交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 甲醇周报 （6.9 大越期货投资咨询部 -6.13 金泽彬 ） 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周评论 2 基本面数据 3 检修状况 4 观点与策略 甲醇周评：短期国内甲醇市场或以区间震荡为主。港口市场方面，持续累库，不过港口船龄限制政策实 施，后续局部进口到货或不及预期，叠加宏观面及原油表现偏强，短期港口期现货尚存一定支撑，然港口价 格上涨后，现货商谈气氛平平，预计短期港口市场维持震荡行情概率大，需关注后续进口船货到港情况。内 地市场方面，近期产区工厂出货量较大，上游企业库存可控，同时底部区间下部分贸易商持货意愿增强，对 行情有一定利好推动。但内地煤制企业利润可观，开工仍处高位，叠加下游处于传统淡季，供需基本面缺乏 明显利好驱动下，部分业者心态谨慎。多空交织预计下周内地甲醇 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic methanol market showed different trends. The spot price of the port methanol market continued to be strong, while the inland methanol market rose slightly. Affected by macro - sentiment, the futures and port prices increased. In the near future, the output of the restored methanol production capacity in China is more than that of the overhauled and reduced - production capacity, with a slight increase in overall output. The inventory of domestic methanol enterprises and ports increased this week. The olefin industry's device operation is stable, and the operating rate of the domestic methanol - to - olefin industry has increased. Due to the impact of the Middle East situation, the futures price of the MA2509 contract has risen rapidly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term to prevent the callback correction caused by the rapid rise of the futures price [7] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Trend**: The port methanol market price was strong (Jiangsu: 2300 - 2420 yuan/ton, Guangdong: 2280 - 2320 yuan/ton), and the inland market rose slightly (Ordos: 1883 - 1897 yuan/ton, Dongying receiving price: 2150 - 2160 yuan/ton). The futures and port prices increased due to macro - sentiment [7] - **Supply and Demand**: The output of restored production capacity is more than that of overhauled and reduced - production capacity, with a slight increase in overall output. The inventory of enterprises and ports increased. The olefin industry's device operation is stable, and the operating rate of the domestic methanol - to - olefin industry has increased [7] - **Strategy**: Due to the impact of the Middle East situation, the futures price of the MA2509 contract has risen rapidly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term to prevent the callback correction caused by the rapid rise of the futures price [7] 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 5.52% [10] - **Inter - period Spread**: As of June 13, the MA 9 - 1 spread was - 34 [15] - **Position Analysis**: Not provided in the summary part - **Warehouse Receipt**: As of June 13, there were 9309 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, an increase of 4709 compared to last week [21] 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Price**: As of June 13, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2480 yuan/ton, an increase of 145 yuan/ton compared to last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 1950 yuan/ton, an increase of 58 yuan/ton compared to last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 530 yuan/ton, an increase of 97.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [25] - **Foreign Price**: As of June 12, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 272 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9 US dollars/ton compared to last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 50 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7 US dollars/ton compared to last week [31] - **Basis**: As of June 13, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was 91 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton compared to last week [35] 3.4 Industrial Chain - **Upstream**: As of June 11, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 665 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to last week. As of June 12, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.54 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.12 US dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [38] - **Industry**: As of June 12, China's methanol output was 1,982,656 tons, an increase of 572 tons compared to last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 87.98%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03%. As of June 11, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 652,200 tons, an increase of 71,000 tons compared to the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 379,100 tons, an increase of 8,600 tons compared to the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 2.33%; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 302,100 tons, an increase of 39,900 tons compared to the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 15.22%. In April 2025, China's methanol import volume was 787,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 66.53%; from January to April 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 2.8648 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 31.49%. As of June 12, the methanol import profit was 16.68 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.35 yuan/ton compared to last week [41][45][49] - **Downstream**: As of June 12, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 89.52%, a week - on - week increase of 2.76%. As of June 13, the domestic methanol - to - olefin on - disk profit was - 878 yuan/ton, a decrease of 202 yuan/ton compared to last week [52][55] 3.5 Option Market Analysis - Not provided in the content

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2025 年 6 月 9 日 甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面震荡，最终报收 2277（+11/+0.49%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 1880 元/吨，北线报价 1870 元/吨。关中地区 报价 2000 元/吨，榆林地区报价 1880 元/吨，山西地区报价 2020 元/吨，河南地区报价 2090 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2150 元/吨，鲁北报价 2150 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2040 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 2150 元/吨，云贵报价 2180 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 2330 元/吨，宁波报价 2380 元/吨，广州报价 2290 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 本周期(20250531-20250606）国际甲醇（除中国）产量为 975353 吨，较上周增加 29300 吨，装置产能利用率为 66.86%，较上周提升 2.01%。周期内，伊朗 ZPC 重启一条产线， Kimiya 正常运行中，南美、东南亚装置略有波动。 【逻辑分析】 供应端，当前西北煤炭主产地煤矿开工率回落，但需求偏弱，原料煤价格震荡， ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 甲醇周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0018016 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021541 日期：2025年06月08日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：低位反弹 01 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 综述 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 3 ➢ 国内现货：本周国内甲醇市场走势有所差异。节后国内甲醇生产企业出货不佳，加之假期期间汽运运力不足，部分甲醇生产企业库 存累库，下调价格积极出货为主，所以内地甲醇价格整体偏弱；沿海甲醇市场受政策类提振，价格低位反弹上行，但涨后出货不佳， 基差有所回落。 (隆众资讯） ➢ 基本面：本周甲醇港口库存如期累库，周期内外轮卸货基本符合预期，显性计入26.35万吨。江苏地区虽有重点下游停车及降负， 但国产船货供应预期减量，沿江主流库区在下游船发支撑下提货稳健；浙江地区刚需稳定，库存无波动。本周华南港口库存窄幅累 库，主要体现在广东地区，周期内进口及内贸船只均补充 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.06.06」 甲醇市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周国内甲醇市场走势有所差异，部分甲醇生产企业库存累库，下调价格积极出货为 主，内地甲醇价格整体偏弱；沿海甲醇市场受政策类提振，价格低位反弹上行，但涨后出货不佳， 基差有所回落。 行情展望：近期国内甲醇恢复涉及产能产出量多于检修、减产涉及产能产出量，整体产量小幅增 加。西北产区运力不足，企业发货节奏放缓，本周国内甲醇企业库存继续增加。外轮卸货基本符 合预期，甲醇港口库存如期累库，华东地区部分重点下游停车及降负但沿江主流库区在下游船发 支撑下提货稳健；华南地区进口及内贸船只均补充供应，而主流库区提货受限使得库存呈现累库。 需求方面，宁夏宝丰二期装置重启，山东恒通装置负荷提升，本周国内甲醇制烯烃行业开工率有 所提升。 策略建议： MA2509合约短线预计在2240-2300区间波动。 「 期货市场情况」 甲醇 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-05-20甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：预计本周国内甲醇市场维持多空交织震荡格局，或呈现区域分化。其中港口市场方面，近期宏观面影响下 期货波动频繁，短期现货交投趋于谨慎，本周进口到货有所提升，供应存增加预期，或压制期现货市场走势，不过连云 港装置计划本周恢复，烯烃刚需托底或有一定支撑，预计本周港口价格仍随期货震荡为主。内地方面，短期开工维持高 位，而传统下游需求淡季下难有提振，叠加港口价格回落传导，价格上行缺乏持续驱动，不过局部企业库存不高，短期 内地企业依据自身供需调整概率大，或震荡为主。需跟进烯烃工厂原料采购招标价及伊朗新增装船动态，另外宏观面 ...

研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.05.16」 甲醇市场周报 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周国内市场情绪向好，甲醇价格整体上行为主，但涨后下游对高价存抵触，沿海主 流甲醇市场现货基差快速回落，内地市场氛围也随之有所偏弱。 行情展望：近期国内甲醇恢复涉及产能产出量多于检修、减产涉及产能产出量，整体产量小幅增 加。下游主力需求区域需求下降，导致内蒙古地区样本企业出货量减少，内地企业库存增加。本 周甲醇港口主流库区提货环比有所减量，但受制于周期内卸货量少，整体库存再度去库。需求方 面，中煤榆林烯烃装置停车，本周烯烃行业开工维持低位。 策略建议： MA2509合约短线2250-2320区间波动。 「 期货市场情况」 甲醇期货价格走势 郑州甲醇期货价格走势 来源：博易大师 • 本周郑州甲醇主力合约价格震荡收涨，当周主力合约期价+2.56%。 4 「 期货市场情况」 跨期价差 MA 9-1价差 来源： ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-05-15甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 利多： 1.部分装置停车或有检修计划：山西华昱、河南鹤壁、安徽碳鑫等。久泰、新奥和内蒙 荣信3月中下旬有检修计划。 2.3月份进口预期偏少，港口去库存超预期。 3.烯烃开工处于高位，传统下游需求进入旺季。 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：五一长假前后国内甲醇市场呈区域性走势，港口抗跌性强于内地。内地方面，前期停车装置在4月下旬集中 恢复，且长假后局部地区甲醇工厂库存有一定累积。而传统下游甲醛等步入需求淡季、成本压力下MTBE开工下滑明 显。供需矛盾激化下场内看空氛围浓厚，下游多不急于补充库存，而长协贸易商积极出货，高利润之下上游甲醇工厂也 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-05-13甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：五一长假前后国内甲醇市场呈区域性走势，港口抗跌性强于内地。内地方面，前期停车装置在4月下旬集中 恢复，且长假后局部地区甲醇工厂库存有一定累积。而传统下游甲醛等步入需求淡季、成本压力下MTBE开工下滑明显。 供需矛盾激化下场内看空氛围浓厚，下游多不急于补充库存，而长协贸易商积极出货，高利润之下上游甲醇工厂也主动 降价以促进出货为主，内地甲醇价格跌幅明显。直至宁夏烯烃工厂甲醇外采，产区甲醇工厂去库节奏快，以及贸易商多 出货完毕持货量不多，周末附近内地气氛逐步企稳。港口方面，维持期限联动，在宏观面及原油影响下区间震 ...

Report Summary 1. Strategy Recommendation - Recommend trading the MA2509 contract in the range of 2200 - 2260 in the short term [7] 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic methanol market mainly declined due to insufficient market confidence. The low inventory in the coastal methanol market supported the spot and near - month markets, with the coastal market's decline less than that of the inland. The downstream demand decreased, and the inventory might accumulate in the short term [8] 3. Market Conditions Futures Market - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures oscillated and closed lower this week, with a weekly decline of 1.07% [11] - As of May 9, the MA 9 - 1 spread was - 63 [16] - As of May 8, there were 8380 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, an increase of 1420 from last week [23] Spot Market - As of May 9, the mainstream price in the Taicang area of East China was 2420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia in the northwest was 2095 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and the northwest was 325 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from last week [29] - As of May 8, the CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 263 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the main Chinese port was 77 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton from last week [35] - As of May 9, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was 193 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton from last week [40] 4. Industry Chain Analysis Upstream - As of May 7, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 675 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [44] - As of May 8, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.62 US dollars per million British thermal units, an increase of 0.3 US dollars per million British thermal units from last week [44] Industry - As of May 8, China's methanol production was 2,057,775 tons, an increase of 49,170 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 92.17%, a month - on - month increase of 2.45% [47] - As of May 7, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 551,900 tons, an increase of 14,500 tons from the previous period. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 12,900 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 27,400 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 303,900 tons, an increase of 20,600 tons from the previous period, a rise of 7.26%; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 237,800 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons from the previous period, a decline of 4.75% [53] - In March 2025, China's methanol imports were 473,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.81%; from January to March 2025, China's cumulative methanol imports were 2,077,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.70%. As of May 8, the methanol import profit was 90.26 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.2 yuan/ton from last week [56] Downstream - As of May 8, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins devices was 82.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.87%. The overall industry start - up declined [59] - As of May 9, the domestic methanol - to - olefins spot profit was - 514 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton from last week [62]