Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut was accompanied by hawkish signals from Chairman Powell, indicating uncertainty in future monetary policy and dampening market expectations for further rate cuts by year-end [2][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 3.75% to 4%, the lowest level in three years, marking the second consecutive meeting with a rate cut [2]. - Powell's comments shifted market sentiment, reducing the probability of a December rate cut from 95% to 65%, leading to declines in major stock indices [2][6]. - The voting outcome for the rate decision was 10 in favor and 2 against, highlighting significant internal divisions within the FOMC [5]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements - Powell noted a growing chorus of officials questioning the necessity of further rate cuts, suggesting that the most accommodative phase of the current easing cycle may be over [4][5]. - The differing opinions among committee members were evident, with some advocating for maintaining rates while others pushed for a more substantial cut [5]. Group 3: Economic Data and Uncertainty - The government shutdown has created a data vacuum, complicating decision-making and increasing uncertainty regarding economic forecasts [7][8]. - The absence of key labor market indicators has left officials without the necessary information to resolve their differences, leading to a wider range of uncertainty [8]. Group 4: Inflation and Employment Dynamics - The debate within the Fed centers on balancing inflation control with addressing economic slowdown, with concerns about overheating the economy through excessive rate cuts [11]. - Recent labor reports indicate a significant slowdown in job growth, with average monthly additions dropping to approximately 29,000, far below last year's average of 82,000 [11].

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00% during its recent monetary policy meeting, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024 [1] - There is significant uncertainty surrounding future monetary policy due to internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, the government shutdown affecting key economic data, and ongoing pressures to balance employment and inflation risks [1][2] - The market's expectation for another rate cut in December has decreased from 90% to below 70% following the Fed's lack of clear guidance on future policy [1] Group 1 - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are evident, with differing opinions on whether to cut rates further or maintain current levels, highlighting the complexity of the decision-making process [2] - The government shutdown has halted data collection and reporting, complicating the Fed's ability to assess the true state of the economy, which Powell likened to "driving in a fog" [2] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August, the highest in nearly four years, and non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, significantly below expectations [2][3] Group 2 - Private sector data indicates a continued decline in job openings, with significant layoffs announced by major companies like Amazon and Target, suggesting a troubling trend in the labor market [3] - Inflation remains a concern, with the personal consumption expenditures price index rising 2.7% year-over-year in August, exceeding the Fed's long-term target of 2% [3] - The impact of tariffs has contributed to rising core personal consumption expenditures, potentially pushing inflation rates to 3% by December [3] Group 3 - The relationship between the Federal Reserve and the White House is tense, with government officials previously pressuring the Fed for more aggressive rate cuts, which may lead to further complications in policy decisions [4] - Concerns have been raised about the potential impact of political pressures on the Fed's independence and its ability to manage inflation effectively, especially with Powell's term ending in May [5]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. government shutdown since October 1 has likely prevented the release of the October CPI data due to interrupted funding and mandatory furloughs affecting data collection[4] - The September ADP report indicated a decline of 32,000 jobs in the private sector, marking the third negative employment addition in four months, significantly below market expectations[4] - The September CPI data showed a year-over-year increase of 3% for both nominal and core CPI, which was below market expectations of 3.1%[30] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement consecutive rate cuts in the October and December FOMC meetings, with a potential total of 50 basis points reduction remaining in 2025[5] - The median forecast for the terminal interest rates in 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 3.6%, 3.4%, and 3.1% respectively, indicating a continued easing policy[4] - If the government shutdown ends before the December FOMC meeting, the Fed may receive three months of employment data, which could complicate the policy direction but is unlikely to alter the rate cut plans significantly[4] Group 3: Market Conditions - The Treasury's general fund account balance has recovered from a low of $300 billion to a target level of $800 billion, while reserves have decreased by approximately $400 billion due to the ongoing government shutdown[5] - The market is expected to experience a trend of easing policies, which may help stabilize market volatility following recent tensions in U.S.-China relations and liquidity concerns[5] - The external macroeconomic environment is anticipated to remain favorable, reflected in a moderate decline in the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields[5] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Economic fundamentals remain uncertain, with potential risks from tariff policies and geopolitical developments that could impact the pace of rate cuts[6] - The ongoing government shutdown poses a risk to timely data releases and could hinder the Fed's decision-making process regarding monetary policy[4]

今日周四(10月30日)亚盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于47.42一线上方，今日开盘于47.51美元/盎司，截至发 稿，伦敦银暂报47.51美元/盎司，下跌0.02%，最高触及47.95美元/盎司，最低下探47.24美元/盎司，目 前来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，美联储正在密切关注可能正在恶化的就业市场状况，因为低收 入家庭正出现更多压力迹象。鲍威尔指出，对于近期裁员公告数量上升的情况，"我们正在非常仔细地 关注"，因为这可能会削弱就业创造能力。 不过他补充说，目前这些裁员公告尚未导致失业救济申请数量上升。他还表示："我们认为确实存在这 样一种情况——高收入家庭的状况良好、支出强劲，而其他群体则正面临日益严峻的挑战。 另外"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos评美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话，他说："鲍威尔的新闻发布会表明， FOMC整体上并不认同市场此前对12月降息的高度定价。"鲍威尔表示："对于12月如何行动，我们的看 法存在很大分歧。"他强调，12月的降息"不应被视为已成定局。 事实上，远非如此。"这已经超出了他们通常所说的免责声明，即"政策并非按照预设路径 ...

宏观 10 月 FOMC：鲍威尔意外表示 12 月 降息仍有变数 证券研究报告 联储 10 月会议如期降息 25bp，并宣布 12 月 1 日开始结束缩表，但鲍威尔 称 12 月降息仍可能有变数（far from foregone decision），表态偏鹰派。 联储 10 月会议如期降息 25bp，基准利率降至 3.75%-4%，Miran 要求降息 50bp，而堪萨斯联储主席施密德要求不降息；同时，联储宣布从 12 月 1 日 起停止缩表。会前市场普遍定价联储 12 月会议再降息 25bp，但鲍威尔在记 者会中表示，12 月降息仍可能有变数（far from foregone decision），需观 察后续数据再做决定。鲍威尔表态偏鹰派导致市场降息预期回落，美元有所 回升。截至北京时间凌晨 4:30，相较会议前，对 2025 年 12 月、2026 年降 息预期分别收窄 4bp、1bp 至 17bp、69bp；2y、10y 美债收益率分别上行 8bp、6bp 至 3.59%、4.07%；美元指数上涨 0.4%至 99.2；标普 500、道指 分别下跌 0.2%、0.4%，纳指基本持平，黄金下跌 1.1 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4.00% during the October meeting[6] - The Fed announced the cessation of quantitative tightening (QT) starting December 1, 2025[2] - The voting outcome was 10-2, indicating significant internal division regarding future rate cuts[6] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed's economic assessment shifted from "moderated in the first half of the year" to "expanding at a moderate pace"[6] - Employment growth is slowing, but there are no signs of accelerated job market weakness[2] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to become more evident in the first quarter of next year[2] Group 3: Future Rate Cut Expectations - There is a high probability of pausing rate cuts in December due to ongoing government shutdown issues and delayed economic data[2] - The likelihood of resuming rate cuts may increase after the May 2026 Fed chair transition, especially if a dovish candidate is appointed[2] - The Fed's internal divisions and cautious approach to data-driven decisions add uncertainty to future monetary policy[2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the U.S. stock market, particularly the mixed results of major indices following comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding future interest rate cuts and economic conditions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the first consecutive rate cuts in a year [3]. - Powell indicated that a further rate cut in December is not guaranteed, highlighting uncertainty in the Fed's future policy direction [3][14]. - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with GDP growth in the first half of the year at 1.6%, down from 2.4% the previous year [5]. Group 2: Labor Market and Economic Indicators - The labor market appears to be cooling, with a notable slowdown in job growth since the beginning of the year, attributed to factors such as reduced immigration and declining labor force participation [6][8]. - Despite the delay in official employment data, evidence suggests that layoffs and hiring remain at low levels, although perceptions of job opportunities are declining [7]. - The overall economic activity growth may be slightly better than expected, driven by stronger consumer spending, while investment in equipment and intangible assets continues to grow [6]. Group 3: Inflation and Price Pressures - Inflation has significantly decreased from mid-2022 but remains slightly above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, with the overall PCE price index rising by 2.8% over the past 12 months [9][10]. - Higher tariffs are contributing to price increases in certain goods, leading to upward pressure on overall inflation [11][12]. - Powell noted that while short-term inflation risks are skewed upward, the risks to employment are skewed downward, creating a challenging economic environment [13].

鲍威尔在货币政策会议结束后举行的记者会上说，"联邦政府'停摆'将持续对经济活动构成压力"。不 过，"停摆"结束后这些影响"将会逆转"。 新华社华盛顿10月29日电（记者徐静 施春）美国联邦储备委员会29日宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间 再次下调25个基点到3.75%至4.00%之间。美联储主席鲍威尔当天表示，美联储12月货币政策会议进一 步降息并非板上钉钉。 美联储委员会当天结束为期两天的货币政策会议。其决策机构联邦公开市场委员会在会后发表声明说， 现有指标显示，美国经济活动一直以温和的速度扩张，今年就业增长放缓，失业率略有上升，通胀率自 年初以来有所上升，目前仍处于较高水平。鉴于风险平衡变化，决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个 基点。 声明说，联邦公开市场委员会在考虑对联邦基金利率目标区间作进一步调整时，将仔细评估最新数据、 不断变化的经济前景以及风险平衡。如果出现可能阻碍目标实现的风险，将随时酌情调整货币政策立 场。 这是美联储继9月17日降息25个基点后再次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第五次降息。联邦公开市场委员 会12名委员中10人投票赞成降息25个基点，斯蒂芬·米兰倾向于降息50个基点，杰弗里·施 ...

未来政策路径的不确定性正在急剧上升。鲍威尔在会后表示，对于12月是否继续降息，委员会内部"存 在明显分歧"，并强调进一步降息"绝不是板上钉钉"，货币政策并不会沿既定轨道自动前进。 媒体在节目中与驻联储记者进行讨论时指出，此次降息已是今年第二次动作，而在今年7月之前，联储 内部的主流观点仍认为就业市场强劲、主要风险仍在通胀。但进入第三季度以来，企业招聘明显放缓， 与此同时通胀数据虽仍高于目标，却有逐步回落迹象。这为联储连续降息提供了政策窗口，也意味着政 策重心出现从"防通胀"向"稳就业"的微妙转向。 另一个影响决策的重要背景是美国政府持续停摆。尽管联储自身不依赖国会拨款，其政策判断大量依赖 由劳工统计局和经济分析局等政府机构提供的数据，而这些机构员工已被迫停工，导致关键经济指标发 布延迟甚至缺失。记者Amara Omeokwe指出，在缺乏官方数据的情况下，联储只能更多依赖私营部门 发布的消费者信心、工业活动、与就业相关的多数替代指标；然而，这些指标覆盖面与一致性均不及官 方统计，令政策制定存在"视野受限"的风险。 智通财经APP获悉，美联储周三宣布再度降息25个基点，这也是继9月会议首次降息25个基点之后的连 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second rate cut of the year and the second consecutive cut since September [1][3][5]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The decision to cut rates was not unanimously supported by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with two members voting against the cut, highlighting increasing internal divisions within the Fed [5]. - The Fed will end its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) on December 1, after three and a half years of implementation [5][6]. Economic Indicators - Current indicators suggest that the U.S. economy is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low [6][9]. - Inflation has shown signs of recovery and remains slightly elevated, with the Fed closely monitoring risks to its dual mandate of employment and price stability [6][11]. Powell's Statements - Powell indicated that the economic outlook has not changed significantly, but the government shutdown could temporarily hinder economic activity [9][10]. - He emphasized that the decision for a rate cut in December is not guaranteed and that the Fed may need to be cautious due to a lack of data during the government shutdown [10][11]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's press conference, U.S. stock indices experienced volatility, with the Nasdaq initially dropping but later recovering, while the Dow and S&P 500 saw reduced losses [13][14]. - The dollar index rose sharply, reflecting market adjustments to the Fed's announcements and Powell's comments [16][19]. Bond Market Impact - The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note increased by 10 basis points, while the yield on the ten-year note also rose, indicating market reactions to Powell's "hawkish" remarks [19].