意外也不意外。 我跟朋友开玩笑说，活久见，这大概是这几年地产人唯一的甜。 6月13日，也就是昨天，首个全面取消限购的超一线城市出现了，广州。 意外的是，看似还算平稳的超一线市场怎么就一下全面放开了；不意外的是，如果有这天到来的时候，那一定自广州始。 而且它还不是单一出击，新的旧的，集结了一箩筐政策，老广真的太客气。 别急，我们去看看这次广州全面放开到底是基于一个怎样的背景，看完你就有答案了。 一 首先，广州的成交并不差。这里的不坏我分两条线说。 不过相比广州地产人，我朋友圈更嗨的是非广州地产人。 确实，每到这时候，留给所有局外人最黏糊的东西不就是遐想么。 所以接下来会怎样，其他三个会跟么？ 首先是广州新房。 今年一季度，广州新房成交14453套，这个数字对比2022年、2023年同期确实低了，但跟过去三年各季度相比，不算跌相难看的数字。 同比2024年一季度，还涨了39%。 所以今年的新房数据不算难看。 其次是这里的二手住宅的成交。 这个数据更好看，1～5月二手住宅网签了46722套，同比涨幅17.82%。 其中，5月网签了9228套，同比涨幅16.79%。 数据源：克而瑞广州 数据源：广州市房地产中介协会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing significant changes, with a growing number of families facing difficulties in selling multiple properties, leading to a shift in perception regarding real estate as an investment tool [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of October 2022, 41.5% of urban households in China owned two or more properties, indicating a fundamental change in the supply-demand relationship in the real estate market [1]. - The total number of commercial housing units in China exceeded 182 million by December 2022, far surpassing market demand, reflecting a significant oversupply issue [6]. - Many families that previously invested in multiple properties are now struggling to sell them, with the once-booming market now characterized by stagnation and declining prices [3][5]. Group 2: Changing Consumer Behavior - Young people are increasingly opting out of homeownership, viewing it as a burden rather than a status symbol, which contrasts with previous generations' perspectives [6][11]. - Economic pressures from the pandemic have led to a shift in consumer behavior, with many families prioritizing savings over spending, further dampening demand for real estate [8][9]. - The rental market is also under pressure, particularly in lower-tier cities, where demand is significantly lower than in major urban centers [8][9]. Group 3: Financial Implications - Families with multiple properties are facing increased financial strain due to stagnant incomes and ongoing mortgage obligations, raising concerns about potential defaults [9]. - The anticipated implementation of property taxes may further exacerbate financial burdens for those owning multiple properties, potentially leading to a rush to sell and further market decline [9][16]. - The situation mirrors historical trends seen in Japan and South Korea, where real estate bubbles led to economic downturns and social issues, although China's circumstances are viewed as more favorable due to effective macroeconomic policies [11][13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The Chinese government is taking measures to stabilize the real estate market, aiming for a more rational and stable environment moving forward [16]. - The role of real estate is shifting back to fulfilling basic housing needs rather than serving as a primary investment vehicle, aligning with the changing attitudes of younger generations [16].

行业走势图 行 业 研 究 2025 年 06 月 08 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《城市更新示范城市扩容，去库存进 程有望提速 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.6.6 《"好房子"系列专题一：四代宅崛起， 政策红利与产品创新驱动居住升级— 行业深度报告》-2025.6.4 《新房成交面积环比增长，杭州土拍 市场火热—行业周报》-2025.6.2 新房成交面积同环比下降，城市更新示范城市扩容 ——行业周报 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | 证书编号：S0790124070064 | 核心观点：新房成交面积同环比下降，城市更新示范城市扩容 本周我们跟踪的 68 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The central government continues to support urban renewal, with 20 cities selected as demonstration cities, while both new and second-hand housing transaction volumes have shrunk [7] - The report emphasizes that stable real estate companies are key investment focuses, particularly those with strong financial health and good performance, such as Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and others [7] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index rose by 0.86%, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.88%, indicating a relative underperformance of the real estate sector [3][12] Industry Fundamentals - In the week of May 30 to June 5, the total transaction volume of new homes in 38 key cities was 21,688 units, a year-on-year decrease of 26.9% and a month-on-month decrease of 27.2% [5][21] - The total transaction area was 218.5 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 34.5% and a month-on-month decrease of 27.9% [5][21] - The inventory of commercial housing in 17 key cities was 187.25 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% and a depletion cycle of 143.7 weeks [5][51] Land Market Supply and Transactions - In the week of May 26 to June 1, land supply was 35.949 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, with an average supply price of 2,157 yuan per square meter, up 60.3% year-on-year [6] - Land transaction volume was 23.175 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 23.2%, and the transaction amount reached 35.71 billion yuan, up 50.7% year-on-year [6] Financing Analysis - Real estate companies issued a total of 6.5 billion yuan in credit bonds in the week of May 30 to June 5, with a year-on-year increase of 12.07% and a month-on-month increase of 11.88% [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - New housing and second-hand housing transaction areas have decreased both year-on-year and month-on-month. The central bank has lowered the LPR by 25 basis points [4][58] - The first four months of 2025 show initial stabilization in sales, with the Politburo meeting affirming the effectiveness of real estate adjustment policies, indicating that more positive fiscal and monetary policies are expected to support steady industry development [4][58] Summary by Sections 1. Policy Changes - The central bank has announced a reduction in personal housing provident fund loan rates by 0.25 percentage points, with the five-year and above first home rate dropping from 2.85% to 2.6%, potentially saving residents over 20 billion yuan in interest annually [13][15] - Multiple cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, have implemented new policies to lower housing loan rates [5][13] 2. Sales Performance - In the 19th week of 2025, the transaction area for new homes in 68 major cities was 2.1 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 15% and a month-on-month decrease of 8%. Cumulatively, the transaction area from the beginning of the year to date is 43.97 million square meters, down 3% year-on-year [20][31] - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 20 cities was 1.6 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth rate of -28% [35] 3. Investment Performance - In the 19th week of 2025, 100 major cities launched land planning with a total area of 27.98 million square meters, with 11.4 million square meters successfully transacted, a year-on-year increase of 47% [42] - The land transaction premium rate was 12.4%, indicating a competitive land market [42] 4. Financing Trends - The issuance of domestic credit bonds increased by 183% month-on-month to 5.81 billion yuan, with an average weighted interest rate of 2.25%, down 32 basis points [47][58] 5. Market Performance - The real estate index rose by 0.41% in the week of May 6-9, 2025, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index, which increased by 2% [53][58] - The report highlights the top-performing real estate stocks, including Asia-Pacific Industry and South Country Real Estate, with significant gains [54][58]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The transaction area of new and second-hand houses has decreased both year-on-year and month-on-month, with the central bank again lowering the LPR by 25 basis points. The sales in the first four months of 2025 have shown initial stabilization, and the political bureau meeting in April affirmed the effectiveness of real estate adjustment policies, indicating that more positive fiscal and monetary policies are expected to support the industry's steady development [4][58]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Implementation - The central bank has announced a reduction in the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, with the five-year and above first home rate dropping from 2.85% to 2.6%. This is expected to save residents over 20 billion yuan in interest annually, supporting rigid housing demand and stabilizing the real estate market [13][15]. 2. Sales Performance - In the 19th week of 2025, the transaction area of new residential properties in 68 cities was 2.1 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 15% and a month-on-month decrease of 8%. Cumulatively, the transaction area from the beginning of the year to date is 43.97 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 3% [20][31]. - The transaction area of second-hand houses in 20 cities was 1.6 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth rate of -28% [35]. 3. Investment Performance - In the 19th week of 2025, 100 major cities launched land planning with a total area of 27.98 million square meters, and the transaction area was 11.4 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 47%. The average transaction premium rate was 12.4% [42][43]. 4. Financing Trends - In the 19th week of 2025, the issuance of credit bonds was 5.81 billion yuan, remaining flat year-on-year but increasing by 183% month-on-month. The average weighted interest rate was 2.25%, a decrease of 32 basis points [47][51]. 5. Market Review - The real estate index rose by 0.41% in the week of May 6-9, 2025, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose by 2%. The real estate sector ranked 27th among 28 sectors [53][54].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reintroduction of special bonds for land reserves in China after a five-year suspension, highlighting the reasons for the initial halt and the current economic context that necessitates this move [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context of Land Reserve Bonds - The land reserve system in China was established in 2001, with funding sources evolving through various phases, including the initial reliance on loans, the introduction of special bonds in 2017, and the suspension of these bonds from September 2019 to October 2024 [2][5][9]. - The special bonds for land reserves were first launched in 2017 and saw significant issuance until their suspension in 2019, which was aimed at regulating the real estate market and directing funds towards infrastructure [10][14]. Group 2: Characteristics of the Current Land Reserve Bonds - The current round of land reserve special bonds is distinct from previous issuances, focusing on acquiring idle land that has been supplied but not developed, particularly from enterprises unable or unwilling to continue development [25][36]. - The issuance of these bonds is intended to alleviate financial pressure on local governments and stabilize the real estate market by optimizing land resource allocation from "incremental expansion" to "stock optimization" [25][36]. Group 3: Issuance and Progress of Land Reserve Bonds - As of April 17, 2025, only nine bonds related to land reserves have been issued, totaling approximately 850.97 billion yuan, with 516.74 billion yuan specifically allocated for land reserves [27][30]. - The slow issuance pace is attributed to the recent establishment of detailed guidelines for the bonds and the concurrent issuance of debt to replace hidden liabilities, which has crowded out the issuance window for land reserve bonds [27][36]. Group 4: Analysis of Land Acquisition - The proposed land for acquisition primarily includes mixed-use, residential, and commercial properties, with a significant portion of the land being targeted for acquisition by state-owned enterprises and local government financing platforms [36][41]. - The average discount rate for land acquisition is approximately 12%, with state-owned enterprises receiving lower discounts compared to private enterprises, which face higher acquisition costs [46].

北京市住建委：2025年建设筹集保障性租赁住房5万套 4月14日，据北京市住房城乡建设委消息，近期北京市召开2025年住房保障工作专题部署会，明确六项 重点工作。会议要求，要坚持盘活存量为主、适度新增为辅，通过新建，存量商业办公、厂房、社区配 套用房等非居用房改建，统筹城中村改造安置房建设等方式，全面完成"十四五"时期建设筹集保障性租 赁住房40万套（间）任务，全年建设筹集保障性租赁住房5万套（间），竣工各类保障性住房8万套 （间）。 无锡取消限售政策 4月15日，据微信公众号"无锡发布"消息，为进一步优化房地产市场平稳健康发展，加快构建房地产发 展新模式，无锡市发布《关于促进房地产市场平稳健康发展若干政策措施的通知》。新政提及，自2025 年4月14日起，无锡全市范围内取消限售，商品住房在取得不动产权登记证书后即可上市交易，有效满 足居民各类住房置换需求。 苏州公积金新政支持多子女家庭 贷款额度最高上浮40% 4月17日，苏州发布公积金贷款新政。其中提到，自2025年5月15日起，养育未成年二孩的缴存人家庭使 用住房公积金贷款购买家庭首套或第二套自住住房的，贷款额度在可贷额度基础上可上浮30%。养育未 成年 ...

加大青年人刚性购房政策支持、优化拓展住房消费"以旧换新"模式、全面取消商品住房转让限制、进一 步加大住房公积金支持…… 3月31日，江苏省南京市举行进一步促进南京房地产市场平稳健康发展有关政策新闻发布会，并发布了 稳定房地产市场的"房七条"。其中，全面取消实行8年的"限售令"备受市场关注。 事实上，自2022年以来，房地产行业进入下行期，南京市曾对"限售令"进行两次定向松绑，一次是 将"取得《不动产权证》满3年"调整为"自合同备案之日起满3年"，另一次则是对购买新建商品房的家庭 和二孩及多孩家庭且有未成年子女的两类人群解除限售。 "房七条"规定，自3月31日起，南京市取消限售，商品住房在取得不动产权登记证书后即可上市交易， 有效满足居民各类住房置换需求。 据了解，早在2017年5月，由于彼时楼市过热，南京市出台了"限售令"，购房人（含居民家庭）新购住 房在取得不动产权证后，3年内不得转让，以防止炒房客从中牟利。 据中指研究院统计，2025年以来，多地继续通过优化公积金贷款政策、加大购房补贴力度等方式降低居 民购房成本，推动住房需求释放。3月，全国各地出台约56条利好政策。 上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进向《 ...