Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious approach towards interest rate adjustments, suggesting a potential for rate cuts in the near future, with a target rate of 3.5% by Q3 2026 [1][9]. Core Insights - Economic growth is slowing due to reduced immigration, declining government spending, and stagnation in healthcare employment, but inflation is not a primary concern [1][3]. - Emerging technologies are driving capital investment, leading to economic growth, although companies prioritize profit margins over labor input, resulting in stagnant wage growth and hiring [1][4]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a cautious rate-cutting cycle, with inflation not anticipated to be a significant issue in the next 6-9 months [8]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth and Labor Market - Current economic conditions show a bifurcated landscape, with emerging technologies contributing to capital investment while companies focus on profit margins, leading to stagnant wage growth and hiring [4][11]. - Existing labor income is growing at an annual rate of 3.7%, but new job creation is stagnant [4]. Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - There is internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions, with some members advocating for rate hikes while the majority favors further cuts [5][6]. - The probability of a 50 basis point rate hike in October and December is higher than a pause, influenced by upcoming employment data [6]. Inflation and Future Projections - Inflation is not expected to be a major issue in the near term, allowing the Federal Reserve to approach a cautious rate-cutting cycle [8]. - By the end of 2026, the Federal Reserve may need to consider inflation concerns as credit expansion and emerging technologies impact the labor market [9]. Market Expectations - Market expectations for interest rates are around 3%, with a potential low of 2.85%, indicating uncertainty in the market [10]. - Emerging markets, such as Brazil and South Korea, are highlighted as areas of interest due to potential structural reforms and asymmetric opportunities [14].

重磅数据或将扰动美联储降息前景。 在美联储重启降息后，美股三大指数本周集体创出历史新高。根据日程安排，美联储最青睐的通胀指标——美国8月核心PCE物价指数将于9月26日发布。另外，美 联储官员们也将于下周密集发声，或将释放后续货币政策走向的信号。 站在当前时点，华尔街正押注美联储未来将更快、更大幅度地降息。据LSEG数据，期货市场押注美联储基准短期利率将在明年年底降至3%以下，远低于当前略高 于4%的水平，也低于美联储官员们预测的3.4%。 重磅数据来袭 受美联储降息提振，美股本周持续走强，三大指数均创出历史新高，纳指、标普500指数年内累计涨幅分别超17%、13%。 目前华尔街一致预期，美联储将在10月、12月继续降息。美联储也暗示未来将进一步下调利率，以支撑疲弱的劳动力市场。 高盛集团对冲基金业务主管Tony Pasquariello在最新发布的报告中指出，美联储已明确表示，后续还计划进行一系列降息，股票市场显然已经嗅到了这一积极信号。 看涨叙事并未因上周的美联储会议而动摇，反而推动周期股相对防御股的走势再创新高。 展望下周，美联储最青睐的通胀指标——美国8月核心PCE物价指数即将出炉。 市场将借此评估关 ...

来源：滚动播报 美联储卡什卡利：劳动力市场并不糟糕，但值得密切关注。 ...

Group 1 - Silver T+D trading is currently above 9901, with an opening at 9853 and a current price of 9934, reflecting a 1.06% increase [1] - The highest price reached was 9944, while the lowest was 9805, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in the silver market [1] - The daily chart shows continued upward oscillation in silver T+D prices, with significant resistance levels at 9976-10000 and support levels at 9700-9805 [4] Group 2 - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 13 were recorded at 231,000, lower than the market expectation of 240,000 and down from the previous week's 263,000 [3] - This marks the largest decline in initial jobless claims in nearly four years, suggesting that companies are inclined to retain existing employees despite economic uncertainties [3] - However, signs of labor market weakness are emerging, with a significant slowdown in job growth and a cooling in both supply and demand for labor [3] Group 3 - A technical error led to a significant underestimation of jobless claims in North Carolina by over 19,000, with the correct figure expected to be around 19,355 instead of the reported 205 [4] - Following the correction, it is anticipated that the national continuing jobless claims will increase by approximately 20,000, maintaining levels consistent with previous weeks [4]

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and closed lower on September 18, with an opening price of $3684.11 per ounce, a high of $3704.51, a low of $3627.92, and a closing price of $3641.27 [1] Economic Data - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 13 was reported at 231,000, lower than the market expectation of 240,000 and down from the previous week's 263,000 [2] - This marks the largest decline in initial claims in nearly four years, indicating that companies are still inclined to retain employees despite economic uncertainties [2] - However, signs of labor market weakness are emerging, with a significant slowdown in job growth and a cooling in both labor supply and demand [2] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed a downward trend, with the lowest point reaching $3627 during the trading session, followed by a slight recovery to close at $3643 [8] - The daily chart indicates a small bearish candle, suggesting a potential top formation, while the short-term indicators are showing a downward trend [8] - The hourly chart reflects a bearish sentiment, with prices stabilizing below key moving averages, indicating a cautious trading approach [8] Trading Strategy - For aggressive traders, a buy position can be initiated at $2627 with a stop loss of 3-5 points and a profit target above $3640 [9] - For conservative traders, a buy position can be initiated at $3612 with similar stop loss and profit target parameters [10] - For short positions, aggressive entry can be at $3658 with a stop loss of 3-5 points and a target below $3647, while a more conservative entry can be at $3668 with a target below $3655 [10]

Market Overview - The bond market has experienced significant fluctuations, particularly in the 10-year yield, following recent Federal Reserve announcements and press conferences [1][3] - Recent data has shown a decline in short-term yields, influenced by the Fed's updated projections indicating potential rate cuts [3][4] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve has cut rates and projected two additional cuts for the year, reflecting a somewhat dovish stance [4] - Economic projections from the Fed indicate stronger growth and a lower unemployment rate compared to previous forecasts [4] Inflation and Labor Market - Inflation remains high but is not accelerating, while there are concerns about a potential slowdown in the labor market [5][10] - The Fed's approach appears to be more about risk management rather than initiating a consistent rate-cutting cycle [5][11] Long-term Yield Outlook - There are mixed expectations regarding long-term yields, with some analysts predicting they may not decrease in tandem with short-term rates [8][9] - Concerns about budget issues and elevated inflation may lead to demands for higher yields from investors [9][10] Conclusion - The Fed's current strategy may support stable long-term yields, suggesting a more cautious approach to monetary policy moving forward [11]

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell last week, but signs of a weaker labour market continue to emerge as both hiring and worker supply ease. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped by 33,000 to a seasonally adjusted 231,000 for the week ending September 13, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. ...

最新点阵图显示年底前将再降息50个基点，但鲍威尔对降息节奏保持审慎态度。FOMC投票结果显示，除斯蒂芬·米兰主张降息50个基点外，多数委员支持 25基点降息。美联储声明指出，近期通胀数据虽有所上升但仍处于"较高水平"，同时承认2025年上半年经济增长已显现放缓迹象。经济预测摘要（SEP）显 示，联邦基金利率中值预计年底达3.60%，暗示年内仍有50基点降息空间。 劳动力市场与通胀动态 美联储周三降息25个基点并释放2025年继续宽松信号，但鲍威尔鸽派程度不及预期致金价暴跌近1%。周四亚市早盘，现货黄金围绕3660美元震荡，接近前 日收盘价3659.79美元。美元指数（DXY）在降息后反弹约0.50%至96.93，10年期美债收益率攀升4.5基点至4.079%，实际收益率飙升至1.70%，形成对贵金 属的短期压制。 金价周三创3707.35美元历史新高后快速回落，周四在3660美元附近整固。14日RSI持续发出超买信号，预示短期上行空间受限但整体趋势仍偏多头。上行目 标看向3750及3800美元，首要支撑位在3650美元，跌破后将考验9月11日低点3613美元（略高于3600心理关口）。 经济数据与政策预期 鲍 ...

黄金昨天调整后，多头再起，涨破3700刷新历史新高后，再次上演高台跳水，一度大跌60美金，上蹿下 跳，高位洗盘，多空博弈。 下方再探3626的位置，看反弹的机会。 上方反弹，先看到3651的阻力承压。 再次突破，持续看到3674的阻力承压。 今天的走势 昨天黄金快涨快跌，再刷历史新高。 刚破3700，就迎来跳水。 一度跌至3645的位置，到今天止跌调整。 下方再次回调，看调整力度。 一方面，美联储靴子落地，最终预期25基点降息，毫无悬念。基于劳动力市场的疲软，以及金融风险的 压力，美联储不得不开启降息的大门，美元快速走低，黄金一度反超新高。 同时，处在3651下方，再次回调。 跌破了3626的位置，下方看到3600的位置，关注支撑反弹的机会。 黄金单边上涨4个月后，到8月持续了4个月横盘，到本月终于打破震荡格局，再刷历史新高，又迎来再 次单边涨势。到本周高位洗盘调整，多空难辨，再上破新高不猜顶。同时，下方再次大幅回调，看向 3600的关口。 另外一方面，美联储鲍威尔讲话，此次降息降的不怎么情愿，反而是被逼无奈的选择。强调只是风险预 期管理式的降息，并没有对下一步降息预期表态，整体谨慎态度明显，黄金快速降温。 ...

鲍威尔新闻发布会的要点 汇通财经APP讯——美联储在9月16-17日会议上将联邦基金利率目标区间（FFTR）下调25个基点至 4.00%-4.25%，这一举措完全符合市场预期。美联储主席鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上，解释了9月会议后 决定将利率目标区间下调至4.00%-4.25%的原因。 美联储最新利率决议和经济预测 美联储在北京时间9月18日凌晨2:00公布了最新的利率决策和经济预测。随后，美联储主席鲍威尔在北 京时间2:30举行了新闻发布会。 美联储的经济预测 根据美联储的预测，预计今年年底前还将继续降息50个基点（0.5%），之后两年每年会降息25个基 点。失业率小幅上升，但仍处于低位。整体通胀有所上升，仍然处于"略高"的水平。 1. 通胀和经济增长：最近，通胀有所回升，但仍保持在较高水平。美国的经济增长放缓，主要原因 是消费者支出的减少。就业和工资增长显著放缓，这与移民减少和劳动参与率下降有关。总的来 说，劳动力市场的需求减少，意味着就业增长没有达到理想水平。 2. 通胀情况：虽然通胀已经从2022年高峰回落，但依然很高。8月的PCE价格指数可能上涨2.7%，而 核心PCE（剔除食品和能源价格）上涨了2. ...