俄罗斯外交部：俄罗斯与美国就中东冲突保持联系。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年6月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：特朗普引发中东冲突升级担忧，金价先下后上；美国三大股指全线收 跌，欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌；美元指数涨0.69%报98.8，离岸人民币对美元小幅 贬值报7.1923；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率跌6.92个基点报4.377%； COMEX黄金期货跌0.32%报3406.50美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注2025陆家嘴论坛、美联储利率决议，美国5月新屋开工和营建许 可、英国5月CPI、欧央行官员密集讲话。特朗普引发中东冲突升级担忧，金价再度 先下后上但依旧收跌。沪金溢价收敛至0元/ ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The A-share market experienced a slight pullback after a rebound in April, influenced by accelerated theme rotation, the realization of expectations from China-US trade negotiations, and concerns over tariff uncertainties [1][2] - The Middle East conflict has a minimal substantive impact on the Chinese stock market, primarily causing emotional shocks, as China's diversified energy supply reduces reliance on Middle Eastern oil [1][4] Key Points on Market Dynamics - The current equity market lacks a clear main line, with innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumption sectors performing well, while technology sectors are experiencing frequent rotations [1][5] - The valuation levels are above the median of the past decade, indicating a need for market adjustments due to the crowded trades in previously high-performing stocks [1][5] - The convertible bond market has seen a slight decline in prices and valuations since early April, improving cost-effectiveness for investors [1][6] Future Market Outlook - The medium to long-term outlook for the equity market in 2025 remains positive, supported by capital market policies and monetary easing, which are expected to attract incremental funds [1][7] - Short-term adjustments are anticipated due to limited marginal benefits and the cautious sentiment of investors entering the earnings forecast window [1][7] Sector-Specific Insights - The recovery of military orders in 2025 is expected to significantly boost industry demand, with the banking sector showing strategic allocation value due to its high dividend and low volatility characteristics [3][8] - The banking convertible bond market is undergoing a large-scale exit, with a focus on short-term bonds with high yields as replacements [3][9] Investment Recommendations - In the new consumption sector, attention is drawn to relatively low-priced stocks with potential for price adjustments, such as Pop Mart and related trends [10] - Other sectors worth considering for stable cash flow and profitability include public utilities and agriculture, with specific recommendations for companies like Xinao and Sanxia Energy [11] - In the military sector, companies like Guokong and Ziguang Guomi are highlighted as having high investment potential due to the rapid growth of orders [12][14] Risk Considerations - The downgrade of Hengtai's credit rating is attributed to reduced asset scale and revenue, along with significant losses in the previous year, although no substantial risks are identified from a bond perspective [15]

Core Viewpoint - The former UK ambassador suggests that Israel may provoke the United States into direct military involvement in a conflict with Iran, indicating a potential escalation in the Middle East tensions [1] Group 1: Conflict Dynamics - The current events are described as the "second round" of conflict, following an inconclusive first round a year ago [1] - The ongoing leadership of Netanyahu is seen as a factor that will perpetuate the conflict with Iran [1] Group 2: Diplomatic Outlook - The likelihood of reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran is perceived to be low and is expected to continue decreasing [1]

Group 1 - The US dollar index is trading around 98.28, while spot silver opened at $36.34/oz and is currently around $36.21/oz, indicating a slight decline [1] - Market focus this week includes retail sales, import and export prices, industrial and manufacturing production, commercial inventories, NAHB housing market index, and API weekly report on US crude oil supply [1] - Last week, the dollar index remained flat at 0.00%, closing at 98.14, while spot silver closed at $36.30/oz, up 0.03% [1] Group 2 - The "Nimitz" aircraft carrier is heading to the Middle East, with a significant number of refueling aircraft moving to Europe, providing options for President Trump [2] - Reports indicate that Iran is seeking talks with the US and Israel to end hostilities, while Netanyahu does not rule out the possibility of assassinating Khamenei [2] - Trump stated that Iran wants to reach an agreement and criticized Iran's refusal to sign an agreement with Israel as foolish [2] Group 3 - Market participants remain cautious regarding Middle Eastern conflicts and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, leading to a slight pullback in gold prices below $3,400 per ounce [3] - Silver prices are fluctuating slightly above the $36.00 per ounce mark following a minor correction last Friday [3] Group 4 - Upcoming events include the announcement of domestic refined oil price adjustments and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [4] - The IEA will release its monthly oil market report, and Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index for June will be published [4][5]

央视记者获悉，当地时间6月15日，美国总统特朗普在接受采访时表示，他愿意接受俄罗斯总统普京担 任伊朗和以色列冲突的调解人。 中东局势升级，WTI原油期货周一高开逾6%，国际金价亦高开。美股三大股指期货周一低开。 以色列军队当地时间16日凌晨袭击伊朗首都德黑兰及马拉德、马什哈德等地，德黑兰多个地点传出密集 爆炸声。伊朗防空部队在德黑兰西部击落数架以色列无人机。据央视新闻报道，当地时间16日凌晨，以 色列国防军发言人称，以空军目前正在攻击伊朗中部的地对地导弹基地。 以色列内阁6月15日批准将以防长卡茨13日宣布的全国紧急状态延长至6月30日。此次延期需要得到以色 列议会外交和安全委员会的进一步批准。紧急状态允许内阁颁布凌驾于议会立法之上的法规。 当地时间16日凌晨，伊朗国家民航组织宣布，将取消国内和国际航班的措施延长至当天14时。此前，伊 朗宣布领空关闭至16日凌晨2时。 据新华社报道，伊拉克总理苏达尼15日与伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬通电话，重申伊拉克政府和人民对伊朗的 坚定支持。 特朗普：愿意接受普京担任伊以冲突的调解人 当地时间6月14日，俄罗斯总统助理乌沙科夫表示，普京与特朗普进行了通话。双方在通话中强调了防 止 ...

美联社报道指出，对于以色列旨在摧毁伊朗核计划的军事行动，特朗普政府迫切希望阻止其爆发成一场 更广泛的冲突，并认为杀死哈梅内伊的计划将加剧冲突，可能破坏该地区的稳定。 在当地时间6月15日接受美国福克斯新闻一档节目采访时，内塔尼亚胡没有直接回答白宫是否拒绝了"杀 死哈梅内伊"的计划。"有很多关于从未发生过的谈话的虚假报道，我不会对此进行讨论，"他说："但我 可以告诉你，我认为我们做了我们需要做的事情，我们会做我们需要做的事情。我认为美国知道什么对 美国有利。" 内塔尼亚胡受访时还称，这场冲突"肯定会导致政权更迭"，"因为伊朗政权非常脆弱"。而他的发言人奥 默·多斯特里（Omer Dostri）后来则称，有关以色列计划刺杀哈梅内伊的报道是"假的"。 伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊 澎湃影像 【文/观察者网 熊超然】自当地时间6月13日以来，以色列持续大规模空袭伊朗，轰炸核设施和军事目 标，造成大量人员伤亡，其中多名高级军事指挥官和核科学家死亡。 据路透社当地时间6月15日援引两名知情美国官员透露，以色列最近几天通知美国政府，他们已经制定 了一个可信的计划，要杀死伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊，而美国总统特朗普否决了（vetoed）以 ...

Core Points - The conflict in the Middle East will be a topic of discussion at the upcoming G7 summit [1] Group 1 - The German Chancellor, Merz, emphasized the significance of the Middle East conflict in the context of the G7 meeting [1]

双方在通话中强调了防止中东冲突升级的必要性。普京谴责了以色列对伊朗的军事行动，并表达了对冲 突可能升级的严重关切。 普京还提到，俄罗斯准备调解以色列与伊朗的冲突。 乌沙科夫透露，普京在通话中还向特朗普通报了俄罗斯和乌克兰执行伊斯坦布尔协议的情况。普京表 示，俄罗斯愿意在6月22日之后继续与乌克兰进行谈判。 特朗普表示，他希望俄乌冲突能尽快结束。特朗普还称中东局势令人担忧。他表示， 美国谈判代表愿与 伊朗就核问题恢复谈判。 综合自：央视新闻 责编：叶舒筠 校对： 王锦程 当地时间6月14日，俄罗斯总统助理乌沙科夫表示，当天俄罗斯总统普京与美国总统特朗普进行 了通话，通话持续约50分钟。在通话中，双方讨论了以色列与伊朗间的紧张局势。普京向特朗 普介绍了与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡和伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬的通话情况。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes END 点击关键字可查看 潜望系列深度报道丨 股事会专栏 丨 投资小红书 丨 e公司调查 丨 时报会客厅 丨 十大明星私募访谈 丨 冲上热搜！泡泡玛特紧急公告：停售！ 丨 广汽集团，重磅官宣！ 丨 重大交易，有条件"放行"！ 刚刚，特朗普 ...

当地时间6月14日，俄罗斯总统助理乌沙科夫表示，当天俄罗斯总统普京与美国总统特朗普进行 了通话，通话持续约50分钟。在通话中，双方讨论了以色列与伊朗间的紧张局势。普京向特朗 普介绍了与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡和伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬的通话情况。 综合自：央视新闻 责编：叶舒筠 校对： 王锦程 版权声明 双方在通话中强调了防止中东冲突升级的必要性。普京谴责了以色列对伊朗的军事行动，并表达了对冲 突可能升级的严重关切。 普京还提到，俄罗斯准备调解以色列与伊朗的冲突。 乌沙科夫透露，普京在通话中还向特朗普通报了俄罗斯和乌克兰执行伊斯坦布尔协议的情况。普京表 示，俄罗斯愿意在6月22日之后继续与乌克兰进行谈判。 特朗普表示，他希望俄乌冲突能尽快结束。特朗普还称中东局势令人担忧。他表示， 美国谈判代表愿与 伊朗就核问题恢复谈判。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes END 点击关键字可查看 潜望系列深度报道丨 股事会专栏 丨 投资小红书 丨 e公司调查 丨 时报会客厅 丨 十大明星私募访谈 丨 冲上热搜！泡泡玛特紧急公告：停售！ 丨 广汽集团，重磅官宣！ 丨 重大交易，有条件"放行"！ 刚 ...