| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 较 7 | 气候中性预期，美豆种植天气基本顺利。国内大豆及豆粕累库阶段，8 月累库速度 月预计有所放缓。中美贸易关税成为豆粕下档关键成本支撑。本周美农公布 8 | | 豆粕 | 短期偏多 | 月供需报告，意外大幅调低美豆种植面积，但调增了单产，导致最终美豆产量及期 末库存环比下调，产量环比调减 116 万吨，利多美豆及国内豆粕。本周 18 日-21 日 | | ★ | | 美民间机构开展美豆调研数据，截止目前，除印第安那州外，结荚数均高于去年同 | | | | 期。豆粕暂维持偏多震荡，但追多需谨慎。关注最终面积及产量数据能否给出新指 | | | 引。 | | | | | 全球菜籽产量同比恢复，但加籽新年单产存在调减风险，目前已经进入零星收割阶 | | | | 段。国内油厂菜籽环比去库菜粕环比去库，商业库存去库，但同比依然维持较高水 | | | | 平，对盘面存在压力。100%加菜粕进口关税，菜籽反倾销保证金，对菜粕价格构 | | 菜粕 | 短期偏多 | 成较强支持。现货市场方面，豆粕对菜粕消费替代较大，消费预期一般。高库 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **豆一**: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **豆粕**: ★☆★, with a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - **豆油**: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **标油**: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the market operability is poor, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] - **菜粕**: ★☆☆, being bullish, with a driving force for price increase but limited market operability [1] - **菜油**: ★☆☆, being bullish, with a driving force for price increase but limited market operability [1] - **玉米**: ★☆★, with a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - **生猪**: ★☆☆, being bearish, with a driving force for price decline but limited market operability [1] - **鸡蛋**: ★★☆, indicating a clear downward trend and the market is in the process of fermentation [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the agricultural product market is complex, with different products showing different price trends and investment opportunities. Some products are affected by supply - demand relationships, some by international trade policies, and others by weather and policy factors [2][3][6] Summary by Product Soybeans - **Domestic soybeans**: The short - term large number of auctions drags down the price. The price of domestic soybeans is relatively low in valuation, and short - term attention should be paid to the fluctuations of surrounding varieties and policy guidance [2] - **U.S. soybeans**: The new - season soybeans have a reduced planting area but an increased yield per unit, and the ending inventory decreases year - on - year, which boosts the price. There is a risk of high temperature and low precipitation in some areas in the short term [2] Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The rapeseed series main contracts continue to be weak, and the rapeseed meal position increases significantly. The market has strong expectations for importing Australian rapeseed. If the trade between China and Australia grows rapidly after the new Australian rapeseed is launched in October, the rapeseed series futures prices may be under short - term pressure. The rapeseed series maintains a medium - term bullish view, but the futures prices may be under short - term pressure [2][5] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Indonesia is negotiating with the U.S. on zero - tariff palm oil imports. The Indonesian government will crack down on illegal natural resource exploitation, and 5 million hectares of palm plantations are under review. The price difference between Malaysian 24 - degree palm oil and Argentine soybean oil has rapidly narrowed. The long - term biodiesel policy in the U.S. remains unchanged, but there is a risk of phased demand fluctuations. Short - term attention should be paid to the impact of position changes on price trends [3] Corn - The Dalian corn futures return to the downward trend. The U.S. corn continues to decline, with a good growth rate. The domestic corn supply remains high without policy guidance and under the background of the decline in U.S. corn prices. Corn may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [6] Pigs - The spot price of pigs is stable but weak, and the futures price rebounds slightly. The supply of pigs is expected to be high in the second half of the year, and the spot price is expected to continue to decline. The government may provide support when the price drops to a certain range. It is recommended that the industry conduct hedging when the price rises [7] Eggs - The spot price of eggs is stable but strong, and the near - month futures price fluctuates at a low level. The trading logic of the egg futures market is still to reduce production capacity through price decline. Attention should be paid to the performance of the spot price, the game between peak - season demand and cold - storage egg release, and the progress of production capacity elimination [8]

2025年08月13日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 13 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地供需两旺，低多为主 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆面积下调，提供上涨题材 | 2 | | 豆粕：USDA报告利多，连粕跟随美豆上涨 | 4 | | 豆一：豆类市场氛围偏多，盘面或反弹 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：内外共振上行 | 8 | | 棉花：进口配额有关消息提振棉价 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：现货存在反弹情绪 | 11 | | 生猪：近月限仓，产业交割意愿偏强 | 12 | | 花生：关注现货 | 13 | 棕榈油：产地供需两旺，低多为主 豆油：美豆面积下调，提供上涨题材 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Report Investment Ratings - **Beans and Meal**: Large - range oscillation [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Large - range oscillation [1] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term consolidation [1] - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Jujube**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Live Pigs**: Cautiously bullish [1] Core Views - **Beans and Meal**: Amid the interplay of weak fundamentals and cost support from Sino - US trade tariffs, it shows a large - range oscillation. This week, there was inventory reduction, and the good - quality rate of US soybeans decreased month - on - month, which is bullish. However, there is a risk of an upward adjustment in the US soybean yield in the August USDA report, so be cautious about chasing long positions. Focus on the next USDA monthly supply - demand report [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Under the influence of multiple long and short factors, it presents a large - range market. Although the global rapeseed output has recovered year - on - year, there is a risk of a yield reduction in Canada. The import of rapeseed from August to October is significantly lower year - on - year, and the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed support the price. But the improvement in Canadian rapeseed import profit exerts downward pressure. Pay attention to the planting weather, yield estimates, Sino - Canadian relations, and Sino - Australian developments [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are bullish for the consumption outlook of the palm oil market, and there is purchasing demand from China and India. However, there may be inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil in July, which could suppress short - term prices. Consider the support of biodiesel policies and look for opportunities to go long on dips. Also, pay attention to domestic palm oil purchases in the past three months and beware of the risk of short - term squeeze [1][10]. - **Cotton**: The moisture condition in the main cotton - producing areas of the US continues to deteriorate slightly, and the export improvement expectation is limited. The ICE market is expected to move in a narrow range. In China, the guaranteed output of new cotton has increased, and the high - temperature risk has been lifted, but the risk of rainy days in the future needs attention. The commercial inventory is still being depleted rapidly, and there is no quota issuance at the import end, providing short - term support. The downstream may gradually enter the stocking period, and there is an expected marginal improvement in the spinning mill's operating rate and future orders. Before the new cotton is launched, the downside space is limited, and it is advisable to establish long positions on dips [1][14]. - **Jujube**: There are still significant differences in the market regarding the reduction range, and the possibility of an over - expected reduction is still in doubt, with speculation risks remaining. High - inventory pressure restricts the rebound height before the final output is determined. It is recommended to be cautious and try long positions [1][17]. - **Live Pigs**: The previous second - fattening sales and the acceleration of short - term sales rhythm have pushed down the price of live pigs. However, the recovery of the price difference between standard and fat pigs still drives some second - fattening speculation, so the near - term contracts are weak but have certain support. The medium - and long - term production capacity remains at a high level, and the gradual reduction of production capacity by leading enterprises may help the far - term contracts rise. The overall situation is "weak reality, strong expectation". Continue to pay attention to the reverse - spread strategy and the opportunity to establish long positions on dips for far - term contracts [1][20]. Summary by Directory Beans and Meal - **Inventory Data**: As of August 1, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 8.237 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 152,000 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 6.5559 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 100,000 tons, and the bean meal inventory was 1.0416 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,500 tons [3]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main bean meal contract closed at 3,045 yuan/ton, up 0.46% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,015.43 yuan/ton, up 0.33% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory Data**: As of August 1, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 116,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21,000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 27,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,000 tons [7]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main rapeseed meal contract closed at 2,773 yuan/ton, up 1.24% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,725.26 yuan/ton, up 1.07% [5]. Palm Oil - **Inventory Data**: As of August 1, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 582,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,300 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 3,400 tons [9]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main palm oil contract closed at 8,980 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day. The national average price was 9,108 yuan/ton, up 1.26% [8]. Cotton - **Inventory Data**: The cotton commercial inventory dropped to 2.0067 million tons, 210,000 tons lower than the same period. The inventory depletion has not significantly slowed down [13]. - **Price Data**: The main Zhengzhou cotton contract CF2509 decreased by 0.22% to 13,640 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price decreased by 0.10% to 15,193 yuan/ton [11][12]. Jujube - **Inventory Data**: This week, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9,784 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 255 tons, and 4,379 tons higher than the same period [16]. - **Price Data**: The main jujube contract CJ2601 increased by 3.59% to 11,540 yuan/ton [16]. Live Pigs - **Inventory and Output Data**: In August, the planned output of Steel Union sample enterprises was 13.2257 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 5.26%. The national sample enterprises' live - pig inventory was 37.6332 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%, and the output was 10.9168 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 3.01% [18][19]. - **Price Data**: The main live - pig contract Lh2511 increased by 0.96% to 14,180 yuan/ton, and the domestic live - pig spot price remained stable at 14,340 yuan/ton [18][19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybeans: ☆☆☆ (Buy) [1] - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ (Buy) [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ (Strong Buy) [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ (Strong Buy) [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ☆☆☆ (Buy) [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ (Strong Buy) [1] - Corn: ★★★ (Strong Buy) [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ (Weak Buy) [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ (Weak Buy) [1] Core Views - The prices of "anti - involution" commodities continued to decline, and the focus of the market was on them, making agricultural products less attractive. The third - round economic and trade negotiations between China and the US suspended the addition of tariffs, which may be extended for 90 days. The US soybean is likely to have an early - stage high - yield expectation, and the market should be treated as volatile for now [3]. - For soybeans, the domestic soybean contract price showed a volatile correction. In the short term, attention should be paid to weather and policy guidance. The US Midwest has good weather, which is conducive to a high - yield of US soybeans [2]. - Regarding soybean oil and palm oil, the price difference between US and Chinese soybean oil may cause Chinese soybean oil to strengthen in the medium - term. Due to the long - term development of US and Indonesian biodiesel and the palm oil's entry into the production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter, a strategy of buying on dips is maintained [4]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, the prices of domestic and foreign rapeseed products are mainly in a range - bound state. The supply of new - season Canadian rapeseed is affected by weather, and the trade relationship between the US and Canada may affect the export of Canadian rapeseed products. In the short - term, a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [6]. - For corn, the auction results of imported corn were average, and the corn futures continued to run weakly in a volatile manner. The US corn is under pressure, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom [7]. - For live pigs, the futures prices continued to correct, and the supply is expected to be sufficient in the medium - term. It is recommended that the industry conduct hedging when prices are high [8]. - For eggs, the near - month futures prices of eggs continued to fall to new lows, while the far - month futures were relatively resistant to decline. If the egg prices can reduce production capacity through price drops in the second half of this year, the egg price cycle may reverse next year [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - The domestic soybean main - contract price showed a volatile correction. The total trading volume of domestic soybean purchase and sale was 40,302 tons, with a base price of 4,200 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 4,268 yuan/ton. In the short term, there is a risk of waterlogging in low - lying farmland in Northeast China. The US Midwest has good weather, and there may be a high - yield of US soybeans this year [2]. - The "anti - involution" commodities continued to decline, and the US soybean is under pressure. About 5% of the US soybean - producing areas were affected by drought as of July 29, and the good - quality rate of US soybeans is 70%, at a high level in the same period of history. There may be an early - stage high - yield expectation for US soybeans, and the market should be treated as volatile for now [3]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The price difference between US and Chinese soybean oil rose and then slightly declined this week. Historically, the price difference usually peaks and then falls in the third quarter. In the medium - term, Chinese soybean oil may strengthen to catch up with the overseas market. A strategy of buying on dips is maintained for soybean oil and palm oil, and attention should be paid to the risk of the oil - strong and meal - weak situation [4]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The prices of domestic and foreign rapeseed products are mainly in a range - bound state. The initial inventory of new - season Canadian rapeseed is low, and the yield is closely related to weather. The yield forecast by the Canadian Ministry of Agriculture and Agri - Food in late July is 17.8 million tons. The US has raised the tariff on Canadian goods, which may affect the export of Canadian rapeseed products. In the short - term, a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [6]. Corn - Two auctions of imported corn were held by Sinograin today. The transaction rate of US genetically - modified corn was 31% with a volume of 186,200 tons, and that of Ukrainian non - genetically - modified corn was 68% with a volume of 8,600 tons. The corn futures continued to run weakly in a volatile manner. About 7% of the US corn - producing areas were affected by drought as of July 29, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom [7]. Live Pigs - The live - pig futures prices continued to correct, and the performance of related stocks in the breeding industry was in sync with the futures market. The short - term supply decreased, leading to a rise in spot prices. However, the supply is expected to be sufficient in the medium - term, and it is recommended that the industry conduct hedging when prices are high [8]. Eggs - The near - month futures prices of eggs continued to fall to new lows, while the far - month futures were relatively resistant to decline. The spot prices were stable with a weak trend. If the egg prices can reduce production capacity through price drops in the second half of this year, the egg price cycle may reverse next year, and the far - month futures prices have shown some signs of this expectation [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall weather for US soybeans is suitable, but there is a trend of high - temperature and dryness in Kansas in the second week, which needs further observation. Brazilian discounts have slightly declined but are still expected to be firm. The domestic market is in a inventory - building cycle, with the basis expected to fluctuate at a low level. The import cost is expected to support the 101 contract, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, with a focus on buying on dips [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The excellent - good rate of US soybeans has risen to 70%, higher than last year and market expectations, and the weather will be normal in the next two weeks. Under the pressure of concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean supply reduction in July and August is expected to be over one million tons. The pressure of soybean meal inventory accumulation is expected to last until September, and the ship - booking from October to January is slow [7][8]. Demand - Pig and poultry farming are expected to maintain high inventories in the short term, supporting feed demand. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, the proportion of feed addition has increased, and提货 is at a high level. Wheat has replaced corn in some areas, reducing the demand for protein. Recently, the trading volume of soybean meal has increased at low prices [8]. Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level; soybean meal is in an inventory - building cycle; the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [8]. Price and Spread - For 43% soybean meal spot basis on July 16th, in Dalian it was - 37, in Rizhao - 157, in Tianjin - 57, in Zhangjiagang - 157 (down 9), in Dongguan - 177, in Zhanjiang - 127, and in Fangcheng - 137. The rapeseed meal spot basis was - 53 (up 2). The M9 - M1 spread was - 34, M9 - RM9 was 3, and RM9 - 1 was 344. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 324, and the futures price difference of the main contract was also provided [6][7]. International Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1322, the futures crushing profit was 265 yuan/ton (down 5), and the import soybean futures gross profit was also mentioned. The CNF premium of imported soybeans was shown in the chart [7].

2025年07月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：宏观情绪推涨，基本面高度有限 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆天气炒作不足，缺乏驱动 | 2 | | 豆粕：贸易忧虑、美豆收跌，连粕或偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡调整 | 6 | | 白糖：整理期 | 8 | | 棉花：旧作库存偏紧预期继续支撑期价 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：关注旺季现货兑现情况 | 11 | | 生猪：现货情绪转弱 | 12 | | 花生：下方有支撑 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 10 日 棕榈油：宏观情绪推涨，基本面高度有限 豆油：美豆天气炒作不足，缺乏驱动 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,678 | 0.39 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - 豆一: ★★★ [1] - 豆油: ★★★ [1] - 棕榈油: ★★★ [1] - 豆粕: ★★★ [1] - 菜粕: ★★★ [1] - 菜油: ★★★ [1] - 玉米: ★★★ [1] - 生猪: ★★★ [1] - 鸡蛋: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - 农产品市场各品种表现分化，短期需关注天气、政策和经贸谈判等因素指引，中长期部分品种受产能影响存在价格压力 [2][3][4] Summary by Category Soybean and Its Products - 国产大豆主力合约减仓价格止跌反弹，东北产区天气利于生长，政策端购销双向交易成交好；进口美豆产区天气未来一周利于生长，短期关注天气和政策 [2] - 美国大豆优良率正常，未来两周产区降雨波动、温度略低，特朗普政府税率威胁执行推迟，连粕震荡，国内油厂压榨量高、豆粕库存上升，中美贸易不确定多，大连豆粕先以震荡对待 [3] - 棕榈油增仓上涨，豆油减仓震荡，6月马来西亚棕榈油产量降、需求增、库存降，关注MPOB报告和欧洲及黑海葵花籽天气，三季度海外棕榈油处增产周期，长期植物油逢低多配，短期关注政策和产区天气 [4] Rapeseed and Its Products - 菜粕低开高走小涨，菜油为植物油板块最弱，基本面围绕外盘菜籽产区天气和经贸谈判，国外产区天气风险降低菜籽承压，菜系单边趋势不明显，菜粕弱势震荡，菜系油粕比短期有向上波动空间 [6] Corn - 大连玉米震荡，市场聚焦阶段性供应，7月受中储粮拍卖影响供应上量价格走低，基层贸易商增加供应，山东现货增加，南北港库存攀升，需求疲软，玉米期货或继续震荡 [7] Livestock Products - 生猪期价回落，现货稳定，前期盘面上涨现货下跌后基差收窄，6月能繁母猪存栏上升，中长期猪价有下行压力 [8] Eggs - 鸡蛋主力08合约减仓反弹，7月为淡旺季转折点但今年中秋晚旺季或延后，现货报价稳定，8月合约对现货升水近千元，关注旺季启动和升水收敛，长期产能去化不足蛋价未见底 [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - With the gradual establishment of downstream inventory of domestic soybeans, the subsequent inventory accumulation speed of domestic soybeans may accelerate under the expectation of high - opening and high - pressing of oil mills, and the performance of 000 is expected to be volatile. - There is an expectation of rising import costs for soybean meal in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the November and January contracts. Also, pay attention to the results of the USDA planting area report at the end of June [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - On June 27, the basis of the main soybean meal contract in Dalian was - 26, down 70; in Tianjin, it was - 66, down 30; in Rizhao, it was - 106, down 10. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Zhangjiagang was - 126, down 50 [6]. - The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was - 29, down 9. The M9 - 1 spread was - 41, up 6 [6]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 387, and the price difference between the main contracts was 270, down 20 [7]. Supply Situation - In China, the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans is expected to exceed 10 million tons in June, July, and August. The supply - demand balance sheet of new - crop US soybeans is tightening, and the good - excellent rate of US soybeans has declined to 66%, lower than the same period last year. The weather in the US in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean growth [7]. Demand Situation - Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November, and the inventory of poultry remains at a high level. The cost - performance of soybean meal is relatively high, and the proportion of feed addition has increased. The提货 volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the use of protein [7]. Inventory Situation - As of last Friday, domestic soybean and soybean meal continued to accumulate inventory. Currently, soybean inventory is at a high level in the same period of history, while soybean meal inventory is still at a low level in the same period of history, and the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal continue to rise [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bean Meal**: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - position trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Eggs**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products, including soybeans, bean meal, edible oils, corn, hogs, and eggs. It takes into account factors such as weather, geopolitics, policies, and supply - demand relationships, and provides corresponding investment suggestions and trend judgments for each product [2][3][7] Summaries by Agricultural Product Categories Soybeans and Related Products - **Domestic Soybeans**: The remaining domestic soybean inventory at the grass - roots level is low, and the policy is conducting auctions for supplementation. Short - term weather is favorable for domestic soybean growth. For imported soybeans, attention should be paid to the report on the new soybean planting area in the US at the end of June, and short - term weather is also beneficial for US soybean growth [2] - **Soybeans and Bean Meal**: The Israel - Iran war has led to a continuous rise in crude oil prices, driving up the prices of oil - related futures. US soybean growing conditions are favorable in the next two weeks. Domestically, soybean arrivals have increased since May, supply has become more abundant, and bean meal inventory is expected to continue to rise. The soybean market is currently in a volatile state, and attention should be paid to changes in the oil market and future weather [3] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: CBOT soybeans should be monitored for the new planting area report at the end of June. The short - term weather outlook is beneficial for US soybeans. CBOT soybean oil prices are strong. Domestically, there is a large arrival pressure in the short term, and the fourth - quarter procurement progress is slower than usual. The long - term view is to maintain a long - position allocation for vegetable oils, and short - term attention should be paid to the long - short game [4] Rapeseed Products - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed meal prices generally declined today, while rapeseed oil prices showed mixed trends. The weather in Canadian rapeseed - producing areas is dry, and the crop quality is below the average in recent years. Domestic rapeseed crushing has declined, which supports the high price difference between rapeseed products and competing products. The impact of geopolitical risks and biodiesel policies has been mostly digested, and there is a risk of price decline. The strategy for rapeseed products is to shift from a bullish stance to a wait - and - see approach [6] Corn - The introduction of the minimum wheat purchase price policies in Henan and Anhui has strengthened the price increase expectations of corn/wheat. The supply of corn in the circulation link has tightened, and the futures market may continue to fluctuate [7] Hogs - The weekend increase in hog spot prices drove the futures market to open higher today and then fluctuate. In the short term, group farms are reducing supply to support prices, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased. In the medium term, the pressure on hog slaughter is large. In the long term, the policy aims to stabilize hog prices, and attention should be paid to when the production capacity reaches an inflection point [8] Eggs - Due to the high number of chick replenishments from January to April this year, egg - laying capacity is still being released. The long - term egg price cycle has not reached the bottom, and there is a possibility of further decline in the far - month contracts [9]