墨西哥央行将隔夜利率从8.50%下调至8.00%，删除关于未来将降息的前瞻指引里。 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-06-26 以伊冲突生效，北约发表联合宣言 市场分析 国内5月经济仍待夯实。5月国内数据好坏参半，5月投资数据整体走弱，尤其是地产边际压力再增，后续或将拖累 财政收入，及整个地产链条；同时出口也略有承压，5月"抢出口"成色一般，叠加美国5月零售销售走弱，前期需 求透支下，后续外需预计将承压；5月仅有消费表现韧性，6月20日新华社发布后续以旧换新国补将继续下达。6月 24日，央行等六部门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》。6月25日央行开展3000亿元MLF操作， 6月中期流动性净投放总额已达3180亿元。面对关税下的外需压力和内部的稳增长诉求，关注财政进一步加码的可 能。6月9-10日，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国伦敦举行，落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经 贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。关于7月9日到期的关税延后政策，6 月12日特朗普政府首次公开承认其关税时间表存在灵活性。美国暂缓关税的截止日逼近，欧盟准备采取更多关税 反制措施以对美施压；加拿大与美国力争在30天内达成贸易协议，两国贸易谈判代表们本周将会面三次。 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is openly criticizing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and is considering potential candidates to replace him, indicating dissatisfaction with Powell's performance and monetary policy decisions [1][2]. Group 1: Trump's Criticism of Powell - Trump has labeled Powell as "very stupid" and "ordinary," expressing his belief that Powell's intelligence is low and that he has been ineffective in his role [1]. - Trump has previously threatened to dismiss Powell and has urged the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates significantly, suggesting a reduction of 250 basis points [1][2]. - Analysts view Trump's comments as an attempt to influence monetary policy through a "shadow Fed chair" approach, challenging the traditional view that a Fed chair cannot be dismissed for reasons other than misconduct [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Stance on Interest Rates - Powell and other Fed officials anticipate a rise in inflation soon, which is causing hesitation in lowering borrowing costs [3]. - The Federal Reserve has maintained its policy interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, while keeping the door open for potential rate cuts later in the year [1]. - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce has urged Powell to lower interest rates, emphasizing the need for action to assist American citizens [3].

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 不锈钢产业日报 2025-06-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12540 | 100 07-08月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -55 | 0 -25913 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | 566 | 4880 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 159994 | | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 112867 | -367 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 13375 | 0 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9200 | -100 | | | SS主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 23 ...

铝类产业日报 2025/6/25 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 环比 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 本月-下月合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 20,355.00 70.00 | +40.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -10.00↓ 本月-下月合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 2,919.00 61.00 | +16.00↑ +1.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 254,015.00 | +3930.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝 ...

3. 交易员削减美联储提前降息可能性。美联储-①鲍威尔：目前政策处于有利位置，可以观望等待再考 虑利率调整。议员们私下说我做得对。绝大多数官员认为今年晚些时候降息是合适的。不会说美元正在 下跌，关于这一说法的声明为时尚早。②博斯蒂克：目前没有必要降息，预计今年晚些时候将有一次幅 度25个基点的降息。③哈玛克：目前没有任何紧迫的理由降息。利率政策可能在相当长一段时间内保持 不变。没必要对资金从美元流出反应得过于夸张。④卡什卡利：面对关税不确定性，美联储处于观望模 式。⑤威廉姆斯：关税和不确定性将导致今年经济增长放缓、通胀上升。⑥柯林斯：当前适度限制性的 货币政策立场是必要的。⑦巴尔：货币政策处于有利位置，美联储将观望经济形势如何发展。 欧元： 1. 国际货币金融机构官方论坛（OMFIF）调查：16%的央行预计在未来12-24个月内增加对欧元的敞 口，高于2024年的7%。 2. 欧洲央行-①副行长金多斯：核心通胀回落过程完全没有受到干扰。在不确定性增加的情况下，欧洲 央行必须保持特别审慎。②管委卡兹米尔：在贸易战局势更为明朗之前，不会调整利率。③首席经济学 家连恩：通胀目标基本完成。 金十数据整理：每日全球外汇 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton 2. Core Viewpoints - The TC negotiation remains unresolved, and the overall processing fee is still low. Scrap copper enterprises expect future supply to tighten due to the reverse invoicing policy, but the demand outlook is not optimistic. With a supply - demand imbalance and changeable macro - factors, the precious metal attribute of copper may be highlighted. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range for the Cu2507 contract at 77,400 - 78,000 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On June 24, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 78,340 yuan/ton and closed at 78,640 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 78,410 yuan/ton and closed at 78,470 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - On the previous day, the procurement and sales sentiment improved. Due to inventory clearance by holders at low prices, the premium continued to decline, and some low - price goods were sold at a discount. The expected premium may continue to fall today [2]. Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The Fed has internal differences on interest - rate cuts. Geopolitically, Trump made statements about the Israel - Iran cease - fire and the US - Iran situation. China conducted 300 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations on June 25 [3]. - **Mine End**: AIC Mines signed a $40 million prepayment loan and purchase agreement with Trafigura. BHP signed four long - term contracts worth about A$1.5 billion with Aurizon [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: Ningbo Jin Tian Copper imported over 5,000 tons of copper from the DRC this year, with expected increased imports in the second half. China's May scrap copper imports decreased, and Thailand became the largest supplier [5]. - **Consumption**: Jiangxi Tongying New Materials plans to invest 20 million yuan in a 10,000 - ton copper deep - processing project [6]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 3,325 tons to 94,675 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 3,103 tons to 22,425 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased by 16,300 tons to 129,600 tons [7]. Strategy - **Copper**: Cautiously bullish, recommend buying on dips for hedging in the range of 77,400 - 78,000 yuan/ton for the Cu2507 contract [8]. - **Arbitrage**: On hold - **Options**: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton

今日优选 男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 特朗普认为伊以双方都违反了停火协议，但又表示伊以违反协议都不会面临后果 鲍威尔：可以观望等待再考虑利率调整 美参议院共和党计划周五就特朗普的美丽大法案进行投票 英媒：欧盟准备采取更多关税反制措施以对美施压 抗战胜利80周年纪念大会包括检阅部队9月3日上午举行 央行：6月25日开展3000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期 市场盘点 周二，因特朗普宣布伊以停火的消息打击了避险买盘，美元指数亚盘、欧盘持续下跌近0.50%，失守98关口，后因鲍威尔暗示他将抵制7月降息的呼吁而小 幅回升，最终收跌0.40%，报97.96。基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.2960%，2年期美债收益率收报3.8310%。 因伊以停火打击避险情绪，以及鲍威尔称在考虑降息前需要更多时间，现货黄金一度跌破3310美元关口，最终收跌1.67%，收报3322.82美元/盎司；现货白 银最终收跌0.46%，报35.90美元/盎司。 | 比特币 | 105902美元 | 0.49% | | --- | --- ...

Market Overview - US stock indices closed higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching their highest closing levels in over four months. The Dow Jones rose by 1.19%, Nasdaq by 1.43%, and S&P by 1.11% [1] - The VIX index fell by 11.85% to 17.48, indicating reduced market volatility [1] - The US dollar index decreased by 0.42% to 97.97, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond dropped by 1.173% to 4.297% [1] Industry & Stocks - Most sectors in the S&P 500 saw gains, with semiconductor and technology sectors leading the way, rising by 3.79% and 1.8% respectively. Energy and consumer staples were the only sectors to decline, down by 1.3% and 0.09% [1] - Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with notable increases in TSMC (up 4.65%), Alibaba (up 3.47%), and Pinduoduo (up 5.11%) [1] - Major tech stocks also saw gains, with Nvidia rising by 2.59% and Amazon by 2.06%. However, Apple fell by 0.6% and Tesla by 2.35% [2] Company Highlights - FedEx reported fourth-quarter revenue of $22.2 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $21.75 billion. However, the company did not provide full-year guidance due to global demand uncertainty [12] - Meta Platforms achieved a market share of 50.8% in the AR/VR headset market, leading a strong rebound with a year-on-year growth of 18.1% [13] - UBS raised its valuation for Tesla's Robotaxi business to $350 billion, assuming successful execution and regulation, which is an increase from a previous valuation of $225 billion [16] Regulatory & Economic Insights - The International Bank for Settlements stated that stablecoins fail to meet the three main tests of currency due to lack of central bank support and insufficient protection against illegal use [5] - The Federal Reserve's Chairman Powell indicated that the path for future interest rates could vary significantly based on economic conditions, with no immediate need for rate cuts [10][11]

Domestic News - The 12th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference was held, focusing on "further deepening economic system reform and promoting Chinese-style modernization" [1] - The People's Bank of China and six other departments jointly issued "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support to Boost and Expand Consumption" [1] - The central bank will conduct a 300 billion MLF operation tomorrow with a fixed amount and interest rate bidding, with a term of one year [1] - The Guangdong Provincial Government issued a work plan to promote sustained economic improvement and strengthen the domestic circulation [1] - Wang Yi spoke with Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian, who stated that a ceasefire had just been reached between Israel and Iran, but the situation remains unstable [1] International News - Trump expressed dissatisfaction with both Iran and Israel, claiming both sides violated the ceasefire agreement and warned Israel against dropping bombs [2] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly rejected Trump's request to completely cancel strikes against Iran [2] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the current position allows for waiting before considering interest rate adjustments, with many potential paths for future rates [2] - Traders have reduced the likelihood of an early rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2] - The EU is prepared to impose retaliatory tariffs to negotiate a more favorable trade agreement with Trump [2] - In the Israel-Iran situation, the Israeli Defense Minister stated that Iran violated the ceasefire agreement and will retaliate against Tehran [2]