数据显示，8月酒店价格同比上涨7.6%，显著高于7月的5.4%。日本央行指出，这一上涨反映出入境旅 游需求保持稳健。 日本央行在2024年结束了实施长达十年的大规模货币刺激计划，并于2025年1月将短期政策利率上调至 0.5%。央行当时表示，此举基于对日本即将长期实现2%通胀目标的判断。 截至目前，日本消费者通胀率已连续三年超过2%。日本央行近期表示，若经济持续温和复苏，准备进 一步提高借贷成本。 央行认为，劳动力成本上升有助于维持通胀率在2%左右的目标水平。8月服务业PPI的继续上行，为这 一观点提供了数据支持。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京9月25日电日本央行25日公布数据显示，8月日本服务业生产者物价指数（PPI）同比上涨 2.7%，高于7月经修正后的2.6%。该指标追踪企业间相互收取的服务费用，被视为服务业通胀的领先指 标。 ...

Core Insights - The Bank of Japan reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the service sector increased by 2.7% year-on-year in August, up from a revised 2.6% in July, indicating a trend of rising service sector inflation [1] - Hotel prices surged by 7.6% year-on-year in August, significantly higher than the 5.4% increase in July, reflecting robust inbound tourism demand [1] - The Bank of Japan concluded its decade-long large-scale monetary stimulus program in 2024 and plans to raise the short-term policy interest rate to 0.5% in January 2025, based on the expectation of achieving a long-term inflation target of 2% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The precious metals market remains strong due to expectations of future US liquidity easing, but there are still risks of stagflation in the US and geopolitical conflicts. In the long - term, there is a tendency for global asset allocation to shift towards gold, and short - term fluctuations can be dealt with by a low - buying strategy [2][3]. - The copper market is affected by macro factors and fundamentals. The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and domestic production has declined. The consumption is weak in the peak season, and short - term copper prices are expected to be in a high - level consolidation [5][9][11]. - The alumina market shows a weakening trend. The domestic and overseas spot prices are falling, and the import window is slightly open. The bauxite in Guinea has an incremental expectation, and the fundamentals are weak [13][16]. - The casting aluminum alloy market has a stable and slightly strong alloy ingot spot price. The enterprises in some regions are preparing raw materials for the National Day holiday, and the downstream demand is picking up [18]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is affected by macro factors and supply - demand. The price is expected to be weak in the short term until the consumption side improves significantly [22][25]. - The zinc market may maintain a slight surplus in September. The domestic refined zinc supply may decrease slightly, and the downstream has a replenishment expectation, but the amplitude is limited. The overseas inventory reduction may support the price, but attention should be paid to the overseas delivery situation [27][30]. - The lead market has mixed long and short factors. The supply may increase, and the downstream may stock up before the holiday. The lead price is expected to oscillate at a high level [32][34]. - The nickel market is slightly boosted by the Indonesian policy, but the impact on the supply is limited. The net import is expected to decline, and the price will maintain a wide - range oscillation [36][37]. - The stainless steel market has a supply pressure as the production has increased significantly in September, but the inventory is slowly decreasing, and the cost support is strong. It is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [39][41]. - The industrial silicon market has a "low - at - both - ends, high - in - the - middle" inventory structure. The production of polysilicon in October and market sentiment have a greater impact on the price. It is recommended to participate in long positions [43]. - The polysilicon market has a short - term negative impact on the futures due to the rumor of production resumption. The best strategy is to participate in long positions after the price correction [45][46][47]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a stalemate. The supply increment is limited in the short term, and the demand is strong. The price may oscillate strongly in the short term but will generally maintain an oscillating pattern [48][51][52]. - The tin market has a high - level oscillation. The supply is still tight, and the demand is sluggish. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [57][58]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold hit a new high above $3790 and then fell back, closing up 0.46% at $3764.02 per ounce. London silver first rose and then fell, closing down 0.07% at $44.02 per ounce. The Shanghai gold and silver futures contracts also had corresponding price changes [2]. - The US dollar index oscillated above 97, closing down 0.08% at 97.22. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell to 4.11%. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was in a high - level consolidation, closing at 7.1119 [2]. Important资讯 - The Fed officials had different views on interest rates. Powell thought the policy rate was still slightly restrictive, and the market expected further interest rate cuts. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October and December was high [2]. - The US September PMI data showed that the economy had some resilience. Geopolitical conflicts also had an impact on the market [2]. Logic Analysis - The market expected future US liquidity easing, but there were still stagflation risks and geopolitical conflicts. The precious metals maintained a strong trend, but there were profit - taking signs at high levels [3]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a low - buying strategy. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Use collar call options [3]. Copper Market Review - The night - session Shanghai copper 2511 contract closed at 79,970 yuan per ton, up 0.04%. The LME copper closed at $9,993.5 per ton, down 0.08% [5]. - The LME copper inventory decreased by 400 tons to 144,900 tons, and the COMEX copper inventory increased by 1,511 tons to 318,200 tons [5]. Important资讯 - Diplomatic activities were carried out between China and the US. Powell warned about the Fed's dual mission and implied that interest rates were still restrictive [5]. - There were differences within the Fed on future monetary policies. Southern Copper expected stable copper production in Peru this year and had some project plans [5][7][8]. Logic Analysis - Macro factors indicated that interest rates were still restrictive, and the market followed the Fed's statements. Fundamentally, the supply of copper concentrates was tight, and domestic production declined. The consumption was weak in the peak season [9]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term copper prices will be in a high - level consolidation. - Arbitrage: Hold long - short cross - market arbitrage positions. - Options: Wait and see [11]. Alumina Market Review - The night - session alumina 2601 contract decreased by 18 yuan to 2,881 yuan per ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased [13]. Important资讯 - There were some spot transactions in different regions, and the prices decreased. The national alumina production capacity operation increased slightly, and the Australian alumina price decreased. The import and export volume of alumina in August had corresponding changes [13][14]. Logic Analysis - The domestic and overseas spot prices of alumina were falling, and the import window was slightly open. The bauxite in Guinea had an incremental expectation, and the fundamentals were weak [16]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The alumina price will run weakly. - Arbitrage: Conduct reverse calendar spread arbitrage. - Options: Wait and see [16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night - session casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 40 yuan to 20,270 yuan per ton. The spot prices in different regions were stable [18]. Important资讯 - A policy on standardizing investment promotion affected the recycled aluminum industry. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots changed, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange launched the standard warehouse receipt generation business for casting aluminum alloy [18]. Trading Logic - Some enterprises in Henan, Jiangxi, and Anhui were preparing raw materials for the National Day holiday. The downstream demand was picking up, and the alloy ingot spot price was stable and slightly strong [18]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The aluminum alloy futures price will oscillate weakly following the aluminum price. - Arbitrage: Long AD and short AL. - Options: Wait and see [20]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract decreased by 15 yuan to 20,670 yuan per ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased [22]. Important资讯 - The euro - zone September manufacturing PMI fell into the contraction range, and the US manufacturing PMI was still in the growth range. The electrolytic aluminum inventory in the main markets decreased. An electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia was expected to be put into production in stages. The import and export volume of aluminum ingots in August had corresponding changes [22][23]. Trading Logic - The Fed was cautious about further interest rate cuts. The European manufacturing PMI was in the contraction range. Domestically, attention should be paid to the downstream's inventory - building sentiment and holiday plans [25]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The aluminum price will be weak in the short term until the consumption side improves. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [25]. Zinc Market Review - The overnight LME zinc market decreased by 0.36% to $2,889.5 per ton. The Shanghai zinc 2511 contract decreased by 0.09% to 21,935 yuan per ton [27]. - The spot price in Shanghai was in a certain range, and the trading was not active [27]. Important资讯 - The domestic zinc inventory decreased in some regions and increased in others. Affected by Typhoon "Hagasa", the operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises in Guangdong was expected to decline [27][28]. Logic Analysis - The domestic refined zinc supply in September may decrease slightly, but the monthly output was still at a relatively high level. The downstream enterprises bought at low prices, and the inventory decreased slightly. The downstream had a replenishment expectation before the National Day, but the amplitude was limited. The overseas inventory reduction may support the price, but attention should be paid to the overseas delivery situation [28][30]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term zinc price will oscillate in a range. Pay attention to the LME inventory change. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [30]. Lead Market Review - The overnight LME lead market decreased by 0.03% to $1,999 per ton. The Shanghai lead 2511 contract decreased by 0.2% to 17,090 yuan per ton [32]. - The SMM1 lead average price decreased, and the price difference between different regions and types of lead existed. The transaction of recycled refined lead was under pressure [32]. Important资讯 - The SMM lead ingot social inventory decreased. The import volume of lead concentrates in August increased, and the import and export volume of lead - acid batteries decreased [32][33][34]. Logic Analysis - The lead price strengthened, and the loss of domestic recycled lead smelting was repaired. Some enterprises planned to resume production. The downstream lead - storage enterprises may stock up before the holiday. The lead price was expected to oscillate at a high level [34]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term lead price will oscillate at a high level. Try short positions at high prices. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [34]. Nickel Market Review - The overnight LME nickel price increased to $15,340 per ton, and the inventory increased. The Shanghai nickel main contract increased to 121,740 yuan per ton [36]. - The spot premiums of different types of nickel remained unchanged [36]. Important资讯 - Indonesia punished some mining companies, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo was considering extending the cobalt export ban [36]. Logic Analysis - The nickel price was slightly boosted by Indonesia's policy, but the impact on the supply was limited. The net import of refined nickel decreased, and the LME inventory was expected to increase. The positive news from Indonesia and the Philippines supported the nickel ore price, but the upward momentum was insufficient. The nickel price will oscillate in a wide range [37]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [37]. Stainless Steel Market Review - The main stainless steel SS2511 contract increased to 12,940 yuan per ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range [39]. Important资讯 - Affected by Typhoon "Hagasa", Foshan implemented "five - stop" measures [39]. Logic Analysis - The stainless steel production in September increased significantly, but the demand did not show seasonal peak - season characteristics. The supply pressure existed, but the inventory was slowly decreasing, and the cost support was strong. The price was expected to oscillate [41]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillate in a wide range. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [41]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - The Tuesday industrial silicon futures main contract oscillated narrowly, closing down 2.3% at 8,925 yuan per ton. The spot price was stable [43]. Important资讯 - The export volume of industrial silicon products in August increased year - on - year and month - on - month [43]. Comprehensive Analysis - The industrial silicon inventory structure was "low - at - both - ends, high - in - the - middle". The production of polysilicon in October and market sentiment had a greater impact on the price. It was recommended to participate in long positions [43]. Strategy - Unilateral: Participate in long positions. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options. - Arbitrage: None [43]. Polysilicon Market Review - The Tuesday polysilicon futures main contract decreased and then rebounded, closing at 50,260 yuan per ton, down 2.745. The spot price was stable [45][46]. Important资讯 - The August全社会用电量 data was released, showing an increase year - on - year [46]. Comprehensive Analysis - The rumor of polysilicon production resumption in October was a short - term negative factor. The spot price was rising, and the best strategy was to participate in long positions after the price correction [46][47]. Strategy - Unilateral: Participate in long positions after sufficient price correction [47]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2511 contract decreased to 73,660 yuan per ton, and the index position decreased. The GQEX warehouse receipt increased. The spot prices of electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate were stable [48]. Important资讯 - India had requirements for the procurement of components, battery cells, and silicon wafers in the ALMM project. Chile submitted the lease agreement for lithium production [49][51]. Logic Analysis - The lithium price was in a stalemate. The short - term supply increment was limited, and the demand was strong. The price may oscillate strongly in the short term but will generally maintain an oscillating pattern [51]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillate in a wide range. - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage between 2511 and 2512 contracts. - Options: Sell wide - straddle options [49][52]. Tin Market Review - The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 271,090 yuan per ton, up 0.31%. The LME tin inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory decreased significantly [54][57]. - The Shanghai metal network spot tin ingot average price decreased. The spot trading atmosphere improved, but the downstream demand was still limited [54]. Important资讯 - Diplomatic activities were carried out between China and the US. Powell warned about the Fed's dual mission, and the Fed officials had different views on interest rates [56]. - An Indonesian tin ore producer planned to increase production next year, and a US tin smelter started construction [57]. Logic Analysis - The Fed had differences on future monetary policies. The tin ore supply was still tight, but there were short - term improvement signs. The demand was sluggish, and the consumption electronics and home appliance industries only slightly recovered. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [57]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a high - level oscillation. - Options: Wait and see [58].

欧洲央行执行委员会成员奇波洛尼(Piero Cipollone)表示，目前利率处于合适水平，他不认为通胀在任何 方向上存在重大威胁。奇波洛尼在接受采访时表示，尽管主要由贸易引发的不确定性存在，但欧洲经济 依然"相当有韧性"。他表示，本季度出现放缓后，增长应会恢复此前的模式，"我们认为通胀风险非常 均衡。我们处在一个良好位置。我是说，我们正好在目标水平上。未来两年我们都会接近目标"。 目前，随着通胀达到2%的目标，且尽管美国加征关税带来阻力，欧元区20国的产出仍在持续增长。政 策制定者似乎乐于暂时将借贷成本维持在当前水平。不过，欧洲央行行长拉加德尚未就价格风险的平衡 发表评论。 虽然投资者和分析师已排除了将存款机制利率从当前2%水平进一步下调的可能性，但部分官员希望在 年底重新评估形势。届时，他们将在12月开会，获得新一轮经济预测，这将更清晰地揭示美国总统特朗 普加征关税的影响、并帮助他们判断当前利率水平是否低到足以可持续地实现2%的通胀目标。 在日前哥本哈根举行的欧洲财长会议期间，与会的欧洲央行决策者们表示，他们有信心认为目前2%的 存款机制利率适合实现该目标。但在如何评估经济前景面临的风险严重程度、以及对通 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve may have acted too slowly in supporting the labor market, and if demand weakens leading to layoffs, it may need to accelerate interest rate cuts [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - Vice Chair Bowman indicated that the Fed should focus on potential issues in the labor market and is less concerned about inflation risks [2]. - Bowman expressed that the current slowdown in hiring signals a need for decisive action to address declining labor market vitality [2]. - The Fed recently lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, marking a shift in focus towards employment market risks [4]. Group 2: Diverging Opinions Among Officials - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee emphasized caution regarding further rate cuts due to persistent inflation above target levels [3]. - Goolsbee noted that while the labor market appears stable, the Fed should not rush into aggressive easing measures [3]. - There is an ongoing debate among over 12 Fed officials regarding the pace and magnitude of potential rate cuts in light of labor market conditions [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Bowman mentioned that if economic conditions develop as expected, the recent rate cut should be seen as the first step towards returning the federal funds rate to a neutral level [3]. - The median projections from the latest dot plot suggest two more 25 basis point cuts this year, but there is significant disagreement among policymakers [3].

The Chicago Fed introducing new labor market indicators this morning that com combine private sector data with official labor statistics for a real time view of hiring layoffs uh and other job information. And join us now Chicago Fed President Austin Goulby. We How you doing, Mr.. President. It's good good to have you on. We got some new data.I'm excited. And you know why I like it. because, you know, say what you will about, you know, the big kurfuffle with the the BLS firing and all that stuff.It did high ...

美联储古尔斯比：我们并未调整通胀目标。 来源：滚动播报 ...

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 美国芝加哥联储主席Goolsbee（2025年FOMC票委）：美联储的通胀目标仍为2%，必须回归目标。 我 认为美联储的政策具有温和的限制性。 中性利率比当前利率低100-125个基点。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials released hawkish statements, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and a significant increase in gold prices, which reached a new historical high of $3748.53 per ounce, marking a maximum increase of over $60 [2] - Spot silver also hit a new high since May 2011, closing at $44.047 per ounce, up 2.38% [2] - The US stock market saw all three major indices close higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.14%, S&P 500 up 0.44%, and Nasdaq up 0.70% [3] Group 2 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a 1.21% increase in gold T+D, closing at 845.21 yuan per gram, while silver T+D rose by 1.47% to 10,280.0 yuan per kilogram [4] - The US Treasury yields saw a slight increase, with the 2-year yield rising by 2.3 basis points to 3.605% and the 10-year yield up by 1.1 basis points to 4.150% [2][5] Group 3 - Several Federal Reserve officials expressed caution regarding further interest rate cuts due to persistent inflation above the 2% target, indicating a need for careful consideration before any policy changes [5] - The effective federal funds rate is expected to rise moderately, reflecting a faster-than-expected consumption of excess reserves by banks [5][7]

米兰的观点与其他美联储官员存在显著差异。9月22日，圣路易斯联储主席穆萨勒姆明确表示，美联储 进一步降息的空间有限，若通胀风险增加，将不再支持任何宽松举措。他在上周虽支持了25个基点的降 息，但强调通胀率仍比美联储2%的目标高出近一个百分点，过度降息可能导致公众对通胀回归目标的 信心动摇，继而引发更严重的经济代价。 这种担忧在克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克的发言中得到呼应。她指出，通胀已连续四年半高于目标，且可能 持续数年，因此，美联储在撤销限制性政策时需"非常谨慎"，避免经济重新过热。 哈玛克甚至认为，当前利率仅略高于中性水平，过早放松可能使抗通胀努力前功尽弃。 尽管上周美联储宣布降息25个基点，但美联储内部对于降息存在巨大分歧。 当地时间9月22日，由特朗普新任命的美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）在纽约经济俱乐部活动 上的书面发言中表示，当前利率过高，未来数月应继续大幅降息保护美国劳动力市场，年内累计降息幅 度需再达125个基点。 这是米兰上周宣誓就任美联储理事后的首次政策演讲。 米兰指出，今年以来的关税政策、移民限制和税收政策，已压低了中性利率（即既不会刺激也不会拖累 经济的政策利率水平）。 ...