证券研究报告 | 债券点评报告 2026 年 3 月 2 日 3 月计划发行 9347 亿元地方债 ——地方债周报 一、一级市场情况 【净融资】本周地方债共发行 2564 亿元，净融资为 1904 亿元，净融资环比增 加 2118 亿元。本周地方债发行量为 2564 亿元，偿还量为 660 亿元，净融资为 1904 亿元。发行债券中，新增一般债 125 亿元，新增专项债 1272 亿元，再融 资一般债 211 亿元，再融资专项债 956 亿元。 【发行期限】本周 30Y 地方债发行占比最高（51%），10Y 及以上发行占比为 96%，与上一发行周相比有所提升。7Y、10Y、15Y、20Y 和 30Y 地方债发行 占比分别为 1%、22%、12%、11%、51%，其中 30Y 地方债发行占比上升较 多；10Y 地方债发行占比下降较多，环比下降约 9 个百分点。 【发行利差】本周地方债加权平均发行利差为 19.7bp，较上一发行周有所走阔。 其中 30Y 地方债加权平均发行利差最高，达 23.4bp。本周 3Y、10Y、30Y 地方 债发行利差均有走阔，其余期限地方债发行利差有所收窄。本周宁夏、辽宁、 河北发行地 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report focuses on the weekly situation of local government bonds in January 2026, covering both primary and secondary market conditions, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, capital investment directions, and trading volume and turnover rates [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 117.7 billion yuan, with a net financing of 117.7 billion yuan, a 100.2 - billion - yuan increase compared to last week. There was no bond repayment. The issued bonds included 1 billion yuan of new general bonds, 87.4 billion yuan of new special bonds, and 29.2 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds, with no refinancing general bonds [1][9]. - **Issuance Terms**: The 30 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion this week (47%), and the proportion of bonds with a term of 10 years and above was 96%, showing a significant increase from last week. The 30 - year bond issuance proportion increased significantly, while the 3 - year bond issuance proportion decreased by about 47 percentage points [1][13]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: This week, special refinancing bonds worth 29.2 billion yuan were issued. In 2026, five regions have disclosed plans to issue a total of 68.1 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds, all of which are special bonds for replacing hidden debts. Shandong and Liaoning have relatively large issuance volumes, with 25.6 billion yuan and 17 billion yuan respectively. This week, 3.3 billion yuan of special special bonds were issued, and as of the end of this week, 3.3 billion yuan of special special bonds have been disclosed for issuance in 2026, with Qingdao and Ningbo issuing 2.2 billion yuan and 1.1 billion yuan respectively [16][19]. - **Issuance Spreads**: The weighted - average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 21.7bp, widening compared to last week. The 15 - year local government bonds had the highest weighted - average issuance spread at 24.3bp. The weighted - average issuance spreads of 7 - year and 30 - year local government bonds widened, while those of other terms narrowed. Shandong and Zhejiang issued local government bonds this week, with issuance spreads of 22.5bp and 18.8bp respectively [2][24]. - **Raised Funds Investment Directions**: As of the end of this week, the raised funds from new special bonds in 2026 were mainly invested in cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (47%), transportation infrastructure (14%), affordable housing projects (13%), and social undertakings (10%) [2][26]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, some regions have disclosed the issuance plan for local government bonds in the first quarter of 2026, with a total planned issuance of about 2 trillion yuan. Among them, the planned issuance in January is 814.5 billion yuan. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the first quarter is 812.4 billion yuan and 1198 billion yuan respectively. Next week, local government bonds are planned to be issued worth 70.2 billion yuan, with a repayment amount of 9.3 billion yuan and a net financing of 60.9 billion yuan, a 56.7 - billion - yuan decrease compared to this week. The issued bonds will include 22.8 billion yuan of new special bonds, 8.6 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds, and 38.9 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds, with no new general bonds [3][30]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 20 - year local government bonds were relatively high. The issuance spread of 30 - year local government bonds widened, while the secondary spreads of other terms narrowed. The secondary spreads of 3 - year and 20 - year local government bonds reached 13.5bp and 13.1bp respectively. From the perspective of the historical quantile in the past three years, the secondary spreads of 1 - year and 3 - year local government bonds had relatively high historical quantiles, at 39% and 33% respectively. Regionally, local government bonds with a term of less than 5 years in each region had relatively high secondary spreads, and the secondary spreads of 7 - 15 - year bonds in medium - strength regions, 10 - 15 - year bonds in strong regions, and 7 - 10 - year bonds in weak regions were also relatively high, reaching about 14 - 17bp [4][34]. - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rate**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds increased compared to last week. The local government bonds of Qingdao and Shandong had relatively high turnover rates. The trading volume of local government bonds this week reached 321 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.59%. Among them, Shandong's local government bonds had a large trading volume of 57 billion yuan, and the turnover rates of Qingdao and Shandong's local government bonds were relatively high, at 1.9% and 1.7% respectively [5][40].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in 2025 and the planned issuance in 2026Q1, covering aspects such as net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, and trading volume [1][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 2 billion yuan, with a net financing decrease of 31.2 billion yuan. The issuance volume was 2 billion yuan, and the repayment volume was 5.2 billion yuan, resulting in a net repayment of 3.2 billion yuan. Only new special bonds were issued, amounting to 2 billion yuan [1][9]. - **Issuance Terms**: The 20 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion this week (59%), and the proportion of 10 - year and above bonds was 84%, showing a decline compared to last week. The issuance proportions of 5 - year, 10 - year, and 20 - year bonds were 16%, 25%, and 59% respectively, with the 20 - year bond proportion increasing significantly and the 10 - year bond proportion decreasing by about 11 percentage points [1][11]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: No special refinancing bonds were issued this week. In 2025, a total of 2.3097 trillion yuan of special refinancing bonds were disclosed for issuance, including 2 trillion yuan of special bonds for replacing hidden debts. Jiangsu, Hunan, Henan, and Guizhou had 251.1 billion yuan, 128.8 billion yuan, 122.7 billion yuan, and 117.6 billion yuan respectively in special bonds for replacing hidden debts. As of the end of this week, 1.3668 trillion yuan of special special bonds were disclosed for issuance in 2025, with Jiangsu, Guangdong, Henan, and Yunnan issuing 128.9 billion yuan, 112.7 billion yuan, 76 billion yuan, and 73 billion yuan respectively [2][13][15]. - **Issuance Spreads**: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 24.3bp, widening compared to last week. The 20 - year local government bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread, reaching 25.3bp. The weighted average issuance spreads of 5 - year, 10 - year, and 20 - year bonds widened. Hunan and Guangdong had weighted average issuance spreads exceeding 20bp [1][24]. - **Fund - Raising Allocations**: As of the end of this week, the main investment directions of new special bond funds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (28%), transportation infrastructure (17%), land reserve (17%), affordable housing projects (11%), and social undertakings (11%). The proportion of land reserve investment increased by 17.1% compared to 2024, while cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 8.5% [2][26]. - **Issuance Plans**: As of the end of this week, 34 regions disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the fourth quarter of 2025. Considering the actual issuance volumes in October and November, the total disclosed issuance volume for the fourth quarter was about 1.65 trillion yuan, with 176 billion yuan in December. The planned issuances of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the fourth quarter were 935.7 billion yuan and 713.5 billion yuan respectively. Some regions also disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the first quarter of 2026, with a total disclosed issuance volume of about 1.68 trillion yuan, including 692.5 billion yuan in January. The planned issuances of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the first quarter were 619.1 billion yuan and 1.0618 trillion yuan respectively. Next week, local government bonds are planned to issue 26 billion yuan, with a repayment volume of 8.6 billion yuan and a net financing of 17.4 billion yuan, a 20.6 - billion - yuan increase compared to this week [3][28][30]. 2. Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 15 - year local government bonds were relatively high. The issuance spreads of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 7 - year bonds widened, while those of other - term bonds narrowed. The secondary spreads of 3 - year and 15 - year bonds reached 19.5bp and 16.4bp respectively. From the perspective of the historical quantiles in the past three years, the historical quantiles of the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 1 - year bonds were relatively high, at 83% and 61% respectively. Regionally, local government bonds with a term of less than 5 years in each region had relatively high secondary spreads, and the secondary spreads of 7 - 10 - year bonds in weak and medium - strength regions were also relatively high, ranging from 13bp to 16bp [5][33][34]. - **Trading Volume**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds decreased compared to last week. The trading volume of Xinjiang's local government bonds was large, reaching 37.5 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was relatively high, reaching 2.9%. The total trading volume of local government bonds this week was 295.9 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.54% [5][39].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the critical debt - resolution point in June 2027 approaches, the market refocuses on the credit risk of urban investment bonds. The report analyzes the current debt - resolution progress, new trends, and provides an outlook for the post - June 2027 situation, as well as investment strategies [1][9] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents Current Debt - Resolution Progress: Reviewing Results from Data - **Significant achievements but high overall debt**: In 2025, debt risk has been continuously mitigated, with notable results in debt cost reduction, structure optimization, and platform list exits. However, the total debt scale remains high, and the debt ratio of most provinces is rising. As of June 30, 2025, the total "local full - scale debt" exceeded 120 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11% [10][17][19] - **Diversified debt - resolution tools but crowding - out effect on investment**: By December 17, 2025, 2 trillion yuan of "special bonds for replacing implicit debts" have been issued. There are also special new - added special bonds and special refinancing bonds in the issuance process. But debt resolution has crowded out project investment. As of December 5, 2025, the proportion of new - added special bonds for project investment dropped to 58% from 78% in 2024 [24][26] New Trends in the Second Half of Debt Resolution - **Focus on operating debt**: The central government emphasizes "optimizing debt restructuring and replacement methods" for operating debt of urban investment platforms. This may involve continued non - standard debt replacement, possible implicit debt trusteeship (not widely adopted), debt - up - shifting and unified borrowing and repayment, and individual case debt restructuring in extreme situations [34] - **Transformation of urban investment and changes in bond market supply structure**: In the short and medium term, traditional urban investment financing is restricted, while transportation and industrial investment platforms in quasi - urban investment platforms still have financing. The local development impetus is accelerating the transformation from traditional infrastructure to new infrastructure, science and technology innovation, and industrial investment [39] - **Establishment of a long - term debt - resolution mechanism**: The establishment of the Debt Management Department of the Ministry of Finance reflects the trend of upgrading government debt management. At the local level, the revitalization of state - owned assets has become a key task, but there are also potential risks and challenges [48][49] Outlook for the Second Half: What Investors Are Concerned About - **View on weak - region urban investment bonds after June 2027**: The systemic default risk is low, but structural differentiation is a consensus, with valuation fluctuation risk and liquidity risk being more prominent. Regional and platform - level differentiation may occur, and the government's support willingness for different types of platforms varies [56][57][58] - **Risk observation**: Future risk observation of urban investment bonds may shift from traditional indicators to more forward - looking and multi - dimensional sentiment monitoring, including bill overdue, non - standard sentiment, overseas bond issuance, and loan sentiment, as well as the transformation effectiveness of regional transformation entities [61] Investment Strategy - **For short - to medium - duration bonds**: For entities mainly relying on traditional urban investment business, the safety margin of short - to medium - duration bonds is relatively strong, but the cost - effectiveness is limited. Attention should be paid to valuation fluctuation risks. Some regions can sink to lower - rated bonds within 2 years [71] - **For long - duration bonds**: Focus on medium - to high - grade, highly liquid, and large - scale bonds, or some entities with good transformation results and stable cash - flow business. Avoid excessive sinking. The cost - effectiveness of extending the duration in sentiment - affected regions is relatively low [71] - **For weak entities**: Be more cautious about entities with weak regional endowments, unclear transformation directions, and uncertain new business prospects. Pay attention to bond issuance opportunities of some urban investment platforms in line with the development of high - tech and strategic emerging industries under the background of science - innovation bonds [73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds. In the primary market, there are changes in net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, and fundraising directions. In the secondary market, the secondary spreads and trading volume of local government bonds have their own characteristics. [1][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 40 billion yuan, with a net financing decrease of 34.2 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The net financing was 28.1 billion yuan, including 6 billion yuan in new general bonds, 29.3 billion yuan in new special bonds, 3.9 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds, and 0.9 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds. Next week, the planned issuance is 2 billion yuan, with a repayment of 5.2 billion yuan and a net repayment of 3.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 64.1 billion yuan compared to the previous week. [1][3] - **Issuance Terms**: This week, the 10 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion (36%), and the proportion of 10 - year and above issuances was 87%, showing an increase compared to the previous week. The issuance proportions of 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year local government bonds were 5%, 36%, 18%, 7%, and 26% respectively. The issuance proportion of 30 - year local government bonds increased significantly, while that of 20 - year local government bonds decreased by about 14 percentage points. [1] - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: No special refinancing bonds were issued this week. In 2025, 34 regions have disclosed plans to issue a total of 2,298.2 billion yuan in special refinancing bonds, including 2,000 billion yuan in special bonds for replacing implicit debts. Among them, Jiangsu, Hunan, Henan, and Guizhou have 251.1 billion yuan, 128.8 billion yuan, 122.7 billion yuan, and 117.6 billion yuan respectively. This week, 1.2 billion yuan in special special bonds were issued. As of the end of this week, 1,366.8 billion yuan in special special bonds have been disclosed for issuance in 2025. [2][19] - **Issuance Spreads**: This week, the weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds was 20.7bp, widening compared to the previous week. The 15 - year local government bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread, reaching 25bp. The weighted average issuance spreads of 3 - year, 5 - year, and 7 - year local government bonds narrowed, while those of the rest widened. Guangxi, Yunnan, and Xinjiang had weighted average issuance spreads exceeding 20bp. [2] - **Fundraising Directions**: As of the end of this week, the main fundraising directions of new special bonds since 2025 have been cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (28%), transportation infrastructure (17%), land reserve (17%), affordable housing projects (11%), and social undertakings (11%). Compared with 2024, the proportion of land reserve (+17.1%) increased significantly, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (-8.5%) decreased significantly. [2] - **Issuance Plans**: As of the end of this week, 34 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the fourth quarter of 2025. Considering the actual issuance scale in October and November, the total disclosed issuance scale for the fourth quarter is about 1.65 trillion yuan, with 176 billion yuan in December. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the fourth quarter is 935.7 billion yuan and 713.5 billion yuan respectively. Additionally, 18 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the first quarter of 2026, with a total disclosed issuance scale of about 1.07 trillion yuan, including 571.6 billion yuan in January. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the first quarter is 439.6 billion yuan and 625.7 billion yuan respectively. [3] 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 15 - year local government bonds were relatively high, and the secondary spread of 1 - year local government bonds narrowed. The secondary spreads of 3 - year and 15 - year local government bonds reached 18.9bp and 18.7bp respectively. From the perspective of the historical quantile in the past three years, the historical quantiles of the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 30 - year local government bonds were relatively high, at 79% and 55% respectively. Regionally, the secondary spreads of 10 - 15 - year local government bonds in strong and medium - strength regions were relatively high, both above 16bp, and the 3 - 5 - year local government bonds in each region also had relatively high secondary spreads. [5] - **Trading Volume**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds decreased compared to the previous week. The local government bonds in Ningxia and Shenzhen had relatively high turnover rates. The trading volume of local government bonds this week reached 432 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.79%. Among them, the trading volume of Guangdong's local government bonds was large, reaching 40.5 billion yuan; the turnover rates of Ningxia and Shenzhen's local government bonds were relatively high, both reaching 2.3%. [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period (2025.12.01 - 2025.12.07) decreased significantly compared to the previous period, and the expected issuance and net financing in the next period (2025.12.08 - 2025.12.14) are similar to the current period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period is 11.22 years, shorter than the previous period's 15.41 years [2]. - The issuance of new special-purpose bonds has started using the 50 billion yuan remaining quota, and the cumulative issuance in the current and next periods exceeds the original quota by 7.02 billion yuan and 12.02 billion yuan respectively. As of December 5, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special-purpose bonds accounted for 92.8% and 101.6% of the annual quota respectively, and is expected to reach 95.5% and 102.7% considering the next period's expected issuance [2]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds in December 2025 is 157.2 billion yuan, including 49.5 billion yuan of new special-purpose bonds. As of December 5, 2025, 16 regions have disclosed their planned issuance, with the same regions issuing 420.3 billion yuan and 800 million yuan in the same period last year, and the whole country issuing 1091.3 billion yuan and 2.11 billion yuan [2]. - In the current period, 740 million yuan of special new special-purpose bonds were issued, 110 million yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and 5.02 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts were issued. The 2 trillion yuan quota for special-purpose bonds to replace hidden debts this year has been fully issued [2]. - The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds widened comprehensively in the current period, and the weekly turnover rate increased compared to the previous period. As of December 5, 2025, the spreads of 10-year and 30-year local government bonds over treasury bonds were 19.20BP and 24.29BP respectively, widening by 1.32BP and 1.80BP compared to November 28, 2025 [2]. - Currently, the spreads of 15-year, 20-year, and 30-year local government bonds over treasury bonds, especially the 15-year ones, have certain cost-effectiveness [2]. Summary by Directory 1. The issuance volume of local government bonds in the current period decreased, and the weighted issuance term shortened - The total issuance of local government bonds in the current period (2025.12.01 - 2025.12.07) was 108.717 billion yuan (102.54 billion yuan in the previous period), and the expected issuance in the next period (2025.12.08 - 2025.12.14) is 106.954 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period is 11.22 years, shorter than the previous period's 15.41 years [2][9]. - As of December 5, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special-purpose bonds accounted for 92.8% and 101.6% of the annual quota respectively, and is expected to reach 95.5% and 102.7% considering the next period's expected issuance. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 91.2%/99.5% and 92.0%/99.5% respectively, and in 2023 was 95.0%/96.7% and 96.1%/97.9% respectively [2][18]. - In the current period, 740 million yuan of special new special-purpose bonds were issued, 110 million yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and 5.02 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts were issued. As of December 5, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special-purpose bonds was 135.83 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 200 billion yuan, reaching 100% of the issuance progress, and the quota for this year has been fully issued; since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts (possibly from the 50 billion yuan remaining quota mentioned in the Ministry of Finance's press conference on October 17) was 27.06 billion yuan [2][20]. 2. The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds widened comprehensively in the current period, and the weekly turnover rate increased compared to the previous period - As of December 5, 2025, the spreads of 10-year and 30-year local government bonds over treasury bonds were 19.20BP and 24.29BP respectively, widening by 1.32BP and 1.80BP compared to November 28, 2025, and were at the 49.80% and 94.30% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2][33]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period was 0.87%, up from the previous period's 0.69%. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Jilin, and Tianjin were better than the national average [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the net financing of local government bonds decreased, and the weighted - average issuance spread widened. The secondary spreads of local government bonds narrowed, and the trading volume and turnover rate increased [1][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 916 billion yuan, with a net financing decrease of 213.9 billion yuan. The net repayment was 36 billion yuan. There was no new general - purpose bond, 45.2 billion yuan of new special - purpose bonds, 33.7 billion yuan of refinancing general - purpose bonds, and 12.7 billion yuan of refinancing special - purpose bonds [1][9]. - **Issuance term**: This week, the 7 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion (28%), and the proportion of 10 - year and above bonds increased to 72%. The proportion of 20 - year bonds increased significantly, while the proportion of 5 - year bonds decreased by about 15 percentage points [1][12]. - **Debt - resolution - related local government bonds**: This week, 5.7 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds were issued. In 2025, 34 regions have disclosed plans to issue 2.1074 trillion yuan of special bonds to replace hidden debts. Jiangsu, Guizhou, Hunan, and Henan plan to issue 274.6 billion yuan, 132.4 billion yuan, 128.8 billion yuan, and 118.9 billion yuan respectively. This week, 1 billion yuan of special special - purpose bonds were issued. As of the end of this week, 1.2918 trillion yuan of special special - purpose bonds have been disclosed for issuance in 2025, with Jiangsu, Guangdong, Yunnan, and Hebei issuing 128.9 billion yuan, 102.7 billion yuan, 73 billion yuan, and 70.2 billion yuan respectively [2][13][18]. - **Issuance spread**: This week, the weighted - average issuance spread of local government bonds was 19.5bp, wider than last week. The 3 - year bonds had the highest spread at 27.2bp. Except for 5 - year and 10 - year bonds, the spreads of other - term bonds widened. Inner Mongolia, Hubei, and Yunnan had spreads over 20bp [1][23]. - **Fund - raising direction**: As of the end of this week, the main investment directions of new special - purpose bonds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (29%), transportation infrastructure (18%), land reserve (16%), affordable housing projects (12%), and social undertakings (11%). Compared with 2024, the proportion of land reserve increased by 16.0%, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 7.9% [2][26]. - **Issuance plan**: As of the end of this week, 33 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the fourth quarter of 2025. Considering the actual issuance in October, the total planned issuance for the fourth quarter is about 1.3 trillion yuan, with 701.6 billion yuan in November. New bonds and refinancing bonds are planned to issue 693.1 billion yuan and 580.7 billion yuan respectively. Next week, 285.1 billion yuan of local government bonds are planned to be issued, with a repayment of 42.3 billion yuan and a net financing of 242.8 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 278.8 billion yuan [3][29][30]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary spread**: This week, the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 15 - year local government bonds were relatively high. Except for 1 - year bonds, the secondary spreads of other - term bonds narrowed. The spreads of 3 - year, 15 - year, and 20 - year bonds were 16.7bp, 17.5bp, and 16.2bp respectively. In terms of historical quantiles in the past three years, the 3 - year and 30 - year bonds had relatively high quantiles, reaching 65% and 59% respectively. Regionally, the 3 - 5 - year bonds in each region had relatively high spreads, all between 15 - 17bp, and the bonds over 10 - year in medium - level regions also had relatively high spreads [5][32]. - **Trading situation**: This week, the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds increased compared with last week. The trading volume reached 477 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.89%. Guangdong had a large trading volume of 77.4 billion yuan, and Jiangxi and Guangdong had relatively high turnover rates of 2.7% and 2.1% respectively [5][37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that 5Y and 7Y local bonds are cost - effective, and conducts a comprehensive analysis of the primary and secondary markets of local bonds, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, secondary spreads, and trading volume [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local bonds issued a total of 103 billion yuan, with a net repayment of 246 billion yuan due to a repayment amount of 348 billion yuan. The issued bonds were all refinancing general bonds [1][9]. - **Issuance Term**: The 7Y local bond issuance accounted for the highest proportion (54%) this week, with the 10Y and above issuance accounting for 46%. The 7Y local bond issuance proportion increased by about 50 percentage points compared to last week, while the 10Y decreased by about 24 percentage points [1][12]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Bonds**: No special refinancing bonds were issued this week. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue a total of 2001.9 billion yuan in special bonds to replace hidden debts, with Jiangsu, Hunan, Guizhou, and Henan having 251.1 billion, 128.8 billion, 127.1 billion, and 115.1 billion yuan respectively. As of the end of this week, the disclosed and issued scales of special special - purpose bonds in 2025 are 1206 billion and 1202.9 billion yuan respectively [2][15][20]. - **Issuance Spread**: The weighted average issuance spread of local bonds this week was 18.9bp, narrowing compared to last week. The 10Y local bond had the highest weighted average issuance spread at 21.9bp, and the spreads of 7Y and 10Y local bonds both narrowed. Only Anhui issued local bonds this week [1][25]. - **Raised Funds Allocation**: As of the end of this week, the main allocation directions of newly - added special - purpose bond funds in 2025 are cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (29%), transportation infrastructure (18%), land reserve (14%), affordable housing projects (12%), and social undertakings (12%). The proportion of land reserve allocation increased by 14.2% compared to 2024, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 7.5% [2][26]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, 35 regions have disclosed their local bond issuance plans for the fourth quarter of 2025, with a total planned issuance scale of 896.6 billion yuan, of which 544.8 billion yuan is for October. The planned issuance amounts of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the fourth quarter are 556.7 billion and 339.8 billion yuan respectively. Next week, local bonds are planned to be issued at 32.3 billion yuan, with a repayment amount of 52.1 billion yuan and a net repayment of 19.8 billion yuan, a 4.8 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week [3][30][34]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spread**: This week, the secondary spreads of 5Y and 10Y local bonds were relatively high, reaching 17.5bp and 17bp respectively. The secondary spreads of 30Y, 3Y, 20Y, and 15Y local bonds narrowed, while those of other maturities widened. In terms of historical quantiles in the past three years, the secondary spreads of 5Y and 7Y local bonds were at relatively high levels, reaching 76% and 74% respectively. Regionally, the secondary spreads of 5Y - 15Y local bonds in each region were relatively high, all greater than or close to 15bp, and the 15Y - 20Y local bonds in medium - level regions also had relatively high secondary spreads [4][5]. - **Trading Volume**: Due to the holiday, the trading volume and turnover rate of local bonds decreased compared to last week. The trading volume of local bonds this week was 91.3 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.17%. Guangdong had a large trading volume of 12.7 billion yuan, and Ningxia had the highest turnover rate at 2.2% [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report focuses on the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in the week of September 22, 2025, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, and trading volume. It also provides an outlook on the issuance plan for the third and fourth quarters of 2025 [1][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market Conditions - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 188.5 billion yuan, with a net financing of 30.9 billion yuan. The issuance of new general bonds was 20.7 billion yuan, new special bonds 97.8 billion yuan, refinancing general bonds 23.9 billion yuan, and refinancing special bonds 46.1 billion yuan [1]. - **Issuance Terms**: The 10 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion (25%), and the issuance proportion of bonds with a term of 10 years and above was 77%, an increase from last week. The issuance proportion of 15 - year bonds increased by about 13 percentage points, while that of 30 - year bonds decreased by about 18 percentage points [1]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: This week, special refinancing bonds worth 21.4 billion yuan were issued. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds for replacing implicit debt, totaling 1,995.7 billion yuan [2]. - **Issuance Spreads**: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 22bp, narrowing compared to last week. The weighted average issuance spread of 15 - year local government bonds was the highest, reaching 25.0bp [2]. - **Fund - Raising Allocations**: As of the end of this week, the main areas of new special bond fund - raising in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (29%), transportation infrastructure (18%), land reserves (14%), affordable housing projects (12%), and social undertakings (12%). The proportion of land reserves increased by 14.1% compared to 2024, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 7.6% [2]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, 35 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the third quarter of 2025, with a total expected issuance of 2.9 trillion yuan. Some regions have also disclosed their fourth - quarter issuance plans, totaling 566.6 billion yuan, with 388.2 billion yuan scheduled for October [3]. 3.2 Secondary Market Conditions - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the secondary spreads of 5 - year and 10 - year local government bonds were relatively high, at 13.8bp and 13.1bp respectively. The secondary spreads of 20 - year and 30 - year local government bonds widened. Regionally, the secondary spreads of 3 - 5 - year local government bonds in each region were relatively high, all above 14bp [5]. - **Trading Volume**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds increased compared to last week. Hunan had the highest turnover rate, reaching 2.5%. The trading volumes of Hunan, Jiangsu, and Guangdong were relatively large, at 60.6 billion yuan, 54.3 billion yuan, and 47.1 billion yuan respectively [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report focuses on the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in the week of August 25, 2025, including issuance volume, net financing, maturity structure, issuance spreads, capital investment, and trading volume and turnover rate [1][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 369.2 billion yuan, with an increase in issuance volume and net financing. The net financing was 208.8 billion yuan, including 9.5 billion yuan in new general bonds, 239.3 billion yuan in new special bonds, 46.9 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds, and 73.5 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds [1]. - **Issuance Maturity**: The issuance proportion of 30 - year local government bonds was the highest at 29%, and the proportion of 10 - year and above issuances was 84%, the same as last week. The 30 - year issuance proportion increased by about 18 percentage points, while the 10 - year decreased by about 39 percentage points [1]. - **Local Government Bonds Related to Debt Resolution**: This week, 24.5 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds were issued. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue a total of 1,936.7 billion yuan in special bonds to replace hidden debts, with Jiangsu, Sichuan, Shandong, and Guizhou having 251.1 billion yuan, 114.8 billion yuan, 111.3 billion yuan, and 109.2 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Issuance Spread**: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 23.3bp, widening compared to last week. The 15 - year weighted average issuance spread was the highest at 33.0bp. The spreads of 3 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year bonds narrowed, while others widened. Shandong, Hebei, Hunan, and Jilin had higher spreads over 27bp, while Zhejiang had a relatively low spread [2]. - **Fund Raising Allocation**: As of the end of this week, the main allocation of new special bond funds in 2025 was to cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure (25%), social undertakings (18%), affordable housing projects (18%), transportation infrastructure (15%), and land reserves (11%). The proportion of land reserve allocation increased by 10.3% compared to 2024, while cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure decreased by 11.6% [2]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, 35 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the third quarter of 2025, with a total expected issuance of 2.9 trillion yuan. The planned issuance in August is 1,006.9 billion yuan. Next week, the planned issuance is 351.6 billion yuan, with a repayment of 108.1 billion yuan and a net financing of 243.5 billion yuan, a 34.7 - billion - yuan increase from last week [3]. 2. Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spread**: This week, the secondary spread of 15 - year local government bonds was relatively high, and the spreads of 15 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year bonds widened significantly. The 15 - year secondary spread was 21.7bp, and the 30 - year secondary spread's historical quantile in the past three years was 57%. Regionally, the secondary spreads of 10 - 15 - year bonds in various regions were relatively high, and those of 15 - 20 - year bonds in medium - level regions were also relatively high [6]. - **Trading Volume**: This week, the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds decreased compared to last week. The trading volume was 337.5 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.64%. Hebei, Guangdong, and Hunan had relatively high turnover rates, all above 1.4% [6].