公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 中天科技（600522）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 推荐（维持） 25 年海风景气向好，能源业务出海可期 目标价：15.6 元 事项： 公司发布 24 年年度报告及 25 年一季度报告。2024 年报告期，公司实现营业 收入 480.55 亿元，同比+6.63%；归母净利润为 28.38 亿元，同比-8.94%；扣非 归母净利润 25.45 亿元，同比-4.78%。25Q1 报告期，公司实现营业收入 97.56 亿元，同比+18.37%；归母净利润 6.28 亿元，同比-1.33%；扣非归母净利润 5.97 亿元，同比+20.45%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 48,055 | 57,514 | 59,521 | 61,945 | | 同比增速(%) | 6.6% | 19.7% | 3.5% | 4.1% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 2,838 | 3, ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company with a target price of 15.6 yuan [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 48.055 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.63%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.94% to 2.838 billion yuan. For Q1 2025, the revenue was 9.756 billion yuan, up 18.37% year-on-year, with a net profit of 628 million yuan, down 1.33% [1][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from a favorable wind power market in 2025, with significant growth anticipated in its energy business overseas. The company has a substantial backlog of orders amounting to approximately 31.2 billion yuan, with marine series orders at about 13.4 billion yuan [1][8]. Financial Summary - **2024 Financial Performance**: - Total revenue: 48,055 million yuan - Year-on-year growth: 6.6% - Net profit: 2,838 million yuan - Year-on-year decline: 8.9% - Earnings per share (EPS): 0.83 yuan [3][9] - **2025 Financial Projections**: - Expected total revenue: 57,514 million yuan - Expected net profit: 3,549 million yuan - Expected EPS: 1.04 yuan - Projected PE ratio: 13 [3][9] - **2026 and 2027 Projections**: - 2026 expected revenue: 59,521 million yuan - 2027 expected revenue: 61,945 million yuan - 2026 expected net profit: 3,990 million yuan - 2027 expected net profit: 4,392 million yuan - EPS for 2026: 1.17 yuan, for 2027: 1.29 yuan [3][9]. Business Segments - The company’s revenue from the power sector was 19.785 billion yuan in 2024, showing an increase of 18.18%. The marine business revenue was 3.644 billion yuan, which remained stable, while the optical communication segment saw a decline of 11.19% to 8.094 billion yuan [1][8]. - The power segment contributed significantly to the gross profit, with a gross margin of 15.15%, while the marine segment's performance was affected by operational issues [1][8]. Market Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading player in the international submarine cable market, with expectations of a surge in domestic submarine cable deliveries in 2025. The company has secured orders for European offshore wind cables, which are expected to be delivered starting in 2025 [1][8]. - The international market demand is primarily driven by offshore wind power, power interconnection, and marine oil and gas sectors, with notable growth in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region [1][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, with a target price of RMB 5.20 based on a projected 20x PE for 2025 [1][11]. Core Insights - The company's performance is under pressure due to declining electricity prices and impairment losses, but the sale of hydropower assets is expected to improve earnings in 2025. As a leader in green energy, the company has a solid project pipeline for future growth [4][11]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Projections**: The company is expected to generate revenues of RMB 29.72 billion in 2024, increasing to RMB 34.77 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.1% and 17.0% respectively [2][11]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 6.11 billion in 2024, with a recovery to RMB 7.52 billion in 2025, after a decline of 14.8% in 2024 due to impairment losses [2][11]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is expected to be RMB 0.21 in 2024 and RMB 0.26 in 2025, indicating a gradual recovery [2][11]. Operational Highlights - **Installed Capacity**: As of the end of 2024, the company has 16.44 GW of installed capacity under construction, including 4.87 GW of wind power and 7.45 GW of solar power, which supports its growth strategy [4][11]. - **Revenue Breakdown**: Wind power revenue is projected at RMB 19.82 billion in 2024, while solar power revenue is expected to reach RMB 9.12 billion, showing significant growth in the solar segment [4][11]. Market Position - The company is recognized as an industry leader with significant advantages in offshore wind power, justifying a valuation premium compared to peers [1][11].

Summary of Offshore Wind Power Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The offshore wind power industry in China is expected to see significant growth in 2025, with an estimated installed capacity of 12 GW, a substantial increase from 4-5 GW in 2024, driven by approved and tendered projects as well as the resumption of stalled projects in Jiangsu and Guangdong [1][3][7]. Key Points - **Growth Drivers**: The increase in offshore wind power capacity is supported by a strong pipeline of approved and tendered projects, with over 15 GW of projects expected to be tendered in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 30% [1][8]. - **Seasonal Trends**: The second quarter is identified as a peak construction season, with projects accelerating in shipping and construction since April, leading to a significant increase in overall shipment volume and profitability [1][5]. - **Profit Recovery**: The rise in installed capacity is expected to lead to a recovery in profitability for companies in the supply chain, benefiting from cost dilution and rapid recovery in unit profitability [1][6]. - **Future Outlook**: The outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with expectations of installed capacity reaching 15 GW, particularly in Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Hainan [1][9]. - **Long-term Potential**: The deep-sea wind power market in China holds significant potential, with government policies expected to accelerate development in this area [1][10]. Additional Insights - **Project Resumption**: Specific projects in Jiangsu and Guangdong that had stalled are now resuming, indicating a positive trend in project execution and delivery [1][4]. - **International Opportunities**: The overseas market is also promising, with Europe expected to reach an installed capacity of 8-9 GW by 2026. Leading Chinese companies are actively pursuing international markets and have secured large-scale orders [2][11][12]. - **Investment Timing**: Current market conditions are seen as favorable for investment in the offshore wind sector, with low valuations and clear performance inflection points, particularly for companies involved in pile foundations, submarine cables, and leading turbine manufacturers [1][13].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Dajin Heavy Industry, is experiencing robust growth in its overseas offshore wind power business, highlighted by significant contract wins in Europe, which are expected to enhance its revenue and profitability in the coming years [1][2]. Group 1: Contract Wins and Financial Impact - Dajin Heavy Industry's subsidiary, Penglai Dajin, signed a contract with a European energy company for the supply of super-large monopile products, valued at approximately 1 billion RMB, representing about 26.46% of the company's audited revenue for 2024 [1]. - This contract follows another significant contract signed in March, worth approximately 1.35 million USD (around 986 million RMB), which accounted for about 22.8% of the company's audited revenue for 2023 [1]. - The company's export revenue from 2022 to 2024 shows a steady increase, with figures of 838 million RMB, 1.715 billion RMB, and 1.733 billion RMB, respectively, indicating a growing share of overseas business [2]. Group 2: Profitability and Financial Performance - Dajin Heavy Industry reversed a two-year decline in profitability, achieving a net profit of 474 million RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.46%, and a non-net profit of 433 million RMB, up 17.7% [2]. - The company's gross margin and net margin have been on the rise for three consecutive years, reflecting improved profitability from high-value-added offshore products [2]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a significant surge in performance, with revenue of 1.141 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 146.36%, and a net profit of 231 million RMB, up 335.91% [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Dajin Heavy Industry anticipates a high level of activity in its overseas offshore wind power shipments over the next three years, driven by a strong order backlog and bidding situation [3]. - The company aims to increase its share of quality orders in the European offshore wind infrastructure sector to further enhance its financial performance [3]. - As of Q1 2025, the company's contract liabilities stood at 1.489 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 50.71%, indicating a healthy order book [4].

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电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 5 月 8 日 301155.SZ 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 62.70 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 22.9 13.4 7.7 23.9 相对深圳成指 22.7 5.5 12.2 20.5 发行股数 (百万) 217.39 流通股 (百万) 121.80 总市值 (人民币 百万) 13,630.45 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) 193.73 主要股东 许世俊 31.92% 资料来源：公司公告， ，中银证券 (27%) (12%) 3% 18% 33% 48% May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 海力风电 深圳成指 Wind 以 2025 年 5 月 7 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《海力风电》20240514 《海力风电》20230830 《海力风电》20230428 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 电力设备：风电设 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance as domestic offshore wind construction is expected to accelerate [4]. Core Views - The company reported a significant improvement in gross margin in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 10.00 percentage points to 15.05% [3]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 was 1.355 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.63% year-on-year, but it turned a profit with a net profit of 66 million yuan [1][2]. - The offshore wind construction is anticipated to ramp up in 2025-2026, providing strong momentum for the company's performance recovery [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.355 billion yuan, down 19.63% year-on-year, while net profit was 66 million yuan, recovering from a loss [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 436 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 251.50% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 48.63% [1]. Business Segments - The pile foundation business generated revenue of 854 million yuan in 2024, down 22.67%, with a gross margin decline of 6.03 percentage points to 4.29% [2]. - The wind tower segment saw revenue of 320 million yuan, a decrease of 18.71%, but with a gross margin increase of 4.38 percentage points to 7.90% [2]. - The jacket structure segment achieved revenue of 138 million yuan, up 6.82%, with a gross margin increase of 10.28 percentage points to 4.79% [2]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts that the company will achieve net profits of 668 million yuan, 884 million yuan, and 1.113 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.07, 4.07, and 5.12 yuan [4][5]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity and planning new export bases to enhance its market presence [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue for 2024 but achieved profitability, with expectations for improved performance in 2025 due to accelerated offshore wind construction [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.355 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.63% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 66 million yuan, a turnaround from a loss [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 436 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 251.50% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 48.63% [1]. Business Segment Analysis - The pile foundation business generated revenue of 854 million yuan in 2024, down 22.67%, with a gross margin decrease of 6.03 percentage points to 4.29% [2]. - Wind tower revenue was 320 million yuan, a decrease of 18.71%, but gross margin increased by 4.38 percentage points to 7.90% [2]. - The jacket structure segment achieved revenue of 138 million yuan, up 6.82%, with a gross margin increase of 10.28 percentage points to 4.79% [2]. Industry Outlook - Offshore wind construction is expected to accelerate in 2025, with significant development anticipated due to the resolution of previous regulatory issues [3]. - The company’s sales gross margin improved by 10.00 percentage points to 15.05% in Q1 2025, indicating a positive trend [3]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity and planning new bases to enhance its export capabilities [3]. Future Projections - The company maintains a "buy" rating, projecting net profits of 668 million yuan, 884 million yuan, and 1.113 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]. - Expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.07 yuan, 4.07 yuan, and 5.12 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 20, 15, and 12 [4].

Industry Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The offshore wind sector is expected to experience a significant performance boost in 2025, driven by both domestic and European demand [2][33] - The report highlights that the offshore wind segment is one of the few areas projected to achieve over 50% growth in the coming year, unaffected by US-China trade tensions [2] - The report emphasizes the competitive advantages of leading cable manufacturers, particularly in high-voltage direct current (HVDC) and export orders, which enhance their market position [2] Summary by Sections Domestic Offshore Wind - In 2025, a new wave of installation is anticipated, with an expected addition of 12 GW, representing a 200% year-on-year increase [2] - The report forecasts that by 2030, China's total offshore wind capacity will reach 200 GW [2] - Concerns regarding growth in 2026 are addressed, with expectations of 18 GW of new installations, a 50% increase year-on-year [2][38] Overseas Offshore Wind - Europe is identified as the largest market for offshore wind, with an expected addition of 4.5 GW in 2025 and a total of 48 GW from 2025 to 2030 [2][42] - The report notes that the European offshore wind market is set to see a significant uptick, with a projected 70%+ increase in installations in 2025 [46] Submarine Cables - The competitive edge of submarine cable manufacturers lies in their technology, performance qualifications, and port layouts [2] - The report indicates that the share of cable investment in deep-sea projects is expected to rise from 12% to 16% due to industry inflation [5][7] - The importance of submarine cables as the "blood vessels" of offshore wind energy transmission is emphasized, highlighting their critical role in ensuring safety and stability [8][12] Market Dynamics - The report outlines that the domestic offshore wind market is experiencing a surge in project approvals and construction, with significant orders expected in 2025 [38][39] - The report also discusses the increasing demand for floating wind technology, with various countries setting ambitious targets for offshore wind capacity by 2030 [51][52] Future Trends - The report identifies a trend towards higher voltage levels in submarine cables due to the increasing size of wind farms [13][21] - It also notes that flexible direct current (DC) transmission is becoming the preferred method for long-distance offshore wind energy transmission [18][22]