Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to reports of the Thai military seizing Chinese-made anti-tank missiles in Cambodia, emphasizing that China's defense cooperation with Thailand and Cambodia does not target any third party and is unrelated to the conflict at the border [1] - The Central Economic Work Conference highlighted that expanding domestic demand is the top priority for the coming year, with domestic demand contributing 71% to economic growth in the first three quarters of the year [2] Group 2 - Dongxing Securities announced that it plans to be absorbed by China International Capital Corporation (CICC) and Xinda Securities through a share swap, with trading resuming on December 18, 2025 [2] - CICC's share swap price is set at 36.91 yuan per share, with each share of Dongxing Securities being exchangeable for 0.5188 shares of CICC [9] Group 3 - The price of tungsten powder has surged to 1 million yuan per ton, marking a 216.5% increase since the beginning of the year, while ammonium paratungstate (APT) has also seen significant price increases [8]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed strength with a rebound in trading volume, with major indices rising significantly on December 17, 2025. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.19% to close at 3870.28 points, while the ChiNext Index surged by 3.39% [5] - The total trading volume for A-shares reached 1.83 trillion yuan, up from 1.75 trillion yuan the previous day, indicating a strong profit-making effect with 3623 stocks rising and 1634 stocks falling [5] Stock Market Analysis - The listing of Muxi Co., the second domestic GPU stock, significantly boosted the technology sector, with its stock price soaring by 693% to 829.90 yuan per share, resulting in a market capitalization exceeding 330 billion yuan [6] - The technology and consumer sectors are recommended for balanced allocation, supported by the central government's emphasis on expanding domestic demand as a priority for 2026 [6] Bond Market Analysis - The government bond futures market experienced a comprehensive rise, with the 30-year main contract increasing by 0.63% to 112.140 yuan [11] - The central bank's reverse repos resulted in a net withdrawal of 143 billion yuan, maintaining a loose liquidity environment, with Shibor rates for short-term maturities mostly declining [11] Commodity Market Analysis - The commodity market saw most prices rise, with lithium carbonate leading the gains at 7.61%. The price of lithium carbonate reached 108,620 yuan per ton due to supply constraints [11] - Precious metals experienced a broad increase, with platinum and palladium prices hitting the limit up, driven by global liquidity expectations and domestic gold reserve increases [11] Trading Hotspots - The report highlights several key sectors for investment, including commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, AI applications, and consumer sectors, with a focus on their growth potential and market dynamics [12][14] - The central economic work conference's direction and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to enhance liquidity and support investment in consumer and technology sectors [12]

Core Viewpoint - China's economy has entered an era dominated by stock economy, facing higher demands for optimizing stock and seeking incremental growth due to its large economic scale and accumulated debt [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Environment and Policy Direction - The recent Central Economic Work Conference highlighted the deepening impact of external environmental changes, indicating increased confidence in responding to external pressures such as tariffs and technology blockades [4][5]. - The conference emphasized the need to practice internal strength to tackle external challenges, maintaining the principle of "seeking progress while ensuring stability" and better coordinating domestic economic work with international trade struggles [4][5]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines that major country relations significantly influence international situations, which in turn deeply affect domestic development, necessitating consideration of international trade dynamics in future economic work [5][6]. Group 2: Consumption and Investment Strategies - Expanding domestic demand is a strategic measure to effectively respond to external shocks, with a focus on boosting consumption through actions like implementing urban and rural resident income increase plans [6][7]. - The Central Economic Work Conference called for stabilizing investment and increasing the scale of central budget investments, aligning with major project initiations in the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [6][9]. - The manufacturing sector, which accounts for about 30% of global value added, faces challenges due to external demand pressures, necessitating a focus on global capacity layout and trade protectionism concerns [6][9]. Group 3: Fiscal and Monetary Policy Adjustments - The economic work for the coming year will focus on "stability and quality improvement," with a continuation of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [9][10]. - Fiscal policies will maintain necessary deficits and total debt levels, with an expected slight increase in the fiscal deficit rate from around 4% to 4.2-4.5% to support economic growth [9][10]. - Monetary policy will utilize various tools flexibly, with expectations of a 25-50 basis point reduction in reserve requirements and a 10-20 basis point interest rate cut, emphasizing the importance of reasonable price recovery [10][11]. Group 4: Innovation and Structural Reforms - The focus on innovation-driven growth is critical, with plans to establish international technology innovation centers and promote high-quality development of key industrial chains [14][15]. - The conference reiterated the importance of addressing "involution" as part of the unified national market construction, emphasizing the need for tailored approaches based on local conditions [14][15]. - Local governments are encouraged to promote new industries and models while enhancing traditional industries through new technologies, aiming for a balanced development of manufacturing and service sectors [15][17]. Group 5: Real Estate and Risk Management - The conference aimed to stabilize the real estate market through city-specific policies, inventory reduction, and promoting the construction of quality housing [17][18]. - Measures to address local government debt risks were emphasized, including proactive debt management and improving the local tax system to enhance fiscal autonomy [18].

【冠通期货研究报告】 甲醇日报：港口窄幅去库、进口压力仍存 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 17 日 【基本面分析】 库存方面：截至 2025 年 12 月 17 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 121.88 万吨， 较上一期数据减少 1.56 万吨。其中，华东地区去库，库存减少 3.10 万吨；华南 地区累库，库存增加 1.54 万吨。本周甲醇港口库存窄幅去库，周期内显性外轮 卸货计入 21.09 万吨，江内有 10.66 万吨在靠船货尚未计入库存。周内华东主流 社会库提货延续良好，浙江有烯烃工厂停车检修继续影响消费。本周华南港口库 存窄幅累库。广东地区周内进口及内贸船只继续补充，主流库区提货量尚可，库 存小幅累库。福建地区卸货速度依旧缓慢，下游刚需消耗，在进口及内贸补充下 库存略有累库。 执业资格证书编号：F03095011/Z0020103 注：本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于国家统计局官网、中国货 币网、隆众数据、Wind、金十期货网站。 本报告发布机构 【宏观面分析】 中央财办有关负责同志：扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务，明年要把握 消费的结构性变化，从供需两侧发力提振消费。 特朗普全面封 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pure benzene market is in a situation where supply exceeds demand, with significant port inventory pressure due to increased imports from South Korea. Although the subsequent inventory accumulation will gradually slow down, the market sentiment remains weak, and there is a possibility of further decline [1][4][5] - The styrene market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. With low operating rates and inventory reduction, downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs. Considering the seasonal inventory accumulation in the first quarter of next year, styrene is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis Pure Benzene - Downstream production profits: The production profit of caprolactam is -330 yuan/ton (+0), that of phenol - ketone is -952 yuan/ton (+0), that of aniline is 611 yuan/ton (-237), and that of adipic acid is -1075 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Downstream operating rates: The operating rate of caprolactam is 74.57% (-4.58%), that of phenol is 79.50% (-2.50%), that of aniline is 75.94% (-1.29%), and that of adipic acid is 59.20% (-0.80%) [1] - Market situation: Due to tariff issues, South Korea's exports of pure benzene to China have increased, resulting in concentrated arrivals of imports and significant port inventory pressure. However, the subsequent inventory accumulation will gradually slow down, presenting a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [1] Styrene - Production and utilization rate: From December 5th to 11th, China's total styrene factory output was 33.88 tons, a decrease of -1.05% from the previous period, and the factory capacity utilization rate was 68.11%, a decrease of -0.74% month - on - month [2] - Downstream consumption: The consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS of styrene was 27.24 tons, a decrease of -0.73% month - on - month [2] - Inventory situation: The styrene factory inventory was 17.60 tons, a decrease of -0.11% from last week. As of December 8th, the styrene inventory at East China ports was 14.68 tons, a decrease of -8.59% from last week, and the inventory at South China ports was 2.3 tons, an increase of +142.11% from last week [2] - Profit situation: As of December 10th, the non - integrated profit of styrene was -140 yuan/ton, and as of December 12th, the integrated profit of styrene was 425.46 yuan/ton [2] - Market outlook: There were many styrene overhauls in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory decreased. However, according to past industry rules, there is a high possibility of seasonal inventory accumulation from January to March [2] Macroeconomic Analysis - The central financial office stated that expanding domestic demand is the top priority for next year, and efforts should be made to boost consumption from both supply and demand sides by grasping the structural changes in consumption [3] - Trump has completely blocked the sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela and demanded the return of oil and other assets to the United States [3] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Pure benzene continued to decline during the day. Affected by the inventory pressure from concentrated imports, it remained in a state of strong supply and weak demand, with weak market sentiment. The continuous decline in crude oil also had a certain drag on pure benzene, and it is still treated as a weak pattern, with the possibility of further decline [4][5] - Styrene maintained inventory reduction at a low operating rate, and downstream demand was mainly for immediate needs, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand. Considering the seasonal inventory accumulation period in the first quarter of next year, styrene is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [5]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for a stable economic environment while addressing challenges and opportunities for growth, focusing on a resilient and high-quality development path for the economy [4][5]. Economic Performance and Outlook - The overall economic operation is stable, with a projected GDP growth of around 5% for 2025, leading to an economic total of approximately 140 trillion yuan [5]. - Employment remains stable, with significant growth in foreign trade and diversified exports [5]. - The economy is expected to face challenges, including external environmental changes and domestic supply-demand imbalances, but the long-term positive trends and advantages of the Chinese economy remain intact [8]. Modern Industrial System and Innovation - Continuous progress in building a modern industrial system is noted, with advancements in new productive forces and significant achievements in technology innovation, particularly in AI, biomedicine, and robotics [6]. Reform and Opening Up - New steps in reform and opening up are highlighted, including the deepening of the national unified market and active capital market [7]. - Positive progress in risk resolution in key areas, such as local government debt management and the completion of housing delivery tasks, is acknowledged [7]. Social Welfare and Employment - Enhanced social welfare measures, including childcare subsidies and free education for one year before primary school, are being implemented [8]. - The employment situation is stable, with over 12 million new urban jobs created by November, achieving the annual target ahead of schedule [29]. Macroeconomic Policy - The continuation of a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy is planned for the next year, focusing on maintaining fiscal sustainability and enhancing the effectiveness of financial support for the real economy [9][12]. - Emphasis on expanding domestic demand as a priority task, with measures to boost consumption and investment [13][14]. Regional Development and Coordination - The conference outlines strategies for promoting regional coordinated development, focusing on the integration of urban and rural areas and enhancing the development capabilities of major economic provinces [24][26]. Green Transition and Carbon Neutrality - The commitment to achieving carbon neutrality is reinforced, with plans to advance carbon peak strategies and develop a new energy system [27][28]. Real Estate Market Stability - The need for a stable real estate market is emphasized, with strategies to balance supply and demand, support enterprise transformation, and establish a new development model for the sector [31][33].

股指早报 美非农低于预期，A 股二次探底 2025 年 12 月 17 日 股指期货早报 2025.12.17 报告摘要： 股指研究员：刘钇含 邮箱：liuyh@cyqh.com.cn 投资咨询资格号：Z0015686 请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 1 海外方面，美 10 月季调非农就业人口录得-10.5 万人，大幅低 于前值 10.8；11 月季调非农就业人口录得 6.4 万人，高于预期 5 万 人；11 月失业率录得 4.6%，高于预期 4.4%；美国 10 月零售销售月 率录得零增长，不及预期 0.1%，前值由 0.2%下修为 0.1%。数据指向 美劳动力市场和消费的走弱。周二公布的数据使得市场对于美联储 1 月的降息概率提高，但并未改变 1 月不降息的整体预期。从隔夜市场 走势来看，市场对于周二重视的数据反映不够明显，在数据公布前市 场预期就业是小幅走弱，并且该预期已经在资产走势中反映，但从隔 夜市场走势来看，美元指数下跌之后反弹最终收跌；美债收益率短端 长端均回落；黄金上涨后回落，最终收跌；而美股中道指和标普收跌， 而代表科技的纳指收涨，美股的波动率却延续上涨。虽然经济数据使 得市场降息预期小幅抬高 ...

围绕"燃情四季·乐享崇川"促消费品牌，崇川区今年以来已累计举办家电"三进"、汽车"四进"等各类促销 活动46场次。特别是在出台《汽车促消费专项活动方案》后，政策效应显著：全区共有4605人申请购车 补贴，补贴金额达2736.4万元，直接带动汽车消费约8.7亿元，申请人数和补贴金额均位居全市第一。 在南通市汽车焕新补贴政策加力升级及年底传统购车旺季的双重推动下，市区汽车市场持续升温。一位 正在看车的市民表示，年底本就有换车打算，现在正好有政府补贴，经销商告知可以节省三五千元，优 惠很实在。 今年以来，崇川区通过"政府补贴、商家让利、活动引流"等多维度措施，形成了促消费的合力，不仅稳 住了消费市场的基本盘，也为持续扩大内需、推动经济高质量发展注入了强劲动力。（来源：崇川区委 宣传部） 今年以来，南通市崇川区持续开展系列促消费活动，通过深度挖掘传统消费新增量与打响服务消费新品 牌，有效激发了市场活力。数据显示，今年1—10月，全区实现社会消费品零售总额同比增长4.1%，增 幅位列全市第二，各类促消费活动累计拉动消费超过60亿元，为区域经济稳增长、扩内需提供了坚实支 撑。 在北大街一家大型家电卖场，各类政府促消费补贴 ...

| 连板数 | 晋级率 | | 2025-12-1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4#5 | 1/3=33% | 百大集团 (零售) | | | 3 #4 | 1/2=50% | 胜通能源（七腾机器人入主） | | | 2进3 | 2/8=25% | 三羊马(智能驾驶+一带一路) | | | 1讲2 | 4/29=14% | 翠微股份(金融科技+零售) | | | | | 浙江世宝(智能驾驶) | | | 其他涨停 | | 中瓷电子8天4板(光通信+商业航天) | | | | | 钧达股份4天2板 (海南+光伏) | | | | | 国机重装4天2板(核电) | | 主线热点 高盛近期走访亚洲科技供应链核心企业后发现，调研显示，AI服务器需求预计在2026年继续保持强劲增长，没有放缓迹象。全机架出货量可能增长一倍以 上。受益北美和国产算力全面加速导入液冷，早盘相关概念股继续强势表现，英维克再创历史新高，飞龙股份、大元泵业、宏盛股份等多股涨停。而在整个 算力硬件近期行情中，资金依旧围绕高速光模块以及M9上游的光器件、电子布、铜箔、钻针等细分，环旭电子、中钨高新双双创历史新高，"易中 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European route) declined collectively. The main contract EC2602 closed down 0.68%, and the far - month contracts closed down between 1% - 2%. The latest SCFIS European route settlement freight rate index rebounded 1.46 points from last week, up 0.1% month - on - month. The improvement in the trade war situation and the arrival of the shipping peak season are beneficial to the recovery of futures prices. The geopolitical situation has reached a stalemate, and its impact on freight rates has weakened in the short term. The current freight rate market is mainly affected by seasonal demand. It is recommended that investors be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1699.800, down 11.7; EC second - main contract closing price: 1124.1, down 6.3. EC2602 - EC2606 spread: 416.10, up 19.3; EC2602 - EC2604 spread: not provided; EC contract basis: - 189.34, down 13.00. EC main contract open interest: 31971, down 512 [1] 3.2 Spot Market Data - SCFIS (US West Line) (weekly): 924.34, down 36.15; SCFIS (European Line) (weekly): 1510.56, up 1.46. SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1506.46, up 108.83; CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1118.07, up 3.18; CCFI (European Line) (weekly): 1470.55, up 22.99. Baltic Dry Bulk Index (daily): 2204.00, down 11.00; Panama - type freight index (daily): 1577.00, up 67.00. Average charter price (Cape - size ship): 30050.00, down 1393.00; average charter price (Panama - type ship): not provided. Container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, up 0.07 [1] 3.3 Industry News - The central economic work conference in 2025 aims to expand domestic demand as the top priority next year, and boost consumption from both supply and demand sides. It also plans to stabilize the real estate market from both ends. The Trump administration threatens to take retaliatory measures against the EU for taxing US technology companies. The eurozone's December manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 49.2, a new low in 8 months; Germany's December manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 47.7, the worst in 10 months; France's manufacturing PMI rises to 50.6, a 40 - month high [1] 3.4 Spot Freight Quotes - Maersk's 52 - week 40 - foot container quote is 2300 US dollars, PA Alliance maintains 2800 - 3000 US dollars, MSC's spot quote is 2640 US dollars, and OA's quote is 2400 - 2700 US dollars. All shipping companies' quotes have increased compared with early December. Maersk plans to raise the 40 - foot container price to 3500 US dollars in January, and MSC plans to raise it to 3700 US dollars [1] 3.5 Geopolitical Situation - The Russia - Ukraine conflict has entered its 4th year, with battlefield confrontations and negotiation games proceeding simultaneously. Western aid to Ukraine has decreased, and the counter - offensive has not made breakthrough progress. The geopolitical conflict remains in a stalemate [1] 3.6 Economic Situation in the Eurozone - The economic climate in the eurozone continues to recover. With the boost of large - scale fiscal stimulus policies, Germany's service industry continues to recover strongly, the composite PMI runs stably above 50, and the inflation sub - item continues the downward trend, creating conditions for the European Central Bank to maintain a "patient wait - and - see" stance [1] 3.7 Key Data to Be Released - UK central bank interest rate decision as of December 18; Eurozone European Central Bank deposit mechanism interest rate as of December 18; US November unadjusted CPI annual rate; US initial jobless claims (in 10,000 people) for the week ending December 13 [1]