Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2605 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. Attention should be paid to the support at MA10. The industrial contradiction is accumulating, and steel prices are under pressure [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak, with inventory increasing. The supply is rising and there is still room for growth, while the demand is weak, and the fundamental contradiction is accumulating, causing the steel price to be under pressure. It is expected to continue the low - level volatile trend [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are "volatile", "volatile", and "weakly volatile" respectively. The reference view is to pay attention to the MA10 support, and the core logic is that the industrial contradiction is accumulating and steel prices are under pressure [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. Inventory starts to increase, and the production of construction steel mills is active, with supply continuing to rise and still having room for growth. The demand is weak, with high - frequency demand indicators at a low level and remaining at the lowest in the same period in recent years. The downstream industry has not improved, so the subsequent demand will continue the seasonal weakness, dragging down the steel price. The steel price is under pressure, and it is expected to continue the low - level volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings and Core Views Investment Ratings - **Positive Trends**: PX, MEG, synthetic rubber, methanol, urea, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil [10][11][16][39][44][69] - **Neutral Trends**: Rubber, LLDPE, PP, paper pulp, glass, benzene, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, short - fiber, bottle - chip, pure benzene [13][19][22][30][35][48][52][57][58][87][95] - **Negative Trends**: Caustic soda, PVC, container shipping index (European line), offset printing paper [25][66][71][90] Core Views - The report analyzes the fundamentals of various energy and chemical futures, including price changes, supply - demand relationships, and market news, and provides investment suggestions based on trend strength and market conditions [1][2] 2. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Cost - supported, supply is loose, and downstream demand is expected to decline. Suggest long PX short PTA and long SC short PX hedging [6][10] - **PTA**: Cost - supported, high processing fees, and polyester production cuts need to be observed. Suggest long SC short PTA [10][11] - **MEG**: Short - term rebound, pay attention to the implementation of spring maintenance of coal - chemical ethylene glycol plants [11] Rubber - Wide - range oscillation, with inventory increasing in Qingdao and mixed performance in the tire industry [13][14][15] Synthetic Rubber - The price center moves up, affected by geopolitical conflicts and the supply - demand of butadiene [16][18] LLDPE - Futures and spot prices resonate, with low standard product production. There are still concerns about supply - demand pressure in the medium term [19][20] PP - Cost - supported by downstream export rush, but overall fundamentals are weak at the end of the year [22][23] Caustic Soda - Weak oscillation, facing problems of high production, high inventory, and weak demand [25][27] Paper Pulp - Oscillation, with weak downstream demand and price adjustment of broad - leaf pulp [30][33][34] Glass - The original sheet price is stable, and the market trading atmosphere is average [35][36] Methanol - Oscillation with support, affected by geopolitical conflicts and inventory expectations [39][42] Urea - Medium - term upward oscillation, with inventory reduction and improved fundamentals [44][46][47] Benzene, Styrene - Short - term oscillation, with high valuation and concerns about supply - demand in the medium term [48][49][50] Soda Ash - The spot market changes little, and the demand support is gradually weakening [52][54] LPG, Propylene - LPG: Short - term supply is tight, affected by geopolitical factors. Propylene: Spot supply - demand tightens, with a strong trend [57][58] PVC - Weak oscillation, with high production, high inventory, and weak demand [66][67] Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil: Sharp rise, short - term easy to rise and hard to fall. Low - sulfur fuel oil: Follow the rise, with a slight contraction in the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels [69] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Weak operation, affected by geopolitical situations and supply - demand in the shipping market [71][82][83] Short - Fiber, Bottle - Chip - Both are oscillating strongly. For short - fiber, hold long TA short PF; for bottle - chip, hold long - short spread arbitrage [87][88] Offset Printing Paper - Hold short positions, with stable prices and weak demand in the market [90][91][93] Pure Benzene - Short - term oscillation, with inventory accumulation and price adjustment [95][96]

Core Viewpoint - The main point of the article is that the Shanghai tin futures main contract has surged by 10% [1] Group 1 - The significant increase in the Shanghai tin futures indicates a strong market demand or potential supply constraints [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On January 13, equity index futures declined while CGB futures advanced. Most commodities moved lower, with metal futures seeing a divergent performance [2][10][12]. - The MIIT emphasized at its meeting to conscientiously resist internal competition and promote win - win outcomes [1][3][35]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On January 13, in equity index futures, IM dropped 1.8% and IC dropped 1.2%; in CGB futures, TL rose 0.3% and T rose 0.1%. Among commodity futures, the top three gainers were Lithium Carbonate (up 7.4% with open interest decreasing 9.2% month - on - month), Silver (up 5.9% with open interest increasing 2.7% month - on - month), and Tin (up 4.1% with open interest falling 15.4% month - on - month). The top three decliners were SCFIS (Europe) (down 5.4% with open interest increasing 4.5% month - on - month), Palladium (down 5.2% with open interest decreasing 0.8% month - on - month), and Poly - Silicon (down 4.4% with open interest remaining unchanged) [10][11][12]. 1.2 Daily Rose - **Benzene**: On January 13, it rose 0.9% to 5,584 yuan per ton. Recent price increases were driven by downstream styrene export deals, firm US - denominated prices and high US - South Korea price spread, geopolitical tensions, and improved macro sentiment. However, the market has weak fundamentals, high inventory, and oversupply, limiting valuation recovery [16][17][19]. - **Ethenylbenzene**: On January 13, it rose 0.3% to 7,028 yuan per ton. The recent strength was due to robust exports, port destocking and tight liquidity, and firm macro sentiment and crude prices. The 1 - month stockbuild expectation has reversed, but there could be corrections if there are unforeseen supply increases or liquidity easing [24][25][26]. 1.3 Daily Dropped - **Poly - Silicon**: On January 13, it fell 4.4% to 49,005 yuan per ton. On the supply side, northern furnace operations changed little, and southwest operations were at a low ebb. On the demand side, it was in the dry season. The revocation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products might marginally lift polysilicon operating rates in Q1. Overall, industrial silicon remains in a stock - build - up pattern [29][30][32]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The MIIT held a manufacturing enterprise symposium on January 13, emphasizing that entrepreneurs should focus on main businesses, resist cut - throat competition, and promote win - win outcomes. Also, the G7 finance ministers' plan to reduce rare - earth imports from China was responded to by China's Foreign Ministry, stating China's stance on maintaining global critical mineral supply chain stability [35][36][37]. 2.2 Industry News - CME Group notified on January 12 that it will adjust precious metals margin requirements after the close on January 13, based on a routine assessment of market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage [38][39]

人民财讯1月13日电，沪银期货主力合约大涨5%，报22131元/千克。 ...

光大期货软商品日报（2026 年 1 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一，ICE 美棉上涨 0.82%，报收 64.94 美分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比下降 0.75%， | 震荡 | | | 报收 14625 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 31040 手至 81.79 万手，棉花 3128B 现 | | | | 货价格指数 15365 元/吨，较前一日下降 145 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期海外地缘 | | | | 扰动较多，美联储 1 月降息概率仍有摇摆，美元指数在 98-99 区间震荡，基本面 | | | | 变化有限，美棉震荡为主。国内市场方面，郑棉持续减仓下行，市场分歧加剧， | | | 棉花 | 基本面有了一些改变。受原料成本增加影响，纺织企业生产利润压缩，数据显示 | | | | 纺织企业开机率已经有一定程度下降。库存方面，本年度纺企补库动作提前，TTEB | | | | 数据显示，纺企原料库存可用天数约 31.5 天，原料库存相对充裕，棉花价格处于 | | | | 相对高位情况下，纺企采购观望情绪渐浓。综合来看，短期 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that the kinetic energy of US soybeans is limited, and the soybean oil market will mainly operate within a certain range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures are presented. For example, the closing price of palm oil (day session) is 8,724 yuan/ton with a 0.48% increase, and the closing price of soybean oil (day session) is 7,994 yuan/ton with no change [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open - interest changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures are provided. For instance, the trading volume of palm oil futures is 512,074 lots, with an increase of 145,968 lots [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of palm oil (24 - degree in Guangdong), first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong, and fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi, along with their price changes, are given. For example, the spot price of palm oil in Guangdong is 8,650 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions, as well as various spreads such as the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures, are presented [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: From January 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 17.65% compared to the same period last month. The yield decreased by 20.49% during this period, and the inventory in December 2025 increased by 7.58% month - on - month [3][5]. - **Global Soybeans**: In the 2025/26 season, global soybean production increased by 3.1 million tons to 425.7 million tons. As of December 1, 2025, the total US soybean inventory was 3.29 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 6% [5]. - **US Soybean and Soybean Oil**: The 2025/2026 US soybean planting area is expected to increase by 100,000 acres, and the soybean production is expected to increase by 9 million bushels. The US soybean oil production is expected to decrease by 210 million pounds, and the ending inventory is expected to increase by 26 million pounds [6][7]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: As of last Thursday, the harvesting rate of Brazilian 2025/26 soybeans was 0.6%, compared to 0.3% in the same period last year [8]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 1 [9].

2026年01月13日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：报告利空落地，原油反弹推涨油脂 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆动能有限，单边区间为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：USDA报告偏空，或跟随美豆回调 | 4 | | 豆一：USDA报告影响，或调整震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 7 | | 棉花：延续调整态势20260113 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：现货盈利，远月情绪转弱 | 10 | | 生猪：需求存负反馈，供应预期增量 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 13 日 棕榈油：报告利空落地，原油反弹推涨油脂 豆油：美豆动能有限，单边区间为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2026年1月13日，早盘开盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一，碳酸锂涨超8%，沪银涨超6%，沪锡涨超 4%，PVC、棕榈油、沪金涨超1%。跌幅方面，多晶硅、钯跌超3%，烧碱跌超2%，铂跌近2%。 | 序号 | 合打名称 | 域新 | 现于 | 25-17 | 三价 | 家(四) + | 天堂 | 本書 | 成交量 | 图肤 | 持创量 | 日增仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 残酷播 2602 M | 165160 | 202 | 165000 | 165160 | 6.27% | 240 | ব | 38812 9740 | | 499053 | -7649 | | 2 | 2月17日2604 M | 21013 | 73 | 21013 | 21018 | 5.94% | 13 | 2 | 724474 | 1179 | 318747 | -6982 | | 3 | 沪铝2602 n | 00Z08E ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton remain strong due to supportive market bullish factors, such as the confirmed reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang, fast cotton sales progress, improved Sino - US relations, and expansion capacity expectations of Xinjiang textile mills. However, the cotton price has significantly corrected recently, and it's necessary to observe if it can break through the 20 - day line. For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for the short - term trends of US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton, including unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options [6][7][9] - The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is light, with prices stable to slightly rising. The acceptance of new price increases by downstream is poor. The shipment of all - cotton plain cloth is still divided, with clothing fabric mills cautious and home textile fabric mills having a slightly better attitude. Attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream demand [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Disk**: For cotton futures contracts (CF01, CF05, CF09), the closing prices decreased, with the decline ranging from 20 to 65. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of CF05 increased by 106,794, while its open interest decreased by 31,033. For cotton yarn futures contracts (CY01, CY05, CY09), the closing prices mostly decreased, and trading volume and open interest also had various changes [2] - **Spot Prices**: The price of CCIndex3128B decreased by 135 to 15,857 yuan/ton, while the price of CY IndexC32S remained unchanged at 21,300 yuan/ton. Other spot prices such as Cot A, FC Index, etc., also had corresponding changes [2] - **Price Spreads**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was 85 with a 30 increase; in cotton yarn inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was - 425 with a 110 increase. In cross - variety spreads, CY01 - CF01 was 5515 with a 20 increase. The internal - external price spreads of cotton and cotton yarn also changed [2] 3.2 Market News and Views 3.2.1 Cotton Market News - As of January 9, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.7756 million tons, accounting for 89.2% of the estimated US cotton production in the 2025/26 season, 9% slower than the same period last year. The inspection progress of upland cotton was 89.37%, and that of Pima cotton was 88.6%. The quarterly deliverable ratio was 82.3%, 1.4 percentage points higher year - on - year. It is expected that the inspection speed will accelerate later [4] - As of January 2, the number of un - priced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2603 contract decreased by 1,977 to 18,662, a 40,000 - ton decrease from last week. The total number of un - priced contracts of sellers in the 25/26 season decreased by 2,068 to 36,195, equivalent to 820,000 tons, a 50,000 - ton decrease from last week [5] - On January 12, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang cotton was 0.1726 yuan/ton·km, a 3.52% decrease from the previous day. It is expected that the freight index will show a narrow - range fluctuation in the short term [5] 3.2.2 Trading Logic - The rumored reduction in cotton production has been gradually confirmed. The cotton sales progress is fast, and factors such as improved Sino - US relations and the expansion capacity of Xinjiang textile mills support the upward movement of fundamentals. The upward trend of the disk is obvious, with some ginning mills reluctant to sell and downstream textile mills starting to price [6] 3.2.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: It is expected that the short - term trend of US cotton will mostly be range - bound. For Zhengzhou cotton, the positions of the recent main contracts have decreased, and the price has dropped significantly. It is recommended to wait and see [7] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8] - **Options**: Wait and see [9] 3.2.4 Cotton Yarn Industry News - The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is light, with prices stable to slightly rising. The acceptance of new price increases by downstream is poor, but there is a slight improvement in downstream orders in some markets. Attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream demand [9] - The shipment of all - cotton plain cloth is divided. Clothing fabric mills are cautious, and home textile fabric mills have a slightly better attitude. Observe the post - Spring Festival market situation [9] 3.3 Options - The 10 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 6.4492, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 6.7%, that of CF601 - P - 13000 was 11.4%, and that of CF601 - P - 12400 was 17.8% [11] - Yesterday, the position PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7339, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 0.6421. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see for options [12][13] 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the internal - external market cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton 1 - month basis, cotton 5 - month basis, cotton 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 spread, CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [15][18][22][23]