Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2605 are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory with a slight upward bias respectively. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line. The fundamental situation is weak, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. The production of construction steel mills is stable, and rebar supply has slightly shrunk, but the reduction is limited due to decent profit per ton. Demand has not changed much, with weekly apparent demand increasing slightly but other high - frequency indicators being sluggish and mostly at low levels in recent years. The downstream industry has not improved, and demand remains seasonally weak, dragging down steel prices. In the situation of weak supply and demand, the rebar fundamentals are weak, and steel prices are under pressure in the off - season. However, prices have fallen near the valley - electricity cost, increasing the downward resistance, and the subsequent trend will shift to low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Mysteel today [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory with a slight upward bias. The reference is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the weak fundamental operation and low - level oscillation of steel prices. The calculation of price increase or decrease amplitude is based on the closing price of the night session (for products with night sessions) or the previous day's closing price (for products without night sessions) as the starting price and the closing price of the day session as the ending price. A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, 0 - 1% decline is oscillatory with a downward bias, 0 - 1% increase is oscillatory with an upward bias, and an increase of more than 1% is considered strong. Oscillatory with an upward or downward bias only applies to the intraday view [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. Supply has slightly shrunk but the reduction is limited due to profit. Demand has not changed much, with weekly apparent demand increasing slightly but other high - frequency indicators being sluggish. The downstream industry has not improved, and demand remains seasonally weak, dragging down steel prices. In the off - season, steel prices are under pressure but have reached near the valley - electricity cost, increasing the downward resistance, and the subsequent trend will be low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Mysteel today [3].

Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to focus on the support at the MA20 line and the production situation of steel mills. [2][3] Details by Category Variety View Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2605 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "weak oscillation" respectively. The view is to focus on the support at the MA20 line, with the core logic being the weak supply - demand pattern and low - level oscillation of steel prices. [2] Market Driving Logic - Over the weekend, steel spot prices remained stable with weak trading volume. The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. Construction steel mills' production is stable, and rebar output has slightly declined. However, the profit per ton of the variety is acceptable, so the contraction of supply is difficult to sustain. [3] - Rebar demand has improved, with the weekly apparent demand increasing month - on - month. But the high - frequency daily trading volume is sluggish, and both supply and demand are still at the low level of the same period in recent years. The downstream industry has not improved, and demand continues the seasonal weakness, dragging down steel prices. [3] - Currently, although rebar demand has improved, the sustainability is not strong, while the supply is weakly stable. The fundamentals show seasonal weakness, and steel prices in the off - season are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factor is the good commodity sentiment. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level. [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the content. 2) Core Viewpoints - For螺纹, the overall view is to treat it with a volatile and bearish mindset due to factors such as lackluster demand, a low - rising inventory, weak purchasing willingness of traders, and the real - estate industry in a downward cycle. However, there are also some positive factors like low production, spot premium, and promotion of domestic consumption [2][3]. - For热卷, considering the weakening supply and demand, reduced inventory, blocked exports, and the impact of domestic capacity - reduction plans, it is also recommended to take a volatile and bearish approach. There are positive factors such as fair demand, spot premium, and promotion of domestic consumption [7][9]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Fundamental Analysis - **螺纹**: Demand is poor, inventory is rising from a low level, and the real - estate industry is in a downward cycle, which is bearish. But low production and spot premium are positive factors [2][3]. - **热卷**: Supply and demand are both weakening, inventory is decreasing, and exports are blocked, but domestic policies may play a role, with an overall neutral assessment [7]. b) Basis Analysis - **螺纹**: The spot price is 3300, and the basis is 138, which is bullish [2]. - **热卷**: The spot price is 3290, and the basis is - 16, which is neutral [7]. c) Inventory Analysis - **螺纹**: The inventory in 35 major cities is 295.41 million tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is bullish [2]. - **热卷**: The inventory in 33 major cities is 285.8 million tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year, which is neutral [7]. d) Market Analysis - **螺纹**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **热卷**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [7]. e) Main Position Analysis - **螺纹**: The net position of the main contract is short, and short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **热卷**: The net position of the main contract is long, and long positions are increasing, which is bullish [7]. f) Price - related Analysis The report also presents various price - related data, including螺纹and热卷spot prices, prices in Southeast Asian export markets,唐山steel billet prices, and domestic scrap steel comprehensive prices [11][14][17]. g) Production - related Analysis It shows data on高炉开工 rate,螺纹short - process electric furnace开工率,螺纹and热卷weekly production, etc [31][34][37]. h) Profit - related Analysis Profit data such as螺纹and热卷disk profit,高炉estimated profit, and建筑用钢electric furnace estimated profit are provided [43][46][48]. i) Consumption - related Analysis Data on螺纹and热卷apparent consumption, inventory - to - consumption ratio, and building material trading volume are presented [67][72][75]. j) Industry - related Analysis It includes data on real - estate development investment, sales area, housing new construction, construction, and completion area, manufacturing PMI, steel monthly export data, and cement prices [78][80][82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is expected to remain in a short - term oscillatory adjustment with limited downside space, and attention should be paid to the support around the 20 - day line [1]. - The short - term upward momentum of the sugar market is weak, but the double - festival stocking may boost demand, and one can consider buying on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Cotton - In December 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were $25.992 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 7.35% and a month - on - month increase of 8.89%. Among them, textile exports were $12.58 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 4.16% and a month - on - month increase of 2.48%; clothing exports were $13.412 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 10.15% and a month - on - month increase of 15.69% [1]. - From January to December 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were $293.767 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 2.42%. Among them, textile exports were $142.585 billion, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%; clothing exports were $151.182 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5% [1]. - The USDA's cotton report is slightly bullish, but the price increase space is restricted due to the ineffective transmission of upstream price increases downstream [1]. Sugar - In the first half of December, the sugar production and sugar - making ratio in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased year - on - year, but the impact on the international sugar market was limited [2]. - The current focus of the short - term market is on the actual implementation of the production increase in the northern hemisphere main producing countries [2]. - The estimated cost of processed Brazilian sugar within the quota after tax is 3,947 yuan/ton, and that outside the quota is 5,011 yuan/ton. The estimated profit of processed Brazilian sugar within the quota after tax compared with the Rizhao white sugar spot price is 1,573 yuan/ton, and that outside the quota is 509 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis repair of sugar futures and spot has basically been completed, and the valuation of far - month contracts has also been somewhat repaired. The near - month contracts still face great supply pressure [2].

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 1 / 1 5 玻璃价格下跌，后续怎么看 核心结论：短期震荡，中期偏强，冷修预期短暂托底，春节后保交楼或加剧强势，下方成本支撑强 。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 - 供应端：日熔量降至15万吨以下，冷修增多，但行业亏损未驱动大规模产能出清，供应收缩幅度有限； 厂家库存同比偏高，累库压力未缓解 。 - 需求端：地产竣工与新开工疲软，浮法刚需持续低迷；光伏玻璃需求增量有限，深加工订单天数仅 8.6天，采购观望，支撑不足。 - 技术与资金：主力2605合约震荡，基差弱势、期货升水，资金情绪偏谨慎，反弹结束转震荡。 - 关键变量：春节前备货或短暂托底，节后需求淡季将加剧库存压力；玻璃冷修落地、地产刺激若兑现， 中期或企稳 。 - 交易策略：短期以宽幅震荡对待主； 中期关注冷修进度与库存去化，无明确利好不抄底，可配合多玻璃空纯碱正向套利。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2026年1月14日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年12月份沥青总计划排产量为215.8万吨，环比降幅3.24%。本周国内石油沥青样 本产能利用率为27.5048%，环比减少1.86个百分点，全国样本企业出货21.03万吨，环比减少20.05%,样本企业 产量为45.9万吨，环比减少6.32%,样本企业装置检修量预估为99.6万吨，环比增加3.64%,本周炼厂有所减产， 降低供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为25.4%，环比减少0.07个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青开工率为6.6%， 环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为6.738%，环 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate with a downward trend in the short term. The supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, and inventory is at a high level compared to the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1239 yuan/ton to 1212 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.18%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe dropped from 1185 yuan/ton to 1160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.11%. The main basis changed from - 54 yuan/ton to - 52 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.70% [6]. 2. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1160 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash for North China ammonia - alkali method is - 57.85 yuan/ton, and for East China co - production method is - 40 yuan/ton, at a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 81.65%, and the weekly output is 75.36 tons, with heavy soda ash at 40.45 tons, at a historical high [18][21]. - From 2023 to 2025, there has been a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity. The total planned new capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and 750 tons in 2025 (with 100 tons actually put into production) [22]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 108.54% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.01 tons, and the operating rate is 71.96% [28]. - The demand for soda ash from photovoltaic glass has weakened [4]. 4. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories is 157.27 tons, an increase of 11.67% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35]. 6. Influencing Factors - **Likely to be positive**: Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3]. - **Likely to be negative**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and the industry output is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass has cut production, reducing the demand for soda ash [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides daily views and operation suggestions for various futures varieties, including trends such as A - share continuous upward movement, bond market marginal repair, and price fluctuations in multiple commodities [3]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Equity Index - A - shares continue to rise with increasing trading volume, and the trading sentiment is strong. It is recommended to hold the bull spread combination and consider constructing a covered combination on dips, focusing on risk control. Among them, the IC component is more in line with the main - line structure and performs better [3]. Treasury Bonds - After the previous adjustment, the duration of the trading positions in the bond market has been reduced, and the selling pressure has eased. Supported by the continuous loosening of the capital side, the bond market has shown a marginal repair. In the short - term, the bond market is still in a volatile situation, and the rebound of bond futures may be limited. The later trend depends on the fundamentals and government bond supply. It is recommended to wait and see on the unilateral strategy and tend to steepen the curve in the medium - term [3]. Precious Metals - Due to the uncertainty of the US domestic and foreign situations, the US dollar weakens and precious metals generally rise. Gold can be lightly held long above $4300, or sell out - of - the - money put options. Silver is recommended to hold long positions above $75, and platinum and palladium are recommended to be bought lightly on dips near the 20 - day moving average [3]. Steel and Iron Ore - Steel inventory has reached the seasonal accumulation inflection point, and steel prices remain volatile. The iron ore supply is in the off - season, and the port inventory continues to accumulate, with prices in a wide - range shock. For coking coal, Shanxi coal prices rise more than fall, and it is recommended to go long on dips and conduct arbitrage by going long on coking coal and short on coke. After the fourth round of coke price cuts after New Year's Day, it stabilizes, and the same arbitrage strategy is applicable [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices are at a high level, and downstream operating rates are weakening, so long positions should be held cautiously. Alumina has a short - term oversupply trend, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short on rallies in the medium - term. Aluminum prices continue to reach new highs, and it is not recommended to chase the rise. Zinc prices move up, and long positions can be held for long - term on dips. Tin prices hit the daily limit, and the previously bought call options can be held. Nickel prices rise sharply, and long positions should be appropriately reduced on rallies [3]. New Energy and Chemicals - Lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit, and a long - on - dips strategy is recommended. PX has limited rebound space, and a low - level positive arbitrage strategy is recommended. PTA and short - fiber follow raw material fluctuations, and a low - level positive arbitrage strategy is also applicable. Ethanol is under upward pressure, and it is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [3]. Agricultural Products - Soybean meal is in a weak adjustment, and the USDA's increase in US soybean production puts pressure on beans. Pork demand declines after the festival, and the price is in a range - bound shock. Corn has strong downward support and shows a strong upward trend. The USDA report is negative for soybean oil in the short - term [3].

2026年1月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年12月份沥青总计划排产量为215.8万吨，环比降幅3.24%。本周国内石油沥青样 本产能利用率为27.5048%，环比减少1.86个百分点，全国样本企业出货21.03万吨，环比减少20.05%,样本企业 产量为45.9万吨，环比减少6.32%,样本企业装置检修量预估为99.6万吨，环比增加3.64%,本周炼厂有所减产， 降低供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为25.4%，环比减少0.07个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青开工率为6.6%， 环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为6.738%，环 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that methanol futures are expected to run strongly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of strength. The overall trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Information 3.1 Time - cycle View - For methanol 2605, the short - term view (within one week) is oscillation, the medium - term view (two weeks to one month) is oscillation, and the intraday view is strength, with a reference view of running strongly [1]. 3.2 Core Logic - The strongest support for the upward movement of methanol prices before the festival comes from the "hard contraction" of overseas supply. Iran, a major import source, is facing serious supply disruptions [5]. - The depletion of domestic port methanol inventories has led to the repair of port spot prices and a stronger basis, which has boosted the confidence of long - position holders in the futures market [5]. - Although the methanol futures price had a slight correction on Wednesday night, the coal futures price rose significantly again. The expectation of a decline in external imports outweighs the weak real - world demand, so the domestic methanol futures are expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend on Thursday [5].