黄金走势分析：从上周的周评中，我已经明确了本周的做单思路，回调看涨，上方关注3400整数关口位置，在周内的分析也给出3388的现价 单看涨3400破位到3420位置，周初的涨势过猛的情况下，我又给出了3420这个趋势压制线可能压制不住，去提示大家关注3452历史次高点的 压制情况，然后也给出3440尝试布局空单的建议（虽然金价最高3438附近就走跌）。在昨日关税协议消息面前，我的思路是等待回调3418- 3412继续看涨到3438这个位置的突破情况再去布局中线空，但是美盘消息面出现，金价接连跌破3405与3377-3383的两个支撑位，截止发文金 价最低到达3351这里反弹。每每消息面刺激多头情绪的上行都会在避险消退后金价会再跌回原点，这次的走势的是对这种行情最好的诠释。 如果从3438这里走跌是对前期消息面刺激上行的修复，那么3351这里止跌反弹就是对避险情绪退潮下跌的修复，但仅仅的20个点或许不够。 现在从盘面来看，上方短期的压制可关注3383附近（上行途中回调的位置）；下方可参考的支撑位就是起涨点3351这里；后市操作思路上建 议是： 周四（7月24日）美市盘现货黄金（XAU/USD）价格震荡走低，日内 ...

| 市场 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 欧美 | 道琼斯工业平均 | 44693.91 | -316.38 | -0.70% | | | 纳斯达克 | 21057.96 | 37.95 | 0.18% | | | 标普500 | 6363.35 | 4.44 | 0.07% | | | 欧洲斯托克50 | 5355.2 | 10.95 | 0.20% | | | 英国富时100 | 9138.37 | 76.88 | 0.85% | | | 法国CAC40 | 7818.28 | -32.15 | -0.41% | | | 德国DAX | 24295.93 | 55.11 | 0.23% | | | 俄罗斯RTS | 1121.55 | -19.37 | -1.70% | | | 上证指数 | 3605.73 | 23.43 | 0.65% | | | 深证成指 | 11193.06 | 134.02 | 1.21% | | | 创业板指 | 2345,37 | da 34.7 | 1.50% | | | 恒生指数 | 256 ...

墨西哥总统辛鲍姆：对与美国达成关税协议充满信心。 ...

凯投宏观：美欧关税协定对欧元区经济影响有限，欧央行货币政策或维持不变 三井住友银行：美日关税协议达成，潜在通胀改善或促使日本9月加息 荷兰国际集团：欧洲央行担忧欧元升值可能导致欧元走弱 【机构分析】 凯投宏观经济学家指出，即使欧盟与美国达成限制关税的贸易协定，其对欧元区经济的实际影响将是有 限的。虽然该协定能够避免贸易壁垒的破坏性升级，但相比欧洲央行基准预测所依据的经济假设，实际 效果会稍微不利一些。欧洲央行行长拉加德不太可能因此改变现有的政策立场。 Trinh Nguyen指出，菲律宾和日本与美国达成的关税协议给韩国和其他国家带来了敲定类似协议的压 力。亚洲经济体将需要适应一种新常态，即10%的关税被视为"新的零关税"。印尼和菲律宾以19%的关 税水平达成协议，为泰国和马来西亚等其他国家设定了较高的门槛。 星展银行策略师表示，由于日本自民党在参议院选举中的失利，存在增加民粹主义支出的可能性，这将 推升中长期日本国债的收益率。为了应对民众对于生活成本上升的担忧，日本央行可能需要在今年年底 前考虑加息。 （文章来源：新华财经） 三井住友银行经济学家Junya Takemoto指出，美国将日本商品的全面关税税率设 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose 0.36% to $9,933.5/ton, while SHFE copper fell 0.16% to 79,680 yuan/ton. The domestic spot import is still slightly in the red. With the approaching August tariff deadline, the EU plans to impose a 30% tariff on $100 billion of US goods. Trump's claim of a US - Japan agreement has led to market optimism. The third - round China - US consultations are set to take place in Sweden next week. LME copper inventory decreased by 25 tons, Comex inventory increased by 1,567 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts dropped by 9,972 tons. Affected by the off - season, consumption is weak, but some enterprises are stocking up in advance due to concerns about price increases. The Inner Mongolia flotation incident may cause safety - related production cuts, intensifying the shortage of concentrates. With the approaching August 1st, although there are many positive factors, uncertainties also exist, so weekly market trends should be viewed with caution. The domestic anti - involution impact on the market has eased, and its impact on copper is relatively weak but still affects market sentiment [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a weak and volatile trend. Alumina's AO2509 closed at 3,366 yuan/ton, down 1.55%, with an increase in open interest. Shanghai aluminum's AL2509 closed at 20,750 yuan/ton, down 0.46%, also with an increase in open interest. The aluminum alloy's AD2511 closed at 20,140 yuan/ton, down 0.35%, with a decrease in open interest. The SMM alumina price rebounded, and the spot premium of aluminum ingots decreased. The processing fees of aluminum rods and some aluminum products changed. Due to the maintenance of some alumina plants, the commissioning of new electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the southwest, and low warehouse receipts, the supply of alumina is tight. As the amount of goods delivered to the warehouse recovers and may peak, it is difficult to short - sell under the anti - involution effect. New orders for electrolytic aluminum processing are shrinking, and inventory accumulation in the off - season has started, which forms a game with low near - month warehouse receipts. The unilateral rebound space of aluminum alloy is limited, and attention can be paid to the AL - AD spread arbitrage opportunity when the refined - scrap spread narrows [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.29% to $15,575/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.1% to 123,660 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,220 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 122 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month spread remained negative, and the import nickel spread increased by 50 yuan/ton. Weekly nickel ore prices were stable, nickel - iron prices were at a three - year low, and nickel salt prices declined slightly. For stainless steel, cost support is weakening, weekly inventory has decreased, and supply in July has decreased slightly month - on - month, indicating that the supply - demand pattern may be gradually improving. The domestic weekly inventory of primary nickel has increased, and market pressure is emerging. In the short term, prices will still fluctuate, with market sentiment, overseas policies, and fundamentals in a game [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased by 45 yuan/ton, and its premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong remained unchanged, and the refined - scrap spread increased by 120 yuan/ton. The prices of downstream products such as oxygen - free and low - oxygen copper rods remained unchanged. The weekly TC for copper smelting remained unchanged. LME copper inventory decreased by 25 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 9,972 tons, and the total SHFE inventory increased by 3,094 tons. The social inventory (including bonded areas) decreased by 0.4 million tons. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.3 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss decreased by 160 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 40 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 lead ingots in East China increased by 5 yuan/ton. The prices of lead concentrates and processing fees remained unchanged. LME lead inventory increased by 650 tons, SHFE lead warehouse receipts increased by 200 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 7,186 tons. The 3 - cash spread was - 7.2 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss decreased by 10 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai decreased, and the Nanhai - Wuxi price difference increased by 20 yuan/ton. The spot premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The prices of low - and high - grade bauxite in Shanxi remained unchanged, and the price of Shandong alumina increased by 10 yuan/ton. The processing fees of some aluminum products increased. LME aluminum inventory increased by 6,350 tons, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 3,161 tons, and the total SHFE inventory increased by 5,625 tons. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged, and the alumina inventory decreased by 1.5 million tons. The 3 - cash spread was - 49.65 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss increased by 15 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 500 yuan/ton, and the spreads of Jinchuan nickel and imported nickel to Wuxi decreased. The prices of nickel ore, nickel - iron, and some stainless steel products remained unchanged, while the prices of some new - energy nickel products decreased. LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,220 tons, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 122 tons, and the weekly SHFE nickel inventory increased by 230 tons. The stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons, and the social nickel inventory increased by 1,165 tons. The 3 - cash spread was - 228 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss decreased by 210 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算价 increased by 0.2%, and the LmeS3 price and the Shanghai - London ratio remained unchanged. The near - far month spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton. The prices of SMM 0 and 1 zinc increased by 40 yuan/ton, and the domestic and imported zinc spot premiums decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 1.75 dollars/ton. The prices of zinc alloys and zinc oxide increased. The weekly TC for zinc remained unchanged. SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,275 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.13 million tons. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The active contract import loss was 0 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: The主力结算价 increased by 0.5%, and the LmeS3 price decreased by 2.1%. The near - far month spread decreased by 130 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price increased by 2,600 yuan/ton, and the prices of tin concentrates increased by 1,700 yuan/ton. The domestic spot premium remained unchanged, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 32 dollars/ton. SHFE tin inventory increased by 51 tons, LME tin inventory decreased by 25 tons. The registered warehouse receipts of SHFE tin increased by 16 tons, and those of LME tin decreased by 225 tons. The active contract import loss was 0 yuan/ton, and the tariff was 3% [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides charts of the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [6][7][9]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts of the near - far month spreads (such as copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin) from 2020 - 2025 are presented [15][18][20]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts of the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are provided [22][24][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts of the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are shown [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts of the social inventories of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 are presented [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts of the copper concentrate index, copper scrap processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and 304 stainless steel smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 are provided [42][44][46]. 3.3 Non - Technical Content - **Team Introduction**: The report introduces the non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research, a senior precious metals researcher, and has rich experience. Wang Heng focuses on the research of aluminum and silicon, and Zhu Xi focuses on the research of lithium and nickel. They have all achieved good results in research and service [49][50]

Market Overview - The market sentiment has improved due to recent trade negotiations, leading to a rise in US stock indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 507.85 points, or 1.14%, closing at 45,010.29 points, just 4 points shy of its historical high. The S&P 500 rose by 0.78% to 6,358.91 points, marking its 12th record close of the year, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.61%, closing above 21,000 points for the first time [1][2]. Trade Agreements - The US aims to finalize more trade agreements before the August 1 tariff deadline. Recently, the White House announced a framework agreement with Indonesia, following previous agreements with countries including China and the UK. President Trump mentioned a "significant agreement" with Japan, which includes a 15% reciprocal tariff on Japanese exports to the US. This is part of a broader strategy to expedite negotiations with major trading partners before the critical tariff deadline [3][9]. Earnings Reports - The focus is shifting towards the earnings season, particularly the performance of tech giants. Alphabet reported strong Q2 earnings, with revenue of $96.43 billion, exceeding market expectations of $94 billion, and earnings per share of $2.31, above the anticipated $2.18. The company plans to increase its capital expenditure for 2025 from $75 billion to $85 billion to meet growing demand in cloud computing and AI [5][6]. - Tesla's Q2 earnings showed a 16% year-over-year decline in automotive revenue, marking the second consecutive quarter of sales decline. Total revenue was $22.5 billion, slightly below the expected $22.74 billion. The automotive business revenue fell to $16.7 billion from $19.9 billion year-over-year, and revenue from regulatory credits dropped significantly [6][7]. Economic Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts that the US's basic "reciprocal" tariff rate will increase from 10% to 15%, with tariffs on copper and key minerals reaching 50%. This could exacerbate inflationary pressures and suppress economic growth. The firm has adjusted its inflation and GDP growth forecasts accordingly, projecting a 1% reduction in GDP growth for 2025 [12]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in July, with market participants anticipating a potential rate cut in September. Economists predict that the Fed will have to tolerate higher inflation levels while considering the impact of new tariff policies on the economy [14][15].

Group 1 - The euro experienced a short-term rise of approximately 20 points, approaching 1.1750, with overall narrow fluctuations and remaining roughly flat during the day [1] - The Eurozone STOXX 50 index futures increased by 2.4%, while European bond prices declined [1] - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.57%, the Dow Jones increased by 375 points or 0.84%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.39%, whereas the semiconductor index fell by 0.21% [1] Group 2 - Reports indicate that the US and EU are close to reaching an agreement regarding the 15% tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on the EU [1] - The US and EU will eliminate tariffs on aircraft, spirits, and medical devices [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the US and Europe are nearing an agreement on a 15% tariff deal, which could significantly impact trade relations between the two regions [1] Group 2 - The potential agreement is expected to address various sectors, including technology and agriculture, which have been contentious points in US-EU trade discussions [1] - The 15% tariff rate is seen as a compromise that could facilitate smoother trade and reduce tensions between the US and Europe [1]

Group 1 - The announcement of a trade agreement between the US and Japan has led to a significant rise in the Japanese stock market, with the Nikkei 225 index increasing nearly 4% [1][5] - The agreement includes a 15% tariff on Japanese imports, which is lower than the previously feared 25%, positively impacting automotive stocks such as Mazda and Toyota [1][5] - The market's optimistic response is also influenced by rumors of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's resignation, which investors believe could lead to a more favorable fiscal policy direction [3][6] Group 2 - The yield on Japanese government bonds has risen sharply, with the 10-year bond yield reaching its highest level since October 2008 at 1.6%, reflecting increased expectations for interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [3][9] - The trade agreement is expected to facilitate easier interest rate increases for the Bank of Japan, as indicated by analysts [8][9] - Concerns about government spending growth have led to weaker demand for 40-year government bonds, highlighting investor worries about Japan's fiscal outlook [9]

德国政府发言人：（关于日美关税协议）这与欧美情况不可相提并论。 ...