尽管今年10月美国与中国就解除对稀土供应限制达成协议，但中国仍然限制向美国提供生产永磁材料所需的稀土元素。根据彭博社12月24日的报道，该消息 来源于市场参与者的透露。 诺维昂磁业公司的联合创始人斯科特·邓恩指出，除了中国之外，全球其他地区的年产永磁材料的能力约为5万吨。然而，中国以外地区的稀土矿产资源远不 足以支持如此大的生产规模。 12月18日，中国商务部新闻发言人何亚东就稀土相关出口管制的最新情况做出回应。何亚东表示，自从实施稀土出口管制以来，中国相关主管部门已向出口 商进行了政策解读，并随着经验的积累，部分中国出口商已经达到了申请通用许可的基本要求。据了解，目前已有部分中国出口商提交的通用许可申请已获 得批准。 报道中提到，多位消费者、制造商、政府官员和贸易专家表示，尽管中国已增加了成品（主要是永磁材料）的供应量，美国工业仍然无法获得生产这些产品 所需的原材料，而这正是美国政府的一项重要优先事项。 ...

Core Conclusions - The small metal sector is expected to benefit from the rising demand in the AI industry, presenting new investment opportunities [6] - The report maintains an "overweight" rating for the small metal sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [7] Industry Overview - The small metal sector significantly outperformed the market in 2025, with an annual cumulative return of 83.54%, surpassing the cumulative return of the Shenwan Nonferrous Metals Index (82.05%) and the CSI 300 Index (20%) [10][13] - The rare earth sector is projected to maintain an upward trend in 2026 due to strong demand recovery and supply-side policy constraints, indicating that the industry cycle is not yet over [10] - The tungsten market is entering a new price cycle driven by supply constraints and emerging demand, suggesting a strategic value for investors [10] - The antimony market is experiencing a new phase characterized by supply rigidities and policy relaxations, with potential price increases anticipated in 2026 [10] - The tin market is also entering a new phase with supply constraints and demand upgrades, indicating a resilient supply-demand balance [10] - The demand for new metal materials is expected to grow alongside the rapid development of the AI industry, particularly for permanent magnetic materials and high-end copper alloys [10] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the rare earth sector include Northern Rare Earth, Zhenghai Magnetic Materials, and Jinli Permanent Magnet, with a focus on China Rare Earth and Shenghe Resources [6] - For tungsten, attention is drawn to Zhongtung High-tech and Xiamen Tungsten [6] - In the antimony sector, recommended stocks include Huayu Mining, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Hunan Gold [6] - For tin, focus on Tin Industry Co. and Huaxi Nonferrous [6] - In the new materials sector, recommended stocks include Bowei Alloy and Srey New Materials [6] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The rare earth industry is experiencing a strong price increase driven by supply-side constraints and a recovery in export demand, with the price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide increasing by 45.49% in 2025 [31] - The global rare earth production is expected to grow moderately, with China's production leading the market, indicating a dominant position in both production and reserves [41] - Domestic supply indicators for light rare earths are showing a significant slowdown in growth, with the supply structure increasingly dominated by major players [48]

Core Viewpoint - The recent block trade of Jinli Permanent Magnet on December 12 indicates significant institutional activity, with a total transaction amount of 5.1264 million yuan and a trading price of 35.04 yuan, reflecting a stable market interest in the stock [1] Trading Activity - On December 12, a block trade occurred with a volume of 146,300 shares and a transaction value of 5.1264 million yuan, executed at a price of 35.04 yuan, which was equal to the closing price of the day [1] - Over the past three months, Jinli Permanent Magnet has recorded a total of 59 block trades, amounting to 299 million yuan [1] Stock Performance - The closing price of Jinli Permanent Magnet on the day of the block trade was 35.04 yuan, representing a 1.39% increase, with a daily turnover rate of 3.48% and a total trading volume of 1.366 billion yuan [1] - In the last five days, the stock has experienced a cumulative decline of 3.84%, with a net outflow of funds totaling 273 million yuan [1] Margin Financing - The latest margin financing balance for Jinli Permanent Magnet stands at 1.701 billion yuan, having increased by 136 million yuan over the past five days, which is an increase of 8.70% [1] Analyst Ratings - In the last five days, one institution has provided a rating for the stock, with the highest target price set at 38.50 yuan by Guotou Securities, as reported on December 10 [1]

国投证券研报指出，金力永磁2025年前三季度实现营业收入53.73亿元，同比增长7.16%；其中，2025年 Q3营业收入18.66亿元，同比增长12.91%。营业收入增加主因：1）新能源车和节能空调两大板块的销 量增加，对应销量同比增长分别为23.46%和18.48%；2）海外业务保持增长，尤其是美国市场，前三季 度公司对美国出口收入3.54亿元，同比增长43.92%。前三季度公司整体毛利率为19.49%，同比增长 9.46pct。主因新建产能陆续释放带来的规模效应和产品结构优化，叠加公司通过灵活调整库存策略，应 对原材料价格波动，平滑成本端压力。目前股价对应PE为68.1、49.7、40.3倍，公司维持"买入-A"评 级，6个月目标价为38.5元/股，对应26年PE约55倍。 ...

费用端投入扩大，业绩端同比大增。 我们预计公司2025-2027 年实现营业收入分别为91.03、113.43、136.89 亿元，实现净利润7.06、9.66、 11.92 亿元，对应EPS 分别为0.51、0.70、0.87 元/股，目前股价对应PE 为68.1、49.7、40.3倍，公司维 持"买入-A"评级，6 个月目标价为38.5 元/股，对应26 年PE 约55 倍。 公司前三季度期间费用率为9.34%，同比上升2.24pct。其中，销售费用率0.76%，同比上升0.10pct，主 要与市场拓展投入增加有关；管理费用率2.92%，同比上升0.59pct，主要系股权激励费用增加；研发费 用率5.88%，同比上升1.29pct，对应公司加大技术研发及原材料投入；财务费用率为-0.22%，同比上升 0.26pct，利息支出增加但仍被利息收入对冲。综上，费用端投入加大支撑业务拓展和研发投入，在毛利 率显著改善带动下，前三季度实现归母净利润5.15 亿元，同比增长161.81%，Q3 归母净利润2.11 亿 元，同比增长172.65%。 风险提示：原材料价格，需求不及预期，宏观政策扰动等。 通用出口许可证落 ...

Group 1: Technological Breakthroughs - The production of neodymium-iron-boron alloy ultra-fine permanent magnetic powder has achieved a particle size of 5-10 microns, showcasing high oxidation resistance and magnetic properties, which are essential for applications in information recording and anti-counterfeiting [2][3] - The company invests over 6% of its revenue annually in R&D and collaborates with Guizhou University for innovation, leading to the international competitiveness of its products since starting mass production in 2020 [3] Group 2: Process Innovations - The transformation of traditional quartz sand production into a green and environmentally friendly process has been achieved by investing 13.9% of total investment in dust removal equipment, resulting in a cleaner production environment [4] - The company has developed a unique water recycling system that ensures wastewater clarity exceeds national standards, contributing to sustainable production practices [4] - The production of frac sand, essential for increasing oil extraction, has broken the domestic monopoly, with daily production reaching 3,000 tons, indicating strong demand from major oil companies [4][5]

Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company's operating revenue reached 5.373 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.16% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 515 million, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 161.81% [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 430 million, showing a remarkable year-on-year growth of 381.94% [1] - For Q3 2025, the single-quarter operating revenue was 1.866 billion, up 12.91% year-on-year and 6.45% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was 211 million, with a year-on-year increase of 172.65% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 45.75% [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses for Q3 was 196 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 254.98% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 53.04% [1] Capacity and Business Optimization - The company steadily released new production capacity in the first three quarters of 2025, with sufficient capacity utilization [1] - Sales revenue in the new energy vehicles and auto parts sector reached 2.615 billion, with a corresponding sales volume growth of 23.46% year-on-year [1] - Sales revenue in the energy-saving variable frequency air conditioning sector was 1.446 billion, with a corresponding sales volume growth of 18.48% year-on-year [1] - The company continues to expand its products in multiple high-growth areas, optimizing its business structure [1] Strategic Partnerships and International Expansion - The company has established long-term stable partnerships with leading domestic and international enterprises across various fields, including new energy vehicles, energy-saving variable frequency air conditioning, wind power generation, robotics, industrial servo motors, 3C, and energy-saving elevators [1] - The quality of the company's products, technical strength, and delivery capabilities have received high recognition from customers [1] - The company has become a key enterprise partner for the Hong Kong SAR government's introduction of key enterprises, further expanding its international cooperation network [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jinli Permanent Magnet's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 515 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 161.81% [1] - The company reported a single-quarter net profit of 211 million yuan in Q3 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 172.65% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 45.75% [1] Business Performance - The company is actively expanding into emerging sectors, with a continuous optimization of its business structure [1] - Jinli Permanent Magnet has established long-term stable partnerships with leading domestic and international companies across various high-growth fields, including new energy vehicles, energy-efficient variable frequency air conditioning, wind power generation, robotics, industrial servo motors, 3C, and energy-saving elevators [1] Product and Market Recognition - The quality of the company's products, technical strength, and delivery capability have received high recognition from customers [1] - Jinli Permanent Magnet has become a key enterprise partner in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government's initiative to attract important enterprises, further expanding its international market cooperation network [1] Investment Rating - The company maintains a "Buy" rating based on its strong performance and growth prospects [1]

Core Insights - The China Rare Earth sector is experiencing significant growth, with both China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth reporting substantial increases in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a strong industry recovery [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The China National New State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy Index decreased by 0.08% as of October 30, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [3]. - China Rare Earth led the gains with a rise of 5.35%, while Tian Di Technology saw the largest decline at 4.21% [3]. - The China National New State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy ETF (561790) increased by 0.08%, with a recent price of 1.27 yuan, and has seen a cumulative increase of 4.87% over the past week [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - China Rare Earth reported a revenue of 2.494 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27.73%, and a net profit of 192 million yuan, up 194.67% [3][4]. - Northern Rare Earth achieved a revenue of 30.292 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 40.50%, and a net profit of 1.541 billion yuan, which is an increase of 280.27% [4]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The rare earth sector is positioned as a core resource for high-end manufacturing and strategic emerging industries, with supply and demand dynamics showing a resonant pattern [4]. - China's quota management and export controls are enhancing strategic control over the industry, ensuring resources are directed towards high-end applications [4]. - The global green transition and dual carbon goals are driving demand for key elements like praseodymium and neodymium, facilitating rapid expansion in new applications such as permanent magnetic materials [4]. Group 4: ETF Metrics - The latest scale of the China National New State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy ETF reached 50.7361 million yuan, marking a three-month high [4]. - The ETF's latest share count is 39.934 million shares, achieving a one-month high [4]. - The ETF closely tracks the China National New State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy Index, which includes 50 listed companies involved in modern energy industries [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The company Xinlaifu (301323.SZ) plans to acquire 100% equity of Guangzhou Jinnan Magnetic Materials Co., Ltd. controlled by its actual controller Wang Xiaoming for a total price of 1.054 billion yuan, raising matching funds, but the deal is surrounded by controversies regarding related party transactions, inefficient use of funds, fluctuating profitability of the target asset, and questionable financial data [1][2][3]. Related Party Transactions - The acquisition involves complex related party relationships, essentially representing an "internal asset integration" by Wang Xiaoming, the actual controller of Xinlaifu [2][3]. - Wang Xiaoming indirectly controls Jinnan Magnetic Materials through multiple entities, including Shengci Technology (50% stake), Guangzhou Yishang (24% stake), and Jinchenglai (11% stake), with significant overlap in actual control [2][3]. Fund Utilization Issues - Xinlaifu has a significant amount of idle funds, with a total of 1.053 billion yuan in cash and near-zero interest-bearing liabilities, leading to questions about the rationale behind the acquisition [6][7]. - Since its IPO in May 2023, Xinlaifu's performance has been slow, with net profit growth of only 7.96% and 5.17% for 2023 and 2024, respectively, and a decline in net profit despite revenue growth in the first half of 2025 [6][7]. Profitability of Target Asset - Jinnan Magnetic Materials, primarily engaged in the production of permanent magnetic materials, has shown fluctuating profitability, with net profits of 52.45 million yuan, 81.46 million yuan, and 21.14 million yuan for 2023, 2024, and the first four months of 2025, respectively [9][10]. - The gross profit margin of Jinnan Magnetic Materials has varied significantly, with a notable increase in 2024 due to a temporary drop in raw material prices, raising concerns about sustainability [9][10]. Supplier Transaction Discrepancies - There are discrepancies in the procurement amounts reported by Jinnan Magnetic Materials and its largest supplier, Zhejiang Ante Magnetic Materials Co., Ltd., with significant differences in reported figures for 2023 and 2024 [11][12][13]. - The procurement amounts from Ante Magnetic Materials accounted for approximately 30% of Jinnan Magnetic Materials' total procurement, indicating a critical impact on cost control [11]. Performance Commitment Concerns - The performance compensation agreement for the acquisition has raised doubts, as the profit targets set for 2025 are lower than the actual profit achieved in 2024, suggesting a lack of confidence in future growth [15][16]. - The net assets of the performance commitment parties are significantly lower than the transaction price, raising concerns about their ability to fulfill compensation obligations if performance targets are not met [15][16].