置换隐债专项债

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地方债周报:哪些期限地方债利差超过20bp-20250825
CMS· 2025-08-25 08:13
证券研究报告 | 债券点评报告 2025 年 08 月 25 日 哪些期限地方债利差超过 20bp ——地方债周报 一、一级市场情况 【净融资】本周地方债共发行 3692 亿元,净融资增加。本周地方债发行量为 3692 亿元,偿还量为 1604 亿元,净融资为 2088 亿元。发行债券中,新增一 般债 95 亿元,新增专项债 2393 亿元,再融资一般债 469 亿元,再融资专项债 735 亿元。 【发行期限】本周 30Y 地方债发行占比最高(29%),10Y 及以上发行占比为 84%,与上周相同。7Y、10Y、15Y、20Y 和 30Y 地方债发行占比分别为 8%、 26%、11%、18%和 29%,其中 30Y 地方债发行占比上升较多,环比上升约 18 个百分点;10Y 地方债发行占比下降较多,环比下降均约 39 个百分点。 【发行利差】本周地方债加权平均发行利差为 23.3bp,较上周有所走阔。其中 15Y 地方债加权平均发行利差最高,达 33.0bp。本周 3Y、7Y、10Y 地方债加 权平均发行利差收窄,其余期限地方债加权平均发行利差均有所走阔。本周山 东、河北、湖南和吉林地方债加权平均发行利差较高 ...
化债进行到哪里了?
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-08-19 05:18
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - "One - package debt - resolution policy" has been in place for two years, and debt resolution has entered the second half. The credit risk is expected to remain controllable during the debt - resolution cycle, and more attention should be paid to the creditworthiness development in the post - debt - resolution cycle [2][3] - As of now, the local government's implicit debt resolution work is expected to have passed the halfway mark. By the end of 2025, the overall progress of platform delisting in the country may reach 70 - 80%, and the resolution progress of operating debts is also expected to exceed half by the end of the year [2][3][39] Summary According to the Table of Contents 2024 - present Debt Resolution Actions - Since the "one - package debt - resolution" proposal, a series of policies centered around the "Document 35" have been introduced, including "Document 47", "Document 14", "Document 134", "Document 150", "Document 226", and "Document 99", which have continuously refined and supplemented the debt - resolution requirements [6][7] Implicit Debt Resolution Progress - In 2025, the issuance of replacement bonds continued to advance, with a disclosed issuance plan of 19042.34 billion yuan and an annual progress of 95.21%. The issuance scale of special new special bonds reached 8505.78 billion yuan [2][8] - Since 2024, a total of 63225.88 billion yuan of debt - resolution funds have been implemented, accounting for 51.4% of the implicit debt balance to be resolved before 2028. As of now, Guangdong, Beijing, Shanghai, 22 prefecture - level cities, and 113 counties have announced the achievement of the goal of "zero implicit debt across the region", and Inner Mongolia announced its withdrawal from the key debt - resolution provinces on July 29 [2][9][13] Delisting Progress - As of the end of 2024, 40% of local government financing platforms had exited the financing platform sequence. As Inner Mongolia withdrew from the key provinces, Chongqing, Guangxi, Liaoning and other places are also actively seeking delisting. It is expected that by the end of 2025, the overall delisting progress in the country may reach 70 - 80% [3][15][16] Operating Debt Disposal - By the end of 2024, the scale of operating financial debts of financing platforms was 14.8 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 25% compared with the beginning of 2023. The bond issuance interest rate has significantly decreased, and high - interest debts in bank loans and non - standard debts are mainly reduced through three ways. The proportion of bank loans in the interest - bearing debt structure has increased rapidly, and the non - standard debts have been significantly reduced [20][23][26] - In 2024, the overall interest payment scale of urban investment was 3.05 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of only 2.06%. The comprehensive financing cost of urban investment platforms was 4.72%, a decrease of about 7bp compared with 2023 [29] Industrial Transformation - The ways of establishing industrial platforms include setting up a holding parent company, separating or integrating industrial - attribute subsidiaries, and developing industrial businesses on the original basis of entities with low urban investment attributes [33] - The injected operating assets depend on local resource endowments. Industrial transformation can also be achieved through equity investment and mergers and acquisitions of listed companies [36] Summary - The "one - package debt - resolution policy" continues to advance, and debt resolution has entered the second half. The credit risk is expected to remain controllable during the debt - resolution cycle, and more attention should be paid to the creditworthiness development in the post - debt - resolution cycle [3][41]
地方债周报:15年地方债相对占优-20250706
CMS· 2025-07-06 14:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in the week of July 06, 2025. It points out that the net financing of local government bonds decreased in the primary market, with long - term issuance proportion declining, the issuance spread narrowing, and the proportion of land reserve investment increasing. In the secondary market, the secondary spreads of 3Y and 15Y local government bonds are advantageous, and the trading volume and turnover rate have slightly increased [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 721 billion yuan, with a repayment of 505 billion yuan and a net financing of 216 billion yuan. The issuance volume and net financing decreased [1]. - **Issuance Term**: The issuance proportion of 10Y local government bonds was the highest at 21%, and the proportion of 10Y and above decreased to 69% compared with last week. The issuance proportion of 20Y local government bonds decreased significantly by about 8 percentage points [1]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: No special refinancing bonds were issued this week. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds for replacing implicit debts, totaling 18,246 billion yuan. Among them, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Shandong, and Guizhou plan to issue 2,511 billion yuan, 1,148 billion yuan, 1,113 billion yuan, and 1,059 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Issuance Spread**: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 8.6bp, narrowing compared with last week. The weighted average issuance spread of 30Y local government bonds was the highest at 12.9bp. Except for the 3Y and 5Y local government bonds, the issuance spreads of other terms narrowed [1]. - **Fund - Raising Direction**: As of the end of this week, the main investment directions of newly - added special bonds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (30%), transportation infrastructure (20%), affordable housing projects (13%), and social undertakings (12%). The proportion of land reserve investment increased by 11.3% compared with 2024, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 7.2% [2]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, 30 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the third quarter of 2025, with a total of 2.62 trillion yuan. Among them, the planned issuance in July is 12,796 billion yuan. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the third quarter is 16,585 billion yuan and 9,623 billion yuan respectively. Next week, the planned issuance of local government bonds is 2,250 billion yuan, with a repayment of 1,216 billion yuan and a net financing of 1,034 billion yuan, an increase of 818 billion yuan compared with this week [3]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spread**: This week, the secondary spreads of 3Y and 15Y local government bonds are advantageous, and the secondary spreads of local government bonds over 10Y narrowed significantly. The secondary spreads of 3Y and 15Y local government bonds are relatively high, reaching 16.9bp and 15.8bp respectively. From the historical quantile of the past 3 years, the historical quantile of the secondary spread of 30Y local government bonds is relatively high at 68%. Regionally, the secondary spreads of local government bonds over 20Y and 3 - 5Y in various regions are relatively high [4][5]. - **Trading Situation**: This week, the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds increased slightly compared with last week. The turnover rates of local government bonds in Sichuan, Jiangxi, and Fujian are relatively high. The trading volume of local government bonds this week reached 5,475 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.06%. Sichuan had the highest turnover rate at 7.0%, and the turnover rates in Jiangxi, Fujian, Guangdong, Hunan and other places were at relatively high levels, all above 1.0% [5].
★今年地方债发行已逾4万亿元 专项债收储土地提速
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-07-03 01:56
Group 1 - The issuance of local government bonds has significantly accelerated, with over 4 trillion yuan issued this year, of which nearly 40% are new special bonds [1] - The new special bonds are primarily directed towards major project construction, with 16.457 billion yuan in new local bonds issued [1] - The issuance of land reserve special bonds has reached 108.348 billion yuan, accounting for 7.75% of the new special bond funds [1] Group 2 - Land reserve activities are concentrated in economically stable regions, with third and fourth-tier cities showing high participation rates, accounting for nearly 75% of acquisition amounts [2] - More than half of the local bonds issued this year are for "borrowing new to repay old," primarily to replace hidden debts, with 82.8% of the planned total already disclosed [2] - The issuance of new local bonds is expected to accelerate, with June's issuance projected at around 1 trillion yuan [3] Group 3 - Infrastructure investment remains a key focus for the funding from new special bonds, with a significant emphasis on construction projects in the real estate sector [3] - The issuance pace of local government bonds is anticipated to increase in the second quarter, with an estimated total of 1.2 trillion yuan for the entire quarter [3]
前六月净发行减少4.3万亿元 三季度供给节奏有望提速
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-06-27 10:16
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that local government bond issuance has slowed down in the first half of the year, with a total issuance of approximately 5.36 trillion yuan, and a net issuance of about 2.48 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of over 4 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [1][2] - Analysts expect that the issuance of local government bonds will accelerate in the third quarter, as the pace of replacement bond issuance has been notably advanced [1][2][6] - The issuance of special bonds for refinancing has begun to speed up, with 33 regions disclosing plans to issue refinancing special bonds totaling nearly 1.8 trillion yuan, aimed at replacing hidden debts [5][6] Group 2 - The government bond supply has shown significant growth compared to last year, with a year-on-year increase of 4.1 trillion yuan in issuance and a net financing increase of 4.4 trillion yuan, providing substantial support for social financing [2] - As of June 27, the total issuance volume of local bonds in June reached over 1 trillion yuan, with a net issuance of 7028.51 billion yuan, indicating a more proactive fiscal policy [6] - The 2025 plan for local bond issuance in the third quarter is estimated at 21.83 trillion yuan, with new special bonds accounting for 12.18 trillion yuan, reflecting a significant increase compared to the previous year [6][8]
地方债周报:地方债或迎来配置窗口-20250615
CMS· 2025-06-15 15:16
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that local bonds may be approaching an allocation window. It analyzes the primary and secondary market conditions of local bonds, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, secondary spreads, and trading volume and turnover rates [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market Conditions - **Net Financing**: This week, local bond issuance was 107.8 billion yuan, with a net repayment of 43 billion yuan. Next week, the planned issuance is 261.8 billion yuan, with a net financing of 124.3 billion yuan, a significant increase compared to this week [1][3]. - **Issuance Terms**: The issuance proportion of 10 - year local bonds was the highest this week (47%), and the proportion of 10 - year and above bonds reached 76%, an increase from last week. The 10 - year bond issuance proportion increased by about 24 percentage points [1]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Bonds**: This week, special refinancing bonds worth 26.7 billion yuan were issued. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds for replacing hidden debts, totaling 1.7362 trillion yuan. Special special bonds worth 1.5 billion yuan were issued this week, and as of the end of this week, the disclosed and issued scales in 2025 were 273 billion yuan and 245.4 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Issuance Spreads**: The weighted average issuance spread of local bonds this week was 12bp, wider than last week. The 30 - year local bond had the highest weighted average issuance spread at 19.3bp. Except for the 5 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds, the spreads of other terms widened [1]. - **Fund - Raising Allocations**: As of the end of this week, the main allocation directions of newly - added special bond funds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (32%), transportation infrastructure (21%), social undertakings (12%), and affordable housing projects (12%). The proportion of land reserve allocations increased by 7.7% compared to 2024 [2]. - **Issuance Plan**: In the second quarter of 2025, 36 regions have disclosed local bond issuance plans, with an estimated total issuance of 2.48 trillion yuan. In June, the planned issuance is 1007.6 billion yuan [30]. 3.2 Secondary Market Conditions - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the secondary spreads of 15 - year and 30 - year local bonds were advantageous, and the secondary spread of 10 - year local bonds narrowed significantly. The secondary spreads of 15 - year and 30 - year bonds were 21bp and 20bp respectively. The historical quantile of the 30 - year bond's secondary spread was 87% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rates**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local bonds increased. Tianjin, Shenzhen, and Ningbo had relatively high turnover rates. The trading volume reached 598.3 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 1.17%. Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Sichuan had large trading volumes [5].
债市启明|二季度隐债置换规模与区域占比
中信证券研究· 2025-04-25 00:09
文 | 明明 李晗 徐烨烽 俞柯帆 来正杰 化债资金前置发行的背景下,一季度地方债发行规模创新高,合计发行2 . 8 4万亿元,其中化债资金1 . 4万亿元,包括1 . 3万亿元 置换隐债专项债和11 7 2亿元特殊新增专项债。但从新增地方债的角度看,一季度发行新增一般债2 7 9 1亿元,新增专项债9 6 0 2亿 元,节奏同比有所加快,但相对其余年份而言仍有差距。展望二季度,当前已公布发行地方债合计规模约2 . 2 3万亿元,在"自审 自发"试点落地后,新增债发行有望加速,也可期待土储专项债的增量发行和化债资金的继续落地。配置角度,当前地方债利差 相对较高,流动性虽有改善,但仍低于市场平均水平,适合负债端稳定的配置机构进行参与。 ▍ 2 0 2 5年一季度地方债发行规模创新高,结构分化凸显政策导向。 2 0 2 5年一季度地方债合计发行2 . 8 4万亿元,同比增长8 1%,超越历年来一季度发行水平。从结构看,一季度专项债发行占比显 著提升,合计发行2 . 4 3万亿元,其中再融资专项债1 . 4万亿元,占发行总量高达5 2%,主要源于地方政府化债资金加速落地需 求。一般债券发行4 1 0 2亿元,占比1 ...