1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The precious metals market remains strong due to expectations of future US liquidity easing, but there are still risks of stagflation in the US and geopolitical conflicts. In the long - term, there is a tendency for global asset allocation to shift towards gold, and short - term fluctuations can be dealt with by a low - buying strategy [2][3]. - The copper market is affected by macro factors and fundamentals. The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and domestic production has declined. The consumption is weak in the peak season, and short - term copper prices are expected to be in a high - level consolidation [5][9][11]. - The alumina market shows a weakening trend. The domestic and overseas spot prices are falling, and the import window is slightly open. The bauxite in Guinea has an incremental expectation, and the fundamentals are weak [13][16]. - The casting aluminum alloy market has a stable and slightly strong alloy ingot spot price. The enterprises in some regions are preparing raw materials for the National Day holiday, and the downstream demand is picking up [18]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is affected by macro factors and supply - demand. The price is expected to be weak in the short term until the consumption side improves significantly [22][25]. - The zinc market may maintain a slight surplus in September. The domestic refined zinc supply may decrease slightly, and the downstream has a replenishment expectation, but the amplitude is limited. The overseas inventory reduction may support the price, but attention should be paid to the overseas delivery situation [27][30]. - The lead market has mixed long and short factors. The supply may increase, and the downstream may stock up before the holiday. The lead price is expected to oscillate at a high level [32][34]. - The nickel market is slightly boosted by the Indonesian policy, but the impact on the supply is limited. The net import is expected to decline, and the price will maintain a wide - range oscillation [36][37]. - The stainless steel market has a supply pressure as the production has increased significantly in September, but the inventory is slowly decreasing, and the cost support is strong. It is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [39][41]. - The industrial silicon market has a "low - at - both - ends, high - in - the - middle" inventory structure. The production of polysilicon in October and market sentiment have a greater impact on the price. It is recommended to participate in long positions [43]. - The polysilicon market has a short - term negative impact on the futures due to the rumor of production resumption. The best strategy is to participate in long positions after the price correction [45][46][47]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a stalemate. The supply increment is limited in the short term, and the demand is strong. The price may oscillate strongly in the short term but will generally maintain an oscillating pattern [48][51][52]. - The tin market has a high - level oscillation. The supply is still tight, and the demand is sluggish. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [57][58]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold hit a new high above $3790 and then fell back, closing up 0.46% at $3764.02 per ounce. London silver first rose and then fell, closing down 0.07% at $44.02 per ounce. The Shanghai gold and silver futures contracts also had corresponding price changes [2]. - The US dollar index oscillated above 97, closing down 0.08% at 97.22. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell to 4.11%. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was in a high - level consolidation, closing at 7.1119 [2]. Important资讯 - The Fed officials had different views on interest rates. Powell thought the policy rate was still slightly restrictive, and the market expected further interest rate cuts. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October and December was high [2]. - The US September PMI data showed that the economy had some resilience. Geopolitical conflicts also had an impact on the market [2]. Logic Analysis - The market expected future US liquidity easing, but there were still stagflation risks and geopolitical conflicts. The precious metals maintained a strong trend, but there were profit - taking signs at high levels [3]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a low - buying strategy. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Use collar call options [3]. Copper Market Review - The night - session Shanghai copper 2511 contract closed at 79,970 yuan per ton, up 0.04%. The LME copper closed at $9,993.5 per ton, down 0.08% [5]. - The LME copper inventory decreased by 400 tons to 144,900 tons, and the COMEX copper inventory increased by 1,511 tons to 318,200 tons [5]. Important资讯 - Diplomatic activities were carried out between China and the US. Powell warned about the Fed's dual mission and implied that interest rates were still restrictive [5]. - There were differences within the Fed on future monetary policies. Southern Copper expected stable copper production in Peru this year and had some project plans [5][7][8]. Logic Analysis - Macro factors indicated that interest rates were still restrictive, and the market followed the Fed's statements. Fundamentally, the supply of copper concentrates was tight, and domestic production declined. The consumption was weak in the peak season [9]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term copper prices will be in a high - level consolidation. - Arbitrage: Hold long - short cross - market arbitrage positions. - Options: Wait and see [11]. Alumina Market Review - The night - session alumina 2601 contract decreased by 18 yuan to 2,881 yuan per ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased [13]. Important资讯 - There were some spot transactions in different regions, and the prices decreased. The national alumina production capacity operation increased slightly, and the Australian alumina price decreased. The import and export volume of alumina in August had corresponding changes [13][14]. Logic Analysis - The domestic and overseas spot prices of alumina were falling, and the import window was slightly open. The bauxite in Guinea had an incremental expectation, and the fundamentals were weak [16]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The alumina price will run weakly. - Arbitrage: Conduct reverse calendar spread arbitrage. - Options: Wait and see [16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night - session casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 40 yuan to 20,270 yuan per ton. The spot prices in different regions were stable [18]. Important资讯 - A policy on standardizing investment promotion affected the recycled aluminum industry. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots changed, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange launched the standard warehouse receipt generation business for casting aluminum alloy [18]. Trading Logic - Some enterprises in Henan, Jiangxi, and Anhui were preparing raw materials for the National Day holiday. The downstream demand was picking up, and the alloy ingot spot price was stable and slightly strong [18]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The aluminum alloy futures price will oscillate weakly following the aluminum price. - Arbitrage: Long AD and short AL. - Options: Wait and see [20]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract decreased by 15 yuan to 20,670 yuan per ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased [22]. Important资讯 - The euro - zone September manufacturing PMI fell into the contraction range, and the US manufacturing PMI was still in the growth range. The electrolytic aluminum inventory in the main markets decreased. An electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia was expected to be put into production in stages. The import and export volume of aluminum ingots in August had corresponding changes [22][23]. Trading Logic - The Fed was cautious about further interest rate cuts. The European manufacturing PMI was in the contraction range. Domestically, attention should be paid to the downstream's inventory - building sentiment and holiday plans [25]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The aluminum price will be weak in the short term until the consumption side improves. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [25]. Zinc Market Review - The overnight LME zinc market decreased by 0.36% to $2,889.5 per ton. The Shanghai zinc 2511 contract decreased by 0.09% to 21,935 yuan per ton [27]. - The spot price in Shanghai was in a certain range, and the trading was not active [27]. Important资讯 - The domestic zinc inventory decreased in some regions and increased in others. Affected by Typhoon "Hagasa", the operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises in Guangdong was expected to decline [27][28]. Logic Analysis - The domestic refined zinc supply in September may decrease slightly, but the monthly output was still at a relatively high level. The downstream enterprises bought at low prices, and the inventory decreased slightly. The downstream had a replenishment expectation before the National Day, but the amplitude was limited. The overseas inventory reduction may support the price, but attention should be paid to the overseas delivery situation [28][30]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term zinc price will oscillate in a range. Pay attention to the LME inventory change. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [30]. Lead Market Review - The overnight LME lead market decreased by 0.03% to $1,999 per ton. The Shanghai lead 2511 contract decreased by 0.2% to 17,090 yuan per ton [32]. - The SMM1 lead average price decreased, and the price difference between different regions and types of lead existed. The transaction of recycled refined lead was under pressure [32]. Important资讯 - The SMM lead ingot social inventory decreased. The import volume of lead concentrates in August increased, and the import and export volume of lead - acid batteries decreased [32][33][34]. Logic Analysis - The lead price strengthened, and the loss of domestic recycled lead smelting was repaired. Some enterprises planned to resume production. The downstream lead - storage enterprises may stock up before the holiday. The lead price was expected to oscillate at a high level [34]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term lead price will oscillate at a high level. Try short positions at high prices. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [34]. Nickel Market Review - The overnight LME nickel price increased to $15,340 per ton, and the inventory increased. The Shanghai nickel main contract increased to 121,740 yuan per ton [36]. - The spot premiums of different types of nickel remained unchanged [36]. Important资讯 - Indonesia punished some mining companies, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo was considering extending the cobalt export ban [36]. Logic Analysis - The nickel price was slightly boosted by Indonesia's policy, but the impact on the supply was limited. The net import of refined nickel decreased, and the LME inventory was expected to increase. The positive news from Indonesia and the Philippines supported the nickel ore price, but the upward momentum was insufficient. The nickel price will oscillate in a wide range [37]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [37]. Stainless Steel Market Review - The main stainless steel SS2511 contract increased to 12,940 yuan per ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range [39]. Important资讯 - Affected by Typhoon "Hagasa", Foshan implemented "five - stop" measures [39]. Logic Analysis - The stainless steel production in September increased significantly, but the demand did not show seasonal peak - season characteristics. The supply pressure existed, but the inventory was slowly decreasing, and the cost support was strong. The price was expected to oscillate [41]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillate in a wide range. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [41]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - The Tuesday industrial silicon futures main contract oscillated narrowly, closing down 2.3% at 8,925 yuan per ton. The spot price was stable [43]. Important资讯 - The export volume of industrial silicon products in August increased year - on - year and month - on - month [43]. Comprehensive Analysis - The industrial silicon inventory structure was "low - at - both - ends, high - in - the - middle". The production of polysilicon in October and market sentiment had a greater impact on the price. It was recommended to participate in long positions [43]. Strategy - Unilateral: Participate in long positions. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options. - Arbitrage: None [43]. Polysilicon Market Review - The Tuesday polysilicon futures main contract decreased and then rebounded, closing at 50,260 yuan per ton, down 2.745. The spot price was stable [45][46]. Important资讯 - The August全社会用电量 data was released, showing an increase year - on - year [46]. Comprehensive Analysis - The rumor of polysilicon production resumption in October was a short - term negative factor. The spot price was rising, and the best strategy was to participate in long positions after the price correction [46][47]. Strategy - Unilateral: Participate in long positions after sufficient price correction [47]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2511 contract decreased to 73,660 yuan per ton, and the index position decreased. The GQEX warehouse receipt increased. The spot prices of electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate were stable [48]. Important资讯 - India had requirements for the procurement of components, battery cells, and silicon wafers in the ALMM project. Chile submitted the lease agreement for lithium production [49][51]. Logic Analysis - The lithium price was in a stalemate. The short - term supply increment was limited, and the demand was strong. The price may oscillate strongly in the short term but will generally maintain an oscillating pattern [51]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillate in a wide range. - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage between 2511 and 2512 contracts. - Options: Sell wide - straddle options [49][52]. Tin Market Review - The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 271,090 yuan per ton, up 0.31%. The LME tin inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory decreased significantly [54][57]. - The Shanghai metal network spot tin ingot average price decreased. The spot trading atmosphere improved, but the downstream demand was still limited [54]. Important资讯 - Diplomatic activities were carried out between China and the US. Powell warned about the Fed's dual mission, and the Fed officials had different views on interest rates [56]. - An Indonesian tin ore producer planned to increase production next year, and a US tin smelter started construction [57]. Logic Analysis - The Fed had differences on future monetary policies. The tin ore supply was still tight, but there were short - term improvement signs. The demand was sluggish, and the consumption electronics and home appliance industries only slightly recovered. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [57]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a high - level oscillation. - Options: Wait and see [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market remains strong. London gold has reached a new high of around $3,765, and London silver is close to its 14 - year high. Due to external market influence, Shanghai gold closed up 2% at 855.44 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 1.78% to 10,349 yuan/kilogram. With the US in a rate - cut cycle, potential fiscal issues in major overseas economies, and possible geopolitical conflicts, precious metals show long - term investment value. Short - term fluctuations can be treated with a low - buying strategy [3][8][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Precious metals: London gold reached around $3,765, and London silver stood at around $44. Shanghai gold closed up 2% at 855.44 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 1.78% to 10,349 yuan/kilogram [3]. - Dollar index: It fluctuated narrowly around 97.35 [4]. - US Treasury yields: The 10 - year yield dropped slightly to around 4.13% [5]. - RMB exchange rate: It also fluctuated narrowly around 7.113 [6]. Important Information - Fed views: Bostic believes there's little reason for further rate cuts this year; Musalem thinks the space for rate cuts is limited; Harker advocates caution in policy loosening; Milan believes the appropriate interest rate is around 2% and opposes adjusting the 2% inflation target [7]. - Fed watch: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in October is 10.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 89.8%. In December, the probability of unchanged rates is 1.7%, a 25 - basis - point cut is 23.1%, and a 50 - basis - point cut is 75.3% [7]. Logic Analysis - After the Fed cut rates by 25 bps last week as expected, with high expectations of two more cuts this year, the risk of stagflation in the US persists, and geopolitical conflicts may arise. Gold continued to rise after a short adjustment. Silver showed greater upward elasticity due to a more optimistic market sentiment, and the gold - silver ratio slightly recovered. The upcoming US PMI data may cause market fluctuations [8][10]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt a low - buying strategy [11]. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [12]. - Options: Consider a collar call option [13]. Data Reference - Dollar index and precious metals: There are charts showing the relationship between the dollar index and London gold and silver [15][16]. - Real yields and precious metals: Charts display the relationship between real yields and London gold and silver [18][22]. - Domestic and foreign futures: There are charts presenting the trends of domestic and foreign gold and silver futures [20][23]. - Futures and spot: Charts show the relationship between futures and spot prices of gold and silver [25][26]. - Domestic - foreign price differences: Charts illustrate the price differences between domestic and foreign gold and silver [29][31]. - Gold - silver ratio: There are charts showing the gold - silver ratio on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Comex [35][37]. - ETF holdings: Charts display the holdings of SPDR gold ETF and SLV silver ETF [39][41]. - Futures open interest: Charts show the open interest of gold and silver futures [42][43]. - Futures inventory: Charts present the inventory of gold and silver futures [48][44]. - Trading volume: Charts show the trading volume of Shanghai gold and silver [45][47]. - TD data: Charts display the deferred fees, delivery volumes of gold and silver TD [50][53][56]. - Treasury yields and inflation: Charts show the relationship between nominal interest rates, inflation expectations, real interest rates, and US Treasury yields [54].

Core Viewpoints - The current sentiment in the precious metals market remains bullish, with expectations of price increases, particularly for silver, amid a backdrop of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Analysis - Wengang Futures suggests maintaining a bullish outlook on precious metals prices, particularly silver, due to the anticipated rise in interest rate cut expectations following the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chairman [1] - Guotou Futures notes that the recent drop in initial jobless claims in the U.S. indicates a weaker precious metals market, with potential for a phase of consolidation as the Fed's dovish stance is less than expected [1][2] - Galaxy Futures highlights the persistent risk of stagflation in the U.S., which continues to provide a support base for precious metals prices despite recent market adjustments [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Capital.com analysts indicate that the market sentiment has cooled, with the Fed's lack of dovish guidance leading to increased yields and a stronger dollar, which may hinder gold prices from breaking above $3,700 per ounce [2] - Zaner Metals emphasizes that despite short-term volatility, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, supported by geopolitical risks and central banks' continued accumulation of gold [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of interest rate cuts is consolidated, and precious metals maintain their strong momentum. The weakening of the US labor market and the potential transmission of tariff impacts make it difficult to eliminate the "stagflation-like" risk, so precious metals are expected to continue their strong performance at high levels [3][7]. - The market's trading focus has shifted from tariff games to interest rate cut games. Trump's interference with the Fed aims to force early and rapid interest rate cuts, which may increase inflation in the medium and long term, and the precious metals market may be pricing in this factor [17][25]. - The US economy shows signs of slowdown, with GDP growth having some false prosperity, consumption weakening, PMI indicators weakening, and the labor market cooling down [35][44][52]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - In the week, the US dollar and the 10-year US Treasury yield were consolidating at low levels. Precious metals continued their upward momentum from last week, reaching new highs and consolidating near historical highs. Silver also followed the trend of gold. London gold and silver, as well as Shanghai gold and silver, all showed significant increases. The US dollar index was weak, and the 10-year US Treasury yield fell again [3]. - The market's focus this week was on the US inflation situation. The previous week's US non-farm payroll data indicated a further cooling of the job market, which promoted the market's expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates three times this year. This week's PPI unexpectedly did not fall, and CPI rebounded moderately, which was interpreted by the market as reducing the obstacles to interest rate cuts this year and consolidating the dovish market expectation. The improvement of market risk sentiment allowed silver to catch up with the rise of gold [3]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider holding previous long positions based on the 5-day moving average. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Bullish collar option strategy [9]. 3.2 Macro - level Data Tracking 3.2.1 Market Trading Mainline - The market's trading focus has shifted from tariff games to interest rate cut games. Trump has continuously pressured the Fed to cut interest rates, and the market's expectation of interest rate cuts has fluctuated with the release of economic data and policy developments [17][63][64]. 3.2.2 US Economic Situation - GDP: Although the second - quarter GDP growth was strong on the surface, a detailed analysis of sub - items showed that the growth was somewhat illusory. The sharp decline in imports in the second quarter increased the net export sub - item, while consumption and investment were weak [35]. - PMI: Both Markit and ISM manufacturing and service PMI indicators showed a weakening trend, indicating a slowdown in the US economic expansion [43][44]. - Employment: The US August non - farm payroll data was disappointing, with the number of new jobs falling short of expectations and the unemployment rate rising to a new high since October 2021, indicating a further cooling of the labor market [52]. - Inflation: The US August CPI increased moderately, and the PPI decreased, indicating that although Trump's tariff policy pushed up enterprise costs, enterprises avoided significant price increases last month [59]. 3.2.3 Market Interest Rate Cut Expectations - The market's current bet is that the Fed will cut interest rates three times this year, with the expected timing in September. The market's interest rate cut expectation has fluctuated with the performance of the US macro - economy and Trump's policies [63][64]. 3.3 Precious Metals Fundamental Data Tracking 3.3.1 Gold Supply and Demand - Supply: In the first half of 2025, the total global gold supply increased slightly by 1% year - on - year to 2423 tons, with a slight decrease in gold mine production and an increase in recycled gold [70]. - Demand: The total global gold demand in the first half of 2025 increased by 13% year - on - year to 2385 tons. Investment demand increased significantly by 117%, while gold jewelry consumption decreased by 18% [70]. - Central Bank Gold Purchases: Since 2022, global central banks have been on a gold - buying spree. China, Poland, Turkey, and India are among the active buyers. The reasons for central bank gold purchases include optimizing foreign exchange reserve structures, hedging geopolitical and economic uncertainties, and promoting currency internationalization [78][80]. 3.3.2 Silver Supply and Demand - Supply: In 2024, the global silver supply was 31573 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%. It is expected to increase by 2% in 2025 to 32055 tons. The supply is relatively stable due to the associated nature of silver production [82]. - Demand: In 2024, global silver demand was 36208 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. It is expected to be 35713 tons in 2025, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. The demand for photovoltaic silver, which has been a major factor affecting silver demand since 2022, is likely to slow down in 2025 due to limited growth space in the photovoltaic industry and the trend of reducing silver consumption [82]. - Inventory: Silver inventory has bottomed out and rebounded, and the supply - demand gap has also converged [82].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The implementation of reciprocal tariffs has led to significant market volatility, with the effective tax rate in the US reaching its highest point in nearly a century, at least 23% [2][4] - The tariffs are expected to increase inflation by approximately two percentage points, raising overall inflation to between 4% and 5%, which complicates the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates [8][11] - The market is currently facing liquidity shocks, stagflation risks, and concerns regarding the strength of the US dollar, which could impact GDP by at least 0.7 percentage points and reduce profit expectations to around 5% [11][12] Summary by Sections Impact of Reciprocal Tariffs - The tariffs have resulted in a uniform 10% baseline tariff on all trade partners, with some partners, like China, facing additional tariffs due to non-tariff barriers [2][4] - Market reactions include a sell-off of high-valuation stocks, a decline in US equities and the dollar, and a rise in bonds and gold due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [2][3][5] Future Monetary Policy Framework - Future monetary policy will need to address domestic liquidity and policy space, with central banks potentially taking measures to counteract market volatility caused by tariffs [6] - The liquidity risk can be monitored through indicators like the VIX index, with current issues primarily concentrated in the stock market [7] Inflation and Economic Growth - The tariffs are projected to push inflation higher, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions and increasing the risk of stagflation [8][11] - The weakening of the dollar is attributed to a combination of factors, including increased competition in the tech sector and the impact of tariffs on cross-border capital flows [9][10] Specific Industry Impacts - The tariffs will significantly affect export-oriented sectors in China, with an overall tariff level exceeding 70% for certain goods, leading to a need for fiscal support to mitigate profit losses [12] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to face pressure, with potential volatility increasing due to external challenges from the tariffs [13] Long-term Risks and Considerations - The report highlights three main risks: liquidity shocks, stagflation risks, and the influence of the dollar on global capital allocation [11] - The reciprocal tariffs may lead to a broader impact on global trade dynamics, affecting specialized supply chains and trade relationships [24]