Core Insights - The overall trend in the pig market indicates a continued decline in prices, with a significant drop in live pig prices observed in November, reflecting a supply surplus and weak demand [1][5]. Price Trends - As of mid-November 2025, 30 out of 50 monitored products saw price increases, while 17 experienced declines, with live pig prices reported at 11.6 yuan/kg, down 1.7% from the previous period [1]. - The price of live pigs (external three yuan) fell from 12.05 yuan/kg on November 1 to 11.65 yuan/kg by November 24, marking a 3.3% decrease [1]. Policy and Industry Response - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has proposed measures to strengthen comprehensive capacity regulation in the pig industry, aiming for high-quality development and dynamic supply-demand adjustments [2]. - Analysts suggest that the upcoming southern cured meat season may provide some support for pig prices, but the overall supply-demand imbalance is expected to limit any significant price rebound [2]. Market Dynamics - According to Dongfang Securities, the current low prices for fat and piglets may lead to a market-driven capacity reduction, with historical patterns indicating a likelihood of industry contraction [4]. - The number of breeding sows has decreased significantly, with a reported decline of 90,000 heads in the third quarter and a total below 40 million by the end of October, indicating accelerated capacity reduction [4]. Supply and Demand Outlook - Huatai Futures anticipates that the upcoming months will see increased pressure on pig supply due to concentrated market exits and seasonal peaks in slaughtering, despite ongoing demand growth [4]. - The chief economist at Zheshang Securities notes that the current pig cycle is characterized by shorter cycles and increased volatility, with a supply surplus expected to persist in the near term [5]. - Seasonal demand for cured meats in November and December may provide temporary support for prices, but the overall market remains oversupplied, limiting potential price increases [5].

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货生猪年报 周期磨底 去产能节奏决定上限 生猪 2025 年 11 月 21 日 分析师：覃多贵 从业资格号：F3067313 投资咨询号：Z0014857 电话：021-55007766-6671 邮箱：15580@guosen.com.cn 作者保证报告所采用的数据均来自合 规渠道， 分析逻辑基于本人的职业理 解，通过合理判断并得出结论，力求 客观、公正，结论不受任何第三方的 授意、影响，特此声明。 独立性申明： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 以信为本 点石成金 国信期货研究 Page 2 一、行情回顾 主要结论 2025 年国内生猪处于供应压力逐步兑现的阶段，这种供应压力一方面有前 期能繁母猪存栏增加的滞后影响，另一方面也与行业生产效率提高、PSY 整体水 平上行相关。但由于饲料成本的下降，生猪养殖行业全年大多数时间仍能保持微 利，直接到三季度末，供应压力大幅超过消费的承接能力，才开始进入全面亏损 的阶段。往后来看，根据仔猪出生数据推算到明年二季度，国内生猪供应都处于 增加的格局，对猪市仍将形成较大的压制。而未来供应压力的减轻，还需求行业 去产能兑现。尽管国家有关部 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities emphasizes the importance of identifying and capturing turning points in the agricultural sector in 2026, focusing on core indicators and finding entry points within a relatively reasonable valuation range [1] Group 1: Swine Breeding - The swine breeding sector is expected to benefit from changes in supply and demand, with a continued emphasis on a balanced approach of offense and defense [1] - The investment opportunities in the swine breeding sector arise from changes in production capacity affecting pig price expectations, with a recommendation to focus on major players like Muyuan Foods (002714) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), as well as smaller companies like Tiankang Biological (002100) and Shennong Group (605296) [1] - Despite a generally pessimistic outlook on pig prices based on current data, there is potential for changes within the industry that could lead to investment opportunities [1] Group 2: Pet Food - The pet food sector is characterized by sustained growth and significant market share expansion potential, with export growth serving as a shield for performance and the development of proprietary brands as a spear for future market share increases [2] - The report suggests that companies in the pet food industry should focus on maintaining or exceeding growth expectations for their proprietary brands while leveraging multi-brand operations [2] - Key companies to watch in the pet food sector include Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891), Guibao Pet (301498), and Petty (300673), with additional attention on Yuanfei Pet (001222) [2]

Core Insights - Guangdong Tiannong Group Co., Ltd. has officially submitted its application for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after two previous attempts were terminated within five years [1][2] - The company is known for its "King of Chickens," the Qingyuan chicken, which holds over 59% market share in its segment, but it faces significant challenges including reliance on the pig farming business [4][5] Company Overview - Tiannong Group's revenue structure shows over 60% dependence on pig farming, leading to performance fluctuations tied to both "pig cycles" and "chicken cycles" [4][9] - The company has experienced a dramatic shift in net profit over the past three years, from a peak of 890 million yuan to a loss of 670 million yuan [4][11] - The average selling price of Qingyuan chicken has decreased from 37.7 yuan per chicken in 2022 to 30.7 yuan in the first half of 2025, a decline of over 20% [8] Market Position - Tiannong Group ranks first in the Qingyuan chicken market with a market share of 59.3%, and it has developed a comprehensive supply chain involving over 4,000 poultry farmers [7][9] - The market size for Qingyuan chicken is projected to grow from 1.363 billion yuan in 2020 to 1.788 billion yuan in 2024, with expectations to exceed 3.1 billion yuan by 2029 [7] Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to reach 4.8 billion yuan in 2024, with pig farming revenue increasing from 2.587 billion yuan in 2022 to 3.203 billion yuan in 2024 [9] - Tiannong Group's pig farming gross margin is expected to be 470 yuan per pig in 2024, ranking second among large-scale farming enterprises [10] Governance and Capital Structure - The company exhibits a family governance structure, with the founders controlling approximately 52.28% of voting rights [13] - Tiannong Group has faced challenges in its capital journey, having attempted to list on the A-share market in 2020 and 2022, both of which were terminated [13][15] Debt and Financial Strategy - The company has a high debt ratio, with liabilities reaching approximately 1.334 billion yuan as of August 31, 2025, with 83.13% due within one year [15] - Recent capital operations, including share buybacks and debt management, indicate a strategic move to optimize its capital structure ahead of the IPO [15]

Core Viewpoint - The pig farming industry is facing significant financial pressure due to prolonged low prices, leading to a collective action among listed pig companies to supplement their cash flow by reallocating funds from previously planned projects [1][2][3]. Industry Overview - The main pig futures contract hit a new low of 11,440 yuan/ton, marking a 17.76% decline over the past three months, reflecting a pessimistic market sentiment [1]. - The current supply-demand dynamics in the pig industry remain loose, with no fundamental changes expected, and the anticipated year-end price rebound may not materialize until the second half of 2026 [1][5]. Company Actions - Companies like Tangrenshen and Yisheng shares have announced reallocations of funds from their projects to bolster liquidity, with Tangrenshen repurposing 78.96 million yuan for this purpose [2][3]. - Tangrenshen's financial performance has been adversely affected, reporting a revenue increase of 8.87% to 18.586 billion yuan but a net loss of 365 million yuan, with a debt ratio reaching a historical high of 65.51% [2][3]. Market Conditions - The pig price has been on a downward trend, with the average price dropping to 11.69 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 28.15%, indicating an oversupply in the market [5][6]. - Despite expectations for a seasonal demand increase, the actual market response has been weak, with the anticipated "腌腊行情" (cured meat demand) failing to significantly uplift prices [5][6]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the pig price will continue to fluctuate downward in the short to medium term, with a potential turning point not expected until the second half of 2026 as the industry undergoes necessary capacity adjustments [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Tangrenshen, has decided to terminate the "Dongchong Phase III Pig Breeding Base Construction Project" due to ongoing pressure from declining pig prices, which have fallen to 12.64 yuan/kg, a 27.4% year-on-year decrease, leading to significant financial strain [1][3][8] Financial Performance - Tangrenshen's third-quarter breeding cost reached 13.3 yuan/kg, which is above the current market price, resulting in a loss of 3.05 billion yuan for the quarter [3][6] - The company's asset-liability ratio has risen to 65.51%, indicating increased financial pressure, with a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 0.8 and a current ratio of 0.97 [1][4][5] - The company has reported a cumulative net profit loss of 12.32 billion yuan over the past five years, with three years of profit and two years of loss [6] Project Termination and Fund Allocation - The termination of the "Dongchong Phase III" project was part of a larger fundraising initiative where Tangrenshen raised 1.14 billion yuan in 2022, with 580 million yuan of unused funds redirected to a new project [2][3] - The company plans to adopt a lighter asset operation model for its pig breeding business, focusing on leasing and partnerships [2] Industry Context - The pig farming industry has seen several companies, including Tian Kang Biological and Wens Foodstuffs, halt expansion projects due to increased market competition and declining prices [3][6] - The current pig price cycle has been characterized by a prolonged downturn, with prices dropping significantly since mid-2024, further exacerbating the financial challenges faced by pig farming companies [6][8] Financing Strategy - In response to financial pressures, Tangrenshen is initiating new financing efforts, including the issuance of short-term financing bonds and medium-term notes, aimed at repaying debts and supplementing working capital [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Tian Nong Group, is preparing for an IPO in Hong Kong, leveraging its dominance in the Qingyuan chicken market, while facing challenges due to its significant reliance on the pig farming business and family governance issues [1][2][10]. Group 1: Company Overview - Tian Nong Group specializes in raising Qingyuan chicken, holding over 59% market share in this niche [1][7]. - The company was founded by Zhang Zhengfen and her husband in 2003, focusing on the industrialization of Qingyuan chicken after reviving its breeding stock [3][4]. - The company has developed a comprehensive supply chain involving over 4,000 poultry farmers, transitioning traditional farming into a modern industrial model [7][10]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Tian Nong Group's revenue reached 4.8 billion yuan in 2024, with over 60% derived from pig farming, indicating a dual reliance on both chicken and pig cycles [10][11]. - The company's net profit fluctuated significantly over the past three years, from a peak of 890 million yuan to a loss of 670 million yuan [2][12]. - The average selling price of Qingyuan chicken has decreased by over 20% from 2022 to 2025, impacting profit margins [8][12]. Group 3: Market Position and Challenges - The market for Qingyuan chicken is expected to grow from 1.363 billion yuan in 2020 to 1.788 billion yuan in 2024, with projections to exceed 3.1 billion yuan by 2029 [7]. - The company faces challenges from price volatility in both chicken and pig markets, which directly affects profitability [12][17]. - Tian Nong Group's governance structure is heavily family-oriented, with significant control held by the founding couple and their relatives [13][14]. Group 4: Debt and Capital Structure - The company has a high debt ratio, with liabilities reaching approximately 1.334 billion yuan, of which 83.13% is due within one year [17][18]. - Recent capital maneuvers include share buybacks and restructuring efforts aimed at optimizing the capital structure ahead of the IPO [16][18].

Core Viewpoint - Tian Nong Group, a poultry and pig farming company, is preparing for an IPO in Hong Kong, highlighting its success in revitalizing the Qingyuan chicken breed while facing significant challenges related to its dual reliance on both chicken and pig farming [1][11]. Company Overview - Founded by Zhang Zhengfen and her husband, the company focuses on the industrialization of Qingyuan chicken, achieving a market share of over 59% in this niche [1][8]. - The company has developed a complete breeding system for Qingyuan chicken, emphasizing high-quality, natural farming practices [5][8]. Financial Performance - Tian Nong Group's revenue structure shows over 60% dependence on pig farming, with pig product revenue increasing from 25.87 billion to 32.03 billion from 2022 to 2024 [11][12]. - The company's net profit has fluctuated significantly, from a peak of 8.9 billion in 2022 to a loss of 6.7 billion in 2023, before rebounding in 2024 [12][13]. - Average selling prices for Qingyuan chicken have decreased by over 20% from 2022 to 2025, impacting gross margins which have shown significant volatility [9][12]. Market Position - The market for Qingyuan chicken is expected to grow from 1.363 billion in 2020 to 1.788 billion by 2024, with projections to exceed 3.1 billion by 2029 [8]. - The company has established a comprehensive supply chain involving over 4,000 poultry farmers, enhancing its market position [8][11]. Governance and Management - The company exhibits a strong family governance structure, with the founding couple controlling approximately 52.28% of voting rights [14][17]. - The management team includes several family members, indicating a close-knit operational approach [14]. Capital Market Journey - Tian Nong Group has faced challenges in its previous attempts to list on the A-share market, which adds pressure to its current IPO efforts in Hong Kong [16][17]. - The company has engaged in various capital operations, including share buybacks and restructuring, to optimize its financial position ahead of the IPO [16][17]. Debt and Financial Health - The company has a high debt ratio, with liabilities reaching approximately 1.334 billion, of which 83.13% is due within one year [17]. - The financial strategy includes addressing short-term debt pressures while aiming to improve cash flow stability [17].

Core Viewpoint - Tian Nong Group has officially submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, highlighting its dominance in the Qingyuan chicken market with over 59% market share, while facing challenges due to its significant reliance on the pig farming business and fluctuating profits over the past three years [1][3][10]. Group 1: Company Overview - Tian Nong Group specializes in the breeding and commercialization of Qingyuan chicken, a premium poultry product, and has successfully increased its output to over 32 million chickens annually [1][3]. - The company was founded by Zhang Zhengfen and her husband, who revitalized the Qingyuan chicken breed from a state of genetic decline, establishing a complete breeding system [5][10]. - The average price of Qingyuan chicken has remained significantly higher than that of other chicken types, with prices ranging from 17.6 to 22.3 yuan per kilogram [7][8]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Tian Nong Group's revenue structure shows that over 60% of its income comes from pig farming, making it vulnerable to both chicken and pig market cycles [9][10]. - The company's net profit has fluctuated dramatically, from a peak of 890 million yuan to a loss of 670 million yuan over the past three years [1][11]. - The average selling price of its chicken products has decreased by over 20% from 2022 to 2025, indicating market pressures [8][12]. Group 3: Governance and Capital Structure - The company exhibits a strong family governance structure, with the founders controlling approximately 52.28% of the voting rights [15][18]. - Tian Nong Group has faced challenges in its capital journey, having previously attempted to list on the A-share market before shifting focus to the Hong Kong market [17][18]. - The company has a high debt burden, with over 13.34 billion yuan in outstanding loans, 83.13% of which are due within one year [18].

Core Viewpoint - Tian Nong Group has officially submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, focusing on the production of Qingyuan chicken, which holds over 59% market share in its segment [1][9]. Group 1: Company Overview - Founded by Dr. Zhang Zhengfen and her husband, the company has transformed Qingyuan chicken from a declining breed to a thriving business, with an annual output exceeding 32 million chickens [1][3]. - The company has developed a complete breeding system for Qingyuan chicken, emphasizing natural rearing methods and high-quality feed [5][8]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Tian Nong Group's revenue structure is heavily reliant on pig farming, with over 60% of its income derived from this sector, making it vulnerable to both "pig cycle" and "chicken cycle" fluctuations [2][10]. - The company's net profit has fluctuated significantly over the past three years, ranging from a peak profit of 890 million yuan to a loss of 670 million yuan [2][12]. - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 4.8 billion yuan, with pig farming revenue increasing from 2.587 billion yuan in 2022 to 3.203 billion yuan in 2024 [10][11]. Group 3: Market Position and Product Pricing - Tian Nong Group ranks first in the Qingyuan chicken market with a market share of 59.3%, supported by a robust supply chain involving over 4,000 poultry farmers [9][10]. - The average selling price of Qingyuan chicken has decreased from 37.7 yuan per chicken in 2022 to 30.7 yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a decline of over 20% [9][12]. Group 4: Governance and Capital Structure - The company exhibits a strong family governance structure, with the founders controlling approximately 52.28% of the voting rights [14][16]. - Tian Nong Group has faced challenges in its capital journey, having previously attempted to list on the A-share market before shifting focus to the Hong Kong market [16][17]. - The company has a high debt burden, with a debt-to-asset ratio consistently above 65%, and approximately 83.13% of its outstanding loans due within one year [17].