Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily data report on synthetic rubber, released by the Guomao Futures Research Institute on October 17, 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Market Quotes Summary Futures Market - The closing price of BR2511.SHF was 10,895 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan or 2.20% [3] - The settlement price was 11,005 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan or 1.85% [3] - The trading volume was 18,411 lots, with a 0.00% change, and the position was 76,904 lots, up 27.63% [3] Spot Market - Sinopec Chemical Sales' high - cis butadiene rubber price decreased by 300 yuan/ton this cycle, and PetroChina's main sales companies' price decreased by 500 yuan/ton [3] - As of October 16, 2025, Sinopec Chemical Sales' BR9000 ex - factory price was 11,200 yuan/ton, and PetroChina's main sales companies' BR9000 ex - factory price was 11,000 - 11,000 yuan/ton [3] Price Differences - The month - to - month spread between the second and first contracts was 25 yuan/ton, up 150.00% [3] - The spread between BR and RU was 5.88% [3] - The spread between BR and NR was 11.94% [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Market Trends - The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market continued to decline and then rebounded rapidly this cycle. The spot price ranged from 10,600 to 11,400 yuan/ton [3] - At the end of the cycle, under the influence of factors such as increased domestic maintenance losses in October - December and the US interest rate cut, the futures and spot prices of butadiene rubber rebounded rapidly [3] Supply and Demand - The external sales resources of raw materials were sufficient this cycle, but the spot negotiation focus gradually stopped falling, and the weak cost situation of butadiene rubber was slightly alleviated [3] - Due to the successive maintenance of butadiene rubber plants of Qilu Petrochemical, Yangzi Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical, Sinopec's short - and medium - term circulation resources are expected to decrease significantly [3] - There is marginal production profit in private butadiene rubber, leading to an increase in supply, and the price of private resources in the spot market has been lower than that of the two major oil companies [3] - Downstream procurement continued to suppress prices, causing the spot negotiation focus to decline continuously [3] Group 4: Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: The BR market is expected to consolidate [3] - Arbitrage: After the spread widens again, consider going long on BR and short on RU or NR [3]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 17 日 鸡蛋：弱势震荡 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 鸡蛋基本面数据 | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 （%） | 成交变动 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2511 | 2,818 | -1.05 | -27,338 | -8,589 | | | 鸡蛋2601 | 3,175 | -1.06 | -4,568 | 2,790 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | 差 价 | 鸡蛋11-12价差 | | -159 | | -164 | | | 鸡蛋11-1价差 | | -357 | | -349 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 2.90 | | 2.80 | | | 河北现货价格 | | 2.53 | | 2.42 | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 2.90 | | 2.80 | | | 湖北现货价格 | | 3.00 | | 2.93 | | | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Both short - fiber and bottle - chip markets are supported by trading volume and are in a low - level oscillation with limited downside space [1]. - The trend strength of short - fiber and bottle - chip on the reporting day's daytime session of the main contract futures price fluctuation is neutral, with a value of 0 [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Short - fiber**: - Futures prices of short - fiber 2511, 2512, and 2601 increased by 44, 42, and 24 respectively compared to the previous day. PF11 - 12 increased by 2, PF12 - 01 increased by 18, and the main contract basis decreased by 42. - The main contract's open interest increased by 156,786 to 276,286, and the trading volume increased by 140,234 to 187,340. The production - sales ratio increased by 33% to 79%. The spot price in East China remained unchanged at 6,305 [1]. - **Bottle - chip**: - Futures prices of bottle - chip 2511, 2512, and 2601 increased by 34, 36, and 44 respectively compared to the previous day. PR11 - 12 decreased by 2, PR12 - 01 decreased by 8, and the main contract basis decreased by 16. - The main contract's open interest increased by 11,316 to 35,207, and the trading volume increased by 19,029 to 42,764. The spot price in East China increased by 20 to 5,650, and in South China increased by 30 to 5,680 [1]. Spot News - **Short - fiber**: Futures prices oscillated upwards. Some trade discounts were reduced, and many traders held back sales due to low inventory. Factory quotes remained stable, and sales improved with an average production - sales ratio of 79% by 3:00 pm. Downstream pure - polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn quotes remained stable, but sales were average [1]. - **Bottle - chip**: Upstream raw material futures prices rose, and some polyester bottle - chip factories raised prices by 20 - 50 yuan. Market trading was fair, and some factories raised quotes after increased trading volume in the afternoon. Orders from October to December were mainly traded at 5,600 - 5,750 yuan/ton ex - factory, with some trade prices slightly lower at 5,560 - 5,590 yuan/ton ex - factory and slightly higher at 5,730 - 5,750 yuan/ton ex - factory [2].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the increase in futures prices for both coke and coking coal, with coke futures rising by 2.27% to 1686 RMB/ton and coking coal futures increasing by 2.28% to 1188 RMB/ton [1] Group 2 - The rise in coke futures indicates a strengthening demand in the steel production sector, as coke is a key ingredient in the steel-making process [1] - The increase in coking coal prices suggests potential supply constraints or increased demand, which could impact the overall cost structure for companies in the steel and coal industries [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Fuel oil had a slight rebound in the night session, but the short - term weakness persists. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to continue to be weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil in the short term, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market has narrowed again [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Changes**: - For FU2511, the closing price was 2,739 yuan/ton, down 0.40%, and the settlement price was 2,725 yuan/ton, down 1.38%. - For FU2512, the closing price was 2,697 yuan/ton, down 1.38%, and the settlement price was 2,685 yuan/ton, down 1.76%. - For LU2511, the closing price was 3,140 yuan/ton, down 1.60%, and the settlement price was 3,141 yuan/ton, down 1.97%. - For LU2512, the closing price was 3,155 yuan/ton, down 1.97%, and the settlement price was 3,158 yuan/ton, down 1.80% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - The trading volume of FU2511 was 2,003 lots, a decrease of 2,486 lots, and the open interest was 12,454 lots, an increase of 212 lots. - The trading volume of FU2512 was 9,775 lots, a decrease of 1,369 lots, and the open interest was 12,463 lots, a decrease of 409 lots. - The trading volume of LU2511 was 8,510 lots, an increase of 934 lots, and the open interest was 13,398 lots, a decrease of 2,971 lots. - The trading volume of LU2512 was 87,532 lots, an increase of 11,093 lots, and the open interest was 65,740 lots, an increase of 1,470 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total market warehouse receipts for fuel oil were 45,800, with no change, and for low - sulfur fuel oil were 13,080, with no change [1]. - **Spot Prices**: - In Singapore FOB, the price of high - sulfur fuel oil (3.5%S) was 368.6 dollars/ton, up 1.46%, and low - sulfur fuel oil (0.5%S) was 432.1 dollars/ton, down 0.06%. - In Singapore Bunker, high - sulfur was 380.0 dollars/ton, up 1.33%, and low - sulfur was 446.0 dollars/ton, up 0.45%. Similar price changes were shown in other regions such as Fujeirah, Zhoushan, Shanghai, Tokyo, and South Korea [1]. - **Price Spreads**: - The FU11 - 12 spread was 42 yuan/ton, and the settlement spread was 40 yuan/ton, with a difference of - 2 yuan/ton. - The LU11 - 12 spread was - 15 yuan/ton, and the settlement spread was - 17 yuan/ton, with a difference of - 2 yuan/ton. - The LU11 - FU11 spread was 401 yuan/ton, and the settlement spread was 416 yuan/ton, with a difference of 15 yuan/ton. - The FU2510 - Singapore MOPS (3.5%S) spread decreased by 48.8 yuan/ton, the LU2510 - Singapore MOPS (0.5%S) spread decreased by 49.1 yuan/ton, and the Singapore MOPS (0.5%S - 3.5%S) spread decreased by 5.6 dollars/ton [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend intensity being [- 2,2] where - 2 is most bearish and 2 is most bullish [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report views the urea market as oscillating, with macro and cost factors being positive, while weak domestic demand is negative. The current supply - demand situation in the domestic market remains loose, and the recent market trend is still downward [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cost - The prices of coking coal, anthracite small pieces, and natural gas on October 14, 2025, remained unchanged from the previous day at $465.00, $920.00, and $3680.00 respectively [1] Price - On October 14, 2025, prices in regions like Henan, Hebei, Anhui, Shandong, and Shanxi increased by $30.00, $10.00, $10.00, $30.00, and $10.00 respectively compared to the previous day. The FOB prices in China and the Middle East, as well as CFR prices in Southeast Asia and Brazil, remained unchanged [1] Inventory - On October 14, 2025, factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream sample inventory remained unchanged at 144.39, 41.50, and 4050.00 respectively [1] Supply - On October 14, 2025, the 5 - day output, overall开工率, coal - based开工率, and gas - based开工率 remained unchanged. The 5 - day output was 199400.00, the overall开工率 was 85.24, the coal - based开工率 was 89.41, and the gas - based开工率 was 73.39 [1] Demand - On October 14, 2025, the开工 rates of compound fertilizer, melamine, and formaldehyde remained unchanged at 25.50, 65.47, and 34.49 respectively [1] Profit - On October 14, 2025, the profits of fixed - bed, water - coal slurry, and natural gas remained unchanged at - 327.00, 142.00, and - 225.00 respectively. The price of compound fertilizer decreased by $50.00 to $2050.00 [1] Related Products - On October 14, 2025, the prices of melamine and compound fertilizer remained unchanged at $5050.00 and $2450.00 respectively. The price of methanol increased by $10.00 to $2170.00 [1] Futures - On October 14, 2025, the settlement price decreased by $3.00 to $1602.00, the basis increased by $33.00 to - 57.00, the price change rate decreased by 0.44 to - 0.19, the trading volume decreased by 49382.00 to 614111.00, the open interest decreased by 4162.00 to 321992.00, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 347.00 to 6570.00 [1]

#行情 现货黄金突破4200美元/盎司，涨幅1.4%。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):#行情 纽约黄金期货突破4200美元/盎司。 ...

Report Summary for Polyolefins 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The post - holiday inventory pressure of polyolefins remains significant. The supply side has long - term supply pressure, and the demand side lacks highlights. The upside space of the 01 contract is limited. PE's supply pressure is prominent due to increased domestic production and overseas destocking. PP's valuation has been repaired, and attention should be paid to the restart rhythm of devices and new device production pressure in October [2]. 3. Key Points from Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On October 14, compared with the 13th, L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 futures prices all declined, with L2601 down 0.93%, L2509 down 1.05%, PP2601 down 1.36%, and PP2509 down 0.98%. The spread between L2509 - 2601 decreased by 10.23%, while the spread between PP2509 - 2601 increased by 47.17%. Spot prices of some products also changed, such as the 0.31% increase in East China PP fiber spot and the 0.86% decrease in North China LDPE film material spot [2]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 27.67% to 48.9 (unit not clearly stated), and social inventory increased by 4.02% to 54.6 million tons. PP enterprise inventory increased by 30.96% to 68.1 million tons, and trader inventory increased by 39.48% to 26.1 (unit not clearly stated) [2]. - **Operating Rate**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.26% to 83.9%, and downstream weighted operating rate increased by 0.52% to 44.4%. PP device operating rate increased by 1.5% to 77.7%, and powder operating rate increased by 5.4% to 39.3% [2]. Report Summary for Benzene - Styrene 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply of pure benzene is expected to be loose in October, and the price driver is weak. The supply of styrene is expected to remain high, and the price is still under pressure. For pure benzene, BZ2603 should follow the fluctuations of styrene and oil prices. For styrene, the rebound of EB11 price should be treated as short - selling [5]. 3. Key Points from Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On October 14, compared with the 13th, the prices of most products in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain declined. For example, Brent crude oil (November) decreased by 1.5%, and CFR China benzene decreased by 2.1%. The EB cash flow (non - integrated) decreased by 30.0% [5]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 1.1% to 9.00 million tons, and styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 2.7% to 19.65 million tons [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate increased by 1.4% to 80.1%, and the domestic styrene operating rate decreased by 0.1% to 73.2% [5]. Report Summary for Methanol 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The methanol market has a mixed situation of long and short factors. The 01 contract fluctuates between real - time pressure and future expectations. Attention should be paid to the supply reduction expectation caused by overseas gas restrictions in mid - October, as well as the operation of overseas devices and the situation of Iranian ship sanctions [6]. 3. Key Points from Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On October 14, compared with the 13th, MA2601 decreased by 2.90%, and MA2605 decreased by 2.29%. The MA15 spread increased by 116.67%, and the Taicang basis decreased by 72.22% [6]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 6.08% to 33.94 (unit not clearly stated), port inventory increased by 3.42% to 154.3 million tons, and social inventory increased by 3.89% to 188.3 (unit not clearly stated) [6]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 1.01% to 78%, and the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate increased by 4.63% to 86.28% [6]. Report Summary for Polyester Industry Chain 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the polyester industry chain, PX is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter, and short - term PX is in weak shock. Ethylene glycol is expected to accumulate inventory, and the price is weak. Short - fiber prices are under pressure, and bottle chips are likely to enter the seasonal inventory accumulation channel [8]. 3. Key Points from Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On October 14, compared with the 13th, the prices of most products in the polyester industry chain declined. For example, Brent crude oil (December) decreased by 1.5%, and POY150/48 price decreased by 0.4% [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The coal - based MEG operating rate increased from 74.4% to 78.8%, and the Asian PX operating rate increased by 2.4% to 79.9% [8]. - **Inventory and Forecast**: MEG port inventory increased by 6.7% to 54.1 million tons, and the expected arrival of MEG increased by 27.5% to 10.2 million tons [8]. Report Summary for PVC and Caustic Soda 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The price of caustic soda is expected to be weak in the short - term but has long - term demand support. PVC production pressure has slightly eased, but there is still inventory accumulation pressure, and the short - term disk is expected to continue to be under pressure [9]. 3. Key Points from Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On October 14, compared with the 13th, the prices of some PVC and caustic soda products declined. For example, the East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price decreased by 0.7%, and the 50% liquid caustic soda converted price in Shandong decreased by 0.8% [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 1.6% to 88.2%, and the PVC total operating rate increased by 6.2% to 80.8%. The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC decreased, such as the 18.8% decrease in the开工 rate of Longzhong sample profiles [9]. - **Inventory**: The PVC upstream factory inventory increased by 20.5% to 38.4 million tons, and the total PVC social inventory increased by 4.2% to 55.7 million tons [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not clearly defined [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a somewhat bearish trend with limited trading operability) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a somewhat bearish trend with limited trading operability) [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a somewhat bearish trend with limited trading operability) [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a somewhat bearish trend with limited trading operability) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor trading operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - PX: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor trading operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor trading operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor trading operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a somewhat bearish trend with limited trading operability) [1] Report's Core View The chemical industry is generally weak. Various chemical products are facing different challenges such as increased supply pressure, weak demand, and price declines. Each product's market situation is affected by factors like production capacity changes, downstream demand, and cost pressures [2][3][5][6][7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures prices are down. Supply pressure has increased after some major plants in Shandong resumed production, and downstream demand has not improved significantly [2]. - Plastic and polypropylene futures prices are under pressure. New polyethylene plants are planned to start production, and downstream demand for both is weak [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices continue to decline, and the market is affected by high imports and expected demand decline [3]. - Styrene futures prices are down, and downstream purchasing sentiment is not positive [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA prices are falling. PTA supply is expected to increase, and terminal demand is expected to weaken [5]. - Ethylene glycol prices are at the bottom of the range, and there is a supply - contraction expectation due to Sino - US trade tensions [5]. - Short fiber prices are down, but the spot is firm due to limited new capacity and improved downstream demand [5]. - Bottle chip production is increasing inventory, and demand is expected to weaken after the holiday [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures are volatile. The high - import and high - inventory situation has been disrupted, and further changes need to be monitored [6]. - Urea supply is high, and demand is weak. The domestic supply - demand pattern is loose, and the market is likely to remain weak [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices are likely to be weak. New production capacity is increasing supply, and trade frictions may affect exports [7]. - Caustic soda futures prices are weak. There is a regional supply difference, and the decline in futures prices is expected to be limited [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices are weak. Supply is high, and demand growth is limited [8]. - Glass prices are down. Inventory pressure is high, and the market is in a weak situation [8].

Core Viewpoint - The main point of the article is that the Shanghai gold futures main contract has seen a significant increase, with an intraday rise of 4%, reaching a new high [1]. Group 1 - The Shanghai gold futures main contract has expanded its intraday gains to 4% [1].