格隆汇1月28日｜周二，美、布两油期货结算价上涨3%，分别报62.39和67.57美元/盎司。据分析师和交 易商估计，因一场严重冬季风暴横扫全美、令能源基础设施和电网承压，美国石油生产商在上周末损失 的产量最高达200万桶/日，约占全国产量的 15%。经纪公司PVM的石油分析师Tamas Varga称："美国的 寒冷天气可能会导致石油库存在未来几周内大幅下降，尤其是如果这种天气持续下去的话。"船舶跟踪 服务公司Vortexa称，在寒冷天气的影响下，美国墨西哥湾沿岸港口的原油和液化天然气出口量周日降 至零。该公司分析主管称，随着港口重新开放，周一出口反弹，流量高于季节性标准。此外，两位知情 消息人士早前表示，哈萨克斯坦最大的腾吉兹油田(Tengiz)可能会在2月7日之前恢复不到一半的正常产 量，该油田正在从火灾和停电事故中缓慢恢复。不过，运营哈萨克斯坦主要出口管道的CPC公司表示， 在其位于俄罗斯黑海沿岸的码头的三个系泊点之一完成维护后，该码头的装载能力已恢复到满负荷状 态。 ...

石油ETF鹏华紧密跟踪国证石油天然气指数，国证石油天然气指数反映沪深北交易所石油天然气产业相 关上市公司的证券价格变化情况。 数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，国证石油天然气指数(399439)前十大权重股分别为中国石油、中国石 化、中国海油、杰瑞股份、广汇能源、招商轮船、新奥股份、九丰能源、中远海能、大众公用，前十大 权重股合计占比67.11%。 消息面上，美国天然气期货涨超33%，突破7美元/百万英热，创下自2022年12月以来的最高水平。因气 温骤降导致油井冻结，美国天然气产量降至两年来最低水平。 华泰证券指出，2026年1月以来，委内瑞拉、伊朗等区域紧张局势再次引发市场供应风险担忧，1月23日 WTI/Brent期货价格收于61.07/65.88美元/桶，较2025年12月末上涨6.4%/8.3%。区域溢价已导致淡季油价 筑底反弹，随着需求回升及全球性储备性累库，2026年第二季度至第三季度油价有望见底上探，叠加美 联储降息对需求拉动，亚非拉地区成品油需求或景气上行，上调2026年布伦特均价为65美元/桶（前值 62美元/桶）。长期而言，考虑主要产油国边际成本及"利重于量"诉求，油价中枢存60美元 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong oil stocks experienced a collective rise at the beginning of trading, driven by an increase in international oil prices and geopolitical tensions affecting oil supply [1] Group 1: Market Performance - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) saw a price increase of over 2%, while China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) rose by 1.2% [2] - China Petroleum (PetroChina) increased by 2.07% to a price of 8.380, and Sinopec rose by 1.63% to 5.000 [2] - China Oilfield Services and Shanghai Petrochemical also showed gains, with increases of 1.39% and 0.69% respectively [2] Group 2: Oil Price Influences - International oil prices rose by over 1.5% in the previous night’s trading [1] - Everbright Securities highlighted the impact of the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts and ongoing global trade conflicts on oil demand expectations for 2026 [1] - The geopolitical risk premium for oil has increased due to heightened tensions in Iran, contributing to rising oil prices [1] Group 3: OPEC+ Decisions - OPEC+ has decided to pause production increases for Q1 2026, which may alleviate market concerns regarding oil supply [1] - Future production levels will be determined based on changes in the oil market [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the aluminum market is influenced by multiple factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and rising oil prices, which are expected to drive aluminum prices higher [1][2] - The latest closing price for London aluminum is reported at $3196 per ton, with a slight increase of $5, or 0.16%, while the Shanghai aluminum futures market shows a closing price of 24780 yuan per ton, up 170 yuan, or 0.69% [1] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is constrained, making it difficult to increase output, while the demand from the new energy sector is expected to boost aluminum demand significantly [2][3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment shows that the U.S. December CPI data indicates a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, which is lower than analyst expectations, reinforcing market bets on interest rate cuts [2] - The domestic aluminum supply is primarily from aluminum water, with a low proportion of deliverable aluminum ingots, which supports aluminum prices [2] - Despite weak seasonal demand leading to a decrease in orders and operating rates for aluminum processing enterprises, the rapid growth in new energy demand, particularly from electric vehicles and data centers, is reshaping global metal demand [2][3]

Group 1 - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects a decline in U.S. crude oil production this year and next, following a record high last year, while oil demand is expected to remain stable this year [1] - Huafu Petrochemical team indicates that crude oil prices have surged by 3%, with potential for further increases due to worsening regional tensions and supply risks, particularly from Iran, which produces 3 million barrels per day, contributing nearly half of its exports to global daily consumption [1] - The National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) has seen a 0.63% increase, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Intercontinental Oil and Gas (up 4.75%) and Jerry Holdings (up 4.04%) [1] Group 2 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) include China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, collectively accounting for 67.11% of the index [2] - The Oil and Gas ETF (159697) closely tracks the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index, reflecting the price changes of publicly listed companies in the oil and gas sector [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have risen to their highest level since November, influenced by President Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran [1] Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - The potential reduction in Iranian oil supply is alleviating earlier bearish sentiments caused by expectations of a global supply surplus [1] - Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices increased by 0.5% in early trading, reaching $64.17 per barrel and $59.81 per barrel, respectively [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The market is weighing the implications of the situation in Venezuela alongside the developments regarding Iran [1]

Group 1 - Tongyuan Petroleum, based in Chengdu, is a leading company in perforation technology, providing a full range of oil and gas engineering services, and is well-positioned to benefit from rising oil prices through increased orders and revenue [1][36] - Huai Oil Co., located in Jiangsu, has a stable oil and gas production base and benefits from regional cooperation, allowing for dual revenue growth during rising oil prices [2][37] - CNOOC Services, the largest marine oil and gas engineering service provider in China, is set to see significant increases in drilling platform utilization and service orders due to rising oil prices [3][38] Group 2 - Sinopec Oilfield Services, a leading player in oil and gas engineering services, is expected to benefit from increased internal orders and global oil development opportunities as oil prices rise [4][39] - Beiken Energy, based in Xinjiang, focuses on oilfield technical services and is well-positioned to expand its business in response to rising oil prices and increased exploration activities in the western oil and gas regions [5][41] - Zhongman Petroleum, with integrated oil and gas exploration and service capabilities, is likely to see increased orders and revenue from both domestic and international projects as oil prices rise [6][42] Group 3 - Potential Energy, specializing in oil and gas exploration technology services, is expected to benefit from increased demand for high-precision exploration services as oil prices rise [8][43] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation, the largest offshore oil producer in China, is positioned to benefit from rising oil prices through increased revenue from oil sales and a focus on deepwater development [9][44] - Bomeike, focusing on marine oil and gas engineering equipment, is set to see increased demand for its products as marine oil and gas projects accelerate due to rising oil prices [10][45] Group 4 - Blue Flame Holdings, a leader in coalbed methane development, is expected to benefit from rising demand for clean energy and increased coalbed methane sales prices as oil prices rise [11][47] - Shouhua Gas, with a comprehensive natural gas business model, is likely to see revenue growth from both upstream exploration and downstream distribution as oil prices and natural gas prices rise [12][48] - CNOOC Engineering, a leading marine oil and gas engineering construction company, is expected to gain stable orders and enhance profitability through deep cooperation with CNOOC as oil prices rise [13][49] Group 5 - Intercontinental Oil and Gas, focusing on overseas oil resource development, is well-positioned to benefit from rising oil prices through increased sales revenue from its overseas oil fields [14][50] - Guanghui Energy, a comprehensive energy service provider, is expected to see significant revenue growth from its oil and gas extraction and LNG production businesses as oil prices rise [15][51] - CNOOC Development, providing comprehensive marine oil and gas services, is likely to see increased demand for its services as oil production rises due to higher oil prices [16][52] Group 6 - China Petroleum Engineering, a leading oil and gas engineering construction company, is set to benefit from increased orders due to rising oil prices and expanded overseas market opportunities [18][54] - New Natural Gas, focusing on natural gas exploration and distribution, is expected to see revenue growth from both upstream and downstream operations as oil and natural gas prices rise [19][55] - ST Xinchao, despite its current ST status, is expected to see improved performance from its oil and gas business as oil prices rise, benefiting from the synergy between its oil and chemical operations [20][56]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting scheduled between Trump and major oil company executives aims to discuss methods to increase Venezuelan oil production amidst rising international oil prices [1]. Group 1: Oil Industry Dynamics - The meeting will include representatives from Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips, and Chevron, indicating a strong interest from top U.S. oil companies in Venezuelan oil production [1]. - An increase in oil prices may lead oil companies to boost capital expenditures, which could enhance oilfield service activity [2]. Group 2: Company Implications - The demand for core technologies such as perforation segment technology and cable logging technology is expected to rise if oil companies increase their capital spending [1]. - However, the decision to increase capital expenditures by oil companies remains uncertain, highlighting the need for caution among investors [2].

Core Viewpoint - ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) stock prices rose due to analysts warning that escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran could threaten oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially leading to an increase in oil prices by $10 to $20 per barrel in extreme disruption scenarios [1][2]. Group 1 - ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) experienced stock price increases on Monday morning [1][2]. - Analysts have indicated that the U.S.-Iran situation may escalate, posing risks to oil transport in the Strait of Hormuz [1][2]. - In extreme cases of disruption, oil prices could rise by $10 to $20 per barrel [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oil market is currently experiencing a downward adjustment phase, but due to the recent surge in international oil prices, the decline is expected to narrow, potentially leading to a price increase in the near future, marking the first price hike of 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Adjustment Dynamics - As of January 11, 2026, the second round of oil price adjustment has completed 30% of its pricing cycle, with current expectations indicating a narrowing of the price drop to approximately 50 yuan/ton, translating to a decrease of 0.04 to 0.05 yuan per liter [1]. - The first round of oil price adjustment for 2026 was implemented on January 6, 2026, but did not meet the criteria for an increase, resulting in a continued low price level, which has been beneficial for consumers [1]. - The recent international oil price increases have significantly impacted the domestic pricing cycle, with expectations that the current downward trend may shift to a stable phase, followed by a potential increase [2]. Group 2: International Oil Price Trends - On January 10, 2026, international oil prices rose for two consecutive trading days, with WTI crude oil reaching $59.12 per barrel and Brent crude oil at $63.34 per barrel, marking a cumulative increase of 5.59% and 5.64% respectively over two days [2]. - The average price of WTI crude oil for the first four days of the current pricing cycle is $57.50 per barrel, while Brent crude oil averages $61.50 per barrel, indicating a significant rise above previous cycle averages [2]. - The upcoming oil price adjustment window is set for January 20, 2026, with the next seven statistical days being crucial for determining the final price adjustments [2]. Group 3: Current Domestic Fuel Prices - As of January 11, 2026, the average prices for refined oil products in China are as follows: 92 gasoline at 6.7 yuan/liter, 95 gasoline at 7.15 yuan/liter, and 0 diesel at 6.31 yuan/liter, reflecting a near four-year low [4]. - Consumers are advised to monitor international oil price trends closely and plan their refueling accordingly to mitigate potential increases in fuel costs [4].