Core Insights - The current excessive issuance of U.S. government bonds is impacting the global financial landscape, highlighting the advantages of gold as a credit asset, with gold prices nearing $3,800 per ounce [1] - The evolution of gold prices and its future trajectory are critical topics of discussion, as presented by Professor Sheng Songcheng at the "2025 Global Asset Management Center Evaluation Index Release and CLF50 Autumn Conference" [1] Group 1: Historical Context of Gold - Gold has historically been recognized for its unique attributes, including beauty, durability, and scarcity, which have established its significant value in the monetary system [4] - The transition from a gold-backed currency system to fiat currency has occurred in two key phases: the classical gold standard and the Bretton Woods system, which linked currencies to gold at a fixed rate [5][7] - The collapse of the Bretton Woods system marked the shift to a floating exchange rate system, where gold prices are determined by market supply and demand [5] Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - Gold's monetary attributes are weakening due to three evolving characteristics: the expansion of global money supply, increasing demand in various industries, and enhanced liquidity as a financial asset through instruments like ETFs [7] - Global gold investment demand rose from 991 tons in 2021 to 1,182 tons in 2024, with gold ETFs showing a significant recovery in demand [7][8] - Central banks, particularly in developing countries, are increasing their gold reserves, with China's reserves growing from approximately 64 million ounces in 2022 to about 74 million ounces currently [10] Group 3: Factors Driving Gold Prices - Geopolitical risks are enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, with historical instances showing that military conflicts often lead to increased inflation and higher gold prices [11][15] - The inverse relationship between the U.S. dollar index and gold prices is evident, with the dollar index declining from 108.6 in January to 98.2 in August, while gold prices increased by 23.9% during the same period [12][14] - The global low-interest-rate environment is shifting asset allocation towards gold, as traditional fixed-income assets become less attractive [16] Group 4: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of gold prices will largely depend on geopolitical developments and the sustainability of U.S. debt, with two potential scenarios outlined: stabilization or further escalation of tensions [25] - The current U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio has surged to 124%, necessitating significant interest payments, which raises concerns about fiscal sustainability and the potential impact on gold prices [22] - A recent survey indicated that 95% of central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, reflecting a growing confidence in gold amid economic uncertainties [17]

Core Viewpoint - The market's expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, along with geopolitical tensions, trade conflicts, and global economic uncertainties, has strengthened the demand for gold as a safe haven, providing support for gold prices [1][3] Price Movements - Gold prices faced resistance after reaching $3779, subsequently experiencing a decline to $3717 before rebounding to $3736 [1] - On Thursday, gold opened at $3751, faced resistance, and then stabilized around $3729 before rising to $3761, currently trading at $3753 [1][3] Technical Analysis - The overall trend for gold remains upward despite recent fluctuations, with key support levels at $3750 and $3730, and resistance levels at $3779 and $3791 [3] - Short-term technical indicators show that the bullish sentiment continues to dominate, although there are signs of potential adjustments [3] Market Sentiment - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious stance regarding inflation and employment risks has heightened market caution, impacting gold's upward momentum [1][3] - Recent geopolitical developments, including peace proposals and tariff agreements, have reduced market risk aversion, contributing to gold's price adjustments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current surge in spot gold prices reflects strong market consensus on the likelihood of the Federal Reserve implementing further monetary easing before the end of the year, with expectations of two additional rate cuts in October and December [3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Spot gold has shown a robust upward trend, achieving a sixth consecutive week of gains, driven by dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and significant inflows of safe-haven capital [1][3]. - The price of spot gold reached a record high of $3736.28, marking a breakthrough into a previously uncharted territory [1][3]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by over 40%, fueled by various global risk factors and expectations of continued monetary policy easing [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The successful breach of the previous key level of $3703 confirms strong bullish momentum in the market, with buyers dominating and pushing prices into new territory [6]. - The $3700 level has now become a critical support point, with additional support seen at $3673 and $3630, bolstered by previous trading ranges and moving averages [6]. - Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggest continued upward momentum, indicating that as long as prices remain above $3700, further gains towards new historical peaks are likely [6]. Group 3: Upcoming Events - Market attention will focus on speeches from several Federal Reserve officials, which may provide insights into future monetary policy directions following the recent cautious rate cut [4].

Group 1 - International gold prices surged to a historic high, with December 2025 gold futures rising by $61.8 to $3781.2 per ounce, marking a 1.66% increase [1] - The SPDR Gold Trust's gold holdings exceeded 1000 tons for the first time since August 2022, indicating strong investment demand [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to support safe-haven demand for gold, with expectations that the strong gold prices may persist [2] Group 2 - Silver prices also saw a significant increase, with December silver futures rising by 95 cents to $44.315 per ounce, a 2.19% gain [3] - The global silver market is expected to experience a fifth consecutive year of supply-demand imbalance, contributing to strong bullish sentiment for silver [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impact of weak U.S. economic data and geopolitical tensions on market sentiment, leading to a rise in gold prices and increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Economic Data - U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, the highest in nearly four years [1] - The New York Fed manufacturing index dropped sharply by 21 points to -8.7 in September, significantly below the market expectation of 5 [1] Market Reaction - COMEX gold futures prices surged, breaking previous highs to reach $3724.9, closing at $3719.50, a 0.90% increase [1] - Gold ETFs, such as 华夏 (518850), fell by 0.24%, while gold stock ETFs (159562) declined by 1.26% [1] Investor Sentiment - Overall market sentiment remains strong for gold due to low U.S. Treasury yields, a weakening dollar, and ongoing geopolitical risks, reinforcing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] - Analysts suggest that gold maintains a favorable position near historical highs with potential for continued upward movement [1]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices have surged to a historical high of $3,578 but have recently experienced significant volatility and a pullback as profit-taking occurs, with investors awaiting the upcoming non-farm payroll data for clues on Federal Reserve policy direction [1] - Initial jobless claims rose to 237,000, exceeding the expected 230,000, indicating a cooling labor market. This weak data reinforces expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, leading investors to adopt a cautious stance ahead of the non-farm report [1] - The ADP national employment report showed only 54,000 private sector jobs added in August, significantly below the market expectation of 65,000, with July's figure revised up to 106,000. These indicators suggest a gradual slowdown in the U.S. labor market, supporting gold's safe-haven demand while raising recession concerns [1] - Investors are focused on the upcoming U.S. non-farm employment report, which could directly influence the Federal Reserve's rate cut timeline and subsequently impact gold prices. Weak employment indicators strengthen rate cut expectations and support gold demand, but better-than-expected data could pressure gold prices [1] Technical Analysis - The hourly chart for gold (XAUUSD) shows a pattern of higher lows and higher highs, indicating a strong bullish trend. Recent profit-taking has led to a quick pullback, but the overall bullish trend remains intact. A breakout above resistance is anticipated following the non-farm data release [4] - The MACD indicator suggests that the bullish trend is dominant, with potential for a new upward movement if a bullish crossover signal occurs. The strategy recommends looking for support levels to enter long positions [4] Trading Strategy - For day trading, a long position is suggested around $3,528 with a stop loss at $3,515 and a target range of $3,545 to $3,600 [5] Silver Analysis - The hourly chart for silver (XAGUSD) indicates a similar bullish trend with higher lows and higher highs. Although there is a formation of a high-level consolidation pattern, the overall bullish trend remains unbroken as long as support levels hold [8] - The MACD indicator shows a low-level bullish crossover, suggesting a potential upward movement following the current adjustment. The strategy recommends entering long positions at key support levels [8] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases include U.K. Halifax house price index, U.K. retail sales, France's trade balance, Switzerland's consumer confidence index, Eurozone GDP revision, Eurozone employment figures, and U.S. employment statistics including unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls [9]

Group 1 - The gold market has attracted significant investor attention amid complex global economic and political conditions, with prices reaching a high of $3578.38 before a notable pullback [1] - Recent U.S. labor market data indicates a cooling trend, with July job additions at 73,000, the lowest in nine months, and August ADP report showing only 54,000 new jobs, below expectations [3] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have arisen due to actions by former President Trump, which could lead to increased inflation and a loss of the dollar's reserve currency status, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that the MACD indicator suggests strong bullish momentum, but the stochastic indicator indicates potential short-term pullback risks, with key support around the 5-day moving average [6] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is expected to significantly impact gold prices, with a poor performance likely to reinforce expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, potentially pushing gold prices above recent highs [7] - If non-farm data exceeds expectations, it may temper rate cut predictions, strengthening the dollar and putting downward pressure on gold prices [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent weak employment data in the U.S. has strengthened expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this month, leading to a significant rise in gold prices, which have reached a historical high, reflecting macroeconomic pressures and shifts in monetary policy [1][9]. Employment Data Summary - In July, job vacancies in the U.S. decreased by 176,000 to 7.181 million, the lowest level since September 2024, exceeding market expectations [3]. - The job vacancy rate fell to 4.3%, indicating a slowdown in labor demand [3]. - For the first time since April 2021, the number of unemployed individuals exceeded job vacancies, with only 0.99 vacancies per unemployed person [3]. - Although hiring increased slightly by 41,000 to 5.308 million, the hiring rate remained low at 3.3% [3]. - The healthcare and social assistance sectors saw a significant drop in job vacancies, while construction, manufacturing, and finance showed slight increases, failing to reverse the overall trend [3][4]. Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve officials have increasingly signaled a dovish stance in response to the weakening labor market, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut rising to 96% ahead of the September policy meeting [6][8]. - Fed Chair Powell indicated that changes in economic outlook may necessitate a policy adjustment [6]. - Atlanta Fed President Bostic and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari both support a rate cut, citing labor market conditions [7][8]. Gold Market Reaction - Gold prices have surged, with spot gold reaching a record high of $3,578 per ounce, closing at $3,558.93, marking a 0.72% increase [1][9]. - The decline in the U.S. dollar index and falling U.S. Treasury yields have contributed to the bullish sentiment in the gold market [9]. Global Economic Uncertainty - The rise in gold prices reflects broader global uncertainties, including the impact of tariffs and labor supply constraints stemming from the previous administration's policies [10]. - Investor concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and dovish statements from officials have heightened risk aversion, making gold an attractive asset [10]. - Upcoming economic data releases are expected to influence gold price volatility, but the overall upward trend appears solid [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise in gold prices, with spot gold nearing historical highs and a strong performance in gold futures, driven by expectations of a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][2][3] - As of the end of August, gold has accumulated a 30% increase year-to-date, making it one of the standout assets among major asset classes [2] - The A-share gold sector saw a collective rise of 8.82% on September 1, leading all industry sectors in the A-share market [2] Group 2 - Analysts attribute the continuous rise in gold prices to the strengthening market expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, particularly following remarks from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell [2][3] - The dual factors of anticipated Fed rate cuts and inflation tolerance are identified as the main drivers for the increase in gold prices, as lower real interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold [2][3] - Following the release of inflation data, the market reinforced expectations for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve, leading to a notable increase in international gold prices [3] Group 3 - Global central banks are continuing to increase their gold holdings, contributing significantly to the demand side of the gold price increase [3] - Predictions for future gold prices remain optimistic, with institutions like UBS raising their target for gold prices to $3,700 per ounce by mid-2026, and Bank of America forecasting prices to reach $4,000 per ounce in the same timeframe [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review - Date: August 29, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Financial Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold is accumulating upward breakthrough momentum despite temporarily being blocked at the $3400/oz level, with the bottom of the phased correction since the end of June gradually rising. The volatility of gold has increased, but the medium - term upward trend remains good. London gold may trade in a wide range between $3120 - $3500/oz and then rise again. [4] - The price of silver with strong industrial attributes has been boosted by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the strong rebound of the Chinese stock market, and the London gold - silver ratio has returned to 87.5. [4] - The restructuring of the international trade currency system and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations continue to support the gold price, but the high price - to - earnings ratio also means significant volatility. The weak US employment market provides a necessary condition for the Fed to restart the interest - rate cut process, but rising inflation pressure may restrict the pace. [5] - Investors are advised to maintain a long - term view and participate in gold and silver trading with medium - to - low positions, avoiding full - position chasing and blind short - selling. [4][5] Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metals Market Trends and Outlook Intraday Market - Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook has raised concerns about the loss of US fiscal and financial discipline. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the strong rebound of the Chinese stock market have boosted the price of silver. The gold - silver ratio in London has returned to 87.5. The new Trump 2.0 policy has greatly boosted the safe - haven demand for gold. London gold may trade in a wide range between $3120 - $3500/oz and then rise again. [4] Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been trading in a wide range between $3100 - $3500/oz. The restructuring of the international trade currency system and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations continue to support the gold price. It is expected that London gold will continue to trade in the range of $3120 - $3500/oz in the short term, with the bottom of the correction gradually rising since the end of June. [5] Domestic Precious Metals Market - The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 785.49, up 0.28%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9399, up 0.77%; Gold T + D closed at 779.97, up 0.30%; Silver T + D closed at 9330, up 0.75%. [5] 2. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides six charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. [7] 3. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - New York Fed President Williams said that the Fed may cut interest rates at some point, but policymakers need to see economic data before deciding whether to cut rates at the September 16 - 17 meeting. Fed Governor Cook's lawsuit against Trump's dismissal may be filed as early as Wednesday. [8] - The EU will accelerate legislation to cancel tariffs on US industrial products this week. Mexico plans to raise tariffs on Chinese imports in its 2026 budget proposal next month. [8]