Employment Data - In June 2025, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 110,000 and the revised previous value of 144,000[11] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and previous 4.2%[11] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.7% year-on-year, below the expected 3.9% and revised previous increase of 3.8%[11] Government vs. Private Sector Employment - Government jobs contributed nearly half of the new employment, with 73,000 jobs added, significantly higher than the previous month's 7,000[15] - Private sector employment weakened, with service sector jobs dropping from 141,000 to 68,000, indicating potential economic pressure from tariff disruptions[18] - Retail sector employment rebounded slightly, adding 2,000 jobs compared to a loss of 7,000 in the previous month[24] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.3%, down from 62.4% in the previous month, with a notable decline in youth employment willingness[27] - The U6 unemployment rate, which includes those working part-time for economic reasons, fell to 7.7% from 7.8%[32] - Permanent unemployment decreased by 29,000, while temporary job losses also declined, suggesting stability in the job market[32] Federal Reserve Outlook - Given the unsustainable rise in government employment and the risk of weakening non-farm data, the probability of the Federal Reserve restarting rate cuts in the second half of 2025 is significant[20] - Market expectations indicate a 60% chance of a rate cut in September 2025, with only a 5.2% chance in July[22]

以"买买买"著称的美国消费者也开始存钱了？ 近期，美国消费者在社交媒体上创造了一个新词汇："报复性储蓄"，用来形容他们削减开支以重建 储蓄的趋势。 根据美国公募基金公司先锋集团（Vanguard）的一项新调查，近四分之三（71%）的美国人表示， 他们计划在今夏调整储蓄策略，优先考虑应急储蓄和灵活性。 2025.06. 30 本文字数：2649，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 冯迪凡 消费者在美国加利福尼亚州洛杉矶县罗斯米德的一家塔吉特商店内购物。新华社资料图 牛津经济研究院美国资深经济学家范登·豪滕（Nancy Vanden Houten）对第一财经记者解释道， 尽管目前尚不清楚最终将实施哪些关税措施，或这些措施将持续多久，但这种不确定性将对美国经济 活动构成压力，使企业更不愿投资新项目或招聘新员工。 彭博经济研究（Bloomberg economics）经济学家温格（Eliza Winger）在发给第一财经记者的 报告中表示， 世界大型企业研究会的6月消费者信心指数回落幅度几乎相当于5月全部涨幅，关税仍 是消费者最担心的问题。 "我们认为，今年夏天，一些商品可能出现与关税相关的价格上涨，消费者 的 ...

Group 1 - The core trend among American consumers is shifting from "revenge spending" to "revenge saving," indicating a reduction in spending to rebuild savings [1][6] - A recent survey by Vanguard shows that 71% of Americans plan to adjust their savings strategies this summer, prioritizing emergency savings and flexibility [1][6] - The personal savings rate in the U.S. has increased from 3.5% in December last year to 4.5% in May this year, reflecting a growing trend towards saving [1][3] Group 2 - Concerns over tariffs, inflation, job security, and market volatility are driving consumers to cut spending and increase savings [1][9] - The consumer confidence index from the Conference Board dropped significantly, indicating heightened anxiety among consumers regarding the economic outlook [7][8] - A Santander Bank survey revealed that 45% of Americans have increased their emergency savings, with 53% expressing greater concern about inflation compared to earlier in the year [6][9] Group 3 - The trend of "revenge saving" is also reflected in the increased contributions to 401(k) plans, with Fidelity reporting a record high savings rate of 9.5% in Q1 2025 [12] - Nearly half of the participants in a Vanguard study have raised their savings rates, indicating a shift towards more cautious financial behavior [12] - Economic uncertainty, including potential job losses related to government spending cuts, is prompting consumers to accumulate cash for unexpected costs [10][11]

24 June 2025 | 10:51AM EDT USA: Consumer Confidence Well Below Expectations; Inflation Expectations Decline Again BOTTOM LINE: The consumer confidence index decreased in June, well below expectations for an increase. The labor differential declined in June to the lowest level since March 2021, and the survey's measure of short-term inflation expectations declined. US MAP: Consumer confidence -6 (3, -2) KEY NUMBERS: Consumer confidence 93.0 for June vs. GS 100.6, median forecast 99.8, prior revised 98.4 MAIN ...

财经网站Forexlive评美国6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数：市场情绪已从4月至5月的低点反弹，但仍远 低于2024年底的水平。市场对该报告的反应微乎其微。 ...

美国6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值 60.7，预期60.5，前值60.5。 ...

智通财经6月27日电，密歇根大学6月份消费者信心指数报60.7，预期为60.5。 ...

美国6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值、一年期通胀率预期终值将于十分钟后公布。 ...

美国各季度经济增长率美联社 据美联社报道，当地时间6月26日，美国商务部报告称，由于美国总统特朗普的贸易战扰乱商业活动，美国国内生产总值（GDP）在今年一季度环比按年率 计算萎缩0.5%，较该部门前两次公布的估值明显下调。 分析认为，造成经济萎缩的重要原因，是美国企业和家庭赶在关税上涨前大幅增加进口，从而造成国内生产销售减少。美商务部4月初次估值预计第一季度 经济将萎缩0.3%，5月将该数据修正为萎缩0.2%。经济学家们曾预测，商务部的第三次也是最后一次估算值将不会有任何改变。 美商务部数据显示，今年一季度美国GDP出现下滑，扭转了2024年最后一个季度2.4%的增长，标志着该国经济三年来首次出现萎缩。其中，美国进口增长 37.9%，为2020年以来最快增速，拖累GDP下降近4.7个百分点。 同时，美国一季度消费者支出也急剧放缓，仅增长0.5%，低于去年第四季度4%的增速，较美商务部此前预期大幅下调。占美国经济总量约70%的个人消费 支出对一季度GDP的贡献也下调至约0.3个百分点。 衡量美国经济潜在实力的一个GDP分项数据以1.9%的年率增长。这一数字低于2024年第四季度的2.9%，也低于商务部此前预估的 ...

智通财经6月27日电，欧元区6月消费者信心指数为负15.3，预估为负15.3。 ...