导读：黄金，在中国文化中有着特殊的地位。早在4000年之前的商周时期，黄金就是身份的标识。作为曾经的四大文 明古国，中国人以黄金作为货币的时间比纸币更长久。对黄金的投资，也是刻入大家骨子里的。 去年11月的一个周末，我带着儿子参加了一次同学聚会。有一个同学的妈妈知道我是做金融的，就来和我讨论怎么做投 资。那时候美国大选已经开始正式投票，特朗普当选的呼声很高。大家普遍的观点是，一旦特朗普当选会让世界格局重 新回到混沌的状态。 许多人都有自己投资黄金的故事，其中最精彩的或许是押注黄金15年的对冲基金大佬：约翰·保尔森（John Alfred Paulson）。。。。。。 史上最伟大的一笔交易者 虽然这些家长不是做金融的，但是对政治和历史也颇有研究。那天一个下午，我们从特朗普当选后的地缘政治冲突，一 直聊到美国债务问题如何解决，最后又谈到了2008年的金融危机。那一年无论是股票还是房子，都出现了暴跌。唯独 黄金是涨的。 约翰·保尔森这个名字，对于华尔街的"老人"应该并不陌生（注：和美国前财政部长亨利·保尔森是两个人）。他父母都 是美国移民，在纽约皇后区长大，本科去了纽约大学。一直到2005年之前，约翰·保尔森在投资 ...

Group 1 - A concerning signal is emerging in the global bond market as governments plan record levels of debt issuance while investors are quietly retreating [1][2] - The recent poor performance of Japan's 20-year government bond auction, with a bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 2.5, marks the worst result since 2012, indicating a significant decline in investor appetite [2][3] - The U.S. also faced a lackluster response in its 20-year bond auction, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.46, the lowest since February, reflecting a broader issue of diminishing demand for long-term government debt [2][4] Group 2 - The supply of long-term government bonds is increasing due to both government issuance and central bank sales, while demand is falling as traditional buyers like pension funds withdraw from the market [3][4] - In the UK, traditional defined benefit pension funds are no longer accepting new members, leading to a reduced demand for long-term debt, which is being replaced by hedge funds favoring short-term bonds [3][4] - Similar trends are observed in Japan, where the aging population is less inclined to hold long-term debt [3][4] Group 3 - The global imbalance of supply and demand for long-term bonds is evident, with T Rowe Price's Amanda Stitt noting that the era of cheap long-term financing has ended, leading to increased competition among governments for buyers [4][10] - Rising long-term bond yields are becoming a political issue, with increasing debt interest costs threatening government spending in various countries [10][11] - In the U.S., interest payments on public debt are projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time in fiscal year 2024, highlighting the growing burden of debt servicing [10][11] Group 4 - Governments are exploring options to manage the situation, such as issuing more short-term debt and reducing long-term debt sales, but experts warn that without significant economic growth, cutting excessive spending is the only sustainable solution [11][12] - Concerns are rising about a potential fiscal-driven stagnation, where increased government borrowing could crowd out private investment and lead to a prolonged low-growth scenario [11][12] - The future of global debt management hinges on whether governments can avoid a sudden reckoning, as indicated by the actions of the so-called "bond vigilantes" [11][12]

Economic Weakness: Financial Magic of Wall Street - The U.S. boasts a GDP exceeding $29 trillion, yet its manufacturing sector has shrunk to only 11% of the economy, relying on foreign countries like Japan for essential materials [4][6] - The comparison of purchasing power reveals that China accomplishes tasks with $18 trillion GDP that the U.S. requires $29 trillion to achieve [4] - During the pandemic, the U.S. struggled to produce basic medical supplies, highlighting a significant gap in capabilities compared to China [4] Military Illusion: Rusty Aircraft Carriers and Overpriced Supplies - Despite having 11 aircraft carriers, only about 4 are operational, with high failure rates in advanced systems like the Ford-class carrier [6] - The Pentagon faces corruption issues, with exorbitant prices for basic items, indicating inefficiencies in military spending [6] - The U.S. military's performance in conflicts has been poor, exemplified by the 20-year engagement in Afghanistan that ended with a swift Taliban takeover [6] Debt Crisis: $36 Trillion Debt Burden - The U.S. government faces immense pressure from daily interest payments of $2 billion, with total national debt sufficient to purchase the entire European Union [7][8] - A significant portion of the population lacks health insurance, and many middle-class families struggle to survive financially during unemployment [7] - The decline of the dollar's credibility is evident as countries increasingly turn to alternative currencies for trade, with central banks selling U.S. debt and accumulating gold [7]

Economic Overview - The GDP data for Q1 2025 shows the United States leading with a GDP of $7.32 trillion, followed by China at $4.44 trillion, Germany at $1.14 trillion, and Japan at $1.02 trillion [4][3][19] - The U.S. economy experienced a quarter-on-quarter contraction of 0.2% to 0.3%, marking the first decline in three years, while China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, the highest growth rate among major economies [3][19] United States Economic Analysis - The U.S. economy's GDP of $7.32 trillion reflects a significant figure, but it is accompanied by a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter shrinkage [4][3] - A surge in imports by 41% in Q1, driven by previous tariffs, temporarily boosted GDP but resulted in inventory accumulation, which negatively impacted GDP by 4.8 percentage points [7] - The U.S. federal government recorded a deficit of $700 billion in Q1, with total debt reaching $36 trillion, which is approximately 140% of GDP [9][11] Japan Economic Analysis - Japan's GDP for Q1 was approximately $1 trillion, but it faced a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.2%, marking the first negative growth in four quarters [11][14] - The Japanese economy has been adversely affected by international trade issues, particularly the U.S.-China trade war, leading to increased export costs and reduced profits for about 10% of companies [14][16] - Rising prices, such as a 60% increase in rice prices, have not translated into increased consumer spending, resulting in a decline in exports and a drop in GDP [16][18] China Economic Analysis - China's GDP growth of 5.4% in Q1 is attributed to the robust development of green energy, with renewable energy installations accounting for 90% of new capacity [21][19] - The digital economy also saw a significant increase, with a 9.4% year-on-year revenue growth, driven by emerging technologies like live-streaming and AI [21][23] - Despite a 4.6% increase in retail sales, there are concerns about real estate risks and income disparity, which may hinder domestic consumption [23][25] - China is transitioning from labor-intensive industries to technology-driven sectors, achieving notable progress in areas like new energy vehicles and semiconductors [25][29]

报道称，飙升的政府债务水平正成为G7国家的一个压力点，债券投资者将目光投向了那些在改善财政 状况方面做得不够的国家。IMF数据显示，预计未来五年，七国集团中有四个经济体的债务与gdp之比 将上升。 当穆迪评级5月剥夺了美国"最后一个AAA评级"，再加上日本国债拍卖遭遇16年来最冷遇时，全球债券 投资者的目光聚焦美国和日本的国债市场。 从市场表现来看，美国和日本国债市场的担忧居前，而英国、法国等其他G7国家的国债市场同样令投 资者担忧。 6月3日，据路透社报道，G7国家庞大的债务负担正成为市场新的压力点。虽然债务危机可能不是最基 本的情况，但警钟已开始敲响。 美国：从避风港到风暴眼 早在4月所谓"对等关税"之后，美国多次遭遇股债汇三杀，那时美债市场的剧烈抛售已经敲响警钟。除 了关税之外，特朗普的"大漂亮"法案更是令债务问题雪上加霜： 据无党派智库负责任联邦预算委员会（Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget）估算， 该法案到2034年可能使债务增加约3.3万亿美元。 5月穆迪的降级决定又给了美债一重击，而摩根大通CEO戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）日前警告债券市场出 ...

日本国债市场的异动，点燃了全球金融圈的警报。谁也没料到，最先崩的不是高负债的美国，而是它最大的债主之一——日本。几天 前，日本央行突然上调利率，本想稳住本币，结果没人接盘。真的是，一分钱都借不到。这场安静但致命的风暴，可能比任何一次金 融危机更可怕。 日本不是没有底牌，它手里还握着1万多亿美元的美债。真到了山穷水尽的地步，为了保汇率，保经济，不抛是不可能的。问题是， 一旦日本开卖，市场情绪会彻底失控。美国国债市场是靠信心撑着的，哪怕是风吹草动，利率就飙，美元就跌。更别提世界第一大债 主在这个时候砸盘。美债价格可能瞬间崩出一个大洞，谁接盘？没人愿意当接盘侠。 我们看到的不只是一个国家的债务困局，更是一整套金融游戏的崩塌。长期以来，美国靠着全球美元信用输出赤字，借钱过日子。可 今天，不只是日本，连英国都在撑不下去了。这两个是美债最大的买家。而连他们都快被自己的债务压垮。 汽车要是塌了，日本的财政收入就真的要断流。还债没钱，借钱没人肯借，只剩最后一招：卖美元，换日元，救自己。这就是最危险 的一步。一旦开始，美国挡不住，全球挡不住，美元体系可能会被拖下水。 而此时此刻，美国还在搞加税，搞制裁，试图靠贸易战反补财政，这 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the decline of the United States is evident, marked by the downgrade of U.S. debt ratings by major agencies, indicating a significant shift in its global standing [1][3] - The U.S. national debt has reached $36 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion, projected to consume 6.7% of GDP by mid-century, highlighting an unsustainable debt situation [3][5] - The industrial hollowing out of the U.S. is irreversible, with its industrial output dropping from 40% of global production to 15%, significantly lagging behind China [3][5] Group 2 - The decline of the U.S. is both absolute and relative, with China's rapid industrialization and economic growth making the U.S. appear diminished in comparison [5][6] - The root causes of the U.S. decline are internal, particularly the unsustainable debt crisis and industrial hollowing, rather than external factors like China's rise [5][6] - The greed of capital is identified as a fundamental reason for the U.S. decline, stemming from the abandonment of the gold standard and the shift towards debt expansion [6][8] Group 3 - The U.S. faces inevitable trade deficits due to the need to maintain dollar hegemony, leading to increased borrowing and a worsening debt crisis [8] - The reliance on cheap currency for resource acquisition has contributed to the industrial hollowing out, making U.S. production less competitive [8] - The decline of the U.S. is deemed inevitable, with China's rise seen as a historical consequence rather than a primary cause [8]

老王的日子不好过啊！ 这已是老王两年内第N次"挥泪甩卖"，网友辣评："首富的家底，快被掏成毛坯房了！" 卖楼、质押、还债，他在"断臂求生"。 5月25日，曝出王健林再卖48座万达广场。 从"首富"到"首负"？ 万达的债务危机，早已不是秘密。 截至2025年，万达商管有息负债高达1412亿元，账上现金仅116亿，光是2025年到期的债务就有400亿。 两年内，万达甩卖超80座广场，2025年一口气打包48座给太盟、腾讯等财团，估值约500亿。连北京、广州等一线城市的"地标"也难逃易主命运。 根据报道，有新华保险、阳光人寿等"接盘侠"疯狂扫货，部分广场售价较峰值腰斩40%，网友戏称："万达广场快成保险公司的'理财产品'了！" 东京拍卖日本年度第一份海胆，王少轻飘飘一句"就想吃口新鲜的"，评论区炸锅："我吃35块的海胆拉肚子，他吃35万的能长生不老？" sicong 33分钟 care 文章 六六十四 11 7年 73 t 2017-02-04 11:42:14 14:14:14 14:14 14:14 14:14 14:13:14 14:14 壳 波 限 0001 山治A23 8 11 7 7 当分 法 うに 7 ...

瑞士经济学家、长期投资者麦嘉华（Marc Faber）几十年来一直在购买黄金，并一直建议其他人囤积黄 金。 这位黄金爱好者经常出现在视频中，宣扬黄金的优点，同时对经济崩溃发出警报。他正关注一系列即将 到来的危机：债务危机、资产价格暴跌和通胀飙升。 "我的感觉是，债务危机是不可避免的，"他说，并补充说他定期购买黄金，黄金占其总投资组合的 25%。 麦嘉华的客户也将很大一部分财富以黄金形式持有，但今年助推金价上涨的抢购黄金热潮正蔓延到更多 普通投资者。 Rose说，更多投资黄金的客户也要求将黄金寄给他们，他估计坚持持有实物黄金的公司客户数量已从过 去几年的20%上升到70%。 Rose说，Genesis的大多数客户希望在经济崩溃时能够自给自足，但并非所有人都那么极端。多年来， 越来越多普通人也来找他，他们担心美元、通胀以及股票等风险资产的波动性。 他谈到他们对黄金的兴趣时说："他们有一个备灾计划，这些人只是普通人，购买黄金寻求一种对冲。" 尽管如此，只要人们对经济感到不确定，对黄金的需求就会保持强劲。即使贸易协议得以达成，一些分 析师也相信投资者仍会感到不安，在谈到黄金的价格动能时，一些分析师说："事情越是艰难， ...

那么，希腊为何会陷入如此困境？欧洲国家究竟做了些什么？而中国又是如何帮助希腊走出困境的呢？ 2007年，美国爆发了次贷危机，这场危机迅速波及欧盟、日本等地区，并最终演变为一场全球性的金融危机。金融危机对世界经济造成了深远的影响，希腊 无疑是最早受到冲击的国家之一。 2009年，全球发生了一场震动世界的大事件，发达国家希腊面临了前所未有的债务危机，几乎走到了破产的边缘。就在此时，欧洲各国纷纷视希腊为累赘， 有些国家甚至在考虑为稳定欧元，是否应该将希腊踢出欧元区。然而，令所有人惊讶的是，最终帮助希腊摆脱困境的是中国。 除了希腊，葡萄牙、爱尔兰、西班牙等国也面临债务危机，许多国家的经济状况堪忧。希腊政府采取了一些紧缩措施，如减少公共支出、改革税收等，但这 些措施收效甚微。最终，希腊不得不向其他国家和组织寻求援助。尽管许多国家同情希腊，但由于其信用评级低下，援助的可行性受到质疑。更有人提出， 要将希腊从欧元区中剔除，认为对其援助无济于事。 到2009年12月，希腊宣布，他们已经陷入了财政赤字的困境，几乎到了破产的边缘。在此之前，很多国家认为，虽然希腊遭遇金融危机，但凭借其强大的经 济基础，希腊能够通过调整财政自我恢复 ...