Core Points - President Trump announced that there will be no tariffs on imported gold bars, leading to a significant drop in international gold prices, which fell over 2% on the same day, marking the largest decline in nearly three months [1][2] - The recent volatility in gold prices was influenced by the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and the potential impact on the gold market, with futures contracts experiencing a nearly 2.5% drop, falling below $3,400 per ounce [2][3] - The market is closely monitoring upcoming U.S. inflation reports, as a weaker-than-expected employment report has increased bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [4] Market Reactions - Following the announcement of no tariffs, gold prices initially surged to a record high of $3,534.10 per ounce before retreating as the White House planned to clarify tariff-related misinformation [2] - The COMEX inventory levels are currently at 86% of open contracts, significantly higher than the normal range of 40%-45%, indicating no liquidity issues in the market [3] - Analysts suggest that the elimination of tariff uncertainty may lead to a more bearish outlook for gold prices, especially if upcoming inflation data exceeds expectations [4] Trade and Economic Factors - The ongoing trade tensions and recent tariff announcements by the U.S. government are expected to influence gold prices, with the market reacting to the potential for new tariffs on various goods, including pharmaceuticals [4] - The anticipated meeting between President Trump and President Putin regarding the Ukraine conflict is also seen as a factor that could affect gold prices, as hopes for a ceasefire may reduce safe-haven demand for gold [5][6]

Core Insights - As of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $32,922 billion, a decrease of $252 billion from the end of June, with gold reserves at 73.96 million ounces [1] - The increase in the US dollar index in July, influenced by macroeconomic data and monetary policy expectations, led to fluctuations in global financial asset prices, impacting the valuation of China's foreign exchange reserves [1] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for the ninth consecutive month, maintaining a steady pace of gold accumulation [1] Economic Context - The National Foreign Exchange Administration believes that China's economic fundamentals remain strong, with advantages and resilience that support the stability of foreign exchange reserves [2] - The ongoing uncertainty in global trade and geopolitical factors is expected to drive central banks and investors to continue increasing their gold investments, providing ongoing support for gold prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of tariffs is seen as a negative signal for emerging market arbitrage trades, particularly affecting currencies in Colombia, Brazil, and Chile, which have all depreciated by over 1.2% [1] Group 1 - Mark McCormick, the head of foreign exchange strategy at TD Securities, indicates that the tariff announcement is not favorable for overbought emerging market arbitrage trades [1] - Currencies in Colombia, Brazil, and Chile have experienced a decline of more than 1.2% following the tariff news [1] Group 2 - Brad Bechtel, global head of foreign exchange at Jefferies, suggests that the current situation remains uncertain and that Trump's letters may be aimed at facilitating a new round of negotiations [1] - Bechtel anticipates further announcements related to tariffs in the coming weeks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dilemma faced by an individual regarding whether to sell gold holdings for immediate profit or to hold on for potential future gains, highlighting the volatility of gold prices and the influence of global economic factors on investment decisions [3][5][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Over the past decade, gold prices have experienced significant fluctuations, with a notable increase from around 260 yuan per gram to peaks of over 830 yuan, followed by a decline to approximately 732 yuan [3][5]. - The volatility of gold prices has been around 20% over the past five years, indicating substantial risk and potential profit in gold investments [5]. Group 2: Economic Influences - Global economic conditions, including U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy, inflation expectations, and trade dynamics, heavily impact gold prices [5]. - Increased inflation pressures have made gold an attractive safe-haven asset for investors, contributing to recent price increases [5]. Group 3: Investment Dilemma - The individual is torn between selling gold for a guaranteed profit of over 150,000 yuan or holding out for potential further appreciation, reflecting a common struggle among investors [6][11]. - The advice from family members represents contrasting investment philosophies: one advocating for immediate cashing out and the other suggesting patience for long-term gains [6][8]. Group 4: Long-term vs Short-term Investment - The article raises questions about whether gold should be viewed as a long-term asset or a short-term trading tool, emphasizing the need for investors to understand their risk tolerance [8]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggests that future gold market performance will be influenced by ongoing political and economic uncertainties, complicating investment decisions [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's assessment of the global trade situation is relatively moderate [1] Group 1 - The Bank of England's committee member, Taylor, expresses a cautious outlook on global trade dynamics [1]

Market Overview - Since April 2, the S&P 500 index has declined by approximately 7% [5] - The recent rebound in the U.S. stock market driven by the suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration was short-lived, with all three major indices falling over 1.5% last week [5] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) dropped nearly 30% in the past week but remains above historical averages, indicating ongoing investor anxiety [5] Employment and Economic Indicators - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to a two-month low, suggesting stability in the labor market for April [3] - However, manufacturing firms are reportedly beginning to reduce working hours, with the Philadelphia Fed indicating a sharp contraction in average weekly hours for factories in the central U.S. [3] - Economists are preparing for a potential rise in the unemployment rate in the coming months, particularly concerned about small businesses that are significantly impacted by tariff policy uncertainties [3] Federal Reserve's Stance - Some Federal Reserve policymakers are worried about the imminent impact on employment and are preparing for potential rapid interest rate cuts [3] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that tariffs could exacerbate inflation, which may force a reevaluation of the U.S. interest rate strategy, but he emphasized the Fed's ability to wait for clearer conditions before making decisions [3] Market Sentiment and Predictions - A recent Bank of America fund manager survey revealed a rapid shift to pessimism regarding the U.S. stock market, with 36% reducing their U.S. stock holdings in April [6] - The sentiment level is reported to be the fifth lowest in history, with cash holdings among fund managers rising to 4.8%, the highest level since the COVID-19 pandemic began [6] - Global economic growth expectations have fallen to a 30-year low, with 49% of respondents believing a hard landing is the most likely outcome for the global economy in the next 12 months [6] Corporate Earnings Outlook - Market forecasts for S&P 500 earnings growth have declined, with expected growth of 9.2% by 2025, significantly lower than the 14% estimated at the beginning of the year [6] - Major companies such as Alphabet, Tesla, Boeing, IBM, Merck, Intel, and Procter & Gamble are set to report earnings in the coming week, drawing significant attention from investors [6] - Jefferies has downgraded its target for the S&P 500 index from 6000 to 5300, reflecting a bleak outlook for corporate earnings [6] Trade Negotiations and Market Impact - Ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and its trade partners remain a focal point, with the potential for a market rebound if an agreement is reached [7] - The longer the negotiations take, the greater the impact on the economy and stock market [7] - The recent decline in U.S. Treasury yields may provide some relief to the market, influenced by comments from the Boston Fed President regarding potential market interventions [7]