中西部的农场今年秋天显得安静得有些刺耳。联合收割机把豆荚卷进舱内，颗粒如雨入仓，粮仓却越来越满。手机屏幕上，期货报价一格一格往下掉，微信 群里有人发图：港口的装船计划冷清，一些货场甚至挂出了"暂不收购"的牌子。对于靠大豆吃饭的农户而言，2025年的丰收像一场小小的讽刺——田里喜 气，账上发冷。 政治压力与票仓焦虑 10月2日，白宫里的话变得很直白。唐纳德·特朗普在媒体前发声，点名中国是在为谈判加码，故意不买美国大豆，让种植户承担代价。他宣称，等和中国领 导人碰头时，会"催着多买点"。话外之音并不难懂：中西部大豆产区是他的铁杆票仓，2018年的教训还在，2025年类似情节再次上演，已经触及他的政治神 经。 同一天，财政部长斯科特·贝森特也把话放得很硬。他说中国把美国大豆农民当作谈判筹码，语带惋惜，却不乏指责；并且强调，美国农民大多支持特朗 普，很快媒体就会看到中国"帮忙买大豆"的消息。他进一步放出时间表：10月7日政府会公布对农民、尤其是大豆生产商的"实质支持"。财政部与农业部将 联手上工具箱，补贴库存、贷款展期之类的举措都在预期之内，颇有几分2018年纾困计划的影子。 关税如何一步步传导到地头 回看年初，线索 ...

在经历了与中国的贸易摩擦后，美国开始意识到中国的重要性，试图重新依赖中国来缓解困境。 10月1日，密歇根州的民主党州长格雷琴·惠特默在演讲中批评了特朗普政府的关税政策，认为与盟友关系紧张是"不明智的"且"没有必要的"，同时她指出， 中国从这些政策中受益最大。 同日，特朗普在社交媒体上发文表示，他理解美国大豆农民的困境，因为中国出于谈判考虑停止购买美国大豆，导致美国农民"遭遇苦难"。他还提到，他不 会提供补贴，而是会在未来的谈判中要求中国遵守购买协议，帮助农民渡过难关。 从特朗普的言论中，可以看出两点：首先，他把美国豆农的危机归咎于中国；其次，特朗普显得过于自信。 美国大豆协会主席拉格兰在9月的农业展会上再次强调，美国的大豆产业正面临严重危机。他所持的报告中指出，美国大豆有一半依赖出口，而中国曾是最 大买家，购买了美国大豆的60%。但2025年，中国的订单栏竟然是"零"，四周内美国农业部的数据也未显示任何来自中国的采购。 美国农民的绝望源于关税的影响，这种"零订单"并非偶然，而是特朗普政府加征关税的后果。2018年，特朗普第一次对中国加征关税时，拉格兰曾带着大豆 协会的请愿书警告说，这样会使行业损失接近200亿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global soybean trade landscape is undergoing a profound transformation due to China's shift in sourcing from Brazil and Argentina, significantly impacting U.S. agriculture [1]. Group 1: Chain Reaction of Order Shifts - In April, China imported 2.4 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, causing concern among U.S. soybean farmers [5]. - Following Argentina's announcement to cancel grain export tariffs on September 22, China quickly signed a contract for 650,000 tons, further deepening the despair among U.S. Midwest farmers [5]. Group 2: Unexpected Costs of Trade War - The shift originated from the tariff war initiated by the Trump administration in April 2025, which led to a near halt in U.S.-China trade as tariffs soared to 145% [9]. - By 2025, China had almost completely stopped importing U.S. soybeans, contrasting sharply with the 32.85 million tons imported in 2017, which accounted for 56.4% of U.S. exports [9]. Group 3: Technological Trade Barriers - China has established a rigorous detection system to ensure the smooth implementation of trade transformation, including biological characteristic detection to determine the origin of soybeans [11][13]. - A strict penalty mechanism has been put in place for intermediaries violating the ban on re-exporting U.S. soybeans, resulting in 88 farms declaring bankruptcy and 320,000 tons of unsold pork by-products facing spoilage risks [15][16][18]. Group 4: China's Strategic Layout - China is diversifying its procurement, with South American orders exceeding 10 million tons this oil season, doubling year-on-year [21][23]. - The country is also enhancing self-sufficiency by optimizing feed formulas and expanding domestic planting [21][24]. - China capitalized on market opportunities by signing significant contracts immediately after Argentina's tax reduction announcement [21][26]. Group 5: Economic Insights - The ongoing trade dynamics illustrate a profound economic principle: unilateralism in a globalized era often backfires, as evidenced by the accumulation of U.S. soybean inventories [27]. - China's development of a diversified agricultural supply system not only secures food safety but also demonstrates a cooperative and win-win approach to global trade [27].

这下美国尝到了厉害，美国大豆或将烂在地里，特朗普求情也没用，他如今应该明白，想和中国做生意，就要按中国的规矩办。 据美国《财富》杂志9月9日报道，美国大豆协会的主席拉格兰，在接受媒体采访痛苦地表示，现在美国大豆正面临危机。这话一点不夸张，他称现在美国迎 来了丰收季，以前最大买家中国，现在没有下任何订单，照此下去，豆农将面临"严峻形势"。 【特朗普对豆农警示无动于衷】 早在今年4月，当特朗普单方面发起与中国的贸易战时，美国大豆协会主席拉格兰就在媒体上公开警告贸易战对美国大豆产业的巨大威胁。他明确指出，美 国大约50%的大豆产量用于出口，而中国在过去的采购量超过了美国所有其他海外客户的总和。 事实上，拉格兰的警告并非危言耸听。然而，特朗普政府似乎并未将这一警告放在心上，毅然决然地和中国对着干。美国先是单方面实施34%的"对等关 税"，次日更是将额外关税提升至145%，这种近乎疯狂的"极限施压"策略，显然是试图复制其在与其他国家谈判中"以快打慢"的战术，妄图迅速迫使中国在 经贸谈判中屈服。 不得不说，中国在全球大豆市场中占据着举足轻重的地位，是世界上最大的大豆买家。相关资料显示，中国一家购买的大豆量相当于全球的3/ ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the critical importance of tungsten, noting that the U.S. holds over 30% of the world's proven reserves while China relies on imports for 95% of its tungsten needs [3][5] - The potential impact of U.S. supply disruptions on various sectors, including military, automotive, machinery, and chemicals, is discussed, emphasizing that such disruptions could lead to increased prices for consumers [3][5][7] Group 2 - The article proposes three strategies for China to address its tungsten dependency: diversifying procurement sources, accelerating domestic production and technology development, and establishing strategic reserves [5][7] - It suggests that China should deepen cooperation with countries like Vietnam and African nations for tungsten sourcing and processing, while also encouraging domestic research and development to enhance tungsten processing capabilities [5][7] - The establishment of strategic reserves is recommended to ensure a buffer against supply disruptions, similar to reserves for food and oil [5][7]

Trade Policy and Tariffs - Trump's administration has implemented a series of tariffs against China, with rates reaching as high as 104% to 145% on certain goods, prompting retaliatory measures from China, including a 34% tariff on U.S. products [2][5] - In a surprising move, Trump announced a 10% "baseline tariff" on all imported goods, affecting over 100 countries, including China, leading to further retaliatory actions from China [5][12] - The trade war has resulted in significant volatility in global markets, with U.S. and Hong Kong stock markets experiencing declines [5][12] Trade Agreement and Compliance - A Phase One trade agreement was signed on January 15, 2020, where both countries agreed to lower some tariffs, but China's purchasing of U.S. goods did not meet expectations, leading to increased investments in South America [7][14] - China's investments in South America, including a $3.5 billion deep-water port in Peru and a large terminal in Brazil, have allowed it to secure alternative supply chains, reducing reliance on U.S. products [11][16] Market Dynamics and Consumer Preferences - Despite tariff reductions, U.S. goods remain uncompetitive in price, particularly in the agricultural sector, where Brazilian soybeans dominate the market, capturing over 70% of China's imports [9][12] - Historical grievances regarding U.S. agricultural practices have led to a cautious approach from China towards U.S. products, further diminishing their market share [9][14] - Chinese consumers show a preference for competitively priced products from South America over U.S. goods, impacting demand [12][18] Strategic Shifts and Global Trade Relations - The trade war has prompted China to diversify its procurement strategies and increase overseas investments, particularly in South America, which is becoming a key trading partner [16][18] - The U.S. market share for soybeans in China has dropped to 21% by 2024, while Brazil has taken a dominant position, reflecting a significant shift in trade dynamics [16][18] - The global trade landscape is being reshaped by these developments, with increased cooperation between China and other regions, such as Europe and Africa, to counter U.S. protectionism [18]

Summary of Conference Call on Costco's Supply Chain and Market Dynamics Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the home goods industry, particularly focusing on Costco's supply chain management and procurement strategies in response to tariff fluctuations and market demands [1][3][4][5][6]. Key Points and Arguments - **Tariff Impact and Procurement Strategy**: - Costco is diversifying its procurement strategy to mitigate tariff impacts, shifting health products back to the U.S. or Canada and labor-intensive goods like clothing to Southeast Asia [1][5]. - Approximately 34%-40% of Costco's total procurement is affected by tariffs, particularly in grocery and apparel sectors [1][6]. - The company collaborates closely with Chinese home brands like Kuka and Treton Group, but full replacement of Chinese suppliers is expected to take 3-5 years [1][11]. - **Price Adjustments and Inflation**: - Furniture prices have increased by 3%-5% from 2023 to 2024 due to supply chain costs and tariffs, with further inflation expected in 2025 [1][12]. - Despite a decline in new home sales by 8%, rental demand is rising, which is expected to boost demand for affordable furniture [12]. - **Inventory Management**: - Costco has been proactive in stockpiling inventory to counter potential cost increases due to tariffs, maintaining a three-month inventory level [3][7]. - The company plans to continue this strategy while managing inventory pressure [7]. - **Growth in Specific Product Categories**: - Categories such as smart home products, outdoor furniture, and space-saving furniture have seen significant growth, with year-over-year increases of 25%, 15%, and 20% respectively [4][18]. - These categories are expected to be focal points for future development, adapting to rising prices through enhanced product features [4][18]. - **Supplier Dynamics and Regional Shifts**: - Southeast Asian factories are increasing capacity by 30%-40% annually, but complete replacement of Chinese suppliers will take 5-10 years [15]. - The transition to Southeast Asia is complicated by higher initial costs and operational challenges [28]. - **Sales Strategy and Market Adaptation**: - Costco's sales strategy will focus on existing suppliers, particularly small to medium-sized brands in Vietnam and Southeast Asia, while maintaining relationships with leading brands [14]. - The company anticipates a 10%-15% impact on home goods sales due to tariffs, but plans to adapt by adjusting product categories and maintaining quality [14][36]. Other Important Insights - **Consumer Behavior**: - There is a shift towards online purchasing, especially for 3C and home goods, driven by competitive pricing on e-commerce platforms [27]. - The company acknowledges the need for flexibility in pricing strategies to remain competitive in a changing market [36]. - **Future Outlook**: - The expectation of interest rate cuts in 2025 may lead to a rebound in demand, with inventory cycles extending from 45-50 days to 60 days [24][33]. - Costco is committed to improving operational efficiency and managing costs while navigating the complexities of the current market environment [25][35]. - **Challenges in Supply Chain Transition**: - Transitioning production to Southeast Asia presents challenges, including higher operational costs and the need for local market adaptation [28][30]. - Despite these challenges, some suppliers are already beginning to shift production to avoid tariff impacts, although large-scale production remains difficult [29]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, highlighting Costco's strategic responses to current market dynamics and challenges within the home goods industry.

Group 1: Sales and Cost Management - Sales expenses increased in 2024 primarily due to rising LNG storage costs, with measures planned to control these expenses and improve cost-effectiveness [1] - The company aims to establish a dynamic balance mechanism for cost control and market expansion to enhance the return on sales expenses [2] Group 2: Market Trends and Strategic Adaptation - The LNG market is expected to see significant growth from 2025 to 2026 due to multiple new supply projects and increasing demand driven by environmental policies and industrial growth [2] - The company plans to optimize its clean energy supply and service models, expand customer resources, and enhance LNG transportation capabilities to strengthen its market position [2] Group 3: Procurement and Risk Management - The company is actively seeking price differences in domestic and international LNG markets to enhance procurement channels and mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations [3] - In 2024, the Singapore subsidiary completed two LNG ship cargo transactions, generating revenue of CNY 656 million, contributing to stable LNG resource acquisition [3] Group 4: Hedging Strategies - The company employs hedging strategies through its Singapore subsidiary to manage price volatility and ensure stable profitability [4] - Adjustments to hedging strategies will be made based on market conditions to optimize resource trade flows and achieve risk management goals [4] Group 5: Competitive Positioning - The company is developing a comprehensive LNG business chain, including transportation, wholesale trade, and retail, to enhance competitiveness against traditional energy sources [5] - Plans include expanding retail operations through the development of LNG refueling stations and leveraging data analytics to improve sales capabilities [5]