1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report focuses on the characteristics of local government bonds in the first half of 2025, including primary issuance, secondary trading, and institutional behavior, aiming to provide a comprehensive review of the local government bond market in this period [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 1.1. Local Government Bond Primary Issuance Characteristics - **Feature 1: Record - high issuance and net financing scale in the same period** - In H1 2025, the local government bond issuance scale reached 5490.2 billion yuan, the highest in the same period in the past decade. The net financing scale was 4413.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2540.8 billion yuan. The issuance of 2 trillion yuan of special bonds for replacing hidden debts was front - loaded, mainly concentrated in January - April, with the overall issuance progress close to 90% [10][13][15]. - **Feature 2: Issuance structure: New special bonds have the highest proportion, but the proportion is declining** - In H1 2025, new special bonds and refinancing special bonds accounted for 40% and 39% respectively, with issuance scales of 2160.7 billion yuan and 2150.2 billion yuan. The proportion of new special bonds slightly decreased, while that of refinancing special bonds increased. New general bonds accounted for the lowest at 8%, with an issuance scale of 452 billion yuan [19]. - **Feature 3: Special bond issuance rhythm: Overall progress is relatively stable** - In H1 2025, the issuance progress of new special bonds was relatively stable, with a relatively balanced monthly issuance scale compared to 2024. As of June 2025, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds was 21606.53 billion yuan, compared with 23008.50 billion yuan and 14934.68 billion yuan in the same period of 2023 and 2024 respectively [21]. - **Feature 4: The underlying logic of debt - resolution quota allocation is still the resolution of hidden debts** - Debt resolution remained the top priority in H1 2025. The issuance scale of local government bonds for debt resolution remained large, including 464.8 billion yuan of special new special bonds for debt resolution and 1794.4 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts. The proportion of key areas in local government bonds for debt resolution in H1 2025 was 31%, the same as in 2024 but significantly lower than the 66% in 2023 [22][27]. - **Feature 5: Land reserve special bonds restarted, but there is a gap between actual issuance and announced scale** - In H1 2025, 9 provinces (including municipalities directly under the Central Government) issued land reserve special bonds, with a total scale of 192.5 billion yuan. As of mid - July 2025, the announced land acquisition scale was 426.2 billion yuan [30]. - **Feature 6: The proportion of special bond issuance scale in "self - review and self - issuance" provinces has increased** - The proportion of new special bond issuance scale in "self - review and self - issuance" provinces increased significantly. From 2020 - 2023, the proportion of special bond issuance scale in the pilot areas was about 53%, and in H1 2025, it rose to 69%, possibly related to the faster approval of special bonds in these provinces [34]. - **Feature 7: Issuance term has been extended** - In H1 2025, the average issuance term of local government bonds was 14.69 years, an extension of 1.46 years compared to 2024. The proportion of local government bonds with a term of over 15 years in terms of both scale and quantity increased [38][43]. - **Feature 8: Issuance cost has decreased, while issuance spread has widened** - In H1 2025, the issuance spread of local government bonds rebounded to 12.22BP, an increase of 3.73BP compared to 2024, and the average issuance interest rate decreased to 1.89%, a decrease of 0.39pct compared to 2024. The "flying" phenomenon of local government bonds was significant in the first half of the year, mainly in 30 - year bonds [46][48]. - **Feature 9: Regional issuance spreads continue to diverge in a low - interest - rate environment** - In H1 2025, regional issuance spreads continued to diverge significantly, following the rule that "the stronger the fiscal strength, the lower the spread". Economically strong regions maintained low spreads, while some less - developed regions had high spreads [50]. - **Feature 10: The spread of special refinancing bonds is higher than that of ordinary refinancing bonds** - The spread of special refinancing bonds is higher than that of ordinary refinancing bonds, mainly because the issuance term of special refinancing bonds is generally longer. Nationally, the spreads of special refinancing bonds and special new special bonds are 16.53BP and 13.96BP respectively, higher than those of ordinary refinancing bonds (9.56BP) and ordinary new special bonds (12.55BP) [52]. 1.2. Local Government Bond Secondary Trading Characteristics - **Feature 11: Trading volume has increased, trading price has risen, and turnover rate has decreased** - In H1 2025, the trading volume of local government bonds was 10.87 trillion yuan, an increase of 1690.3 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2024. The turnover rate was 3.65%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.04 percentage points, mainly due to the significant decline in the turnover rate of general bonds. The trading volume and turnover rate of special bonds are higher than those of general bonds. Regionally, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong have higher turnover rates [55][61]. 1.3. Local Government Bond Institutional Behavior Characteristics - **Feature 13: There are differences in institutional buying and selling behaviors and term preferences** - From the buying side, insurance, funds, and wealth management prefer to sell short - term bonds and buy long - term bonds, while rural commercial banks prefer to buy bonds with a term of 7 - 20 years. From the selling side, large - scale banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and securities firms were net sellers in H1 2025. Large - scale banks, joint - stock banks, and city commercial banks prefer to buy short - term and sell long - term bonds, while securities firms reduced their holdings across all terms [3].

Core Insights - Dalian issued 10-year general local bonds with a scale of 5.91405 billion, an issuance rate of 1.7100%, and a marginal multiple of 1.16 times, with an expected multiple of 1.75 [1] - Dalian also issued 20-year ordinary special local bonds with a scale of 723 million, an issuance rate of 2.0400%, and a marginal multiple of 3.53 times, with an expected multiple of 2.02 [1] Summary by Category - **Bond Issuance** - Dalian's 10-year general local bonds totaled 5.91405 billion with a rate of 1.7100% and a marginal multiple of 1.16 times [1] - The expected multiple for the 10-year bonds was 1.75 [1] - **Special Bonds** - The 20-year ordinary special local bonds issued by Dalian amounted to 723 million with a rate of 2.0400% and a marginal multiple of 3.53 times [1] - The expected multiple for the 20-year bonds was 2.02 [1]

Group 1 - Xinjiang issued 10-year general local bonds with a scale of 12.214 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 1.7400%, with a marginal multiple of 1.46 times, slightly below the expected multiple of 1.75 [1] - Xinjiang issued 10-year other special local bonds with a scale of 2.493 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 1.7800%, achieving a marginal multiple of 1.67 times, also below the expected multiple of 1.75 [1] - Xinjiang issued 15-year other special local bonds with a scale of 3.340 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 1.9500%, with a marginal multiple of 1.81 times, slightly below the expected multiple of 1.94 [1] Group 2 - Xinjiang issued 20-year other special local bonds with a scale of 1.686 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 2.0500%, achieving a significantly high marginal multiple of 6.96 times, exceeding the expected multiple of 2.03 [1] - Xinjiang issued 30-year other special local bonds with a scale of 8.600 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 2.0500%, with a marginal multiple of 6.03 times, also exceeding the expected multiple of 2.04 [1]

云南发行7年期其他专项地方债，规模44.1543亿元，发行利率1.6600%，边际倍数1.26倍，倍数预期 1.68； 云南发行10年期其他专项地方债，规模4.9740亿元，发行利率1.7700%，边际倍数1.39倍，倍数预期 1.75。 云南发行30年期其他专项地方债，规模69.2685亿元，发行利率2.0500%，边际倍数1.04倍，倍数预期 2.03； 云南发行7年期其他专项地方债，规模89.8772亿元，发行利率1.6600%，边际倍数1.24倍，倍数预期 1.68； 云南发行10年期其他专项地方债，规模100.0000亿元，发行利率1.7500%，边际倍数1.81倍，倍数预期 1.77； ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the net financing of local bonds increased, with long - term issuance accounting for a higher proportion, and the weighted average issuance spread widened. Also, the secondary spread of medium - and long - term local bonds narrowed, and the trading volume and turnover rate declined [1][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, the issuance of local bonds was 231.8 billion yuan, the repayment was 121.6 billion yuan, and the net financing was 110.2 billion yuan. The issuance included 14.5 billion yuan of new general bonds, 64 billion yuan of new special bonds, 82.9 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds, and 70.4 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds [1][9]. - **Issuance Term**: The issuance of 10 - year local bonds accounted for the highest proportion (41%), and the issuance of 10 - year and above accounted for 75%, an increase compared to last week. The issuance proportions of 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year local bonds were 15%, 41%, 7%, 7%, and 20% respectively, with the 15 - year issuance proportion decreasing by about 12 percentage points [1][11]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Bonds**: This week, 28.6 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds were issued. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds for replacing hidden debts, totaling 1.8246 trillion yuan. Among them, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Shandong, and Guizhou plan to issue 251.1 billion yuan, 114.8 billion yuan, 111.3 billion yuan, and 105.9 billion yuan respectively [2][14]. - **Issuance Spread**: The weighted average issuance spread of local bonds this week was 10.9bp, wider than last week. The 30 - year local bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread at 18.3bp. Except for the 5 - year local bonds, whose weighted average issuance spread narrowed, the spreads of other terms widened. Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Gansu, and Guangdong had relatively high weighted average issuance spreads, exceeding 12bp, while Jilin had a relatively low spread [1][23]. - **Raised Funds Allocation**: As of the end of this week, the main allocation directions of new special bond funds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (30%), transportation infrastructure (20%), affordable housing projects (13%), and social undertakings (12%). The proportion of land reserve allocation increased by 11.3% compared to 2024, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 7.3% [2][26]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, 30 regions have disclosed their local bond issuance plans for the third quarter of 2025, totaling 2.6041 trillion yuan. Among them, the planned issuance in July is 126.28 billion yuan. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the third quarter is 164.66 billion yuan and 95.75 billion yuan respectively. Next week, the planned issuance of local bonds is 251.2 billion yuan, the repayment is 100.7 billion yuan, and the net financing is 150.5 billion yuan, a 40.3 - billion - yuan increase from this week [3][28]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spread**: This week, the secondary spreads of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 15 - year local bonds were advantageous, while those of 5 - year, 7 - year, and 3 - year local bonds narrowed significantly. The secondary spreads of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 15 - year local bonds were 16.5bp, 15.6bp, and 15.4bp respectively. In terms of regions, the secondary spreads of local bonds over 20 - year and 15 - 20 - year in all types of regions were relatively high, and the 10 - 15 - year local bonds in medium - level regions also had relatively high spreads [5][32]. - **Trading Volume**: This week, the trading volume and turnover rate of local bonds decreased compared to last week. The local bonds of Fujian, Hunan, and Tianjin had relatively high turnover rates. The trading volume of local bonds this week reached 377.8 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.73%. Hunan, Guangdong, and Shandong had large trading volumes, reaching 33.5 billion yuan, 30.5 billion yuan, and 28.4 billion yuan respectively. The turnover rates of Fujian, Hunan, and Tianjin were all above 1.3% [5][37].

Core Viewpoint - Jilin Province issued a 7-year general local government bond with a scale of 3.7083 billion yuan and an issuance interest rate of 1.6500% [1] Group 1 - The bond issuance had a marginal multiple of 1.94 times, exceeding the expected multiple of 1.68 [1]

Group 1 - Guizhou issued 10-year special local bonds with a scale of 12.2 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 1.72% [1] - The marginal multiple for the 10-year bonds was 1.91 times, with an expected multiple of 1.75 [1] - Guizhou also issued 30-year ordinary special local bonds with a scale of 15 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 2.04% [1] Group 2 - The marginal multiple for the 30-year bonds was 8.33 times, with an expected multiple of 2.00 [1]

Group 1 - Anhui issued 7-year general local bonds with a scale of 12.7967 billion, an issuance rate of 1.6500%, and a marginal multiple of 1.65, with an expected multiple of 1.67 [1] - Anhui issued 10-year general local bonds with a scale of 89.2033 billion, an issuance rate of 1.7300%, and a marginal multiple of 2.44, with an expected multiple of 1.73 [1] - Anhui issued 10-year ordinary special local bonds with a scale of 2.9300 billion, an issuance rate of 1.7400%, and a marginal multiple of 3.77, with an expected multiple of 1.72 [1]

Report Title - "Special Bond Issuance Progress Nearly 50% - Government Bond Weekly Report (7/6)" [1][4] Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of local government bond issuance, including actual and forecasted issuance, special bond issuance progress, and investment - trading indicators [2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Local Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - **Actual Issuance (June 30 - July 6)**: Total issuance was 721.39 billion yuan, with 574.32 billion yuan in new bonds (66.00 billion in new general bonds and 508.22 billion in new special bonds) and 147.07 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (146.37 billion in refinancing general bonds and 0.7 billion in refinancing special bonds) [2][5]. - **Forecasted Issuance (July 7 - July 13)**: Total forecasted issuance is 2249.98 billion yuan, with 716.95 billion yuan in new bonds (145.02 billion in new general bonds and 571.93 billion in new special bonds) and 1533.03 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (828.82 billion in refinancing general bonds and 704.21 billion in refinancing special bonds) [4]. - **Plan vs. Actual**: The report presents a comparison of planned and actual local bond issuance in different regions and time periods [19]. 3.2 Local Bond Net Supply - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of July 6, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 56.50%, and that of new special bonds was 49.17% [24]. - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: The report shows the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities as of July 6 [24]. 3.3 Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bonds**: As of July 6, the fourth - round special refinancing bonds totaled 41653.80 billion yuan, with 17768.55 billion yuan in 2025 and an additional 286.32 billion yuan to be added next week. The top three regions in terms of disclosure scale were Jiangsu, Shandong, and Sichuan [6]. - **Special New Special Bonds**: As of July 6, 2025 special new special bonds totaled 4865.26 billion yuan, and 16770.39 billion yuan since 2023. The top three regions in terms of disclosure scale were Jiangsu, Hubei, and Xinjiang [6]. 3.4 Local Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: The report provides data on local bond primary and secondary spreads [35]. - **Regional Secondary Spread**: It presents secondary spreads in different regions from May 9, 2025, to July 4, 2025 [38]. 3.5 New Special Bond Investment Directions - The report shows the monthly investment statistics of new special bonds, with the latest month only considering issued new bonds [40].

Group 1 - Inner Mongolia issued 15-year special local bonds with a scale of 155 billion yuan and an issuance interest rate of 1.97% [1] - The marginal multiple for the 15-year bonds was 3.17 times, with an expected multiple of 1.96 [1] - Inner Mongolia also issued 20-year special local bonds for rail transit with a scale of 10 billion yuan and an issuance interest rate of 2.03% [1] Group 2 - The marginal multiple for the 20-year rail transit bonds was 10.33 times, with an expected multiple of 2.03 [1]