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美联储降息概率70%黄金吃定了?1500亿美元放水,央行狂买1045吨
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-13 12:20
最近后台有不少粉丝在问黄金的事。11月初,美国结束了政府停摆,按理说市场风险降低了,黄金应该 跌才对。 但实际情况正好相反,国际金价不仅没跌,反而稳稳站在高位,国内金价也跟着涨,周大福、老庙这些 品牌的金饰价格已经突破了1300元/克。 不过金饰卖不动了,但金条却卖得火热。这到底是怎么回事?今天咱就从几个方面来聊聊黄金这波行 情。 政府停摆结束后的资金流动 美国政府停摆确实结束了。根据美国财政部的数据,停摆期间有大约75万联邦雇员没有拿到工资,很多 政府合同也被暂停。现在政府重新开门,这些欠薪和欠款需要补上。 美联储的降息预期 比短期资金流动更重要的,是市场对美联储政策的预期。根据芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具显 示,市场预期美联储在12月降息的概率确实比较高。 美联储在2024年9月、11月和12月连续三次降息,每次降25个基点,累计降息75个基点。联邦基金利率 从5.25%到5.5%的区间降到了4.25%到4.5%。这是美联储自2020年以来首次降息周期。 美联储主席鲍威尔在11月7日的新闻发布会上表示,美联储将根据经济数据来决定是否继续降息。他提 到,虽然通胀率已经从高点回落,但距离2%的目标还 ...
中信、建行等多家银行宣布,上调积存金起购门槛
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-13 10:56
Core Viewpoint - Several banks in China, including CITIC Bank and China Construction Bank, have announced an increase in the minimum investment threshold for gold accumulation products due to rising gold prices [1] Group 1: Bank Announcements - CITIC Bank will raise the minimum investment amount for its gold accumulation plan from 1,000 yuan to 1,500 yuan starting November 15, 2025 [1] - China Construction Bank will increase its minimum investment amount from 1,000 yuan to 1,200 yuan, effective the same date [1] - Other banks, such as Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Ningbo Bank, have also raised their minimum thresholds for gold accumulation products, surpassing the 1,000 yuan mark [1] Group 2: Changes in Investment Structure - Some banks are shifting their gold accumulation product structure from a fixed amount to a model that fluctuates with gold prices [1]
重新站上4200美元 4连涨的黄金彻底“回温”了吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-13 10:22
COMEX黄金重回4200美元上方。 受国际金价上涨影响,13日国内多家金店调整金饰价格。周大福、周大生足金饰品价格由前一日的1313 元/克,上涨至1333元/克,克价一夜上涨20元;周生生足金饰品价格由前一日的1309元/克上涨至1326 元/克,克价一夜上涨17元。 消息面上,路透社报道,美国国债收益率在众议院投票重新开放政府之前下滑;同时,美国政府结 束"停摆"后可能会恢复经济数据发布,并提振对美联储12月降息的预期。 报道指出,美国政府为期42天的"停摆"对经济造成了压力,并导致政府数据中断,促使政策制定者和市 场依赖私人指标来衡量经济状况。而美国自动数据处理公司(ADP)公布数据显示,美国劳动力市场持续 疲软。此外,乌克兰停止与俄罗斯谈判,也让地缘政治风险加剧。 中新网11月13日电(记者 左雨晴) 价格巨震后,黄金迎来"4连涨"。 当地时间11月12日,国际金价连续第4个交易日上涨,在重回4100美元两天后,再次突破4200美元关 口。COMEX黄金涨2.07%,报4201.4美元/盎司;伦敦现货黄金突破4200美元关口后回落,收报4194.605 美元/盎司,涨1.68%。11月13日,国际金 ...
黄金“围城”内外:有人匆匆下车后再抄底
Xin Jing Bao· 2025-11-13 10:01
金价的细微波动,总能挑动人们敏感的神经。 站上巅峰的黄金,才经历了"惊魂一夜"。10月21日,现货黄金一度下跌超6%,创2013年4月以来最大单 日跌幅,几乎"一键撤回"过去一周积累的收益。 黄金狂欢按下暂停键,但"淘金"故事从未停止。11月5日,黄金投资者邓丽反复点开手机查看金价,犹 豫要不要先抛售一部分黄金持仓再抄底,投资者黄珊则不慌不忙,坚持定投黄金。 进入11月,金价仍在震荡调整,国际金价回到4100美元/盎司上方。11月12日,COMEX黄金盘中报 4120.8美元/盎司,涨0.11%;现货黄金盘中报4116.28美元/盎司,跌0.24%。国内上海黄金交易所上海金 早盘价报947.47元/克。 这一天,金饰价格已经突破1300元。菜百首饰足金饰品报价1265元/克,周大福足金饰品报价1313元/ 克,周生生足金饰品报价1309元/克。 珠宝城批发生意不好做,主播上线引流 站上高位后金价狂泻,同样突如其来。10月21日,国际现货黄金价格一度下跌超6%,跌破每盎司4100 美元,创下12年来最大单日跌幅。 新京报贝壳财经记者 徐雨婷 潘亦纯 编辑 王进雨 校对 赵琳 早上9:30,北京天雅珠宝城准点开门 ...
黄金,4连涨
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-11-13 09:33
Core Insights - International gold prices have experienced a significant increase, marking a fourth consecutive day of gains, with prices surpassing $4200 per ounce [1][3]. Gold Market Dynamics - On November 12, COMEX gold rose by 2.07% to $4201.4 per ounce, while London spot gold closed at $4194.605 per ounce, up 1.68% [1]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices have adjusted accordingly, with notable increases in prices from major retailers such as Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang [3]. - The recent rise in gold prices is influenced by a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [3][4]. Economic Factors - The U.S. government shutdown has created economic pressures, leading to a reliance on private indicators for economic assessment [3]. - The labor market in the U.S. remains weak, as indicated by data from ADP, contributing to the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4]. Central Bank Actions - The trend of monetary easing continues, with expectations of a cumulative 25 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, supporting the value of gold [4]. - Global central banks have maintained a strong demand for gold, with an average net purchase of over 1000 tons per year since 2022, significantly above previous averages [4]. Investor Behavior - The demand for gold as a hedge against uncertainty remains robust, driven by various geopolitical risks [4]. - Investors are advised to monitor market changes closely and manage their gold investments based on personal risk tolerance and investment needs [4]. Banking Adjustments - Recent adjustments in gold accumulation business by domestic banks, such as Citic Bank and China Construction Bank, reflect changing market conditions [4][6]. - China Construction Bank has introduced new rules regarding large redemptions, which may affect liquidity for investors [6].
中证沪深港黄金产业股票指数涨3.08%,中国黄金国际涨4.67%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-13 09:18
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the medium to long-term investment value of the gold sector, despite short-term uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and weakening risk aversion sentiment [1] - The China Securities analysis indicates that the gold price may remain volatile in the short term, but the long-term logic is clear due to ongoing issues with U.S. debt and a weakening dollar, which enhance gold's monetary attributes [1] - Global central banks are increasing their gold reserves, supporting a steady rise in gold prices, while industrial metals like copper and aluminum are experiencing supply constraints and improving demand, which may keep prices elevated [1] Group 2 - The South China Securities Index covering the gold industry includes key segments such as gold mining, smelting, and processing, which can capture opportunities from rising gold prices [1] - The article suggests a focus on the gold industry chain, which is expected to benefit from the long-term upward cycle of gold prices, leading to significant earnings and valuation elasticity [1]
黄金税收新政后 在哪儿买 “金条”更划算
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-11-13 08:24
Core Viewpoint - The new tax policy on gold, effective from November 1, 2023, aims to clarify the distinction between investment and non-investment uses of gold, introducing differentiated VAT rules to address tax evasion issues in the gold market [3][4]. Group 1: Tax Policy Details - The new tax regulations categorize gold based on purity and function, defining investment gold and non-investment gold, which will impact procurement and production costs [3][4]. - Investment gold includes items with a purity of 99.5% or higher, while non-investment gold is defined as gold used for purposes other than investment [3][4]. - For physical delivery, investment gold members can enjoy immediate VAT refunds, while non-investment gold purchases will see a reduction in input tax deduction from 13% to 6%, increasing costs by 7% [4]. Group 2: Market Impact - Following the announcement of the new tax policy, gold jewelry prices have increased significantly, with some brands raising prices by over 5% within a day [5]. - The price of gold jewelry on platforms like JD and Taobao has surged to over 1000 yuan per gram, an increase of more than 70 yuan per gram compared to pre-policy prices [5]. - The cost pressures from the new tax policy may not yet be fully reflected at retail levels, but future price discrepancies are expected between different sales channels [6]. Group 3: Investment Trends - The new tax policy is likely to decrease the attractiveness of non-exchange physical gold investments, while bank products like gold accumulation accounts and ETFs may gain popularity [7][9]. - Several banks have raised the minimum investment thresholds for gold accumulation products following the new tax regulations, indicating a shift in investment strategies [7][9]. - The domestic gold ETF holdings have seen significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 164.03% in the first three quarters of 2025 [9].
炒黄金一站式解决资产配置焦虑,领峰环球4步教你黄金投资
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-13 07:55
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the growing appeal of gold investment as a low-cost, low-barrier entry point for new investors, particularly in the context of economic uncertainty and inflation [1][2][4]. Investment Appeal of Gold - Gold is presented as a reliable hedge against economic volatility and a safeguard for wealth during turbulent times, contrasting with the potential declines in stocks and funds [1][2]. - It is characterized as an effective counter to inflation, maintaining its value as currency purchasing power diminishes due to central bank policies [1][2]. Flexibility and Accessibility of Trading - The article highlights the flexibility of trading gold on platforms like LPM Global, which allows for 24-hour trading and T+0 transactions, enabling investors to capitalize on daily market movements [2][4]. - Unlike traditional investments such as real estate or stocks, gold trading requires minimal capital, making it accessible for younger investors [2][4]. Support for New Investors - LPM Global offers various resources to assist new investors, including live analysis from experienced analysts, educational content, and a user-friendly trading app [4][5]. - The platform provides a simulated trading environment with virtual funds, allowing users to practice without financial risk [8]. Steps to Start Investing - The article outlines a four-step process for new investors to begin trading gold, including quick account setup, risk-free practice, low initial investment, and the potential for daily earnings [7][9][10].
黄金大消息!银行收紧淘金路,多家银行门槛提至千元!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-13 07:09
Core Viewpoint - Several banks are adjusting their gold accumulation business rules in response to fluctuating gold prices, aiming to protect investors and manage market risks [1][3][4]. Group 1: Bank Adjustments - China Construction Bank revised its gold accumulation business rules, effective November 15, 2025, including changes to transaction pricing and large redemptions [1][4]. - The minimum monthly accumulation amount for individual clients at China Construction Bank has been raised to 1,200 yuan, with increments of 10 yuan [1][4]. - CITIC Bank announced an increase in the minimum investment amount for its gold accumulation plan from 1,000 yuan to 1,500 yuan, effective the same date [1][7]. Group 2: Market Conditions - As of November 11, international gold prices reached 4,140 USD per ounce, while domestic prices were at 948.23 yuan per gram [3][9]. - The adjustments by banks reflect increased volatility in gold prices and heightened investment risks, with banks aiming to curb irrational investments by raising thresholds and revising rules [3][8]. Group 3: Pricing Mechanism - China Construction Bank's pricing for gold accumulation includes proactive accumulation price, regular accumulation price, and redemption price, with the latter being based on the active accumulation price at 10:30 AM [5][4]. - The bank reserves the right to adjust the pricing based on market conditions, and the buy-sell spread may vary, impacting transaction costs for clients [5][4]. Group 4: Investor Implications - The increase in thresholds directly limits participation from small investors, while rule optimizations and redemption restrictions may affect liquidity [8]. - The potential risks in gold accumulation business include market liquidity risk, operational risk, and credit risk, especially during periods of price volatility [8][9].
黄金税收新政后 在哪儿买 “金条”更划算|LIN眼相看
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-13 05:08
Core Viewpoint - The new tax policy on gold, effective from November 1, 2023, aims to clarify the distinction between investment and non-investment uses of gold, introducing differentiated VAT rules to address tax evasion issues in the gold market [3][4]. Group 1: Tax Policy Details - The new tax regulations categorize gold based on purity and function, defining investment gold and non-investment gold, with specific VAT implications for each category [3][4]. - Investment gold includes items like gold bars and coins with a purity of 99.5% or higher, while non-investment gold refers to all other uses [3]. - For physical delivery transactions, investment gold will have VAT refunded immediately, but sales must issue regular invoices to prevent tax evasion [4]. Group 2: Market Impact - Following the announcement of the new tax policy, gold jewelry prices have increased significantly, with some brands raising prices by over 5% within days [5]. - The price of gold per gram has risen from approximately 930 yuan to over 1000 yuan, reflecting a 7% increase due to the new tax regulations [5]. - Retailers are expected to pass on increased costs to consumers, leading to higher prices for gold jewelry and bars [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Shifts - The new tax policy is likely to decrease the attractiveness of non-exchange physical gold investments, while bank products like gold accumulation plans and ETFs may become more appealing [8][10]. - Several banks have raised the minimum investment thresholds for gold accumulation plans, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards more structured gold investment products [8][10]. - The domestic gold ETF holdings have seen a significant increase, with a year-on-year growth of 164.03% in the first three quarters of 2025, suggesting a growing preference for ETF investments over physical gold [10].