Group 1 - International gold prices continue to face downward pressure, with New York gold futures falling below $4000 per ounce again on October 28 [1] - COMEX gold futures are currently at 3966.40 yuan per gram, with a slight decline of 0.04%, and have fluctuated between a high of 3995.70 yuan and a low of 3930.00 yuan [1] - Market analysts suggest that despite long-term optimism for the gold market, short-term price declines may continue [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Senate failed to pass a procedural vote on the 2025 Fiscal Year Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act, resulting in the continuation of the government shutdown [2] - The ongoing government shutdown has significantly impacted consumer confidence, with the U.S. consumer confidence index dropping from a revised 95.6 in September to 94.6 in October [2] - The ADP data company reported an average of approximately 14,250 new jobs added in the U.S. over the four weeks ending October 11, indicating ongoing labor market dynamics [2] Group 3 - From a technical perspective, December gold futures still hold short-term technical advantages, although they have weakened significantly [3] - The next upward price target for bulls is to close above the solid resistance level of $4200, while bears aim to push prices below the solid technical support level of $3900 [3] - Key resistance levels are at $4100 and the overnight high of $4123.80, with support at $4000 [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a second interest rate cut of 25 basis points this year due to weak employment data and a general decline in labor demand across various sectors [1] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for September was not released as scheduled due to the federal government shutdown, contributing to the Fed's decision-making process [1] - The Fed's Beige Book report indicated widespread low labor demand across all regions and industries, reinforcing the need for further rate cuts to support the economy [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index decreased by 1 point in October, falling to 94.6, which is lower than the revised 95.6 in September [2] - The Consumer Expectations Index, reflecting short-term income prospects and the business and employment environment, dropped by 2.9 points to 71.5 [2] - Concerns over employment and the ongoing federal government shutdown are significant factors contributing to the decline in consumer confidence [2]

美国10月消费者信心指数跌至94.6 略低于市场预期 中新社华盛顿10月28日电 (记者 沙晗汀)世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)当地时间28日公布数据 显示，美国10月消费者信心指数跌至94.6，略低于市场预期。 数据显示，10月美国消费者信心指数为94.6，较9月修正数据下降1，较一年前数据下降14.9。具体来 看，基于消费者对当前商业和劳动力市场状况评估的现状指数为129.3，较9月数据上涨1.8。基于消费者 对收入、商业和劳动力市场状况短期展望的预期指数为71.5，较9月数据下降2.9。通常情况下，如果该 指数低于80，则预示着接下来将进入衰退。 数据还显示，10月35岁以下和55岁及以上消费者信心指数出现下降，35岁至54岁消费者信心指数出现上 升。年收入低于7.5万美元消费者信心指数有所下降，年收入在7.5万美元及以上消费者信心指数有所上 升，年收入超过20万美元消费者信心指数增幅最大。 世界大型企业研究会高级经济学家斯蒂芬妮·吉夏尔表示，物价和通胀是消费者10月最关注的议题。消 费者对未来12个月的平均通胀预期为5.9%，高于9月5.8%的数值。此外，众多消费者对关税、政府 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. consumer confidence index dropped from a revised 95.6 in September to 94.6 in October, indicating growing consumer concerns amid the ongoing federal government shutdown [1] Group 1: Consumer Confidence Index - The consumer confidence index's components show a mixed picture, with the assessment of current business and employment conditions rising by 1.8 points to 129.3, while the expectations index fell by 2.9 points to 71.5, significantly below the recession threshold of 80 [1] - The improvement in the assessment index suggests a slight recovery in consumer perceptions of current business conditions and the job market, marking the first improvement in employment market assessment since December 2024 [1] Group 2: Consumer Sentiment Factors - Consumers' written responses to the survey highlighted concerns primarily related to prices and inflation, which remain significant factors influencing their views on the U.S. economy [1] - There was a notable increase in mentions of U.S. politics in consumer feedback, with the ongoing federal government shutdown being a major concern [1]

Core Insights - The ongoing federal government "shutdown" has led to increased consumer concerns, resulting in a decline in the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index from a revised 95.6 in September to 94.6 in October [1] Group 1: Consumer Confidence Index - The Consumer Confidence Index's components show a rise in the assessment of current business and employment conditions by 1.8 points to 129.3 [1] - The consumer expectations index, reflecting short-term income prospects and business conditions, fell by 2.9 points to 71.5, significantly below the recession threshold of 80 [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The improvement in the assessment index indicates a slight recovery in consumer views on current business conditions and the job market, marking the first improvement since December 2024 [1] - All three components of the expectations index weakened, suggesting a pessimistic outlook among consumers regarding future job opportunities and business conditions, along with a decline in optimism about future income [1] Group 3: Consumer Concerns - Consumers' written responses to the survey highlighted concerns about prices and inflation, which remain significant topics affecting their views on the U.S. economy [1] - There was a notable increase in mentions of U.S. politics in consumer feedback, with the ongoing federal government "shutdown" being a primary concern [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. consumer confidence index for October is reported at 94.6, exceeding the expected value of 93.4 [1] Group 1 - The actual consumer confidence index indicates a positive sentiment among consumers, suggesting potential growth in consumer spending [1] - The increase in the consumer confidence index may reflect improved economic conditions or consumer perceptions [1] - This data point could influence market trends and investment strategies in sectors reliant on consumer spending [1]

Core Insights - The Brazilian consumer confidence index (ICC) rose for the second consecutive month in October, driven by improvements in employment and inflation [1] - The ICC increased by 1 point to 88.5, continuing a recovery trend since March of this year [1] - The improvement in consumer sentiment is primarily attributed to a rebound in low-income households' emotions [1] Economic Indicators - The current situation index (ISA) and the expectations index (IE) both increased by 1 point, reaching 83 and 92.8, respectively [1] - The local economic situation evaluation index rose to 95.5, while the economic outlook evaluation index reached 106.9, marking the highest levels since October 2024 [1] Influencing Factors - Strong employment and income performance, along with declining inflation, have alleviated consumer pessimism [1] - However, high credit default rates and the maintained benchmark interest rate limit further recovery in consumer confidence [1] Monetary Policy - The Brazilian central bank has kept the Selic benchmark interest rate at 15% [1] - The central bank's governor, Roberto Campos Neto, indicated that monetary policy is in a phase of maintaining high interest rates to ensure inflation returns to mid-term targets [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. GDP preliminary value for Q3 is expected to show continued moderate expansion, with consumer spending being a key focus [1] - The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for October will reflect changes in consumer confidence following a decrease in inflation [2] - Japan's preliminary GDP for Q3 will be observed to assess whether the economy is recovering from weakness, particularly in exports and consumption [3] Group 2 - The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for September, a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, may influence the pace of interest rate cuts [3] - The EIA's report on crude oil inventory changes will impact short-term oil price dynamics [3] - The U.K. Manufacturing PMI for October will be monitored to evaluate the recovery of the economy in a high-interest rate environment [4] Group 3 - The European Central Bank's meeting minutes will provide insights into the latest assessments of inflation and economic growth [5] - Canada's GDP data for August will be released, with potential implications for short-term fluctuations in the Canadian dollar [6] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and policy statement are anticipated to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, with Powell's speech expected to guide market direction [7] Group 4 - The Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting results will be closely watched for any adjustments to negative interest rate policies and yield curve control frameworks [8] - Australia's Q3 Producer Price Index (PPI) will be analyzed to observe inflation trends and the subsequent policy space for the Reserve Bank of Australia [9] - The final value of the U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI for October will help determine if manufacturing activity is recovering [10] - The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index for October, as a leading indicator, may influence market perceptions of economic prospects [11]

Core Viewpoint - The final consumer confidence index for October from the University of Michigan was revised down from an initial value of 55 to 53.6, indicating a risk of contraction in consumer spending, a critical driver of the U.S. economy [2] Economic Indicators - The persistent weakness in the U.S. job market and the low consumer confidence index reflect significant downward pressure on the U.S. economy [2] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September may lead to further small rate cuts in response to economic conditions [2] Monetary Policy Implications - There are doubts about the effectiveness of gradual rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in alleviating pressures on the real economy, as the Fed's monetary policy often lags behind market conditions [2] - The potential for "black swan" events could exacerbate economic volatility, suggesting that even accelerated rate cuts may not suffice, leading to the possibility of a new round of quantitative easing (QE) and a return of the federal funds rate to zero [2]

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In September 2025, the US CPI increased by 3.0% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, while core CPI also rose by 3.0% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, all below market expectations[2] - Overall inflation shows a marginal rebound, but core inflation is declining, indicating a potential easing impact from tariffs on US inflation[3] - Energy inflation rose significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, while food inflation increased by 3.1%, showing a slight decline from August[4] Group 2: Future Inflation Trends and Federal Reserve Actions - The report suggests that inflation may trend downward in the future, with core inflation expected to remain stable or decrease slightly[5] - The Federal Reserve is likely to continue lowering interest rates by 25 basis points, with a total expected reduction of 75 basis points for 2025, due to ongoing risks in the labor market and low consumer confidence[6] - Consumer confidence index recorded a low of 55 in October, indicating pessimism about future economic conditions[42] Group 3: Key Economic Indicators - The Michigan University inflation expectation remained stable at 4.6%, with a 5-year expectation at 3.7%, suggesting consumers do not anticipate rapid cost transfers to them despite income pressures[46] - The core services inflation, excluding housing, showed a year-on-year decline, reflecting significant differences across various consumption sectors[23] - Risks include potential inflation surprises due to international tensions and unexpected economic downturns in the US[47]