2026年03月01日 国泰君安期货研究周报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：基本面矛盾匮乏，油价扰动为主 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：上下驱动均有限，区间操作 | 2 | | 豆粕：地缘事件影响市场情绪，或稳中偏强 | 8 | | 豆一：关注两会政策情绪，或稳中偏强 | 8 | | 白糖：区间整理为主 | 14 | | 棉花：稳步上涨20260301 | 21 | | 生猪：进入被动累库阶段，现货仍需寻底 | 28 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 03 月 01 日 棕榈油：基本面矛盾匮乏，油价扰动为主 豆油：上下驱动均有限，区间操作 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：假期前随着宏观退潮、地缘缓和、产地出口放缓及节前避险情绪，棕榈油在前高位置成功受 阻回落至 8800 一线。节后地缘风险溢价抬升国际油价，基本面逻辑几乎延续节前，能提供的交易矛盾有 限，棕榈油 05 合约周涨 0.34%。 豆油： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry - wide investment rating. However, for each individual futures variety, it gives a short - term view: - **Bullish**: Bean meal (short - term shock bullish), Rapeseed meal (stop - falling and rebounding), Palm oil (short - term rise), Soybean oil (short - term rise), Rapeseed oil (short - term rebound), Cotton (strong operation) - **Bearish**: Red dates (pressured operation), Live pigs (shock weak) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Bean Meal**: Influenced by drought in Argentine soybean regions, positive outlook on US soybean exports to China, and US biodiesel policy expectations, the US soybean market sentiment is positive. But due to state - reserve sales, pre - stocked feed enterprises, and improved soybean crushing margins, the upward movement of bean meal will face spot hedging pressure. It should be treated bullishly, but chasing the rise requires caution [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: January saw zero rapeseed imports, with an average of 120,000 tons per month in February and March, much lower than the same period last year. Short - term supply of rapeseed meal is tight, but trading is light in the off - season. The US - Canada trade fluctuations may affect Sino - Canadian trade negotiations. Although rapeseed meal continued to rise, there are signs of large - scale rapeseed procurement, so chasing the rise requires caution [1][6]. - **Palm Oil**: Italy's new bio - fuel regulations removing palm oil import restrictions are bullish. Malaysian palm oil production decreased significantly in the first 25 days of January. Although export data increased month - on - month, there is still a risk of inventory build - up in January. With the recent rise approaching previous highs, chasing the rise requires caution [1][8]. - **Soybean Oil**: Domestic soybean oil inventory is in a stage of de - stocking. The weather in Argentina and the US biodiesel policy are favorable for US soybean oil. The domestic market continued to rise, but chasing the rise after continuous increases requires caution [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Due to the US - Canada relationship fluctuations, Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade policies may change again, and the market sentiment is bullish. With tight domestic supply, rapeseed oil is in a short - term rebound. Pay attention to the progress of rapeseed procurement and the US - Canada trade situation [1]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton market rebounded after digesting macro - negatives. In 2026, the new cotton narrative will gradually develop in the first quarter. Domestically, new cotton processing is almost complete, and the sales progress has rebounded, but raw material inventory pressure is increasing. The demand side is in a weakening stage, and the upward movement lacks fundamental support in the short - term. In the medium - to - long - term, there is a positive outlook due to planting compression and restocking expectations [1][12]. - **Red Dates**: The spot market is flat, and with the peak of new product listing and the arrival of the consumption peak season, the futures price fluctuates more. High - inventory de - stocking may drive a short - term rebound, but in general, the overall trend is pressured [1][15]. - **Live Pigs**: As the end of January approaches, the pressure of increasing slaughter volume is rising, and it is more difficult to support prices. The demand for stocking is expected to start this week, and the previous situation of weak supply and demand will gradually turn into a situation of strong supply and demand. The near - term contracts face increasing pressure, and the far - term contracts are also under pressure due to the under - expected reduction of breeding sows [1][17]. 3. Summary by Variety Bean Meal - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,802 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.72% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,201.43 yuan/ton, up 5.14 yuan or 0.16% [2]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 were 3.23 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 188%. Drought in Argentina, positive outlook on US soybean exports to China, and US biodiesel policy expectations are positive factors, while state - reserve sales and pre - stocked feed enterprises are negative factors [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,325 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan or 1.22% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,632.11 yuan/ton, up 19.48 yuan or 0.75% [4]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: As of the 4th week of 2026, coastal oil - mill rapeseed meal inventory was 0 tons, and the national total inventory was 416,400 tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons from the previous week. There are signs of increased imports from Australia and Canada, but short - term supply is still tight [6]. Palm Oil - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9,362 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan or 0.99% from the previous day. The national average price was 9,370 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan or 1.19% [7]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: India aims to reduce its dependence on palm oil imports. In January 2026, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased significantly, and export data increased month - on - month, but there is still a risk of inventory build - up [8]. Cotton - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract CF2605 closed at 14,910 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 0.20% from the previous day. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 16,103 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan or 1.07% [9]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: Internationally, Brazil and Turkey are expected to reduce cotton production in 2026. Domestically, new cotton processing is almost complete, inventory is increasing year - on - year, import volume has increased, and demand is in a weakening stage [10][11]. Red Dates - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2605 closed at 8,895 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan or 0.74% from the previous day. Spot prices in major producing areas remained stable [13]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: Market arrivals are mainly low - grade products. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises decreased week - on - week but was still higher than the same period last year [14]. Live Pigs - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract LH2603 closed at 11,165 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan or 0.93% from the previous day. The national average slaughter price was 12,460 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan or 1.66% [16]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The supply side faces increasing pressure of slaughter volume, and the secondary fattening has increased supply pressure. The demand side is expected to start stocking this week [17].

农产品日报（2026 年 1 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周一，玉米主力 | 2603 | 合约增仓上行，近月领涨、远期跟涨，3 | 月合约期价接近 | 2300 | 元整数关口，多头情绪占据主导。现货市场方面，受期货上涨影响，玉米现 | | | | | | | | | | | | 货市场节前备货对价格窄幅调整。基层购销相对平稳，贸易商对优质玉米建库意 | 愿逐渐增强。下游企业库存同比偏低，但节期、现报价提供支撑。东北近日有降 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 雪，或影响玉米上量。销区进入节前备货模式，但随着近期拍卖量的增加，销区 | 需求有一定的补给，销区采购需求多样化。周末华北地区玉米价格有涨有跌，主 | 玉米 | 震荡 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 流价格保持稳定， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Corn futures oscillated and closed higher this week, with the main 2603 contract closing at 2263 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton from last week. The US corn is entering the export peak season with high short - term supply pressure, but good export conditions support its price. In China, the corn purchase in the Northeast has exceeded half, reserve and imported corn supplies are increasing, and farmers are still reluctant to sell. Feed and deep - processing enterprises' inventories are rising, and low inventories at ports and downstream enterprises support the price. However, the driving force for continuous increase needs further observation, so it's advisable to wait and see [6]. - Dalian corn starch futures also oscillated and closed higher, with the main 2603 contract closing at 2535 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week. As of January 7, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises was at a high level, indicating supply pressure. But some downstream customers are repurchasing corn starch due to the large increase in tapioca starch price, so it's necessary to pay attention to the pre - Spring Festival stocking. Affected by the rise in corn price, starch prices followed suit, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Zhoudu Yaodian Xiaojie (Weekly Key Points Summary) Corn - **Market Review**: The main 2603 contract of corn futures closed at 2263 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton from last week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The US corn is in the export peak season with high supply pressure, but good exports support the price. In China, as of December 29, 1.17 billion tons of corn had been purchased in the Northeast. After New Year's Day, reserve and imported corn supplies increased, farmers were reluctant to sell, deep - processing enterprises' inventories rose, and feed enterprises maintained rigid procurement. Low inventories at ports and downstream enterprises support the price, but the driving force for continuous increase needs observation [6]. Corn Starch - **Market Review**: The main 2603 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2535 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week [8]. - **Market Outlook**: As of January 7, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises was 1.125 million tons, up 0.20 million tons from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.18%, a monthly increase of 2.09%, and a year - on - year increase of 25.14%. High inventory means supply pressure, but some downstream customers are turning back to corn starch due to tapioca starch price increase. Pay attention to pre - Spring Festival stocking [8]. 2. Qixian Shichang Qingkuang (Futures and Spot Market Situation) Futures Price and Position Changes - The 3 - month contract of corn futures oscillated and closed higher, with a total position of 1,049,843 lots, up 40,582 lots from last week. The 3 - month contract of corn starch futures also oscillated and closed higher, with a total position of 197,160 lots, up 1,671 lots from last week [14]. Top 20 Net Position Changes - The top 20 net position of corn futures this week was - 146,474, compared with - 168,889 last week, indicating a decrease in net short positions. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 40,680, compared with - 31,610 last week, indicating an increase in net short positions [20]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 36,555 lots, and those of corn starch were 12,477 lots [26]. Spot Price and Basis - As of January 8, 2026, the average spot price of corn was 2351.37 yuan/ton. The basis between the active 3 - month contract of corn and the spot average price was + 88 yuan/ton [31]. - The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2700 yuan/ton and 2800 yuan/ton in Shandong, remaining stable this week. The basis between the 3 - month contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 165 yuan/ton [35]. Futures Inter - month Spread - The 3 - 5 spread of corn was - 9 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 3 - 5 spread of starch was - 43 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [41]. Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the 3 - month contracts of starch and corn was 272 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 424 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from last week [48]. Substitute Spread - As of January 8, 2026, the average spot price of wheat was 2511.44 yuan/ton, and that of corn was 2351.37 yuan/ton. The wheat - corn spread was 160.07 yuan/ton. In the second week of 2026, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 626 yuan/ton, narrowing 35 yuan/ton from last week [55]. 3. Chan Ye Qingkuang (Industrial Chain Situation) Corn Supply Side - As of January 2, 2026, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 478,000 tons, up 93,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 294,000 tons, down 30,000 tons. The total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 1.538 million tons, down 75,000 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 593,000 tons, down 74,000 tons week - on - week [45]. - As of January 8, the overall corn selling progress was 48%, up 4% from last week and 3% from the same period last year. Different provinces showed varying progress [57]. - In November 2025, China's ordinary corn imports were 560,000 tons, the highest this year, an increase of 260,000 tons (86.67%) from the same period last year and 200,000 tons from the previous month [61]. - As of January 8, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 30.10 days, up 0.18 days from last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.60% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.81% [65]. Demand Side - At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million, up 9.86 million (2.3%) year - on - year and 12.33 million (2.9%) quarter - on - quarter. As of the end of October, the inventory of breeding sows was 30.9 million, down 450,000 (1.12%) month - on - month [69]. - As of January 2, 2026, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was - 34.59 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 48.35 yuan/head [73]. - As of January 8, 2026, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 49 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit was - 510 yuan/ton in Henan, - 826 yuan/ton in Jilin, and - 289 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [78]. Corn Starch Supply Side - As of January 7, 2026, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 3.54 million tons, with an increase of 1.32% [82]. - From January 1 - 7, 2026, the national corn processing volume was 627,900 tons, down 3,200 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 324,800 tons, down 2,700 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 59.37%, down 0.49% from last week. As of January 7, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.125 million tons, up 2,000 tons from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.18%, a monthly increase of 2.09%, and a year - on - year increase of 25.14% [86]. 4. Qiquan Shichang Fenxi (Option Market Analysis) - As of January 9, the main 2603 contract of corn oscillated and rose, and the corresponding option implied volatility was 12.23%, up 0.91% from 11.32% last week. The implied volatility rebounded this week and was at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [89].

2026年01月07日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：基本面驱动不强，关注宏观情绪影响 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：单边区间为主，关注月差机会 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆收跌，连粕或震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：低位整理 | 7 | | 棉花：维持强势20260107 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：远月情绪转弱 | 10 | | 生猪：仍存累库行为 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 07 日 品 研 究 棕榈油：基本面驱动不强，关注宏观情绪影响 豆油：单边区间为主，关注月差机会 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 0.14% | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 0.47% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 ...

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 12 月 16 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bearish pressure on the meal market has been mostly reflected, and the market is experiencing a phased rebound. The international soybean market supply - demand situation is relatively stable, with limited price changes expected. The US soybean market has some support but still faces export - related pressure. The Brazilian soybean market may face price pressure in the medium - term. The domestic meal market is in a state of relatively loose supply - demand, but the supply may tighten in the future. The monthly spread of soybean meal shows a strong operation trend, and that of rapeseed meal follows suit [1][3][4][6] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Market Quotes Review - The US soybean market fluctuated after the monthly supply - demand report, with limited changes. The domestic soybean meal market stabilized after a sharp decline, and the rapeseed meal market rebounded under the influence of soybean meal. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal continued to narrow, and the monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis International Market - The US soybean has obvious downward pressure due to large export pressure. The Brazilian new - crop soybean planting progress has accelerated but is still at a low level compared to the same period in history. Most institutions expect a bumper harvest in Brazil, and the export volume is expected to increase significantly. The old - crop soybeans in Brazil have strong export and crushing performance. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is large, and its recent crushing and export have increased [4] Domestic Market - The domestic spot market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation. The oil mill operating rate remains high, with sufficient supply and increasing提货 volume. The inventory is at a high level. The market demand is increasing, but there is still uncertainty about future supply. As of December 5, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.0558 million tons, the operating rate was 56.55%, the soybean inventory was 7.1552 million tons (down 184,400 tons or 2.51% from last week, up 1.6849 million tons or 30.80% year - on - year), and the soybean meal inventory was 1.1619 million tons (down 41,300 tons or 3.43% from last week, up 481,400 tons or 70.74% year - on - year). The domestic rapeseed meal demand has weakened, the oil mill operation has basically stopped, the rapeseed supply is low, and the granular rapeseed meal inventory is high. As of December 5, the coastal rapeseed inventory was 0 tons (unchanged from last week), and the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.02 million tons (up 0.01 million tons from last week) [5] 3.3 Logic Analysis - The US soybean market is expected to face some pressure due to slow exports, but the decline depth is limited as the price has already reflected most of the bearish factors, and it will mainly fluctuate at a high level. The short - term weather in Brazil has improved, putting pressure on the market. The domestic soybean meal supply may tighten in the future, and there is still price pressure in the medium - to - long - term. The rapeseed meal supply pressure remains obvious. The monthly spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be strongly supported [6] 3.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Participate in laying out a small number of long positions - Arbitrage: Narrow the MRM spread - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [7] 3.5 Soybean Pressing Profit - The table shows the soybean pressing profit data from Brazil with different shipping dates on December 10, 2025, including CNF, CBOT, contract, exchange rate, soybean meal price, soybean oil price, and changes in pressing profit [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term trading strategies**: For soymeal, short - term trading is expected to be bullish with limited upside for the main contract; rapeseed meal will be in short - term oscillation; palm oil may stop falling in stages; soybean oil will experience short - term oscillation; rapeseed oil is short - term bullish; cotton is cautiously bullish; jujube will face pressure in rebound; and live pigs will have a short - term rebound [1]. - **Long - term trends**: For rapeseed meal, the long - term supply - demand situation is strong; for jujube, a bearish attitude is recommended in the long - run under the loose supply - demand pattern; for live pigs, Q4 will likely see a game around the industry's average cash - flow cost [1][14][16]. Summary by Variety Soymeal - **Market conditions**: The Brazilian planting progress is behind last year, and rainfall is expected to be below normal. Domestic soymeal and soybean inventories are high, but the sales pressure on oil mills has decreased. The issue of US soybean import tariffs remains unresolved [1]. - **Price data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3044 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan (-0.36%) from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3105.43 yuan/ton, up 8.57 yuan (0.28%) [2]. - **Inventory data**: As of November 21, 2025, national port soybean inventories were 942.5 million tons, a decrease of 50.10 million tons from last week. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 714.99 million tons, a decrease of 32.72 million tons (4.38%) from last week. The soymeal inventory was 115.15 million tons, an increase of 15.86 million tons (15.97%) from last week [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market conditions**: Coastal oil mills have zero rapeseed inventory and zero crushing. The short - term supply is driven by the arrival and customs clearance of Australian rapeseed. The long - term supply - demand is strong, but the near - term port inventory is high [1][6]. - **Price data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2452 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan (-0.69%) from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2557.37 yuan/ton, down 9.47 yuan (-0.37%) [4]. - **Inventory data**: As of November 21, the coastal oil mill rapeseed inventory was 0 million tons, unchanged from last week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.01 million tons, a decrease of 0.19 million tons from last week [6]. Palm Oil - **Market conditions**: The supply - demand situation is gradually improving. The EU's delay in implementing the deforestation - free law and floods in Southeast Asia have raised expectations of a production - reduction season. However, there is a high probability of inventory accumulation in November [7][8]. - **Inventory data**: As of November 21, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 66.71 million tons, an increase of 1.39 million tons (2.13%) from last week [7]. - **Export data**: From November 1 - 25, 2025, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil products decreased compared to the same period in October [7]. Cotton - **Market conditions**: US cotton harvesting is nearing completion, and the supply - side story is weakening. The market is trading around the interest - rate cut expectation. In China, the cash - flow of downstream spinning enterprises has improved, and the cotton price has rebounded slightly, but it faces high - inventory and hedging pressure [9][12]. - **Price data**: The futures price of the main contract (CF2601) closed at 13725 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan (0.62%) from the previous day. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 14896 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan (0.03%) [9]. - **Inventory data**: The national commercial cotton inventory increased to 417.94 million tons, higher than the same period [9]. Jujube - **Market conditions**: The new jujube production is clear, and the supply is expected to be in surplus. The downstream demand has not improved significantly. The premium caused by the speculation of production reduction has been mostly squeezed out [14]. - **Price data**: The futures price of the main contract (CJ2601) closed at 9025 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan (-1.37%) from the previous day. The spot price of Kashgar common jujube was 7 yuan/kg, unchanged [13]. - **Inventory data**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 10848 tons, an increase of 518 tons from last week [14]. Live Pigs - **Market conditions**: The current supply - demand situation is weak. The near - month contracts are affected by position - limit approaching, and the short - term spot - futures prices have diverged. The Q4 will see a game around the industry's average cash - flow cost [16]. - **Price data**: The futures price of the main contract (Ih2601) closed at 11465 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan (-1.04%) from the previous day. The national average spot price of live pigs was 11640 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.09%) [15]. - **Inventory and sales data**: The national sample enterprise live - pig inventory increased slightly, and the slaughter volume increased significantly. The number of fertile sows decreased [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Lack of drivers, focus on short - term support [2][4] - **Soybean Oil**: With the rebound of US soybeans, maintaining the strategy of expanding the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [2][4] - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans hit a new high, and Dalian soybean meal may follow the rebound [2][10] - **Soybean No.1**: State reserve purchases have started, and the market shows stability [2][10] - **Corn**: Oscillating [2][13] - **Sugar**: Trading within a range [2][17] - **Cotton**: The impact of seed cotton prices on cotton futures has weakened [2][22] - **Eggs**: Oscillating and adjusting [2][26] - **Hogs**: The price center further shifts down [2][28] - **Peanuts**: Focus on the spot market [2][33] 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil main contract closed at 8,664 yuan/ton (down 1.14%) during the day and 8,676 yuan/ton (up 0.14%) at night; soybean oil main contract closed at 8,110 yuan/ton (down 0.22%) during the day and 8,148 yuan/ton (up 0.47%) at night. The trading volume and open interest of both had certain changes [4] - **News**: From October 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield increased by 4.50% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.20% month - on - month, and production increased by 5.55% month - on - month. The expected export volume from October 1 - 31 was 1,282,036 tons, a 26.54% increase from the previous month [5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil trend intensity is 0; soybean oil trend intensity is 0 [9] Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean No.1 2601 closed at 4,076 yuan/ton (down 0.46%) during the day; DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3,026 yuan/ton (up 0.70%) during the day. The spot prices of soybean meal in different regions had certain increases [10] - **News**: On November 3, CBOT soybean futures closed sharply higher, reaching a 16 - month high, due to the expectation of large - scale Chinese purchases of US soybeans [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal trend intensity is +1; soybean No.1 trend intensity is 0 [12] Corn - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of C2511 and C2601 had certain changes, and the trading volume, open interest, and basis also had corresponding data [14] - **News**: The northern corn bulk shipping and containerized grain collection prices were basically flat, while the prices in Guangdong Shekou decreased by 20 yuan/ton [15] - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [16] Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The original sugar price was 14.65 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,700 yuan/ton, and the futures main contract price was 5,499 yuan/ton. The spreads and basis also had corresponding data [17] - **News**: Brazil's sugar production in the second half of September increased by 11% year - on - year, and exports decreased. China's sugar imports in September were 550,000 tons (+150,000 tons) [17] - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is 0 [20] Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2601 closed at 13,600 yuan/ton (up 0.04%) during the day, and CY2601 closed at 19,920 yuan/ton (up 0.23%) during the day. The trading volume, open interest, and basis had corresponding changes [22] - **News**: The cotton spot trading was sluggish, and the cotton yarn market was generally stable. Some high - count yarns had better sales, while low - count yarns had fewer new orders [23] - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [25] Eggs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of egg 2512 and egg 2601 had certain increases, and the spot prices in different regions also had corresponding changes [26] - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [26] Hogs - **Fundamentals**: The spot prices in different regions decreased to varying degrees, and the futures prices of different contracts also decreased. The trading volume, open interest, and basis had corresponding changes [30] - **News**: Yuexiu and Yangxiang added delivery warehouses, and the national feed output in September was 30.36 million tons, a 3.4% month - on - month increase and a 5% year - on - year increase [32] - **Trend Intensity**: Hog trend intensity is -1 [31] Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: The spot prices of different peanut varieties had certain changes, and the futures prices of PK511 and PK601 decreased slightly. The trading volume, open interest, and basis had corresponding data [33] - **News**: The peanut spot market in different regions had different performances, with some areas having stable prices and some having a slightly stronger trend [34] - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [35]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive trend prediction**: Soybean No. 1, soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil are rated with three stars, indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. - **Negative trend prediction**: Rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs are rated with one star, suggesting a bias towards short - term trends but poor operability on the trading floor [1]. Core Views - The prices of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as trade relations, supply and demand, and policies. Different agricultural products have different price trends and investment suggestions [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean No. 1 - The main contract of soybean No. 1 futures rebounded rapidly from the low today, covering the decline of the previous two days and accompanied by an increase in positions. The domestic soybean auction had a premium, with an average transaction price of 3,925 yuan/ton and a premium of 0 - 140 yuan/ton. The transaction rate was 34.49%. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans stopped falling and rebounded slightly. Short - term attention should be paid to the performance of the imported soybean trade and the policy guidance of domestic soybeans [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - Affected by the easing of Sino - US negotiations, US soybeans rose continuously this week, and the 2601 contract of Dalian Commodity Exchange decreased its positions by more than 70,000 lots and rose 1.40% today. The current domestic soybean arrivals are sufficient, the soybean crushing volume is stable, the soybean meal pick - up has increased, and the soybean meal inventory has decreased slightly on a weekly basis. Attention should be paid to the APEC summit at the end of the month. Amid many uncertainties in Sino - US trade, continue to wait and see and look for long - position opportunities after the Sino - US trade issue is resolved [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The main contract of US soybeans continued to rise. Although the Brazilian soybean CIF premium fell and the RMB continued to appreciate, the domestic imported soybean cost still increased. The futures market showed a pattern of strong meal and weak oil, and the soybean crushing profit was still in the red. Short - term attention should be paid to the risk of the oil - to - meal ratio correction. In the long run, palm oil is expected to be resilient, and it is recommended to allocate vegetable oils on dips. In the short term, be cautious about the price correction of palm oil due to the pressure in the Malaysian market [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed meal rose significantly, and the rapeseed sector was stronger than its competitors, which was related to market concerns about Sino - Australian relations. The export of Australian rapeseed to China is not yet stable. The Russian rapeseed has been listed for crushing, and its export trade to China is not optimistic. The rapeseed oil price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, while the rapeseed meal price has short - term rebound momentum [6]. Corn - The Dalian corn futures rose 0.28% today. The supply of new corn in the Northeast continues, and the price has risen slightly. The new corn in Jilin may be listed in large quantities again soon, which will suppress the market price. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. With the possible easing of Sino - US relations, the corn import situation should be continuously monitored. The Dalian corn is expected to continue to run weakly at the bottom [7]. Live Pigs - The live pig futures weakened significantly today, showing a divergence between the futures and spot markets. The spot price continued to rise, with the national average slaughter price reaching 12.5 yuan/kg, up 0.3 yuan. The futures increased positions and declined, with the near - month contract leading the decline. Although the supply pressure is still large, the large price difference between fattening pigs may promote second - round fattening and hog retention, and the pork consumption is expected to improve in the fourth quarter. However, due to the continuous supply pressure, a short - position strategy is recommended after the price rebounds. The pig price is likely to form a double - bottom pattern, and a second bottom may occur in the first half of next year [8]. Eggs - The egg futures failed to continue the previous upward trend, opening lower this morning and oscillating downward throughout the day without filling the gap. The near - month contract led the decline today, and the positions decreased by 10,000 lots. The spot price in Hebei started to fall, with a large decline in the price of small eggs. In the medium term, the industry needs to accelerate the elimination of old hens. The unsold cold - storage eggs are also a potential pressure on the spot market. A short - position strategy is recommended at high prices [9].