Economic Overview - The economic outlook has slightly deteriorated, with growth rate forecasts down by 0.3 percentage points and unemployment rate up by 0.1 percentage points compared to March predictions [2] - The PCE and core PCE inflation forecasts have been raised by 0.3 percentage points, with tariffs expected to push prices higher this year [2] Policy Insights - The dot plot indicates a "bimodal distribution" within the Federal Reserve, with one faction focused on the impact of tariffs on prices and another concerned about the economic growth implications [4] - Seven officials predict no rate cuts in 2025, while two expect only one cut this year, and eight anticipate two cuts [4] - Powell emphasized the uncertainty in the economic outlook and stated that no official can make a clear prediction on interest rate movements under current conditions [3][4] Market Strategy - The market reacted moderately to the Fed's meeting, with a neutral trading return at the close [5] - The OIS curve suggests a 48 basis point reduction in rates by 2025, approximately two cuts [5] - U.S. Treasury yields showed minimal changes, with the 2-year yield at 3.94%, 5-year at 3.99%, 10-year at 4.39%, and 30-year at 4.89% [5] - The dollar index increased by 0.06% to 98.878, with the offshore RMB exchange rate stabilizing around 7.19 [6] - The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indices showed little movement, indicating a cautious market sentiment [7] - The 10-year yield above 4.5% and 5-year yield above 4.1% are seen as suitable entry points, with potential for a technical rebound in the dollar providing selling opportunities [7]

金十数据整理：每日全球外汇市场要闻速递（6月20日） 非美主要货币： 1. 日本央行行长植田和男：如果经济和物价如预期般改善，预计将继续加息以应对经济状况。日本的实 际利率明显偏低。 2. 英镑：①英国央行将政策利率维持在4.25%不变，符合市场预期，投票比例显示内部分歧加大；②英 国央行行长贝利：利率将"逐步下降"。关于我们预期利率将逐步下降的声明并不代表对八月份的（降 息）预测。副行长隆巴尔代利：服务业通胀显示出相当顽固的迹象。③交易员提高对英国央行8月降息 的押注，预计降息可能性达80%，同时预计央行今年还会再降息50个基点。 3. 欧元：①管委维勒鲁瓦：如果未来六个月内关键利率发生变动，降息是最有可能的。如有必要，不必 强制采取逐步推进的方式；等待影响充分显现过久可能导致重大损失。②管委内格尔：我们可以采取更 多措施以吸引投资者对欧元的兴趣。欧元有可能利用当前局势，成为避险货币。我们目前已进入货币政 策的中性区间。 为之的减速。 7. 挪威央行降息25个基点至4.25%，市场预期维持不变。挪威央行：经济前景不确定，但如果经济大致 按照目前的预测发展，政策利率将在2025年期间进一步降低。预测利率在20 ...

据《澳洲金融评论报》报道，受益于就业数据的持续韧性，澳洲和美国的利率维持 不变的时间可能会 比市场和借贷者预期的更长，这表明当前并不急需大幅降息。 周四公布的数据显示，尽管就业岗位出现意外下滑，但澳洲5月的失业率仍稳定在 4.1%。 RBC Capital Markets首席经济学家Su-Lin Ong表示，这些数据显示劳动力 市场"依旧健康"。 就在一个月前，澳联储和美联储都认为，由于美国总统特朗普的贸易政策将导致企业裁员，两国的就业 市场将在第二季度开始疲软，但失业率却一直不符合预期。 这意味着澳联储要保持耐心，这也是包括美联储在内的其它多家央行所传递的信息。 Barrenjoey的首席利率策略师Andrew Lilley指出："我们在5月没有看到劳动力市 场有任何疲软的迹象。" 事实上，美联储在周三（澳洲东部时间周四）的政策会议上如期将基准利率维持在 4%至4.25%之间不 变。 他注意到，两国经济的就业市场表现都比预期要好。 主席Jerome Powell指出，美国劳动力市场依旧稳健，处于或 接近充分就业状态。 Jerome Powell（图片来源：澳洲金融评论报） 虽然美国政策制定者重申预计今年将降 ...

Core Points - The People's Bank of China announced the latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on June 20, with the 1-year LPR remaining at 3.00% and the 5-year LPR at 3.50%, unchanged from the previous month [1] - Historical LPR adjustments show that the 1-year LPR has been stable at 3.00% since May 2025, while the 5-year LPR has also remained at 3.50% during the same period [2] - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 161.2 billion yuan on June 20, resulting in a net withdrawal of 41.3 billion yuan for the day [4] LPR Data Overview - The 1-year LPR has seen fluctuations in the past, with a peak of 3.70% in mid-2022 and a decline to 3.00% by May 2025 [2][3] - The 5-year LPR has also experienced changes, with a high of 4.65% in late 2021, dropping to 3.50% by June 2025 [2][3] Central Bank Operations - The People's Bank of China has been active in managing liquidity, with a total of 9,603 billion yuan in reverse repos conducted during the week, leading to a net withdrawal of 799 billion yuan [4] - The central bank's actions are in line with global trends, as other central banks, such as the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, are also maintaining or adjusting their interest rates [4]

同日，瑞士央行宣布将政策利率从0.25%降至0%，为连续第六次降息，符合市场预期，新利率6月20日生效。利率决策公布后，瑞郎兑欧元一度涨 0.41%，兑美元涨0.38%。瑞士央行称通胀压力下降，将密切监控形势并调整政策。瑞士面临通缩，消费者价格指数从2月0.3%降至5月-0.1%，瑞 郎走强是主因。瑞士央行表示全球经济前景不确定，未来将采取措施限制瑞郎涨势，且不排除再次实施负利率政策。 英国央行则宣布维持基准利率在4.25%不变，符合市场预期。货币政策委员会9名成员中，6人支持维持利率不变，3人主张降息25个基点，分歧程 度超预期。会议纪要释放鸽派信号，预计薪资增长将放缓，劳动力市场出现更多通胀下行压力迹象。英国央行行长贝利称利率将逐步下行，交易 员加大对英国央行宽松政策押注，预计今年还将再降息50个基点，8月降息概率为80%。 此外，美联储当地时间6月18日维持政策利率不变。（陈十一） 【环球网财经综合报道】6月19日，挪威央行意外宣布降息25个基点至4.25%，为2020年以来首次降息，且称后续将进行更多降息。此前路透社民 意调查显示，多数经济学家预期利率维持不变。降息消息公布后，挪威10年期国债收益率跌 ...

日本央行会议纪要显示，委员们一致认为，若日本央行的经济和物价预期得以实现，继续根据经济和物 价的改善情况逐步提高利率是适当的。部分成员表示，日本央行必须维持当前极低的实际利率，以支撑 经济。（新华财经） ...

智通财经6月20日电，日本央行会议纪要显示，委员们认为，若日本央行的经济和物价预期得以实现， 继续根据经济和物价的改善情况逐步提高利率是适当的。 ...

Domestic News - The three departments held a video conference to strengthen the safety management of new energy vehicles, emphasizing the need to avoid "involution-style" competition and ensuring quality standards are met [1] International News - The Bank of England maintained its policy interest rate at 4.25%, aligning with market expectations, while internal voting showed increasing divisions. Traders have raised bets on a 50 basis point rate cut by the end of the year [3] - The EU is pushing for a trade agreement with the US similar to the UK's, with European officials reportedly more willing to accept a 10% reciprocal tariff benchmark [3] - Iran's Foreign Ministry confirmed upcoming talks in Geneva with France, the UK, Germany, and the EU's foreign affairs chief [3] - The Israeli Defense Forces reported the discovery of Iran launching ballistic missiles, with over 10 missiles fired in the latest round of attacks [3]

【 导读 】 紧跟美联储，英国央行宣布 维持基准利率4.25%不变 见习记者 储是 6月19日，英国央行召开货币政策会议， 宣布 维持基准利率4.25%不变。 英国央行重申了其核心指引，即未来的降息将是"渐进且谨慎的"。 英国央行会议纪要显示，投票结果 是 6 票支持维持利率，3票支持降息25个基点。 委员会预 计薪资增长在今年剩余时间内将显著放缓，原因是就业市场持续宽松。委员会 还指出， 劳动 力市场出现更多通胀下行压力迹象 。 英国央行行长Andrew Bailey表示，利率仍处于逐步下行的轨道上，世界充满高度不确定 性。"在英国，我们看到劳动力市场出现疲软迹象。我们将密切关注这些迹象在多大程度上影 响消费者价格通胀。" 交易员还预计，到2026年夏季将有两次进一步的降息，届时利率将稳定在3.5%左右。 英国央行如期 维持利率不变 英国央行此次维持利率不变的决定，与周三美联储的行动一致。 受此决策影响，英国国债和 英镑汇率双双下挫 。 英国央行表示，英国GDP增长似乎仍然疲软，劳动力市场继续走软。迹象表明，随着时间的 推移，疲软的边际已经打开。薪酬增长指标继续放缓，同5月份一样，委员会预计今年剩余时 间将 ...

Group 1 - DBS Bank reports a significant decline in Asian demand for US dollars, with Asian countries holding substantial US assets seeing their currencies perform strongly against the dollar [1] - The return of funds to Singapore has led to a substantial decrease in short-term Singapore dollar interest rates [1] - The Bridgewater Associates notes that the slowdown in US consumer spending is affecting multiple sectors, including real estate, with signs of weakness in tourism, entertainment, and dining services [2] Group 2 - SEB Research predicts that the European Central Bank (ECB) will pause interest rate cuts in July, with two potential cuts in September and December, lowering the deposit rate from 2.00% to 1.50% [1] - Deutsche Bank strategists highlight a new stablecoin regulatory bill approved by the US Senate, which could strengthen the dollar's dominance in the global digital economy [2] - Allspring analysts indicate that the Federal Reserve is currently adopting a "wait-and-see" approach, with potential rate cuts in September if inflation continues to decline towards the 2.0% target [3]