最近全国楼市的动静不小，特别是住建部刚刚在北京召开的会议上，明确提出从2026年起全面推进现房销售制度，这个被称为"所见即所得"的新政策，正在 改变中国房地产的基本游戏规则。那种开发商靠一张图纸、几句承诺、一本PPT就能收百亿资金的日子，已经走到尽头。 数据显示，今年前11个月全国房地产开发投资同比下降15.9%，住宅投资下降15%。在这个背后，是一场深层次的行业重构，是一次彻底的制度革命。这次 调整到底是楼市自然下滑的结果，还是国家有意为之的主动改革？住建部为何此时出手，又为何选择"现房销售"作为突破口？ 过去二十年，中国楼市之所以能一路狂奔，靠的就是"预售制"这张王牌。开发商拿地后，图纸还没画完，营销中心先开张，样板间一布置，广告一铺天盖 地，购房者就蜂拥而至。 钱到手后，这些企业再拿这笔钱继续拍地、继续盖楼，形成了一个高杠杆、高周转的资金循环。这种玩法看似效率惊人，实则风险巨大，一旦房价不涨或市 场转冷，资金链就随时可能断裂。 到了今天，"十个锅九个盖"的游戏玩不下去了。全国多地烂尾楼频发，购房者维权无门，社会舆论压力不断攀升。住建部终于选择"动刀"，从销售制度入 手，着手解决中国房地产积累多年的系统性 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The US economy grew by 4.3% in Q3 2025, with the US API crude oil inventory rising. Market risk appetite has rebounded, and various asset classes show different trends [1][6]. - A-shares are in a narrow - range consolidation with increasing trading volume, potentially accumulating momentum for a cross - year market [23]. - The bond market is approaching a critical point, with a higher probability of short - term adjustment than direct upward movement [25]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Q3 GDP exceeded expectations, and gold prices first declined and then rose. Gold and silver are still in an upward trend, but attention should be paid to the risks and increased volatility caused by short - term profit - taking of long positions [11]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US economy grew by 4.3% in Q3 2025. The market risk appetite has rebounded, and the US dollar will fluctuate in the short term [12][14]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US Q3 GDP growth was the fastest in two years. The market risk appetite remains high, and the US stock market is expected to be in a volatile and slightly upward trend [19][20]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - shares had a narrow - range consolidation with increasing trading volume on December 23. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in various stock indices [21][23][24]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 59.3 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 76 billion yuan on the day. The long - term varieties are bottom - building. It is recommended that allocation investors buy when interest rates rise, and trading investors buy at low prices and exit quickly [25][26]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal prices in the Changzhi market showed mixed trends. Currently, coking coal supply and demand are both weak. It is necessary to pay attention to downstream restocking [27][28]. 2.2 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Turkey imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese tin - plated coils. The global crude steel output in November decreased by 4.6% year - on - year. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to adopt a volatile trading strategy [29][31][33]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - A major shareholder of Juxing Agriculture pledged 18.5 million shares. In the short and medium term, the supply pressure remains unchanged. It is recommended to short at high prices for the 03 contract and consider long positions for far - month contracts at low prices [34]. 2.4 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The trading limit of polysilicon futures contracts was adjusted. The polysilicon inventory is still accumulating, and demand is weak. It is expected that the spot price may be difficult to fall, but it depends on whether the price increase can be passed on to downstream industries. It is recommended that investors hold positions cautiously [35][36][38]. 2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The designated delivery warehouse and quality inspection institution of industrial silicon futures were adjusted. The supply and demand of industrial silicon depend on the production reduction rhythm of enterprises. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [38][41][42]. 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead had a large - scale backwardation. The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and it is recommended to trade with a volatile strategy [43]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc had a backwardation. The short - term fundamentals of zinc are not highly contradictory, and it is recommended to buy on dips and hold positive spreads and conduct reverse arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [44][45]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Exar applied for incentives for capacity expansion. The short - term sentiment is supported, but there is a callback risk after the resumption of production by large enterprises. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium and long term [47][48]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - China's refined nickel imports in November increased significantly. Indonesia plans to reduce nickel ore production in 2026. It is recommended to go long on dips if cobalt pricing is implemented, and short at high prices if the production quota expectations are not met [49][50][52]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin had a contango. The supply of tin ore is uncertain, and demand is weak. Inventory accumulation is a short - term pressure on prices. It is necessary to be vigilant against price drops [53][54][57]. 2.11 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US API crude oil inventory increased. Oil prices rebounded due to increased market risk appetite and geopolitical risks. Short - term oil prices will be disturbed by geopolitical conflicts [58][59]. 2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price rose on December 23. The short - term market risk is high [60][61]. 2.13 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - ZIM rejected the management's acquisition offer. The freight rate increase was not realized, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [62][63].

（来源：北京商报） 12月22日至23日，全国住房城乡建设工作会议在北京召开。会议全面梳理2025年工作，系统总结"十四 五"时期行业发展取得的阶段性成就，并就"十五五"时期总体发展规划及2026年重点工作任务作出部署 安排。 会议明确，2025年保交房任务全面完成。"十四五"期间，全国累计改造城镇老旧小区24万多个，惠及 4100多万户、1.1亿多人。2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，将推进现代化人民城市建设放在首位，城市 更新重要性提升。对于房地产的提法则由去年的"持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳"调整为"着力稳定 房地产市场"，且位置由第一位调整为第二位。 2025年保交房任务全面完成 在推进保交付、实现防风险的基础上，2025年的另一项工作就是启动供给侧改革。会议指出，新的《住 宅项目规范》正式实施。举办全国"好房子"设计大赛。以"揭榜挂帅"等方式推动50多类新型建材研发应 用。 《住宅项目规范》指导行业领军企业发挥示范作用，探索构建"6633"（六不、六防、三省、三 要）、"365"（三用、六优、五支撑）等"好房子"建造体系。42个城市实施房屋全生命周期安全管理制 度试点。一体化推进好房子、好小区、好 ...

12月23日，杭州市富阳区银湖板块一宗小体量地块迎来出让。浙江龙大地产有限公司以总价2.92亿元斩 获该地块，溢价率为1.74%，楼面价6201.07元/平方米。至此，2025年杭州宅地土拍正式收官。今年杭 州共出让宅地92宗，土地出让金1423亿元，两项数据均好于去年。 此前，已有不少城市完成了今年住宅用地的出让。其中，上海的宅地总成交金额为1427.2亿元，是另一 个收金超过1400亿元的城市。 12月23日，北京海淀区一宗地块以84.56亿元拍出，虽然尚未收官，但北京已借此提前迈入这一门槛。 京沪杭也成为今年仅有的三个土地收金超过1400亿元的城市。 2025年，在"控制增量"政策导向及房企的审慎投资策略下，土地市场供应和成交规模均有所下降。但区 域性亮点的存在，说明市场分化局面仍然明显。 一方面，北上深杭等城市土拍热度较高，随着优质地块的推出和规则的进一步完善，溢价成交的数量和 比重高于其他城市。另一方面，三四线城市的土拍相对平淡，底价成交仍是主流。 总体来看，市场正在向理性回归。分析人士指出，尽管高价地并不少见，但企业仍然恪守纪律，甚少见 到不计代价抢地的情况。 一家央企开发商负责人向21世纪经济报 ...

12月23日，杭州市富阳区银湖板块一宗小体量地块迎来出让。浙江龙大地产有限公司以总价2.92亿元斩获该地块，溢价率为1.74%，楼面价 6201.07元/平方米。至此，2025年杭州宅地土拍正式收官。今年杭州共出让宅地92宗，土地出让金1423亿元，两项数据均好于去年。 总体来看，市场正在向理性回归。分析人士指出，尽管高价地并不少见，但企业仍然恪守纪律，甚少见到不计代价抢地的情况。 此前，已有不少城市完成了今年住宅用地的出让。其中，上海的宅地总成交金额为1427.2亿元，是另一个收金超过1400亿元的城市。 12月23日，北京海淀区一宗地块以84.56亿元拍出，虽然尚未收官，但北京已借此提前迈入这一门槛。京沪杭也成为今年仅有的三个土地收金 超过1400亿元的城市。 2025年，在"控制增量"政策导向及房企的审慎投资策略下，土地市场供应和成交规模均有所下降。但区域性亮点的存在，说明市场分化局面仍 然明显。 一方面，北上深杭等城市土拍热度较高，随着优质地块的推出和规则的进一步完善，溢价成交的数量和比重高于其他城市。另一方面，三四线 城市的土拍相对平淡，底价成交仍是主流。 一家央企开发商负责人向21世纪经济报道表示 ...

12月22日至23日，全国住房城乡建设工作会议在北京召开。会议全面梳理2025年工作，系统总结"十四五"时期行业发展取得的阶段性成就，并就"十五五"时 期总体发展规划及2026年重点工作任务作出部署安排。 会议明确，2025年保交房任务全面完成。"十四五"期间，全国累计改造城镇老旧小区24万多个，惠及4100多万户、1.1亿多人。2026年作为"十五五"开局之 年，将推进现代化人民城市建设放在首位，城市更新重要性提升。对于房地产的提法则由去年的"持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳"调整为"着力稳定房地 产市场"，且位置由第一位调整为第二位。 在推进保交付、实现防风险的基础上，2025年的另一项工作就是启动供给侧改革。会议指出，新的《住宅项目规范》正式实施。举办全国"好房子"设计大 赛。以"揭榜挂帅"等方式推动50多类新型建材研发应用。 《住宅项目规范》指导行业领军企业发挥示范作用，探索构建"6633"（六不、六防、三省、三要）、"365"（三用、六优、五支撑）等"好房子"建造体系。 42个城市实施房屋全生命周期安全管理制度试点。一体化推进好房子、好小区、好社区、好城区建设，开展物业服务领域突出问题集中整治，推动问 ...

一场关乎购房模式的转变正在全国多地推进。 今年以来，包括湖南平江县、甘肃张掖、河南信阳等多个城市先后出台政策，要求新出让土地的商品房项目实行现房销售。另据克而瑞监测，2019年以来， 商品住宅现房销售面积占比已从10%提升至今年年初的33%，全国已有超过30个省（市）开展了现房销售试点或出台配套政策。 国家统计局数据显示，2024年，商品房现房销售面积约占商品房销售面积的30.84%；今年前9月，这一占比提升至35.4%。 而在"十五五"规划建议明确提出推动房地产高质量发展的背景下，日前住房和城乡建设部提出了六大重点任务，其中就包括建立住房保障轮候库制度、推进 商品房现房销售制度。 这也意味着，以"推进现房销售"为代表的一系列措施，将成为下一阶段房地产行业发展的核心任务。"随着政策的不断细化和市场的逐步适应，现房销售模 式有望成为中国商品住宅销售新常态，这是实践和丰富房地产行业发展新模式的应有之义。"克而瑞分析指出。 图片来源：每经记者 张建 摄 "十五五"时期现房销售有望逐渐推进 12月10日，深圳福田区梅林街道B405-0308地块完成竞拍，成交楼面价42695元/平方米，溢价率65%。根据地块出让公告， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference highlighted that there is still significant room for high-quality development in China's real estate sector, focusing on rigid and improvement demands, with an emphasis on urban renewal, particularly in dilapidated housing and urban village transformations [2][3]. Group 1: Market Stability and Development - The real estate market has shown stability in new and second-hand housing transactions, with a narrowing decline in housing prices and varied regional market trends [3]. - As of November, the total real estate development investment reached 78,591 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.9%, compared to a 9.8% decline at the beginning of the year [3]. - The inventory of unsold commercial housing decreased by 3.01 million square meters from October, with residential unsold area down by 2.84 million square meters [3]. Group 2: Demand Analysis - The rigid housing demand is expected to continue, driven by urbanization, with the urbanization rate projected to reach 67% for the resident population by 2024, while the registered population's urbanization rate is below 50% [3]. - Improvement demand is rising, with an increase in the willingness of residents to sell old homes for new ones, as the proportion of second-hand home transactions rose from 28% in 2021 to 45% this year [4]. Group 3: Strategies for High-Quality Development - The Central Financial Office proposed three strategies to promote high-quality development in real estate: stabilizing the market from both supply and demand sides, supporting the transformation of real estate companies, and accelerating the establishment of a new development model [6]. - On the supply side, there is a focus on controlling new developments and revitalizing existing stock, while the demand side will see targeted measures to release rigid and improvement demands [6]. - Real estate companies are encouraged to shift from primarily new home sales to holding properties and providing diverse living services, with a focus on light asset management and service-oriented business models [6]. Group 4: Sales and Regulatory Reforms - The promotion of a current housing sales system aims to prevent delivery risks, ensuring that buyers receive what they see [7]. - The article emphasizes the need for regulatory reforms in real estate development, financing, and sales, including the establishment of a main bank system for project financing [7]. - The rental market is also highlighted, with a call for the development of a market-oriented and professional rental sector to protect the legal rights of both landlords and tenants [8].

12月10日，深圳福田区梅林街道B405-0308宗地完成竞拍，成交楼面价42695元/㎡，溢价率65%。根据 深圳市国有建设用地使用权出让公告，该宗地内的商品住房需全部实行现房销售，是近年来深圳第二宗 要求全部现房销售的宅地。 广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，现房销售将倒逼开发 商将精力用在打造好产品上，降低开发周转速度，重视每一个项目的交付品质和口碑，从而提升单个项 目的产品竞争力，推动行业转型升级。同时，现房销售的推行也将降低新房开发节奏，从而降低库存和 去化压力。 推进现房销售制度是改革完善房地产开发、融资、销售制度过程中的重点工作之一。近年来，多地从政 策端及土地出让端发力，推动现房销售制度落地。 展望未来，现房销售或将得到进一步推进。中指研究院有关负责人认为，"十五五"时期，现房销售或将 逐渐推进，预计更多库存量大的城市或区域将率先推进现房销售，对于部分库存量较小的地区来说，现 房销售后新增供应将减少，或影响市场供需平衡，这些地方更需要地方政府进行精准把控推进节奏和力 度，同时加快完善适用于现房销售模式的房地产融资制度等，推动期房销售逐渐向现房销售转型。 据 ...

转自：新华财经 优化金融机构体系，推动各类金融机构专注主业、完善治理、错位发展。"十五五"规划建议为中小银行 发展定下基调：需在改革化险的同时，重塑行业核心竞争力。2025年，中小银行迎来改革浪潮。今年以 来，多家村镇银行被吸收合并为国有银行、股份制银行或城商行的分支机构。据企业预警通统计，仅今 年下半年以来，就有超200家中小银行因批复合并或批复解散等缘由而注销。 近期，从摩尔线程到沐曦股份，网下配售名单中高频出现幻方、九坤、衍复等头部量化机构的身影，两 家国产GPU龙头企业IPO引发了量化私募的抢筹热潮。不限于股票打新，一场围绕"双创"领域的布局已 悄然展开，多家量化私募正加紧推出科创、双创及AI等细分主题产品，试图在波动更大、交易更活跃 的市场中捕捉超额收益。值得注意的是，在不少头部量化私募积极布局科创产品线的同时，也有一些机 构在同步推进红利产品的布局。近期卓识私募密集布局了一系列"中证红利指数增强"产品，茂源量化、 世纪前沿也都布局了红利主题的相关产品。 证券时报 12月10日至11日召开的中央经济工作会议总结2025年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署2026年经济工 作。继12月8日中央政治局会议 ...