Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company Zhejiang Natural (605080) with a target price based on the last closing price of 31.97 [1] Core Insights - The company's Q1 performance exceeded expectations, driven by new product launches and capacity releases, with a revenue of 3.6 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.4%, and a net profit of 0.96 billion yuan, up 148.3% year-on-year [4][7] - The outdoor sports industry is experiencing rapid growth, with the company positioned to benefit from the increasing penetration of TPU materials over PVC products and the emergence of new product categories [7] - The company has established a strategic focus on three core business areas: inflatable mattresses, waterproof/thermal bags, and water sports products, with expectations for stable growth and new market expansions [7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.7%, and a net profit of 190 million yuan, up 41.7% year-on-year [4][9] - The gross margin for 2024 was 33.7%, with a net profit margin of 18.5%, reflecting significant improvements in profitability due to effective cost control and operational efficiency [6][9] - The company forecasts revenues of 1.38 billion yuan in 2025, 2.01 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.57 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 270 million yuan, 380 million yuan, and 494 million yuan respectively [9][10] Operational Highlights - The company has shown significant improvement in its operational capabilities, with inventory turnover days reduced by 5.9 days to 112 days, and accounts receivable turnover days increased by 5.5 days to 63 days [6] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 improved to 38.8%, indicating enhanced profitability from operational efficiencies [6] Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is recognized for its technological strength and industry barriers, with a favorable outlook for continued growth in the outdoor sports supply chain [7] - The strategic expansion of production capacity in overseas locations such as Cambodia and Vietnam is expected to enhance profitability as orders increase [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Views - Short-term performance is expected to improve due to the release of overseas production capacity and new customer growth in the automotive leather segment, indicating potential earnings elasticity. Long-term, the company is expanding its export business into the sports industry, having entered the supply chains of global sports brands like Adidas and VF, which could enhance growth and valuation prospects. New businesses, such as Hongxing and Baotai, are positioned for high growth due to industry demand, contributing to the company's overall growth outlook. The projected net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is estimated at 170 million, 190 million, and 210 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 20%, 13%, and 11%, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16, 14, and 13 times [2][4][6]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.951 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 142 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year revenue increase of 9% but a decline in net profit by 24%. In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 937 million yuan and a net profit of 32 million yuan, showing significant growth compared to the previous year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 627 million yuan, with a net profit of 19 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year revenue increase of 5% but a decline in net profit by 45% [4][5][6]. Business Segment Analysis - The main business segment, focused on footwear and bags, is expected to see a slight decline in revenue due to a weak domestic consumption environment affecting the internal sales portion. Conversely, the automotive leather segment is projected to grow by 20% to 720 million yuan, driven by strong sales from core customers. The second-layer leather business is also expected to see significant revenue growth due to a resurgence in demand for retro styles, although profit margins may be impacted by raw material price fluctuations [5][6]. Profitability Insights - The overall gross margin for 2024 remained stable at 21.4%, with a slight increase of 0.02 percentage points year-on-year. However, asset impairment losses significantly impacted net profit, leading to a decline in net profit margin to 4.8%. In Q1 2025, the gross margin improved to 20.7%, but net profit margin decreased to 3.0% due to increased financial expenses and asset impairment losses [6][4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed financial performance for 2024, with revenue growth but a significant decline in net profit, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability amidst competitive pressures in the market [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 797 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.42%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 56 million yuan, down 30.51% year-on-year [1]. - The company's gross profit margin for 2024 was 25.52%, a decrease of 6.65 percentage points compared to the previous year [2]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 6.90%, down 5.71 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting increased competition and reduced profit margins [2]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The net cash flow from operating activities in 2024 was 31 million yuan, a decrease of 58.75% year-on-year, primarily due to rising product costs and increased procurement expenses [3]. - The net cash flow from investing activities was -284 million yuan, a decline of 433.73% year-on-year, attributed to the disposal of financial assets and investment returns [3]. - The net cash flow from financing activities increased to 133 million yuan, up 700.33% year-on-year, mainly due to increased bank borrowings [3]. Market Position and Product Offering - The company is a leading producer of mid-to-high-end flavoring agents in China, with a diverse product range including over 310 types of flavors, meeting various downstream application needs [4]. - The company has established stable relationships with major international flavor companies, ensuring a solid customer base and revenue growth [5]. - The global flavor and fragrance market is projected to grow, with the market size expected to reach approximately 32.1 billion USD by 2025, indicating a favorable environment for the company's growth [5][6]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its overseas market presence to mitigate geopolitical risks, with a new synthetic vanillin production line planned in Thailand [7]. - The Thai production facility has commenced full operations, contributing to performance growth, while domestic capacity expansion is underway [7]. - The company is adapting to new tariffs on imports, implementing a production adjustment plan to maintain competitiveness [7]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 1.406 billion yuan, 1.762 billion yuan, and 2.007 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding net profits of 223 million yuan, 294 million yuan, and 352 million yuan [8]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the expanding flavor and fragrance market and its new production capacities, leading to improved economic efficiency [8].

Group 1 - On May 16, major steel mills in Shandong reduced the procurement price of coke by 50 CNY/ton for wet quenching and 55 CNY/ton for dry quenching [1] - The national average price for first-grade coke is reported at 980 CNY/ton, while second-grade coke is at 1100 CNY/ton [2] - The futures market saw the main contract for coke close at 1445.5 CNY/ton, with a decline of 1.93% [2] Group 2 - As of May 15, the average daily production of coke from independent coking plants was 671,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.2% [3] - The total coke inventory across various sectors decreased to 1,039,490 tons, marking a 0.92% reduction and the lowest level in four months [3] - The overall inventory increase year-on-year is 17.41%, indicating a narrowing growth rate [3] Group 3 - Supply remains stable in major production areas, although some regions are experiencing production limits due to ongoing profit pressures [4] - Steel mills are managing low inventory levels, primarily replenishing based on immediate needs, while seasonal demand is expected to weaken [4] - The market is currently in a weak balance state with strong supply and weak demand, suggesting that coke prices may continue to fluctuate within a range [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Alumina, Aluminium, Tin, PTA, Short - fiber [1] - **Bearish**: Zinc, Manganese Ore, Coke, Coking Coal, Natural Rubber Latex From New Zealand, Crude Oil [1] - **Oscillating**: Equity Index, Gold, Copper, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Silicon Iron, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Printing, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Cotton, Bean Meal, Pulp, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, BR Rubber, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, Caustic Soda [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The results of the Sino - US trade talks exceeded market expectations, which improved market risk appetite and had a positive impact on multiple varieties, but short - term operations still need to be cautious [1]. - The weak economy and asset shortage are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The long - term upward logic of gold remains unchanged, while silver may be more resilient in the short term due to potential tariff impacts [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Equity Index**: Yesterday, large - cap stocks led the rise. Observe whether small and medium - cap stocks can achieve resonance and make up for the rise. In a structural market, long - position investors should be cautious [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: The short - term gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. - **Silver**: Generally follows gold. Unexpected tariff results will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term silver price may be more resilient than gold [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The joint statement of the Sino - US trade negotiations exceeded market expectations, which is positive for copper prices. However, the copper price has rebounded significantly recently, so be cautious about chasing high in the short term [1]. - **Aluminium and Alumina**: Aluminium prices continue to rebound. Alumina supply has increased, the supply - demand pattern has improved, and the short - term price may further rebound [1]. - **Zinc**: Terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and the inflow of imported goods has weakened the fundamentals. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities [1]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The US inflation cooled more than expected, and the Sino - US talks results exceeded expectations. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and there are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines. Nickel prices will oscillate in the short term, and there is still pressure from long - term excess of primary nickel. Stainless steel futures will oscillate and rebound in the short term, but there is still supply pressure in the long term [1]. - **Tin**: With the improvement of macro - sentiment, tin prices are expected to rebound. Continuously pay attention to the resumption of production in low - grade mines [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strengthening, demand is weakening, it has entered a low - valuation range, and the demand and inventory pressure have not been alleviated [1]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low due to the futures discounting the spot [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, inventory has continued to accumulate, and downstream buyers still maintain rigid demand purchases [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are in the window period of switching from the peak season to the off - season. The cost is loose, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the driving force for price rebound is insufficient [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is an expectation that pig iron production will peak, and pay attention to the pressure on steel products [1]. - **Manganese Ore**: There is still an expectation of decline due to the expected excess of manganese ore, and the pressure of warehouse receipts is heavy [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand has become tight [1]. - **Printing**: The supply - demand is weak, and with the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price will continue to be weak [1]. - **Soda Ash**: There are many maintenance operations in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is excess supply in the medium term, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply - demand is relatively excessive, and they are short - allocated in the sector. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 positive spread [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: The rise of crude oil and US biodiesel news drove the rise of palm oil. The Sino - US talks may drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. After the crude oil price falls, consider short - selling palm oil. The Sino - US talks are expected to be negative for soybean oil in terms of sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see for single - side operations [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit. The Sino - Canadian relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it may lead to a large decline. Consider buying volatility [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro - uncertainty is still strong. The domestic cotton textile industry has entered the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak oscillating trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar production [1]. - **Corn**: The spot price increase has slowed down, and the import corn auction has a negative impact on sentiment. The port inventory has decreased but is still at a high level. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the CO7 - C01 positive spread [1]. - **Bean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market is still digesting the pressure of spot and Brazilian selling, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the Sino - US trade negotiations on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Natural Rubber Latex From New Zealand**: The shipping volume from New Zealand has decreased, the terminal demand is still weak, and the overall bearish pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to short after a rebound [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The pig inventory is continuously recovering, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the breeding profit is generally good. The futures price is at a large discount to the spot price. Pay attention to the pace of future production capacity release and wait for spot price guidance [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil, Fuel Oil**: The results of the Sino - US trade negotiations exceeded market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. There is a demand for rebound and repair after the previous sharp decline [1]. - **Bitumen**: The cost is dragging down, the inventory accumulation slope has decreased, and the demand is slowly recovering [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The tariff negotiation is beneficial, and the cost is strongly supported. It will be strong in the short term, but there is a risk of price decline in the long term due to loose fundamentals and weak demand [1]. - **PTA**: The PX device is under intensive maintenance, the procurement demand for PX has increased, and the high load of polyester has supported the demand for PTA [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol device is under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, the basis has dropped rapidly, and market sentiment has subsided [1]. - **Short - fiber**: The slightly tight situation of PTA strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high - basis situation [1]. - **Styrene**: The improvement of Sino - US tariff policies has stimulated market speculative demand, the pure benzene price has gradually strengthened, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1]. - **Urea**: There are still positive expectations in the market, the downstream follow - up is okay, and the market negotiation focus has risen. However, due to price stability policies, the upward price space is limited [1]. - **Methanol**: The basis is strengthening, and the short - term price will oscillate strongly. The medium - long - term spot market may change from strong to weak oscillation [1]. - **PE, PP, PVC**: Macro - factors are positive, and they will oscillate strongly. PVC has a weak fundamental but may rebound in the short term [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, but the macro - positive factors support the futures price, which will oscillate [1]. - **Propane and Butane**: The CP has decreased, the MB has increased, and the regional price difference of propane has narrowed. Butane is in the seasonal off - season [1].

Group 1: Company Growth and Performance - The company anticipates new performance growth points from the gradual release of laboratory capacity established in previous periods [2] - The main business of the company, material analysis testing and instrumentation, is experiencing steady growth in 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 [3] Group 2: Talent Development and Innovation - The company has developed a comprehensive internal talent training system, including expert guidance and job rotation, and collaborates with major universities to attract top talent [2] - Continuous investment in research and development is being made to enhance the capabilities of the subsidiary, Nack Microbeam, particularly in high-end scientific instruments [6] Group 3: Market Position and Competition - The company emphasizes brand building and technological accumulation to maintain its competitive edge and profitability despite aggressive pricing strategies from competitors [4] - The company aims to provide integrated solutions and expand its testing service areas while accelerating the development and upgrade of high-end scientific instruments to increase market share [6] Group 4: Laboratory Expansion and Operations - The company has established testing laboratories in various locations across China, including Jiangsu, Shandong, Liaoning, Sichuan, Shaanxi, Hunan, and Hebei, with several now in stable operation [5] - The utilization rate of the newly operational laboratories in Jiangsu and Shenyang is steadily improving as the company focuses on releasing capacity and enhancing service offerings [5]

索通发展财务总监章夏威在今天下午举行的业绩说明会上表示，"公司产品下游需求旺盛， 2025年争取 实现预焙阳极产量340万吨、销量350万吨，同时湖北索通100万吨煅后焦项目产能逐步释放。为确保年 度目标达成，公司现阶段正全力推进生产工作，各生产线均处于满负荷运转状态。"（记者 汪斌） ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing significant challenges due to a decline in stock price and industry competition, but it remains committed to long-term growth and innovation despite short-term fluctuations [2][3][23]. Group 1: Company Performance - The company reported a main revenue of 1.382 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a slight increase of 0.07% year-on-year [25]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -42.7699 million yuan, an improvement of 51.09% year-on-year [25]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 3.86%, indicating a modest increase in profitability [25]. Group 2: Stock and Investment Strategies - The company has been exploring stock repurchase and shareholding increase strategies but has not yet implemented significant actions [2][3][4]. - The stock price has fallen significantly, currently trading far below net asset value, raising concerns among investors [2][3][13]. - The company is considering the impact of national policies on stock repurchase and is studying further actions [2][4][18]. Group 3: Industry Context - The BOPET industry is experiencing a concentrated release of production capacity, with an annual growth rate of over 20% in capacity release over the past three years [23]. - Despite the competitive landscape, the overall market demand in the industry is still growing at a rate of over 10% annually [23]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the BOPET industry, focusing on innovation and market expansion to maintain its competitive edge [23]. Group 4: Product Development and Market Strategy - The company is actively developing new products, with 32 new product development and technology projects planned for the year [19][25]. - The MLCC release film is expected to reach a production capacity of 500 million square meters, contributing significantly to revenue [24]. - The company is also exploring strategic partnerships with leading battery manufacturers to enhance its market position [19][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][9]. Core Views - The company is facing performance pressure in Q1 2025 due to rising raw material prices, but it is expected to benefit from long-term capacity release and growth in both the supporting and replacement segments [1][9]. - The company has strong growth potential from its Serbia base, with a projected EPS of RMB 1.46 for 2025 and RMB 1.68 for 2026, along with a new forecast of RMB 1.86 for 2027 [4][9]. - The target price is set at RMB 20.44, based on a 14x PE for 2025 [4][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue and net profit for 2024 are projected at RMB 22.06 billion and RMB 1.75 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 9.39% and 26.01% [4][9]. - For Q4 2024, revenue and net profit are expected to be RMB 6.11 billion and RMB 0.041 billion, showing year-on-year growth of 8.41% and a significant decline in net profit of 90.59% [4][9]. - In Q1 2025, revenue is projected at RMB 5.70 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 12.92%, while net profit is expected to decline by 22.78% to RMB 0.34 billion [4][9]. Production and Sales - The company’s tyre production for 2024 is expected to reach 89.12 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.65%, with sales volume at 85.45 million units, up 9.57% [4][9]. - In Q1 2025, tyre production and sales are projected at 23.03 million and 21.41 million units, respectively, with sales volume increasing by 12.78% year-on-year [4][9]. Strategic Developments - The company is advancing its "7+5" layout strategy, with the Serbia base now in production and supplying the European market [4][9]. - A new project in Brazil is planned, which will have a production capacity of 12 million semi-steel tyres, 2.4 million full-steel tyres, and other products [4][9].

原材料涨价致业绩承压，拟建巴西项目基地 玲珑轮胎(601966) ——玲珑轮胎 2024 年报及 2025Q1 季报点评 本报告导读： 原材料涨价致 2025Q1 业绩承压，塞尔维亚项目产能快速爬坡中，兵器公司公告拟 投建巴西项目。公司将持续受益于中长期产能释放，配套和替换端发力。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 20,165 | 22,058 | 24,932 | 26,942 | 28,205 | | (+/-)% | 18.6% | 9.4% | 13.0% | 8.1% | 4.7% | | 净利润（归母） | 1,391 | 1,752 | 2,134 | 2,462 | 2,717 | | (+/-)% | 376.9% | 26.0% | 21.8% | 15.3% | 10.4% | | 每股净收益（元） | 0.95 | 1.20 | 1.46 | 1.68 | 1.86 | | ...