备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 9 日） 品种观点参考 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：近期豆类市场呈现"近强远弱"格局，豆粕主力 2605 合约大幅下挫并跌破前期震荡区间， 主要受国际与国内多重利空因素共同驱动。尽管中美贸易关系有所缓和，但美豆对华实际出口进度远 低于预期，市场"缺少中国买盘的提振"。市场预期即将发布的 12 月 USDA 报告将上调美国大豆期 末库存，报告前市场预期利空，美豆价格跌破 1100 美分/蒲式耳的关键心理关口。美豆走弱令国内豆 类期价的成本支撑减弱，市场预期在远月 05 合约上得到释放。同时，国内产业链表现疲软，下游饲 ...

纯碱早报 2025-12-9 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 影响因素总结 利多： 1、设备问题导致企业减量检修，纯碱供应恢复较慢。 利空： 每日观点 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张，今年仍有较大投产计划，行业产量处于历史同期高位。 2、重碱下游光伏玻璃减产，对纯碱需求走弱。 主要逻辑和风险点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日 熔量整体延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1115元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1133元/吨，基差为-18元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存153.86万吨，较前一周减少3.07%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在2 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年12月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年11月PVC产量为207.926万吨，环比减少2.29%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为79.89%，环比减少0.00个百分点；电石法企业产量35.5176万吨，环比减少0.10%,乙烯法企业产 量13.526万吨，环比增加1.46%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.07%，环比减少0.53个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为35.87%，环比减少0.22个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为37.4%，环比减少1.4个百 分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-12-8） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：焦煤供应增速缓慢，煤矿报价陆续下调后，出货有所好转。下游采购节奏放缓，市场心态 偏弱，加之近期线上竞拍回调情况较多，炼焦煤支撑力度较低，影响主产地炼焦煤市场成交价仍在小幅 探降。整体看当前市场谨慎观望居多，部分高价煤种或将受库存压力仍有回调预期；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价1170，基差30；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存801万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存861万吨，总样本库存1957万吨，较上 周减少21万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：焦钢企业采购较为谨慎，且钢材价格近日虽有反弹，但钢厂仍 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年12月08日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 | 交割月份 | 前結構 | 今开盘 | 腰高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 培植参考价 | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 | 成交手 | 成交额 | 持合手/变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商品名称:锌 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2512 | 22805 | 22850 | 23265 | 22830 | 23265 | 23075 | 460 | 270 | 3285 | 37904.45 | 5760 | -1240 | | 26 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年12月5日 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.61%，环比增加.420个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为36.09%，环比减少0.20个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为38.8%，环比减少1.40个百 分点，高于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为73.93%，环比增加.860个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下 游糊树脂开工率为78.03%，环比持平.高于历史平均水平；船运费用看涨；国内PVC出口价格价格占优； 当前需求或持续低迷。 成本端来看，电石法利润为-880.71元/吨，亏损环比增加3.80%，低于历史平均水平；乙烯法利润为- 1、基本面: 偏空。 464.69元/吨，亏损环比减少9.00%，低于历史平均水平；双吨价差为1860.95元/吨，利润环比减少 2.00%，低于历史平均水平，排产或将承压。 2、基差: 12月04日，华东SG-5价为4510元/吨，01合约基差为10元/吨，现货升水期货。 中性。 3、库存: 厂内库存为32.264万吨，环比增加2.28%，电石法厂库为24.939万吨，环比增加3.57%， ...

不锈钢 每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年12月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘20均线上方小幅震荡运行。近期部分产能减产，部分货源偏紧。产业链上，镍矿价格 坚挺，海运费持平，印尼2026年RKAB配额预计3.19亿吨，预期供应宽松。镍铁价格有止跌迹象，大部分 维稳，小部分仍有回落，成本线重心维稳。不锈钢库存回升，需求表现仍不佳。精炼镍库存持续高位， 过剩格局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求提振有限。偏空 2、基差：现货120400，基差2640，偏多 3、库存：LME库存253116，+126，上交所仓单35096，+2501，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向下，中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论： ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 12 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡偏弱 | 供需格局弱稳，钢价延续震荡 | 说明： 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局弱稳运行，螺纹产量有所回落，但短流程钢厂利润迎改善，供应收缩难持续。 与此同时，螺纹钢需求走弱，高频指标延续低位运行，且下游行业未见好转，需求料将季节性走 弱，继而承压钢价。目前来看，市场情绪回暖，钢价近期震荡企稳，但供需双弱局面下螺纹钢基本 面并无实质性改善，钢价上行驱动不强，预计钢价延续震荡运行态势，关注今日钢联公布产销数据 情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors are the overall rebound in supply pressure, high and slow - moving inventory, and weak domestic and external demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [11][12]. - The PVC2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 4551 - 4599 [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Positive factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand. The main logic is the strong supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [11][12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In October 2025, PVC production was 2.12812 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.22%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 355,560 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.83%, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 133,310 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00%. Supply pressure increased this week. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production is expected to increase slightly [7]. 3.2.2 Cost - The profit of calcium carbide - based production was - 880.71 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 3.80%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene - based production was - 464.69 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 9.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 1,925.95 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month, lower than the historical average [7]. 3.2.3 Basis - On December 2, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 35 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [7]. 3.2.4 Inventory - Factory inventory was 322,640 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.28%. Calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 249,390 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.57%, and ethylene - based factory inventory was 73,250 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.87%. Social inventory was 527,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.22%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.35 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.94% [7]. 3.2.5 Market - MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20 [7]. 3.2.6 Main Position - The main position is net short, with short positions decreasing [7]. 3.2.7 Expectation - The cost of calcium carbide - based production is weakening, and the cost of ethylene - based production is strengthening, with the overall cost weakening. Supply pressure increased this week, and production is expected to increase next week. Overall inventory is at a neutral level, and current demand may remain weak [7]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's PVC market data, including prices, price changes, and inventory data of different types of PVC and related products [15]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market 3.4.1 Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trend of the PVC basis, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price [18]. 3.4.2 Volume and Position - The report shows the trading volume, price trend, and position changes of the main PVC futures contract [21]. 3.4.3 Spread Analysis - The report analyzes the spread of the main PVC futures contract, including the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread [24]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis 3.5.1 Calcium Carbide Method - Related - It includes the price, cost - profit, and production - related data of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method [27][30][32][35]. 3.5.2 Supply Trend - It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of PVC production by calcium carbide and ethylene methods [38][40]. 3.5.3 Demand Trend - It includes the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream average operating rate of PVC [42][45]. 3.5.4 Inventory - It presents the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based factory inventory, ethylene - based factory inventory, and social inventory of PVC [56]. 3.5.5 Ethylene Method - Related - It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and related price spreads in the ethylene method [58]. 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It provides the monthly supply - demand balance data of PVC from September 2024 to October 2025, including production, import, export, demand, social inventory, and factory inventory [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Likelihood Factors**: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [10] - **Negative Factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [10] - **Main Logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and sluggish domestic demand recovery [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Likelihood factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits; negative factors are overall supply pressure rebound, high and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is strong supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [10][11] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Fundamentals**: Calcium carbide method cost weakens, ethylene method cost strengthens, with overall cost weakening. This week, supply pressure increases. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [7] - **Basis**: On December 1st, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 13 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a neutral situation [7] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory is 322,640 tons, a 2.28% increase month - on - month. Calcium carbide method factory inventory is 249,390 tons, a 3.57% increase; ethylene method factory inventory is 73,250 tons, a 1.87% decrease. Social inventory is 527,900 tons, a 0.22% increase. The in - stock days of production enterprises are 5.35 days, a 0.94% increase [7] - **Market Chart**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes below MA20, showing a bearish trend [7] - **Main Position**: The main position has a net short position, with short positions decreasing, showing a bearish trend [7] - **Expectation**: Production scheduling is expected to increase. Overall inventory is at a neutral level, and current demand may remain sluggish. It is necessary to continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4529 - 4577 [7][8] 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report presents yesterday's PVC market overview, including prices, spreads, inventories, downstream operating rates, and other data [14] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: Displays the historical basis trend of PVC, including the relationship between the basis, East China market price, and main contract closing price [17] - **Price and Volume Trend**: Presents the price, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract [20] - **Spread Analysis**: Analyzes the spread trends of the PVC futures main contract, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread [23] 3.5 PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: Analyzes the prices, costs, profits, operating rates, and inventories of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method [26][29][32][34] - **Supply Trend**: Analyzes the production capacity utilization rate, production volume, maintenance volume, etc. of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production [37][39] - **Demand Trend**: Analyzes the trading volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of PVC [41][43][47] - **Inventory**: Analyzes the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days of PVC [55] - **Ethylene Method**: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads in the ethylene method [57] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents the monthly supply - demand balance data of PVC, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [60]