2025 年 8 月 26 日 沥青：裂解续弱 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 商 品 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2509 | 元/吨 | 3,545 | 0.71% | 3,549 | 0.11% | | | BU2510 | 元/吨 | 3,512 | 0.83% | 3,528 | 0.46% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2509 | 手 | 5,925 | (240) | 15,517 | (2,366) | | | BU2510 | 手 | 169,612 | 30,160 | 191,301 | (17,115) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 72650 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Spiral Steel and Hot Rolled Coil Morning Report (2025-8-25) [1] - Analyst: Hu Yuxiu from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - **For Threaded Steel (Rebar)**: The fundamentals show weak demand, low - level inventory with a slight decrease, and weak purchasing willingness among traders. The downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle. With a positive basis, inventory in 35 major cities is increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year. The price is below the 20 - day line which is downward, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions. Expecting high - level oscillations considering the weak real - estate market, cooling demand, and domestic capacity - reduction plans [2]. - **For Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may play a role. With a positive basis, inventory in 33 major cities is increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year. The price is below the 20 - day line which is downward, and the main position is net short with a decrease in short positions. Also expecting high - level oscillations due to weakened market supply and demand, blocked exports, and domestic capacity - reduction plans [6]. Group 4: Factors Analysis For Threaded Steel (Rebar) - **Positive Factors**: Low production and inventory levels, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations [3] - **Negative Factors**: Continued downward cycle in the downstream real - estate industry and weak terminal demand lower than the same period [3] For Hot - Rolled Coil - **Positive Factors**: Fair demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations [7] - **Negative Factors**: Downstream demand entering the seasonal off - season with a pessimistic outlook [8] Group 5: Data Indicators Price - related - Threaded steel spot price: 3300 [2] - Hot - rolled coil spot price: 3420 [6] - Other price data includes Southeast Asian prices for threaded steel and hot - rolled coil, Tangshan billet price, and domestic scrap steel comprehensive price [15][18][23] Production - related - Data on blast furnace operating rate, threaded steel short - process electric furnace operating rate, threaded steel weekly output, and hot - rolled coil weekly output are presented [29][32][35] Profit - related - Data on threaded steel and hot - rolled coil disk profit, threaded steel blast furnace estimated profit, construction steel electric furnace estimated profit, and hot - rolled coil blast furnace estimated profit are provided [41][44][46] Inventory - related - Data on threaded steel and hot - rolled coil social and steel mill inventories are included [52][55][58] Consumption - related - Data on threaded steel and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption, apparent consumption year - on - year, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are presented [64][69][73] Market - related - Data on building materials trading volume, real - estate development investment and sales area (cumulative year - on - year), housing new construction, construction, and completion area (cumulative year - on - year), manufacturing PMI, steel monthly export data, and cement price are provided [74][77][81]

证券代码：839979 PVC期货周报 2025年08月18日-08月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 回顾与展望 本周01合约为下跌态势,周一开盘价为5103元/吨,周五收盘价为5019元/吨，周跌幅为1.64% 供给端来看,据隆众统计，2025年7月PVC产量为200.461万吨,环比增加0.60%;本周样本企业 产能利用率为77.61%,环比减少0.03个百分点;电石法企业产量32.8255万吨,环比减少3.94%,乙 烯法企业产量13.656万吨,环比减少2.04%;本周供给压力有所减少;下周预计检修有所减少，预计 排产增加幅度可观。 需求端来看,下游整体开工率为42.7%,环比减少0.04个百分点,低于历史平均水平;下游型材 开工率为37. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - The current supply pressure of asphalt remains high, with refineries reducing production recently to ease the pressure. The overall demand recovery is weak, and the current demand is lower than the historical average. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. It is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2510 contract oscillating in the range of 3461 - 3505 [7][8]. - The bullish factors include the relatively high level of crude oil cost providing some support. The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt is 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 32.838%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40 percentage points. The weekly shipments of sample enterprises are 237,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.50%. The sample enterprise output is 548,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.80%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices is 648,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.15%. Refineries have reduced production this week, and the supply pressure may decrease next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 30.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of building asphalt is 18.2%, flat month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of modified asphalt is 16.9855%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 28.33%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.17 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 30.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.90 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 591.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 788.4443 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.78%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the market in the short - term [8]. - **Basis**: On August 22, the spot price in Shandong was 3500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 17 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 1,292,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.79%. The in - plant inventory is 716,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%. The port diluted asphalt inventory is 150,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.05%. The social inventory is continuously decreasing, the in - plant inventory is continuously increasing, and the port inventory is continuously decreasing, showing a bullish situation [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 10 - contract closes below the MA20, showing a bearish situation [8]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish situation [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025 [17][18]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [20][21]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [23][24]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the crack spreads of asphalt and SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 [26][27][28]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report presents the price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [30][32]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - The report shows the price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [33][34]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The report presents the asphalt profit trend from 2019 to 2025 [35][36]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the profit spread trend between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [38][40]. - **Supply Side** - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the weekly shipment volume of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [42][43]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report presents the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [44][45]. - **Production Volume**: The report shows the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [47][48]. - **Marine Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report presents the price trend of Marine oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [51][53]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report shows the local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [54][55]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report presents the weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [57][58]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss**: The report shows the estimated maintenance loss trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [59][60]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: The report presents the exchange warehouse receipt trends (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [62][64][65]. - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: The report shows the social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) trends of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [66][67]. - **In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The report presents the in - plant inventory inventory ratio trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [69][70]. - **Import and Export Situation** - The report shows the export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [72][73]. - The report presents the import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [75][76][77]. - **Demand Side** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The report shows the petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [78][79]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report presents the apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [81][82]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment**: The report shows the trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2020 to 2025 [84][86]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report presents the sales volume trend of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours trend of excavators, the domestic excavator sales volume trend, and the roller sales volume trend from 2019 to 2025 [88][89][91][92]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Construction Rate**: The report shows the heavy - traffic asphalt construction rate from 2019 to 2025 [93][94]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate by Use**: The report presents the construction rates of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [96][97]. - **Downstream Construction Situation** - The report shows the construction rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, and other downstream products from 2019 to 2025 [99][100][102]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to August 2025, including downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, in - plant inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume [104][105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the supply side, in July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 77.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 328,255 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.94%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 136,560 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04%. Supply pressure decreased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with a significant increase in scheduled production [8]. - From the demand side, the overall downstream start - up rate was 42.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile start - up rate was 37.65%, a month - on - month increase of 0.74 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe start - up rate was 33.61%, a month - on - month increase of 0.649 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film start - up rate was 70.77%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.09 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin start - up rate was 77.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.43 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to fall, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [9]. - In terms of cost, the profit of calcium carbide method was - 222.7577 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 3.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 591.501 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 9.60%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,675.25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 0.50%, higher than the historical average, and scheduled production may increase [9]. - The main positions are net short, with a decrease in short positions, showing a bearish trend. The calcium carbide method cost is strengthening, the ethylene method cost is weakening, and the overall cost is strengthening. The overall inventory is at a neutral level. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,975 - 5,063. The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and domestic demand recovery is sluggish [10][14]. - Bullish factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Bearish factors include a rebound in overall supply pressure, high and slowly consumed inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PVC Market Overview - Yesterday's market data shows various indicators such as prices, spreads, inventories, and start - up rates. For example, the price of 01 contract increased by 0.30% to 5,019 yuan/ton, the social inventory increased by 3.08% to 508,000 tons, and the profile start - up rate increased by 2.00% to 37.65% [16]. 3.2 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the basis trend chart of PVC futures, showing the relationship between the basis, PVC spot price in East China, and the closing price of the main contract over time [18]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - It shows the trading volume, price trends, and changes in the positions of the top 5/20 seats of the main PVC futures contract in 2025, including opening prices, highest prices, lowest prices, closing prices, and moving averages [21]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - The report shows the spread trends of different contract months (such as 1 - 9, 5 - 9) in 2024 and 2025, helping to analyze the price differences between different contract periods [24]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Semi - Coke - It includes the price, cost - profit, start - up rate, inventory, and daily output trends of semi - coke in Shenmu from 2022 to 2025 [27]. 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Calcium Carbide - It shows the price, cost - profit, start - up rate, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide in Shaanxi from 2019 to 2025 [30]. 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt - It presents the price, production trends of liquid chlorine, and the price and monthly production trends of raw salt from 2019 to 2025 [32]. 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Caustic Soda - It includes the price, cost - profit, start - up rate, production, maintenance volume, and inventory trends of 32% caustic soda in Shandong from 2019 to 2025, as well as the double - ton price difference and caustic soda apparent consumption trends [35][38]. 3.9 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend - It shows the capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide and ethylene methods, the profit trends of calcium carbide and ethylene methods, daily and weekly production, weekly maintenance volume, and capacity utilization rate trends of PVC from 2018 to 2025 [40][43]. 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - It includes the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average start - up rate, and start - up rates of different downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin) from 2019 to 2025. It also shows the cost, profit, production, and apparent consumption of paste resin, as well as real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, and macro - economic indicators such as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment year - on - year from 2018 to 2025 [45][49][54][57]. 3.11 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - It presents the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 to 2025 [58]. 3.12 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - It shows the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of ethylene method (Tianjin - Taiwan), and import spread of vinyl chloride (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) from 2018 to 2025 [60]. 3.13 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It provides the monthly supply - demand balance data of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The 10 - contract of asphalt showed an upward trend this week, and it is expected to have a bullish and volatile adjustment next week. The demand recovery will be limited, supply will decrease, and cost support will strengthen [5][6][105]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Price Trend**: The 10 - contract opened at 3,461 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 3,483 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 0.64% [5]. - **Supply Side**: In June 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 32.838%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 237,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.50%. The sample enterprise output was 548,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.80%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 648,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.15%. Refineries reduced production this week, and supply pressure may decrease next week [5]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 30.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of modified asphalt was 16.9855%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 28.33%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.17 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 30.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.90 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [5]. - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 591.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 788.4443 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.78%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil strengthened, and it is expected to provide short - term support [5]. - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory was 1.292 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.79%. The factory inventory was 716,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%. The port diluted asphalt inventory was 150,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.05%. The social inventory continued to be destocked, the factory inventory continued to be stocked, and the port inventory continued to be destocked [6]. 3.2 Technical Analysis This week, the main 10 - contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to have a bullish and volatile adjustment next week [105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Supply - side**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.33%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 341,725 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.67%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 139,410 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.28%. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, with a significant increase in scheduled production [7]. - **Demand - side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 36.91%, unchanged from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 32.96%, a month - on - month increase of 0.869 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 72.86%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.06 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 77.97%, a month - on - month increase of 0.429 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - **Cost - side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 230.8115 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 8.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 539.6422 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 10.30%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,641.85 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit decrease of 0.00%, higher than the historical average, and scheduled production may increase [8]. - **Overall Outlook**: The cost of calcium carbide method is strengthening, the cost of ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is strengthening. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, with an increase in scheduled production. The overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,958 - 5,058 [9]. - **Leveraging Factors**: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [12]. - **Restraining Factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slowly consumed inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. - **Main Logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and poor recovery of domestic demand [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 PVC Market Overview - **Price Changes**: Various PVC - related prices showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,930 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.20%. The price of some contracts also had corresponding changes [15]. - **Inventory Changes**: Factory inventory was 326,702 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.10%. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 250,202 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.68%. Ethylene factory inventory was 76,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14%. Social inventory was 492,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.49%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.4 days, a month - on - month decrease of 3.57% [10][15]. - **Operating Rate Changes**: The overall downstream operating rate and the operating rates of different downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin) had different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [8][15]. 3.2 PVC Futures Market - **Base - price Trend**: On August 20, the base price of the 01 contract was - 78 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price [10]. - **Difference Analysis**: The differences between different contracts (such as 1 - 9, 5 - 9) showed different trends over time [24]. 3.3 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: - **Lancoke**: The price, cost, profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily output of Lancoke showed different trends over different time periods [27]. - **Calcium Carbide**: The price, cost, profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production of calcium carbide also had different trends [29]. - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: The prices and production volumes of liquid chlorine and raw salt changed over time [31]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price, cost, profit, operating rate, production, maintenance volume, and inventory of caustic soda showed different trends [33][36]. - **PVC Supply Trend**: The capacity utilization rate, profit, production, and maintenance volume of calcium carbide and ethylene methods in PVC production had different trends over time [37][39][41]. - **Demand Trend**: The sales volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of PVC showed different trends over time. The investment, construction, new construction, sales, and completion areas in the real estate market also had an impact on PVC demand. Additionally, social financing scale increments, M2 increments, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment growth rates were also analyzed [43][45][47][52][54]. - **Inventory Situation**: The exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and inventory days of production enterprises showed different trends over time [57]. - **Ethylene Method - Related**: The import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, price differences of ethylene method FOB and vinyl chloride import showed different trends over time [59]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import of PVC in different months of 2024 and 2025 were presented [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC increased this week. The output in July 2025 was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises this week was 80.33%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 341,725 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.67%, while that of ethylene enterprises was 139,410 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.28%. It is expected that the maintenance will decrease next week, and the scheduled production will increase significantly [7]. - The overall downstream demand is weak. The overall downstream operating rate is 42.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles is 36.91%, unchanged from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes is 32.96%, a month - on - month increase of 0.869 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films is 72.86%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.06 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin is 77.97%, a month - on - month increase of 0.429 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive, but the current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - The cost side shows different trends. The profit of calcium carbide method is - 230.8115 yuan/ton, and the loss decreased by 8.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method is - 539.6422 yuan/ton, and the loss increased by 10.30% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference is 2,661.85 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 1.00% month - on - month, higher than the historical average, which may lead to an increase in scheduled production [8]. - The overall situation is that the cost of calcium carbide method is strengthening, the cost of ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is strengthening. The supply pressure has increased this week, and the scheduled production is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,949 - 5,053 [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: The supply pressure increased this week. In July 2025, the PVC output was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises this week was 80.33%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 341,725 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.67%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 139,410 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.28%. It is expected that the maintenance will decrease next week, and the scheduled production will increase significantly [7]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream demand is weak. The overall downstream operating rate is 42.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Different downstream sectors have different trends, but generally, the demand is not strong. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive, but the current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - **Cost**: The profit of calcium carbide method is - 230.8115 yuan/ton, and the loss decreased by 8.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method is - 539.6422 yuan/ton, and the loss increased by 10.30% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference is 2,661.85 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 1.00% month - on - month, higher than the historical average, which may lead to an increase in scheduled production [8]. - **Other Factors**: The basis on August 19 was - 71 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The factory inventory was 326,702 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.10%, the social inventory was 492,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.49%. The MA20 of the disk is downward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20. The net position of the main force is short, and the short position increased [10]. - **Expectation**: The cost of calcium carbide method is strengthening, the cost of ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is strengthening. The supply pressure has increased this week, and the scheduled production is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,949 - 5,053 [9]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - Includes yesterday's market data on various indicators such as PVC prices, spreads, inventory, and downstream operating rates. For example, the price of 01 contract decreased by 1.05% compared with the previous value, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 0.66%, and the factory inventory decreased by 3.10% [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Base - price Trend**: The base - price relationship between the spot and futures is presented, showing the change trend of the base price over time [17]. - **Price and Volume Trends**: The price and trading volume trends of PVC futures are shown, including the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and moving averages such as MA10, MA5, MA20, MA60, and MA120. The change trends of the positions of the top 5 and top 20 seats are also presented [20]. - **Spread Analysis**: The spread trends between different contracts, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread, are analyzed [23]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: Analyzes the prices, costs, profits, operating rates, and inventories of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and the cost - profit situation of the chlor - alkali industry. For example, the price trend of semi - coke in Shenmu, the cost - profit situation of calcium carbide in Shaanxi, the price and production of liquid chlorine, the price and production of raw salt, the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and production of 32% caustic soda in Shandong, and the cost - profit situation of the chlor - alkali industry in Shandong are all presented [26][28][30][32][35]. - **Supply Trend**: Analyzes the capacity utilization rates, profits, production, and maintenance volumes of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production. For example, the capacity utilization rate of the calcium carbide method this week is 79.96%, a month - on - month increase of 1.67%, and the capacity utilization rate of the ethylene method is 81.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.28% [37][39][41]. - **Demand Trend**: Analyzes the sales volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of PVC. It also includes the relationship between PVC demand and real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government special bond issuance, and infrastructure investment. For example, the daily sales volume of PVC traders in the East China region (excluding Shandong) is presented, and the relationship between PVC demand and real estate investment and construction is analyzed [43][47][52][54]. - **Inventory Situation**: Analyzes the inventory situation of PVC, including exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory warehouse inventory, ethylene factory warehouse inventory, and social inventory. For example, the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory warehouse inventory decreased by 3.68% month - on - month, and the social inventory increased by 2.49% month - on - month [56]. - **Ethylene Method - Related**: Analyzes the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads in the ethylene method. For example, the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane and the export volume of PVC are presented, and the price spread between Tianjin and Taiwan in the ethylene method is analyzed [58]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents the monthly supply - demand situation of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including export volume, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import volume [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC has rebounded, with increased supply this week and expected further increases in production scheduling next week. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4999 - 5109. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [7][8][9]. - The bullish factors include the resumption of supply, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. The bearish factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.33%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 341,725 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.67%, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 139,410 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.28%. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase significantly [7]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Different downstream sectors have different operating rate changes, and the shipping cost is bearish. The current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of calcium carbide - based production was - 230.8115 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 8.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene - based production was - 539.6422 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 10.30%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,711.85 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 1.10%, higher than the historical average, and production scheduling may increase [8]. - **Other Aspects**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing. On August 18, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 124 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Factory inventory was 326,702 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.10%, and social inventory was 492,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.49%. The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [8][9][10]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview The report presents yesterday's PVC market data, including prices, spreads, inventory, operating rates, and profits of different types of enterprises and products, as well as their changes compared with the previous period [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend The report shows the historical trend chart of PVC basis, including the relationship between basis, East China market price, and the closing price of the main contract [17][18]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread The report shows the historical trend chart of the spread of the PVC main contract, including the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread in 2024 and 2025 [23][24]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors - **Lancoke**: It shows the historical trends of Lancoke medium - grade material price, cost - profit, operating rate, weekly inventory, and daily output [26][27]. - **Calcium Carbide**: It shows the historical trends of Shaanxi calcium carbide mainstream price, Wuhai weekly calcium carbide cost - profit, calcium carbide operating rate, maintenance loss, and production [28][29]. - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: It shows the historical trends of liquid chlorine price, production, raw salt price, and monthly production [30][32]. - **Caustic Soda**: It shows the historical trends of 32% caustic soda price in Shandong, caustic soda cost - profit, sample enterprise caustic soda operating rate, weekly production, and maintenance volume [33][34]. 3.6 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend It shows the historical trends of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC capacity utilization rates, calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC profits, PVC daily production, weekly maintenance volume, weekly PVC capacity utilization rate, and weekly sample enterprise PVC production [38][39][40]. 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - It shows the historical trends of PVC daily trader sales volume, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly PVC production - sales ratio, PVC apparent consumption, PVC downstream average operating rate, and the operating rates of different downstream sectors such as profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin [43][44][45]. - It also shows the historical trends of real estate investment completion amount, housing construction area, new housing construction area, commercial housing sales area, and housing completion area, as well as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year [52][54][55]. 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Inventory It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based factory inventory, ethylene - based factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [56][57]. 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method It shows the historical trends of vinyl chloride import volume, dichloroethane import volume, PVC export volume, ethylene - based FOB spread (Tianjin - Taiwan), and vinyl chloride import spread (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) [58][59]. 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet It shows the monthly supply - demand situation of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [61][62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the steel industry is ★★ [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the steel price had a short - term decline, but the outlook for the black sector remains bullish. It is expected that the steel price will show a moderately bullish and volatile trend in the medium term [5][35] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: Involves the daily K - line chart of the main contract of rebar futures [6] - **Spot Price**: As of August 15, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai and Tianjin was 3,300 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day [12] - **Basis and Spread**: No specific analysis results are provided, only the topic is mentioned [13] Important Market Information - From January to July, national real estate development investment was 535.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.0%; residential investment was 412.08 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.9%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.38731 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. In July, the national industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, the national service production index increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year. The national economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend [16] - On August 15, 2025, the People's Bank of China carried out a 500 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of 6 months [16] Supply - side Situation - Mysteel's survey shows that the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.59%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16% and a year - on - year increase of 4.75%. The average daily hot metal output was 2.4066 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.34 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.189 million tons. The steel mill profitability rate was 65.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.60% and a year - on - year increase of 61.04% [5][33] - In July, China's steel output was 122.95 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%; from January to July, the steel output was 860.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. In July, China's crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%; from January to July, the crude steel output was 594.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. In July, China's pig iron output was 70.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%; from January to July, the pig iron output was 505.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3% [5][33] - In early August, key steel enterprises produced 20.74 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.074 million tons, a daily output increase of 4.7% month - on - month. It is estimated that the national daily output of crude steel was 2.68 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.7%; the daily output of pig iron was 2.33 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.2%; and the daily output of steel was 4.13 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7% [34] Demand - side Situation - As of July 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 50.6, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2%; the current value of the purchasing manager's index for the steel circulation industry was 49.8, a month - on - month increase of 4.2% [25] Fundamental Analysis - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 138.1927 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.07 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 3.3467 million tons, an increase of 0.1282 million tons; the number of ships at the port was 93, a decrease of 12. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 143.8157 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.143 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 3.468 million tons, an increase of 0.1035 million tons [33] 后市展望 - Last week, the steel price had a short - term decline, but the black sector is still expected to be bullish. It is expected that the steel price will show a moderately bullish and volatile trend in the medium term [35] Operation Strategy - **Single - sided**: It is recommended to take a bullish approach on dips [5][37] - **Arbitrage**: Stay on the sidelines [5][37] - **Options**: Consider selling put options [5][37]