新华财经纽约10月3日电（记者徐静）芝加哥期货交易所玉米、小麦和大豆期价3日涨跌不一。 当天，芝加哥期货交易所玉米市场交投最活跃的12月合约收于每蒲式耳4.19美元，比前一交易日下跌 2.75美分，跌幅为0.65%；小麦12月合约收于每蒲式耳5.15美元，比前一交易日上涨0.5美分，涨幅为 0.1%；大豆11月合约收于每蒲式耳10.18美元，比前一交易日下跌5.75美分，跌幅为0.56%。 新一轮投资在新月份／季度涌入芝加哥期货交易所 (CBOT) 农产品期货，预计下周初投资流将放缓，农 作物规模、产量将重新成为市场关注焦点。由于特朗普的贸易战，美国国会很难马上就向美国农民发放 100亿至140亿美元补贴达成一致。"特朗普钱"或在12月底或2026年到达美国农民手里。 美国农民大豆收割正在加速，预计下周末大豆收割完成。之后玉米收割将开始。 巴西农户下周大豆播种将加速。南美洲天气有利于农作物生长，让芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品 价格难以维持上涨势头。美国及全球小麦、玉米和大豆供应过剩，南美洲新作物上市也加剧了供应过 剩。市场分析机构建议价格上涨即卖出。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号: F03110419 2025/9/30 | 指标 | | 9月29日 | 涨跌 | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 日照 | 87 -3 | -26 -26 | 1600 1200 400 | こここで 18/19 ----- 22/23 | ====== 19/20 == | == - 24/25 | == - 25/26 | | | 天津 | 67 | | | | | | | | | | | | 800 | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 (对主力合约) | 张家港 | 7 | | -400 | | | | | | | | | | 01/21 | 02/21 03/24 04/24 | 05/25 06/25 07/26 08/26 09/26 | | 10/27 11/27 12/28 | | | 东莞 | -3 | -6 | | | M1-M5 | | | | | | ...

2025年09月15日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 15 日 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：美豆油获得支撑，棕榈低多为主 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆收涨，关注中美谈判结果 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆偏强，连粕或反弹 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：区间震荡为主 | 7 | | 棉花：注意新棉收购情况 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：现货旺季将过，库存仍高 | 10 | | 生猪：现货弱势难改，政策偏强 | 11 | | 花生：关注新花生上市 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 品 研 究 棕榈油：美豆油获得支撑，棕榈低多为主 豆油：美豆收涨，关注中美谈判结果 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价（夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: The fundamentals have no new drivers, and it is waiting for a pullback [2][4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The trading of soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has paused, and it is undergoing a correction [2][4]. - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight, US soybeans closed higher, and Dalian soybean meal may rebound and fluctuate [2][9]. - **Soybean No. 1**: It rebounds after an oversold situation [2][9]. - **Corn**: It is moving in a volatile manner [2][12]. - **Sugar**: It is consolidating within a range [2][16]. - **Cotton**: The futures price volatility has increased due to news [2][21]. - **Eggs**: There is strong near - term trading [2][28]. - **Hogs**: At the end of the month, the supply volume decreased, and the price rebounded [2][30]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [2][34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals Tracking**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,320 yuan/ton with a - 0.26% change, and the night - session was 9,290 yuan/ton with a - 0.32% change. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,398 yuan/ton with a - 0.52% change, and the night - session was 8,312 yuan/ton with a - 1.02% change [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 31 were 1,421,486 tons. Indonesia will raise the export tax on crude palm oil in September to $124 per ton from $74 in August [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both palm oil and soybean oil have a trend intensity of 0 [8]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 1 - **Fundamentals Tracking**: DCE soybean No. 1 2511's daily - session closing price was 3,945 yuan/ton with a + 0.46% change, and the night - session was 3,959 yuan/ton with a + 0.66% change. DCE soybean meal 2601's daily - session closing price was 3,055 yuan/ton with a + 0.53% change, and the night - session was 3,060 yuan/ton with a + 0.43% change [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 29, CBOT soybeans closed higher due to technical buying. China's potential non - procurement of US soybeans still weighs on the market. US North Dakota's soybean yield may be limited by cold weather in spring [9][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybean No. 1 have a trend intensity of + 1 [11]. Corn - **Fundamentals Tracking**: The closing price of C2509 was 2,238 yuan/ton with a - 0.27% daily change and 2,248 yuan/ton with a 0.45% night - session change. The closing price of C2511 was 2,191 yuan/ton with a 0.60% daily change and 2,192 yuan/ton with a 0.05% night - session change [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn port - collection prices range from 2,200 - 2,240 yuan/ton, and Guangdong Shekou's prices range from 2,350 - 2,370 yuan/ton [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [15]. Sugar - **Fundamentals Tracking**: The raw sugar price was 16.37 cents/pound with a - 0.13 change. The mainstream spot price was 5,940 yuan/ton with a - 10 change [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - estimated. India's monsoon precipitation is 6.1% higher than the long - period average. China imported 740,000 tons of sugar in July [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of 0 [19]. Cotton - **Fundamentals Tracking**: CF2601's daily - session closing price was 14,240 yuan/ton with a 1.21% change, and the night - session was 14,015 yuan/ton with a - 1.58% change. CY2511's daily - session closing price was 20,140 yuan/ton with a 0.25% change, and the night - session was 19,960 yuan/ton with a - 0.89% change [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The domestic cotton spot market has weak trading, and the basis is stable. ICE cotton futures were weak due to concerns about export prospects [23][24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [25]. Eggs - **Fundamentals Tracking**: The closing price of egg 2510 was 2,939 yuan/500 kg with a - 0.41% change, and egg 2601 was 3,322 yuan/500 kg with a 0.24% change [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [28]. Hogs - **Fundamentals Tracking**: Henan's spot price was 13,780 yuan/ton, Sichuan's was 13,250 yuan/ton, and Guangdong's was 14,740 yuan/ton. The closing price of hog 2511 was 13,555 yuan/ton, hog 2601 was 13,870 yuan/ton, and hog 2603 was 13,135 yuan/ton [30]. - **Market Logic**: At the weekend, large - scale hog producers reduced supply, and the spot price rebounded. There is still supply pressure in September. Consider shorting the spread between November and January contracts [32]. - **Trend Intensity**: Hogs have a trend intensity of 1 [31]. Peanuts - **Fundamentals Tracking**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 7,700 yuan/ton, and Henan Baisha general peanuts was 8,600 yuan/ton. The closing price of PK510 was 7,978 yuan/ton with a - 0.72% change, and PK511 was 7,784 yuan/ton with a - 0.26% change [34]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In some peanut - producing areas, the supply volume was affected by rain, and new peanuts are expected to be listed around September 20 [35]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - International soybean market supply - demand situation has improved, with supply - side pressure easing, but there are still price adjustment factors at home and abroad. For sugar, international sugar is expected to fluctuate, and domestic sugar will follow the international trend. In the oil market, palm oil may continue to increase production and accumulate inventory, while domestic soybean oil pressure is released, and rapeseed oil is marginally destocked. Corn has a supply shortage in China, and prices may fall. Pig prices have supply pressure but limited downward space. Peanut prices are stable with some downward pressure, and egg prices are under supply - side pressure. Apple prices are expected to be high at the beginning of the new season, and cotton prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [4][6][12][19][25][35][39][46][56][63] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index rose 0.14% to 1065 cents/bushel, CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.4% to 296.1 dollars/short ton [2] - **Relevant Information**: EU 2025/26 soybean and rapeseed imports decreased compared to last year; Brazil's soybean exports reached a high in the week of August 25; Argentina plans to reduce soybean planting area; domestic soybean inventory increased slightly, and meal inventory increased [2][3] - **Logic Analysis**: International soybean supply - demand is more balanced, but there are price adjustment factors at home and abroad [4][6] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Long bean and rapeseed meal in the far - month contract at low prices; expand the MRM05 spread at low prices; buy call options [10] Sugar - **External Market Change**: ICE US raw sugar price fluctuated, up 0.18%; London white sugar price rose 0.43% [8] - **Important Information**: Brazil's sugar exports in the first four weeks of August increased slightly; domestic processing sugar quotes were stable; ICE raw sugar futures + options positions changed, with an increase in net short positions [9][11] - **Logic Analysis**: Internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, but actual sugar production is lower than expected, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Domestically, domestic sugar prices are affected by international prices [12] - **Position Suggestion**: In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar prices are expected to follow the international market and fluctuate slightly; wait and see for arbitrage; consider selling out - of - the - money strangles [13][14][15] Oil - **External Market**: CBOT US soybean oil price changed by 0.19%, BMD Malaysian palm oil price fell 0.43% [18] - **Relevant Information**: Malaysian palm oil production decreased in August; the US may exempt Indonesia's palm oil from tariffs; India's vegetable oil industry calls for tax refund policy adjustment; Russia will resume export tariffs on sunflower oil [18][19] - **Logic Analysis**: Malaysian palm oil may continue to increase production and inventory, but Indonesian prices support the market. Domestic soybean oil pressure is released, and rapeseed oil is destocked [19] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips for single - side trading; expand the P15 spread on dips; wait and see for options [19][21] Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Change**: CBOT corn futures fell 0.7% [22] - **Important Information**: Russia raised its wheat production forecast; domestic corn prices fell, and the import corn auction had a 15%成交 rate; different types of enterprises' corn consumption changed [23][24] - **Logic Analysis**: US corn may rebound, and domestic corn prices may fall [25][27] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips for external 12 - month corn and domestic 01 - month corn; wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29][30] Pig - **Relevant Information**: Pig prices in various regions decreased; piglet and sow prices fell; the average wholesale price of pork decreased [32] - **Logic Analysis**: Pig supply increased slightly, and prices are under pressure but with limited downward space [35] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Long in the far - month contract at low prices; conduct LH91 reverse arbitrage; wait and see for options [36] Peanut - **Important Information**: Peanut prices fell, new - season peanuts were on the market, oil mill开机率 was low, peanut meal sales were slow, and inventory decreased [37][38] - **Logic Analysis**: Peanut prices are under pressure, and the 01 - month contract may bottom - oscillate [39] - **Trading Strategy**: Short 11 - month and 01 - month peanuts at high prices, long 05 - month peanuts lightly; wait and see for arbitrage; sell pk601 - C - 8200 options [40][41][42] Egg - **Important Information**: Egg prices rose in most regions; the number of laying hens increased; egg sales decreased; inventory increased; egg - raising profits improved [43][44][45] - **Trading Logic**: Supply - side pressure is high, and prices are under pressure [46] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rallies; short near - month contracts and long far - month contracts before and after the Spring Festival; sell out - of - the - money call options [47][48][49] Apple - **Important Information**: Apple cold - storage inventory decreased; imports increased and exports decreased; early - maturing apples were on the market, and prices were polarized; storage profits decreased [52][53][54] - **Trading Logic**: Spot inventory is low, new - season apple prices may be high at the beginning [56] - **Trading Strategy**: Long at low prices, roll operations; wait and see for arbitrage; sell put options [61] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market Impact**: ICE US cotton fell 1.05% [59] - **Important Information**: Indian cotton weekly and cumulative listings decreased; US cotton growth progress was slow but with a high good - quality rate; China announced the quota for cotton import tariff - rate quota [60][62] - **Trading Logic**: Tariff impact is weakened, supply is tight, and demand is expected to improve [63] - **Trading Strategy**: Both US and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to be slightly stronger, wait and see for arbitrage and options [64]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - All the varieties (soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, cotton, red dates, and live pigs) are rated as "short-term bullish" [1] Core Views - **Soybean Meal**: Short-term bullish, but chasing long positions requires caution. The final area and yield data are awaited for new guidance [1][4] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short-term bullish. Opportunities for short-term long positions on dips can be considered, but chasing long positions should be done with caution. Attention should be paid to the subsequent progress of China-Australia relations and Canada's response to China's anti-dumping results [1][6] - **Palm Oil**: Short-term bullish, with a focus on buying on dips. The impact of the Russia-Ukraine negotiation on crude oil prices and the actual export and production of Malaysian palm oil this month should be monitored [1][7] - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish. Consider buying on dips due to the low valuation of international cotton prices. The short-term rhythm of Zhengzhou cotton focuses on the supply before the new cotton is listed [1][11] - **Red Dates**: Cautiously bullish. The market is recommended to buy on dips for now, with the strategy expected to be strong first and then weak [1][14] - **Live Pigs**: Cautiously bullish. It is not advisable to blindly short in the short term. Attention can be paid to establishing long positions in distant contracts on dips or conducting reverse arbitrage operations around strong contracts [1][17] Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: The planting weather of US soybeans is generally smooth. China is in the inventory accumulation stage for soybeans and soybean meal, with the inventory accumulation rate expected to slow down in August. The US Department of Agriculture's August supply and demand report unexpectedly lowered the US soybean planting area but increased the yield per unit, resulting in a decrease in the final US soybean production and ending inventory [1] - **Price and Inventory**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.03%. The national average spot price was 3101.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.32%. As of August 15, the national port soybean inventory was 892.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.2 million tons from last week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 680.4 million tons, a decrease of 30.16 million tons from last week; the soybean meal inventory was 101.47 million tons, an increase of 1.12 million tons from last week [2][3] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a bullish and volatile view, but be cautious when chasing long positions. Pay attention to the final area and yield data [1][4] Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: The global rapeseed production has recovered year-on-year, but there is a risk of a decrease in the yield per unit of Canadian rapeseed. China's oil mill rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories are decreasing month-on-month, but the inventory is still at a relatively high level year-on-year. The 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the anti-dumping deposit on rapeseed provide strong support for the rapeseed meal price [1] - **Price and Inventory**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2627 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.88%. The national average spot price was 2675.26 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.40%. As of August 15, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 11.5 million tons, a decrease of 2.38 million tons from last week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 2.55 million tons, a decrease of 0.65 million tons from last week [5] - **Operation Suggestion**: Short-term bullish. Opportunities for short-term long positions on dips can be considered, but chasing long positions should be done with caution. Pay attention to the subsequent progress of China-Australia relations and Canada's response to China's anti-dumping results [1][6] Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are beneficial to the consumption expectation of the palm oil market, and there is purchasing demand from China and India. The export data in the first 20 days of August are good [1] - **Inventory and Export**: As of August 15, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 61.73 million tons, an increase of 1.75 million tons from last week. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil products from August 1 - 20 was 869,780 tons, a 17.5% increase from the same period last month [7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Short-term bullish, with a focus on buying on dips. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine negotiation on crude oil prices and the actual export and production of Malaysian palm oil this month [1][7] Cotton - **Market Situation**: The short-term soil moisture of US cotton continues to improve, which is negative for the market. The demand side still faces a shortage. However, the international cotton price is at a relatively low valuation level. The short-term rhythm of Zhengzhou cotton focuses on the supply before the new cotton is listed [1][11] - **Price and Inventory**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, CF2509, decreased by 0.50% to 14055 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price decreased by 0.03% to 15239 yuan/ton. The ICE cotton main contract decreased by 0.04% to 67.53 cents/pound. The domestic cotton commercial inventory decreased by 15.06 million tons to 185.61 million tons [8][9] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish. Consider buying on dips. Pay attention to the potential hurricane threat to US cotton in the future and the "Golden September and Silver October" market performance of the downstream [1][11] Red Dates - **Market Situation**: It is initially estimated that the total expected production of the Xinjiang southern Xinjiang red date market in the 2025/26 season is in the range of 500,000 - 580,000 tons, with a confirmed production reduction, but the reduction amplitude is likely to be less than that in the 2023/24 season. In the short term, the market speculation period around the purchase price before November is relatively long, and the recent inventory reduction speed has accelerated, which is beneficial to the bullish trend [1][14] - **Price and Inventory**: The main contract of red dates, CJ2601, decreased by 0.77% to 11530 yuan/ton. The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 9686 tons, a decrease of 98 tons from last week, but still higher than the same period [12][13] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish. The strategy is expected to be strong first and then weak. Currently, the market is recommended to buy on dips [1][14] Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume of Steel Union sample enterprises in August increased by 5.26% month-on-month, and there is still supply pressure. In the medium term, the number of newborn piglets from January to July continued to increase, and it is expected that the slaughter volume of live pigs in the second half of the year will still have room for growth. In the long term, the inventory of breeding sows in June was 40.43 million, and there will still be relatively high supply pressure until May 2026. However, the incremental capacity of large-scale breeding enterprises is basically zero, and the inventory of small and medium-sized farmers has even decreased slightly [1][16][17] - **Price and Inventory**: The main contract of live pigs, Lh2511, decreased by 0.72% to 13775 yuan/ton, and the domestic live pig spot price remained stable at 14340 yuan/ton. The national sample enterprise live pig inventory was 37.6332 million, an increase of 1.17% from last month; the slaughter volume was 10.9168 million, a decrease of 3.01% from last month [15][16] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish. It is not advisable to blindly short in the short term. Attention can be paid to establishing long positions in distant contracts on dips or conducting reverse arbitrage operations around strong contracts [1][17]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **豆一**: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **豆粕**: ★☆★, with a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - **豆油**: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **标油**: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the market operability is poor, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] - **菜粕**: ★☆☆, being bullish, with a driving force for price increase but limited market operability [1] - **菜油**: ★☆☆, being bullish, with a driving force for price increase but limited market operability [1] - **玉米**: ★☆★, with a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - **生猪**: ★☆☆, being bearish, with a driving force for price decline but limited market operability [1] - **鸡蛋**: ★★☆, indicating a clear downward trend and the market is in the process of fermentation [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the agricultural product market is complex, with different products showing different price trends and investment opportunities. Some products are affected by supply - demand relationships, some by international trade policies, and others by weather and policy factors [2][3][6] Summary by Product Soybeans - **Domestic soybeans**: The short - term large number of auctions drags down the price. The price of domestic soybeans is relatively low in valuation, and short - term attention should be paid to the fluctuations of surrounding varieties and policy guidance [2] - **U.S. soybeans**: The new - season soybeans have a reduced planting area but an increased yield per unit, and the ending inventory decreases year - on - year, which boosts the price. There is a risk of high temperature and low precipitation in some areas in the short term [2] Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The rapeseed series main contracts continue to be weak, and the rapeseed meal position increases significantly. The market has strong expectations for importing Australian rapeseed. If the trade between China and Australia grows rapidly after the new Australian rapeseed is launched in October, the rapeseed series futures prices may be under short - term pressure. The rapeseed series maintains a medium - term bullish view, but the futures prices may be under short - term pressure [2][5] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Indonesia is negotiating with the U.S. on zero - tariff palm oil imports. The Indonesian government will crack down on illegal natural resource exploitation, and 5 million hectares of palm plantations are under review. The price difference between Malaysian 24 - degree palm oil and Argentine soybean oil has rapidly narrowed. The long - term biodiesel policy in the U.S. remains unchanged, but there is a risk of phased demand fluctuations. Short - term attention should be paid to the impact of position changes on price trends [3] Corn - The Dalian corn futures return to the downward trend. The U.S. corn continues to decline, with a good growth rate. The domestic corn supply remains high without policy guidance and under the background of the decline in U.S. corn prices. Corn may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [6] Pigs - The spot price of pigs is stable but weak, and the futures price rebounds slightly. The supply of pigs is expected to be high in the second half of the year, and the spot price is expected to continue to decline. The government may provide support when the price drops to a certain range. It is recommended that the industry conduct hedging when the price rises [7] Eggs - The spot price of eggs is stable but strong, and the near - month futures price fluctuates at a low level. The trading logic of the egg futures market is still to reduce production capacity through price decline. Attention should be paid to the performance of the spot price, the game between peak - season demand and cold - storage egg release, and the progress of production capacity elimination [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Palm oil: With both supply and demand booming in the producing areas, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [2][5] - Soybean oil: The reduction in the US soybean planting area provides a theme for price increases [2][5] - Soybean meal: The USDA report is bullish, and the Dalian soybean meal futures follow the rise of US soybeans [2][12] - Soybean: The atmosphere in the soybean market is bullish, and the futures price may rebound [2][12] - Corn: It is expected to move in a range [2][17] - Sugar: Both domestic and international markets are showing upward momentum [2][20] - Cotton: News related to import quotas boosts cotton prices [2][25] - Eggs: There is a sentiment of price rebound in the spot market [2][30] - Hogs: Near - term contracts have position limits, and the industrial sector has a strong willingness to deliver [2][32] - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the spot market [2][36] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,362 yuan/ton with a 1.56% increase, and the night - session closing price was 9,414 yuan/ton with a 0.56% increase. For soybean oil, the daily - session closing price was 8,488 yuan/ton with a 0.38% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8,516 yuan/ton with a 0.33% increase. Rapeseed oil had a significant increase, with the daily - session closing price at 9,802 yuan/ton (+2.23%) and the night - session closing price at 10,079 yuan/ton (+2.83%) [6] - **Macro and Industry News**: The Ministry of Commerce announced a preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, imposing a 75.8% deposit rate. ICE Canadian rapeseed futures closed sharply lower, with the benchmark contract down 4.5%. The US will continue to suspend the 24% additional tariff on US imports for 90 days, retaining a 10% tariff. According to the USDA's August supply - demand report, the US 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to be 4.292 billion bushels, lower than the market expectation of 4.365 billion bushels. Indian 2024/25 soybean oil imports are expected to soar 60% year - on - year, while palm oil imports may reach a five - year low. Malaysian palm oil inventories are expected to remain high [7][9][10] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking**: DCE soybean 2511 closed at 4,034 yuan/ton in the daily session (-0.71%) and 4,035 yuan/ton in the night session (+0.05%). DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3,091 yuan/ton in the daily session (+0.72%) and 3,092 yuan/ton in the night session (+0.59%) [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 12, CBOT soybean futures rose for the second consecutive day due to lower - than - expected production and tight supply. The USDA lowered the 2025/2026 soybean production forecast from 4.335 billion bushels in July to 4.292 billion bushels [12][14] Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of C2509 was 2,260 yuan/ton in the daily session (+0.04%) and 2,273 yuan/ton in the night session (+0.58%). The closing price of C2511 was 2,198 yuan/ton in the daily session (-0.14%) and 2,207 yuan/ton in the night session (+0.41%) [15] - **Macro and Industry News**: The northern corn collection port price was 2,250 - 2,270 yuan/ton, and the container collection price was 2,330 - 2,350 yuan/ton. The price in Guangdong Shekou was stable. Corn prices in Northeast China were weak, while those in North China showed mixed trends [16] Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: The raw sugar price was 16.95 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,950 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5,608 yuan/ton [20] - **Macro and Industry News**: In Brazil, the sugar - cane crushing progress in the central - southern region accelerated in the first half of July. Indian monsoon precipitation decreased temporarily. Brazil exported 3.36 million tons of sugar in June, a 5% year - on - year increase. China imported 420,000 tons of sugar in June. CAOC estimated the domestic sugar production and consumption for the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons. ISO expected a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 season [20][21][22] Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of CF2601 was 13,980 yuan/ton in the daily session (+0.72%) and 14,090 yuan/ton in the night session (+0.79%). ICE cotton futures rose significantly due to the bullish USDA monthly supply - demand report, which lowered the 2025/26 US cotton planting area and production [25][27] - **Macro and Industry News**: The domestic cotton spot trading showed little change, with a slight improvement in some areas. The cotton yarn market improved slightly due to downstream restocking, but orders were still limited [26] Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of egg 2509 was 3,311 yuan/500 kilograms (-0.15%), and the closing price of egg 2601 was 3,559 yuan/500 kilograms (+0.11%) [30] Hogs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The Henan spot price was 13,880 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 13,350 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 15,290 yuan/ton. The closing price of hog 2509 was 13,965 yuan/ton (-5), and the closing price of hog 2511 was 14,230 yuan/ton (+90) [32] - **Market Logic**: The planned slaughter volume of group farms in August increased, while individual farmers had passive inventory. Demand growth was limited, and market pressure was high. The 9 - month contract entered the pre - delivery month, and the industrial delivery willingness increased [34] Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: The prices of important spot peanuts in Liaoning, Henan, and other places were stable. The closing price of PK510 was 8,080 yuan/ton (+0.05%), and the closing price of PK511 was 7,944 yuan/ton (+0.20%) [36] - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, the supply of peanuts was affected by rain, and the price was stable. In Jiangxi, the price was slightly stronger, while in other regions, the price was generally stable [36][37]

Report Investment Ratings - **Beans and Meal**: Large - range oscillation [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Large - range oscillation [1] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term consolidation [1] - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Jujube**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Live Pigs**: Cautiously bullish [1] Core Views - **Beans and Meal**: Amid the interplay of weak fundamentals and cost support from Sino - US trade tariffs, it shows a large - range oscillation. This week, there was inventory reduction, and the good - quality rate of US soybeans decreased month - on - month, which is bullish. However, there is a risk of an upward adjustment in the US soybean yield in the August USDA report, so be cautious about chasing long positions. Focus on the next USDA monthly supply - demand report [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Under the influence of multiple long and short factors, it presents a large - range market. Although the global rapeseed output has recovered year - on - year, there is a risk of a yield reduction in Canada. The import of rapeseed from August to October is significantly lower year - on - year, and the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed support the price. But the improvement in Canadian rapeseed import profit exerts downward pressure. Pay attention to the planting weather, yield estimates, Sino - Canadian relations, and Sino - Australian developments [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are bullish for the consumption outlook of the palm oil market, and there is purchasing demand from China and India. However, there may be inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil in July, which could suppress short - term prices. Consider the support of biodiesel policies and look for opportunities to go long on dips. Also, pay attention to domestic palm oil purchases in the past three months and beware of the risk of short - term squeeze [1][10]. - **Cotton**: The moisture condition in the main cotton - producing areas of the US continues to deteriorate slightly, and the export improvement expectation is limited. The ICE market is expected to move in a narrow range. In China, the guaranteed output of new cotton has increased, and the high - temperature risk has been lifted, but the risk of rainy days in the future needs attention. The commercial inventory is still being depleted rapidly, and there is no quota issuance at the import end, providing short - term support. The downstream may gradually enter the stocking period, and there is an expected marginal improvement in the spinning mill's operating rate and future orders. Before the new cotton is launched, the downside space is limited, and it is advisable to establish long positions on dips [1][14]. - **Jujube**: There are still significant differences in the market regarding the reduction range, and the possibility of an over - expected reduction is still in doubt, with speculation risks remaining. High - inventory pressure restricts the rebound height before the final output is determined. It is recommended to be cautious and try long positions [1][17]. - **Live Pigs**: The previous second - fattening sales and the acceleration of short - term sales rhythm have pushed down the price of live pigs. However, the recovery of the price difference between standard and fat pigs still drives some second - fattening speculation, so the near - term contracts are weak but have certain support. The medium - and long - term production capacity remains at a high level, and the gradual reduction of production capacity by leading enterprises may help the far - term contracts rise. The overall situation is "weak reality, strong expectation". Continue to pay attention to the reverse - spread strategy and the opportunity to establish long positions on dips for far - term contracts [1][20]. Summary by Directory Beans and Meal - **Inventory Data**: As of August 1, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 8.237 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 152,000 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 6.5559 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 100,000 tons, and the bean meal inventory was 1.0416 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,500 tons [3]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main bean meal contract closed at 3,045 yuan/ton, up 0.46% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,015.43 yuan/ton, up 0.33% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory Data**: As of August 1, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 116,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21,000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 27,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,000 tons [7]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main rapeseed meal contract closed at 2,773 yuan/ton, up 1.24% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,725.26 yuan/ton, up 1.07% [5]. Palm Oil - **Inventory Data**: As of August 1, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 582,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,300 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 3,400 tons [9]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main palm oil contract closed at 8,980 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day. The national average price was 9,108 yuan/ton, up 1.26% [8]. Cotton - **Inventory Data**: The cotton commercial inventory dropped to 2.0067 million tons, 210,000 tons lower than the same period. The inventory depletion has not significantly slowed down [13]. - **Price Data**: The main Zhengzhou cotton contract CF2509 decreased by 0.22% to 13,640 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price decreased by 0.10% to 15,193 yuan/ton [11][12]. Jujube - **Inventory Data**: This week, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9,784 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 255 tons, and 4,379 tons higher than the same period [16]. - **Price Data**: The main jujube contract CJ2601 increased by 3.59% to 11,540 yuan/ton [16]. Live Pigs - **Inventory and Output Data**: In August, the planned output of Steel Union sample enterprises was 13.2257 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 5.26%. The national sample enterprises' live - pig inventory was 37.6332 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%, and the output was 10.9168 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 3.01% [18][19]. - **Price Data**: The main live - pig contract Lh2511 increased by 0.96% to 14,180 yuan/ton, and the domestic live - pig spot price remained stable at 14,340 yuan/ton [18][19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybeans: ☆☆☆ (Buy) [1] - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ (Buy) [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ (Strong Buy) [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ (Strong Buy) [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ☆☆☆ (Buy) [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ (Strong Buy) [1] - Corn: ★★★ (Strong Buy) [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ (Weak Buy) [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ (Weak Buy) [1] Core Views - The prices of "anti - involution" commodities continued to decline, and the focus of the market was on them, making agricultural products less attractive. The third - round economic and trade negotiations between China and the US suspended the addition of tariffs, which may be extended for 90 days. The US soybean is likely to have an early - stage high - yield expectation, and the market should be treated as volatile for now [3]. - For soybeans, the domestic soybean contract price showed a volatile correction. In the short term, attention should be paid to weather and policy guidance. The US Midwest has good weather, which is conducive to a high - yield of US soybeans [2]. - Regarding soybean oil and palm oil, the price difference between US and Chinese soybean oil may cause Chinese soybean oil to strengthen in the medium - term. Due to the long - term development of US and Indonesian biodiesel and the palm oil's entry into the production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter, a strategy of buying on dips is maintained [4]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, the prices of domestic and foreign rapeseed products are mainly in a range - bound state. The supply of new - season Canadian rapeseed is affected by weather, and the trade relationship between the US and Canada may affect the export of Canadian rapeseed products. In the short - term, a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [6]. - For corn, the auction results of imported corn were average, and the corn futures continued to run weakly in a volatile manner. The US corn is under pressure, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom [7]. - For live pigs, the futures prices continued to correct, and the supply is expected to be sufficient in the medium - term. It is recommended that the industry conduct hedging when prices are high [8]. - For eggs, the near - month futures prices of eggs continued to fall to new lows, while the far - month futures were relatively resistant to decline. If the egg prices can reduce production capacity through price drops in the second half of this year, the egg price cycle may reverse next year [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - The domestic soybean main - contract price showed a volatile correction. The total trading volume of domestic soybean purchase and sale was 40,302 tons, with a base price of 4,200 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 4,268 yuan/ton. In the short term, there is a risk of waterlogging in low - lying farmland in Northeast China. The US Midwest has good weather, and there may be a high - yield of US soybeans this year [2]. - The "anti - involution" commodities continued to decline, and the US soybean is under pressure. About 5% of the US soybean - producing areas were affected by drought as of July 29, and the good - quality rate of US soybeans is 70%, at a high level in the same period of history. There may be an early - stage high - yield expectation for US soybeans, and the market should be treated as volatile for now [3]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The price difference between US and Chinese soybean oil rose and then slightly declined this week. Historically, the price difference usually peaks and then falls in the third quarter. In the medium - term, Chinese soybean oil may strengthen to catch up with the overseas market. A strategy of buying on dips is maintained for soybean oil and palm oil, and attention should be paid to the risk of the oil - strong and meal - weak situation [4]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The prices of domestic and foreign rapeseed products are mainly in a range - bound state. The initial inventory of new - season Canadian rapeseed is low, and the yield is closely related to weather. The yield forecast by the Canadian Ministry of Agriculture and Agri - Food in late July is 17.8 million tons. The US has raised the tariff on Canadian goods, which may affect the export of Canadian rapeseed products. In the short - term, a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [6]. Corn - Two auctions of imported corn were held by Sinograin today. The transaction rate of US genetically - modified corn was 31% with a volume of 186,200 tons, and that of Ukrainian non - genetically - modified corn was 68% with a volume of 8,600 tons. The corn futures continued to run weakly in a volatile manner. About 7% of the US corn - producing areas were affected by drought as of July 29, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom [7]. Live Pigs - The live - pig futures prices continued to correct, and the performance of related stocks in the breeding industry was in sync with the futures market. The short - term supply decreased, leading to a rise in spot prices. However, the supply is expected to be sufficient in the medium - term, and it is recommended that the industry conduct hedging when prices are high [8]. Eggs - The near - month futures prices of eggs continued to fall to new lows, while the far - month futures were relatively resistant to decline. The spot prices were stable with a weak trend. If the egg prices can reduce production capacity through price drops in the second half of this year, the egg price cycle may reverse next year, and the far - month futures prices have shown some signs of this expectation [9].