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独家洞察 | 避险资产2.0时代:黄金+比特币才是真王道!
慧甚FactSet· 2025-08-13 08:55
Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the performance and potential of gold and Bitcoin as alternative assets in the context of increasing geopolitical uncertainty, exploring their effectiveness as stores of value during unstable periods [3][57]. Group 1: Historical Context of Gold - Historically, gold has been a reliable anchor for monetary systems, oscillating between the gold standard and excessive debt, leading to inflation and financial instability [4]. - During the Roman Empire, gold and silver were crucial to the currency system, but inflation arose from the dilution of silver content in coins, eroding public trust [4][5]. - Gold's reliability as a safe haven is highlighted during the 1970s when uncertainty in U.S. fiscal policy led to a loss of confidence in fiat currencies [5][9]. Group 2: Characteristics of Gold - Gold enhances portfolio diversification and provides tail risk hedging, making it an important tool for risk management [9]. - In times of economic recession, gold has shown resilience, particularly during periods of high inflation, as seen in the 1970s stagflation [17]. - Gold typically exhibits a stable upward trend in controlled inflation environments, as evidenced during the global financial crisis and early COVID-19 pandemic [17]. Group 3: Bitcoin as "Digital Gold" - Bitcoin is characterized by high price volatility, often experiencing double-digit fluctuations within short periods, contrasting sharply with gold's stability [10]. - Since the introduction of Bitcoin futures in 2017, its long-term appreciation has significantly outpaced that of gold, with a low average correlation of 0.14 between the two assets [10]. - Bitcoin's decentralized nature and limited supply appeal to investors seeking high-growth potential assets that are less correlated with traditional markets [10][57]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Demand - Gold remains a key player in global financial markets, with central banks significantly influencing demand; investment demand for gold increased by 25% year-on-year, driven by substantial ETF inflows [39][40]. - Bitcoin's demand is bolstered by growing acceptance among individuals, businesses, and some governments, with institutional interest rising as they hold approximately 21% of mined Bitcoin [46]. - The inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs reached $12.5 billion year-to-date, indicating strong institutional interest, while gold ETFs attracted $16.6 billion during the same period, suggesting coexistence of interest in both assets [46]. Group 5: Supply and Liquidity - Bitcoin's supply is strictly capped at 21 million coins, with a halving mechanism that reduces the rate of new coin production, enhancing its scarcity [24]. - In contrast, gold supply is more elastic, as miners can increase production in response to improved economic conditions, leading to a more variable supply over time [29]. Group 6: Correlation and Market Behavior - Historically, gold has shown a negative correlation with risk assets, making it an attractive hedge during market downturns; however, this correlation has recently shifted to a positive trend [33]. - Bitcoin initially had a low correlation with stocks, but this has increased in recent years, particularly during liquidity-driven bull and bear markets [33]. Group 7: Conclusion - While Bitcoin's performance during crises and increasing institutional adoption suggest its evolution towards a digital safe-haven asset, its primary value lies in its disruptive growth potential rather than directly replacing gold's traditional safe-haven function [57]. - Combining gold and Bitcoin in investment portfolios may enhance diversification due to their low correlation with traditional assets, with gold providing stability and Bitcoin offering exposure to technological innovation and high growth potential [57].
币圈是什么最新解析:美国政策护航数字经济,XBIT平台引领创新
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-12 07:01
Group 1: Economic Environment and Policy Impact - The U.S. economy is entering a "dual high" era with high tariffs and interest rates, creating "stagflation-like" pressures that increase costs for businesses and consumers [3] - Trump's policy statements have injected new vitality into the digital asset market, with his comments on gold not being taxed leading to a short-term increase in gold prices and indirectly boosting the investment value of Bitcoin as "digital gold" [3] - The potential appointment of new Federal Reserve leadership is expected to create a more stable policy environment for the digital asset industry [3] Group 2: Bitcoin Price Surge and Market Confidence - Bitcoin has reached historical highs in South Korea, with prices on exchanges like Bithumb hitting 166,999,000 KRW, driven by multiple favorable factors including Trump's executive order allowing pension funds to invest in crypto assets [5] - The phenomenon of "reverse premium" indicates that Bitcoin prices in KRW are lower than in USD, reflecting regional differences in market perception of digital asset value and strong long-term confidence from global investors [5] - The essence of cryptocurrencies is being redefined from speculative tools to mainstream financial infrastructure, with platforms like XBIT focusing on user asset security and decentralized trading [5][8] Group 3: Decentralized Governance and Technological Innovation - The Uniswap Foundation is proposing to establish a new legal entity under Wyoming's DUNA framework, which will formalize governance activities and protect participants in collective decision-making [7] - XBIT.Exchange showcases unique advantages in decentralized trading technology, operating without KYC, restrictions, or audits, ensuring users maintain control over their assets [7][8] - The evolution of the cryptocurrency ecosystem is moving beyond speculation to a comprehensive system integrating technological innovation, financial engineering, legal compliance, and global governance [8]
比特币重返120000美元!专家预计本月突破历史高点
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-11 10:14
BTC Markets加密分析师Rachael Lucas表示:"比特币向历史高位攀升,得益于机构资金持续流入企业财 务、美国现货ETF,以及在美国对进口金条加征新关税后市场情绪的转变。随着黄金面临供应瓶颈和政 策风险,比特币作为一种无国界、免关税的价值储存工具,正越来越受到投资者青睐。" 专家还预计,积极的宏观经济前景继续支撑包括加密货币在内的风险资产,预计比特币本月将突破历史 高点。 据智通财经报道,虽然比特币拥有"数字黄金"之称,但近年来其价格趋势与风险资产高度相关。专注于 加密货币的情报通讯Ecoinometrics上周日表示,纳斯达克和比特币之间的相关性增强,可以解释该代币 最近价格走势的缘由。 8月11日,比特币一度上涨3.2%,突破12.2万美元。7月14日,比特币首次突破12万美元并创历史新高后 持续震荡下行,近几个交易日则呈现反弹态势。上周末,以太坊大涨至4300美元上方,创下自2021年12 月以来的最高水平。 数字资产主要经纪商FalconX Ltd.亚太区衍生品交易主管Sean McNulty进一步指出,比特币和以太币的 仓位严重偏向9月和12月的看涨期权,以押注宏观降息时机以及传统金 ...
2025“避险之王”争霸赛:“数字黄金”有望跑赢实物黄金?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-08-11 05:34
AI播客:换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 尽管黄金和比特币两种资产在2025年都出现了上涨并屡创新高,但截至上周五,黄金的表现仍然领先。 当天早些时候,在一份美国裁定1公斤和100盎司金条将被征收关税的报告发布后,黄金期货价格一度上 涨,但随后有报道称特朗普政府计划澄清进口金条将被豁免,金价随之收窄了涨幅。 尽管如此,黄金今年的优势可能反映了一个更广泛的趋势,即加剧的地缘政治紧张局势和关税担忧,已 使传统的避险资产比新的替代品更具优势。加密货币的多头们长期以来一直将比特币宣传为"数字黄 金",认为它最终可能扮演类似的角色。但分析师表示,就目前而言,黄金作为危机对冲工具的悠久传 统正在占据上风。 美国银行资产管理集团的高级投资策略总监Rob Haworth说,"今年,黄金无疑比比特币等加密货币更多 地受益于避险资金的流入。" Currency Research Associates的分析师在上周五的一份报告中写道,从技术角度来看,比特币的短期势 头已转为负面,而黄金则保持积极,这表明未来一周金价有进一步上涨的潜力。 从更长远来看,Castle Funds的总裁兼首席投资官Peter Eberle ...
稳坐避险资产“C位”!金价再创历史新高 年内涨幅超比特币
智通财经网· 2025-08-08 23:58
Group 1 - Gold futures prices have reached a record high of $3,491.30 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 30.8% [5] - Bitcoin has seen a year-to-date increase of 24.6%, but it has declined by 5.4% from its historical high of $123,165.67 on July 14 [5] - The S&P 500 index has risen by 8.6% this year, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has only increased by 3.8% [5] Group 2 - Central banks globally have accelerated gold purchases due to geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and macroeconomic uncertainties [2] - Traditional safe-haven assets like gold are preferred over newer alternatives like Bitcoin, which lacks a long history as a reserve asset [2] - The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX.US) has surged by 71% year-to-date, while the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD.US) has increased by 29% [6]
比特币暴跌引爆亚太市场,16万人爆仓背后暗藏全球危机
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-08 02:16
Group 1 - A sudden market storm hit the Asia-Pacific region on August 1, 2025, triggered by a significant drop in Bitcoin, leading to a global market turmoil with 160,000 people liquidated and losses amounting to 4.23 billion RMB [1][5] - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan experienced a maximum decline of 1%, while the South Korean Composite Index fell by 3% [4][8] - The adjustment of tariffs by the U.S. President Trump, ranging from 10% to 41%, ignited a risk-averse sentiment among global investors, causing a rapid flight of capital [2][10] Group 2 - Bitcoin's price fell below $115,000, marking a nearly 3% drop within the day, which shattered previous hopes for new highs [4][12] - The manufacturing PMI data for Japan and South Korea in July was disappointing, further undermining market confidence [7] - The market downturn was attributed to multiple factors, including tariff adjustments, poor economic data, and pervasive market anxiety, with uncertainty being the primary concern [7][10] Group 3 - The A-share market showed resilience with a surprising reversal, particularly in the pharmaceutical and education sectors, indicating that capital is actively seeking new opportunities [4][12] - The cryptocurrency market is viewed as a high-risk asset, with experts highlighting the significant market, technical, and regulatory risks it faces [8][10] - The recent market events reflect a broader struggle among global political, economic, and technological forces, suggesting that investors need to develop a keen sense of judgment and timing to navigate the complexities [12][14]
比特币价格突破历史新高 最新行情分析 XBIT带你把握投资机遇
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-07 08:02
Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market has experienced a significant breakthrough, with Bitcoin's price surpassing $115,000, marking an increase of over 160% since the beginning of the year, attracting global investor attention [1] - Institutional funds and heightened market sentiment are driving this surge, with analysts noting that the Trump administration's favorable policies towards cryptocurrencies have acted as a catalyst for Bitcoin's price increase [1][5] - Bitcoin's performance has led Wall Street institutions to raise their year-end price targets, with predictions suggesting it could reach $130,000 by the end of the year [1] Bitcoin Market Dynamics - Bitcoin trading volume increased by 35% in the past week, reaching a new high for the year, indicating strong market activity [1] - The ongoing inflationary pressures have highlighted Bitcoin's anti-inflation characteristics, drawing more investors seeking asset preservation [1][5] - In July, net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $6 billion, setting a historical record and providing robust support for Bitcoin's price [5] Ethereum and Layer 2 Solutions - Ethereum also showed strong performance, with its price breaking $5,800 and active addresses on the network increasing by 23% over the past 30 days, indicating growing user participation [4] - Layer 2 solutions like Arbitrum and Optimism have reached record high locked values, reflecting a healthy development within the Ethereum ecosystem [4] Institutional and Retail Investor Trends - Over 180 publicly traded companies globally hold Bitcoin, with a total value exceeding $140 billion, indicating a trend towards institutional investment that is expected to further drive Bitcoin's price [8] - Retail investor participation is also on the rise, with new wallet addresses increasing by 18% in July, suggesting a growing market engagement [8] XBIT Decentralized Exchange Features - XBIT decentralized exchange offers a secure and transparent trading environment, with features such as no KYC requirements and user control over private keys, catering to the increasing demand for high liquidity and low slippage [4][5] - The platform's efficient clearing mechanisms and diverse trading pairs help users navigate the complex market environment [5][8]
亚太股市集体下跌,比特币破115000美元,超16万人爆仓
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-01 02:44
今天早盘,亚太股市集体下跌,比特币也大幅跳水! 据央视新闻报道,此前美国总统特朗普宣布调整多个国家的"对等关税"税率,更新后的税率区间为10%至41%(→)。这一消息引发了市场担忧,导致股 市普遍承压。 日韩股市大跌 韩国综合指数低开低走,截至9:25,跌幅扩大至超过3%。 | 3144.46 | | 昨收 | 3245.44 | 成交额 | 0.00 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -100.98 -3.11% | | 今开 | 3210.32 | 成交量 | 0 | | 上涨 | 0 | 平盘 | O | 下跌 | O | | 最高价 | 3210.32 | 市盈率 | 14.9 | 近20日 | 2.95% | | 最低价 | 3143.46 | 市净率 | 1.09 | 今年来 31.05% | | | સ્ત્રેન્વ | | | 五日 日K 周K 月K 更多 ◎ | | | | 叠加 | | | | | | | 3347.42 | | | | | 3.14% | | 32 5,44 | | | | | 0.00% | | 3143.46 | | ...
亚太股市集体下跌,比特币破115000美元,超16万人爆仓
21世纪经济报道· 2025-08-01 02:06
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant downturn in the Asia-Pacific stock markets and Bitcoin prices, primarily driven by concerns over the U.S. government's tariff adjustments announced by President Trump, which have raised tariffs on several countries to a range of 10% to 41% [1]. Market Performance - The Asia-Pacific stock markets collectively experienced declines, with the South Korean Composite Index dropping over 3% [3]. - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan saw a decline of nearly 1%, with Tokyo Electron's stock plummeting nearly 18% after the company lowered its profit forecast [10]. - The Taiwan Stock Exchange's weighted index fell approximately 1.2%, while the Australian S&P/ASX 200 index decreased by 0.94% [11]. Manufacturing Data - Recent manufacturing data from Japan and South Korea for July showed declines, with Japan's PMI at 48.9 (previously 48.8) and South Korea's HSBC manufacturing PMI at 48 (previously 48.7) [10]. Bitcoin Market - Bitcoin prices fell below $115,000, with a nearly 3% drop recorded on August 1 [19]. - In the last 24 hours, approximately 160,000 traders faced liquidation, amounting to $629 million (around 4.23 billion yuan) [22]. - Bitcoin had previously reached a high of over $120,000 on July 14, but it remains a volatile asset amid ongoing regulatory and market risks [25].
超级贸易战、央行数字货币联盟与数字金本位国际货币体系——基于全球治理科学视角的分析
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-22 09:04
Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of the global trade war initiated by the Trump administration on international trade and economic stability, emphasizing China's role in countering these uncertainties and promoting a new international monetary system [1][2][6] - The concept of "super trade war" is introduced, highlighting its distinct characteristics compared to ordinary trade wars, including a larger number of participating countries and more complex trade dynamics [2][3] - The article outlines the weakening of traditional Western reserve currencies, particularly the US dollar, due to the trade war, and the rise of emerging currencies like the Chinese yuan as potential new anchors in the international monetary system [3][5][6] Group 2 - The article identifies four main effects of the super trade war on the international monetary system, including the accelerated decline of the dollar's dominance, increased financial risks, heightened currency volatility, and the dysfunction of international balance mechanisms [7][9][10][12] - It emphasizes the need for a new international monetary system based on digital gold, which could provide a stable value anchor and facilitate fairer global financial interactions [14][15][20] - The establishment of a Central Bank Digital Currency Alliance is proposed as a means to coordinate and regulate the new monetary system, with China positioned as a leading force in this initiative [19][21][26]