智通财经APP获悉，美联储理事丽莎·库克表示，美联储必须在近期将通胀率拉回目标水平，这对于维 护其信誉至关重要。 "除非我看到更强劲的证据表明通胀正持续回落至目标水平，否则这将继续是我的关注焦点——当然， 前提是劳动力市场未出现意外变化。"库克在为周三迈阿密一场活动准备的讲稿中如此表示。 美联储决策层上周将基准利率维持在3.5%至3.75%区间不变，此前在2025年底已连续三次降息。按兵不 动的同时，官员们上调了对经济和劳动力市场的评估，并释放出暂无进一步降息紧迫性的信号。 沃什此前曾表示美联储有降息空间，理由是他相信生产率提升能在不推高通胀的情况下促进经济增长。 库克称她支持上周维持利率不变的决定，因她目前认为"风险偏向于通胀上行"。她与近期多位发表谨慎 言论的决策者立场一致——通胀率已连续数年高于美联储2%的目标。 "在经历近五年高于目标的通胀后，我们亟需通过重返通胀放缓轨道、并在相对较近的未来达成目标， 以捍卫我们的公信力。"库克强调。 她指出劳动力市场活力不足"可能使其易受下行冲击"，但仍形容市场"大致处于平衡状态"，并表示12月 微降的失业率已显现企稳迹象。 "总体来看，经济前景不确定性仍处高位，但 ...

这位里士满联邦储备银行行长重申，承受压力的消费者正在抵制企业试图通过涨价把关税成本转嫁出去 的努力，而这有助于抑制通胀。 他还警告称，尽管美国经济的总体需求已被证明具有韧性，但这在很大程度上是由于人工智能基础设施 的建设以及富裕消费者的支出，而他认为这两者彼此关联。 "这两个部分是相互关联的，" 他说，"人工智能领域一旦降温，可能会冲击企业投资和股票市场，进而 在富裕人群净资产下降时，打击他们的消费。" 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：王许宁 里士满联邦储备银行行长Tom Barkin表示，去年的降息帮助提振了劳动力市场，官员们如今正着眼于把 通胀重新拉回到央行的目标水平。 "我认为，在我们努力完成实现通胀目标的最后一英里时，这些降息相当于购买了一些保险来支持劳动 力市场，"Barkin周二为在南卡罗来纳州哥伦比亚一场活动准备的讲稿中说。 Barkin表示，随着不确定性消退，经济前景正在改善，但风险仍然存在，因为招聘主要集中在少数几个 行业，而且通胀仍高于美联储2%的目标。 美联储官员上周将基准利率维持在3.5%至3.75%的目标区间不变。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，在去 年连续三次降息之 ...

来源：金融界AI电报 美联储博斯蒂克：劳动力市场似乎已经趋于稳定。 ...

来源：滚动播报 美联储博斯蒂克：劳动力市场似乎已经稳定下来。 ...

"在排除一次性关税影响后，尽管失业率接近自然率估值但仍存在恶化风险，我继续认为政策具有适度 限制性，"她表示。尽管美联储正平衡劳动力市场降温与通胀高于目标的异常局面，鲍曼称她仍观察到 多项迹象表明劳动力市场依然脆弱。 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三曾表示劳动力市场已显现某些企稳信号。为应对疲软的劳动力市场，美 联储去年12月前共进行三次降息。展望今年剩余时间，鲍曼称其经济预测摘要中包含三次降息。 虽然通胀尚未回落至美联储2%的目标，但鲍曼指出，若劳动力市场未见改善，"我们应做好准备调整政 策，使其更接近中性水平。" 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 美联储理事米歇尔·鲍曼表示，她仍认为货币政策处于适度限制性状态，劳动力市场的下行风险亦未改 变。在美联储周三决定维持利率不变后，鲍曼于夏威夷欧胡岛发表讲话称，她支持按兵不动的决定，但 本亦可支持继续放松政策限制，以更好对冲劳动力市场进一步恶化的风险。 "在排除一次性关税影响后，尽管失业率接近自然率估值但仍存在恶化风险，我继续认为政策具有适度 限制性，"她表示。尽管美联储正平衡劳动力市场降温与通胀高于目标的异常局面，鲍曼称她仍观察到 多项迹象表明劳动力市场依然脆 ...

"在去年下半年累计降息75个基点之后，在我看来，我们有条件从容应对，暂时'保留政策弹药'，以便 仔细评估政策约束力度的减弱如何传导至更广泛的金融环境并强化劳动力市场，"鲍曼周五在为夏威夷 瓦胡岛一场活动准备的讲稿中表示。 鲍曼表示，劳动力市场面临的下行风险并未消退，但她倾向于在今年以更为"审慎的步伐"将货币政策向 中性水平推进。 在去年下半年连续三次降息后，鲍曼在本周的会议上投票支持维持利率不变。政策制定者以10比2的投 票结果决定将基准利率维持在3.5%至3.75%的目标区间，美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰和克里斯托弗·沃勒持 异议，主张降息25个基点。 鲍曼周五表示，她在去年12月提交经济预测时，预计今年降息三次。 她说："在我看来，这次会议的关键在于实施这些降息的时间安排，本质上是在继续解除政策约束并在4 月会议前达到我估计的中性水平，还是在今年全年以更为审慎的步伐将政策推向中性之间做出选择。" 美联储负责监管的副主席米歇尔·鲍曼表示，鉴于通胀高企以及去年创纪录时长的政府停摆可能导致经 济数据扭曲，在进一步降息的问题上有理由等待。 鲍曼表示，她有信心随着关税影响的消退，通胀将回到美联储2%的目标水平。她称，有证 ...

美联储理事鲍曼：劳动力市场下行风险并未减弱。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations, while indicating robust economic expansion but high uncertainty in the economic outlook [1] Economic Outlook - The labor market will be the primary driver of the Federal Reserve's policy decisions this year, with expectations of two rate cuts in the second half of the year, each by 25 basis points, due to a slightly elevated unemployment rate projected to be around 4.5% by year-end [1][2] - Inflation is expected to remain sticky, with a current rate around 3%, but could potentially drop to near 2% by the end of the year without tariff impacts [3][4] Labor Market Insights - The unemployment rate is anticipated to rise slightly in the first quarter, reaching a peak around mid-year before showing signs of improvement, with the labor market remaining somewhat weak but stable enough to support rate cuts [3][2] Inflation Dynamics - Tariff effects are delaying the overall decline in inflation, which is expected to stay high in the first half of the year, with a potential return to lower levels by 2027 [4][3] Federal Reserve Leadership Uncertainty - The upcoming change in Federal Reserve leadership introduces significant uncertainty, as different candidates may adopt varying policy approaches and communication styles, impacting market expectations [5] GDP Growth Projections - The consensus for U.S. GDP growth is around 2% for the year, with attention on the impacts of the "Big and Beautiful" tax plan, which could influence economic forecasts as more data becomes available in the coming months [6][10] Stock Market Outlook - The stock market is expected to perform well this year, driven by a more robust overall economy and improved performance across various sectors, although there are concerns about over-reliance on AI-related investments [7][8] - The S&P 500 index is projected to reach a target of 7500 points by year-end, reflecting optimism despite potential risks associated with AI stock performance [9] Sector Opportunities - The consumer discretionary sector is anticipated to regain market attention, alongside a recovery in the housing market and increased consumer spending from middle-income groups [10] Currency Trends - The dollar may continue to show weakness in the short term, but there is potential for a long-term strengthening if the stock market performs well and productivity gains from AI investments materialize [11] Investment Risks and Opportunities - Investors should closely monitor the effects of tax refund seasons and tax measures on household balance sheets, as these will significantly influence economic performance in the near term [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% during the meeting on January 28, 2026, signaling a cautious approach amid stabilizing inflation and labor market conditions [1][3]. Economic: Dual Risk Improvement - The U.S. economy showed strong performance in Q4 2025, supported by resilient consumer spending. Indicators such as the unemployment rate and initial jobless claims suggest stabilization in the labor market [3]. - The Federal Reserve has cut rates by a total of 75 basis points since September 2025, leading to a peak in the unemployment rate, reducing the necessity for further rate cuts [3]. - Despite improvements, risks of "no job expansion" remain due to past over-hiring, slowed net immigration, and general economic uncertainty, although productivity gains support economic stability [3]. Policy: Data Dependency, Holding Steady - The decision to pause rate cuts received broad support, with only two dissenting votes from the minority faction. The current rate is viewed as at the upper end of the neutral range, indicating low necessity for further cuts [5]. - Powell avoided discussing political pressures during the press conference and emphasized the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence [5]. Outlook: Caution on Rate Cut Expectations - The Trump administration's push for monetary easing could reignite rate cut expectations, with a significant chance of the policy rate falling below 3% within the year [6]. - The administration is also advocating for lower credit card rates and increased purchases of mortgage-backed securities to reduce mortgage rates, potentially applying more pressure on the Federal Reserve [6]. Strategy: Market Expectations Slightly Dovish - The market reacted mildly to the Fed's decision to maintain rates, initially responding to a hawkish statement but later balancing out due to Powell's more neutral tone [7]. - The U.S. Treasury yields flattened, with the 2-year at 3.57%, 5-year at 3.83%, 10-year at 4.24%, and 30-year at 4.86%. The dollar index rose slightly by 0.13% to 96.344 [7]. - The market sentiment remains stable and cautious, with expectations for short-term Treasury GC repos to maintain a range-bound oscillation [7].

中银国际固定收益研究 Fixed Income Research 中银国际固定收益研究 BOCI Fixed Income Research 2026. 01. 29 Wiley Huang (黄为一), CFA (852) 3988 6324 wileywy.huang@bocigroup.com Wu Qiong (吴琼), CFA (852) 3988 6926 qiong.wu@bocigroup.com Rates, Currencies & Credits China Fixed Income Research 利率、汇率、信用 中国固定收益研究 1 月 FOMC：按兵不动、模糊指引 本次会议波澜不惊。鉴于 12 月美联储已暗示将放缓降息步伐，加之 近期失业率回落、通胀依然高企，一系列数据进一步强化了"按兵不动" 的基调。因此，1 月 FOMC 维持利率不变符合市场一致预期。 会议声明措辞略显鹰派，主要反映近期经济的进展。 新闻发布会 Powell 基调中性偏鸽，对冲鹰派声明。 重要的披露和认证位于此报告的背面。 Important disclosures and certifications a ...