本周市场将受到多重因素的影响，尤其是美联储的会议纪要和通胀报告将成为关键的关注点。周初，市场将由特朗普最新关税威胁以及欧洲央行行长拉加德 的讲话引导，而接下来的数据发布将进一步影响市场情绪和投资决策。本文将详细分析本周的重要经济数据和事件，帮助投资者把握市场脉动。 欧美时段首先关注德国5月季调后失业率，4月份经季节调整的失业率连续第二个月保持在6.3%不变，符合预期但当局指出，春季劳工市场复苏似乎相对较 弱，所以需要更多的数据来确认信号，看就业市场依然被经济前景信心弱化所拖累。晚间关注美国5月里奇蒙德联储制造业指数，预计维持负值。原油市场 关注第39届欧佩克和非欧佩克产油国部长级会议举行，上周有报道称其讨论7月增产的选项，在当前经济前景不明朗的情况下，增产会再次施压油价。 周一：央行动态引导市场 美国和英国因假期休市，但市场情绪将主要受到特朗普再次发出关税威胁的影响，留意避险情绪预计集中。美国总统特朗普上周五威胁要再次升级贸易战， 建议从6月1日起对欧盟商品征收50%的关税，并警告苹果，他可能会对美国消费者购买的所有iPhone征收25%的关税。看晚间欧央行行长拉加德讲话关注是 否就特朗普最新关税警告做出回应 ...

Market Reaction - Following Trump's announcement, the US experienced a significant decline in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, with the dollar index dropping by 0.8% and the euro strengthening by 0.7%[2] - European stock indices, particularly France's CAC40 and Germany's DAX, fell by 1.9% and 1.5% respectively, while the S&P 500 index in the US decreased by 0.7%[2] - The 10-year Eurozone bond yield increased by 1.4 basis points, while the 10-year US Treasury yield fell by 2.3 basis points, indicating market volatility[2] Tariff Implications - Trump's proposed 50% tariff on the EU could lead to significant economic repercussions for both the US and EU, as they are each other's largest trading partners[4] - In 2024, the US accounted for 14% of EU imports and 21% of EU exports, while the EU represented 18% of US imports and 19% of US exports[4] - If implemented, the US could see a reduction of over 50% in imports from the EU, severely impacting industries such as pharmaceuticals, machinery, and automobiles[4] Economic Context - The US faces increasing pressure from rising Treasury yields, which could limit the effectiveness of its tariff policies and lead to greater asset sell-off[5] - The US Treasury yields for 10-year and 30-year bonds have recently surpassed 4.5% and 5.0% respectively, reflecting concerns over fiscal sustainability[5][6] - The EU has more room for fiscal expansion compared to the US, which may lead to a more favorable economic outlook for Europe in the face of potential tariffs[5] Political Dynamics - Trump's tariff threats may be more of a strategic maneuver in trade negotiations with the EU, especially given the slow progress in recent talks[3] - The political landscape in the US may limit Trump's ability to implement the proposed tariffs, as domestic pressures could shift focus away from international trade issues[7] - The likelihood of the 50% tariff being enacted is low, with expectations that the final tariff level will not exceed 20%[8]

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that Trump's tariff threats are perceived as empty and primarily serve as a negotiation tactic, indicating that the U.S. government has a strategic plan in place regarding trade policies [1] Group 1 - Analysts from Forexlive believe that the prediction regarding Trump's tariff threats was insightful, as they expect the proposed tariffs of up to 50% on goods imported from the EU to be reduced through negotiations [1] - Barclays views the threats to the EU as mainly a negotiation strategy, implying that the U.S. has not fully committed to imposing tariffs yet [1] - The article compares the situation to the story of "The Boy Who Cried Wolf," suggesting that while the U.S. government is not irrational, there are limits to how far they will go with these threats [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the bearish trend in crude oil prices, influenced by Trump's tariff threats, and explores how traders can identify bearish signals and set profit and stop-loss levels for short positions [1] Group 1 - Crude oil prices are under pressure due to tariff threats from Trump, leading to a potential expansion of the downward trend [1] - Traders are advised to look for confirmation of bearish signals in the market to make informed decisions [1] - The article suggests strategies for short selling, including setting profit-taking and stop-loss levels [1]

(图片由豆包AI生成，提示词风险暴发） 一个令全球市场恐慌的日期，正在逼近。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间5月23日周五，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上表示， 建议自6月1日起对欧盟征收50%的关税。 这一声明不仅打破了此前90天的"缓冲期"预期，也让原本艰难推进的美欧贸易谈判面临崩盘风险。 当天美股、欧股双双跳水，避险情绪重回上风，黄金大涨。 而 上一次类似情绪失控，是4月2日 ——当天，特朗普宣布所谓的"对等关税"，"血洗"全球股市，黄金迎来史诗级暴涨。 如今，随着特朗普再次出手，市场正在评估， 6月1日会不会是又一个4月2日。 欧美贸易是无与伦比的，必须以相互尊重为指导，而非威胁。我们随时准备捍卫我们的利益。 欧盟方面认为，欧盟和美国的关税之间仅相差约1个百分点，增值税大致相当于美国的销售税。 布鲁塞尔也不愿意给予美国其他国家无法进入的市场，因为这 将违反世界贸易组织的规则。 官员们还指出，虽然贸易政策由欧盟委员会负责，但美国面临的许多贸易壁垒都是国家层面的。 迄今为止， 大多数成员国都支持欧盟委员会"参与但耗时"的做法 ，认为特朗普最终会因其关税将对美国经济造成的损害而做出让步。他们表示，布鲁塞尔方 面有坚定 ...

一个令全球市场恐慌的日期，正在逼近。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间5月23日周五，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上表示，建议自6月1日起对欧盟 征收50%的关税。这一声明不仅打破了此前90天的"缓冲期"预期，也让原本艰难推进的美欧贸易谈判面 临崩盘风险。 当天美股、欧股双双跳水，避险情绪重回上风，黄金大涨。而上一次类似情绪失控，是4月2日——当 天，特朗普宣布所谓的"对等关税"，"血洗"全球股市，黄金迎来史诗级暴涨。如今，随着特朗普再次出 手，市场正在评估，6月1日会不会是又一个4月2日。 分析认为，谈判进展缓慢的主要原因，在于美欧对于这次贸易谈判存在根本性的认知差别：特朗普政府 将关税谈判视为向竞争对手施压、迫使其做出让步的手段，而欧盟则表现得像是在与盟友打交道。 欧盟一直在遵循全球贸易的既定规则与特朗普政府谈判，试图避免对汽车、制药产品和几乎所有其他商 品征收痛苦的关税。但问题在于，特朗普正在撕毁这本规则手册。 欧洲想要的是谈判，采取"参与但耗时"的策略 在此前的几轮谈判中，欧盟已经提出了"双赢"的解决方案，包括将工业产品关税降至零的计划，以及购 买更多美国天然气的承诺。 欧盟官员则对特朗普的要求感到不满，质疑为什 ...

策略师：关税威胁再起 市场这回比较淡定了 金十数据5月24日讯，面对特朗普政府新一轮关税威胁，债券市场的最初反应是抛售美债，10年期美债 收益率从早盘低点一度回升。但波幅并不大。显然，投资者普遍预期，对欧盟进口商品加征50%关税的 激进提案，最终会像此前对华关税那样，在谈判中被大幅削弱。全球资管巨头先锋领航投资策略师约翰 ·马德齐伊雷表示，"市场现在已经冷静下来了，因为这种情况以前也发生过，我们也知道后来发生了什 么。这就像是'狼来了'的故事，大家已经不太当真了。"他补充道："政府并不是在胡来，他们有自己的 计划，他们能走多远是有限度的。" ...

美国财长贝森特：特朗普认为欧盟的提案不如其他方案。50%的关税威胁是对欧盟行动速度的回应。 ...

瑞典财政部长：特朗普对欧盟的关税威胁是不合理的升级行为。 ...

Group 1 - Trump has issued a 90-day ultimatum to China for a trade agreement, threatening to impose tariffs if no deal is reached, with only 84 days remaining [1][3] - The urgency behind Trump's threats is driven by domestic political pressure and the need to maintain a strong image among supporters [3][5] - Other countries, including Japan and the EU, are not responding to Trump's threats as expected, instead opting for a delay in negotiations [5][7] Group 2 - Trump's strategy of setting deadlines to pressure countries into compliance has backfired, as nations are uniting and delaying discussions [9][11] - The recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's from Aaa to Aa1 has weakened Trump's negotiating position internationally [11][13] - The downgrade has led to increased borrowing costs for the U.S. government and higher interest rates for consumers, further complicating Trump's domestic challenges [11][13] Group 3 - The global economic landscape is shifting, with countries looking to leverage the situation to negotiate better terms, inspired by China's ability to secure concessions [7][9] - Trump's unilateral approach to trade negotiations is becoming less effective in a globalized economy, where cooperation is essential [13][15]