交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2026年2月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘白天下跌之后有反弹，依然弱势。供应方面，前期减产的产能开始恢复生产，进口货 源陆续到货，印尼寒锐镍板也有大量提供，市场供应充足。产业链上，镍矿看涨情绪较浓重，菲律宾 与印尼都有强支撑。镍铁价格继续上涨，成本线上升。不锈钢库存开始回升，要注意库存回升之后不 锈钢价格或有反转。精炼镍库存持续高位，过剩格局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求 提振有限。偏空 2、基差：现货140200，基差10550，偏多 3、库存：LME库存285528，-756，上交所仓单46574，-302，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净多，多减，偏多 6、结论 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2026年2月2日 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡回落走势，收20日均线之上,20日均线向上；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净多头，多减；偏多。 6、预期：LME库存仓单小幅增加；上期所仓单小幅增加；沪锌ZN2603：震荡 盘整。 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面： 外媒1月21日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年11月，全球锌板产量为119.7万吨,消费量为116.8万吨,供应过剩 2.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌板产量为1275.61万吨,消费量为1310.65万吨,供应 短缺35.04万吨.11月份,全球锌矿产量为106.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌矿产量为 1214.19万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货25800，基差- ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 周末现货价格持稳，成交表现偏弱，相应的螺纹钢供需格局变化不大，建筑钢厂生产平稳，螺 纹产量环比微增，供应持续回升，但春节临近短流程钢厂将减产，增量空间有限。与此同时，螺纹 钢需求表现偏弱，高频需求指标持续下行，继续位于近年来农历同期低位，而下游行业也未好转， 弱势需求格局未变，仍易拖累钢价。总之，螺纹钢供应高位平稳运行，而需求表现偏弱，基本面延 续弱势格局，淡季钢价继续承压，相对利好则是成本支撑，预计钢价延续低位震荡运行态势，关注 库存变化情况。 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026 年 2 月 2 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 基本面偏弱运行，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘 ...

期货研究报告 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 2 月 2 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 | 多空博弈，焦煤区间运行 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 基本面变化不大，焦炭维持低位 运行 | 备注： 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：强势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：根据钢联统计，1 月 30 日当周，全国 523 家 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the 05 contract showed an upward trend. Next week, demand may remain weak, and with a projected decrease in maintenance and a slight increase in scheduled production, the market may experience narrow - range adjustments [5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - This week, the 05 contract opened at 4,806 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 4,921 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 2.39% [5]. - In December 2025, PVC production was 2.137356 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.70%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.74%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 344,650 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.03%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 137,430 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.86%. Supply pressure decreased this week. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and scheduled production is expected to increase slightly [5]. - The overall downstream operating rate was 44.86%, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, and paste resin were also higher than the historical average, while the operating rate of downstream films decreased by 0.36 percentage points. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain weak [5]. - The profit of calcium carbide method was - 799.55 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 20.60%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 49.44 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 64.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 1,908.23 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in profit of 3.80%, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may face pressure [6]. - Factory inventory was 308,109 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.85%. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 223,969 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.78%, and ethylene factory inventory was 84,140 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.69%. Social inventory was 576,486 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.65%. The inventory days of production enterprises was 5.1 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92%. Overall inventory is at a neutral level [6]. 3.2 PVC Futures Market - The report presents the basis trend, price and trading volume trends of the main contract, and the spread analysis of the main contract through charts, but no specific text analysis is provided [10][13][16]. 3.3 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, etc. of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and the cost - profit and consumption of chlor - alkali in Shandong [19][22][25][27][30]. - **PVC Supply Trend**: It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily and weekly production, and weekly maintenance volume of calcium carbide and ethylene methods through charts [32][34]. - **Demand Trend**: It includes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream operating rate of PVC, and the cost, profit, production, and consumption of paste resin. It also presents real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment data [37][39][41][45][47]. - **Inventory**: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [49]. - **Ethylene Method**: It shows the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and the price difference of ethylene FOB and vinyl chloride import through charts [51]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand difference of PVC from November 2024 to December 2025 [54]. 3.4 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 05 contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to experience narrow - range adjustments next week [58].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PTA: Affected by the overnight sharp rise in crude oil, PTA futures fluctuated upward yesterday, but the spot market negotiation atmosphere was light and the spot basis was weak. As the Spring Festival approaches, polyester production cuts are expanding, and PTA supply and demand are accumulating. However, recent capital attention to PTA has increased, with significant position - building and price increases in the past two days, and the PTA processing margin has improved. Under the supply - demand game between PX and PTA, attention should be paid to the unplanned increase in the PTA supply side in the later stage [5]. - MEG: On Wednesday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated and adjusted, and the basis was stable. The intraday ethylene glycol futures showed a range adjustment, with average buying interest in the market. The negotiation volume of recent goods decreased, and some traders were actively selling. In the short term, the ethylene glycol price center is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the commodity and cost trends. Also, as the ethylene glycol price platform rises, be vigilant about the return of the operating load of existing plants [7]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 (Previous Day Review) No relevant content provided. 2.每日提示 (Daily Tips) No relevant content provided. 3.今日关注 (Today's Focus) No relevant content provided. 4.基本面数据 (Fundamental Data) PTA - **Price and Basis**: Spot price is 5250 yuan/ton, 05 - contract basis is - 120, and the futures price is at a premium, showing a bearish signal. The price negotiation range is 5160 - 5300 yuan/ton, and the mainstream spot basis yesterday was 05 - 80 [5][6]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 3.62 days, a 0.02 - day increase compared to the previous period, which is bearish [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish signal [6]. - **Position Analysis**: The net position of the main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [6]. MEG - **Price and Basis**: The price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated and adjusted on Wednesday, and the basis was stable. The intraday futures showed a range adjustment, with average buying interest. The recent goods were mainly traded, and the negotiation volume of February goods decreased. The price of recent overseas shipments was around 458 - 464 US dollars/ton, and the price of February shipments was around 468 US dollars/ton. The spot price is 3843 yuan/ton, 05 - contract basis is - 127, and the futures price is at a premium, showing a bearish signal [7][8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 74.1 tons, a 0.8 - ton increase compared to the previous period, which is bearish [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish signal [8]. - **Position Analysis**: The net position of the main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **PX**: The PX supply - demand balance table shows production, import, demand, inventory changes, and other data from September 2025 to June 2026, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and balance situation of PX during this period [13]. - **PTA**: The PTA supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, consumption, and surplus data from October 2025 to September 2026, as well as year - on - year and cumulative changes in production and consumption [14]. - **MEG**: The ethylene glycol supply - demand balance table shows production, import, consumption, and surplus data from October 2025 to September 2026, as well as year - on - year changes in production, import, and consumption [15]. Price and Profit Data - **Price Changes**: The prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers have changed to varying degrees from January 27 to January 28, 2026 [16]. - **Profit Changes**: The processing margins and profits of PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers have also changed, including PTA processing fees, MEG production profits from different raw materials, and polyester fiber production margins [16]. Other Data and Charts - **PET Bottle Chip**: Data on bottle chip spot prices, production margins, operating rates, capacity utilization, and inventory are provided, showing their trends from 2022 to 2026 [19][20][22][25]. - **Price Spreads**: Data on PTA and MEG month - to - month spreads, basis spreads, and spot spreads are provided, showing their trends from 2022 to 2026 [28][34][41]. - **Inventory Analysis**: Data on the inventory of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester fibers are provided, showing their trends from 2021 to 2026 [44][48]. - **Operating Rates**: Data on the operating rates of PTA, PX, ethylene glycol, polyester, and textile enterprises are provided, showing their trends from 2022 to 2026 [55][59]. - **Profit Analysis**: Data on the production margins of PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers are provided, showing their trends from 2022 to 2026 [62][63][66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the domestic refinery asphalt production plan for February 2026 is 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples decreased, and the sample enterprise output decreased, while the device maintenance volume increased. Next week, the supply pressure may increase. The demand side indicates that the current demand is lower than the historical average level. The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit increased, and the difference between asphalt and delayed coking profit decreased. The crude oil price is strong, which is expected to support the price in the short term. The overall expectation is that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2603 contract oscillating in the range of 3450 - 3506 [7][8]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support. The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - price goods and the overall downward demand, along with the strengthening expectation of the economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [10][11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In February 2026, domestic refinery asphalt production is planned to be 1.023 million tons, a 3.30% month - on - month decrease. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 28.5235%, a 0.72 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease. The sample enterprise output is 476,000 tons, a 2.45% month - on - month decrease, and the device maintenance volume is estimated to be 1.004 million tons, a 4.58% month - on - month increase. Next week, the supply pressure may increase [7]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 26.8%, a 0.01 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease; the construction asphalt开工率 is 6.6%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 6.3119%, a 0.53 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 14%, a 1.00 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 20%, a 1.00 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is 104.92 yuan/ton, a 28.80% month - on - month increase. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 88.7629 yuan/ton, a 2.34% month - on - month decrease. The asphalt processing profit increases, and the difference between asphalt and delayed coking profit decreases. The crude oil price is strong, and it is expected to support the price in the short term [8]. - **Basis**: On January 29, the Shandong spot price is 3210 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 03 contract is - 268 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 862,000 tons, a 5.77% month - on - month increase; the in - factory inventory is 609,000 tons, a 2.09% month - on - month decrease; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 440,000 tons, a 6.38% month - on - month decrease [8]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 03 contract closes above MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, changing from short to long [8]. - **Expectation**: The refinery's recent production plan has been reduced, reducing the supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, the demand boost is limited, and the overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish. The inventory continues to decline. The crude oil price is strong, and the cost support strengthens in the short term. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2603 contract oscillating in the range of 3450 - 3506 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2026 [19]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [23][24]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2026 [26][27]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It presents the historical crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2026 [29][30][31]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 to 2026 [33][34]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Regional Market Price Trend**: The report shows the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026 [36][37]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: It presents the historical asphalt profit trends from 2019 to 2026 [39][40]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2026 [42][43][44]. - **Supply Side** - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume trends of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2026 [45][46]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026 [48][49]. - **Output**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly output trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [51][53]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: It presents the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output from 2018 to 2026 [54][56]. - **Refinery Asphalt Output**: It shows the historical refinery asphalt output trends from 2019 to 2025 [57][59]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: It presents the historical weekly capacity utilization rate trends of asphalt from 2023 to 2026 [60][61]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2026 [63][64]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: It presents the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2026 [66][67]. - **Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2026 [70][71]. - **In - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It presents the historical trends of the in - factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2026 [73][74]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [76][77]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: It presents the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2026 [80][81]. - **Demand Side** - **Petroleum Coke Output**: It shows the historical petroleum coke output trends from 2019 to 2025 [82][83]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It presents the historical apparent consumption trends from 2019 to 2025 [85][86]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 [88][89]. - **New Local Special Bonds**: It presents the historical trends of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2025 [90]. - **Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year**: It shows the historical year - on - year trends of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024 [90]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [92][93][95]. - **Asphalt开工率** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工率**: It shows the historical heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 trends from 2019 to 2026 [97][98]. - **Asphalt开工率 by Use**: It presents the historical开工率 trends of construction asphalt, modified asphalt, and road - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [100]. - **Downstream开工率**: It shows the historical开工率 trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, shoe - material TPR, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane from 2021 to 2026 [101][102][103]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the asphalt monthly supply - demand balance sheet from 2024 to 2026, including monthly output, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, in - factory inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply and demand of iron ore is loose, with steel mills reducing molten iron production, port inventories increasing, and weak terminal demand. The market is expected to be volatile and bearish. The spot price is at a premium to the futures, the port inventory is increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, the price is below the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is upward, and the main contract has a net long position with more long positions added. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - Steel mills' molten iron production starts to decrease, overall supply and demand are loose, port inventory is accumulating, and terminal demand is weak, which is bearish [2] 3.2 Basis Analysis - The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 840, with a basis of 41; the spot price of Brazilian blend at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 845, with a basis of 46. The spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [2] 3.3 Inventory Analysis - Port inventory is 17,496.53 tons, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, which is bearish [2] 3.4 Market Trend Analysis - The price is below the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is upward, which is neutral [2] 3.5 Main Position Analysis - The main iron ore contract has a net long position with more long positions added, which is bullish [2] 3.6 Market Expectation Analysis - Domestic demand is decreasing and port inventory is accumulating, so the market is expected to be volatile and bearish [2] 3.7 Factors Analysis 3.7.1 Bullish Factors - Molten iron production remains at a high level [6] - Port inventory decreases [6] - Import is at a loss [6] - The price of downstream steel products is rising, and the tolerance for high - priced raw materials is strong [6] 3.7.2 Bearish Factors - Future shipment volume will increase [6] - Terminal demand remains weak [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak. The overall supply is expected to be abundant with high production from alkali plants. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory in soda ash plants is at a historically high level for the same period. The industry's supply-demand mismatch has not been effectively improved, and the short - term outlook is mainly for volatile movement [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: High production from alkali plants and expected abundant supply; declining daily melting volume of downstream float and photovoltaic glass; high inventory in soda ash plants; bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,180 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2605 is 1,224 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 44 yuan, indicating futures are at a premium to the spot; bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 154.42 tons, a 1.51% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average; bearish [2][32]. - **Market trend**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward; bullish [2]. - **Main positions**: Net short position of the main players, with short positions decreasing; bearish [2]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The expected full - production time of the second - phase production line of Yuangxing Energy is postponed [3]. - **Negative factors**: Upcoming resumption of production lines in enterprises and no new maintenance plans, so production is expected to remain high; reduced production of photovoltaic glass, leading to weaker demand for soda ash; the main logic is that supply is high, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level for the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not improved effectively [5]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract increased from 1,198 yuan/ton to 1,224 yuan/ton, a rise of 2.17%. The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe increased from 1,150 yuan/ton to 1,180 yuan/ton, a rise of 2.61%. The main basis decreased from - 48 yuan/ton to - 44 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.33% [6]. 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,180 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. 3.5 Soda Ash Production - **Production profit**: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 168.30 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co - production process is - 108 yuan/ton, at a historically low level [14]. - **Operating rate and output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 86.82%. The weekly output is 77.17 tons, with heavy - quality soda ash production at 41.29 tons, at a historically high level [17][19]. - **Capacity changes**: In 2023, the total new capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; the planned new capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with 100 tons actually put into production [20]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - production ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 99.70% [23]. - **Downstream demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.07 tons, with an operating rate of 71.62% [26]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 154.42 tons, a 1.51% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [32]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a supply - demand balance sheet for soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data such as effective capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [33].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report [2] Group 2: Core Views - The A-share market is expected to enter a volatile trend after a continuous upward movement followed by a decline, with trading volume shrinking and market sentiment cooling. For the bond market, the short - term capital is relatively loose, and the long - end of the bond futures is strengthening, but there are still some resistance levels. The precious metals market is supported by macro - geopolitical events and shows a relatively strong trend. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the prices are oscillating. Other commodity markets also have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals and market factors [2] Group 3: Summaries by Categories Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares have different trends such as a decline after a rally and a weak rebound. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, take profits on some profitable contracts, reduce long positions, and wait for re - entry opportunities [2] - **Bond Futures**: The capital is stable and loose, and the long - end of bond futures is strengthening. It is advisable to temporarily watch on the unilateral strategy and not chase the high. For the spot - futures strategy, pay attention to the positive spreads of TS, T, and TF contracts and the strategy of widening the basis [2] - **Precious Metals**: Gold can be bought at dips above the 20 - day moving average and sell out - of - the - money call options to lock in risks. Silver is in a high - level oscillation, and it is advisable to participate cautiously. Platinum can be bought at dips when it touches the 20 - day moving average, and an option straddle strategy can be used within a certain price range [2] Industrial Products - **Steel and Iron**: Steel has weak supply and demand, with steel prices oscillating. Iron ore supply is in the off - season and ports are accumulating inventory. For coking coal and coke, the market has over - anticipated, and they are expected to be in a downward - biased oscillation. For silicon - related products, the supply - demand situation is improving, and they are in a wide - range oscillation [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper prices are oscillating and inventories are accumulating. Aluminum products are affected by macro factors, and there are different trading strategies for different varieties. Zinc prices are oscillating and falling back, and tin is in a wide - range oscillation. Nickel is in an oscillating adjustment, and stainless steel is in a relatively strong oscillation [2] - **New Energy**: Industrial silicon futures are oscillating, polycrystalline silicon is in a weak - biased oscillation, and lithium carbonate is in a strong - biased operation [2] Energy and Chemical Products - Most products have different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals. For example, PX is in a short - term high - level oscillation, PTA is oscillating and following raw materials, and some products such as short - fiber and bottle - chip are also affected by supply - demand and raw material factors. Some products like ethylene glycol and pure benzene have specific trading strategies based on their inventory and supply - demand situations [2] Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, soybean meal has strong bottom support, palm oil may try to break through the annual resistance level, and products like sugar are in a weak - biased oscillation, while cotton needs to pay attention to the support level [2]