土耳其能源部长：在以色列-伊朗冲突后，国内石油和天然气供应没有出现问题，油价可能会继续上 涨。 ...

布油、美油双双转涨。 ...

Group 1 - The expectation of rising oil prices is leading to a cautious stance from Federal Reserve policymakers regarding further interest rate cuts, resulting in a decline in U.S. Treasury prices [1] - U.S. Treasury yields have increased by 2 to 6 basis points across various maturities, with the 2-year Treasury yield rising to approximately 3.97% as traders reduce bets on Fed easing [1] - The bond market is awaiting the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting, with most expecting rates to remain unchanged, but the market is focused on the quarterly economic and interest rate forecast report [1] Group 2 - The recent conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a decline in U.S. Treasury prices, with historical data suggesting that such sell-off pressures may have lasting effects [2] - Initial spikes in oil prices due to the conflict have receded, with WTI crude oil prices dropping by as much as 4.9% before settling at a 2.3% decline [2] - Concerns over market volatility are rising, with implications for both risk assets and interest rate assets as implied volatility increases [2] Group 3 - The recent 30-year U.S. Treasury auction showed stronger-than-expected demand, while the 20-year auction was relatively lackluster, with a yield of 4.942% aligning with expectations [3] - The pressure on the U.S. Treasury yield curve may increase due to geopolitical uncertainties, prompting investors to consider higher military spending [3] - The recent auction alleviated some risks associated with holding long-term assets, but it remains uncertain whether this will lead to significant market movements ahead of the Fed's policy announcement [3]

荷兰国际：美元上行潜力有限 金十数据6月16日讯，荷兰国际分析师Francesco Pesole表示，美联储可能在周三会议上对降息持谨慎态 度，但这可能不会对美元提供太多支撑。他在一份报告中表示，美联储可能会利用以色列-伊朗冲突导 致的油价上涨作为抵制特朗普降息呼吁的理由。然而，在以色列和伊朗的袭击开始后，美元未能维持最 初的上涨势头，这是市场不信任美元的一个症状。他说，即使是油价上涨等利好美元的事件，加上地缘 政治紧张局势，也无法阻止卖空者在美元试图复苏时做空美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel continues to support upward pressure on oil prices, despite a relatively calm market reaction at the beginning of the week [1] Oil Market Analysis - Analysts from Swissquote Bank indicate that both WTI and Brent crude oil opened higher but quickly retraced some gains [1] - Natural gas prices initially surged at the opening but also experienced a decline, similar to gold prices which retraced some of their earlier gains [1] - Some analysts believe that the conflict may ultimately suppress global economic growth, thereby limiting the potential for oil price increases [1] - Conversely, others argue that high oil prices could incentivize shale oil producers to increase output [1] Supply Risk Factors - The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for one-third of global oil flow, faces risks of supply disruptions, suggesting that the balance of risks still leans towards rising oil prices [1]

智通财经APP获悉，在周末以色列和伊朗相互攻击对方领土之后，本周伊始油价继续上涨。石油分析师 们正密切关注着油价的进一步上涨走势，因为局势进一步升级增加了中东地区石油供应面临的风险。布 伦特原油价格一度上涨 5.5%，随后涨幅有所收窄，最新位于每桶 76 美元上方。而WTI原油价格则接近 每桶 75 美元。 能源分析公司Energy Aspects 地缘政治部门负责人Richard Bronze表示："既然这一门槛已经越过，人们 就会开始质疑以色列是否会进一步打击伊朗的能源设施。我们似乎正处于一个不断升级的循环之中。" 以色列在周六发动的一系列袭击中，暂时摧毁了与伊朗最大天然气田——南帕斯气田相连的一处天然气 处理设施，并在打击行动中对燃料储存罐进行了攻击，这是其针对伊朗核计划的行动的一部分。 尽管此次袭击主要针对的是伊朗国内能源系统，而非对国际市场的出口业务，但石油交易商和分析师们 正为未来可能出现的更多动荡局面做准备，上周五油价出现了三年来最大的涨幅。上周五油价上涨逾 13%，但随后涨幅有所收窄。尽管美国实施了制裁，但伊朗仍是OPEC中产量第三大的国家。 加拿大皇家银行资本市场公司全球大宗商品策略主管、前 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - The escalation of conflicts related to nuclear issues between Israel and Iran has led to a significant increase in oil prices, with WTI crude futures rising by 13.81% and Brent oil futures increasing by 12.80% from June 6 to June 13, 2025 [6]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, have contributed to market volatility and concerns over oil supply [6]. - The report highlights that while there are short-term price increases due to geopolitical risks, there are long-term concerns regarding oversupply in the oil market [7]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemical - The report notes that the geopolitical situation has led to a rise in oil prices, with specific data indicating a 13.81% increase in WTI and a 12.80% increase in Brent prices during the specified period [6]. - The U.S. has seen a notable increase in gasoline and jet fuel demand as the summer travel season approaches, despite a current oversupply in gasoline and distillate inventories [6]. - OPEC's production increase in May was below expectations, alleviating some concerns about oversupply in the short term [6]. Fluorochemical - The upcoming 618 shopping festival is expected to boost demand for air conditioning, with production of household air conditioners projected to increase by 29.3% and 22.8% year-on-year in June and July 2025, respectively [6]. - Prices for refrigerants such as R32 and R134a remain high due to strong demand and supply constraints [6]. - The report suggests that the supply of second-generation refrigerants will continue to decrease, while the production of third-generation refrigerants is limited, supporting price stability [6]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor materials sector is experiencing a positive trend with inventory reduction and improving end-market conditions, suggesting a potential rebound in the industry index [7]. - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in semiconductor materials as the market shows signs of recovery [7].

能源情报集团记者Amena Bakr：如果（能不能成还是个大问号）伊朗关闭霍尔木兹海峡的这种情况真 的发生，油价将飙升至三位数。 ...

Group 1 - The Israeli airstrikes on Iran have raised concerns about potential disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies, leading to a significant increase in international oil prices [2][3] - On June 13, Brent crude oil surged over 13% to $78.5, while WTI crude rose by 14% to $77.62, indicating a volatile market response to geopolitical tensions [2] - Iran's oil production is projected to reach 200 million tons in 2024, accounting for 4% of global oil output, with the Strait of Hormuz being a critical route for approximately 30% of global seaborne oil trade [2][3] Group 2 - Market analysts suggest that a strong blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran could significantly impact global oil supply, with Morgan Stanley estimating a potential reduction of 2.1 million barrels per day in Iranian oil exports [3] - Current oil prices are around $70, which is approximately $4 higher than the estimated fair value of $66, indicating that the market has priced in a 7% probability of worst-case scenarios [3] - The geopolitical situation has created a favorable environment for oil and gas exploration and production companies, as well as oilfield service providers, potentially leading to structural investment opportunities [3]

截至06月13日13:25，油气ETF(159697.SZ)上涨2.70%，其关联指数国证油气(399439.SZ)上涨2.47%；主 要成分股中，中国海油上涨2.76%，招商轮船上7.10%，中国石油上涨1.24%，中远海能上涨7.55%，洲 际油气上涨9.95%。 消息面上，当地时间6月13日以色列空军对伊朗境内数十个与核计划及其他军事设施相关的目标发动空 袭，引发地缘政治紧张局势升级，市场避险情绪显著升温，国际油价应声大涨，布伦特原油盘中一度涨 超13%，WTI原油期货同步攀升逾13%至逾4个月新高，带动油气产业链相关资产走强。 券商研究方面，信达指出看好三季度油价，抓住做多机会： 三、油服公司存在错杀：一方面油公司的资本开支并未出现因二季度油价回落而大幅下调情况；另一方 面油服相关费率并未出现明显回调；三是油服公司绝大部分钻井船、海工装备等已有中长期合同，合同 期内费率不变。中海油服、海油工程业绩增长确定性极高。 关联产品： 油气ETF（159697），联接基金（A类 019827，C类 019828，I类 022861） 关联个股： 中国石油（601857）、中国石化（600028）、中国海油（60 ...