今年六月以来，中美关系出现显著回暖迹象。先是美中领导人进行了长达90分钟的通话，特朗普随后高调宣布"取得了非常积极的成果"，并欣然接受访华邀 请。紧接着，双方经贸团队在伦敦会谈，就贸易共识框架达成一致。最终，特朗普在6月26日单方面宣布"已与中国签署贸易相关协议"。这一系列事件标志 着特朗普政府的对华策略从单纯的威逼转向了更具策略性的谈判，从而有效地管控了双边关系，也为此次访华行程奠定了坚实基础。 媒体报道显示，特朗普此访有两大特殊之处： 八年之后，特朗普或将再次踏上中国土地。这一消息由《日经亚洲》等多家媒体率先报道，据称美国官员正紧锣密鼓地筹备其访华行程，时间点距离特朗普 单方面宣布中美贸易协议达成不到72小时。 此次访华，并非例行公事，其代表团构成及特殊安排已预示着特朗普绝非空手而来。 特朗普政府的对华政策，自上任伊始便充满戏剧性张力。初入白宫，他豪言百日内访华，然而一系列强硬举措却令访华计划胎死腹中，中方对此未予回应。 其后，特朗普政府步步升级，以贸易战为首的施压手段，企图迫使中国在经贸等领域做出让步，一时间中美关系剑拔弩张。但随着时间的推移，美国政府逐 渐意识到强硬路线的失效，中国不会轻易屈服，战略调 ...

法国总统马克龙表示，法国希望达成一个"快速、务实"的贸易协议，但不会接受不平衡的条款。 随着7月9日欧美贸易谈判最后期限临近，久拖未决的贸易协议成为日前结束的欧盟峰会核心议题之一。 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩在峰会期间说，欧盟已收到美国就关税问题提出的"最新文件"，但她并未透露 美方具体要求。 分析人士认为，目前欧美分歧依然较大，即使双方能够按期达成协议，今后在执行层面仍将面临不少阻 碍。围绕短期谈判策略、整体让步空间和长远应对战略，欧盟官员的一些表态反映出多重考量。 风险抉择：要更快还是更好的协议 此次欧盟峰会期间，欧盟领导人公开表态均寻求与美达成贸易协议，但侧重点有所不同。 作为出口大国，德国总理默茨是支持速签协议的主要声音之一。他说："我们距离7月9日只剩不到两 周。根本不可能在这段时间内达成一个复杂的贸易协议。"他认为，从化工、钢铁到汽车，众多行业都 已经承受重压，企业岌岌可危。"我们必须尽快找到解决方案。" 然而，欧盟也担忧仓促推进协议可能造成利益严重失衡，即协议仅对美方有利而欧盟吃大亏。冯德莱恩 表示，欧盟正在评估美方最新提议。"我们的立场很明确：我们愿意达成协议，同时也在为无法达成令 人满意的协议做 ...

Group 1 - The "2025 China Enterprises Going Global Summit" was held in Shenzhen, focusing on providing a high-end platform for Chinese companies to address challenges in global expansion and explore collaborative transformation paths [1] - The summit was co-hosted by the Global Council for Chinese Enterprises Going Global, emphasizing the need for dialogue on rules and resource connections amid deep restructuring of global industrial chains [1] Group 2 - Former Romanian Prime Minister Peter Roman highlighted the transition between two global orders, indicating a period of governance challenges and uncertainty regarding the future of the world order [3] - Roman criticized the instability and lack of fairness in the current multilateral economic order, suggesting that it is merely a series of expedient arrangements rather than a well-designed system [3] - He pointed out that the neglect of multilateralism by governments, particularly the U.S., has led to the disregard of international organizations like the UN and WTO, which could result in increased global chaos and danger [3] Group 3 - Roman noted the growing sense of division in unequal societies, the resurgence of trade wars, and the intensification of geopolitical economic confrontations, particularly exacerbated by the age of AI [4] - He emphasized that the uncertainties brought by trade wars are damaging investment projects and are unsustainable, as they create barriers rather than fostering cooperation [4]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the trade war will lead to stagflation tendencies in the second half of 2025, with global GDP growth expected to slow to an annualized rate of 1.4% and core inflation rising to 3.4% due to inflation driven by U.S. tariffs [2][3] - The commodity production sector is expected to be the first to feel the impact of economic slowdown, with global factory output and capital spending projected to contract [2] - Despite rising inflation in the U.S., lower-than-expected growth is likely to drive moderate deflation in other regions, with the Eurozone's core inflation rate expected to fall below 2% [2] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley assesses that the global GDP growth has an upward risk bias for the second half of 2025, driven by a positive evaluation of the private sector's health, a supportive financial environment, and expected fiscal policy easing [3] - The risk of a significant growth surprise is skewed to the downside, with a 40% probability of the U.S. entering a recession, driven by concerns over household purchasing power and low corporate sentiment [3] - The behavior of a still-healthy corporate sector, particularly avoiding layoffs, is crucial for maintaining U.S. economic expansion, although this may come at the cost of profit margin compression [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Kashkari emphasizes the need for more time to assess the impact of the trade war, suggesting that its effects may be delayed or less severe than anticipated [1] Group 1 - Focus should be on actual inflation and economic data rather than commitments to a loose policy path [1] - The potential delay in the effects of tariffs is a critical consideration for economic policy [1]

美国各季度经济增长率美联社 据美联社报道，当地时间6月26日，美国商务部报告称，由于美国总统特朗普的贸易战扰乱商业活动，美国国内生产总值（GDP）在今年一季度环比按年率 计算萎缩0.5%，较该部门前两次公布的估值明显下调。 分析认为，造成经济萎缩的重要原因，是美国企业和家庭赶在关税上涨前大幅增加进口，从而造成国内生产销售减少。美商务部4月初次估值预计第一季度 经济将萎缩0.3%，5月将该数据修正为萎缩0.2%。经济学家们曾预测，商务部的第三次也是最后一次估算值将不会有任何改变。 美商务部数据显示，今年一季度美国GDP出现下滑，扭转了2024年最后一个季度2.4%的增长，标志着该国经济三年来首次出现萎缩。其中，美国进口增长 37.9%，为2020年以来最快增速，拖累GDP下降近4.7个百分点。 同时，美国一季度消费者支出也急剧放缓，仅增长0.5%，低于去年第四季度4%的增速，较美商务部此前预期大幅下调。占美国经济总量约70%的个人消费 支出对一季度GDP的贡献也下调至约0.3个百分点。 衡量美国经济潜在实力的一个GDP分项数据以1.9%的年率增长。这一数字低于2024年第四季度的2.9%，也低于商务部此前预估的 ...

新华财经北京6月27日电在日前于荷兰海牙举行的北约峰会上，西班牙拒绝按美国要求提高本国国防支出水平。美国总统特朗普回应称要在贸易领域让西班 牙弥补，西班牙首相桑切斯26日则在出席欧盟峰会期间反击，美国政府当前的贸易政策不公平且充斥单边主义，欧洲乃至全球正遭遇一场贸易战。 在北约峰会上，成员国承诺在2035年前逐渐将本国国防支出在国内生产总值（GDP）中的占比提高至5%。在26日的白宫例行记者会上，白宫新闻秘书卡罗 琳·莱维特将上述成果称为"对北约集体防御能力最显著的增强"，并强调"得益于此，美国将承担更轻的负担"。 然而，西班牙是个特例。该国首相桑切斯虽然在包含上述内容的"海牙峰会宣言"上签了字，但仍坚持把本国国防支出维持在当前计划水平，即占GDP的 2.1%。 特朗普继续他对西班牙的指责："他们想稍微搭个便车，但他们必须在贸易上补偿我们，因为我不会让这（搭便车行为）发生。" 这是2024年4月17日拍摄的西班牙首相桑切斯。新华社记者孟鼎博摄 《纽约时报》报道，美国正与欧盟进行贸易谈判，并未与作为欧盟成员国的西班牙一对一谈判，尚不清楚特朗普如何在贸易上"惩罚"西班牙。埃菲社报道， 美国政府正在与布鲁塞尔谈判一 ...

据中国新闻网报道，当地时间2月27日，美国总统特朗普再次对中国全商品增加10%的关税制裁，3月4 日正式生效。这意味着特朗普上台不足2个月时间，就已经对中国发起两次关税制裁，额外加征总额度 达到20%。在贸易战的持续交锋中，中国手中的反制牌一直备受关注。此前，稀土出口管制彰显了中国 在关键资源领域的话语权。如今，一项比稀土技术门槛更高的产业，正成为中国反击美贸易战的又一张 有力底牌，那便是无人机产业。 美国农民使用大疆无人机进行播种（资料图） 2023年至2024年期间，中国商务部及海关总署动作频频，发布了一系列无人机出口管制措施，并于特定 时间正式实施。2024年9月1日起正式施行的规定明确指出，最大持续功率超过16千瓦，专门用于特定无 人驾驶航空飞行器或无人驾驶飞艇的航空发动机，未经许可不得出口。还有满足一定技术指标的专门用 于特定无人驾驶航空飞行器或无人驾驶飞艇的载荷，像具有特定波长范围、瞬时视场角的红外成像设 备；作用距离大于5千米的特定合成孔径雷达；能在高于55摄氏度环境中稳定工作，具备多项特性的用 于目标指示的激光器；有着特定航向精度、姿态精度和分辨率的惯性测量设备等，都被纳入管制范围。 专门用于 ...

Group 1: Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - The threat of additional tariffs by Trump has led to increased caution among key U.S. trading partners regarding new trade agreements, creating a stalemate that could negatively impact global stock markets, particularly tech giants [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce is expected to release final investigation results on tariffs related to national security sectors, including chips, pharmaceuticals, and industrial metals, under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act [2] - Countries like India are taking a hard stance, unwilling to sign agreements that do not resolve their concerns regarding export tariffs and reciprocal tariffs [6][8] Group 2: Impact on Global Markets - The MSCI global index reached a historical high due to easing geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, but uncertainty surrounding trade agreements poses a risk to market sentiment [1] - The ongoing trade negotiations, particularly regarding the automotive sector, are critical as they represent a significant portion of trade deficits and economic stability for countries like Japan [5] Group 3: Specific Tariff Details - A list of tariffs under investigation includes automobiles (25%), steel and aluminum (50%), and various other sectors such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, with investigations initiated on specific dates [2] - The potential for new tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductor imports is particularly concerning for India, as these sectors are vital to its economy and export capabilities [8]

Trade Situation - The US has initiated a full-fledged trade war, imposing a 130% tariff on Chinese imports, raising the global import tariff rate to 25.5%, the highest since the 1890s [1][10][13] - Global export losses due to the trade war are projected to reach $480 billion by 2025, significantly impacting major economies like China and the EU [1][14][16] Global Economic Outlook - Global GDP growth is expected to decline to 2.3% in 2025, the lowest since the pandemic, with the US and Eurozone both forecasted to grow at 0.8% [2][17][32] - Emerging markets, excluding China, are projected to grow at 3.5%, with some countries benefiting from trade agreements and import diversification [2][4] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation in the US is anticipated to peak at 4.3% in 2025, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates until October before cutting them to 4% by year-end [3][41][50] - The European Central Bank is expected to lower rates to 1.5% as inflation pressures ease, contrasting with the US's inflationary challenges [3][51] Corporate Strategies - Companies are adopting short-term strategies such as frontloading imports and diversifying supply chains to mitigate tariff impacts, with about two-thirds of US firms likely to pass tariff costs onto consumers [4][11][24] - Global corporate bankruptcies are projected to rise by 7% in 2025, with significant increases in the US and Western Europe [4][11] Capital Markets - Capital markets have reacted negatively to the trade war, with expectations of further declines in bond yields and volatility in equity markets [5][11][12] - The mispricing of Trump's second term policies has led to a risk-off sentiment in the markets, although a recovery is anticipated by year-end [5][11][12] Regional Economic Projections - The US is expected to experience a mild recession in 2025, with GDP growth rebounding to 2.2% in 2026 due to policy support [6][28] - The Eurozone's growth is projected at 0.8% in 2025, with Germany's fiscal stimulus partially offsetting trade war impacts [6][28]