投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-10-09 ⻓假期间市场平稳，节后关注政策预期 ⻓假期间钢材、钢坯价格维稳为主，铁矿掉期及现货价格⼩幅上涨0. 3-1.3%⽔平，焦炭⾸轮提涨落地，⽽焦煤、合⾦以及玻璃纯碱价格 维稳，整体板块品种价格变动有限。从10⽉上旬⾏业需求表现来 看，依然亮点不⾜，叠加海外关税扰动频发，将限制节后板块品种价 格的上⾏⾼度，同时⾼铁⽔继续⽀撑炉料需求及价格，进⽽稳固钢材 成本。 长假期间钢材、钢坯价格维稳为主，铁矿掉期及现货价格小幅上涨0. 3-1.3%水平，焦炭首轮提涨落地，而焦煤、合金以及玻璃纯碱价格维 稳，整体板块品种价格变动有限。从10月上旬行业需求表现来看，依 然亮点不足，叠加海外关税扰动频发，将限制节后板块品种价格的上 行高度，同时高铁水继续支撑炉料需求及价格，进而稳固钢材成本。 1、铁元素方面，随着三季度结束，部分矿山季末冲量暂告段落、海 外矿山发运环比小幅减量，而国内台风扰动下降，港口到港量环比增 加、符合预期，高铁水下刚需仍有支撑，假期消耗库存为主，部分钢 厂节后有补库计划，整体库存压力不突出。四季度重要会议以及宏 ...

Core Viewpoint - The impact of production restrictions in Tangshan and Inner Mongolia on the black metal sector has not yet manifested, while the favorable conditions from the US interest rate cut are maintaining high prices in the sector [1] Group 1: Black Metal Sector - Current production restrictions in Tangshan and Inner Mongolia have not yet affected the supply-demand structure of black metal products [1] - The US interest rate cut, being the first of the year, aligns with expectations and sets a positive tone for upcoming domestic meetings, suggesting a potential upward trend in the black construction materials sector [1] - Iron ore fundamentals remain healthy, with production recovering and low inventory levels, although demand for rebar during peak season is yet to be validated, limiting the upward price potential for iron ore [1] Group 2: Steel and Raw Materials - The scrap steel market shows no significant contradictions in fundamentals and is expected to follow the trends of finished products, indicating short-term price fluctuations [1] - Coking coal prices are stabilizing due to cost support, with potential production restrictions in Tangshan's coking steel enterprises, leading to expected short-term price fluctuations [1] - The coal production review is becoming stricter, but supply changes are limited, with downstream restocking beginning and a positive macro sentiment, suggesting a strong short-term price outlook [1] Group 3: Alloy and Glass Markets - The manganese-silicon market is supported by peak season expectations, but long-term supply-demand outlook appears pessimistic, indicating potential downward pressure on prices [1] - The silicon iron market has limited downward space, but the supply-demand balance is expected to loosen in the long term, leading to price pressures [1] - The glass market is experiencing weak demand, but seasonal and policy expectations may lead to fluctuations, with a need for market-driven capacity reduction in the long term [1] Group 4: Overall Market Sentiment - The overall market sentiment is influenced by "anti-involution" dynamics, with the US interest rate cut fostering positive expectations for domestic meetings, supporting sector prices [1] - Inventory replenishment before the end of the month is expected to support raw material prices, with cost support for steel prices, indicating a strong overall market despite sector differentiation [1]