Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia will maintain a tight monetary policy for an extended period to restore inflation to target levels by 2026 [1] Group 1 - The Central Bank of Russia aims to bring inflation back to target levels by 2026 [1] - A prolonged period of tight monetary policy is expected as part of this strategy [1]

奥地利央行预测奥地利2025年的通胀率为3.0%，明年为1.8%，但警告其预测存在"较高的风险"，原因 是"不稳定"的美国关税政策。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. trade deficit significantly narrowed to $61.6 billion in April 2025, the lowest since September 2023, down from $138.3 billion in March [2] - A major reason for the reduction in the trade deficit was a notable decline in the value of U.S. imports, which fell by 16.3% month-over-month to $351 billion [2] - The decline in imports may indicate weakening demand expectations, which is not a positive sign for economic outlook [4] Group 2 - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. increased by 8,000 to 247,000, the highest since October 2024, reflecting signs of a softening job market amid uncertainty from tariff policies [4] - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 was reported at 48.5, indicating economic contraction as it remains below the neutral level of 50 [4] - The annualized core inflation rate in April 2025 was steady at 2.8%, but the impact of tariff policies may lead to rising consumer price indices, complicating future inflation targets [4] Group 3 - The European Central Bank announced a 25 basis point rate cut on June 5, signaling the potential end of its monetary policy cycle, which contrasts with the U.S. Federal Reserve's stance [5] - Despite more rate cuts in the Eurozone, the euro remains strong against the dollar, reflecting concerns about the U.S. economic outlook [5] Group 4 - U.S. stock indices weakened on June 5, with economic performance being a significant drag on market performance [7] - Tesla's stock dropped 14.26% due to escalating tensions between Elon Musk and Donald Trump, resulting in a market cap loss of over $150 billion [7] - Lululemon's first-quarter earnings exceeded expectations, but the outlook was negatively impacted by tariff policies, leading to a 22.37% drop in stock price post-earnings [8]

阿根廷央行市场预期调查显示，阿根廷2025年底通胀率预计为28.6%，较先前预测下降3.2个百分点。 ...

当前，欧元区的通胀水平可以支持欧洲央行此次的降息决定。欧盟统计局最新公布的数据显示，欧元区 5月调和消费者价格指数(HICP)同比增长1.9%，较4月时的2.2%进一步下降，同时也是今年首次低于欧 洲央行设定的2%通胀目标。 与此同时，剔除能源、食品、烟草和酒类的欧元区5月核心HICP从4月的2.7%大幅下降至5月的2.3%。服 务业通胀水平也从4月的4%明显下降至5月的3.2%。 北京时间6月5日晚，欧洲央行召开6月货币政策会议，宣布降息25个基点，存款机制利率、主要再融资 利率和边际借贷利率分别下降至2.00%、2.15%和2.40%，符合市场预期。这是欧洲央行自2024年6月宣 布降息以来第八次下调利率。 欧洲央行在货币政策声明中表示，决心要确保通胀率持续稳定在2%的中期目标水平，尤其是在当前这 种不确定性异常突出的情况下。欧洲央行将采取基于数据且逐次会议决定的方式，来确定适当的货币政 策立场。同时，欧洲央行表示，不会预先承诺特定的利率路径。 尽管欧元区一直面临着美国特朗普政府的关税威胁，但总体而言，当前欧元区的经济仍相对稳健。数据 显示，欧元区5月综合采购经理人指数(PMI)终值为50.2，略高于50 ...

同时将主要再融资利率从2.4%下调至 2.15%，边际贷款利率从2.65%下调至2.4%，均符合市场预期。 | ं | 欧元区欧洲央行边际贷款利率 | ★★★ | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.65% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ੋ | 欧元区欧洲央行主要再融资利率 | ★★★ | 2.15% | 2.15% | 2.4% | | ं | 欧元区欧洲央行存款便利利率 | ★★★ | 2% | 2% | 2.25% | 此外，欧央行坚持其对未来利率路径的措辞，欧央行表示，决心确保通胀率持续稳定在2%，管理委员会 准备好调整所有工具。 关税影响方面，欧央行表示，贸易政策不确定性将影响投资和出口，贸易升级将导致经济增长和通胀放 缓。 欧洲央行利率决议公布后，欧元兑美元EUR/USD短线快速上升后回落，报1.1416。 通胀率跌破2%、经济遭受关税威胁 本周的数据显示，欧元区5月份通胀率降至1.9%，为8个月来首次跌破2%，也是2021 年以来第二次跌破 2%。经济放缓的原因是服务业价格涨幅放缓，工资增长也有所降温，这支持工资增长在赶上通胀后将会 放缓的观点。 ...

欧洲央行行长拉加德：欧洲央行几乎一致通过了这一决定。 一名委员会成员不支持决定。 不排除进一步上修经济增长。 所有迹象表明通胀率将稳定在2%。 完全决心完成欧洲央行行长任期。 ...

预计2025年核心CPI增速为2.4%，此前预计为2.2%。 预计2026年核心CPI增速为1.9%，此前预计为 2.0%。 预计2027年核心CPI增速为1.9%，此前预计为1.9%。 欧洲央行：预计2025年通胀率为2%，此前预测为2.3%。 预计2026年通胀率为1.6%，此前预测为1.9%。 预计2027年通胀率为2%，此前预测为2%。 ...

Core Insights - The inflation rate in the Philippines dropped to 1.3% in May, the lowest level since December 2019 [1][2] - The average inflation rate for the first five months of the year is 1.9%, below the government's target range of 2% to 4% [1][2] Inflation Details - The decline in inflation is attributed to slower price increases in housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels, which decreased from 2.9% to 2.3% [1] - The price increase for food and accommodation services fell from 2.3% to 2.0% [1] - Transportation prices saw a larger decline, with a drop from 2.1% to 2.4% [1] Core Inflation - The core inflation rate, excluding food and energy prices, remained at 2.2%, but is lower than the 3.1% recorded in the same month last year [2] - The May inflation rate fell within the central bank's forecast range of 0.9% to 1.7% [2] Monetary Policy Implications - The slowdown in inflation led the central bank to lower the key policy rate by 25 basis points in April [2] - The central bank governor indicated the possibility of at least two more rate cuts within the year [2]

麦克勒姆直言："美国发起的贸易摩擦仍是加拿大经济面临的最大逆风。"他表示，自加央行4月中旬作 出维持政策利率的决定以来，美国政府不断增减各种关税。剧烈的金融动荡现有所缓和，但贸易谈判的 结果仍高度不确定，关税远高于今年年初水平，新的贸易行动还可能出现。最近美国进一步提高钢铝关 税，凸显了其贸易政策的不可预测性。 加央行认为，加拿大今年首季度国内生产总值(GDP)增长2.2%，略高于加央行预测，但GDP增长构成基 本符合预期。尽管消费者信心大幅下滑，消费仍保持增长。劳动力市场，尤其是贸易密集型行业呈现疲 态，失业率已升至6.9%。预计加拿大第二季度经济将大幅疲软。 在加联邦政府取消消费者碳税的背景下，加拿大4月份通胀率降至1.7%。但若扣除税收因素，通胀率上 涨2.3%，略高于加央行预期。核心通胀指标及其他潜在通胀指标均有所上升。 中新社多伦多6月4日电(记者余瑞冬)加拿大央行4日宣布，基于当前不确定性依然很高，决定维持基准 利率(即隔夜拆借利率)在2.75%不变。 加央行行长麦克勒姆在渥太华对媒体表示，加拿大经济有所疲软，但并未大幅减弱。近期通胀数据也呈 现出一定程度的坚挺。 加央行表示，将继续关注加拿大经济 ...