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可能远超预期!全球商品,迎第三轮“超级周期”
券商中国· 2026-01-25 23:25
Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market is entering a new "super cycle," driven by factors such as excessive monetary issuance, a credit crisis in the US dollar, technological innovations, and geopolitical conflicts reshaping supply chains [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Driving the Super Cycle - The current super cycle is rooted in global monetary overissuance, particularly since the 2008 financial crisis and accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to significant inflation and asset price increases [2]. - Four key factors are contributing to this cycle: the US debt cycle and the restructuring of dollar credit, structural demand driven by AI and green energy transitions, geopolitical changes affecting supply chain security, and supply constraints following a decade of reduced capital expenditure in the mining sector [3][4][5]. Group 2: Domestic Price Trends and Economic Policies - China's Producer Price Index (PPI) is showing signs of recovery, with a 0.2% month-on-month increase in December 2025, indicating a potential turning point for domestic prices [6]. - Three core factors are expected to drive this price recovery: a strong base effect from previous low commodity prices, the impact of "anti-involution" policies aimed at improving industry profitability, and stabilization in the real estate sector after years of decline [7][8]. Group 3: Strategic Asset Allocation - Fund managers are increasingly reallocating towards cyclical assets, particularly in the non-ferrous metals and chemical sectors, as they anticipate a recovery in commodity prices and domestic economic conditions [9][10]. - Notable investments include significant positions in leading mining companies and a strategic focus on industrial metals and small metals, which are expected to benefit from new demand drivers such as AI infrastructure and energy transitions [11][12].
调查“利用AI视频冒充王室骗钱”团伙
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-25 21:22
比利时联邦检察官说,诈骗团伙通过电子邮件、电话、即时通讯软件布设陷阱,利用人工智能(AI) 生成的假视频,冒充比利时国王菲利普或其核心幕僚,企图骗取与王室可能有关系的人员钱财。 本月新一波诈骗活动中,骗子还以国王名义向比利时企业高管发送"视频访谈邀请"或是"晚宴邀请",并 要求对方为这些虚假活动支付"赞助费"。除外国政要和商界领袖外,该团伙还向与比利时王室关系密切 的比利时本土家庭下手。 (来源:天津日报) 转自:天津日报 比利时调查人员24日说,2025年年初开始,一伙身份不明的诈骗犯冒充比利时王室成员,向外国政界、 商界要人等骗取钱财。 比利时联邦检察官办公室在一份声明中说:"所幸,大多数受害者很快识破了这一骗局。"不过,该团伙 仍骗取了一名受害者的钱财。联邦检察官说,目前正联合联邦警察的专业团队,对相关诈骗未遂案件展 开调查。 新华社微特稿 ...
【新年开新局·工会主席谈实干】激发新活力 展现新作为
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-25 19:17
(来源:工人日报) 2026年是"十五五"规划开局之年,站在新的起点,河北工会如何推动工作开创新局面、引领职工作出新 贡献?1月20日,河北省总工会党组书记、常务副主席齐为民接受本报专访时表示,新的一年,河北工 会将深入学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神,推动全总创新实施"559"工作部署在河北落地见效,推动 全省工会工作再上新台阶。 记者:在强化职工思想引领方面,河北工会如何筑牢广大职工团结奋斗的思想根基? 齐为民:我们将持续深化"中国工人大思政课·河北工宣讲"品牌活动,进一步充实优化河北省职工党的 创新理论宣讲队、劳模工匠宣讲队、社会主义核心价值观宣讲队,选树一批贡献突出的劳模工匠典型。 通过广泛组织宣讲宣传活动,讲好新时代河北工人故事,把广大职工的智慧和力量凝聚到实现党的中心 任务上来。 齐为民:一是支持各级工会因地制宜联合开展劳模工匠宣讲、职工文体活动,在促进职工思想政治教育 资源共享、职工文化交流方面加强探索;二是积极合作组织竞赛活动,推进重点产行业职工技术交流; 三是积极开展跨区域就业服务、青年职工交友联谊等活动,促进三地跨区域维权协同,助力构建区域和 谐劳动关系。 记者:河北工会如何动员职工在推动河 ...
全球大宗商品或迎来超预期周期基金经理战略性增配有色化工品种
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2026-01-25 17:23
当国际金价距离5000美元/盎司仅一步之遥,当伦敦银现仅用两个月时间便实现翻倍,当铜铝铅锌锡上 演"元素周期表"行情,当硫磺价格一年翻倍、碳酸锂价格迭创新高……这一系列看似独立的市场脉冲, 正汇聚成一股时代洪流,预示着全球大宗商品市场正迈入新一轮超级周期。 "这轮周期的持续强度和时间,可能远超我们想象。"近日,多位基金经理向证券时报记者表达了类似的 观点。在全球货币超发、美元信用危机、技术革命创新需求、地缘冲突引发供应链重构等众多因素共振 下,全球大宗商品可能迎来一场远超市场预期的周期浪潮,而嗅觉敏锐的公募基金正闻风而动,将投资 罗盘的指针拨向现代工业的"血液"与"基石"——有色金属和基础化工,在定位这场全球商品盛宴历史坐 标的同时,也寻找着浪潮之下具体的产业掘金路径。 大宗商品迎来第三轮超级周期 历史从不简单重复,但总是押着相同的韵脚。 回溯百年,大宗商品的超级周期往往与全球经济格局的剧变、技术革命的浪潮以及货币体系的重构紧密 相连。如今,我们再次站在一个多重历史因素交汇的十字路口。 "2026年,非常有希望成为物价走势变局之年。"万家基金权益投资部基金经理叶勇直言,这可能触发市 场风格的重大切换,其信心主 ...
北约拟打造AI防线巩固欧洲对俄防御
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-25 14:08
洛因表示,传感器将覆盖数千公里区域,会布设在"地面、太空、网络和空中"。它们可以获得对手使用 的武器和行进方面的数据,以便"实时将情报传给所有北约国家"。此外还需要加强武器库存,维持"当 前水平"的兵力部署,并借助云端技术和AI来驾驭该系统。 报道称,在试点计划下的组件已经在波兰和罗马尼亚进行了测试,如有可能,北约将会在2027年底开始 布设。去年秋季,很多不明身份的无人机不断侵入波兰、德国、罗马尼亚、丹麦和比利时的领空,对此 欧盟决定推出一个"反无人机墙"计划,不过具体情况尚未确定。 欧盟还打算借鉴乌克兰3年多来应对此类袭击的经验。波兰国防部长瓦迪斯瓦夫·科西尼亚克-卡梅什24 日称,准备在1月底签订一份"欧洲最大的反无人机系统"的合同。 来源: 参考消息 据法新社1月24日报道,德国一名军官24日表示,北约预计会加强欧洲与俄罗斯边界的防卫,特别是要 创造一个几乎没有官兵但配置各种装备的、由人工智能(AI)协助的"自动防御区"。 北约盟军地面部队司令部负责作战的副参谋长托马斯·洛因对德国《星期日世界报》说,这一计划包括 设立一个防御区,敌人要想前行必须穿越该区域。 这名军官进一步指出,具体来说,会有一些传感 ...
Meta公司暂停全球青少年用户使用AI聊天伙伴功能
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-25 11:04
(央视财经《第一时间》)据路透社报道,脸书母公司Meta23日宣布,在全球范围内暂停青少年用户使用旗下所有应用的人工智能(AI)聊天伙伴功 能。 转载请注明央视财经 编辑:潘煦 Meta公司当天表示,暂停全球青少年用户使用旗下所有应用的AI聊天伙伴功能,此次限制措施将持续数周,直到适合青少年的专属版本上线。Meta将在 这一期间对相关产品进行重新设计,并引入家长监管功能和更为严格的安全防护机制。据了解,本次受到影响的用户范围除了在Meta平台实名认证为青 少年的用户,还包括那些注册信息为成年人、但经平台年龄识别技术判定后疑似为青少年的用户。 路透社的报道称,Meta旗下应用程序的AI聊天伙伴功能曾被曝与青少年用户进行带有性暗示的对话,这导致公司一度面临法律诉讼与监管机构审查。据 美国媒体报道,Meta在新墨西哥州卷入的一桩相关诉讼案件将于近期开庭。在此案中,Meta被指控未能切实履行职责,未有效保护其平台上的未成年用 户免受色情内容侵害。下周,Meta公司的代表还将与另外几家大型科技公司代表一同前往加州洛杉矶出庭,在一桩集体诉讼件中,原告指控这些科技公 司的AI功能对未成年用户的身心造成伤害。 ...
可控核聚变行业周报:韩国扩大聚变研发预算,General Fusion 拟借壳上市
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the controlled nuclear fusion industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the controlled nuclear fusion sector, including South Korea's increased budget for fusion research and General Fusion's plans for a SPAC merger to raise $1 billion [3][24]. - South Korea's 2026 fusion research budget has been raised to 112.4 billion KRW (approximately $76.57 million), a 99% increase from 2025 [15]. - General Fusion aims to commercialize its magnetized target fusion technology by the mid-2030s, with a valuation of approximately $1 billion post-merger [24][18]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - During the week of January 19-23, the nuclear fusion index rose by 3.76%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.92 percentage points [8][11]. Tender and Bid Information - The report notes a significant increase in procurement demand, particularly for components like TF coils, with total procurement amounts nearing 100 million RMB [10][4]. - Key projects include the procurement of stability measurement systems and TF coil insulation manufacturing, with various contracts signed [10][13]. Domestic and International News - South Korea's Ministry of Science and Technology has initiated the 2026 fusion research development plan, focusing on upgrading the fusion energy ecosystem and introducing AI technology [14][15]. - The "Huanghuang 70" superconducting tokamak has achieved a significant milestone by maintaining a stable plasma state for 335 seconds [16][17]. Investment Dynamics - General Fusion's SPAC merger is expected to accelerate its commercialization efforts, while MuWave has secured £450,000 in seed funding to develop high-power microwave technology for fusion energy [21][24]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic suppliers in key areas such as magnets, power supplies, and structural components, which are expected to benefit from the accelerating tender processes [24].
盘点2025年度网络热点谣言,新的一年可别再传了!
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-25 06:54
岁末年初之际,中国互联网联合辟谣平台特此盘点2025年度网络谣言,对于过去一年传播较广、误导性 强的热点谣言,拆解套路、廓清迷雾、锚定真相。[围观]详戳↓↓@全国网络举报 盘点2025年度网络热点 谣言,新的一年可别再传了! 为坚决遏制谣言传播,净化网络生态,在中央网信办违法和不良信息举报中心指导下,中国互联网联合 辟谣平台持续发挥权威辟谣主力军作用。2025年共发布各类辟谣稿件1.7万余篇,推出12期《月度辟谣 榜》、248期《今日辟谣榜》,《今日辟谣榜》荣获"2025年网络文明建设优秀案例"。与中国人民银 行、中国科协等多部门联合发布《经济金融领域年度网络辟谣榜》《利用AI生成类谣言辟谣典型案 例》《科学领域流言月榜》等多份专项辟谣榜单,及时阻断网络谣言传播。 #联合辟谣##微博辟谣#【[打call]盘点2025年度网络热点谣言,新的一年可别再传了!】回顾2025年, 在公共政策、社会事件、经济金融、灾害事故、科学知识等公众关心关切领域,网络谣言不时滋生蔓 延。随着人工智能(AI)技术浪潮汹涌,越来越多的网络谣言搭上AI的"快车",歪曲事实、误导认知, 污染网络空间。 ...
三星闪存,涨价100%
半导体行业观察· 2026-01-25 03:52
Core Viewpoint - Samsung Electronics has increased the price of NAND flash memory by over 100% in the first quarter due to a surge in demand driven by the proliferation of artificial intelligence (AI), while supply has not significantly increased [1][3]. Group 1: Price Increase and Market Dynamics - The price of NAND flash memory has more than doubled, with Samsung executing price adjustments from January after signing supply contracts with major clients at the end of last year [1][3]. - NAND prices have been on an upward trend since the fourth quarter of last year, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of approximately 33-38% reported by TrendForce [3]. - Other major players in the NAND market, such as SK Hynix and SanDisk, are also expected to follow suit with similar price increases [3][4]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - The supply of NAND flash memory has not seen significant increases due to limited production expansion and factors such as process transitions [4]. - Samsung has maintained a conservative approach to NAND investment, leading to limited growth in shipment volumes [4]. Group 3: Impact on the Market - The rising prices of NAND and DRAM are significantly impacting the market, with increased costs for building AI infrastructure and inevitable price hikes for smartphones and PCs that utilize these memory components [4]. - Manufacturers of AI data centers, smartphones, and PCs are planning to raise final product prices due to the pressure from memory costs, and this trend is expected to continue in the short term [4].
马斯克预警:留给旧世界的时间只剩2000天,中国握着唯一“王牌”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-25 01:51
Group 1 - The core message emphasizes that a significant transformation driven by technology is imminent, with predictions of a major reshuffling of jobs and wealth distribution within the next seven years, leading to increased disparities between individuals [1][4][19] - The white-collar workforce is identified as particularly vulnerable, with projections that many may exit the mainstream job market within three years due to advancements in AI [4][7] - The article discusses the rapid evolution of AI capabilities, suggesting that by 2026, general artificial intelligence will achieve breakthroughs that allow it to think and solve complex problems like humans, fundamentally altering the job landscape by 2030 [4][6] Group 2 - AI's impact on employment is immediate, with young students and white-collar workers facing the highest risks as traditional job security diminishes [7][9] - The article highlights that even high-paying professions such as law and accounting are not immune to AI replacement, as AI can process vast amounts of information more efficiently than humans [9][11] - The healthcare sector is also at risk, with AI potentially surpassing human doctors in knowledge and skill, leading to a future where AI plays a significant role in medical practices [13] Group 3 - Despite the challenges posed by AI, there is a belief that it could lead to a new era of prosperity, where robots become the primary labor force, significantly reducing costs and improving living standards [15][19] - The article notes that China is positioned to lead in AI capabilities, particularly in energy and computational power, which could give it a competitive edge over other nations [17][19] - The AI industry is characterized by a "winner-takes-all" dynamic, where a few major players dominate the market, exacerbating wealth inequality and limiting opportunities for smaller companies [19][21] Group 4 - The article suggests that while AI will eliminate repetitive jobs, it will also create opportunities for individuals to leverage uniquely human skills such as creativity and emotional intelligence [23] - It encourages a mindset shift towards collaboration with AI, advocating for individuals to use AI as a tool to enhance their productivity and focus on areas where they can add unique value [23]