早上好，先来关注下国际市场。 1月2日，美股三大指数集体高开，道琼斯指数涨0.19%，标普500指数涨0.58%，纳斯达克综合指数涨1.03%。费城半导体指数大幅高开，阿斯麦涨超7%， 盘中创历史新高；美光科技涨近6%；AMD涨超4%。 中概股集体大涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数暴涨4%，百度涨11.35%，富途控股涨6.84%，哔哩哔哩涨6.87%，网易涨6.77%，老虎证券涨5.54%，36氪涨 4.85%，房多多涨4.79%，蔚来涨4.64%，阿里巴巴涨4.55%，霸王茶姬涨4.47%，腾讯控股ADR涨4.30%，新东方涨4.15%，微博涨3.82%，爱奇艺涨 3.39%，理想汽车涨3.01%，高途涨3.02%，贝壳涨2.79%，迅雷涨2.82%，京东涨2.34%。 截至收盘，美股三大指数涨跌不一，纳指高开低走，收跌0.03%，标普500指数微涨0.19%，道指涨0.66%。明星科技股表现分化，阿斯麦涨近9%，美光科 技涨超10%，二者股价均创历史新高。AMD涨超4%，英伟达涨超1%，谷歌微涨；特斯拉、微软跌超2%，亚马逊跌近2%，Meta跌超1%，苹果微跌。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨4.38%，本周累涨2. ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "AI bubble" as a significant topic among global investors and investment banks, particularly in the context of the 2026 outlook, highlighting concerns about the sustainability of AI capital expenditure cycles and the prospects for AI application and profitability [4]. Group 1: AI Market Dynamics - Since the emergence of ChatGPT at the end of 2022, AI has been a major theme in capital markets, with companies like Nvidia seeing their stock prices and valuations reach new highs [4]. - There are growing concerns among investors regarding the volatility in capital markets, influenced by financing gaps in some US AI firms and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4]. Group 2: Technological and Economic Paradigms - The article emphasizes the need for a macro perspective to deconstruct the "AI bubble," integrating a "technology-economy-power" paradigm that views technological innovation as interconnected with economic and social evolution [5]. - Historical experiences since the Industrial Revolution indicate that core countries often lead in innovation, while peripheral countries can catch up through institutional innovation and learning effects [6]. Group 3: Recommended Literature - The article recommends 20 classic books categorized into three units: - **Technology**: Focuses on the essence of technology, diffusion of innovation, and conditions for innovation-friendly institutions [6]. - **Economy**: Concentrates on economic long cycles shaped by technological innovation, including several works on American economic history [6]. - **Power**: Addresses how technology shapes the global system [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "AI bubble" as a significant topic among global investors, particularly in the context of the 2026 outlook from various investment banks, highlighting the volatility in capital markets and concerns over the sustainability of AI capital expenditure cycles and profitability realization [1]. Group 1: Technology - The article emphasizes the complex system of innovation and technology evolution, proposing a "technology-economy-power" paradigm that integrates technological innovation with economic and social institutional evolution [2]. - It notes that historically, core countries have been the main providers of innovation, while peripheral countries can catch up through institutional innovation and learning effects [2]. Group 2: Economic Cycles and Bubbles - The article outlines that technological innovation and total factor productivity are the primary explanations for the increase in per capita GDP, which is also the main path for a country to enhance its global economic power [2]. - It references historical examples of industrial revolutions, indicating that to transition from a peripheral to a core country, a new wave of technological revolution is often necessary [2]. Group 3: Recommended Literature - The article lists 20 classic books categorized into three units: technology, economy (cycles and bubbles), and power, with a focus on the essence of technology, the economic long cycles shaped by technological innovation, and how technology influences the world system [3][4].

Group 1 - The end of Jerome Powell's era as Federal Reserve Chairman is anticipated by 2026, with speculation about his political legacy and the economic environment he will leave behind [3] - The upcoming SpaceX IPO is expected to be a significant event, potentially marking the largest IPO in history, providing Elon Musk with additional funding for his ambitions [6] - The success of SpaceX could mitigate any negative impacts from potential delays in the anticipated rollout of Tesla's Robotaxi in 2026 [6] Group 2 - Despite discussions about an AI bubble, major tech companies continue to thrive due to their profitable businesses in advertising, e-commerce, software, and cloud services, which provide a buffer for their investments in unprofitable AI models [2] - The growth of prediction markets, exemplified by Coinbase's partnership with Kalshi, reflects a novel way to gauge public sentiment, although it has sparked concerns about gambling and the influence of new financial tools [4] - The expansion of the "Musk trade" is expected to continue, with the SpaceX IPO providing shareholders another avenue to support Musk, even as it may dilute excitement around Tesla [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential IPOs of three major tech unicorns: SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, which could lead to a historic capital market event, significantly impacting Wall Street and the broader investment landscape [4][5]. Group 1: IPO Potential and Market Impact - If any of the three companies successfully go public this year, the single transaction size could surpass the total fundraising of approximately 200 IPOs in the U.S. in 2025 [5][14]. - SpaceX is reportedly planning a secondary market stock sale with a valuation of up to $800 billion, aiming for an IPO within the next 12 months [7]. - OpenAI's current valuation stands at $500 billion, with discussions for a new funding round targeting $750 billion or higher [8]. - Anthropic has officially engaged a law firm to prepare for its IPO and is negotiating a funding round with a target valuation exceeding $300 billion [9][10]. Group 2: Historical Context and Economic Drivers - The IPO market in 2026 is attempting to recover from a challenging previous year, where major tech IPOs were hindered by external factors, resulting in a total fundraising of just over $30 billion in the first nine months of 2025 [13]. - The successful IPOs of these companies could lead to substantial returns for early investors, with notable firms like Founders Fund and Khosla Ventures holding significant stakes in SpaceX and OpenAI, respectively [12]. - The article highlights that these companies are seen as macroeconomic drivers, with their IPO decisions not merely reactive to market conditions but indicative of their strong market positions [15][16].

编辑 | 硬 AI 华尔街正在屏息以待一场可能载入史册的资本盛宴。 英国《金融时报》援引多位知情人士消息称，美国科技界估值最高的三家独角兽——SpaceX、OpenAI和 Anthropic，正紧锣密鼓地筹备IPO，最早今年启动。 值得一提的是，今年只要上述三大巨头中有任何一家成功上市，其单笔交易规模就足以碾压2025年全美约 200家IPO的募资总和。 对于经历了漫长"IPO旱季"的华尔街投行、律所及风险投资机构而言，这三家公司的上市不仅意味着数百亿 美元的承销与咨询收入，更可能造就其历史上利润最为丰厚的"收成大年"。 Lux Capital联合创始人Peter Hébert表示： "我记忆中从未见过这样的盛况——三家即将上市的私营企业，一旦挂牌，便将直接跻身全球市值最高的上市 公司行列... 只要三大巨头中有任何一家成功上市，其单笔交易规模就足以碾压2025年全美约200家IPO的募资总和。 所有这些公司都在2026年上市的可能性很小，但并非不可能，这将意味着风险投资家、银行家和交易律师将 获得巨大的财富。" 作者 | 硬 AI 01 超级IPO之年 硬·AI 尽管具体的IPO估值目标尚未最终敲定，但从近 ...

华尔街正在屏息以待一场可能载入史册的资本盛宴。 英国《金融时报》援引多位知情人士消息称，美国科技界估值最高的三家独角兽——SpaceX、OpenAI 和Anthropic，正紧锣密鼓地筹备IPO，最早今年启动。 值得一提的是，今年只要上述三大巨头中有任何一家成功上市，其单笔交易规模就足以碾压2025年全美 约200家IPO的募资总和。 对于经历了漫长"IPO旱季"的华尔街投行、律所及风险投资机构而言，这三家公司的上市不仅意味着数 百亿美元的承销与咨询收入，更可能造就其历史上利润最为丰厚的"收成大年"。 Lux Capital联合创始人Peter Hébert表示： "我记忆中从未见过这样的盛况——三家即将上市的私营企业，一旦挂牌，便将直接跻身全 球市值最高的上市公司行列... 所有这些公司都在2026年上市的可能性很小，但并非不可能，这将意味着风险投资家、银行 家和交易律师将获得巨大的财富。" 超级IPO之年 尽管具体的IPO估值目标尚未最终敲定，但从近期的一级市场交易中，已能窥见这三艘"巨舰"的惊人体 量。 SpaceX正在推进一笔二级市场股票出售，对应估值高达8000亿美元。高管层近期向投资者透露，若无 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞 写在前面的话 2025 年底，" AI 泡沫"成为全球投资者热议的话题，也是国内外投行 2026 年展望的一个关键词（包括我们海外年度展望《刚 性"泡沫"》）。 从 2022 年底 ChatGPT 诞生以来， AI 始终都是资本市场的一大主线，以英伟达为代表的美国头部芯片制造商的股价、估值与市 值屡创新高。在此背景下，叠加部分美国 AI 厂商出现融资缺口和美联储降息预期的扰动等，资本市场的波动性有所抬升，投资 者开始担忧 AI 资本开支周期的可持续性，以及 AI 应用落地和盈利兑现的前景。 关于 AI ，过去几年主要是自下而上分析技术和产业趋势，可一旦要解构" AI 泡沫"，自上而下的宏观视角或不可或缺。 创新与技术的演化是一个复杂系统。宏观视域下的"技术 - 经济"范式将技术创新与经济、社会制度的演变视为一个相互作用、协 同演化的整体系统。如果将其与世界体系的"中心 - 外围"秩序的演进结合起来，就可以将"技术 - 经济"范式拓展为"技术 - 经济 - 权力"范式。长周期而言，技术创新和全要素生产率是一国人均 GDP 提升的最主要解释、进而也是一国在全球 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how gamblers on the Polymarket prediction platform have become more adept at predicting AI trends than traditional experts, with some individuals earning significant profits through accurate predictions related to AI developments [1][2]. Group 1: Polymarket Overview - Polymarket is a controversial prediction platform in the cryptocurrency space where users can bet on a wide range of events, from cryptocurrency prices to celebrity news, with a simple binary outcome of "YES" or "NO" [1]. - The platform operates on a straightforward rule where the price of a contract fluctuates between $0.01 and $1, reflecting the market's judgment on the probability of an event occurring [1]. - Data from Dune Analytics indicates that only 16.7% of users are profitable, suggesting that the majority of participants are losing money [1]. Group 2: AI-Focused Gamblers - A subset of users on Polymarket has emerged, focusing exclusively on AI-related predictions, such as the release dates of Google models and OpenAI hardware, outperforming Wall Street analysts and tech media in understanding AI trends [2]. - Notable players include a user identified as 0xafEe, who earned $920,000 over a year by accurately predicting events related to Google AI models, including a profit of over $150,000 from a single prediction [2]. Group 3: AI Participation - AI has also entered the prediction space, with automated accounts on Polymarket achieving remarkable success; one AI account, ilovecircle, made $2.2 million in just two months with a 74% win rate [7]. - These AI accounts utilize neural networks to monitor global information, including news and social media sentiment, allowing them to make rapid predictions based on real-time data [8]. Group 4: Market Trends and Predictions - Recent predictions on Polymarket indicate that nearly 90% of participants expect the release of Google’s Gemini 3.0, with 79% pinpointing November 18 as the likely date [6]. - The introduction of AI tools like Polymarket Agents and Polyseer has shown to enhance prediction accuracy by 30-50% compared to traditional methods, indicating a growing trend towards AI integration in market predictions [10].

宇树科技（Unitree）的G1人形机器人KOID回答，"只有时间才能证明"当前的人工智能（AI）热潮是否 真的是泡沫。近日，这台会走路、会说话的机器人称，AI泡沫的争论确实是一个"热门话题"，但对于这 场热潮是否预示着泡沫即将破裂，KOID给出了中立的展望。 ...