Group 1 - Canada's trade deficit with the world surged from 2.3 billion CAD in March to approximately 7.1 billion CAD in April, marking the largest deficit on record [1] - Total goods and services trade deficit reached about 7.5 billion CAD in April [1] - Canadian goods exports fell to approximately 60.4 billion CAD in April, representing a 10.8% month-over-month decline, the largest drop in five years [1] Group 2 - Major declines in goods exports were observed in motor vehicles and parts, consumer goods, and energy products, with motor vehicle exports decreasing by 17.4% and passenger car and light truck exports dropping by 22.9% [1] - Consumer goods exports fell by 15.4% to 7 billion CAD, the lowest level since December 2023 [1] - Energy product exports have declined for the third consecutive month due to decreased demand amid economic uncertainty [1] Group 3 - In April, Canada's total goods imports decreased by 3.5% to approximately 67.6 billion CAD, with significant declines in motor vehicles and parts, industrial machinery, and consumer goods [1] - However, imports of unrefined gold, silver, and platinum group metals saw a substantial increase [1] Group 4 - Exports to the U.S. decreased by 15.7% in April, marking the third consecutive month of decline, while imports from the U.S. also fell by 10.8% [2] - The trade surplus with the U.S. narrowed to 3.6 billion CAD, the smallest surplus since December 2020 [2] - Exports to countries outside the U.S. increased by 2.9%, with the largest growth seen in exports to China, the UK, Algeria, and Brazil [2] Group 5 - Imports from countries outside the U.S. rose by 8.3% to a record 29 billion CAD, with total goods trade with non-U.S. countries reaching 47.3 billion CAD, also a monthly historical high [2] - The international services trade deficit narrowed from 500 million CAD in March to approximately 300 million CAD in April, with both service imports and exports declining slightly [2]

物价方面，4月下旬以来物价略有上涨。各联邦储备区内对成本和物价今后将以更快速度上涨的预期广 泛存在。一些联邦储备区预计将出现显著或实质性成本增加。所有联邦储备区均报告，关税上调在给成 本和物价带来上涨压力。 根据美国"联邦储备法"，美国全国划分为12个联邦储备区，每区设立一家联邦储备银行。该报告根据12 家联邦储备银行的最新调查结果编制而成，也称"褐皮书"。 报告显示，自4月下旬以来，美国经济活动整体出现小幅下降，半数联邦储备区经济活动出现轻微或温 和下降。所有联邦储备区经济和政策不确定性均处于高位，导致企业和家庭决策变得迟疑和谨慎。制造 业活动轻度下降。消费者支出情况混杂不一，大多数联邦储备区出现小幅下降或没有变化，但一些联邦 储备区对预计受关税影响物品的支出增加。 报告说，整体而言，前景展望依然为轻度悲观和不确定，与前一次报告相比相对没有变化。 就业方面，大多联邦储备区就业状况与此前相比变化不大，但所有联邦储备区劳动力需求均有所下降， 体现在工作时间和加班减少、招聘暂停和计划裁员等。 新华社纽约6月4日电（记者刘亚南）美国联邦储备委员会4日发布的全国经济形势调查报告显示，美国 经济和政策的不确定性处于高位 ...

美联储卡什卡利：由于经济面临不确定性，美联储必须静观其变。 ...

美联储卡什卡利：经济面临严峻的不确定性。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that high levels of economic and policy uncertainty are negatively impacting businesses and households, with tariff increases leading to rising costs and prices [1][2] - Economic activity has shown a slight decline since late April, with half of the districts reporting mild or moderate decreases in economic activity [1][2] - Consumer spending is mixed, with most districts experiencing slight declines or no change, although some districts have seen increased spending on items expected to be affected by tariffs [1][2] Group 2 - The overall economic outlook remains slightly pessimistic and uncertain, unchanged from the previous report [2] - Employment levels have seen minimal changes, with most districts reporting stable employment conditions, but there are widespread discussions about hiring delays due to uncertainty [2] - Price levels have experienced moderate increases since late April, with widespread expectations of faster future price increases due to rising costs, particularly from tariff hikes [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that half of the regions reported slight to moderate economic decline, while three regions reported no change and three regions reported slight growth [1] - All regions noted high levels of economic and policy uncertainty, leading to hesitancy and cautious attitudes among businesses and households in decision-making [1] - Manufacturing activity showed a slight decline, and consumer spending reports were mixed, with most regions indicating a slight decrease or no change in spending; however, some regions reported an increase in spending on goods affected by tariffs [1] Group 2 - Residential real estate sales showed little change, with most regions reporting that new home construction activity was flat or slowing [1] - Reports on bank loan demand and capital expenditure plans varied across regions [1] - Port activity was active, but other regions reported mixed results in transportation and warehousing activities [1]

Economic Activity - Economic activity has slightly declined since the last report, with half of the Federal Reserve districts reporting a moderate decline [1] - Three Federal Reserve districts reported no change, while three reported slight growth [1] Uncertainty and Consumer Behavior - All Federal Reserve districts reported an increase in economic and policy uncertainty, leading to hesitancy in decision-making among businesses and households [1] - Consumer spending reports were mixed, with most districts indicating slight declines or no change, although some reported increased spending on items affected by tariffs [1] Manufacturing and Real Estate - Manufacturing activity has seen a slight decline [1] - Residential real estate sales remained nearly unchanged, with most districts reporting stable or slowing new home construction activity [1] Banking and Transportation - Reports on bank loan demand and capital expenditure plans were mixed [1] - Port activity was strong, while transportation and warehousing activities reported mixed results across different regions [1] Overall Outlook - The overall economic outlook remains slightly pessimistic and uncertain, with no change compared to the last report [1] - Some districts indicated a worsening outlook, while others reported improvements [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Latin American smartphone market experienced a 4% year-on-year decline in Q1 2025, ending six consecutive quarters of growth, with total shipments reaching 33.7 million units [1][8]. Market Performance - Samsung led the market with 11.9 million units shipped, a 7% increase year-on-year, driven by strong demand for entry-level models A06 and A16 [1][8]. - Xiaomi ranked second with 5.9 million units, a 10% increase, supported by the popularity of the Redmi 14C 4G and Note 14 series [1][8]. - Motorola fell to third place with 5.2 million units, a 13% decline, due to its reliance on low-end products like G15 and G05 [1][8]. - Honor's strong performance with the X series led to a 2% increase in shipments to 2.6 million units, securing the fourth position [1][8]. - Transsion ranked fifth with 2.1 million units, experiencing a significant 38% decline, marking its first drop in the region [1][8]. Market Trends - The smartphone market in Latin America showed a clear polarization, with growth concentrated in entry-level and high-end segments, while the mid-range market, which accounts for 78% of total shipments, remains the primary battleground [2][7]. - Economic uncertainty, particularly concerns over tariff increases, has severely impacted the market, leading manufacturers to tighten aggressive sales strategies and retailers to reduce inventory [2][7]. - The Brazilian market was the only one among the top five to see growth, with a 3% increase in shipments to 9.5 million units, driven by increased investments from Chinese brands like Honor, Xiaomi, and realme [4][5]. Future Outlook - Canalys predicts a slight decline of 1% in the Latin American smartphone market for 2025, influenced by global economic uncertainties and potential inflation [7]. - Manufacturers are expected to focus on maintaining lean and flexible inventory management, optimizing product portfolios, and enhancing consumer experience to remain competitive in a redefined growth environment [7].

道明证券加拿大及全球利率策略主管Andrew Kelvin表示："我认为加拿大央行在今年剩余时间里难以确 定全球贸易形势的发展，但加拿大国内经济已经足够有韧性，加拿大央行有能力等到7月再行动。" 特朗普对包括钢铁、铝、汽车以及不符合北美贸易协定的产品在内的多种加拿大商品征收关税，损害了 劳动力市场，削弱了企业和消费者的信心。但加拿大核心通胀正在上升，第一季度经济表现超出预期， 部分原因是企业赶在关税生效前将更多商品运往美国。 加拿大央行可能不会提供太多前瞻性指引，但随着关税带来的冲击加剧，经济学家和市场预计该行今年 晚些时候将进一步降息。鉴于未来经济可能受损，决策者维持鸽派基调的可能性有所增加。 智通财经APP获悉，加拿大央行将于北京时间周三21:45公布利率决议。市场预计加拿大央行将维持隔 夜利率在2.75%不变，这将是连续第二次暂停降息，因为加拿大央行官员们正在等待美国总统唐纳德·特 朗普的贸易战最终将如何影响经济的更明确信号。 加拿大央行官员们可能会重申，如果经济数据恶化，或者如果他们认为有足够的信息来了解贸易争端将 如何发展，他们将迅速采取行动。但就目前而言，缺乏明确的信息可能会迫使他们按兵不动。 加 ...

美国4月JOLTS职位空缺意外增加至739.1万人，预期会从修正之后的720万个下降至710万人。美国4月 份职位空缺数量意外增加，且涨幅较大，招聘活动也出现回暖，表明尽管经济不确定性加剧，但对劳动 力的需求依然强劲。职位空缺数量的增加主要由私营部门行业推动，例如专业和商业服务以及医疗保健 和社会援助。尽管州和地方教育导致政府部门职位空缺总体减少，但联邦政府部门的职位空缺有所增 加。职位空缺数量的增加，加上稳定的招聘和低失业率，支持了美联储关于就业市场良好的说法。 ...