预测后期走势 短期（未来1-2周）：黄金预计会继续在 4000美元 以上的区间内宽幅震荡。方向的选择需要新的催化剂，重点关注美联储官员的讲话以及关键经济数据的发 布（如零售销售、PPI等）。4000美元整数关口是近期的关键支撑，守住则多头还有反攻机会；反之，若有效跌破，可能会进一步下探。 突破策略：如果金价有效跌破4000美元的强劲支撑，短期下跌空间可能会打开，届时可考虑反弹时轻仓跟进空单。反之，若金价强势突破4100美元，则可能 引发进一步的上行。 仓位与风控：在方向不明朗的震荡市中，建议轻仓操作。 关注中长线： 为何关注长期？ 全球央行的持续购金趋势未变，这为金价提供了坚实的结构性强支撑。同时，地缘政治风险以及全球宏观秩序重构带来的不确定性，也让 黄金的长期避险和对冲价值凸显。 如何操作：可以考虑采取 "逢低分批买入" 的策略。不要试图去猜市场的最低点，而是当金价出现显著回调（例如接近或低于4000美元）时，分批建立仓 位。黄金在投资组合中配置中等个位数比例（例如5%左右）是合适的。 第一金杨生，DYJPPLI，香港第一金，第一金官网，第一金平台，第一金代理 关键点位与策略： 阻力位：关注 4070美元 ...

北京时间11月20日21:30，被美国政府停摆推迟近两月的 9 月非农报告正式公布。美国劳工统计局数据显示，美国9月非农就业人数增加11.9万，远好于此前 市场预计的5万。此外，9月美国失业率继续上升，环比上升0.1个百分点至4.4%，高于预期和前值4.3%，主要原因是黑人失业率上升，部分原因是劳动参与 率意外升至62.4%，9月失业率创下2021年11月以来的最高水平。 美国9月非农报告的发布，强化了美联储在10月会议上的判断，投资者调降了对美联储12月降息的押注，市场数据显示，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率已 经降至39%左右。这份被市场称为"矛盾"的9月非农报告，让黄金承受压力，上行空间受到明显限制。数据一出，现货黄金短线下行34美元，金价从4107美 元/盎司水平快速走下至4072美元/盎司区间水平，后收复失地。 市场分析认为，黄金作为最佳避险资产，投资者合理配置黄金可以降低投资组合的风险。短期内，美国9月非农数据好坏参半为投资者带来独特的黄金投资 机会；长期来看，美联储降息周期尚未结束、地缘局势风险不断、全球央行购金势头不减和黄金投资需求持续上涨等，都将支撑金价上行。总之，眼下正是 布局黄金市场的 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the release of the September non-farm payroll report, which shows an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 50,000 [1][3] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to an increase in the unemployment rate among Black Americans and an unexpected rise in the labor participation rate to 62.4% [1][3] - The report has led to a reduction in market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut now at around 39% [3] Group 2 - The mixed signals from the September non-farm data have created unique investment opportunities in gold, as it is considered a safe-haven asset [3] - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are expected, but the long-term bullish trend remains strong, supported by ongoing demand for gold from global central banks and geopolitical risks [8] - Investors are advised to adjust their investment strategies based on their risk preferences and economic capabilities, considering opportunities to enter the gold market during price corrections [3][8] Group 3 - Different investment strategies should be employed based on the investor's goals; conservative investors may prefer physical gold, while those looking for short-term trading might opt for spot gold trading [5] - A diversified investment approach combining spot gold with 10%-20% physical gold can help manage liquidity and risk [5] - It is essential for investors to start with small amounts, choose suitable gold investment products, and utilize proper trading techniques to mitigate risks [8]

Group 1 - The current spot gold price is around $4043.95 per ounce, with a slight decline of 0.51% [1] - Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, there has been a significant shift in the international economic landscape, leading to a surge in central banks' gold reserves [2] - The average gold reserve ratio for global central banks is approximately 20%, while China's is only 8%, indicating a potential increase in gold purchases by central banks aiming for a target of 30% [2] Group 2 - Gold ETF holdings have seen a remarkable increase of 17% this year, reflecting a shift in investor strategies towards hard assets amid high inflation [2][3] - The continuous rise in gold ETF holdings demonstrates strong market interest from both institutional and retail investors in gold as a valuable investment [3] - By 2026, the market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will likely maintain a rate-cutting cycle, which could further support gold prices due to low interest rates and a weak dollar [3] Group 3 - The current technical analysis of gold indicates a weak trend, with moving averages pointing downwards and a potential strategy of shorting before a rebound [4] - Key support levels are identified around $4025, with resistance levels between $4050 and $4100, suggesting a cautious trading approach [4] - Market participants are advised to monitor the strength of the European session to inform trading decisions in the U.S. session [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing interest in gold investment among stock investors due to the current economic turbulence and the unique advantages gold offers as a safe-haven asset [1]. Group 1: Advantages of Gold Investment - Gold allows for two-way trading, enabling profits in both rising and falling markets, unlike stocks which only profit in uptrends [2]. - The international gold market operates 24 hours, accommodating the fragmented schedules of working individuals, unlike the fixed trading hours of stock markets [2]. - Gold is a global asset with price transparency influenced by macroeconomic factors, making it less susceptible to manipulation compared to individual stocks, which can be affected by unpredictable events [2]. Group 2: Gold Trading Platforms - Leading gold trading platform, LPM, holds a prestigious AA license from the Hong Kong Gold Exchange and has a strong reputation for compliance and customer satisfaction, offering a stable trading environment and timely market updates [3]. - Another platform, HMY, emphasizes low-cost trading with transparent fees below industry averages, enhancing investor cost efficiency [5]. - Other platforms like EGY and YF provide diverse trading tools and professional market analysis, catering to both novice and experienced investors [6][7]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to start with small amounts and plan their trading funds according to their income, avoiding impulsive decisions to achieve steady asset growth in the gold market [8]. - LPM is currently offering a promotional bonus of up to $10,000 and a rebate on spreads, which can significantly reduce trading costs for investors [8].

注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 平安证券指出，黄金市场受降息预期摇摆影响呈现震荡走势，短期金价或因预期不明朗维持较强震荡。 长期来看，美国债务问题未解，美元信用走弱的主线逻辑持续，叠加央行购金及黄金投资需求增长，贵 金属价格重心或继续上移。海外宏观不确定性延续，中期黄金避险属性仍处于放大阶段；长期特朗普上 任后，美元信用走弱趋势愈加清晰，黄金货币属性加速凸显，持续看好黄金中长期走势。 中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金票ETF（517400）。 ...

Core Viewpoint - On November 21, shareholders of Lion Rock Holdings (02562) deposited shares worth HKD 428 million into Citibank, representing 15.16% of the total shares [1] Group 1: Company Actions - Lion Rock Holdings announced plans to issue convertible bonds with a principal amount of USD 35 million, with an initial conversion price set at HKD 11.96 per share [1] - The net proceeds from the bond issuance are expected to be approximately HKD 260 million, which will be allocated for investments in gold, gold-backed, and gold-related products [1]

Market Overview - Gold experienced significant volatility, initially breaking down but then rebounding sharply by $80, returning to $4100 before adjusting again, indicating ongoing competition between bulls and bears [1][4] - The market is expected to continue a sideways trend next week, with adjustments anticipated within the range of $4040 to $4110, and potential resistance at $4110 and $4142 [4][5] Economic Factors - A large-scale stimulus plan from Japan has significantly impacted the market, leading to a strong dollar and intervention from the Bank of Japan, while geopolitical tensions related to Russia and Ukraine have contributed to gold's downward movement [6] - In the U.S., manufacturing PMI and consumer confidence indices have both declined to new lows, alongside a record high in white-collar unemployment, suggesting a weakening economy and increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which is favorable for gold [7] Upcoming Data - Key economic data is expected next week, including U.S. retail sales for September, which may reflect the strength of the U.S. economy and could impact stock and bond markets [8] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book will also be released, providing insights into economic conditions as the market anticipates discussions around potential rate cuts in December [8] Investment Strategy - The current market conditions necessitate careful judgment of direction and trends, with a focus on entry and exit points for investments in gold [8] - A well-established trading team claims to achieve a high accuracy rate of 85% or more, emphasizing the importance of risk management and maximizing profit opportunities [8]

来源：中国黄金网 如果60天线支持有效，反弹目标为4040~4050美元/盎司、4100~4140美元/盎司区间：如果60日均线能守住，国际金价短期可能先反弹到过去区间 4040~4050美元/盎司；要是能站稳这个区间，再往上就会冲击日云区顶4100~4140美元/盎司区间，但这个位置压力不小，能不能突破还要看后续信号。 对于刚接触黄金投资的朋友来说，近期国际金价的走势可能让人摸不着头脑——10月前一路狂奔，10月中旬以后则一路回调，11月虽有反弹但力度很弱， 后续还会不会跌、什么时候能涨，成了大家最关心的问题。其实只要理清核心逻辑，就能看懂国际金价的后续走向。 当前国际金价的核心现状：反弹无力，短期仍有下跌压力。 10月中旬开始，国际金价进入回调通道，主要是因为市场的避险情绪降温了。虽然11月有过一次技术性反弹，但没能突破10月跌浪菲波61.8％关键阻力 位，还很快回落至菲波38.2％下方，这说明反弹缺乏足够的资金和信心支撑，下跌趋势暂时没有被打破。 从技术层面看，有3个信号值得注意。一是多个周期的指数平滑异同移动平均线指标（MACD）指标呈现"死亡交叉"，这是偏向下跌的信号；二是国际金 价已经跌破了5日、 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS has raised its gold price target for mid-2026 from $4,200 to $4,500 per ounce, indicating a potential upside of over 12% from current levels [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - Gold has been one of the best-performing asset classes in 2025, with an increase of nearly 60% year-to-date, stabilizing above $4,000 per ounce [3]. - In October, gold prices reached a historical high of nearly $4,400 per ounce before retreating below $4,000 [3]. Group 2: Factors Driving Price Increase - Key factors supporting the rise in gold prices include expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and declining real yields, which make gold more attractive as a non-yielding asset [5]. - Geopolitical uncertainties and changes in the U.S. domestic policy environment, particularly related to upcoming midterm elections and increasing fiscal risks, are also significant supports for gold prices [5]. Group 3: Changes in Demand Structure - The demand structure for gold is evolving, with increased participation from institutional investors and notable purchases by central banks [7]. - UBS estimates that central bank gold purchases will reach approximately 900 tons in 2026, significantly higher than the annual average of 450 to 500 tons from 2010 to 2021 [7]. Group 4: Institutional Outlook on Gold - Multiple Wall Street institutions, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, are optimistic about gold prices, with Goldman predicting a price of $4,900 by the end of 2026 and JPMorgan projecting a range of $4,975 to $5,062 per ounce [12][13]. Group 5: Strategies for Ordinary Investors - UBS recommends that ordinary investors allocate around 5% of their total assets to gold to enhance portfolio diversification and provide a buffer against systemic risks [16]. - The firm suggests a strategy of buying on dips, indicating that investor allocation to gold remains insufficient [16]. Group 6: Future Price Predictions - UBS anticipates that gold prices may consolidate around $4,300 after the U.S. midterm elections in 2026, with potential to reach $4,900 if political and financial risks escalate [18]. - The trend of central banks and investors purchasing gold is likely to continue, reinforcing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset amid increasing global economic and political uncertainties [18].