因此，我的核心策略是：长期看多，但短期绝不追高；拥抱趋势，但必须敬畏波动。 对于已有持仓的 投资者，可以设好移动止盈，让利润奔跑。对于想上车的朋友，最好的策略是耐心等待一次像样的技术 回调，再分批布局。记住，在历史高位，风险管理远比盈利预测更重要。 那么，终极问题来了： 你认为黄金这轮史诗级牛市，最终会在一片狂热中筑顶，还是会开启一个以"千 美元"为单位上涨的全新纪元？你现在会选择"持金观望"，还是"逢高离场"？评论区亮出你的多空立 场！ 我是帮主郑重，关注我，在历史高点保持冷静思考。 看多的力量依旧强悍：全球央行年购金超千吨的格局未变；地缘"火药桶"此起彼伏；市场对美联储降息 的预期仍在。这些是托举黄金的"三座大山"。 但看空的信号也在闪烁：金价年涨幅已近70%，史诗级上涨本身就累积了巨大的获利盘；美元是否会阶 段反弹？地缘局势会否突然缓和？任何风吹草动都可能引发剧烈波动。 朋友们，黄金又双叒叕创历史新高了！价格已经飞到绝大多数人看不懂、更不敢追的高度。但老郑要 问：狂欢的顶点，究竟是趋势的起点，还是风险的极点？ ...

近日，中国（天津）自由贸易试验区管理委员会、天津市商务局、天津市地方金融管理局等6部门联合 发布《关于促进天津自贸试验区大宗商品交易场所高质量发展的若干措施》，明确支持大宗商品期现市 场联动发展，具体措施包括鼓励大宗商品交易场所在期货交易所设立报价专区，探索交割库合作与仓单 互认，为实体企业提供基差点价等联动服务。据笔者了解，近年来，浙江、大连、郑州、青岛、广西等 多地也陆续出台了一系列支持期现联动发展的政策，这些政策在顶层设计上既存在共性特征，又在路径 和策略上形成差异化布局。 第一，根本解决市场的"割裂"问题。所谓"割裂"，是指期货和现货两类交易场所在平台建设、交割库布 局、仓单互认以及数据互联互通等方面存在流动性阻滞，如流程割裂、服务割裂、信用割裂、监管割 裂、风险割裂等。要根本解决这些关键问题，必须要在知识、能力、产业链、核心平台等方面协同建 设：首先是全链路一体化管理，围绕现货合同，无缝集成客户、库存、资金收付、发票等现货管理，与 期货交易、结算、持仓等数据进行自动关联和对冲匹配；其次是智能化风险管理，建立覆盖客户、合 同、商品、仓库等多维度的风控模式，实时监控与期货结合的净风险敞口、基差变化等，建 ...

12月23日，大连商品交易所（下称大商所）在上海举办系列期权宣讲座谈会，多家产业企业、投资机构 及期货公司的相关代表出席会议，围绕系列期权服务实体经济模式进行了探讨，并就短期期权等新工具 的研究开发提出意见和建议。 这一设计精准契合了产业的短期风险管理需求。上海源耀农业公司参会代表认为，系列期权推出后，能 更好地匹配企业偏短期的现货头寸，在期限灵活性与成本控制方面的优势较常规期权更为突出。尤其是 对下游中小企业而言，受限于资金规模和专业能力，其难以开展标准化期货套期保值操作。在市场行情 波动加剧的背景下，系列期权、周期权等短期期权工具能够以更低的资金占用和更灵活的期限结构，帮 助企业实现风险对冲，是更贴合其经营实际的风险管理工具。 厦门国贸农林有限公司参会代表表示，当前产业企业主要通过场外渠道开展累沽累购业务，在场内市场 则购入虚值期权，为期货套保头寸提供保护。未来系列期权及其他短期期权的推出，将为产业企业参与 套期保值提供更灵活多元的工具选择。 大商所相关工作人员表示，下一步将扎实推进各项准备工作，确保豆粕和玉米系列期权的平稳上市、顺 利交易。同时，加强宣传培育工作，提升市场对系列期权的认知度与参与度。未来 ...

一德期货分析师张晨认为，最近宏观环境、现货供应收紧与市场看多情绪升温等因素共振，驱动铂、钯 期货价格上涨。12月24日晚间，外盘铂、钯价格大幅冲高回落，加之海外市场因圣诞假期休市，市场看 多情绪逐步回落，从而带动内盘铂、钯期货价格回落。 受外盘铂、钯价格大幅冲高回落影响，12月25日，广期所铂、钯期货大幅低开，随后走势显著分化，铂 期货盘中再创上市新高，主力2506合约报收于686.95元/克，上涨4.51%；钯期货则维持较弱走势，报收 于529.05元/克，下跌7.65%。 值得关注的是，针对铂、钯期货市场波动有所增大、整体交易热度有所提高的情况，交易所及时出台多 项措施，引导市场交易回归理性。 25日晚间，广期所调整铂、钯期货相关合约交易指令每次最小开仓下单数量、交易限额。 业内人士表示，相关措施有助于调控市场热度，引导交易者理性交易，切实保障市场稳定运行。 展望后市，张晨认为，从供需两端来看，基本面对铂价的支撑优于钯价。从供应端来看，铂的供应集中 度更高，且主要矿产国南非与美国持续交恶，一旦出现美国对铂现货额外加征关税或南非进行出口管制 的情况，均将对全球供应产生显著影响。 顾冯达认为，当前铂、钯价格已 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Association has acknowledged the positive outcomes of the 2025 industry stress tests while highlighting existing issues such as "form over substance" and insufficient coverage of complex business risks, prompting further guidelines to enhance the quality and effectiveness of stress testing [1][2] Group 1: Regulatory Guidance - The regulatory focus is shifting from mere compliance to a more nuanced evaluation of stress testing effectiveness, indicating a higher level of risk management maturity within the industry [2][4] - The five key requirements outlined by the China Securities Association aim to transform stress testing from a compliance exercise into a management tool, emphasizing the need for top-level design and application expansion [2][3] Group 2: Focus on Complex Risks - The China Securities Association has specifically called for the optimization of stress testing for over-the-counter derivatives and reputation risks, indicating these areas as critical for further development [3][4] - There is a noted deficiency in how some firms assess reputation risk, with some equating it to risk disposal costs without adequately evaluating its transmission effects [3][4] Group 3: Enhancing Management Practices - The association emphasizes the need for comprehensive and transparent management of subsidiaries, ensuring consistency and effectiveness in risk management across domestic and international operations [3] - Regular evaluations and optimizations of stress testing mechanisms are required to ensure their effectiveness and accuracy, with the association planning to conduct checks as necessary [3]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Association has issued a notice to brokerages, acknowledging the positive outcomes of the 2025 industry stress tests while highlighting existing issues such as "form over substance" and insufficient coverage of complex business risks. The notice outlines further guidelines to enhance the effectiveness and accuracy of stress testing in five key areas [1][2]. Regulatory Guidance Upgrade - The regulatory focus is shifting from mere compliance to management empowerment, indicating a higher level of risk management for brokerages. The 2025 stress test results show a significant increase in the importance brokerages place on stress testing, with many establishing regular testing mechanisms and applying results to capital planning [1][2]. Focus on Complex Risks - The notice emphasizes the need for brokerages to optimize stress testing for over-the-counter derivatives and reputation risks, which are becoming critical areas of focus due to the increasing complexity of brokerage business structures. Specific testing for key products like snowball and long-short swaps is required, along with market impact assessments for hedging transactions [2][3]. Reputation Risk Testing - Reputation risk testing is highlighted as a key area for deepening efforts. The 2025 results indicate that some brokerages inadequately assess reputation risk, equating it to risk disposal costs without considering its transmission effects. The industry is still in the exploratory phase regarding reputation risk testing, necessitating further research on risk characteristics and transmission paths [3]. Comprehensive Management of Subsidiaries - The notice calls for enhanced panoramic and penetrating management of subsidiaries, ensuring that stress testing is coordinated across domestic and international entities. This aims to improve the consistency and effectiveness of overall risk management [3]. Evaluation and Optimization of Testing Mechanisms - Brokerages are required to regularly evaluate and optimize their stress testing mechanisms and execution effectiveness. The China Securities Association will conduct checks as needed to ensure compliance and improvement [3].

Core Insights - The core focus of the news is on the importance of stress testing as a risk management tool for securities firms, emphasizing the need for continuous improvement and adherence to regulatory requirements [1][2] Group 1: Regulatory Requirements and Industry Response - The China Securities Association (CSRC) has issued a notification requiring securities firms to enhance their stress testing practices, aiming to strengthen risk prevention and warning capabilities [1] - Securities firms have shown a significant increase in the importance placed on stress testing, establishing regular mechanisms for conducting tests and applying results to capital planning [1] - There are still areas for improvement in the transmission mechanisms of stress testing and its integration with business scenarios within the securities industry [1] Group 2: Specific Requirements for Stress Testing - CSRC has outlined five core requirements for securities firms to further enhance their stress testing, including the need to integrate stress testing into strategic decision-making and to avoid superficial compliance [2] - Firms are encouraged to enhance their top-level design and guidance for stress testing, expanding its application scenarios to better reflect dynamic risks in business development [2] Group 3: Optimization of Stress Testing for Derivatives - The current stress testing practices for over-the-counter derivatives need to be optimized, considering the different risk characteristics of various contract structures [3] - Securities firms should develop specialized stress testing plans for key products like snowball and long-short swaps, incorporating market impacts of hedging transactions [3] Group 4: Reputation Risk and Subsidiary Management - The pressure testing for reputation risk is still in the exploratory phase, with many firms failing to adequately assess the transmission of reputation risk [3] - There is a need for a comprehensive management system for subsidiary stress testing, ensuring consistency and effectiveness in risk management across all entities [4] - Firms are required to regularly evaluate the effectiveness of their stress testing mechanisms and make necessary adjustments based on actual conditions [4]

期货日报网讯(记者谭亚敏)党的二十届四中全会是在我国迈上全面建设社会主义现代化国家新征程、向 第二个百年奋斗目标进军的关键时刻召开的一次具有历史性意义的重要会议，为新征程上党和国家事业 发展指明了前进方向、提供了根本遵循。英大期货有限公司将学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神作为当 前和今后一个时期的首要政治任务，高度重视、精心组织，着力引导全体职工自觉将思想和行动统一到 党中央决策部署上来，将学习成果转化为推动公司高质量发展、更好服务实体经济和国家战略的强劲动 力。 一、提高政治站位，精心组织部署，迅速掀起学习热潮 一是提升服务主责主业质效。坚持服务能源产业链的初心使命，持续围绕为能源产业链上下游企业套期 保值业务提供一揽子支撑服务。依托上期所"会员同行"支持政策，成功举办"英大期货助力央国企风险 管理业务高质量发展专项培训活动"；向国央企客户公司高质量提供研发报告、原材料锁价咨询等服 务，并就减产限产政策对钢价影响等热点进行分析，为其旗下企业锌锭、钢坯采购提供专业支持支撑。 二是主动防范化解金融风险。进一步聚焦体系机制建设，修订完善互联网营销相关制度，确保公司相关 业务拓展符合互联网营销新规要求；建立并修订合规 ...

近日，由大商所主办，重庆证监局、重庆市地方金融监督管理局指导，重庆石油天然气交易中心协办、 重庆市证券期货业协会承办的"DCE·产业行——期货衍生品市场服务重庆能化产业高质量发展培训 班"在重庆成功举办。 据期货日报记者了解，本次培训是大商所深入贯彻落实国家关于推动成渝地区双城经济圈建设重大战略 部署的具体举措。作为西南工业重镇，重庆拥有完整的能化产业链，涵盖天然气化工、合成材料等多个 优势领域，其产业稳定运行对区域经济高质量发展具有战略性意义。然而，在全球产业链重构、"双 碳"目标推进以及市场价格波动加剧的背景下，企业急需有效的风险管理工具，以应对成本与利润的不 确定性。 大商所相关业务负责人表示："深耕能化产业，服务西南地区经济发展，是大商所作为国家重要金融基 础设施的职责所在。"据介绍，近年来，大商所持续完善能化板块产品体系，上市包括液化石油气 （LPG）、聚丙烯（PP）、线型低密度聚乙烯（LLDPE）等在内的17个期货、期权品种，构建起与国 内能化产业链紧密结合的风险管理"工具箱"。同时，通过在重庆设立能化品种交割仓库、建设产融基 地、开展定制化培训等方式，大商所推动期货市场深度嵌入区域产业肌理，助力 ...

在投资研究与决策过程中，公司始终坚持以基本面分析为核心。通过对宏观经济环境、产业发展趋势以及企业自身经营状况的系统研究，筛选具备长期成 长潜力的新股标的。在具体分析中，重点关注企业的财务结构、盈利能力、商业模式的可持续性、行业竞争格局以及管理团队的治理能力。公司认为，新 股投资并不意味着无差别参与所有发行项目，而应在充分研究基础上进行理性选择，以提升整体投资组合的质量。 在投资执行层面，翌星（海南）投资有限公司构建了相对完整且清晰的运作流程。从资金募集到投资配置，从持仓管理到收益分配，各环节均严格遵循既 定规则与合规要求。在投资过程中，公司持续跟踪市场环境变化和组合运行情况，根据风险水平和市场条件进行动态调整，避免因短期情绪或市场波动而 偏离长期目标。在投资后阶段，通过定期评估和复盘机制，不断优化投资策略和管理流程，使整体体系具备持续改进能力。 风险控制始终是公司投资管理体系中的核心支柱。翌星（海南）投资有限公司建立了覆盖投资全生命周期的风险管理机制，通过事前审查、事中监控和事 后评估相结合的方式，对市场风险、流动性风险和运营风险进行系统管理。在投资前阶段，严格执行尽职调查和风险评估流程；在投资过程中，持续监 ...