固定收益 | 固定收益专题 2025 年 06 月 27 日 作者 谭逸鸣 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525050005 tanyiming@tfzq.com 唐海清 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110517030002 tanghaiqing@tfzq.com 裴明楠 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525060004 peimingnan@tfzq.com 近期报告 1 《固定收益：信用主体骑乘库一览- 信用策略系列》 2025-06-26 美国经济观察 美国到"衰退"门槛还有多远？ 从 NBER 六大指标看，美国经济尚无"衰退"信号。今年 3 月以来，市场 持续下调美国经济增速预期，美国一季度 GDP 增速下修至-0.5%。美国经 济是否真的被"透支"空了呢？ NBER 采用 6 个底层指标判定"经济衰退 期"，截至今年 4 月，仅有 1 项指标进入明确下行趋势，4 项处于波动，1 项仍在上行趋势。 一季度美国 GDP 负增长是"技术性"现象。一季度美国 GDP 修正值-0.5% （季调环比折年率，下同），主因企业在关税前囤货，贸易逆差大增，"净 出口"拖累 GDP 增速 4 ...

这位财政部长还重申了他5月份向国会领导人发出的指导意见，即他们必须尽快在预定的8月休会前采取 行动，提高或暂停债务上限。 周三致众议院议长迈克·约翰逊及其他国会领导人的这封信是必要的，因为财政部此前的"债务发行暂停 期"——一个授权其动用特别会计措施以维持在债务上限内的声明将于6月27日到期。 美国财政部长贝森特告知美国国会议员，他将把最新的实施特别会计措施的期限延长到2025年7月24 日，以保持债务不会突破上限。 "X日"的估算 贝森特曾表示，他相信国会可以在7月4日前完成该法案，届时政府"可以完成自特朗普总统于4月2日宣 布对数十个国家征收所谓对等关税以来一直在进行的贸易协议"。 特朗普本人则建议，议员们应该被锁在一个房间里，放弃他们的假期来完成这项法案。 独立分析师估计，财政部至少可以将其支付需求管理到8月份。摩根大通的策略师最近表示，他们对所 谓的"X日"——即财政部耗尽其及时支付所有联邦款项能力的那一天的预测是9月2日。两党政策中心则 认为，"X日"将介于8月15日至10月3日之间。 长期关注财政部账目的专家Lou Crandall在6月23日给客户的一份报告中写道，9月15日是"我们最好的猜 测 ...

美国财长贝森特：美国国会必须在8月休会前就债务上限采取行动。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, emphasized that the country will never default on its national debt, highlighting the urgency as the debt ceiling approaches a critical limit [1] Group 1 - The U.S. national debt is nearing its limit, raising concerns about potential financial implications [1] - Janet Yellen's statement reinforces the government's commitment to meet its debt obligations, aiming to reassure investors and markets [1]

美国财长贝森特：（就债务上限）我们有望在周五按计划进行投票。 ...

美国财长贝森特：如果法院干涉特朗普的关税措施，债务上限的X日期可能会改变。 ...

美国财长贝森特谈债务上限问题称，未来48小时内会有进展。 ...

美国总统特朗普：我们正在解决债务上限问题。 ...

点击蓝字，关注我们 特朗普的支出与税改法案若最终通过实施，未来十年将使联邦债务增加2.8万亿美元 智通财经 APP 获悉，美国国会预算办公室 (CBO) 与国会联合税收委员会 (JCT) 近日联合发布的一项 评估显示， 特朗普的支出与税改法案若最终通过实施，未来十年将使联邦债务增加 2.8 万亿美元。 此前 CBO 曾做出不含宏观经济影响的初步评估， 预计该法案将在 2025 年至 2034 年间增加 2.4 万亿 美元的联邦债务。 而最新版本则将经济增长和利率变化纳入考虑，得出更高的预算赤字估算。 具体而言， CBO 预计该法案将在未来十年内推动实际 GDP 增长 0.5 个百分点，但也将使 10 年期美 国国债利率上升 0.14 个百分点。 利率上升导致的借款成本增长超过了经济增长带来的税收收入增 加，从而加剧了财政赤字。 在包括政府新增借款需求的估算后， CBO 预计该法案将在 2034 年前使公共持有的联邦债务增加 3.3 万亿美元，占 GDP 的比重将上升至 124%，高于 CBO 当前预测基线下的 117%。 白宫方面暂未对 CBO 的评估作出回应。此前白宫官员曾表示，CBO 的计算方法存在问题， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 16, the central bank had continuous net injections, keeping the funds in the tax - payment period loose. The bond market was mainly in a volatile state, with short - term bonds performing slightly stronger. The main indices of the convertible bond market collectively rose, and most convertible bond individual securities increased. Yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities generally went up, while yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally declined [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - In May, the national economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year - on - year. From January to May, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 3.7% year - on - year [3]. - In May, housing prices in all tiers of cities decreased month - on - month, but the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. From January to May, the sales area and sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 2.9% and 3.8% year - on - year respectively [4]. - The central bank launched two outright reverse repurchase operations in June, achieving a net injection of 200 billion yuan. It will also issue 30 billion yuan of central bank bills in Hong Kong on June 18 [5][6]. - The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors issued a notice to standardize the issuance and underwriting of the inter - bank bond market and held a symposium to support the high - quality development of automobile enterprises [6]. 3.1.2 International News - The Senate version of the Republican bill proposed to raise the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, up from the $4 trillion in the House - passed version. It also made three corporate tax breaks permanent. The Senate is expected to vote on the draft next week [7]. - On June 16, WTI July crude oil futures fell 1.66% to $71.77 per barrel, Brent August crude oil futures fell 1.35% to $73.23 per barrel, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 3.63% to $3.741 per ounce [8]. 3.2 Funds 3.2.1 Open - Market Operations - On June 16, the central bank conducted 242 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 173.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net injection of funds was 68.2 billion yuan [10]. 3.2.2 Funds Rates - On June 16, the central bank's continuous net injections kept the funds in the tax - payment period loose. DR001 decreased by 2.16bp to 1.391%, and DR007 increased by 2.41bp to 1.526%. Other rates also showed different changes [11][12]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Rate Bonds - The bond market was mainly volatile on June 16, with short - term bonds performing slightly stronger. Yields of some active bonds showed different changes, such as the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250011's yield declining by 0.20bp to 1.6400%, and the 10 - year China Development Bank bond active bond 250210's yield rising by 1.15bp to 1.7150% [13][14]. - Information on bond tendering includes details such as the term, issuance scale, winning yield, and multiples of several bonds [15]. 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - On June 16, the trading prices of 2 industrial bonds and 1 urban investment bond deviated by more than 10%. For example, "21 Zhengtou PPN001" fell by more than 49%, and "H9 Longkong 01" rose by more than 48% [15][16]. - There were various credit - bond events, including announcements from companies such as Oceanwide Capital, Ganglong China Real Estate, and Fangyuan Real Estate [19]. 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - On June 16, the three major A - share indices all closed up, and the main indices of the convertible bond market also followed suit. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 69.161 billion yuan, an increase of 6.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Most individual convertible bonds rose [18][19][20]. - There were announcements such as the listing of Hengshuai Convertible Bond on June 17 and Huicheng Convertible Bond's announcement of not redeeming in advance [25]. 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - In the U.S. Treasury bond market on June 16, yields across various maturities generally increased. The yield of the 2 - year U.S. Treasury bond rose 1bp to 3.97%, and the yield of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury bond rose 5bp to 4.46%. The yield spreads also changed [23][24]. - In the European bond market on June 16, yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally declined, such as Germany's 10 - year government bond yield falling 1bp to 2.53% [27]. - Information on the daily price changes of Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds shows the daily changes, credit subjects, and other details of the top 10 gainers and losers [29].