Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for hot-rolled coils remained strong this week. Building material demand entered the seasonal off-season and declined month-on-month. Plates such as hot-rolled coils and medium-thick plates performed strongly. Total demand declined marginally, and inventory started to accumulate in the off-season. The supply-demand situation of hot-rolled coils had few contradictions. Affected by factors such as billet exports, hot metal production decreased month-on-month but remained at a relatively high level year-on-year, providing some support for costs. - With the ebb of anti-involution speculation, hot-rolled coils declined in the short term. However, the policy side was still advancing, supporting the price bottom, making it difficult for prices to continue to decline. - The operation strategy was to participate on the long side [36]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part 1: Trend Review - **Hot-rolled coil futures main contract trend**: After reaching a high level this week, the main contract of hot-rolled coil futures declined and then fluctuated narrowly in the short term [8]. - **Hot-rolled coil spot trend**: After the futures rebounded and then declined, the spot price followed [10]. 3.2 Part 2: Basis and Spread - **Hot-rolled coil futures-spot price difference trend**: The 01 basis was 24, the 05 basis was 10, and the 10 basis was 18 [14]. - **Hot-cold spread**: Not detailed in the report 3.3 Part 3: Supply and Demand Analysis - **Hot-rolled coil profit**: The production profit was 251, the 01 contract's on - screen profit was 322, the 05 contract's on - screen profit was 327, and the 10 contract's on - screen profit was 339 [21]. - **Hot-rolled coil production**: The hot-rolled coil production was 315.59, the cold-rolled production was 86.19, the rebar production was 220.45, and the production of the five major steel products was 871.63 [24]. - **Raw materials**: Not detailed in the report - **Hot-rolled coil inventory**: The hot-rolled coil inventory was 357.47, the cold-rolled coil inventory was 172.66, the rebar inventory was 587.19, and the inventory of the five major steel products was 1415.97 [29]. - **Terminal demand**: Not detailed in the report - **Export**: Exports declined month-on-month but remained strong year-on-year [34]. 3.4 Part 4: Market Outlook - The demand for hot-rolled coils remained strong this week, and the supply-demand situation had few contradictions. Although short-term prices declined, policy support made it difficult for prices to continue to fall. The recommended strategy was to participate on the long side [36].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-8-14） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：近期下游市场观望情绪再起，中间环节离市现象增多，下游焦企采购节奏放缓，近期主流 煤企线上竞拍成交涨跌互现，但因产地多数煤矿暂有前期订单拉运，短期煤价支撑较强，但部分焦企考 虑煤价已涨至高位有谨慎签单的情况；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1200，基差-45；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存791.1万吨，港口库存321.5万吨，独立焦企库存790.2万吨，总样本库存1902.8万吨， 较上周增加45.9万吨；偏空 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：部分钢厂接涨焦炭第六轮，钢厂开工高位，焦炭刚需支撑较强，且焦企出货顺畅， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4991 - 5103. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [7][8][9]. - The positive factors include the resumption of supply, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The negative factors are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply side**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. The weekly sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 79.46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 336,105 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.55%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 139,810 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.48%. Supply pressure increased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week, with a significant increase in scheduled production [7]. - **Demand side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.800 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 36.91%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the operating rate of downstream pipes was 32.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.86 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the operating rate of downstream films was 76.92%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the operating rate of downstream paste resin was 74.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.720 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. Current demand may remain weak [8]. - **Cost side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 252.2756 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 104.00%, lower than the historical average; the profit of ethylene method was - 488.965 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 2.00%, lower than the historical average; the double - ton price difference was 2683.25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in profit of 1.10%, higher than the historical average, and the scheduled production may increase [8]. - **Other aspects**: On August 12, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 243 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Factory inventory was 337,163 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.36%, with calcium carbide factory inventory at 259,778 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.49%, and ethylene factory inventory at 77,385 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.62%. Social inventory was 480,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.32%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 3.44%. The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20. The net position of the main force was short, and the short position decreased [8][10]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview The report presents the changes in yesterday's PVC market, including various indicators such as different contract prices, spreads, production, inventory, and operating rates, with detailed data on changes and growth rates [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend No analysis content provided, only a chart showing the basis trend over time. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread No analysis content provided, only a chart showing the spread trend of the main contract over time. 3.5 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors - **Lancoke**: Presents the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily output trends of Lancoke over the years [27]. - **Calcium carbide**: Shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide over the years [30]. - **Liquid chlorine and raw salt**: Displays the price, production trends of liquid chlorine, and the price and monthly production trends of raw salt over the years [32]. - **Caustic soda**: Illustrates the price, cost - profit, operating rate, weekly production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, inventory, and double - ton price difference trends of caustic soda over the years [34][37]. 3.6 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend Shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production trends of calcium carbide and ethylene methods for PVC over the years [38][41]. 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - Presents the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and the operating rates of profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin of PVC over the years [43][47]. - Displays the cost, profit, and monthly production trends of paste resin over the years [49]. - Shows the real - estate investment completion amount, cumulative housing construction area, new housing construction area, commercial housing sales area, and housing completion area over the years [54]. - Illustrates the social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year trends over the years [57]. 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Inventory Presents the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days over the years [59]. 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method Shows the import volume of vinyl chloride, dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB price difference (Tianjin - Taiwan), and vinyl chloride import price difference (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) trends over the years [61]. 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Displays the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC in 2024 and 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data [64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure has increased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week, with a significant increase in production scheduling. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. The PVC2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4954 - 5066 [8][9]. - The positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. The negative factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [12]. - The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 79.46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 336,105 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.55%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 139,810 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.48% [7]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.800 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, and films were 36.91% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.09 percentage points), 32.09% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.86 percentage points), and 76.92% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.07 percentage points) respectively. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 74.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.720 percentage points. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - **Cost**: The profit of calcium carbide method was -，252.2756 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 104.00%. The profit of ethylene method was -，488.965 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 2.00%. The double - ton price difference was 2653.25 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month [8]. - **Other Factors**: The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions. On August 11, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was -，60 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Factory inventory decreased by 2.36% month - on - month, while social inventory increased by 7.32% month - on - month. The MA20 remained flat, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below the MA20 [8][9][10]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents yesterday's market overview data, including prices, price changes, inventory, and operating rates of different types of PVC products such as partial monthly spreads, East China SG - 5, and national calcium carbide and ethylene methods [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical data of the basis, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price [17][18]. - **Price and Volume Trends**: It includes the trading volume, opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and the position changes of the top 5/20 seats of the main contract [20][21]. - **Spread Analysis**: It displays the historical data of the spreads of the main contracts such as 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 [23][24]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It provides data on the prices, costs, profits, operating rates, and inventories of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and the cost - profit situation of chlor - alkali and double - ton price differences [26][29][31][33][35][37]. - **PVC Supply Trend**: It shows the capacity utilization rates, production profits, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of calcium carbide and ethylene methods [38][41]. - **Demand Trend**: It includes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and operating rates of different downstream products. It also presents data on real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, as well as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, new special bonds of local governments, and infrastructure investment year - on - year [43][47][54][57]. - **Inventory**: It shows the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide and ethylene factory inventories, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [58][59]. - **Ethylene Method**: It provides data on the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spreads of ethylene method, and vinyl chloride import spreads [60][61]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [63][64].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Coking Coal**: Despite some negative factors such as slowdown in raw coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices, considering the high level of steel mill hot metal production, short - term demand is still supported. It is expected that the coking coal price will run strongly in the short term [2]. - **Coke**: Although coke producers' production level has slightly increased, due to cost pressure and limited production increase space, and with high demand from some downstream steel mills, the supply - demand pattern remains tight. It is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the short term [6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - **Coking Coal** - **Fundamentals**: Recent production cuts in coal mines have led to a slight reduction in supply. The spot market is cautious, with some high - priced coal seeing price drops. Most mines have no obvious inventory accumulation [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 1100, with a basis of - 156, indicating the spot is at a discount to the futures [2]. - **Inventory**: Total sample inventory is 1902.8 tons, an increase of 45.9 tons from last week [2]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coking coal is short, and short positions are decreasing [2]. - **Expectation**: The sixth round of coke price increase proposed by coking enterprises has not been implemented. Considering high hot metal production, short - term demand is supported, and the price is expected to run strongly [2]. - **Coke** - **Fundamentals**: Coke producers' production has slightly increased, but cost pressure remains, and the production increase space is limited. Downstream demand is high, and supply - demand is tight [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 1590, with a basis of - 89, indicating the spot is at a discount to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Total sample inventory is 839.7 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons from last week [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coke is short, and short positions are increasing [6]. - **Expectation**: Coke producers' inventory is low, and production is difficult to increase significantly. With high demand from steel mills, the price is expected to remain stable [6]. Factors Affecting Prices - **Coking Coal** - **Positive**: Increase in hot metal production and limited supply growth [4]. - **Negative**: Slowdown in raw coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. - **Coke** - **Positive**: Increase in hot metal production and blast furnace operating rate [8]. - **Negative**: Compression of steel mill profit margins and partial overdraft of replenishment demand [8]. Inventory Data - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons from last week [20]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 844.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from last week [25]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [29]. Other Data - **Coke Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 74.48% [42]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 25 yuan [46].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The probability of crude oil continuing to decline remains relatively high, and the energy and chemical sector may await an accelerated decline in crude oil for guidance. Most energy and chemical varieties are currently in a state of short - term decline, with many recommended to hold short positions. Summary by Variety 1. Crude Oil - **Logic**: In September, the production increase rate is 547,000 barrels per day. The end - of - peak - season demand in the US is weakening and is weaker than in previous years, indicating a continuous realization of the expectation of weakening supply - demand fundamentals. Geopolitically, the US and Russia agreed to cease - fire negotiations on the Russia - Ukraine conflict over the weekend [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillating/declining structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term declining structure. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [2]. 2. Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: In August, demand was weak as it was still in the off - season. The supply operating rate remained at a high level of around 77%. With the commissioning of new devices, supply pressure will further increase, and inventory pressure is relatively high year - on - year. Although the cost side of pure benzene has slightly improved, the supply - demand situation is still weak [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term declining structure. The intraday oscillation today did not change the downward path. The short - term upper pressure is temporarily focused on the 7375 line. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [5]. 3. Rubber - **Logic**: According to seasonal patterns, prices should be stronger in the second half of the year, but this year, the supply side has difficulty increasing output even with normal weather. The rainy season in the producing areas has some impact, but there are no extreme weather conditions. Short - term tire production has improved, providing some support, but high tire inventories still suppress the expected increase in production. The medium - term fundamental driving force for rubber is downward [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level shows a short - term decline. Today, there was a small increase in positions and strength. Although it did not exceed the short - term pressure of 15120, after breaking through the 14600 line of 15 - minute pressure, short positions can be closed first and then re - entered after a 15 - minute breakdown. The strategy is to close short positions and then look for re - entry opportunities on the hourly cycle [8]. 4. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The demand side of tires is expected to remain weak in the medium term. On the supply side, the operating rate has not recovered after maintenance and has not increased again. Currently, production is relatively high, and under the pressure of new production capacity, it is bearish in the medium term. In the short term, it is supported by the low inventory of upstream butadiene [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillating/declining structure, and the hourly - level short - term declining structure is being tested. Today, the market increased in positions and strengthened. After breaking through the short - term pressure, it may reverse in the short term. The strategy is to close short positions on the hourly cycle [13]. 5. PX - **Logic**: Upstream PX devices are operating stably. The operating rate of downstream terminals has increased slightly during the off - peak to peak season transition, but there are no significant short - term contradictions. It may follow the direction of the cost - end crude oil [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term declining structure. Today, there was a rebound, but it did not change the downward path. The short - term upper pressure is still focused on the 6825 line. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [17]. 6. PTA - **Logic**: Polyester demand is weak. The supply operating rate is at a medium level year - on - year. Short - term inventory is starting to accumulate, and there are no obvious contradictions. It may follow the direction of the cost - end crude oil [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term declining structure. Today, there was a rebound and repair. The intraday oscillation did not change the downward path. The short - term upper pressure is still focused on the 4760 line. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [18]. 7. PP - **Logic**: During the off - season of demand, downstream operating rates are weak. With the commissioning of new production capacity and the restart of maintenance devices, inventories in all links of the industrial chain continue to accumulate, and the fundamentals are weak. At the same time, pay attention to the trend of crude oil [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term declining structure. Today, it oscillated intraday without changing the declining structure. The hourly - level pressure at 7195 is relatively far, and the 7100 line of the 15 - minute cycle pressure can be focused on first. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [20]. 8. Methanol - **Logic**: The supply operating rate has increased for two consecutive weeks to 73%, remaining at the highest level in history year - on - year. The arrivals in July were low due to Iranian device shutdowns, but in August, with the recovery of Iranian devices, arrivals are expected to increase significantly. Downstream demand is differentiated. Under high supply pressure, port inventories have reached the highest level in the same period in the past five years, and the fundamental driving force is weak [25]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term declining/oscillating structure, and the short - term is in a declining structure. Today, it oscillated intraday. The short - term upper pressure is temporarily focused on the 2400 line. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [25]. 9. PVC - **Logic**: On the supply side, some devices have ended maintenance, and the operating rate has increased to a year - on - year high of 77.8%. Due to the downward trend in the real estate market and the off - season, demand is hard to improve, and inventory pressure is increasing due to continuous accumulation. The fundamental driving force is bearish [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term rising structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term declining structure. Today, it oscillated intraday, and the downward path remained unchanged. The short - term upper pressure is still focused on the 5070 line. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [27]. 10. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The low port inventory makes the short - term fundamentals of ethylene glycol better than other energy and chemical varieties, but the expectation of inventory accumulation also limits the upside space. Pay attention to the start time of inventory accumulation [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillating/declining structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term declining structure. Today, it rebounded and tested the short - term pressure at the 4425 line but did not break through. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [29]. 11. Plastic - **Logic**: The increase in operating rate and the commissioning of new production capacity have led to relatively large supply pressure. Downstream operating rates remain at a low level year - on - year, and the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation in ports and social inventories is evident. The supply - demand driving force is bearish [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillating/declining structure, and the hourly - level is in an oscillating structure. Today, it oscillated intraday, and the hourly - level structure is not clear. The 15 - minute level also shows an oscillating structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle, and stop losses on 15 - minute short positions and then wait and see [33]. 12. Soda Ash - **Logic**: On the supply side, production continued to increase last week, with a month - on - month increase of 45,000 tons. On the demand side, in addition to rigid demand for glass, speculative demand has weakened. The inventory pressure of soda ash plants has increased significantly again, and the heavy soda inventory has reached a new historical high. The supply - demand pressure of soda ash remains large, and anti - involution has not had a substantial impact on soda ash supply [34]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a declining structure. Today, it oscillated intraday. The hourly - level pressure at 1470 is relatively far, and the 1390 pressure at the upper edge of the 15 - minute oscillation range can be focused on first. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, and the stop - profit reference is the 1390 pressure on the 15 - minute cycle [34]. 13. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: On the demand side, the operating rate of alumina remains high, and the operating rate of viscose staple fiber, a non - aluminum demand, has also increased and remains high. However, the supply of caustic soda itself has increased rapidly, the profit of chlor - alkali has increased, and the operating rate of caustic soda has further increased. With a larger increase in supply, inventory has continued to accumulate, and the fundamentals remain weak [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a declining structure. Today, it rebounded with a reduction in positions but did not exceed the hourly - level pressure at the 2515 line and has not reversed. The strategy is to look for short - selling signals on the hourly cycle [36].

证券代码：839979 2025年08月04日-08月08日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 沥青期货周报 3 回顾与展望 本周10合约为下跌态势,周一开盘价为3658元/吨,周五收盘价为3478元/吨，周跌幅为4.92%。 供给端来看，根据隆众对96家企业跟踪，2025年6月份国内沥青总计划排产量为239.8万吨，环比增幅 3.5%,同比增幅12.7%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为33.4372%，环比减少1.32个百分点，全国样本 企业出货28.03万吨，环比增加2.90%,样本企业产量为55.8万吨，环比减少3.79%,样本企业装置检修量预 估为61.6万吨，环比增加1.99%。本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看,重交 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-8-11） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：近日产地因事故、环保及超产等原因停减产的煤矿较多，供应端减量明显。随着终端补库 节奏放缓，且中间环节部分降价出货，焦煤成交氛围有所转弱，竞拍市场流拍比例增加，成交价多涨跌 互现。不过煤矿预售订单仍在执行，厂内库存低位，支撑煤价仍多坚挺，部分高价资源小幅回落；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1100，基差-127；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存791.1万吨，港口库存321.5万吨，独立焦企库存790.2万吨，总样本库存1902.8万吨， 较上周增加45.9万吨；偏空 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：焦企开工率和铁水产 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned asphalt production in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The capacity utilization rate has increased this week, and the refineries have increased production, which will increase supply pressure next week [8]. - The demand side indicates that the current demand is lower than the historical average, with the heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membrane开工率 (operating rates) mostly lower than the historical average, while the modified asphalt and road - modified asphalt开工率 are higher [8]. - The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit is - 696.98 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.00%, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 760.1786 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10.25%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term cost support is expected to weaken [9]. - It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 fluctuating in the range of 3505 - 3551 [10]. - There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factor is that the relatively high - level crude oil cost provides some support; the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of the economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: The planned production in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The weekly capacity utilization rate is 34.7555%, with a month - on - month increase of 3.835 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 580,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 12.40%, and the device maintenance volume is estimated to be 604,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.91% [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 33.1%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.15 percentage points; the building asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 16.1987%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.74 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 27%, unchanged month - on - month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 29%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.00 percentage point. Overall, the current demand is below the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 696.98 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.00%, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 760.1786 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10.25% [9]. - **Expectation**: The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 fluctuating in the range of 3505 - 3551 [10]. - **Other Factors**: The positive factor is the relatively high - level crude oil cost; the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of the economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Fundamentals**: Bearish, as the supply pressure is high and the demand recovery is weak [8][15]. - **Basis**: On August 7, the Shandong spot price is 3760 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract is 232 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Bullish [11]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 1.343 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%; the in - factory inventory is 700,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.18%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 110,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 31.25%. All inventories are decreasing. Bullish [11]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the 10 - contract futures price closes below the MA20. Bearish [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position increases. Bullish [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC increased this week, and the expected production schedule is likely to increase significantly next week as maintenance is expected to decrease. The current demand may remain sluggish, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The PVC2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4988 - 5104. The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish [7][8][9]. - The positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The negative factors are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Viewpoints - **Base Spread**: On August 7th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4980 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 66 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [10]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory was 34534 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.28%. The calcium carbide factory inventory was 26919 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.12%, and the ethylene factory inventory was 7615 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.85%. The social inventory was 44800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.91%. The inventory days of production enterprises was 5.8 days, a month - on - month decrease of 3.33%, all indicating a bearish situation [10]. - **Market Chart**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below the MA20, showing a neutral signal [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased, indicating a bearish signal [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Supply Side - In July 2025, the PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 76.84%, with no change from the previous week. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 32458 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.06%, while the production of ethylene enterprises was 12770 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.82%. The supply pressure increased this week, and the production schedule is expected to increase significantly next week as maintenance is expected to decrease [7]. Demand Side - The overall downstream operating rate was 42.05%, a month - on - month increase of 0.169 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 37%, a month - on - month decrease of 1 percentage point, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 32.96%, a month - on - month increase of 0.439 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 77%, unchanged from the previous week, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 70.82%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.25 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. The current demand may remain sluggish [8]. Cost Side - The profit of calcium carbide method was - 20.9487 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month reduction of losses by 84.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 478.9958 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month reduction of losses by 5.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2673.25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit decrease of 2.00%, higher than the historical average. The production schedule may increase [8].