美国总统特朗普在会谈之前当着记者告诉欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩，美方对欧盟关税不会低于15%，潜 在协议不包含医药。 比特币达到12万美元，目前涨幅1.3%，日内迄今整体涨超1500美元。 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越、王茂宇、赵宇 联系人 | 李欣越 大类资产&海外事件&数据：美日关税协议达成，发达市场多数上涨 发达市场延续上涨，焦煤大幅上行。 当周，标普500上涨1.5%，日经225上涨4.1%；10Y美债收益率下行 4.0bp至4.4%；美元指数下跌0.8%至97.67，离岸人民币升值至7.1681；WTI原油下跌3.2%至65.2美元/桶， COMEX黄金下跌0.6%至3329.1美元/盎司。 美国与日本、印尼、菲律宾三国敲定贸易协定。 日本方面，美国将对日本征收15%关税，低于此前威胁 的25%。日本承诺向美国投资5500 亿美元。印尼方面，美国将对印尼征收19%关税，低于此前威胁的 25%。菲律宾方面，美方将原定的20%关税降至19%。 美国7月Markit制造业PMI回落，欧央行维持利率不变。 美国7月Markit制造业PMI为49.5，市场预期 52.7，关税对于美国工业生产的扰动仍然存在。欧央行7月会议维持利率不变，符合市场预期，主因通胀 回到目标，经济表现符合预期。关注下周7月美联储FOMC例会。 风险提示 摘要 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓 ...

特朗普25日在离开白宫前往苏格兰之前对记者说："我想说，我们有50%的机会——也许比这个少—— 但有50%的机会与欧盟达成协议。" （原标题：突然全线拉升！特朗普前往英国，将与欧盟商谈关税！） 7月26日，加密货币全线拉升，比特币涨超2%突破118000美元，以太坊涨破3700美元。 过去的24小时，全球共有超7.7万人爆仓。 消息面上，据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普25日动身前往英国苏格兰地区，将在5天的行程期间为一家 高尔夫球场剪彩，与欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩商谈关税事宜，并将会见英国首相斯塔默。 4月宣布设定"对等关税"谈判窗口期时，白宫宣称可以"在90天内达成90份协议"。然而，已被延长一次 的谈判窗口期即将于8月1日结束，美方眼下宣称达成的贸易协议仅有5份。特朗普25日说，他有信心在8 月1日前与大部分国家达成协议。此外，他还称将在未来一周广发信函，"敲定"关税协议。 多名欧盟外交官向媒体透露，欧盟和美国正在接近达成协议，美国可能将对欧盟商品征收15%的关税 ——与日本和美国本周谈成的关税税率相同，关键行业可能获得豁免。白宫警告说，目前任何关于协议 的讨论都只是推测性的。 7月初，特朗普先后致信20多个 ...

Market Performance - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached record closing highs, with the S&P 500 up 1.5% for the week and achieving a "perfect week" for the first time since November 2021 [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.47% to close at 44,901.92 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at 6,388.64 points and 21,108.32 points, respectively [1] Company Performance - Microsoft shares increased by 0.55%, reaching a historic closing high of $513.71, while Intel's stock fell by 8.5% to $24.20 due to disappointing Q2 earnings [2] - Intel reported Q2 revenue of $12.9 billion, which was flat year-over-year but exceeded market expectations of $11.92 billion; however, it posted a net loss of $400 million compared to a profit of $100 million in the same period last year [2] - Other tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Nvidia down 0.14% and AMD up 2.68% [2] Economic Outlook - Market focus is shifting to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged; a 60% probability of a rate cut in September is being priced in [3] - Over 150 S&P 500 companies are set to report earnings next week, with analysts predicting a 7.7% year-over-year growth in overall earnings for the index, driven primarily by the technology sector [3] Commodity Market - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude oil futures down 1.32% to $65.16 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.02% to $67.66 per barrel [3]

大众汽车CEO：可以提供巨额投资以换取更好的关税协议，可能会实现对美出口。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent tariff agreement between the US and the Philippines appears to favor the US significantly, with the Philippines reducing tariffs to zero while the US only lowers tariffs from 20% to 19%, indicating a potential loss for the Philippines [1] Group 1: Tariff Agreement - The US has reduced tariffs on Philippine goods from 20% to 19%, while the Philippines has eliminated tariffs on US goods entirely [1] - The agreement is framed as a "win-win" by the US, but a closer analysis suggests that the Philippines is at a disadvantage [1] Group 2: Military Cooperation - The tariff agreement is accompanied by increased military cooperation, with the US planning to deploy missile systems in the Philippines, positioning the country as a forward base against China [3] - The Philippines is expected to finance the purchase of US military equipment, leading to rising defense expenditures [3] Group 3: Domestic Concerns - There is significant internal dissent within the Philippine military regarding the agreement, with some officials expressing concerns that the Philippines may become a pawn in US geopolitical strategies [5] - The Philippine government maintains that its actions are in the national interest, despite rising costs for military equipment compared to other countries [5] Group 4: Economic Implications - The tariff concessions have raised concerns among local businesses about competitiveness, while the high costs of military procurement are straining the economy [7] - Ordinary citizens are worried about the potential negative impact on key industries such as fishing and tourism if relations with China deteriorate further [7] Group 5: Strategic Positioning - The Philippines' current strategy of balancing relations with both the US and China may not be sustainable, as military and economic ties with the US deepen [9] - The potential for the Philippines to be caught in a conflict between the US and China raises questions about its long-term sovereignty and security [9]

韩国总统办公室：高级官员在周五的会议上分析了日本和美国之间的关税协议。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The oil market has continued the inventory accumulation trend since the third - quarter peak season, with supply - demand surplus pressure due to OPEC+ production increases. Oil prices are mainly under pressure in the short term but may be supported by geopolitical factors later [2]. - Precious metals are in a wide - range oscillation as economic data shows resilience and the probability of extreme tariff confrontation is decreasing [3]. - Different commodities have various trends influenced by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitical situations, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed for each commodity [2 - 49]. Summary by Categories Energy Crude Oil - Since the third - quarter peak season, the oil market has seen crude oil inventory decline by 0.6% and refined oil inventory increase by 1.7%. The supply - demand surplus pressure persists. Oil prices are under pressure in the short term but may be supported by geopolitical factors later [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The 18th round of EU sanctions on Russia has reduced the supply risk of high - sulfur resources. FU is relatively weak, and LU follows crude oil with less volatility [22]. Asphalt - It is supported at around 3590 yuan/ton. August refinery production is expected to decline, and demand recovery is delayed. Low inventory provides support but limits the upside [23]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Overseas market decline has driven the domestic market down. With weak supply and demand, the domestic market may stabilize, and the futures market is weak [24]. Metals Copper - The copper market is cautious, with resistance at the upper integer level. It is recommended to hold a short position lightly [4]. Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum market is in a narrow - range oscillation, with resistance at around 21,000 yuan. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. Zinc - Supported by cost, it oscillates around 23,000 yuan. There is a chance to go short at a high level [8]. Lead - With tight raw material supply and cost support, it shows limited downside. It is recommended to buy call options lightly [9]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel market is in the middle - late stage of a rebound. Wait for a short - selling opportunity [10]. Tin - The Shanghai tin market has risen above 270,000 yuan, but the long - term trend is not optimistic. Consider reducing short positions [11]. Manganese and Silicon - Manganese - Silicon - manganese inventory is decreasing, and it follows the trend of rebar with a relatively small increase [19]. Iron Ore - Supply is stable, and demand is resilient. It follows the black - series trend but is at a relatively high price [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - Both coking coal and coke are expected to maintain an upward trend in the short term [17][18]. Chemicals Urea - Agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season, and overall demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate [25]. Methanol - The futures market is strong, affected by policies. Inventory is decreasing, and attention should be paid to market rhythm [26]. Pure Benzene - Its price has strengthened, with seasonal improvement expected in the third - quarter and pressure in the fourth - quarter. Consider monthly spread trading [27]. Styrene - It continues to move sideways, with weakening macro - support and poor spot trading [28]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - Propylene supply pressure increases, polyethylene has weak fundamentals, and polypropylene's short - term increase is limited [29]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC is strong due to policies, but long - term growth is uncertain. Caustic soda is also strong, and attention should be paid to capacity reduction [30]. PX and PTA - Their prices are rising, with PTA having room for processing margin repair. Follow domestic policies [31]. Ethylene Glycol - It is rising, supported by coal market sentiment and policies. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [32]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - Their prices follow raw materials. Short - fiber may be bullish in the medium - term, and bottle - chip's profit repair is limited [33]. Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate before tariff and weather issues are clear [37]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Maintain a strategy of buying on dips, and pay attention to weather and policies [38]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed - related products are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [39]. Corn - The corn market has few contradictions, and Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly [41]. Live Pigs - Near - month contracts may face a risk of decline, while far - month contracts are affected by capacity reduction expectations [42]. Eggs - Near - month contracts may be under pressure, and far - month contracts may rise after capacity reduction [43]. Cotton - The Zhengzhou cotton market is in a high - level oscillation. Wait and see or conduct intraday trading [44]. Sugar - The sugar price is expected to oscillate, with pressure on US sugar and uncertainties in domestic production [45]. Apples - The futures price is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the price of new - season early - maturing apples [46]. Others Timber - The futures price is oscillating. Supply is limited, but demand is in the off - season, so wait and see [47]. Pulp - It may oscillate strongly following commodities. Consider buying on dips lightly [48]. Stock Index - The stock index has risen, and the market risk preference is stable. Increase allocation to the technology - growth sector [49]. Treasury Bonds - Bond yields are rising. Pay attention to the opportunity for curve steepening [50]. Shipping - The container shipping index (European line) may oscillate widely in the short term. Consider short - selling on rallies [21].

美国政府公布的协议概要文件中提到："从日本进口的商品适用15%的基本关税率"，但没有写明适用日 期。 特朗普政府公布了日美关税谈判协议概要，但并未写明15%对等关税等的适用日期。对于日本扩大美国 产大米进口，美方提到"将立即增加75%"，但日本农相小泉表示"不是一个固定的框架"。关于购买防卫 装备，日方称"协议中不包括防卫费相关内容"…… 美国特朗普政府7月23日公布了日美关税谈判的协议概要。关于适用日期和对美投资框架，美方与日本 的说明存在很多出入或不明确之处。如果留下含糊其辞的内容，将对企业经营产生负面影响。日本政府 计划最快在下周公布汇总日美共识的文件，与此同时，努力向日本国内进行通俗易懂地说明也是当务之 急。 "15%的对等关税估计于8月1日生效"，负责谈判的日本经济财政兼再生相赤泽亮正7月24日在东京羽田 机场对记者表示。日美双方针对将原计划从10%上调至25%的对等关税降至15%一事达成协议。关于从 总计27.5%降至15%的汽车关税，赤泽表示"希望尽快实施"。日本政府相关人士24日还提出看法称"将比 对等关税稍晚"。 日本称防卫装备不包括在内 关于日本扩大美国产大米进口，美方的文件提到"将立即增 ...

| | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/25 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/7/24 2025/7/24 | 美元/桶 美元/桶 | 66.03 69.18 | 65.25 68.51 | 1.20% 0.98% | | 上 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/7/23 | 美元/吨 | 567.38 | 566.38 | 0.18% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/7/23 | | 美元/吨 | 705.50 | 715.50 | -1.40% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/7/24 | 美元/吨 | 856.00 | 841.67 | 1.70% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 2025/7/24 | 元/吨 | 4850.00 | 4784.00 | ...