Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August decreased by 0.4% year-on-year and remained flat month-on-month, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][6] - The data aligns with market expectations, and attention should be paid to the impact of seasonal consumption, special bond fund implementation, and overseas oil price fluctuations in September and October [1][7] CPI Analysis - The overall consumer market remained stable in August, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [3] - Food prices dropped significantly, with pork, fresh vegetables, and eggs decreasing by 16.1%, 15.2%, and 14.2% year-on-year, respectively, contributing to a downward pressure on the CPI [4] - The core CPI's increase was influenced by rising prices of gold and platinum jewelry, which rose by 36.7% and 29.8% year-on-year, respectively [3] PPI Analysis - The PPI ended an eight-month downward trend, stabilizing month-on-month after a 0.2% decline in the previous month [5][6] - Improvements in supply-demand relationships led to price increases in certain energy and raw material sectors, such as coal processing and black metal smelting [5] - The PPI's year-on-year decline of 2.9% is the first narrowing since March, attributed to a lower comparison base from the previous year and the implementation of proactive macro policies [6] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the PPI may enter a recovery phase starting in August due to favorable low base conditions from the previous year [6] - The ongoing optimization of market competition and the rise of new consumption demands are expected to support price improvements in various sectors [6] - The low inflation environment continues to provide room for monetary easing, which may help marginally restore corporate profit expectations [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 10, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5854, up 0.27%. The market is expected to operate with a weakening trend in a volatile manner, and investors are advised to control risks. The "anti - involution" policy effect is showing, and the year - on - year decline of the August PPI is expected to narrow. The production has been on the rise since mid - May, and the inventory has dropped to a neutral level for 5 consecutive weeks. The downstream iron - water production has significantly declined due to parade production control. [2] - On September 10, the ferrosilicon 2511 contract was reported at 5628, down 0.04%. The market is also expected to operate with a weakening trend in a volatile manner, and investors are advised to control risks. After the previous profit improvement, the production has rapidly increased, and the inventory is at a neutral level. The cost support has strengthened due to the increase in the prices of semi - coke and electricity, while the steel demand expectation remains weak. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM (manganese - silicon) main contract closing price was 5854 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; SF (ferrosilicon) main contract closing price was 5628 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. SM futures contract holdings increased by 2202 hands to 575,233 hands, while SF futures contract holdings decreased by 10,924 hands to 421,689 hands. [2] - The net positions of the top 20 in manganese - silicon decreased by 7703 hands to - 75,843 hands, and the net positions of the top 20 in ferrosilicon decreased by 437 hands to - 33,181 hands. [2] - The SM 5 - 1 month contract spread decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton, and the SF 5 - 1 month contract spread increased by 10 yuan/ton to 114 yuan/ton. The SM warehouse receipts decreased by 122 to 62,288, while the SF warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 17,330. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the spot market, the price of FeMn68Si18 in Inner Mongolia was 5670 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of FeMn68Si18 in Guizhou was 5680 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of FeSi75 - B in Qinghai increased by 60 yuan/ton to 5280 yuan/ton, and the price of FeSi75 - B in Ningxia increased by 30 yuan/ton to 5390 yuan/ton. [2] - The weekly average of the manganese - silicon index was 5620 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan; the SF main contract basis was - 238 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; the SM main contract basis was - 184 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African Mn38 lumps at Tianjin Port was 24 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98% in the northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of secondary metallurgical coke in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium - sized in Shenmu) was 680 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The manganese ore port inventory increased by 1.8 million tons to 4.432 billion tons. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of manganese - silicon enterprises decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 46.45%, and the weekly operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 0.20 percentage points to 36.34%. [2] - The weekly supply of manganese - silicon decreased by 560 tons to 212,835 tons, while the weekly supply of ferrosilicon increased by 1900 tons to 115,000 tons. [2] - The semi - monthly inventory of manganese - silicon manufacturers increased by 11,500 tons to 160,500 tons, and the semi - monthly inventory of ferrosilicon manufacturers increased by 3650 tons to 66,560 tons. [2] - The monthly inventory days of manganese - silicon in national steel mills increased by 0.74 days to 14.98 days, and the monthly inventory days of ferrosilicon in national steel mills increased by 0.42 days to 14.67 days. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.80 percentage points to 80.38%, and the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 4.23 percentage points to 85.77%. [2] - The monthly crude steel output decreased by 352.58 million tons to 7965.82 million tons. [2] - The weekly demand for manganese - silicon in the five major steel types decreased by 2988 tons to 123,668 tons, and the weekly demand for ferrosilicon in the five major steel types decreased by 497.50 tons to 20,076.10 tons. [2] 3.6 Industry News - The US government announced preliminary benchmark revision data, with the largest downward revision since 2000. The non - farm employment in the US was revised down by 911,000 for the year ending in March, equivalent to an average monthly decrease of nearly 76,000. [2] - During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, China's manufacturing added - value increment is expected to reach 8 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 30% of the global total, and the overall scale has remained the world's first for 15 consecutive years. [2] - A JPMorgan trader said that the day of the Fed's September interest rate cut would be the time when "the favorable news is exhausted." If the Fed cuts interest rates as expected at the September 17 meeting, this already - digested positive news may prompt investors to take profits and temporarily withdraw. [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation has timely约谈ed major food - delivery platforms, and the platforms have promised to abide by laws and regulations, prevent unfair competition, resist vicious subsidies, and promote the standardized and orderly development of the industry. [2]

具体来看，8月CPI同比下降0.4%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.9%，涨幅连续第四个月扩大。工业生产者出 厂价格指数（PPI）环比由上月下降0.2%转为持平；同比下降2.9%，降幅比上月收窄0.7个百分点。 接受券商中国记者采访的市场人士认为，核心CPI涨幅连续扩大释放物价运行积极信号，但CPI较长时间在0值附近运行， 后续物价表现改善还需要持续提振居民消费需求。 食品价格等拖累CPI同比、环比表现 8月份，CPI同比下降0.4%。其中，食品价格下降4.3%，非食品价格上涨0.5%。1—8月平均，CPI比上年同期下降0.1%。 对于CPI同比由平转降，国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟分析，这主要是上年同期对比基数走高叠加当月食品价格涨 幅低于季节性水平所致。 最新数据显示，8月份受基数走高影响和食品价格拖累，居民消费价格指数（CPI）走弱，但与工业品价格相关指标改 善，表明国内市场竞争秩序持续优化，部分行业供需关系改善。 光大证券研究所分析师刘星辰表示，从结构来看，扣除能源的工业消费品价格上涨主要受三方面因素带动。一是，受黄 金价格上涨带动金饰品和铂金饰品价格涨幅扩大；二是，7月以来，整治低价 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% [1] - Food prices are under dual constraints from weak downstream Producer Price Index (PPI) and overall market demand, leading to a projected year-on-year decline in CPI of 0.4% [1] - Wholesale agricultural product prices increased by 1.9% month-on-month in August, with vegetable prices rising by 8.0% due to adverse weather conditions [1] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to remain flat month-on-month in August, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to approximately -2.9% [2] - The recovery in commodity prices, along with a low base effect, may support a slight rebound in PPI, with significant increases in the prices of steel and coal observed [3] - However, the decline in international oil prices and low capacity utilization in midstream and downstream sectors may limit the extent of PPI recovery [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the national narrow fiscal revenue growth has turned positive, reflecting a stable improvement in the economy [3][4]. Fiscal Revenue Overview - In the first seven months of this year, the national general public budget revenue reached 135,839 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1% [3]. - The revenue growth rate has shown a decline this year, but the rate of decline is gradually narrowing, with July's revenue growth reaching a new high of 2.6% [3][4]. Tax Revenue Analysis - National tax revenue for the first seven months was 110,933 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, but the decline is narrowing [4]. - In July, tax revenue was 18,018 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 5%, marking a continuous recovery since April [4]. - The overall tax revenue growth rate remains lower than the economic growth rate, which was 5.3% in the first half of the year [4]. Specific Tax Types Performance - Major tax types showed improvement: domestic value-added tax increased by 3%, domestic consumption tax by 2.1%, and personal income tax by 8.8% [5]. - Corporate income tax decreased by 0.4%, but the decline was significantly less than in the first half of the year [5]. - Land value-added tax and deed tax saw double-digit declines due to a sluggish real estate market [5]. Non-Tax Revenue Trends - Non-tax revenue for the first seven months was 24,906 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2%, significantly lower than the previous year's 12% [6]. - Government fund revenue, primarily from land sales, decreased by 0.7% to 23,124 billion yuan [7]. Fiscal Expenditure Insights - General public budget expenditure reached 160,737 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, supporting economic stability [8]. - Social security, education, and health expenditures grew by 9.8%, 5.7%, and 5.3% respectively, exceeding the average growth rate [8]. Government Fund Expenditure - Government fund budget expenditure expanded significantly to 54,287 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.7%, directed towards major project construction and new sectors [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that in 2024, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% compared to the previous year, while the national Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.2% [1] Group 2 - The CPI reflects the overall change in consumer prices, suggesting a slight inflationary trend in consumer goods [1] - The PPI indicates a decline in the prices that producers receive for their goods, which may signal challenges in the manufacturing sector [1]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Sichuan - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Sichuan decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Month-on-month, the CPI shifted from flat in the previous month to an increase of 0.4% [1] - Fresh vegetable prices fell by 3.9% month-on-month, while fresh fruit prices decreased by 1.7%. Conversely, pork prices saw a slight increase of 0.5% month-on-month [1] - The decline in fresh produce prices was attributed to high temperatures and low rainfall affecting production, but the summer harvest season and sufficient market supply led to lower prices [1] - The slight increase in pork prices was supported by industry measures to reduce production capacity and improve supply-demand balance [1] - Due to the peak travel season, prices for air tickets, travel agency services, hotel accommodations, and vehicle rentals increased significantly, with air ticket prices rising by 20.1% month-on-month [1] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) - In July, the Producer Price Index (PPI) continued its downward trend, decreasing by 3.5% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] - Month-on-month, the PPI fell by 1.2%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2]

此前发布的数据显示，7月份，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比由上月下降0.1%转为上涨0.4%，同比持平，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上 涨0.8%，涨幅连续3个月扩大。工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比下降0.2%，环比降幅比上月收窄0.2个百分点，为3月份以来首次收窄，同比 下降3.6%，降幅与上月相同。 前述数据表明，随着扩内需政策效应持续显现，消费领域价格继续呈现积极变化，虽然受季节性因素叠加国际贸易环境不确定性影响，工业生产 者出厂价格仍为下降，但国内市场竞争秩序持续优化带动部分行业价格改善。 发布会预告。 据中国网消息，国务院新闻办公室将于2025年8月15日（星期五）上午10时举行新闻发布会，请国家统计局新闻发言人、总经济师、国民经济综 合统计司司长付凌晖介绍2025年7月份国民经济运行情况，并答记者问。 （文章来源：证券时报） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming press conference by the State Council Information Office, where the National Bureau of Statistics will present the economic performance for July 2025, highlighting key economic indicators such as CPI and PPI [2]. Economic Indicators Summary - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline of 0.1%, while year-on-year it remained unchanged. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking an expansion in growth for three consecutive months [5]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the rate of decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the first contraction since March. Year-on-year, the PPI fell by 3.6%, with the decline rate consistent with the previous month [5]. - The data indicates that the effects of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are becoming evident, leading to positive changes in consumer prices. However, industrial producer prices continue to decline due to seasonal factors and uncertainties in the international trade environment, although competition in the domestic market is improving prices in certain industries [5].

Group 1 - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Guangdong turned positive month-on-month, influenced by domestic demand expansion policies and the peak summer travel season, with a 0.5% increase [1] - Food prices decreased by 0.3%, while non-food prices increased by 0.6%, driven by significant travel demand during the summer, leading to a 29.8% rise in airfare prices and increases in tourism and accommodation costs [1] - The rental prices for private housing also increased due to heightened demand during the graduation season [1] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Guangdong saw a month-on-month decline of 0.2%, with the rate of decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Prices for production materials decreased by 0.3%, while prices for living materials fell by 0.1%, with the decline in living materials remaining stable [1] - Among the 38 major industries surveyed for PPI, 11 industries saw price increases, 25 experienced declines, and 2 remained unchanged, resulting in an industry increase rate of 28.9%, which is an expansion of 10.5 percentage points from the previous month [1]