1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's latest interest rate meeting minutes show that most officials tend not to cut rates, meaning a December rate cut is highly unlikely, and the market risk appetite remains volatile while the US dollar rebounds [1][12][19]. - Against the backdrop of the Ministry of Finance's early allocation of part of the 2026 budget for urban affordable housing projects, the Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly higher with reduced trading volume, but the market style is chaotic and risk - averse trading persists. It is recommended to reduce long positions [2][22]. - The bond market failed to break through the upper limit of the trading range and had adjustment pressure. With the stock market strengthening slightly, Treasury bond futures declined. It is advisable to view the market from a volatile perspective [3][25]. - The EPA's re - emphasis on increasing RVO has boosted the rebound of edible oils, but the short - term supply pressure remains unrelieved. For industrial silicon, it is advisable to take profit on previous long positions and look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies [4]. - EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased, and oil prices declined with a reduction in risk premium [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - NVIDIA's Q3 revenue accelerated by 62% year - on - year, and its Q4 revenue guidance also exceeded expectations. However, the Fed's internal officials have significant differences on a December rate cut, and the market's rate - cut expectation remains low. It is recommended to wait for the release of non - farm payroll data to see the market's new direction [11][12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed's meeting minutes show serious internal differences. Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher, but in the short term, there is a lack of direct positive factors for a new wave of upward movement. It is expected that gold prices will fluctuate widely around $4000, with increased long - short competition [14][15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Trump administration is trying to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine. The Fed's meeting minutes show that most officials tend not to cut rates, so a December rate cut is unlikely. The US dollar index is expected to rebound [16][17][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Ministry of Finance has advanced the allocation of part of the 2026 budget for urban affordable housing projects. The Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly higher with reduced trading volume, and technology stocks underperformed. It is recommended to reduce long positions instead of chasing the market [21][22][23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 310.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The bond market failed to break through the upper limit of the trading range and had adjustment pressure. With the stock market strengthening slightly, Treasury bond futures declined. It is recommended to view the market from a volatile perspective [24][25][26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - USDA reported that private exporters sold 330,000 tons of soybeans to China, and a 30,000 - ton shipment of Argentine soybean meal cleared customs in China. It is expected that futures prices will likely remain range - bound, and attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US and weather conditions in South American production areas [27][28][29]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The import cost of 24 - degree palm oil in South China has risen significantly. The EPA's re - emphasis on RVO has boosted the rebound of edible oils, but the short - term supply pressure remains. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance level of 9000 yuan/ton [30][31]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The workload of construction machinery increased in October, and the retail and wholesale of passenger cars from November 1 - 16 showed different trends. Steel prices are in a volatile pattern, and it is recommended to view them from a volatile perspective [32][33][34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Jujubes) - The price of jujubes in Xinjiang has slightly declined. The futures market is volatile. It is recommended to operate with caution and pay attention to upstream procurement [35][36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of corn starch has slightly decreased, and inventory has been reduced. It is expected that the price difference between 01 futures and rice flour will fluctuate, and it is advisable to conduct band trading [37][38]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The spot corn market shows a pattern of strength in the south and weakness in the north. In the short term, the near - month contracts may not experience a significant decline. It is recommended to wait and see, and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies for 03 and 05 contracts when the situation becomes clear [39][40][41]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The 2026 medium - and long - term coal contracts have been signed, with the supply guarantee ratio and long - term contract price basically the same as in 2025. It is expected that coal prices will continue to fluctuate around 800 yuan [42]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The production and sales of air conditioners in December are expected to decline. The fundamentals of iron ore remain stable with a volatile trend. Although the supply pressure is high and port inventories are increasing, the risk of a sharp decline is reduced [43]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - Tangrenshen terminated a fixed - increase project. In the short term, it is advisable to short - sell LH2601 and LH2603 on price rallies, and in the long term, pay attention to the opportunity to build long positions for LH2607 and distant - month contracts at low prices [44][45]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - From January to October 2025, solar power generation increased. The polysilicon spot price depends on the game between policy and fundamentals. It is expected to return to a volatile market, and attention should be paid to range - trading opportunities [46][48]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Organic silicon manufacturers plan to jointly reduce production and adjust prices. Although the price of industrial silicon has risen, the reduction in organic silicon production is negative for industrial silicon. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies [49][52][53]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead market shows a downward trend, and the trading volume of domestic lead contracts has decreased. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies and remain on the sidelines for arbitrage and cross - border trading [54]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc market is volatile, and domestic social inventories have decreased. It is recommended to manage positions well for long positions, continue to hold positive - spread arbitrage positions, and manage positions for cross - border arbitrage [55][56]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - A nickel - related transaction has occurred. The nickel market is fundamentally weak and technically bearish. In the short term, the price may continue to decline or rebound depending on production cuts. In the medium term, attention should be paid to Indonesia's supply - contraction actions [57][58][59]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Sigma has adjusted its lithium mine production. The lithium carbonate market has strong short - term support, but the demand is expected to weaken from the end of the year to Q1 2026. It is not recommended to chase long positions, and short - selling opportunities on price rallies can be considered [61][62][63]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased, and oil prices declined. It is expected to maintain a short - term volatile trend [64][65]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt has decreased, and the supply has tightened. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand decline, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short term [66][67]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - China's methanol port and production enterprise inventories have decreased, but the port inventory decline is due to low arrivals. It is recommended to hold short positions and add short positions on price rebounds, with a profit - taking target around 2000 yuan/ton [68][69]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - South Korea's pure benzene exports from November 1 - 10 showed certain trends. The styrene market is affected by external factors, and it is recommended to view it from a volatile perspective in the short term [70][71]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has been slightly adjusted. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The short - term market is expected to remain weak, and attention should be paid to whether supply reduction will occur due to profit compression [72][73][74]. 3.2.21 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Germany will impose a 23% tax on Chinese cross - border small packages. The container freight market is currently weak, but with the approaching long - term contract season, the price may be supported. It is recommended to view the market from a volatile range perspective and look for short - long opportunities for the 02 contract on price dips [75][76].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's October FOMC meeting minutes reveal strong divisions among officials regarding a potential interest rate cut in December, with increasing concerns that progress on inflation has stalled [2][3]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decisions - The Fed lowered rates by 25 basis points in the previous meeting, marking the second consecutive cut, with a 10-2 vote [3]. - Chairman Powell indicated that a December rate cut is not a "foregone conclusion" [3]. - Many officials expressed opposition to further cuts, fearing that the 2% inflation target progress has stagnated, which could lead to rising long-term inflation expectations [3]. Economic Outlook - Officials are concerned about the uncertainty in the economic outlook, particularly due to the government shutdown affecting economic assessments [4]. - The upcoming FOMC meeting on December 9-10 will determine the future interest rate policy [5]. Challenges Faced by the Fed - The Fed is currently facing multiple challenges, including interruptions in official data releases and conflicting signals from existing information [6]. - The absence of employment data prior to the next meeting adds to the uncertainty regarding monetary policy decisions [6]. Market Expectations - Investor expectations for a December rate cut have significantly decreased from over 90% to 32.8% [2][6]. - Macro strategist Boris Schlossberg noted that unless there are significant changes in the economic landscape, the likelihood of a rate cut in December is diminishing [7].

2025.11. 20 本文字数：1478，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 北京时间周四（20日）凌晨，美联储公布今年10月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）政策会议纪要。 纪要显示，美联储官员就12月是否降息存在 "强烈分歧的观点"，越来越多官员认为通胀下降的进展 已陷入停滞，可能对继续宽松持谨慎的观点。 截至记者发稿时，芝加哥商品交易所的美联储观察工具显示，12月10日降息概率跌至32.8%，较1个 月前的超90%大幅回落。 分歧巨大 官员们在会议中积极寻求折中方案：既要应对数据缺失的问题，又要权衡通胀上升与就业市场下滑的 双重风险，甚至警惕若市场对人工智能相关投资 "重新评估"，可能引发股市无序下跌的情况。 美联储就12月是否降息存在 "强烈分歧的观点"，越来越多官员担忧通胀下降的进展。 许多美联储官 员明确表示，希望美联储在12月维持利率稳定。这些官员称，进一步降息可能会增加高通胀黏性的 风险，还可能被误解为美联储对2%通胀目标的承诺不足。 与此同时，"多数"官员表示，利率可能会随着时间推移走低，但其中 "多位"官员称，他们不一定认为 12月降息是合适的。部分官员表示将等待数据出炉后再决定 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium, clarifying misconceptions about the Fed's inflation target and its monetary policy framework, particularly the abandonment of the average inflation targeting approach established in 2020 [1][5][15]. Summary by Sections Economic Conditions - Powell highlighted the recovery of the labor market post-pandemic, noting a decline in job growth to an average of 35,000 per month, significantly lower than the 168,000 per month in 2024 [1][3]. - The unemployment rate remains stable at 4.2%, but labor supply is shrinking, influenced by changes in immigration policy [1][3]. - Economic growth slowed to 1.2% in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% the previous year, with consumer spending also decreasing [1][3]. Inflation Insights - The total PCE index increased by 2.6% over the past 12 months, while core PCE rose by 2.9%, with a 1.1% rebound in commodity prices [3][5]. - Powell emphasized the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment, stating that current policy rates are 100 basis points lower than a year ago but still restrictive [3][5]. Policy Framework Update - Powell announced a shift in the monetary policy framework, moving away from the flexible average inflation target established in 2020, which allowed for periods of inflation below 2% to be compensated by higher inflation later [5][15]. - The new framework directly targets a 2% inflation rate annually, removing the compensatory mechanism due to the challenges posed by high inflation during the pandemic [5][15]. - Powell reiterated that the 2% target remains a cornerstone for price stability and supports flexible economic decision-making [5][15]. Miscommunication and Market Reaction - A misleading screenshot circulated on social media, suggesting that the Fed had completely abandoned the 2% inflation target, leading to widespread panic and speculation about a potential dollar collapse [5][7]. - The misinformation gained traction, particularly in the cryptocurrency community, with many interpreting it as a bullish signal for Bitcoin [7][9]. - Following Powell's speech, the stock market initially dropped by 0.5% but rebounded the next day, indicating a mixed market reaction to the news [7][9]. Conclusion and Future Outlook - The event highlighted the importance of accurate information dissemination in the digital age, as the rapid spread of misinformation can significantly impact market confidence [9][20]. - Powell's commitment to a transparent review of the Fed's framework every five years aims to maintain clarity and stability in monetary policy [9][20]. - Overall, the adjustments made by the Fed are seen as a response to lessons learned from the pandemic, with a focus on maintaining price stability and avoiding prolonged high inflation [20].

Group 1 - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, stated that the bank will carefully analyze various data before deciding on monetary policy [1] - The Bank of Japan has informed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi that it is adjusting monetary support to stabilize the achievement of the 2% inflation target [1] - Discussions regarding foreign exchange issues took place with Prime Minister Takaichi, but no details were provided [1]

美联储，降息大消息 11月17日晚间，美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊表示，美联储在进一步降息时应谨慎行事，以免削弱其抗通胀的努力。他重申，随着利率接近中性水平，决 策者需要在行动上"缓步前行"。 杰斐逊说，在2025年迄今为止两次降息25个基点之后，美联储当前的政策立场"仍然具有一定限制性，但已经更接近中性水平"。 杰斐逊的观点具有一定的风向标意义，因为他的立场通常与美联储主席鲍威尔高（301251）度一致。 他指出，实现美联储2%的通胀目标的工作似乎已经停滞，这可能反映了关税的影响。 在谈到政策前景时，杰斐逊表示，他将以数据为指引，在每一次议息会议上逐次作出决定。 18日凌晨，美联储理事沃勒重申，美联储应该在12月会议上再次降息，理由是美国劳动力市场疲软以及货币政策在伤害中低收入消费者。 "由于基本通胀接近联邦公开市场委员会的目标且有证据显示劳动力市场疲软，我支持在12月会议上再次将政策利率降低25个基点。本周晚些时候的9月就 业报告或未来几周的任何其他数据，都不太可能改变我的观点。"沃勒说。 据CME"美联储观察"，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为42.9%，维持利率不变的概率为57.1%。 伯克希尔重仓买 ...

Core Viewpoint - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has fluctuated significantly, influenced by government shutdowns and inflation concerns, leading to uncertainty in monetary policy direction [2][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance on Rate Cuts - Kansas City Fed President George Schmidt reiterated opposition to rate cuts, citing persistent high inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 3% year-on-year, well above the Fed's 2% target [3]. - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan expressed skepticism about supporting a rate cut unless there is convincing evidence of a faster-than-expected decline in inflation or significant labor market deterioration [3][5]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasized the need for stable monetary policy until clear evidence shows inflation nearing the 2% target, highlighting the risks of prioritizing inflation stability over employment [5]. Group 2: Diverging Opinions within the FOMC - There are currently four members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) leaning towards a wait-and-see approach, with concerns about the current interest rate being closer to neutral rather than overly tight [6]. - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed unease about a potential rate cut due to the lack of official data caused by the government shutdown, warning against premature easing in the face of persistent inflation [6]. - Boston Fed President Susan Collins stated that the threshold for additional easing is high due to ongoing inflation concerns, suggesting that maintaining current rates may be appropriate given the uncertainty [6]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Predictions - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has dropped to 44%, indicating a diminishing likelihood of further easing unless significant economic changes occur [7]. - Analysts from Bank of America and Nomura predict that the Fed will likely hold rates steady in December, reflecting the internal divisions and inflationary pressures [8].

因美联储官员发表鹰派言论，打压12月降息预期，现货黄金、现货白银周五回吐早前涨幅，双双跳水 了！ 而就在24小时内，现货黄金曾站上4210美元/盎司，一日内黄金狂泻180美元，日内跌幅超过3%。 截至记者发稿，现货黄金报4082.159美元/盎司，日内跌2.13%。 （原标题：美联储官员发表鹰派言论 黄金、白银大跳水） 同时，现货白银日内大跌超4%，失守51美元/盎司，现报50.517美元/盎司。 【导读】现货黄金、现货白银大跳水，现货黄金失守4040美元/盎司 美联储12月维持利率不变概率升至54.2% 11月15日凌晨，现货黄金失守4040美元/盎司，最低报4031.82美元/盎司。 当地时间周五，美联储洛根表示她很难支持12月再次降息。洛根称："当我展望12月会议时，我认为很 难支持再次降息，除非我们有令人信服的证据表明通胀下降的速度确实快于我的预期，或者我们看到劳 动力市场不只是逐渐降温。通过降息向劳动力市场提供更多预防性保障并不合适。" 此前洛根曾支持9月降息，但认为10月本倾向于按兵不动。因为她担心通胀过高，趋向上升，要达到美 联储的2%目标需要太长时间。 美联储卡什卡利此前表示，并不支持美联储上 ...

【导读】现货黄金、现货白银大跳水，现货黄金失守4040美元/盎司 中国基金报张舟 因美联储官员发表鹰派言论，打压12月降息预期，现货黄金、现货白银周五回吐早前涨幅，双双跳水了！ 11月15日凌晨，现货黄金失守4040美元/盎司，最低报4031.82美元/盎司。 而就在24小时内，现货黄金曾站上4210美元/盎司，一日内黄金狂泻180美元，日内跌幅超过3%。 同时，现货白银日内大跌超4%，失守51美元/盎司，现报50.517美元/盎司。 截至记者发稿，现货黄金报4082.159美元/盎司，日内跌2.13%。 美联储12月维持利率不变概率升至54.2% 消息面上，美联储官员对政策前景的表态，让市场对美联储可能不会在下一次会议上降息的担忧日益加剧。 据CME"美联储观察"，美联储12月维持利率不变的概率大幅攀升，目前已经升至50%以上，达54.2%。 而12月份降息25个基点的概率已从一个月前的94.4%持续下降，降至45.8%。 10 12月 31 12月 96.1925 ZQZ5 60,131 204,411 2025 2025 Target Rate Probabilities for 10 12月 2025 ...

日韩股市大跌 11月14日，亚太股市主要股指集体低开。其中日经225指数跌1.3%，韩国KOSPI指数跌2.74%。 A股方面，早盘震荡分化，截至午盘，沪指跌0.16%，深成指跌1.1%，创业板指跌1.74%。沪深两市半日 成交额1.23万亿，较上个交易日缩量257亿。全市场超2800只个股上涨。 板块方面，海南、燃气、医药、福建等板块涨幅居前，存储芯片、CPO等板块跌幅居前。 具体来看，福建板块持续拉升，平潭发展（000592）、中国武夷（000797）等10余股涨停。海南板块快 速走强，海马汽车（000572）11天7板。流感概念股延续强势，金迪克5天3板，众生药业（002317）走 出3天2板。银行板块逆势上扬，工行、农行再创历史新高。 零售板块短线拉升，东百集团（600693）8天6板，家家悦（603708）、国光连锁（605188）、中百集团 （000759）、三江购物（601116）、汇嘉时代（603101）等纷纷走高。消息面上，国家统计局发布的数 据显示，10月份，社会消费品零售总额为46291亿元，同比增长2.9%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售 额42036亿元，增长4.0%。1—10月份，社 ...