近期，美联储政策制定面临数十年未见的复杂局面。其双重目标——就业最大化与物价稳定之间出现明 显冲突，导致内部关于利率路径的分歧持续加深。有分析指出，这一状况可能延续至2026年。 德意志银行美国经济研究主管表示，尽管存在分歧，美联储今年仍完成了三次利率下调。然而，若未来 通胀持续而就业市场疲软，新任主席凝聚共识的难度将加大。虽然进一步调整利率可能是主要方向，但 也存在委员会更倾向收紧政策的风险。 随着就业数据进一步变化，美联储在秋季为利率下调做了铺垫。但由于政府数据发布一度中断，决策者 部分依赖民间数据评估，尤其在通胀测量方面面临挑战。 至今年末，政策分歧更加明显。尽管实现了第三次利率下调，但三名委员投下反对票——两人因担心通 胀而希望维持利率，另一人则支持更大幅度下调。另有六位非投票委员也倾向暂不调整。目前，对关税 引发的通胀走势判断仍不一致：有观点认为压力将在明年一季度见顶回落，也有委员担心其可能更具持 续性。 进入新一年，在已完成三次利率下调且通胀仍高于目标的情况下，政策委员会暗示将进入观察期，再考 虑后续行动。近期有通胀指标显示涨幅放缓，但因数据统计曾受中断影响，其准确性受到部分委员质 疑。目前失业率 ...

Luzzetti表示，"虽然未来的路径最可能是进一步降息，但也存在风险情景，即下一任主席最终面对的是 一个倾向于加息的委员会。" Huntington Bank首席经济学家Ian Wyatt补充道，"新主席在这种环境下将面临极其艰难的协调工作并建 立共识，特别是如果他们的观点与大多数理事严重脱节的话。" 特朗普的影响力与日俱增 2025年，美国总统特朗普对经济政策进行了一系列令人眼花缭乱的调整，从过山车般的新关税税率到关 闭边境以抑制移民，这些举措导致美联储在今年大部分时间里处于按兵不动的状态，官员们试图理清这 对经济、通胀和就业的影响。 美联储的观望模式让特朗普感到受挫，他猛烈抨击美联储要求降低利率，并试图利用技术细节罢免鲍威 尔。因政策分歧而解雇鲍威尔的威胁引发了人们对危及美联储独立性的担忧，并震动了市场。 虽然特朗普没有解雇鲍威尔，但他以涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈为由试图解雇美联储理事库克，此事仍在法庭诉 讼中，最高法院将于明年初审理。 美联储在过去一年里见证了其国会授权的两个目标——就业最大化和物价稳定发生冲突，这是自20世纪 70年代滞胀以来未曾见过的局面，且导致美联储内部出现了多年未见的分裂，关于利率政策截 ...

The US economy surged over the summer, the commerce department announced on Tuesday in one of the final snapshots of the nation’s finances to be released in 2025.Gross domestic product (GDP) – a broad measure of the value of goods and services – rose at an annualized rate of 4.3% over the third quarter, far higher than expected and its fastest rate in two years.The surprisingly strong growth “reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. unemployment rate reached a four-year high of 4.6% in November, while Trump claimed he could reduce it to zero with a single phone call, highlighting a disconnect between his statements and the economic reality faced by the public [1][2][9]. Employment Market Statistics - The unemployment rate is reported at 4.6%, not the 4.5% claimed by Trump [3][11]. - Trump suggested that re-hiring 271,000 federal workers could lower the unemployment rate to 2.5%, but this calculation is flawed; it would actually require hiring 3.5 million additional workers to achieve that rate [3][11]. - To reach a zero unemployment rate, 7.8 million new jobs would need to be created, a feat never achieved historically [3][11]. - The unemployment rate has increased from 4% at the start of Trump's presidency to 4.6%, with 982,000 more unemployed individuals in November compared to January [3][11]. Employment Market Reality - The U.S. economy has seen job losses in three of the past six months, with 2025 projected to have the worst job growth since 2020 [4][13]. - The voluntary resignation rate dropped to a five-year low in October, indicating a stagnation in the job market [14]. - There is a mismatch between available jobs and the skills of the unemployed, particularly affecting low-income workers, with the unemployment rate for Black Americans surpassing 8% for the first time in four years [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall macro - environment is still relatively loose, with a mild slowdown in the employment market and no obvious signs of strong inflation, which is favorable for precious metal pricing [4]. - Platinum and palladium are in a tight - balance pattern. The demand gap for platinum will remain, while the demand gap for palladium is gradually improving [4]. - The news that the EU is preparing to relax the rules on banning internal combustion engine vehicles has boosted the future demand prospects of platinum and palladium, releasing price elasticity [5]. - Platinum and palladium may operate in the context of a tight fundamental situation and a loose macro - environment. It is not recommended to chase high prices, and the strategy of buying on dips along the MA5 daily line is suggested. Also, consider the opportunity to go long on platinum and short on palladium, and keep an eye on options [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Macro - aspect**: This week, multiple important economic data were released, showing a continuous game between economic data and the Fed's policy. The US November non - farm payrolls slightly rebounded, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, reaching a four - year high. Weak PMI data on Wednesday strengthened the expectation of economic slowdown, boosting interest - rate cut trading. The unexpectedly slow CPI data on Thursday only brought a short - term market rally, and then officials questioned the data's authenticity due to the government shutdown. Fed "third - in - command" Williams' hawkish speech on Friday reversed the optimistic sentiment brought by the CPI data, pushing up the US dollar index. The uncertainty of the Fed chairperson's selection also affects the market. Overall, the employment market is cooling moderately, inflation shows no obvious signs of strengthening, and the macro - environment is still loose, which is beneficial for precious metal pricing [4]. - **Fundamental - aspect**: There is limited high - frequency fundamental data for platinum and palladium in the market. From a quarterly and annual perspective, platinum and palladium are in a tight - balance pattern. The demand gap for platinum will remain, while that for palladium is gradually improving [4]. - **News - aspect**: Bloomberg reported that the EU is preparing to relax the rules on banning internal combustion engine vehicles starting from 2035, which boosts the future demand prospects of platinum and palladium and releases price elasticity [5]. - **Futures market**: Due to the impact of news and capital allocation, the prices of non - ferrous metals in the overseas market fell on the evening of December 12, while the price of platinum soared. Affected by this, the domestic platinum price opened high and went higher on the 15th, and finally reached the first daily limit. Subsequently, the trading atmosphere in the market continued to heat up, and the trading volume increased significantly. It reached the daily limit again on the 17th, and the highest price on the 18th was close to the daily limit [5]. - **Trading strategies**: - **Single - side trading**: Platinum and palladium may operate in the context of a tight fundamental situation and a loose macro - environment. It is not recommended to chase high prices. The strategy of buying on dips along the MA5 daily line is suggested. Due to the large price fluctuations and high contract leverage, and the lack of night trading in the domestic market, there is a risk of gap - opening when the domestic market opens. It is recommended to manage positions well [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider the opportunity to go long on platinum and short on palladium [5]. - **Options**: Keep an eye on options [5]. 3.2 Trading and Arbitrage Data Tracking - **Weekly trading data of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange**: As of the close on Friday (December 19), the total positions of the PT contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 33,474 lots, a net increase of 22,304 lots compared with the previous week, and the weekly trading volume was approximately 273.94 billion yuan. The total positions of the PD contracts were 14,011 lots, a net increase of 10,548 lots compared with the previous week, and the weekly trading volume was approximately 143.09 billion yuan [24]. - **Spot arbitrage**: - **Platinum**: There are conditions for arbitrage by buying Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot and selling long - term Guangzhou Futures Exchange contracts for delivery, with a theoretical profit of 10.76 yuan/gram (compared with - 0.77 yuan/gram last week). There are also conditions for arbitrage by buying London platinum spot and selling long - term Guangzhou Futures Exchange contracts for delivery, with a theoretical profit of 45.98 yuan/gram (compared with 5.09 yuan/gram last week) [27]. - **Palladium**: There are conditions for arbitrage by buying domestic palladium spot and selling long - term Guangzhou Futures Exchange contracts for delivery, with a theoretical profit of 47.93 yuan/gram (compared with 0.97 yuan/gram last week). There are also conditions for arbitrage by buying London palladium spot and selling long - term Guangzhou Futures Exchange contracts for delivery, with a theoretical profit of 58.72 yuan/gram (compared with 0.87 yuan/gram last week) [26][27]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Tracking - **Platinum supply and demand**: - **Supply**: It is expected that in 2025, both supply and demand for platinum will decline. However, due to the different bases and decline rates in 2024, there will still be a supply - demand gap of 26 tons in the platinum market, causing the above - ground inventory to continue to decline for the third year to 93 tons, equivalent to about 4.5 months of demand [30][32]. - **Demand**: The demand structure of platinum is relatively healthy. Although the demand for platinum has increased rapidly in some areas, the demand in the main areas such as the automotive, chemical, and jewelry industries remains relatively stable. In the future, platinum prices may break through further if there is a more severe structural shortage of spot or further digestion of the current above - ground inventory, and market investors believe that platinum will experience continuous high - speed growth in specific areas [32][33]. - **Palladium supply and demand**: - **Supply and demand situation**: It is expected that in 2025, both the supply and demand of palladium will decline. The decline in the demand side is greater than that in the supply side, and there will be a supply - demand gap of 0.5 tons, resulting in a tight - balance state. The demand tension is relatively better than that of platinum [35][36]. - **Inventory situation**: According to WPIC, the above - ground inventory of palladium is estimated to be about 350 tons by 2024, which is the lowest level in more than half a century but still equivalent to 14 months of demand. From the perspective of supply - demand balance, although the palladium price is near the cost line and at the bottom of the cycle, the fundamental factors may provide limited support for the palladium price in the short term. In the future, the palladium price may fluctuate significantly due to factors such as the macro - environment, the linkage with platinum prices, market sentiment, and structural spot shortages [36]. - **CFTC positions**: - **Platinum**: As of December 9, the long positions of platinum asset management institutions in CFTC were 37,401 lots, the short positions were 22,507 lots, and the net long positions were 14,894 lots (a net increase of 4,528 lots compared with the previous period). The long positions of platinum commercial institutions were 16,228 lots, the short positions were 41,547 lots, and the net short positions were 25,319 lots (a net increase of 2,033 lots compared with the previous period) [38][39]. - **Palladium**: As of December 9, the long positions of palladium asset management institutions in CFTC were 7,832 lots, the short positions were 7,851 lots, and the net long positions were - 19 lots (a net increase of 695 lots compared with the previous period). The long positions of palladium commercial institutions were 5,818 lots, the short positions were 7,538 lots, and the net short positions were 1,720 lots (a net increase of 229 lots compared with the previous period) [41][47]. - **Inventory situation**: - **Platinum**: As of December 19, 2025, the total CME platinum inventory was 624,733.09 troy ounces, an increase of 10,171.75 troy ounces compared with December 12. The registered inventory remained unchanged, and the unregistered inventory increased by 10,171.746 troy ounces [48]. - **Palladium**: As of December 19, 2025, the total CME palladium inventory was 189,090.40 troy ounces, a decrease of 139.30 troy ounces compared with December 12. The registered inventory increased by 2,676.286 troy ounces, and the unregistered inventory decreased by 2,815.59 troy ounces [52]. - **Lease rates**: - **Platinum**: The report provides the annualized lease rates for one - month, three - month, six - month, and one - year platinum leases [56][57]. - **Palladium**: The report provides the annualized lease rates for one - month, three - month, six - month, and one - year palladium leases [59][60].

在美国政府结束"停摆"后，通胀数据意外低于预期。 据央视新闻报道，美国劳工部12月18日发布的数据显示，今年11月美国消费者价格指数 （CPI）同比上涨2.7%，低于9月的3%。剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，11月核心消费者 价格指数同比上涨2.6%。 明年1月美联储降息的可能性仍然较低，但交易员已开始上调明年3月降息预期。芝商所美联储 观察工具显示，明年3月降息概率为60%，高于此前一天的约50%。 记者丨吴斌 编辑丨张星 题：首先，因为政府停摆，10月数据未采集，因此没有10月CPI数据，11月CPI只有同比数 据，没有环比数据。 其次，由于政府停摆11月14日才结束，数据收集工作滞后，部分价格调查、样本采集和行政数 据输入在时间上存在滞后或集中补报，一些服务类、政府相关支出和监管价格的更新可能被推 迟或以估算值替代。例如，10—11月居住CPI环比均值接近0%，而前几个月环比增速在0.2% —0.3%，出现明显的误差，表明在部分数据缺失的情况下，劳工部在技术处理上的问题令数 据存在失真。 尽管这份因政府停摆而推迟发布的报告显示物价压力有所缓和，但考虑到报告的编制存在问 题，经济学家持谨慎态度，这一积极 ...

美联储的会议室里，12位委员刚刚结束了一场激烈的辩论。最终，9票赞成，3票反对，这是自2019年以来，美联储内部出现最多反对票的一次降息决定。一 位委员甚至要求降息幅度翻倍，而另外两位则坚持维持利率不变。 就在结果公布后几小时，特朗普公开表达了他的不满："幅度太小，本可以更大。"这种内外交困的局面，让美联储主席鲍威尔的决策显得如履薄冰。 特朗普甚至明确把"立即降息"作为考察下任美联储主席的标准。这给美联储带来了前所未有的政治压力。现任主席鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月结束，特朗 普可能在数周内决定其继任者。 美联储宣布降息25个基点，将利率下调至3.5?.75%的区间。这已经是2025年内的第三次降息，也是自2024年9月以来的第六次。表面上看，这只是一次常规 操作，但背后的故事远非如此简单。 美联储内部已经分裂成三个阵营。以理事斯蒂芬·米兰为代表的激进派认为，应该一次性降息50个基点，因为就业形势比官方数据显示的更加严峻。另一 边，芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比和堪萨斯城联储主席施密德则属于谨慎派，他们坚持不降息，担心过快放松货币政策可能重新点燃通胀。而主流派则支持25个 基点的温和降息，认为这既能应对就业风险，又 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国消费者信心在12月小幅回升，但升幅低于市场预期，整体情绪仍处于低位，反 映出高生活成本和就业前景不明朗持续压制消费者信心。 为防止就业市场进一步恶化，美联储本月早些时候连续第三次下调利率。不过，决策层在明年的利率路 径上仍存在分歧，需要在支撑就业与防范通胀反弹之间寻求平衡。 密歇根大学周五公布的数据显示，12月消费者信心指数终值上升1.9点至52.9，略低于经济学家给出的 53.5的预期中值。该指数较前月改善，但仍显著低迷。 密歇根大学消费者调查主任Joanne Hsu在声明中表示，尽管年底出现一些改善迹象，消费者信心仍比 2024 年 12 月低近 30%，家庭收支压力仍然主导着消费者对经济的看法。 从分项指标看，当前状况指数下滑至50.4，创历史新低，而预期指数则升至四个月高点。消费者对购买 汽车、家电等大额商品的当前购买条件评价恶化至纪录最低水平，显示高物价环境仍显著抑制消费意 愿。 分析指出，生活成本高企以及对就业市场的担忧，是拖累消费者信心徘徊在历史低位附近的主要原因。 个人财务状况的不安情绪，已成为未来家庭支出前景面临的重要风险因素，尽管迄今为止消费整体仍保 持韧性。 就业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting between Federal Reserve Governor Waller and former President Trump regarding the Fed Chair position was productive, focusing on labor market issues and employment growth [1] Group 1: Meeting Details - The interview took place at the presidential residence shortly before Trump's national address on economic issues [1] - Treasury Secretary Basant, White House Chief of Staff Wiles, and Deputy Chief of Staff Scavino also attended the interview [1] Group 2: Candidate Updates - BlackRock's Rick Riedel is scheduled to interview at Mar-a-Lago in the last week of the year [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman is no longer a candidate for the position [1] Group 3: Economic Discussion - The dialogue between Waller and Trump regarding employment indicates that concerns about Trump seeking a candidate who would yield to his wishes on interest rates are unfounded [1] - Officials emphasized that the economic topics discussed during the interviews were broad in scope [1]

17日，美联储理事沃勒在CNBC上表示，鉴于就业市场趋于疲软，美联储仍有降息空间，可以采取"稳步、逐步"的方式将政策利率降至中性水平。 他强调， 基于当前的经济前景，"没有必要急于降息"，美联储可以采取适度步伐，无需采取激烈的行动。 沃勒指出，目前的利率水平比中性利率高出50到100个基点。关于通胀前景，他认为通胀已得到控制且不会重新加速上升，预计未来几个月将继续回落。同 时，他提到就业市场虽然表现出"非常疲软"且增长接近于零，但并未出现"断崖式下滑"。 沃勒指出，美联储此前的降息举措已经对就业市场产生了一定的帮助。就业市场发出的信号表明美联储应继续降息。展望未来，他希望2026年的经济形势会更 好，从而进一步提振就业市场。至于人工智能对就业的长远影响，他表示目前尚不清楚。 通胀预期回落且可控 在物价稳定性方面，沃勒展现出较强的信心。他断言通胀不会重新加速上升，并认为通胀已得到控制，美联储将继续保持这种控制力。尽管目前的通胀率仍高 于目标水平，但他预计在未来几个月内数据会进一步回落。 关键在于通胀预期的稳定性。沃勒强调，通胀预期保持稳定，这为政策调整提供了基础。他明确表示，仅凭通胀预期趋缓这一因素，就足以支持 ...