行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 9 月 1 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 4 月下旬至今伦敦黄金整体上处于 3100-3500 美元/盎司之间宽幅震荡，国际 贸易形势缓和与金融市场走好削弱黄金的避险需求，但国际贸易货币体系重组以 及美联储降息预期继续支撑金价。我们判断国际贸易货币体系重组带来的避险需 求和储备分散化需求将继续支撑黄金长周期牛市，特朗普同时推进国内外多项重 磅改革导致经济增长疲软与央行降息预期将继续支撑黄金中周期牛市；但金价持 续偏强运行以及极高的市盈率水平也意味着金价波动性显著增强，美国就业市场 疲软为美联储重启降息进程提供必要条件但通 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The international trade and monetary system restructuring and reserve diversification needs will support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's reforms and economic situation will support the medium - term bull market. However, high price and P/E ratio lead to increased volatility. It is expected that London gold will run in the range in the short - term and then break through. Investors are advised to hold a long - term view with medium - low positions, and short - term traders can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunities [4][5]. - In the short - term, due to factors such as inflation data and Fed officials' attitudes, gold's volatility has increased, but the medium - term upward trend remains good. London gold may fluctuate widely between $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise again [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Precious Metals Market Analysis - **Intraday Market**: In July, US overall CPI was lower than expected, but core CPI was higher. The US Treasury Secretary called for a 50BP rate cut in September. The Fed's rate - cut expectation pushed the dollar index down to around 97.6 and London gold rebounded to $3375 per ounce. However, two Fed officials' cautious attitudes led to a gold price correction. Trump's new policy boosted gold's safe - haven demand. Gold's volatility increased, and it's recommended to trade with a long - term view and medium - low positions. This week, focus on the US - Russia summit, US inflation data, Fed officials' statements, and China's economic data [4]. - **Domestic Market Data**: Shanghai Gold Index closed at 780.46, up 0.13%; Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9305, down 0.13%; Gold T+D closed at 775.06, up 0.05%; Silver T+D closed at 9270, down 0.09% [5]. - **Medium - term Market**: Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. International trade situation and US fiscal expansion weakened gold's demand, but Trump's new policy and geopolitical risks supported it. Fed's rate - cut expectation rose due to the nomination of new Fed governors and a weak employment market. Speculative funds flowed into silver and platinum in June, and silver prices fluctuated in July. The gold - silver ratio in London stabilized after falling to 86. It's expected that London gold will continue to run in the range in the short - term [5]. 3.2. Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The report provides six charts including Shanghai precious metals futures indices, London precious metals spot prices, basis of Shanghai futures indices to Shanghai Gold TD, precious metals ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7]. 3.3. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - **Geopolitical Events**: Trump threatened Putin over the Ukraine issue and may hold a US - Russia - Ukraine summit. The US Treasury Secretary said sanctions might increase if the US - Russia summit goes badly and called on Europe to impose sanctions [8]. - **Monetary Policy Expectations**: After US July inflation data, the market thought the probability of a 25BP rate cut in September was 99.9%. The Treasury Secretary thought a 50BP cut was possible, and Trump was narrowing down the candidates for the next Fed Chair [8]. - **Fed Officials' Views**: Chicago Fed President Goolsbee was worried about inflation and labor market assumptions, and needed multiple months of good inflation data to support rate cuts. Atlanta Fed President Bostic thought the job market was close to full - employment, and the Fed should avoid policy volatility [9]. - **Economic Policy**: The US Treasury Secretary said the 15% revenue - handing - over agreement for semiconductor sales to China might expand to other industries and denied national security concerns [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold's volatility is rising, while its medium - term upward trend remains intact. London gold may trade in a wide range between $3,120 - $3,500 per ounce before rising again. Investors are advised to maintain a long - term view and participate in trading with a medium - to - low position [4]. - The restructuring of the international trade and monetary system and the demand for reserve diversification will support the long - term bull market in gold. Trump's reforms leading to economic weakness and central bank interest rate cut expectations will support the medium - term bull market. However, high price and P/E ratio mean increased volatility. In the third quarter, attention should be paid to the impact of US economic growth and inflation on Fed policy. It is expected that London gold will continue to trade in a range in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 贵金属行情及展望 3.1.1 Intraday Market - Due to Trump's threat to sue Fed Chairman Powell and US July CPI being lower than expected, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation cooled, pushing the US dollar index down to around 98 and London gold rebounding above $3,350 per ounce. The strong rise of the Chinese stock market made silver with higher industrial attributes relatively stronger. The US government's downplaying of the Russia - US summit reduced the pressure on the precious metal market from the cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Trump's new policies boosted gold's safe - haven demand. London gold may trade in a wide range and then rise again. Investors are advised to maintain a long - term view and participate in trading with a medium - to - low position [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been trading in a wide range between $3,100 - $3,500 per ounce. The cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill weakened gold's safe - haven and allocation demand, but Trump's new policy uncertainty, geopolitical risks, Fed new governor nomination, and deteriorating US job market increased the Fed's interest rate cut expectation. In June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and in July, silver prices fluctuated greatly due to anti - involution policy expectations. The London gold - silver ratio rebounded slightly after falling to 86. It is judged that the long - term bull market of gold will be supported by the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system, and the medium - term bull market will be supported by Trump's reforms and interest rate cut expectations. However, high prices also mean increased volatility. In the short term, London gold is expected to continue trading in a range. Investors are advised to maintain a long - term view, and short - term investors can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunities [5]. 3.2 贵金属市场相关图表 - The report provides six charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indexes, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai gold TD, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7]. 3.3 主要宏观事件/数据 - The US Treasury Secretary said that US trade officials will meet with Chinese officials in the next two to three months. There are still several major trade agreements to be completed, but India is being difficult in negotiations. If a lower - court case goes to the Supreme Court, it will be difficult for the court to rule against the Trump administration [8]. - US July inflation was moderate, increasing investors' bets on a September Fed interest rate cut. July CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year (lower than expected). Core CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month (the largest increase since January) and 3.1% year - on - year (higher than June) [8]. - Kansas City Fed President Schmid said that the limited impact of tariffs on inflation should be seen as a sign of proper monetary policy calibration, not an opportunity for interest rate cuts. Trump is considering suing Fed Chairman Powell for mismanagement of the Fed's renovation project [9]. - The White House downplayed expectations of a quick Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement from the Trump - Putin summit. European leaders, Ukrainian President Zelensky, Trump, and US Vice - President Vance will participate in a high - level video conference. Putin informed North Korean leader Kim Jong - un about the upcoming meeting with Trump [9].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bonds and Container Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index) [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of trade policies and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut support the gold price, while the narrowing of the US trade deficit in June and the service PMI above the boom-bust line support the US dollar index and weaken the safe-haven demand for gold. The London gold price continues to trade in the range of $3345 - $3390 per ounce. The gold's safe-haven demand is greatly boosted by Trump's 2.0 new policy, and the London gold may rise again after wide-range consolidation between $3120 - $3500 per ounce. It is recommended that investors maintain a long position mindset and participate in trading with medium to low positions [4]. - Since late April, London gold has been in a wide-range oscillation between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The cooling of international trade situation and the US fiscal expansion bill weaken the safe-haven and allocation demand for gold, but the uncertainty of Trump's new policy and high international geopolitical risks continue to support the gold price. The safe-haven and reserve diversification demand brought by the reorganization of the international trade and monetary system will continue to support the long-term bull market of gold, and the economic growth weakness and the expectation of central bank interest rate cuts caused by Trump's multiple reforms will support the medium-term bull market. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate and consolidate in the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce in the short term. Investors are advised to maintain a long position mindset and participate in trading with medium to low positions, and short-minded traders can pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of "going long on gold and shorting silver" after the upward momentum of silver fades [6]. Group 4: Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - Trump's tariff threats on drugs, semiconductors, and India, and the nomination of new Fed governors, along with trade policy uncertainty and Fed rate cut expectations, support the gold price. Meanwhile, the narrowing of the US trade deficit in June and the service PMI above the boom-bust line support the US dollar index and weaken the safe-haven demand for gold. The London gold price continues to trade in the range of $3345 - $3390 per ounce. The expectation of the Fed restarting the rate cut process drives the global stock market and industrial commodities to run strongly, and the London gold-silver ratio slightly drops to 89.2. It is recommended that investors maintain a long position mindset and participate in trading with medium to low positions [4]. Medium-Term Market - Since late April, London gold has been in a wide-range oscillation between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The cooling of international trade situation and the US fiscal expansion bill weaken the safe-haven and allocation demand for gold, but the uncertainty of Trump's new policy and high international geopolitical risks continue to support the gold price. In June, speculative funds flooded into the relatively underperforming silver and platinum markets, and the gold-silver ratio has basically returned to the level before April. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate and consolidate in the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce in the short term. Investors are advised to maintain a long position mindset and participate in trading with medium to low positions, and short-minded traders can pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of "going long on gold and shorting silver" after the upward momentum of silver fades [6]. Group 5: Domestic Precious Metals Market Conditions | Contract | Pre - closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold Index | 784.16 | 787.42 | 784.30 | 785.36 | 0.15% | 433,180 | - 4596 | | Shanghai Silver Index | 9,093 | 9,217 | 9,113 | 9,199 | 1.17% | 789,871 | 5,633 | | Gold T + D | 779.92 | 781.70 | 775.17 | 779.63 | - 0.04% | 216,324 | 7,234 | | Silver T + D | 9,052 | 9,168 | 9,045 | 9,150 | 1.08% | 3,470,566 | 27,222 | [5] Group 6: Main Macro Events/Data 1. In June, the US trade deficit narrowed by 16.0% to $60.2 billion, and the trade deficit with China decreased by about one-third to $9.5 billion, the lowest since February 2004. In July, the US service industry business activity was basically flat, orders hardly changed, employment weakened further, and input costs rose at the largest rate in nearly three years, highlighting the continuous drag of tariff policy uncertainty on enterprises [18]. 2. Trump will decide on the replacement for Fed governor Kugler before the weekend and has narrowed the list of candidates for the next Fed chair to four, including current National Economic Council Director Hassett and former Fed governor Warsh. Treasury Secretary Bessent is excluded because he wants to continue in his current position [18]. 3. The US will first impose a "small tariff" on drug imports and then increase the rate in about a year. Trump will announce tariffs on semiconductors and chips in about a week. Given India's continued purchase of Russian oil, Trump will "significantly" increase the tariffs on goods imported from India from the current 25% within the next 24 hours [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term volatility of gold has increased, but the medium - term upward trend remains good. London gold may fluctuate widely between $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise again. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4]. - The restructuring of the international trade and monetary system and the dispersion of reserve demand will support the long - term bull market of gold. Trump's reforms leading to economic weakness and central bank interest - rate cut expectations will support the medium - term bull market. However, high price - to - earnings ratios also mean increased volatility, and attention should be paid to the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's interest - rate cut timing in the third quarter. Investors are advised not to go full - long or blindly short, and short - minded traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunity [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and Fed Chairman Powell indicated that more time was needed to assess the impact of tariff policies on inflation. The better - than - expected US second - quarter GDP and June ADP private employment data cooled the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the US dollar index tested the 100 mark. London gold once fell to $3267 per ounce, but then rebounded to around $3300 per ounce due to Trump's tariff threats. Silver with strong industrial attributes fell below the $37 per ounce mark [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been fluctuating widely between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill have weakened the safe - haven and allocation demand for gold, but Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks still support the gold price. In June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and the gold - to - silver ratio has basically returned to the level before April [6]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - to - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [8][10][12]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. Powell's remarks reduced the probability of a Fed interest - rate cut in September from nearly 70% to less than 50%. Two Fed governors appointed by Trump opposed the decision [19]. - Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian imports starting from August 1st and mentioned a fine for India without details. India is studying the impact and aims for a fair trade agreement. Trump also said the deadline for imposing reciprocal tariffs on other trading partners will not be extended this Friday [19]. - The US second - quarter GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.0% quarter - on - quarter, exceeding the expected 2.4%. However, this indicator exaggerated the economic health as the decline in imports was the main reason for the improvement, and domestic demand growth was the slowest in two and a half years [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of Trump's new policy and high international geopolitical risks continue to support the gold price, while the cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill reduce the demand for gold as a hedge and for allocation. The report expects the long - term and medium - term bull markets of gold to continue, but the price volatility will increase significantly. It is recommended that investors participate in trading with a long - term mindset and medium - low positions [4][6]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Trends and Outlook - **Intraday Trends**: Due to Trump's threat to Russia and the lack of breakthroughs in the China - US - Sweden economic and trade meeting, the US dollar index pulled back slightly after reaching 99, and London gold rebounded to around $3330 per ounce. The Politburo meeting's lack of specific deployment on anti - involution made silver, which has strong industrial attributes, relatively weak. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - term mindset and use medium - low positions to participate in trading. This week, attention should be paid to economic and trade talks, central bank meetings, and important economic data [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 775.25, up 0.29% with an open interest of 424,176 and an increase of 3248; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9,205, down 0.03% with an open interest of 835,724 and a decrease of 10,841; Gold T + D closed at 769.40, up 0.29% with an open interest of 214,988 and an increase of 8030; Silver T + D closed at 9,166, up 0.03% with an open interest of 3,535,666 and an increase of 30,532 [5]. - **Medium - term Trends**: Since late April, London gold has been in a wide - range oscillation between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The inflow of speculative funds into the silver and platinum markets in June has brought the gold - silver ratio back to the level before April. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate in the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce in the short term, and investors are advised to maintain a long - term mindset and use medium - low positions to participate in trading [6]. II. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [8][10][12]. III. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - **China - US Economic and Trade Talks**: China and the US held a two - day constructive meeting in Stockholm, aiming to ease the trade war. Both sides agreed to strive to extend the current 90 - day tariff truce, but no major breakthroughs were announced, and whether to extend the truce will be decided by President Trump [18]. - **IMF's Global Economic Growth Forecast**: The International Monetary Fund slightly raised its global economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points to 3.0% and 3.1% respectively, but warned that the global economy still faces significant risks [18]. - **Trump's Statement on Russia**: Trump said that if Russia shows no progress in ending the Ukraine war, the US will impose tariffs and other measures on Russia 10 days after July 29 [18]. - **China's PV Industry Association**: The China Photovoltaic Industry Association issued a clarification statement, indicating that recent news about anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry, especially in the polysilicon sector, does not match the actual situation [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The international trade and currency system restructuring and reserve diversification needs will support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's reforms and central bank rate - cut expectations will support the medium - term bull market. However, high price and PE ratio lead to increased volatility, and the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's rate - cut timing in Q3 should be noted. It is recommended to hold a long - term view with medium - low positions [6]. - In the short term, London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce, waiting for the next upward breakthrough. Traders with a bearish view can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunity when silver's upward momentum fades [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: After Trump's meeting with Fed Chairman Powell, market concerns about the Fed's independence and US fiscal discipline eased. Also, the trade situation improved, reducing the safe - haven demand. London gold fell from $3430 to around $3310 per ounce, and silver, with strong industrial attributes, also declined. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump's new policies. It is recommended to hold a long - term view with medium - low positions. This week, pay attention to important economic events and data [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market**: Shanghai Gold Index closed at 776.35, down 0.30%; Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9225, down 1.89%; Gold T + D closed at 771.60, down 0.26%; Silver T + D closed at 9187, down 1.97% [5]. - **Medium - term Market**: Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. International trade cooling and the US fiscal expansion bill weakened gold's demand, but Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks supported the price. The gold - silver ratio has returned to the pre - April level. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate in the $3120 - $3500 per ounce range in the short term [6]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data from Wind and the research and development department of CCB Futures [8][10][16]. 3.3 Major Macro Events/Data - The US and the EU reached a framework trade agreement, with a 15% import tariff on most EU goods, half of the threatened rate. The EU plans to invest about $600 billion in the US and increase purchases of US energy and military equipment [17]. - Thailand and Cambodia will hold a mediation meeting on border conflicts in Malaysia, with Thailand's acting prime minister and Cambodia's prime minister attending [17]. - The US government will announce the results of a national security investigation on semiconductor imports in two weeks [17]. - US core capital goods orders unexpectedly declined in June, but shipments increased slightly, indicating a significant slowdown in business equipment spending in Q2 [17].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of Trump's new policies and high international geopolitical risks continue to support the gold price, and the restructuring of the international trade - currency system will support the long - term bull market of gold. The economic growth slowdown and central bank interest - rate cut expectations caused by Trump's reforms will support the medium - term bull market of gold. However, high price - to - earnings ratios mean increased price volatility, and in the third quarter, attention should be paid to the impact of the implementation of the US fiscal expansion bill and rising inflation pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut timing [6]. - In the short term, London gold is expected to continue to oscillate within the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce, waiting for the next round of breakthrough and upward trend. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4][6]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: Trump's government pressured the Fed to cut interest rates, causing the US dollar exchange rate and US Treasury yields to decline significantly, which boosted the price of precious metals with strong financial attributes. London gold rebounded close to $3440 per ounce. However, the information about the US reaching trade agreements with the Philippines and Japan in the Asian session on the 23rd weakened the safe - haven demand for gold. Currently, the volatility of gold has increased, but the medium - term upward trend remains good. London gold may oscillate within the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise again. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions. This week, attention should be paid to the preliminary PMI values for July in Europe and the US and the ECB's interest - rate meeting [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: Since late April, London gold has been oscillating within the range of $3100 - $3500 per ounce. Although the cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill have weakened the safe - haven and allocation demand for gold, the uncertainty of Trump's new policies and high geopolitical risks continue to support the price. It is expected that in the short term, London gold will continue to oscillate within the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions. Traders with a bearish mindset can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage strategy after the upward momentum of silver fades [6]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 794.01, up 1.04%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9500, up 1.05%; the Gold T + D closed at 788.11, up 1.04%; the Silver T + D closed at 9475, up 1.14% [5]. II. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - The US Treasury Secretary, Bezant, will meet with the Chinese Treasury Secretary in Stockholm next week to discuss whether to extend the deadline for the agreement reached on August 12 to avoid a significant tariff increase. China's embassy in the US said that the implementation details of the trade consensus reached by Trump and Xi Jinping have been finalized [18]. - US President Trump said that a large - scale deal has been reached with Japan, and Japan will pay a 15% reciprocal tariff to the US and invest $550 billion in the US as required. The EU's trade commissioner said that the upcoming China - EU summit is an opportunity to discuss key trade and investment issues [18]. - Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell, saying that he is a fool for keeping interest rates too high and that Powell will step down in eight months. Trump believes that the policy interest rate should be 3 percentage points lower than the current level. Bezant said that there is no need for Powell to step down immediately and that Powell should adjust the scale of the Fed's non - monetary policy functions as a legacy of his tenure [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that the international trade and monetary system restructuring and reserve diversification needs will support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's reforms and central bank rate - cut expectations will support the medium - term bull market. However, the high price and P/E ratio also increase the volatility of gold prices. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce in the short term, and investors are advised to take a long - position approach with medium - low positions [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - Weak US real estate data and domestic political risks pushed the US dollar index down to around 98.3. Potential candidates for the Fed chair support rapid rate cuts, providing potential support for precious metals. London gold rose slightly to around $3370 per ounce, and silver with strong industrial attributes strengthened due to anti - involution expectations. Trump's new policies boost the safe - haven demand for gold. London gold may oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise again. Investors are advised to hold a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - low positions. This week, focus on the preliminary July PMI values in Europe and the US and the ECB's interest - rate meeting [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. Cooling international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill weakened gold's safe - haven and allocation needs, but Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks still support the price. In June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and the gold - silver ratio has returned to the pre - April level. The report believes that the long - term bull market of gold is supported by international trade and monetary system restructuring, and the medium - term bull market is supported by Trump's reforms and rate - cut expectations. However, high prices also increase volatility, and in the third quarter, attention should be paid to the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's rate - cut timing. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce in the short term. Investors are advised to take a long - position approach with medium - low positions, and short - minded traders can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunities [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold T+D, and gold and silver ETF holdings, but no specific analysis of these charts is provided in the text [7][9][11]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - In Japan's Sunday election, the ruling coalition is likely to lose control of the Senate, weakening Prime Minister Ishiba's power [17]. - G20 finance leaders emphasized central bank independence and cooperation in a joint communiqué, highlighting global economic uncertainties [17]. - The US House China Special Committee chair opposes resuming the sale of Nvidia H20 chips to China, and Nvidia has informed Chinese customers of limited supply and no plan to restart production [17]. - US single - family home starts in June dropped to an 11 - month low, with a 4.6% decline and building permits down 3.7%, indicating a potential contraction in residential investment in Q2 [18].

Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review - Date: July 16, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Financial Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bond and Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index) [2] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The restructuring of the international trade - currency system and the demand for reserve diversification will support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's reforms and related economic situations will support the medium - term bull market. But the high price and PE ratio make the price volatility increase, and the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's interest - rate cut needs attention in Q3. It is expected that London gold will oscillate between $3120 - 3500 per ounce in the short term, and investors are advised to take a long - position approach with medium - low positions [6]. Section Summaries 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - The resumption of US aid to Ukraine and threats of sanctions against Russia boost the safe - haven demand for precious metals. The US dollar index has a slight pullback, pushing London gold to around $3360 per ounce. Overnight, speculative funds pushed London silver to break through the $39 per ounce resistance level, but profit - taking led to a pullback. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump's new policies. It is recommended that investors take a long - position approach with medium - low positions. This week, focus on China's Q2 GDP and June economic data, and US June inflation and consumption data [4]. Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - 3500 per ounce. International trade cooling and the US fiscal expansion bill weaken gold's demand, but Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks support the price. In June, speculative funds flowed into silver and platinum markets, and the gold - silver ratio has returned to the level before April. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - 3500 per ounce in the short term, and investors are advised to take a long - position approach with medium - low positions. Short - biased traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage [6]. Domestic Precious Metals Market | Contract | Pre - closing Price | High | Low | Closing Price | Change (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold Index | 782.06 | 782.14 | 776.58 | 781.09 | - 0.12% | 404,570 | 7131 | | Shanghai Silver Index | 9213 | 9231 | 9156 | 9231 | 0.20% | 1,002,552 | - 7677 | | Gold T + D | 777.46 | 777.00 | 771.80 | 776.13 | - 0.17% | 211,514 | - 3484 | | Silver T + D | 9172 | 9189 | 9117 | 9184 | 0.13% | 3,257,966 | 14962 | [5] 2. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [8][10][12] 3. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - The EU accuses the US of resisting trade - agreement efforts and warns of counter - measures. Trump is open to further discussions before the new 30% tariff takes effect, and EU officials will go to the US for negotiations [18]. - Bitcoin breaks through $120,000 for the first time, with a 30% increase this year. Investors expect a policy victory this week [18]. - Trump says the US will send top - level weapons to NATO to support Ukraine, and will impose strict tariffs on Russia if no cease - fire agreement is reached in 50 days [18]. - The US Commerce Department launches a national - security investigation into imported drones, related parts, solar panels, and polysilicon [19].