文/ 中欧国际工商学院经济学与金融学教授、中欧陆家嘴国际金融研究院高级学 术顾问 盛松成 稳增长政策应重视收入分配结构与促消费、稳增长的关系。在已有研究的基础 上，分析宏观收入分配结构对经济增长的影响，并针对我国居民可支配收入占 比低、再分配调节不够合理、民生领域支出有待增加等实际情况，从增加居民 部门可支配收入、提高边际消费倾向、引导需求结构向消费倾斜等方面，提出 一系列政策建议。 2024年我国顺利实现经济社会发展预期目标，全年GDP同比增长5.0%，其中四季度增长5.4%，为年内最高增速，成绩来之不易。但也要看到，很多积极 变化只是初步的，仍须夯实经济回升向好的基础。随着外部环境不确定性加大，内需重要性将更加突出，尤其是消费将在今年经济增长中扮演更重要的角 色。从2024年底召开的中央经济工作会议看，政策着力点也将更多转向惠民生、促消费。 由于居民和政府两大部门在收入分配中的份额及其消费支出在很大程度上直接决定了一个经济体的消费发展水平，完善再分配机制，可能是激发消费内生 动力、促进经济增长的一把"钥匙"。"再分配"是指政府或公共部门通过税收、社会保障、财政转移支付等政策工具，对初次分配（往往是由市场机 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the need for targeted redistribution policies to boost consumption and promote economic growth, especially in the context of increasing external uncertainties [1][2] - It highlights that improving the redistribution mechanism could be key to stimulating internal consumption and economic growth, as the current income distribution structure is inadequate [1][3] - The article points out that the disposable income of residents in China is significantly lower compared to major economies like Japan, Germany, and the United States, indicating a need for better redistribution adjustments [3][4] Group 2 - The article suggests that policies should balance short-term and long-term goals, combining growth stabilization with reform promotion to enhance the social welfare system and shift economic demand towards consumption, particularly in services [2][16] - It recommends increasing transfer payments to households and optimizing government spending structures to improve efficiency and stimulate market supply and investment [2][17] - The article discusses the importance of tax reforms that align with economic structural adjustments to address constraints on high-quality economic development and guide consumption through tax policies [2][18] Group 3 - The article notes that the growth rate of urban residents' disposable income has generally lagged behind GDP growth, particularly in urban areas, indicating a need for policy intervention [4][11] - It highlights that social security spending in China is relatively low, accounting for only 3.1% of GDP, suggesting significant room for improvement in public spending on social welfare [4][20] - The article emphasizes the potential of government investment in social services to stimulate market demand and improve living standards, particularly in areas like elderly care and childcare [17][19] Group 4 - The article discusses the potential for issuing additional government bonds to finance consumption-oriented policies, indicating that there is still room for fiscal expansion [20][22] - It suggests that the government should balance funding between consumption and investment to ensure sustainable economic growth, especially in light of external uncertainties [23] - The article concludes that enhancing domestic consumption is crucial for stabilizing foreign investment and fostering high-quality development in the consumer market [23]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the disparity between tax revenue growth and nominal GDP growth, highlighting that in 2024, tax revenue growth is expected to lag behind nominal GDP growth by 7.6 percentage points, which poses a constraint on fiscal expansion. The analysis aims to explore whether tax growth can reverse this trend under a more proactive fiscal stance in 2025 [1]. Group 1: Tax Revenue and GDP Growth Patterns - Historical data shows a non-symmetrical fluctuation characteristic between tax revenue growth and nominal GDP growth, with a tax elasticity coefficient of approximately 2, meaning tax revenue growth typically fluctuates around zero when GDP growth is at a 5% baseline [2][7]. - The primary source of tax revenue elasticity is the income tax mechanism, where corporate profits fluctuate more than revenue, and personal income tax features a progressive rate that causes tax growth to exceed income growth [8]. - The decline in tax revenue in 2024 is primarily attributed to decreases in domestic value-added tax, export tax rebates, deed tax, and land value-added tax, with a total decline of 616.4 billion yuan, or 3.4% year-on-year [9][10]. Group 2: Industry Tax Burden Disparities - The concentration of tax revenue is significantly higher than that of GDP, with the top five industries contributing 77.4% of tax revenue compared to 58.8% of GDP [13]. - High tax burden industries include real estate, finance, and leasing services, with tax-to-value-added ratios exceeding 20%, while low tax burden industries are primarily in agriculture, education, and health [14]. - The tax revenue of the manufacturing and wholesale retail sectors is primarily influenced by fluctuations in the Producer Price Index (PPI), while the real estate sector's tax revenue is closely linked to land acquisition and property sales cycles [15][16]. Group 3: Tax Revenue Trends for 2025 - Tax revenue is expected to recover to 2023 levels, with a projected average growth rate of 3.9% across 21 provinces, indicating a potential return to approximately 18 trillion yuan in total tax revenue [19][20]. - The anticipated recovery in tax revenue is supported by a predicted slight improvement in PPI and manageable declines in credit growth, which are expected to stabilize tax income [18]. - Tax reform is seen as a critical opportunity, with the need to address the declining share of tax revenue in GDP and the necessity for adjustments in the central-local fiscal relationship, particularly in light of pressures from the real estate sector [20].