Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply - side production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level, while demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8245 - 8535 for the 2511 contract. The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [6]. - For polysilicon, supply - side production scheduling continues to increase, demand - side silicon wafer and cell production continue to increase, and component production decreases in the short - term but is expected to recover in the medium - term. Overall demand shows continuous recovery, and cost support has weakened. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48495 - 50615 for the 2511 contract [10]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 90,000 tons, a 2.27% increase from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 82,000 tons, a 380% increase from the previous week, and demand has increased [6]. - **Inventory**: Silicon inventory is 213,000 tons, at a low level; organic silicon inventory is 54,300 tons, at a low level; aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 54,600 tons, at a high level; social inventory is 541,000 tons, a 0.36% decrease from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 173,500 tons, a 0.91% decrease from the previous week; and the inventory of major ports is 119,000 tons, a 1.71% increase from the previous week [6]. - **Cost**: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 3254 yuan/ton, and the cost support has weakened during the wet season [6]. - **Basis**: On August 29th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 8950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 560 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions have increased [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon production was 31,000 tons, a 6.52% increase from the previous week. The production scheduling for August is predicted to be 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 15.63GW, a 27.17% increase from the previous week; the inventory was 180,500 tons, a 3.67% increase from the previous week, and currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. In August, the production scheduling is 53.29GW, a 1.02% increase from the previous month. In July, the cell production was 58.19GW, a 0.20% increase from the previous month; last week, the inventory of cell external sales factories was 7.03GW, a 20.99% increase from the previous week, and currently, cell production is in a loss state. In August, the production scheduling is 59.15GW, a 1.64% increase from the previous month. In July, the component production was 47.1GW, a 1.72% increase from the previous month; the expected component production in August is 46.82GW, a 0.59% decrease from the previous month; the domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease from the previous month; the European monthly inventory is 29.8GW, a 2.29% decrease from the previous month, and currently, component production is in a profitable state [9]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 35,570 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,430 yuan/ton [9]. - **Basis**: On August 29th, the price of N - type dense material was 48,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 555 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [11]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 213,000 tons, a 14.45% decrease from the previous week, and it is at a historical low for the same period [11]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and long positions have decreased [10]. 2. Industrial Silicon Market Overview - The prices of various industrial silicon contracts and spot prices have shown different degrees of decline, and inventory has also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [17]. 3. Polysilicon Market Overview - The prices of various polysilicon contracts and related product prices have shown different degrees of change, and production, inventory, and other data have also changed [19]. 4. Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends - The report shows the trends of the basis of the SI main contract and the price spread between East China 421 and 553 silicon over time [22]. 5. Industrial Silicon Inventory - It presents the inventory trends of industrial silicon in delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises over time [25][26]. 6. Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - It shows the weekly production trends of sample enterprises in different regions and the monthly production trends by specification, as well as the enterprise start - up rate trends [29][30][31]. 7. Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends - It shows the cost and profit trends of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan regions and oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang region over time [35]. 8. Industrial Silicon Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Tables - The weekly supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon over time. The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the actual consumption, export, import, and other data for different months [37][40]. 9. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - **DMC Price and Production Trends**: It shows the DMC capacity utilization rate, cost - profit, and production trends over time [43]. - **Downstream Price Trends**: It shows the price trends of products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 over time [45]. - **Import - Export and Inventory Trends**: It shows the import, export, and inventory trends of DMC over time [49]. 10. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Supply Situation**: It shows the waste aluminum recycling, inventory, import of aluminum crushed materials, and the import - export situation of unfabricated aluminum alloy, as well as the price trends of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 and the cost - profit trends of imported ADC12 [52]. - **Inventory and Production Trends**: It shows the monthly production trends of primary and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly start - up rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and the social inventory trends of aluminum alloy ingots [55]. - **Demand (Automobiles and Wheels)**: It shows the monthly production of automobiles, the export trends of aluminum alloy wheels, and the monthly sales of automobiles [56]. 11. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - **Fundamental Trends**: It shows the cost, price, inventory, production, start - up rate, and demand trends of polysilicon over time [60]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the consumption, export, import, supply, and balance data of polysilicon for different months [63]. - **Silicon Wafer Trends**: It shows the price, weekly production, weekly inventory, monthly demand, and net export trends of silicon wafers over time [66]. - **Cell Trends**: It shows the price, production scheduling, actual production, inventory, start - up rate, and export trends of cells over time [69]. - **Photovoltaic Component Trends**: It shows the price, domestic and European inventory, monthly production, and export trends of photovoltaic components over time [72]. - **Photovoltaic Accessory Trends**: It shows the price trends of photovoltaic coatings, the import - export trends of photovoltaic films, the monthly production and export trends of photovoltaic glass, the price trends of high - purity quartz sand, and the import - export trends of solder strips [75]. - **Component Composition Cost - Profit Trends (210mm)**: It shows the cost and profit trends of silicon materials, silicon wafers, cells, and components in 210mm double - sided double - glass components over time [77]. - **Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation Trends**: No specific content analysis provided as there is no detailed description of the chart in the text.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil: There is no new fundamental driver, waiting for a pullback [1] - Soybean oil: The trading of soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has been suspended, undergoing a pullback and consolidation [1] 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 9,344 yuan/ton (down 0.87% during the day, up 0.11% at night), soybean oil主力 at 8,442 yuan/ton (down 0.26% during the day, down 1.07% at night), and other futures prices also showed different changes [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures all decreased [2] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong remained unchanged, soybean oil increased by 10 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi decreased by 30 yuan/ton [2] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 126 yuan/ton, soybean oil was 318 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was -104 yuan/ton [2] - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between different futures contracts of various oils showed different changes [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **USDA Drought Monitoring Report**: As of the week ending August 26, about 11% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 9% the previous week and the same as last year [3] - **USDA Monthly Crushing Forecast**: The estimated soybean crushing volume in the US in July is expected to increase to 621.8 million short tons (2072 million bushels), a 5.1% increase from June and a 7.2% increase from July 2024. The estimated soybean oil inventory at the end of July is 1903 million pounds, a 0.5% increase from the end of June and a 5.2% decrease from July 2024 [4][6] - **Deral**: The rural economic department of Brazil's Paraná state expects the soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season to increase by 1% to about 5.8 million hectares, and the output may increase by 4% to about 22 million tons [6] - **South Mato Grosso, Brazil**: The sowing of the 2025/26 soybean crop will start on September 16 and may last until December 31 [6] - **SAGyP**: As of the week ending August 20, Argentine farmers sold 394,200 tons of 2024/25 soybeans and 118,900 tons of 2025/26 soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 29.8956 million tons and 789,600 tons respectively [7] - **Canada Statistics**: The estimated rapeseed output in Canada in 2025 will increase by 3.6% to 19.9 million tons, with different changes in yield per acre and harvested area in different provinces [8] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report provides daily research and analysis on various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The overall view is that most commodities are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, and logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Market Outlook**: Due to the repeated macro - expectations, it will experience wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [2][4]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the I2601 futures contract was 790.5 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton with a 1.93% increase. The position increased by 17,754 hands. Spot prices of imported and domestic ores remained unchanged. Some basis and spread values changed, such as the basis (I2601 to Super Special) decreasing by 15 yuan/ton [4]. - **News**: On August 27, the Shanghai Municipal People's Government Office issued an implementation opinion on accelerating the renovation of urban villages in the city [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Outlook**: Both are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength for both is 0, showing a neutral view [2][6][7]. - **Fundamentals**: For rebar (RB2510), the closing price was 3,129 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton with a 0.55% increase. For hot - rolled coil (HC2510), the closing price was 3,385 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton with a 0.83% increase. There were changes in trading volume, position, and spot prices in different regions [7]. - **News**: On August 28, steel union weekly data showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand. In mid - August 2025, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data also had corresponding changes [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Outlook**: Affected by market information disturbances, they will experience wide - range fluctuations within the day. The trend strength for both is 0, indicating a neutral view [2][10]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts changed slightly. Spot prices of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia remained stable, while the price of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 30 yuan/ton. Various spreads also had corresponding changes [10]. - **News**: Multiple price quotes from the ferroalloy industry were released, and Ningbo Iron and Steel set a bid price for silicomanganese [11][13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Market Outlook**: Both are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength for both is 0, showing a neutral view [2][14]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the JM2601 coking coal futures contract was 1,175 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton with a 1.8% increase. The closing price of the J2601 coke futures contract was 1,672.5 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton with a 0.2% increase. Spot prices of some varieties remained unchanged, and basis and spread values changed [14]. - **News**: On August 27, the Shanghai Municipal People's Government Office issued an implementation opinion on accelerating the renovation of urban villages in the city [14]. Logs - **Market Outlook**: It will fluctuate repeatedly. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [2][16]. - **Fundamentals**: Different contract prices, trading volumes, and positions on the log futures market had various changes. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable [17]. - **News**: On August 27, the Shanghai Municipal People's Government Office issued an implementation opinion on accelerating the renovation of urban villages in the city [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil products from August 1 - 25, 2025, increased by 36.41% compared to the same period last month. The cool weather in the US Midwest will continue until next week, with several precipitation events expected, but dry conditions in some areas may lead to a decline in crop yields. The futures market had a net capital inflow of 12.44 billion yuan on August 27, 2025, with a net outflow in commodity futures and an inflow in stock index futures [1][5][7][23] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Overnight Market Quotes - The closing prices and percentage changes of various commodities such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, and US soybeans are presented. The exchange rates of the US dollar index and multiple currencies are also provided [1] 02 Spot Market Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal are given. CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans are also included [2] 03 Important Fundamental Information - Production Area Weather - The future weather outlook for US soybean - producing states from September 1 - 5 shows generally low temperatures and above - median precipitation. The cool weather in the US Midwest will continue until next week, with precipitation expected, but dry conditions in the south and east may cause a decline in crop yields [3][5] - International Supply and Demand - Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 25, 2025, increased by 36.41% compared to the same period last month. The Malaysian palm oil industry calls for the government to reinvest windfall profit tax revenue and adjust the tax threshold. Ghana plans to narrow the gap between palm oil production and consumption. Analysts predict US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales. Brazilian farmers are preparing for the 2025/26 planting season, and the soybean harvest in Goiás state in 2024/25 reached a record high. Low soybean meal prices have affected South American crushing margins. Canadian rapeseed crushing data for July 2025 are provided, and Australia's rapeseed production forecast is given. The Baltic Dry Index rose for the third consecutive day [7][9][10][11][12] - Domestic Supply and Demand - On August 27, 2025, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 6% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the operating rate of oil mills declined. The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased, while the average pork price decreased [15] 04 Macroeconomic News - International News - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 11.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 88.7%. US mortgage application and oil reserve data are provided. The EU plans to accelerate the legislative process to fully cancel tariffs on US industrial products [18] - Domestic News - On August 27, 2025, the US dollar/renminbi exchange rate was lowered. The central bank conducted 379.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan. In July, the operating income of large - scale industrial enterprises increased year - on - year, and the profit decline narrowed [20] 05 Capital Flows - On August 27, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 12.44 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 3.107 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net inflow of 15.546 billion yuan in stock index futures [23] 06 Arbitrage Tracking - Not mentioned in the provided content

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report focuses on the fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil markets. The appearance of new warehouse receipts in fuel oil has led to a bearish turn in the futures market. Low - sulfur fuel oil has reversed and declined, while the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has temporarily stabilized. The trend strength for both fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Changes**: - For fuel oil futures contracts, FU2510 closed at 2,880 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.93%, and its settlement price increased by 0.42%. FU2511 closed at 2,863 yuan/ton with a 0.42% increase, and its settlement price rose by 0.81%. - For low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts, LU2510 closed at 3,524 yuan/ton with a 0.06% decline, and its settlement price increased by 0.60%. LU2511 closed at 3,529 yuan/ton with a 0.60% increase, and its settlement price rose by 0.45% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - Trading volumes of all listed contracts (FU2510, FU2511, LU2510, LU2511) decreased compared to the previous day, with significant drops in some contracts. Open interests also decreased across the board [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: - The total fuel oil warehouse receipts in the market were 100,310, an increase of 26,600. The low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts were 11,110, with no change [1]. - **Spot Prices**: - High - sulfur (3.5%S) spot prices in most regions showed slight declines, while low - sulfur (0.5%S) spot prices in some regions increased slightly. For example, the Singapore MOPS high - sulfur price dropped by 0.41%, and the low - sulfur price increased by 0.04% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: - For contract spreads, the FU10 - 11 spread was 17 yuan/ton, and the LU10 - 11 spread was - 5 yuan/ton. The LU10 - FU10 spread was 644 yuan/ton. - For other spreads, such as the difference between futures and spot prices, the FU2510 - Singapore MOPS (3.5%S) spread decreased by 15.2 yuan/ton, and the LU2510 - Singapore MOPS (0.5%S) spread decreased by 3.4 yuan/ton. The Singapore MOPS (0.5%S - 3.5%S) spread increased by 1.9 dollars/ton [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil is - 1, indicating a bearish view. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish), with - 1 representing a relatively bearish sentiment [1].

Report Overview - Date: August 27, 2025 [1][4][7][11][15][17][20] - Source: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market trends of various commodities are mainly characterized by wide - range oscillations or repeated fluctuations. Specifically, iron ore and logs are expected to oscillate repeatedly, while rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, and coking coal are expected to have wide - range oscillations [2] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend**: Oscillate repeatedly [2][6] - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 776.5 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan or 1.33%. The previous day's position was 452,852 lots, down 11,978 lots. Spot prices of imported and domestic ores mostly declined. Some basis and spread values changed slightly [5] - **News**: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market", involving six adjustments such as reducing purchase restrictions, housing provident funds, housing credit, and property tax [5] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Trend**: Market sentiment is changeable, with wide - range oscillations [2][8] - **Fundamentals**: For RB2510, the previous day's closing price was 3,113 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan or 0.99%. For HC2510, it was 3,367 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan or 0.71%. Trading volume and positions decreased. Spot prices generally declined, and basis and spread values changed [8] - **News**: In mid - August 2025, key steel enterprises' production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel products increased compared to the previous period. Steel inventories increased. Other macro - related data were also reported [8][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coils [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend**: Wide - range oscillations [2][11] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts declined. Spot prices of ferrosilicon increased, while those of silicomanganese were stable. Basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads changed [11] - **News**: Iron alloy price information from different regions and steel mills' procurement prices were reported [12] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [14] Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend**: Wide - range oscillations [2][15] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 increased. Trading volume and positions increased. Spot prices of some coking coals changed, and coke prices were stable. Basis and spread values changed significantly [15] - **News**: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market" [15] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [16] Logs - **Trend**: Oscillate repeatedly [2][17] - **Fundamentals**: Futures closing prices of different contracts showed slight changes, with varying trading volumes and positions. Spot prices of most log varieties were stable, and some basis and spread values changed [18] - **News**: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market" [20] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [20]

Group 1: Report Overview - Industry: Asphalt [1] - Date: August 27, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - BU2510 opened at 3517 yuan/ton, closed at 3523 yuan/ton, with a high of 3540 yuan/ton, a low of 3512 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.54%, and a trading volume of 16.04 million lots. BU2511 opened at 3490 yuan/ton, closed at 3497 yuan/ton, with a high of 3510 yuan/ton, a low of 3483 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.78%, and a trading volume of 6.6 million lots [6] - Spot prices in North China, Shandong, South China, and Sichuan-Chongqing markets increased, while prices in other regions were generally stable. The significant increase in crude oil prices at the close yesterday boosted the sentiment of the asphalt spot market [6] - Hebei Xinhai plans to increase asphalt production at the end of the month, but Zhenhai Refining & Chemical may suspend asphalt production temporarily. Some local refineries in Shandong, such as Shengxing Petrochemical, may switch to producing residual oil. It is expected that the asphalt plant operating rate will decline [6] - Demand has not been significantly boosted. Rigid demand is restricted by funds and weather, market sentiment is pessimistic, and speculative demand is released cautiously [6] - Overall, the asphalt market continues to have weak supply and demand with few highlights. The unilateral price mainly follows the upward movement of oil prices. As oil prices stop falling and rebound, asphalt crack spread long positions should temporarily take profits and wait and see [6] Group 3: Industry News - In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price of 70 A-grade asphalt is 3490 - 3800 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. International oil prices closed higher, asphalt futures fluctuated higher during the session, and some local refineries in Shandong switched to producing residual oil, leading to a decrease in local asphalt supply. Local refineries and traders pushed up asphalt prices, driving up the market price [7] - In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price of 70 A-grade asphalt is 3490 - 3510 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The sales of major refineries are good, and after the futures price rose, spot-futures traders have no low-price contracts for sale, increasing the sentiment of traders to push up prices and driving up the market price [7] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including asphalt daily operating rate (%), Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit (yuan/ton), asphalt crack spread (yuan/ton), asphalt social inventory (tons), Shandong asphalt spot price (yuan/ton), Shandong asphalt basis (yuan/ton), asphalt manufacturer inventory (10,000 tons), and asphalt warehouse receipts (tons), all sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [8][13][16]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing price increase trend in the coking coal market is highlighted, with the eighth round of price hikes for coke imminent, raising questions about whether coking coal will trigger a new round of price increases and the potential for short sellers to find an "escape" [1] Group 1 - The eighth round of price increases for coke is approaching, indicating a sustained upward trend in prices [1] - Market attention is focused on whether coking coal will ignite a new wave of price increases [1] - There is concern regarding the potential for short sellers to find opportunities to exit their positions [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market sentiment of rebar and hot-rolled coil is volatile, with wide fluctuations [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3,138 yuan/ton and 3,389 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 31 yuan/ton, and daily increase rates of 0.71% and 0.92% respectively. The trading volumes were 1,200,313 lots (RB2510) and 508,110 lots (HC2510), and the open interests were 1,347,830 lots (RB2510) and 938,245 lots (HC2510), with changes of -63,773 lots and -59,902 lots respectively [3]. - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in various regions increased to varying degrees, with the largest increase of 30 yuan/ton. The price of Tangshan billet was 3,050 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [3]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of RB2510 and HC2510 increased by 11 yuan/ton and 2 yuan/ton respectively. The spreads of RB2510 - RB2601 and HC2601 - RB2601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton and 4 yuan/ton respectively, while the spreads of HC2510 - HC2601, HC2510 - RB2510 increased by 3 yuan/ton and 9 yuan/ton respectively. The spot coil - rebar spread decreased by 1 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Steel Union Weekly Data (August 21)**: Rebar production decreased by 5.8 tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 9.65 tons, and the total production of five major steel products increased by 6.43 tons. Rebar inventory increased by 19.85 tons, hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 3.97 tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products increased by 25.07 tons. Rebar apparent demand increased by 4.86 tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand increased by 6.52 tons, and the total apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 21.97 tons [4]. - **Mid - August 2025 Data of Key Steel Enterprises**: The average daily production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel products increased by 2.0%, 0.5%, and 2.2% respectively compared with the previous period. The steel inventory of key enterprises increased by 4.0% compared with the previous ten - day period, by 26.7% compared with the beginning of the year, by 0.1% compared with the same ten - day period of last month, decreased by 4.7% compared with the same ten - day period of last year, and decreased by 5.8% compared with the same ten - day period of the year before last [4][5]. - **Other Data**: The Manufacturing Supply Index (MMSI) in July was 146.13, a month - on - month decrease of 4.83%. From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13,583.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1% [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For palm oil, there is no new fundamental driver, and investors are advised to wait for a price pullback to initiate long positions [1]. - For soybean oil, the trading sentiment related to the potential soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has eased, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a high - level range [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 9,488 yuan/ton with a - 0.23% change; (night session) 9,542 yuan/ton with a 0.57% change. Trading volume was 36,525 lots, a decrease of 12,233 lots, and open interest was 42,108 lots, a decrease of 13,283 lots [1]. - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 8,536 yuan/ton with a 0.52% change; (night session) 8,514 yuan/ton with a - 0.26% change. Trading volume was 35,235 lots, an increase of 1,154 lots, and open interest was 52,615 lots, a decrease of 18,859 lots [1]. - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 9,998 yuan/ton with a 0.03% change; (night session) 9,918 yuan/ton with a - 0.80% change. Trading volume was 14,288 lots, a decrease of 1,353 lots, and open interest was 24,389 lots, a decrease of 4,695 lots [1]. - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price was 4,493 ringgit/ton with a - 0.84% change; (night session) 4,482 ringgit/ton with a - 0.22% change [1]. - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price was 54.84 cents/pound with a - 0.87% change [1]. - **Spot Data**: - 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong: Spot price was 9,620 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 80 yuan/ton [1]. - First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong: Spot price was 8,720 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 50 yuan/ton [1]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi: Spot price was 9,910 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 30 yuan/ton [1]. - Malaysian palm oil FOB offshore price (continuous contract): Spot price was 1,115 dollars/ton, with a price increase of 15 dollars/ton [1]. - **Basis Data**: - Palm oil in Guangdong: Basis was 132 yuan/ton [1]. - Soybean oil in Guangdong: Basis was 184 yuan/ton [1]. - Rapeseed oil in Guangxi: Basis was - 88 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Data**: - Rapeseed - palm oil futures主力 spread: 309 yuan/ton, compared to 298 yuan/ton two days ago [1]. - Soybean - palm oil futures主力 spread: - 1,094 yuan/ton, compared to - 1,134 yuan/ton two days ago [1]. - Palm oil 9 - 1 spread: - 94 yuan/ton, compared to - 82 yuan/ton two days ago [1]. - Soybean oil 9 - 1 spread: 48 yuan/ton, compared to 34 yuan/ton two days ago [1]. - Rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread: 107 yuan/ton, compared to 105 yuan/ton two days ago [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25, 2025, were 1,141,661 tons, a 10.9% increase compared to the same period last month [2]. - Indonesia urged the EU to immediately cancel the anti - subsidy tax on imported biodiesel after the WTO supported several key claims in Indonesia's complaint. Indonesia and the EU are closer to signing a free - trade agreement after a political agreement in July [4]. - USDA's crop growth report showed that as of August 24, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 69%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, and the pod - setting rate was 89% [4]. - Secex data indicated that Brazil exported 7,257,837.70 tons of soybeans in the first four weeks of August, with an average daily export volume of 453,614.86 tons, a 24% increase compared to the average daily export volume in August last year [4]. - Canada's rapeseed exports in the week ending August 17 decreased by 64.34% to 90,800 tons. From August 1 to August 17, 2025, exports were 355,900 tons, a 46.16% decrease compared to the same period last year. As of August 17, the commercial inventory was 793,400 tons [5]. - In July 2025, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume was 968,515 tons, a 13.13% increase from the previous month and a 3.65% decrease from the same period last year. The rapeseed oil production was 408,898 tons, a 12.15% increase from the previous month and a 5.89% decrease from the same period last year. The rapeseed meal production was 571,012 tons, a 12.62% increase from the previous month and a 1.42% decrease from the same period last year [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity was 0, and soybean oil trend intensity was also 0, indicating a neutral outlook [6].