Core Viewpoint - The overall economic operation remains stable, with a slight recovery in the quarter-on-quarter growth rate, while the real estate sector continues to face challenges, with expanding declines in development investment and sales. However, the narrowing decline in housing price indices and improving supply-demand relationships indicate potential stabilization in the market [2][5][26]. Economic Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, growing by 5.2% year-on-year, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1% in Q3 [5]. - Domestic demand continues to improve, with final consumption expenditure contributing 53.5% to economic growth, while net exports contributed 29.0% [5]. - The manufacturing sector shows positive growth, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 9.7% and 9.6% respectively [5]. Real Estate Market Trends - New home sales in September saw a seasonal rebound, with sales area reaching 85.31 million square meters, up 49% month-on-month, although down 10.5% year-on-year [8]. - The average absorption rate remains high at around 40%, despite a decline in some key cities [8][10]. - Housing prices continue to show a narrowing decline, with eight cities experiencing year-on-year price increases, the highest number this year [13][14]. Investment and Construction - Real estate development investment in the first three quarters totaled 677.06 billion yuan, down 13.9% year-on-year, with September's investment declining by 21.3% [22]. - New construction area in September was 55.98 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 14.4%, but the decline is narrowing [16]. - The completion area in September was 34.35 million square meters, marking the first month of positive year-on-year growth since 2024 [19]. Policy and Market Outlook - The government is actively promoting high-quality urban development and housing construction, with multiple policies aimed at stimulating market demand and improving supply efficiency [9][10][27]. - The market is expected to see more positive signals in Q4 2025, with a focus on improving housing quality and addressing inventory issues [28].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is determined to stabilize the real estate market, emphasizing the need for a more proactive approach to promote healthy development in both the real estate and stock markets [1][3]. Policy Measures - The government report outlines a shift from "firefighting" to "recovery," with a focus on implementing moderately loose monetary policies and utilizing 4.4 trillion yuan in local government special bonds for direct interventions like land acquisition and stock housing purchases [3][5]. - The report indicates a removal of specific debt relief measures for real estate companies, instead prioritizing a balanced approach to development and safety [3]. Market Data - From January to April 2025, national real estate development investment reached 27,730 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%, while residential investment fell by 9.6%. However, the National Housing Prosperity Index slightly rebounded to 93.86 [4]. - New housing sales saw a narrowing decline of 0.2 percentage points, and the inventory of unsold commercial housing decreased by 5.22 million square meters, signaling a potential market recovery [4]. Local Initiatives - Various provinces, such as Shanxi and Wuhan, are implementing measures like tax reductions and increased stock housing purchases to stimulate demand and promote sales [7][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of controlling new land supply while revitalizing existing commercial properties, with a focus on reducing inventory levels [7]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The report highlights the need for policies that reduce restrictive measures and promote urban village renovations, which are expected to drive housing demand by 0.75 to 1 billion square meters [11]. - The market is showing signs of differentiation, with first-tier cities experiencing a recovery in new housing sales, while second-hand housing prices continue to decline [13]. Price Trends - In the first half of 2025, new housing prices in 100 cities increased by 1.16%, supported by improved project offerings, while second-hand housing prices fell by 3.60% [13]. - The land market is also experiencing disparities, with significant land sale revenues in cities like Hangzhou and Beijing, while other cities see lower transaction values [13].

Group 1: Government Policies and Initiatives - The Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Ni Hong, emphasizes the need to construct safe, comfortable, green, and smart houses, while also renovating old ones [1] - Nine departments, including the Ministry of Housing, have issued an action plan to develop and implement intelligent municipal infrastructure construction and renovation plans [2] - Beijing has introduced a new tax policy for housing rental enterprises, reducing the VAT rate from 5% to 1.5% starting January 1, 2026, and lowering the property tax rate from 12% to 4% [3] Group 2: Real Estate Transactions and Market Activity - In Chengdu, a new policy has been released that removes local deposit restrictions for housing provident fund loans, allowing eligible non-local contributors to apply for conversion loans [4] - Two low-density residential land parcels in Suzhou's Xiangcheng district were sold at a total price of 661 million yuan, with floor prices of 7,500 yuan and 7,000 yuan per square meter [5] - A residential land parcel in Hangzhou's Binjiang district was sold for 1.264 billion yuan, reflecting a nearly 20% premium over the starting price [6] Group 3: Land Supply and Development - Beijing has announced the eighth round of proposed residential land supply for 2025, covering 9 plots with a total area of approximately 44 hectares and a planned construction scale of about 1.03 million square meters [7] - Shanghai is set to auction 6 land parcels in its eighth batch of land sales, with a total starting price of 18.495 billion yuan [8] Group 4: Company Performance and Leadership Changes - China State Construction's project, Yunhe Jiuyuan, achieved sales of 448 units in September, leading in sales volume, area, and amount in Beijing [9] - Beijing Urban Construction's Xi Yuan project opened its humanistic demonstration area, showcasing high-end residential values [10] - Sunac China’s debt restructuring plan received approval from 98.5% of creditors, marking a significant step towards resolving its offshore debt issues [12] Group 5: Sales Performance of Real Estate Companies - China Resources Land reported a cumulative contract sales amount of approximately 154.4 billion yuan for the first nine months, a year-on-year decline of 10.4% [13] - China Jinmao's contract sales for the same period reached 80.685 billion yuan, with a total area of 3.6745 million square meters sold [14] - Longfor Group's total contract sales amounted to 50.75 billion yuan, with a sales area of 3.943 million square meters [15]

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has significantly improved housing conditions in China, with over 240,000 old urban communities renovated, benefiting more than 110 million people [2][4]. Housing Development Achievements - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," approximately 5 billion square meters of new residential properties were sold, and over 11 million units of various types of affordable housing were constructed, benefiting over 30 million people [4]. - The urban living environment has been enhanced through the renovation of over 240,000 old urban communities, installation of 129,000 elevators, and the addition of over 3.4 million parking spaces [4]. Urban Renewal and Infrastructure - Urban renewal has been a key focus, with 2,387 urban village renovation projects and 175,000 units of dangerous housing being renovated [6]. - A comprehensive urban health check has been implemented in over 297 cities, identifying and addressing urgent local issues [6][7]. Construction Industry Transformation - The construction industry has seen a record total output value of 32.7 trillion yuan, with a value-added increase of 9 trillion yuan [4]. - Major projects such as the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Link and the Beijing Winter Olympics venues have showcased China's construction capabilities on a global scale [4]. Housing Quality Improvement Initiatives - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has introduced new standards for residential projects, including increased ceiling heights and mandatory elevator installations for buildings over four stories [9]. - A national residential design competition has been launched to promote innovative housing solutions, with nearly 2,000 entries submitted [9]. Sustainable Urban Development - A sustainable urban renewal model is being established, focusing on demand-driven projects and integrating urban health checks with renewal efforts [7]. - The government aims to enhance the quality of housing through improved standards, materials, construction practices, and maintenance [8][10].

一周行情回顾 本周，申万房地产指数下跌0.82%，沪深300 指数下跌0.51%，相对收益为-0.3%，板块表现弱于大盘。 行业基本面 本周(10.3-10.9)，中泰地产组跟踪的38 个重点城市一手房合计成交7696 套，同比增速-40.6%，环比增 速-72.6%；合计成交面积73.5 万平方米，同比增速-40.2%，环比增速-75.8%。 本周（10.3-10.9）房地产企业合计发行信用债4 亿元，环比增速-80.66%。本月至今房地产企业合计发行 信用债4 亿元，环比增速-96.1%。 投资建议： 本周，多地发布新政，推动"好房子"建设。由于国庆假期因素叠加去年同期政策刺激带来的高基数效 应，周度一二手房销售同环比均大幅下降。去化周期大幅上升。稳健的房企仍然是投资重点，建议关注 财务稳健、业绩表现良好的龙头房企，如越秀地产、华发股份、保利发展、招商蛇口、绿城中国等，在 当前政策环境下能够有效应对市场波动；同时随着市场需求的回升，物业管理公司也有望迎来业绩和估 值的修复，建议关注华润万象生活、中海物业、招商积余、保利物业、万物云和绿城服务等。 风险提示：销售不及预期，研究报告中使用的公开资料可能存在信息 ...

"好房子"近期成为高频热词。 今年，"好房子"首次被写入政府工作报告。 2025年政府工作报告指出，要适应人民群众高品质居住需要，完善标准规范，推动建设安全、舒适、绿 色、智慧的"好房子"。 也是在两会期间，住建部部长倪虹指出，将推动城市和企业加快建设"好房子"，大力推广"好房子"。 什么是"好房子"？ 更高的层高，更高的得房率，更长的房屋使用寿命，更智能的配套，更人性化的设计，"好房子"是从产 品层面的住宅革命。 同时，这也是在制度层面掀起的房地产行业革命。 "好房子"，不应该是理所当然的吗？行业竞争必然要求企业拿出高质量的产品。 根据倪虹的阐释和政府工作报告的表述，"好房子"需满足四大特征： 安全——通过提升建筑结构安全性和耐久性，解决隔音、渗漏等传统痛点，例如要求住宅结构设计年限 不低于70年，部分省市试点提升至100年。 舒适——重点优化居住体验，住建部在组织编制《好房子建设指南》和修订《住宅项目规范》中，明确 要将住宅的层高标准提高到不低于3米。还有改善通风、采光及心理压抑感。同时推动小区公共空间 （口袋公园、适老化设施等）以及套内得房率优化，减少公摊面积争议。 绿色——强调低碳环保，包括推广光伏屋 ...

New Consumption - In September 2025, the GMV of the beauty category on Douyin increased by 19.7% year-on-year, while it decreased by 10.4% month-on-month [2][6] - The total GMV of the top 20 beauty brands on Douyin reached over 3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 38.59%. Han Shu maintained the top position with a GMV exceeding 500 million yuan, and 40% of brands saw their GMV double [7][8] - Domestic brands showed strong performance in self-operated channels, with 60% of the top 20 beauty brands having a higher GMV contribution from self-operated sales than from influencer promotions [7][8] - The price distribution in the skincare category is relatively balanced, while the makeup and perfume categories heavily rely on affordable products. The price segment under 150 yuan accounted for 49.54% of the market [8] Real Estate - The real estate sector saw a decline of 0.8% this week, with new home transactions in 42 key cities totaling 980,000 square meters, a 51% decrease week-on-week [10][12] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is focusing on urban renewal and governance, with new regulations introduced in cities like Shenzhen and Chengdu to promote the construction of "good houses" [13][15] - The government is also increasing housing provident fund loan limits in cities like Nanjing and Shaoxing to support homebuyers [13][14] North Exchange - The research on solid-state lithium batteries has made significant progress, with new technologies enhancing the stability of metal lithium anodes [16][17] - The energy storage sector is rapidly developing, with a total of 1,663 energy storage stations in operation as of June 2025, totaling 75.79 GW/175.12 GWh [16][17] - The North Exchange has identified 24 companies in the energy storage industry, spanning upstream material production to downstream system operation [17][18] Pharmaceuticals - The pharmaceutical index rose by 0.36% this week, with expectations for innovative drugs to continue rapid growth and export businesses to perform well [28][29] - The market anticipates catalysts such as ESMO and BD meetings in October, which may stabilize and rebound the innovative drug sector [29][30] - Recommended stocks include innovative drug companies like Xinlitai, Hotgen Biotech, and China Biologic Products, as well as export-oriented firms like WuXi AppTec and Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical [29][34] Company Analysis - Mixue Group plans to invest 286 million yuan to acquire 51% of Fulu Family, expanding its brand matrix into the fresh beer market [36][37] - Fulu Family offers fresh beer products priced between 6 to 10 yuan per 500 ml, focusing on high-quality and affordable offerings [37][38] - The acquisition is expected to leverage Mixue's existing supply chain advantages to enhance its brand presence in the fresh beer sector [38]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3][4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market and stock market as a means to boost social expectations and facilitate domestic demand circulation. The focus is on high-quality housing and urban renewal, with a potential wave of development for high-quality residential properties [4][45] - The report suggests that the central government's consistent messaging since September 2024 has been to stabilize the real estate market, especially in light of external economic pressures [4][45] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.4%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.3%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 3.9%. The real estate sector (Shenwan) decreased by 0.8% during the week [4][7] - In terms of individual stocks, Hefei Urban Construction saw a significant increase of 18.1%, while Shenzhen Real Estate A experienced a decline of 12.0% [4][7] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - In the week of October 4-10, 2025, 42 key cities recorded a total new housing transaction volume of 980,000 square meters, a decrease of 51.0% from the previous week and a year-on-year decline of 53.5% [11][17] - For the month up to October 10, 2025, new housing transactions in these cities totaled 1.22 million square meters, down 44.8% month-on-month and 39.5% year-on-year [17] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - During the same week, 21 key cities recorded a total of 860,000 square meters in second-hand housing transactions, a decrease of 26.6% from the previous week and a year-on-year decline of 48.4% [29][35] - For the month up to October 10, 2025, second-hand housing transactions totaled 930,000 square meters, down 64.5% month-on-month and 29.3% year-on-year [35] Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is focusing on urban renewal and governance, with plans to upgrade old houses into "good houses" [45] - New regulations in Shenzhen limit the height of residential buildings to manage safety risks, while Chengdu has increased the area limit for balconies and other auxiliary spaces [45][46] Company Announcements - In September 2025, China Overseas Development reported a sales figure of 20.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, while Poly Developments reported 20.53 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.8% [48] - New City Holdings issued a total of 160 million USD in unsecured fixed-rate bonds with a 2-year term and an interest rate of 11.88% [48]

9月27日，中青建安集团正式发布《中青建安集团"好房子"建设标准体系》，标志着集团公司在推动住宅建设高质量发展方面迈出坚实一步，也为行业树 立了新标杆。 2025年被行业誉为"好房子建设的春天"。3月5日，李强总理在《政府工作报告》中明确提出，要"适应人民群众高品质居住需要，完善标准规范，推动建 设'安全、舒适、绿色、智慧'的好房子"，这是"好房子"首次写入《政府工作报告》，为行业发展指明了方向。 中青建安集团积极响应国家号召，深度参与各级"好房子"标准体系建设。 4月10日，青岛市启动"好房子"建设标准体系编制工作，集团公司作为参编单位之一，积极贡献实践经验与技术积累。 5月25日，在中国工程建设标准化协会"好房子建设标准体系"课题启动暨第一次工作会议上，集团公司再次作为参编单位参与研讨，系统梳理并积累了"好 房子"在设计、建造等方面的标准编制经验。 第一部分为"好房子"建设综合标准体系，涵盖好房子系列标准（A）、强制性工程建设规范（B）、勘察设计标准（C）、施工技术标准（D）、试验检验 标准（E）、质量验收标准（F）及建筑评价标准（G）； 第二部分为专项标准体系，包括常见质量易发问题防控标准（Z1）、装配 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD) has outlined the achievements and future directions for high-quality urban development and "good housing" construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, emphasizing the importance of urban quality and housing standards [1][2][3]. Urban High-Quality Development - MOHURD is leading the "1+N" document system to guide local governments in incorporating measures into the 15th Five-Year Plan, focusing on high-quality urban renewal, efficient urban governance, and high-level planning in the construction sector [3]. - Since 2025, approximately 640.2 billion yuan in special bonds related to real estate have been issued, with over half allocated to land reserve bonds, which are crucial for optimizing land supply and promoting urban high-quality development [3]. "Good Housing" Construction - The new "Residential Project Standards" implemented on May 1, 2025, include 14 upgraded standards, such as increasing floor height from 2.8 meters to 3 meters and requiring elevators in buildings over four stories [4]. - The focus areas for "good housing" construction include good standards, design, materials, construction, and maintenance, which are expected to enhance housing quality and stabilize property prices [4]. Local Policy Initiatives - Recent policies from five provinces and cities aim to stabilize the housing market, with Chengdu increasing the maximum projection area for auxiliary spaces from 20% to 30%, enhancing the appeal of high-quality housing [5][6]. - Nanjing and Shaoxing have raised the maximum housing provident fund loan limits to improve purchasing power for individuals and families, supporting urban high-quality development and accommodating new residents [6]. Market Policy Trends - The frequency of policy announcements has decreased due to the recent holidays, with a notable focus on optimizing housing provident fund policies as a primary market stabilization measure [9][11]. - The trend indicates that as the 14th Five-Year Plan progresses, there will likely be an increase in the issuance of policies related to urban quality development and housing standards [12][14].