Group 1: CPI Analysis - In December 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest level since March 2023 with a 0.1 percentage point increase from November [1] - The core CPI rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for four consecutive months [5] - The increase in CPI was primarily driven by rising prices of industrial consumer goods, excluding energy, and a significant rise in food prices, particularly fresh fruits and seafood [4][6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 1.9% year-on-year in December 2025, but the decline was less severe than in November, with a 0.3 percentage point narrowing of the drop [3][7] - Month-on-month, the PPI increased for three consecutive months, indicating a strengthening trend [3] - Factors contributing to the PPI increase include seasonal demand improvements and rising prices in the non-ferrous metals sector, which have been supported by anti-involution measures [7][8] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The prices in the non-ferrous metal mining sector have been rising for 22 consecutive months, driven by both international demand for key metals and domestic growth in high-end manufacturing sectors such as lithium batteries and photovoltaic equipment [9] - The government's policy to stabilize growth in the non-ferrous metal industry aims for an average annual increase of 5% in value-added output from 2025 to 2026 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of pig farming enterprises from passive risk management to active risk management through the establishment of professional futures teams and refined hedging operations in response to ongoing price pressures in the pig market [2][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - In 2025, the pig market faced significant challenges, with average prices significantly lower than in 2023 and 2024, reaching a low of 11 yuan/kg in October, leading to deep industry losses [2][4]. - The average price of lean pigs in 2025 was 13.80 yuan/kg, with a downward trend observed throughout the year, particularly after mid-September when prices fell below the industry cost line [4]. - The overall pig farming industry has experienced four complete cycles of the "pig cycle" since 2006, with the current phase being the most painful "bottoming" stage of the fifth cycle [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - In 2025, the total pig output is expected to reach 747 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, with pork production exceeding 60 million tons for the first time [5]. - The average PSY (pigs weaned per sow per year) increased from 21 in 2024 to 26 in 2025, enhancing the supply capacity by 23.8% under the same breeding stock [5]. - Demand for pork is declining due to macroeconomic factors affecting consumer willingness, with traditional peak seasons seeing a 10%-15% year-on-year decrease in consumption [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance of Companies - Leading companies like Muyuan Foods reported a total sales volume of 77.981 million pigs in 2025, an increase of 6.379 million heads from 2024, but total sales revenue decreased by approximately 3.4 billion yuan due to lower average selling prices [6]. - The cost of pig farming is currently estimated to be between 12 and 13 yuan/kg, with top companies achieving lower costs through management advantages [4]. Group 4: Risk Management Strategies - Companies are increasingly adopting futures hedging as a critical strategy for risk management, moving away from traditional sales models that do not guarantee stable profits [8][9]. - Futures hedging has become a normalized part of operations, focusing on locking in profits rather than speculative trading [9][11]. - The implementation of futures contracts allows companies to stabilize their profits and manage risks effectively, as demonstrated by various companies' experiences in the market [10][12].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese pig market faced significant challenges in 2025, characterized by a prolonged downturn in prices, deepening losses for pig farming enterprises, and a shift towards proactive risk management strategies in response to ongoing supply-demand imbalances and regulatory pressures [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - In 2025, the average price of lean pigs was 13.80 yuan/kg, with prices dropping significantly, reaching as low as 11 yuan/kg in October, marking a period of deep losses for the industry [2][4]. - The overall pig output in 2025 was projected at 747 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, with pork production exceeding 60 million tons for the first time [3]. - The average PSY (pigs weaned per sow per year) increased from 21 in 2024 to 26 in 2025, enhancing the supply capacity and exacerbating the supply pressure [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Leading company Muyuan Foods sold 77.981 million pigs in 2025, an increase of 6.379 million from 2024, but its total sales revenue fell to 132.811 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 3.4 billion yuan from the previous year due to lower sales prices [4]. - By December 2025, self-breeding and external purchasing models faced significant losses, with average losses of 62 yuan per head for self-breeding and 210 yuan per head for purchased piglets [2]. Group 3: Risk Management Strategies - Companies are increasingly adopting proactive risk management strategies, including forming specialized futures teams and implementing detailed hedging operations to mitigate the impacts of price volatility [1][5]. - Futures hedging has become a critical component of business operations, allowing companies to lock in profits and stabilize earnings despite low market prices [6][8]. - The participation of over 3,000 industry clients in pig futures trading indicates a growing trend towards using futures as a risk management tool, with 24 out of 32 major pig enterprises engaging in futures transactions [7][8].

Core Insights - The volatility of the "pig cycle" has become increasingly unpredictable, prompting pig farming companies to adopt a multifaceted approach to ensure profitability, including extending the industrial chain, enhancing digital management, and utilizing pig futures as a financial tool [1][2] Group 1: Industry Overview - The pig price has experienced significant downward pressure due to supply and demand imbalances, with the average price dropping below 11 yuan/kg in mid-October 2025, and the main pig futures contracts seeing a cumulative decline of 15.31% in the third and fourth quarters [2] - The number of live pigs in China reached 43.68 million by the end of the third quarter of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, while the output volume for the first three quarters was 52.99 million, up 1.8% year-on-year [2] - The pig industry has faced multiple challenges over the past five years, including the recovery of production capacity post-African swine fever, high feed costs, and changing consumer demand, leading to a more extended downward cycle and shorter upward cycles [2] Group 2: Financial Tools and Risk Management - The introduction of pig futures has allowed companies to hedge against price volatility, with firms able to lock in future sales prices by selling futures contracts in advance [4][5] - Companies like DeKang Group have successfully utilized futures to offset losses in the spot market, achieving over 1,000 yuan profit per head through effective hedging strategies [5] - The futures market has evolved to become a critical tool for risk management, with companies increasingly relying on futures prices to guide production and sales decisions [5][9] Group 3: Operational Strategies - Companies are focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements through various strategies, including optimizing feed formulas, breeding technologies, and digital management [3][4] - The integration of the supply chain, from feed production to meat sales, has been emphasized to ensure stable supply and controllable costs, enhancing profitability during price fluctuations [3] - Collaboration between different departments within companies is essential for effective hedging, as misalignment can hinder the execution of risk management strategies [6][7] Group 4: Market Development and Future Expectations - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has made several adjustments to the pig futures contract rules to better align with market needs, including changes to delivery quality standards and the establishment of additional delivery warehouses [8][9] - The trading volume of pig futures has significantly increased, with total transactions reaching 17.993 million contracts in 2025, indicating a growing acceptance and utilization of these financial instruments within the industry [9] - The industry anticipates further expansion of the pig futures market to better meet the risk management needs of upstream and downstream enterprises [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean No.1: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ★★★ [1] - Live Pigs: ★★★ [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - Market sentiment has ebbed, and commodities with large previous gains face profit - taking pressure. Different agricultural products have different market trends and influencing factors. Attention should be paid to policy, weather, export, and other aspects [2][3][4] Summary by Related Categories Bean No.1 - Bean No.1 futures main contract shows an adjustment trend with a reduction in positions. The domestic soybean spot price remains strong. The South American new - season soybean has a high - yield expectation, and short - term attention should be paid to policies and market guidance [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The USDA January report predicts the US 2025/26 soybean ending stocks and inventory as of December 1, 2025. Reuters predicts a slight increase in Brazilian and Argentine soybean production. South American weather is favorable, and the probability of ENSO neutral in the first quarter is 68%. Dalian soybean meal rebounds with US soybeans. Attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Market sentiment has ebbed, and soybean oil and palm oil show a trend of rising and then falling. Indonesia may raise palm oil export taxes, and the Malaysian palm oil market may continue to accumulate inventory. The supply - side risk of overseas soybeans is low, and the inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil continues, with a weak supply - demand situation [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed - related futures decline significantly today. The market has high expectations for the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China. If Canada changes its tariff policies on Chinese products, the export of Canadian rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil to China may resume. The domestic rapeseed - related futures are expected to be in a weak and volatile trend [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures continue to increase positions and rise. Some Northeast deep - processing enterprises slightly raise the purchase price. The overall inventory of ports, traders, and downstream is still low. The spot price of some ports is stable or slightly weak. The number of remaining vehicles at corn deep - processing enterprises in the morning continues to decrease. The recent auction of China Grain Reserves Corporation's corn spot has a high transaction rate and premium. The short - term trend is wide - range volatility [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures continue to fluctuate. Different data sources show different trends in the number of sows and newborn piglets. The fat - to - lean price difference is high, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens is low. There is a large supply pressure before the Spring Festival, and the upward rebound space of the futures is limited. In the long - term, the pig price is likely to have a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - The near - month egg futures contract strengthens again, showing a near - weak and far - strong pattern compared with yesterday. The spot price is stable or slightly strong. The monthly year - on - year decline in chick replenishment from September to December exceeds 10%, and the egg - laying hen inventory is expected to continue to decline in the first half of 2026. It is recommended to go long on the first - half - year 2026 futures contracts at low prices. The second - half - year contracts may have different trends [9]

| VV V SDIC FUTURES | | 2026年01月07日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆一 | なな女 | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ななな | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | ななな | | | 菜粕 | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | | | 玉米 | ☆☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | | | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猎 | ななな | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 宏观流动性偏好的背景下,大宗商品贵金属有色金属等品种表现更为强势,后续关注对农产品的影响力度。国 产大豆近期基本面偏强的背景下,也受到宏观的提振,近期的大豆竞价拍卖表现出来了高溢价和高成交率。国 产大豆现货端收购价格也出现上调， ...

卓创资讯（301299）生猪行业分析师邹莹吉向《证券日报》记者表示："2025年猪价呈震荡下滑态势， 年内产能释放推高出栏量，而需求增幅有限，难以形成有效支撑。展望2026年，生猪供应仍较充裕，需 求变动相对被动，预计猪价前低后高，第二季度有望出现重要转折点。" 在猪价仍然波动的背景下，生猪养殖企业持续推进降成本工作和对产能的灵活调整。新希望相关负责人 在与投资者互动时表示，该公司在2025年响应国家去产能政策号召，主动调整了针对闲置场线的复产计 划，其在2025年12月底的能繁母猪存栏数已经降至75万头以下。进入2026年，在产能规模上，该公司继 续积极响应国家政策指引，到2026年1月底之前都会逐步调减能繁母猪存栏规模，2026年的出栏量也会 有一定程度的调减。 1月7日，新希望（000876）六和股份有限公司（以下简称"新希望"）披露2025年12月份生猪销售情况简 报。公司在2025年12月份实现生猪销量180.89万头，同比、环比均实现增长，生猪销售收入为21.51亿 元，环比增长18.71%，同比减少10.75%，当月的商品猪销售均价为11.28元/公斤，环比、同比均有所减 少。 数据显示，新希望 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the supply - side pressure of the pig market will gradually ease as the reduction effect of the breeding sow inventory becomes apparent, and the demand side is expected to improve slightly. The pig price is predicted to show a trend of "low at the beginning and high at the end", and the annual average price will significantly increase compared to 2025 [4][5]. - The pig market will enter an upward cycle in 2026, with the inflection point likely to appear in the second and third quarters, and the market will achieve a substantial re - balance of supply and demand [41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Review of the Pig Market Trend in 2025 - The pig market in 2025 featured "high - pressure supply, oscillating price decline, deep industry losses, and accelerated capacity reduction". The price showed a three - stage trend: a mild decline from January to June, an accelerated decline from July to September, and a bottom - seeking at a low level from October to December. The annual average price dropped by 25.74% compared to 2024 [11][13]. - There was significant regional differentiation in the pig market in 2025, with the southern sales areas showing weak demand and the northern production areas being relatively resistant to price drops. The core reasons included the economic downturn in the south, increased scale of northern production areas, and sporadic epidemics [15]. Chapter 2: Analysis of the Pig Supply - Demand Situation in 2025/26 Supply Side - In 2025, the pig supply remained high, with the annual output in the first three quarters reaching 530 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 1.85%. The inventory of breeding sows was above the reasonable level until October, when the capacity reduction accelerated. The main reasons for the high inventory of breeding sows were the high pig price in 2024, the scale - expansion inertia of leading enterprises, and the lack of motivation for small and medium - sized enterprises to reduce capacity [18][19]. - There was significant cost differentiation in the industry in 2025. Leading enterprises had a cost advantage, with some having a breeding cost as low as 11.3 yuan/kg in October, while small and medium - sized enterprises and scattered farmers faced large losses due to high costs [23]. - The industry's concentration increased in 2025, with leading enterprises expanding their output and small and medium - sized enterprises accelerating their exit. It is expected that the proportion of the top 20 enterprises' output will exceed 35% in 2026 [25][26]. Demand Side - The demand for pigs in 2025 was weak, with the traditional peak season having little effect. The main reasons were the decline in residents' consumption ability due to the economic downturn, the low price of substitutes, and the change in consumption habits. The national pork consumption was expected to decrease by 2% year - on - year [28][30]. Policy Side - In 2025, the "anti - involution" policy was implemented to guide rational production, stabilize the inventory of breeding sows at 39 million heads, and optimize the capacity structure. The policy was implemented in four stages, effectively guiding market expectations, accelerating capacity reduction, and promoting industry structure optimization [32][35]. Other Influencing Factors - In 2025, pig diseases were sporadically distributed, which had a certain impact on local supply and prices [38]. Pig Cycle Inflection Point - The pig market will enter an upward cycle in 2026, with the core logic being the gradual manifestation of supply - side contraction and the marginal improvement of demand. The inventory of breeding sows will stabilize in a reasonable range, promoting the transition from "capacity reduction" to "capacity stabilization" [41]. Chapter 3: Outlook for the Pig Market in 2026 - In the first quarter of 2026, the pig price will be in a low - level oscillation. The supply pressure will still exist, but there will be seasonal demand support. It is expected that the average ex - factory price of national outer three - yuan pigs will rise to 12 - 12.5 yuan/kg before the Spring Festival and fall back to 11.5 - 12 yuan/kg after the Spring Festival [44]. - In the second and third quarters of 2026, the inflection point will appear, and the price will rise. The supply will contract, the demand will improve, and the pig price is expected to break through the cost line in the second - quarter end and reach 14 - 15 yuan/kg in the third - quarter end [46]. - In the fourth quarter of 2026, the price will rise steadily and oscillate at a high level. The supply will continue to contract, and the demand will be strong during the peak season. It is expected that the pig price will reach 15 - 16 yuan/kg, and the self - breeding and self - raising profit per head will reach 200 - 300 yuan [47][48].

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 05 日 PPI呈现"上半年磨底、三季度分化、10-11月温和回升"的修复路 径。8 月是"反内卷"政策落地之后，PPI 的关键分水岭。分行业来看，绝 大多数高权重行业均陷入负值区间，仅有色金属链条形成唯一的正向支 撑。究其原因，内需不足与"内卷式"竞争形成"双重压制"，PPI 的下行压 力主要源于以下两类核心行业：第一类是高权重的中游制造行业，主要 受"内卷"竞争拖累。第二类是上游资源与原材料行业，受地产基建需求 疲软与国际油价回落的共振拖累。 ► 2026 年 CPI 展望：猪周期有望企稳，通胀中枢温和抬升 在 2026 年基期轮换中，猪肉权重有望上升，金银珠宝权重或下 降。回顾 2016 年与 2020 年两次基期轮换，均呈现"食品降、服务升"的 特征，主要遵循"消费升级"主线。2026 年权重调整逻辑或发生逆转：其 一，地产供需格局重塑，居住项权重面临下调（预计-3.0pct）。其二， 疫后修复弹性释放，服务类消费权重显著抬升（预计文娱+2.2pct，交 通+1.4pct）。其三，恩格尔系数回归下行通道，食品烟酒权重延续调降 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic pig market in 2025 is experiencing significant adjustments due to abundant supply and weak demand, leading to a decline in average prices and creating challenges for producers [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average price of pigs in 2025 is approximately 13.80 yuan/kg, significantly lower than in 2024, with prices fluctuating from around 16 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to below 11 yuan/kg by late October [2]. - The supply of pigs is robust, driven by a high number of breeding sows and increased production efficiency, resulting in actual pork supply exceeding market expectations [2][5]. - Demand for pork is weak, with traditional consumption peaks failing to stimulate demand, leading to a situation where price increases do not correspond with demand growth [2][6]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The pig futures market reflects expectations of price declines, with significant fluctuations influenced by supply and demand dynamics [3][7]. - Analysts predict that while supply pressures may persist in the first half of 2026, there could be marginal improvements in the second half due to potential reductions in breeding sow numbers and seasonal demand increases [6][7]. - The average price for pigs in 2026 is expected to range between 12 to 13 yuan/kg, with a potential for a price recovery later in the year [7]. Cost Management and Industry Restructuring - In response to declining prices, pig farming companies are focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with leading firms achieving significant reductions in production costs [5][8]. - The cost of raising pigs for major companies has decreased, with examples such as Muyuan Foods reducing costs from approximately 13 yuan/kg to 11.3 yuan/kg [5]. - The industry is witnessing a shift towards larger, more efficient operations, with smaller producers facing increasing pressure and potential exit from the market [5][8]. Risk Management Strategies - Producers are encouraged to adopt risk management tools such as futures and derivatives to mitigate price volatility and stabilize operations [9]. - The trading volume of pig futures in 2025 reached 17.99 million contracts, indicating increased market liquidity and the growing importance of futures in risk management for producers [9].