行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 12 月 12 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 美联储议息会议决定再次降息且开始购买短债，美联储主席拒绝对 2026 年政 策利率路径做出预期，但指出就业市场继续偏弱而关税推升的通胀或逐渐消退， 这意味着美联储或按兵不动或继续降息但不可能加息，议息会议传递的偏鸽派基 调打压美元指数并推动贵金属价格上涨。全球白银连年供不应求、2026 年全球经 济增长前景改善以及资金因素推动近期银价显著偏强运行，11 日亚盘时段伦敦白 银一度接近 63 美元/盎司；我们判断 2026 年白银还有较大的上涨空 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, gold prices are likely to rise due to the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, but geopolitical news and the easing of global trade tensions affect its upward momentum. London gold needs to move in the range of $3,880 - $4,380 per ounce to accumulate momentum for a new breakthrough. Silver, platinum, and palladium, with strong industrial attributes, have been strong recently but show signs of adjustment. In the medium - to - long - term, factors such as central bank easing, geopolitical risks, and the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system support the upward trend of gold prices [4]. - The medium - level bull market of precious metals since March 2024 has not ended. In the next half - year and one - year, London gold may rise to $4,500 and $4,800 per ounce respectively, and London silver may rise to $58 and $63 per ounce respectively. Investors are advised to hold a long - position mindset [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market - **Intraday Market**: The decline of the US November ISM manufacturing PMI strengthens the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December. The price of London gold is affected by multiple factors, and silver, platinum, and palladium show signs of adjustment [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: The US employment and inflation situation supports the Fed to restart the rate - cut process. The re - emergence of the Abe economic route in Japan and the restructuring of the global trade and monetary system provide support for precious metals. The medium - level bull market continues, and investors are advised to look for long - entry opportunities [5]. - **Domestic Market Data**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 959.73, down 0.48%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 13,418, up 1.08%; Gold T + D closed at 954.80, down 0.36%; Silver T + D closed at 13,408, up 1.11% [5]. 3.2 Main Macro Events/Data - **Geopolitical Events**: After the US - Ukraine talks on the Russia - Ukraine peace proposal, European leaders support Zelensky, and a US envoy goes to Moscow. The US and the UK reach a zero - tariff agreement on pharmaceuticals and medical technology, which will increase the UK's drug expenditure [16]. - **Economic Data**: The US manufacturing PMI in November dropped from 48.7 in October to 48.2, indicating a continuous contraction for nine months. Although manufacturing activities are expected to improve after the end of the government shutdown, they may remain sluggish [16].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that in the short - to - medium term, multiple factors are at play in the precious metals market. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and a weaker US dollar drive up the prices of gold and silver, but the cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the easing of international trade situation limit the upward momentum of gold prices. The London gold price is expected to fluctuate within the range of $3,880 - $4,380 per ounce for a longer period. In the medium - to - long term, factors such as central bank easing, geopolitical risks, and the restructuring of the international trade and currency system support the upward trend of precious metal prices. The intermediate bull market of precious metals that started in March 2024 is not over. In the next six months and one year, the price of London gold may rise to $4,500 and $4,800 per ounce respectively, and the price of London silver may rise to $58 and $63 per ounce respectively [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Analysis - **Intraday Market**: The support of New York Fed officials for a near - term interest rate cut by the Fed, weak US consumer spending and confidence data, and a rise in the Fed's interest rate cut expectation to over 80% along with a decline in the US dollar index below 100 have pushed up the prices of gold and silver. However, the cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the easing of international trade situation have curbed the upward momentum of gold prices. It is not advisable to over - pursue long or short positions at present [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: The US employment and inflation situation support the Fed to restart the interest rate cut process, and the interest rate cut may be larger than needed. The election of Kōmeitō's candidate for the Japanese prime minister and the global trade and currency system restructuring and geopolitical risks continue to provide demand for gold. The intermediate bull market of precious metals since March 2024 is not over. After the significant correction of gold and silver prices since late October, investors should watch for opportunities to go long again [5]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 947.69 with a 0.02% increase, the Shanghai Silver Index at 12,222 with a 0.81% increase, the Gold T + D at 941.20 with a 0.05% increase, and the Silver T + D at 12,205 with a 0.60% increase [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report presents multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices to Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - to - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, all sourced from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [7][9][11]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - **Geopolitical Events**: Ukrainian President Zelensky is ready to advance a US - supported framework agreement to end the war with Russia, and Trump has instructed envoys to meet with relevant parties. There are only a few points of disagreement left in the negotiation [17]. - **US Fed News**: US Treasury Secretary Bessent is conducting the second - round interview for the new Fed chairman, and Trump may announce the candidate before Christmas. Bloomberg reported that White House economic advisor Hassett is the favorite, but the White House refuted this [17]. - **Economic Data**: US retail sales in September increased by only 0.2% after a 0.6% increase in August, lower than expected. The producer price index for final demand rebounded 0.3% in September, mainly driven by a 3.5% increase in energy costs and a 1.1% increase in food prices. The consumer confidence index in November dropped to a seven - month low [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current round of precious metals upward trend since late August may extend to 2026 due to factors such as the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts, high geopolitical risks, and the acceleration of the global trade - currency system restructuring. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset, and short - hedgers can appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. However, the current high price - earnings ratio of gold requires strong safe - haven demand, and long - position investors need to control their positions and be aware of short - term adjustment risks [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Analysis - **Intraday Market**: Sino - US trade tensions show signs of easing, weakening safe - haven demand and pressuring London gold to around $4080 per ounce. But the US federal government shutdown and Fed rate cuts support precious metals. It is necessary to observe whether London gold can stabilize between $3950 - $4050 per ounce. This week, focus on Sino - US trade talks, China's September economic data, the progress of the US government shutdown, and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: The US employment and inflation situation supports the Fed's rate - cut restart. Global trade - currency system restructuring and high geopolitical risks continue to drive gold demand. The upward trend of precious metals since late August may extend to 2026. The six - month and one - year target prices for London gold are $4500 and $4800 per ounce respectively, and for London silver are $58 and $63 per ounce respectively. However, the current high price - earnings ratio of gold requires strong safe - haven demand, and long - position investors need to control positions and beware of short - term adjustments. The support levels for London gold are $4130 and $3975 per ounce, and for London silver are $50.31 and $47.76 per ounce [5]. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report provides multiple charts related to precious metals, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai gold T + D, and gold and silver ETF holdings, etc., but no specific analysis of these charts is given in the text [6][7][9]. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Russian President Putin stated that Moscow will never yield to external pressure and will respond overwhelmingly if its deep - seated targets are attacked. He also said that US and Western sanctions have little impact on Russia's economic well - being [17]. - The EU included two Chinese refineries (Liaoyang Petrochemical and Shandong Yulong Petrochemical) and PetroChina's trading unit (PetroChina Hong Kong) in the sanctions list against Russia, claiming they are major buyers of Russian crude oil. It also sanctioned a Chinese trading company for its role in Russia's sanctions - evasion [17]. - The US is preparing to investigate China's compliance with the trade agreement signed during Trump's first term [17]. - The Kuwaiti oil minister said that OPEC is ready to increase oil production by further canceling production cuts if necessary after the US imposed new sanctions on Russian oil giants, expecting demand to shift to the Gulf and Middle East regions [17].

Report Overview - Report Date: October 21, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Precious Metals Daily Report - Research Team: Macro Finance Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term surge in precious metal prices may have ended due to the possible easing of Sino - US trade tensions, but the uptrend may continue until 2026 due to factors like Fed rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish trading approach while being aware of short - term adjustment risks [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - The possible easing of Sino - US trade tensions through this week's economic and trade consultations in Malaysia has alleviated market concerns, leading to significant price drops in gold and silver on Friday. The short - term surge may be over, and investors should watch for short - term adjustment risks. However, factors such as Fed rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system continue to provide safe - haven demand and liquidity premiums for precious metals, and the uptrend may last until 2026. This week, key events to monitor include the fifth round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, China's September economic data, the progress of the US government shutdown, and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - From late April to early August, London gold oscillated between $3100 - 3500 per ounce to digest high - valuation pressure. Easing international trade conditions and a strong global stock market weakened safe - haven demand. Since August, the US employment and inflation situation has supported the Fed's rate - cut process, and under the Trump administration's pressure, the rate - cut pace may be faster. The restructuring of the international trade and monetary system and geopolitical risks continue to provide safe - haven demand for gold. From late August to mid - October, London gold started a new uptrend, soaring to $4380 per ounce, and London silver reached a new record of $54.47 per ounce. The bullish factors will continue to work, but short - term price surges bring adjustment risks, and bullish factors may weaken periodically. Investors are advised to be bullish overall, and short - hedgers can reduce the hedging ratio [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The report presents multiple charts, including those of Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [7][9][11] 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump pressured the Ukrainian president to give up territory and proposed an agreement based on the current front line, which was accepted by Zelensky [17]. - Trump continued to signal trade - tension easing, and the Trump administration is quietly relaxing tariff policies, exempting dozens of products from so - called reciprocal tariffs and willing to exclude more products when trade agreements are reached [17]. - S&P downgraded France's long - term foreign - currency issuer default rating from "AA -" to "A+", the second downgrade in a year and a half. Fitch had downgraded France's rating in September, and Moody's will announce its latest rating decision on the 24th [17]. - The US and South Korea have made substantial progress in most trade negotiation issues, and the possibility of reaching a trade agreement before the APEC meeting is high [18].

Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review - Date: September 30, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Finance Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bonds and Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index) [2] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core View - Gold prices have started a new upward trend, which may last until the spring and summer of 2026. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset in precious metals trading, and short - hedgers can appropriately reduce their hedging ratios. Due to the Fed's potential interest rate cuts and geopolitical risks, both gold and silver are expected to rise, with silver potentially outperforming gold due to its high volatility. With the approaching of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays and numerous key data events, the volatility of precious metals may increase, and investors are advised to reduce their positions [4][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Trends and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - The risk of the US government shutdown caused the US dollar index to decline for two consecutive days, falling below the 98 mark. News of potential US drone strikes in Venezuela increased risk - aversion demand. London gold broke through the $3,800 per ounce mark, and London silver reached $47.2 per ounce. Gold prices had a sideways consolidation from late April to August to digest high - valuation pressure. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have boosted gold prices since early September, starting a new upward trend. This week, attention should be paid to global September PMI, US September non - farm payrolls, and the progress of the US congressional game. With the approaching holidays, investors should reduce positions to avoid risks [4] 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - From late April to early August, London gold fluctuated widely between $3,100 - $3,500 per ounce to digest over - valuation. Since August, the US employment and inflation situation has supported the Fed's restart of the interest - rate cut process. Geopolitical risks also provided safe - haven demand for gold. From late August to early September, various factors drove the gold price to break through $3,500 per ounce. The new upward trend is expected to last until the spring and summer of 2026. Silver, with strong industrial attributes, will also rise with gold and may outperform gold in terms of gains [5] 3.2 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump announced new import tariffs on October 1, including a 100% tariff on patented drugs and a 25% tariff on heavy trucks, breaking the relatively calm trade situation and causing new uncertainties [17] - US consumer spending in August increased slightly more than expected, with a 0.6% increase. Personal income rose 0.4%, and the savings rate dropped to 4.6%. The PCE price index rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year, and the core PCE price index rose 0.2% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year [17] - Fed's regulatory vice - chair Bowman reiterated the need for decisive interest - rate cuts and supported balance - sheet reduction and adjustment of the standing repurchase mechanism. Richmond Fed President Barkin believes the risks of a significant increase in unemployment or inflation are limited [18] - OPEC+ may approve an increase in oil production of at least 137,000 barrels per day at its October 5 meeting, but the final decision is yet to be made [18]

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The international trade currency system restructuring and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations continue to support the long - and medium - term bull market of gold, but the high price also means increased volatility. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - term view and participate in gold and silver trading with medium - to - low positions [4][6] Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook Intraday Market - Fed Governor Waller supports a September interest rate cut and further cuts in the next six months, and Governor Cook sues Trump. The Fed's interest rate cut expectations push the US dollar index below 98 and London gold above $3400/oz. However, the better - than - expected Q2 GDP revision in the US and stable weekly unemployment data limit the upward momentum of gold prices. The market expects the overall PCE and core PCE in July to increase by 2.6% and 2.9% year - on - year respectively. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - term view and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4] Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - $3500/oz. The easing of international trade and the improvement of financial markets weaken the safe - haven demand for gold, but the restructuring of the international trade currency system and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations continue to support the price. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - $3500/oz in the short term, and the bottom of the price correction has been rising since the end of June. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - term view and participate in gold and silver trading with medium - to - low positions [6] II. Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold TD, and gold and silver ETF holdings [8][10] III. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - The US Q2 GDP growth rate is 3.3% on a quarter - on - quarter annualized basis, higher than the previous report and economists' expectations. Fed Governor Cook sues Trump for the right to remove her. Governor Waller supports an interest - rate cut next month and further cuts in the next three to six months. The ECB policymakers are divided on inflation expectations in July. The EU proposes to cancel import tariffs on US industrial products in exchange for lower US tariffs on European cars. Russian oil exports to India are expected to increase in September [18][19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The international trade and monetary system restructuring and reserve diversification needs will support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's reforms and economic situation will support the medium - term bull market. However, high price and P/E ratio lead to increased volatility. It is expected that London gold will run in the range in the short - term and then break through. Investors are advised to hold a long - term view with medium - low positions, and short - term traders can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunities [4][5]. - In the short - term, due to factors such as inflation data and Fed officials' attitudes, gold's volatility has increased, but the medium - term upward trend remains good. London gold may fluctuate widely between $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise again [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Precious Metals Market Analysis - **Intraday Market**: In July, US overall CPI was lower than expected, but core CPI was higher. The US Treasury Secretary called for a 50BP rate cut in September. The Fed's rate - cut expectation pushed the dollar index down to around 97.6 and London gold rebounded to $3375 per ounce. However, two Fed officials' cautious attitudes led to a gold price correction. Trump's new policy boosted gold's safe - haven demand. Gold's volatility increased, and it's recommended to trade with a long - term view and medium - low positions. This week, focus on the US - Russia summit, US inflation data, Fed officials' statements, and China's economic data [4]. - **Domestic Market Data**: Shanghai Gold Index closed at 780.46, up 0.13%; Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9305, down 0.13%; Gold T+D closed at 775.06, up 0.05%; Silver T+D closed at 9270, down 0.09% [5]. - **Medium - term Market**: Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. International trade situation and US fiscal expansion weakened gold's demand, but Trump's new policy and geopolitical risks supported it. Fed's rate - cut expectation rose due to the nomination of new Fed governors and a weak employment market. Speculative funds flowed into silver and platinum in June, and silver prices fluctuated in July. The gold - silver ratio in London stabilized after falling to 86. It's expected that London gold will continue to run in the range in the short - term [5]. 3.2. Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The report provides six charts including Shanghai precious metals futures indices, London precious metals spot prices, basis of Shanghai futures indices to Shanghai Gold TD, precious metals ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7]. 3.3. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - **Geopolitical Events**: Trump threatened Putin over the Ukraine issue and may hold a US - Russia - Ukraine summit. The US Treasury Secretary said sanctions might increase if the US - Russia summit goes badly and called on Europe to impose sanctions [8]. - **Monetary Policy Expectations**: After US July inflation data, the market thought the probability of a 25BP rate cut in September was 99.9%. The Treasury Secretary thought a 50BP cut was possible, and Trump was narrowing down the candidates for the next Fed Chair [8]. - **Fed Officials' Views**: Chicago Fed President Goolsbee was worried about inflation and labor market assumptions, and needed multiple months of good inflation data to support rate cuts. Atlanta Fed President Bostic thought the job market was close to full - employment, and the Fed should avoid policy volatility [9]. - **Economic Policy**: The US Treasury Secretary said the 15% revenue - handing - over agreement for semiconductor sales to China might expand to other industries and denied national security concerns [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold's volatility is rising, while its medium - term upward trend remains intact. London gold may trade in a wide range between $3,120 - $3,500 per ounce before rising again. Investors are advised to maintain a long - term view and participate in trading with a medium - to - low position [4]. - The restructuring of the international trade and monetary system and the demand for reserve diversification will support the long - term bull market in gold. Trump's reforms leading to economic weakness and central bank interest rate cut expectations will support the medium - term bull market. However, high price and P/E ratio mean increased volatility. In the third quarter, attention should be paid to the impact of US economic growth and inflation on Fed policy. It is expected that London gold will continue to trade in a range in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 贵金属行情及展望 3.1.1 Intraday Market - Due to Trump's threat to sue Fed Chairman Powell and US July CPI being lower than expected, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation cooled, pushing the US dollar index down to around 98 and London gold rebounding above $3,350 per ounce. The strong rise of the Chinese stock market made silver with higher industrial attributes relatively stronger. The US government's downplaying of the Russia - US summit reduced the pressure on the precious metal market from the cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Trump's new policies boosted gold's safe - haven demand. London gold may trade in a wide range and then rise again. Investors are advised to maintain a long - term view and participate in trading with a medium - to - low position [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been trading in a wide range between $3,100 - $3,500 per ounce. The cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill weakened gold's safe - haven and allocation demand, but Trump's new policy uncertainty, geopolitical risks, Fed new governor nomination, and deteriorating US job market increased the Fed's interest rate cut expectation. In June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and in July, silver prices fluctuated greatly due to anti - involution policy expectations. The London gold - silver ratio rebounded slightly after falling to 86. It is judged that the long - term bull market of gold will be supported by the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system, and the medium - term bull market will be supported by Trump's reforms and interest rate cut expectations. However, high prices also mean increased volatility. In the short term, London gold is expected to continue trading in a range. Investors are advised to maintain a long - term view, and short - term investors can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunities [5]. 3.2 贵金属市场相关图表 - The report provides six charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indexes, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai gold TD, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7]. 3.3 主要宏观事件/数据 - The US Treasury Secretary said that US trade officials will meet with Chinese officials in the next two to three months. There are still several major trade agreements to be completed, but India is being difficult in negotiations. If a lower - court case goes to the Supreme Court, it will be difficult for the court to rule against the Trump administration [8]. - US July inflation was moderate, increasing investors' bets on a September Fed interest rate cut. July CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year (lower than expected). Core CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month (the largest increase since January) and 3.1% year - on - year (higher than June) [8]. - Kansas City Fed President Schmid said that the limited impact of tariffs on inflation should be seen as a sign of proper monetary policy calibration, not an opportunity for interest rate cuts. Trump is considering suing Fed Chairman Powell for mismanagement of the Fed's renovation project [9]. - The White House downplayed expectations of a quick Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement from the Trump - Putin summit. European leaders, Ukrainian President Zelensky, Trump, and US Vice - President Vance will participate in a high - level video conference. Putin informed North Korean leader Kim Jong - un about the upcoming meeting with Trump [9].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bonds and Container Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index) [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of trade policies and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut support the gold price, while the narrowing of the US trade deficit in June and the service PMI above the boom-bust line support the US dollar index and weaken the safe-haven demand for gold. The London gold price continues to trade in the range of $3345 - $3390 per ounce. The gold's safe-haven demand is greatly boosted by Trump's 2.0 new policy, and the London gold may rise again after wide-range consolidation between $3120 - $3500 per ounce. It is recommended that investors maintain a long position mindset and participate in trading with medium to low positions [4]. - Since late April, London gold has been in a wide-range oscillation between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The cooling of international trade situation and the US fiscal expansion bill weaken the safe-haven and allocation demand for gold, but the uncertainty of Trump's new policy and high international geopolitical risks continue to support the gold price. The safe-haven and reserve diversification demand brought by the reorganization of the international trade and monetary system will continue to support the long-term bull market of gold, and the economic growth weakness and the expectation of central bank interest rate cuts caused by Trump's multiple reforms will support the medium-term bull market. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate and consolidate in the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce in the short term. Investors are advised to maintain a long position mindset and participate in trading with medium to low positions, and short-minded traders can pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of "going long on gold and shorting silver" after the upward momentum of silver fades [6]. Group 4: Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - Trump's tariff threats on drugs, semiconductors, and India, and the nomination of new Fed governors, along with trade policy uncertainty and Fed rate cut expectations, support the gold price. Meanwhile, the narrowing of the US trade deficit in June and the service PMI above the boom-bust line support the US dollar index and weaken the safe-haven demand for gold. The London gold price continues to trade in the range of $3345 - $3390 per ounce. The expectation of the Fed restarting the rate cut process drives the global stock market and industrial commodities to run strongly, and the London gold-silver ratio slightly drops to 89.2. It is recommended that investors maintain a long position mindset and participate in trading with medium to low positions [4]. Medium-Term Market - Since late April, London gold has been in a wide-range oscillation between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The cooling of international trade situation and the US fiscal expansion bill weaken the safe-haven and allocation demand for gold, but the uncertainty of Trump's new policy and high international geopolitical risks continue to support the gold price. In June, speculative funds flooded into the relatively underperforming silver and platinum markets, and the gold-silver ratio has basically returned to the level before April. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate and consolidate in the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce in the short term. Investors are advised to maintain a long position mindset and participate in trading with medium to low positions, and short-minded traders can pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of "going long on gold and shorting silver" after the upward momentum of silver fades [6]. Group 5: Domestic Precious Metals Market Conditions | Contract | Pre - closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold Index | 784.16 | 787.42 | 784.30 | 785.36 | 0.15% | 433,180 | - 4596 | | Shanghai Silver Index | 9,093 | 9,217 | 9,113 | 9,199 | 1.17% | 789,871 | 5,633 | | Gold T + D | 779.92 | 781.70 | 775.17 | 779.63 | - 0.04% | 216,324 | 7,234 | | Silver T + D | 9,052 | 9,168 | 9,045 | 9,150 | 1.08% | 3,470,566 | 27,222 | [5] Group 6: Main Macro Events/Data 1. In June, the US trade deficit narrowed by 16.0% to $60.2 billion, and the trade deficit with China decreased by about one-third to $9.5 billion, the lowest since February 2004. In July, the US service industry business activity was basically flat, orders hardly changed, employment weakened further, and input costs rose at the largest rate in nearly three years, highlighting the continuous drag of tariff policy uncertainty on enterprises [18]. 2. Trump will decide on the replacement for Fed governor Kugler before the weekend and has narrowed the list of candidates for the next Fed chair to four, including current National Economic Council Director Hassett and former Fed governor Warsh. Treasury Secretary Bessent is excluded because he wants to continue in his current position [18]. 3. The US will first impose a "small tariff" on drug imports and then increase the rate in about a year. Trump will announce tariffs on semiconductors and chips in about a week. Given India's continued purchase of Russian oil, Trump will "significantly" increase the tariffs on goods imported from India from the current 25% within the next 24 hours [18].