range, indicating increased market attention to stocks. The long - term bonds are more affected by the stock - bond seesaw [25] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - A - shares may have increased short - term volatility but a long - term positive trend. The bond market in the fourth quarter is expected to be moderately strong with oscillations [28]

据中国人民银行（以下简称央行）官网消息，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年10月9日， 央行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重 价位中标方式开展11000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（91天）。 10月9日，中国人民银行还以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了6120亿元7天期逆回购操作，投标量6120亿元，中标量6120亿元，操作 利率1.40%，与此前持平。据Wind数据，当日逆回购到期量高达20633亿元。 | 期限 | 操作利率 | 投标量 | 中标量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 7天 | 1.40% | 6120亿元 | 6120亿元 | 市场分析认为，此举旨在应对资金面收紧压力，稳定市场预期。综合来看，10月政府债券还会进行较大规模发行；9月29日，国家发 展改革委宣布，当前正在加快推进5000亿元新型政策性金融工具相关工作，预计接下来会较大幅度拉动配套贷款投放。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青称，10月将有8000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购到期，由此央行10月9日开展11000亿元买断式逆回购操 作，意味着10月3个月期买断式逆回购加量续作3000亿元。此外，10月还有500 ...

从最新数据来看，前8个月，固定资产投资累计同比降至0.5%，其中基建投资（不含电力）累计同比下 降至2.0%，已连续四个月环比逐月下降；8月份，70个大中城市中，各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比下 降；8月份，全国居民消费价格同比下降0.4%，全国工业生产者出厂价格同比下降2.9%。 展望四季度，宏观政策将坚持"稳中求进"总基调，财政政策与货币政策协同发力，重点在于提升政策效 能与市场预期。 当前，中国经济正处于转型升级的关键期，短期波动不改长期向好基本面。四季度是全年经济收官的冲 刺阶段，更是政策发力的重要窗口期。《证券日报》记者采访了多位业内人士，深入剖析四季度宏观经 济走势，精准探寻政策发力点。 广开首席产业研究院院长兼首席经济学家连平认为，为推动经济平稳增长，保障实现年初确定的预期目 标，四季度需尽快完善、下达"两重"建设和中央预算内投资项目清单，加快地方专项债、一般国债、超 长期特别国债等的发行与资金落地，尽快形成扩大内需的实际政策效果。 货币政策方面，伍超明预计或将保持连续性、稳定性，维持宽松基调和流动性充裕状况不变；但面对银 行息差压力、居民存款收益下降、政策效果不佳等制约，加之经济循环改善、物价回 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article presents six policy recommendations aimed at promoting stable economic growth and addressing current economic challenges, including limited domestic demand, structural overcapacity, deflationary pressures, and unstable expectations [1][4][8]. Group 1: Policy Recommendations - Recommendation 1: Advance the government investment and financing quotas for the next year to utilize fiscal resources effectively, with an expected increase in local special bond quotas to over 4.5 trillion yuan, suggesting an early allocation of 1.5-2 trillion yuan [9][10]. - Recommendation 2: Continue to release positive signals through monetary policy, potentially lowering the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% and interest rates by 0.2% in the fourth quarter, while considering the resumption of government bond purchases [11][12]. - Recommendation 3: Lower the operational thresholds for two monetary policy tools supporting the capital market and standardize the operations of the Central Huijin Investment Company [12][13]. - Recommendation 4: Further reduce mortgage rates and optimize personal housing tax policies, including a suggested 25 basis point reduction in long-term housing provident fund loan rates [14][15]. - Recommendation 5: Increase the consumption subsidy for replacing old goods by 100 billion yuan and expand the subsidy scope to include various consumer goods [16][17]. - Recommendation 6: Strengthen fiscal and financial support, optimize tax refund services, enhance trade facilitation, and provide assistance to foreign trade enterprises and unemployed individuals [18][19][20]. Group 2: Economic Challenges - Domestic demand remains limited, with fixed asset investment growth slowing to 0.5% year-on-year from January to August, and infrastructure investment declining by 2.0% [4][5]. - The real estate market continues to face challenges, with a year-on-year drop in national commercial housing sales area of 11% in August, and real estate investment down by 12.9% from January to August [5][6]. - Credit growth is notably weak, with a decrease in credit balance for the first time since 2005, and new credit issuance in August at 590 billion yuan, below last year's already low levels [6][7]. - Deflationary pressures persist, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) falling to -0.4% year-on-year in August, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) at -2.9% [7].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support high-quality economic development and create a favorable financial environment for economic recovery [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The meeting highlighted the effectiveness of the loan market quotation rate reform and the market-oriented adjustment mechanism for deposit rates, which have enhanced the efficiency of monetary policy transmission [1] - It was noted that social financing costs are at historically low levels, contributing to a stable operation of the financial market [1] Group 2: Economic Analysis - The analysis of domestic and international economic conditions indicates that China's economy is progressing steadily, with improved social confidence and new achievements in high-quality development [1] - However, challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low price levels remain, necessitating the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and enhanced counter-cyclical adjustments [1] Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Directions - The meeting proposed strengthening monetary policy regulation with increased foresight, targeting, and effectiveness, aligning policy implementation with economic growth and price level expectations [2] - It emphasized maintaining ample liquidity and guiding financial institutions to increase credit supply, ensuring that the growth of social financing and money supply matches economic growth [2] - The need to strengthen the central bank's policy interest rate guidance and improve the market-based interest rate formation transmission mechanism was also highlighted [2]

会议研究了下阶段货币政策主要思路，建议加强货币政策调控，提高前瞻性、针对性、有效性，根据国 内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度和节奏，抓好各项货币政策措施执行， 充分释放政策效应。保持流动性充裕，引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度，使社会融资规模、货币供 应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。强化央行政策利率引导，完善市场化利率形成传导 机制，发挥市场利率定价自律机制作用，加强利率政策执行和监督。推动社会综合融资成本下降。从宏 观审慎的角度观察、评估债市运行情况，关注长期收益率的变化。 会议分析了国内外经济金融形势，认为我国经济运行稳中有进，社会信心持续提振，高质量发展取得新 成效，但仍面临国内需求不足、物价低位运行等困难和挑战。要落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，加强逆 周期调节，更好发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功能，加大货币财政政策协同配合，促进经济稳定 增长和物价处于合理水平。 本报北京9月30日电(记者徐佩玉)中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第三季度例会日前召开。会议认 为，今年以来宏观调控力度加大，货币政策适度宽松，持续发力、适时加力，强化逆周期调节，综合运 用多种货币 ...

Group 1: Economic Environment - The current international situation is characterized by "four certainties" and "three uncertainties" impacting global capital flows and China's economic structure [2] - Domestic demand remains weak, with structural overcapacity and deflationary pressures posing significant challenges [2] - Infrastructure investment growth has declined, with fixed asset investment from January to August showing a year-on-year increase of only 0.5% [2] Group 2: Real Estate Market - The real estate market continues to face declining sales, with August seeing a year-on-year drop in sales area of 11%, marking a 2.6 percentage point increase in the decline compared to July [3] - Real estate investment from January to August has decreased by 12.9% year-on-year, the second-largest decline since February 2020 [4] - The financial situation of real estate companies is weakening, with funding down by 8% year-on-year in the first eight months [4] Group 3: Credit and Financing - Credit growth is notably weak, with July seeing a reduction of 500 billion yuan, the first decline since July 2005 [4] - New credit in August was only 590 billion yuan, significantly lower than the previous year [4] - The total new credit from January to August was 1.34 trillion yuan, the lowest level in five years [4] Group 4: Inflation and Deflation - Current deflationary pressures are significant, with the CPI falling to -0.4% in August, and PPI at -2.9% [5] - Core CPI showed a slight recovery, but overall consumer price levels indicate weak consumer sentiment [5] Group 5: Policy Recommendations - Recommendations include early allocation of government investment quotas and accelerating the issuance of local government bonds to stimulate demand [5][6] - Monetary policy should continue to signal positivity, with suggestions for a 0.5% reserve requirement ratio cut and a 0.2% interest rate reduction [6] - Support for the capital market through lowering operational thresholds for monetary policy tools and enhancing liquidity for financial institutions is advised [7][8] Group 6: Housing Market Support - Recommendations for lowering mortgage rates and optimizing housing tax policies to stimulate demand in the real estate sector [9][10] - The "white list" credit arrangement has reached approximately 8.5 trillion yuan, aimed at stabilizing existing debt rather than directly funding new projects [10] Group 7: Consumer Spending and Trade - Proposals to increase subsidies for consumer goods and enhance support for service consumption and elderly care financing [11][12] - Recommendations for improving trade facilitation and supporting foreign trade enterprises affected by international market conditions [13][14]

Market Overview - On September 30, 2025, significant intraday fluctuations were observed in the government bond futures market, with all contract maturities rebounding sharply by midday after a cautious opening [1][3] - The 30-year main contract experienced notable volatility, initially dropping by 0.30% before closing up 0.07%, indicating intense long-short competition in the long-end segment [3] Policy Drivers - The fluctuations in government bond futures were primarily driven by multiple positive signals from the policy front, with the People's Bank of China (PBOC) injecting stability into market expectations through precise liquidity provision [4] - On September 30, the PBOC conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, injecting 242.2 billion yuan into the market, which alleviated seasonal funding pressures [4][5] - The PBOC's third-quarter monetary policy meeting emphasized "promoting stable economic growth" and maintaining ample liquidity, indicating a shift in policy tone from "maintaining" to "promoting" [5][7] Economic Data Impact - The release of the manufacturing PMI data for September, which rose to 49.8%, played a crucial role in influencing market sentiment, reflecting a "weak recovery" in the economy [9][11] - The production index increased to 51.9%, indicating expansion, while the new orders index remained below the threshold, highlighting persistent demand weakness [12][13] Fund Allocation Demand - The concentrated entry of allocation-type funds, particularly from insurance capital, was a key driver behind the price increase in government bonds [14][15] - The 30-year government bond ETF saw significant inflows, with its scale reaching 18.608 billion yuan, reflecting strong demand for long-duration assets [16][19] International Market Transmission Effects - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points on September 17, 2025, has influenced global financial markets, leading to a narrowing of the interest rate differential between China and the U.S. [18][20] - The weakening of the U.S. dollar and stabilization of the Chinese yuan have created a favorable environment for foreign capital to flow back into Chinese assets [20][21] Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current government bond futures market is in a balancing phase, with a likelihood of 10-year bond yields remaining within the 1.7%-1.9% range, supported by weak economic fundamentals and expectations of liquidity easing [24][26] - Investors are advised to adopt a defensive and diversified strategy, closely monitoring signals from the Federal Reserve and domestic government bond issuance [27][28]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need for a proactive monetary policy to promote stable economic growth and maintain reasonable price levels, reflecting a more nuanced understanding of the current economic challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Direction - The PBOC's recent meeting indicates a shift from "maintaining" to "promoting" economic stability, highlighting a more active approach to monetary policy [1][2]. - The meeting introduced a new requirement to "ensure the effective implementation of various monetary policy measures," indicating a focus on the execution of existing tools [2][3]. Group 2: Structural Monetary Policy Tools - The meeting reiterated the importance of structural monetary policy tools, particularly in supporting small and micro enterprises and stabilizing foreign trade [4]. - The emphasis on financing support for key areas such as technology innovation, consumption, and small businesses is crucial, especially in light of potential impacts from U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The expectation for the fourth quarter is to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy stance, with decisions on rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio adjustments to be based on comprehensive assessments of economic performance and external conditions [4].