Core Insights - The article discusses the potential of AI to create incremental demand and its implications for investment opportunities, drawing parallels with the previous mobile internet boom [1][5][35]. Group 1: AI's Current Market Dynamics - A significant portion of the U.S. economic growth is driven by data center investments, which raises concerns about whether these investments will lead to actual consumer demand or merely replace existing supply [5]. - Current AI applications primarily follow a substitution logic rather than creating new demand, as seen in examples like Perplexity and various AI-generated content platforms [2][3]. - The value chain's upstream players, such as Nvidia, are profiting significantly from the current AI trend, while many application-level companies struggle to monetize effectively [3]. Group 2: Understanding Incremental Demand - Incremental demand is defined as the increased willingness and ability of consumers to purchase more products or services [5][6]. - Consumer willingness to spend is heavily influenced by the effectiveness of advertising and information dissemination [6][8]. - Economic conditions, such as rising incomes during macroeconomic upturns, can lead to the emergence of new consumer demands [9][12]. Group 3: Historical Context from Mobile Internet - The initial wave of mobile internet growth was characterized by the introduction of smartphones, which increased user engagement and time spent on devices [17][19]. - Subsequent innovations focused on reducing delivery costs and enhancing service accessibility, allowing a broader audience to benefit from previously exclusive services [19][20]. - The evolution of mobile internet also saw a rise in new consumer needs as economic conditions improved, leading to a surge in new service offerings [21][23]. Group 4: Future Opportunities in AI - Future growth in AI may hinge on new devices that can further engage users, such as augmented reality glasses [27]. - Enhancing conversion efficiency through advanced advertising techniques is a potential growth area, as demonstrated by companies like AppLovin [30]. - Reducing delivery costs through AI can democratize access to services that were once only available to wealthier individuals, creating new market opportunities [32]. - The rise of "super individuals" or freelancers empowered by AI may lead to new consumer demands, although immediate large-scale consumption increases may not be guaranteed [33]. Conclusion - The article concludes that while AI has the potential to generate incremental demand, it may take time to realize this potential fully, similar to the mobile internet's evolution over nearly a decade [35].

移动互联网丨研究报告 核心摘要： 视音频娱乐行业： 长视频用户规模步入低增长成熟期 ，优酷 APP 依靠精品内容战略逆 势强势增长，并吸引高知高收入群体 ；短视频用户规模进入存量阶段，增长乏力；在线 音乐用户规模稳增，进入成熟期。 短视频仍为时长榜首（ 137 分钟），但同质化加 剧；在线音乐借助 AI 推荐、 VR/AR 音乐会提升体验。短视频用户全民化、下沉化；在 线音乐用户全龄多元，中高消费群体付费意愿强。 智能应用行业： 智能家居与智能穿戴五年内用户规模翻倍；语言模型爆发式增长 100 4% 。语言模型用户规模增但使用次数下降，粘性不足；智能工具用户流失但忠诚度提 升（使用次数增 20.8% ）。智能家居 / 穿戴用户以中青年、高线城市、高收入群体为 主；语言模型用户为高知高收入男性，一线城市集中；智能工具用户向中低线城市及中 高龄扩散，基础功能仍具价值。 中国移动互联网价值榜 榜单显示， AI 相关应用（如语言模型）、生活服务、智能穿戴等新兴赛道增速领先， 而传统工具类应用增长乏力。增速榜反映了行业从存量竞争向技术驱动创新转变的趋 势， AI 、健康监测、跨场景融合成为增长核心动力。 中国移动互联网 ...

移动互联网丨研究报告 核心摘要： 中国移动互联网发展总览 截至 202 5 年 6 月，中国移动互联网月独立设备数接近 14.5 亿台，用户基数持续扩 大，但增长动能已从人口红利转向 6G 、 AI 及新兴非手机类智能终端（如 XR 设备、 车联网） 。 用户画像显示， 25-45 岁中青年群体为核心用户； 46 岁及以上中老年渗透显著；下沉 市场（新一线至三线城市）用户占比高，成为主要增长来源。用户行为呈现"量降质 升"趋势：有效使用时间从 303 分钟降至 273 分钟，使用次数从 73 次降至 61 次，反 映用户从被动消耗转向主动获取价值。 分行业中，通讯、视频、电商等 9 类行业用户规模超十亿， AI 与智能穿戴爆发增长， 成为新增量战场。使用时长方面，短视频（ 137 分钟）、游戏（ 97 分钟）、视频 / 通 讯（ 80 分钟）位居前三，人工智能同比增长 40.7% ，办公管理增 25.5% ，显示 AI 与远程办公驱动高粘性增长。 重点细分行业详情 视音频娱乐行业： 长视频用户规模步入低增长成熟期 ，优酷 APP 依靠精品内容战略逆 势强势增长，并吸引高知高收入群体 ；短视频用户规模进入存量阶 ...

Group 1 - Company Tom Cat (SZ 300459) announced on September 16 that major shareholder Wang Jian has recently released some pledged shares and lifted judicial freezes on part of his shares [1] - As of the announcement date, Wang Jian has pledged approximately 175 million shares, accounting for 99.82% of his total holdings [1] - For the year 2024, Tom Cat's revenue composition is entirely from the mobile internet industry, with a 100.0% share [1] Group 2 - The current market capitalization of Tom Cat is 19.3 billion yuan [2]

Group 1 - The company Tom Cat (SZ 300459) announced a guarantee amounting to approximately 1.707 billion yuan, which includes about 117 million USD and approximately 878 million yuan, accounting for 68.48% of the latest audited net assets [1] - The total balance of guarantees provided is expected to be around 1.202 billion yuan, which includes 62.24 million USD and about 760 million yuan, representing 48.21% of the latest audited net assets [1] - The total balance of guarantees provided to entities outside the consolidated financial statements is expected to be 698 million yuan, accounting for 28% of the latest audited net assets [1] Group 2 - As of the report, the market capitalization of Tom Cat is 18.7 billion yuan [2]

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——"史上最丑"与"丑上最薄"：iPhone 17系列背后的新战事 （记者 贾运可） 每经AI快讯，汤姆猫（SZ 300459，收盘价：5.31元）9月10日晚间发布公告称，公司通过查询中国证券 登记结算有限责任公司深圳分公司业务系统，获悉公司持股 5%以上股东王健先生于近日存在解除质押 及解除司法冻结部分股份的情况，此次解除质押约145.77万股，解除司法冻结约145.77万股。 2024年1至12月份，汤姆猫的营业收入构成为：移动互联网行业占比100.0%。 截至发稿，汤姆猫市值为187亿元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "Moutai Curse" suggests that any company's stock price exceeding Moutai will subsequently decline, with Cambricon being the latest challenger to this notion after its stock price surged tenfold over the past year, reaching 1465 yuan on August 27, only to drop significantly thereafter [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context - Over the past eight years, no company has surpassed Moutai's stock price until Cambricon, which briefly held the title of A-share king [1]. - Historically, 14 companies have exceeded Moutai's stock price, primarily around 2015, coinciding with the last major bull market and the impending burst of the mobile internet bubble [1][3]. Group 2: Stock Performance Analysis - Among the 14 companies that surpassed Moutai, half experienced a decline within one month, and five of these were in a downward trend within a year [2][3]. - The average PE ratio of these 14 companies was 232, while Cambricon's PE ratio reached an extreme 514, indicating a significant overvaluation [6][8]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Risks - The surge in Cambricon's stock price is attributed to the current AI market frenzy, drawing parallels to the mobile internet bubble [7]. - Concerns are rising regarding the sustainability of the AI bubble, with Cambricon's stock price showing a pattern similar to those companies affected by the "Moutai Curse" [8][9]. - As of September 4, Cambricon's stock price fell by 14.45% to 1202 yuan, while Moutai's price remained relatively stable at 1472.7 yuan [9].

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "Moutai Curse" suggests that any company's stock price exceeding Moutai will subsequently decline, with Cambricon being the latest challenger to this phenomenon after its stock price surged tenfold over the past year, reaching 1465 yuan before experiencing a significant drop [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context - Over the past eight years, no company has surpassed Moutai's stock price until Cambricon, which briefly held the title of A-share king [2]. - Historically, 14 companies have exceeded Moutai's stock price, primarily around 2015, a period marked by a major bull market and the impending burst of the mobile internet bubble [2][4]. Group 2: Performance Analysis - Among the 14 companies that surpassed Moutai, half began to decline within a month, with five of those experiencing a downward trend within a year [4][5]. - Companies like暴风科技 (Storm Technology) and全通教育 (All-in Education) illustrate the volatility, with the former peaking at 327 yuan in 2015 before plummeting due to operational failures and financial issues [5][6]. Group 3: Current Situation of Cambricon - Cambricon's current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio stands at 514, significantly higher than the historical average of 232 for the 14 companies that previously surpassed Moutai [7][9]. - Following its peak, Cambricon's stock price dropped 14.45% to 1202 yuan, indicating a trend similar to those companies that previously faced the "Moutai Curse" [9]. Group 4: Market Conditions - The current market environment for Cambricon is characterized by external risks, including geopolitical tensions and global economic downturns, contrasting with the internal risks faced in 2015 [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon known as the "Moutai Curse," which suggests that companies whose stock prices exceed that of Moutai tend to experience a decline thereafter. The latest challenger to this curse is Cambricon, whose stock price surged tenfold over the past year, briefly surpassing Moutai before experiencing a significant drop [4][5]. Group 1: Historical Context - Over the past eight years, no company has surpassed Moutai's stock price until Cambricon. Historically, 14 companies have exceeded Moutai's price, primarily around 2015, a period marked by a bull market and the impending burst of the mobile internet bubble [5][6]. - A review of the stock performance of these 14 companies after surpassing Moutai shows that half of them began to decline within a month, with many experiencing significant drops within a year [9][10]. Group 2: Performance Analysis - Among the 14 companies, only China Shipbuilding and Yanghe Brewery maintained an upward trend for a year after exceeding Moutai's price. The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for these companies was 232, while Cambricon's PE ratio reached an extreme 514 [9][13][16]. - The article highlights that the stock price surges of these companies were often driven by speculative bubbles without solid fundamental support, leading to inevitable declines when market enthusiasm waned [15][16]. Group 3: Current Market Conditions - Cambricon's recent stock performance mirrors the patterns observed in previous instances of the "Moutai Curse," with its stock price peaking at 1,465 yuan before dropping significantly. As of September 4, Cambricon's stock closed at 1,202 yuan, reflecting a 14.45% decline [17]. - The current market environment differs from 2015, with risks stemming more from external factors such as geopolitical tensions and global economic downturns, rather than internal leverage issues [17].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the company, highlighting a significant revenue and profit growth driven by the "AI + overseas expansion" strategy [4][12]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 1.713 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 39.0%, significantly accelerating from 17.7% in the same period last year [2][7]. - The overseas revenue growth reached an impressive 439%, marking it as the core engine driving the company's overall performance [2][9]. - The company aims for revenue targets of over 4 billion RMB in 2025, over 6 billion in 2026, and over 10 billion by 2028, with a current dynamic P/E ratio of approximately 23 times and a PS ratio of about 0.4 times [4][12]. Financial Performance Summary - Sales revenue for FY2023 was 2,098.2 million RMB, with a year-on-year decline of 8.8%, but projected to rebound to 2,627.3 million RMB in FY2024, reflecting a growth of 25.2% [1]. - The adjusted net profit for the first half of 2025 was approximately 51.8 million RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 10.3% [2][7]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 10.32%, with a gross profit of 177 million RMB, up 29.2% year-on-year [2][7]. Strategic Initiatives - The "AI + overseas expansion" dual-driven strategy has shown significant effectiveness, with 60% of the funds raised from the new share placement allocated for developing AI applications in overseas markets [3][8]. - The company is integrating AI technology into its core products, enhancing advertising precision and efficiency, and establishing a competitive edge in the market [3][10]. - The collaboration with major smartphone manufacturers has created a robust ecosystem, covering over 90% of smartphone users, which supports the company's strategic initiatives [10][11].