Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) has announced an optimization of the Stock Connect trading mechanism, which is expected to shorten the settlement cycle and enhance market liquidity. The number of new listings in the first half of the year has increased by 15% year-on-year, contributing to a positive market reaction regarding its revenue from transaction fees [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - HKEX's stock closed at HKD 431.2, with a daily increase of 0.28% and a trading volume of HKD 1.502 billion [1]. - Technical analysis indicates a "strong buy" signal with a strength of 16, while multiple moving averages also reflect a robust medium to long-term trend [2]. - The stock is currently approaching its first resistance level at HKD 439, with a 54% probability of breaking through this level [5]. Group 2: Support and Resistance Levels - The first support level for HKEX is at HKD 419, with a deeper support level at HKD 403. The first resistance level is at HKD 439, and a higher resistance level is at HKD 448 [5]. - The stock has experienced a 2.5% fluctuation over the past five days, indicating some short-term speculative opportunities [5]. Group 3: Derivative Products - For bullish investors, UBS call option (16698) has a leverage of 9.4 times with a strike price of HKD 484.08, while HSBC call option (13488) has a leverage of 7.5 times with a strike price of HKD 480.2, both featuring relatively low premiums [7]. - For bearish investors, UBS put option (53316) offers the lowest premium with a leverage of 13.1 times and a strike price of HKD 460, while Morgan Stanley put option (54605) has the highest leverage of 12.5 times with the same strike price [9].

Cryptocurrency Exchange Platforms - Bybit is highlighted as a preferred platform for technical analysis [1] - Binance is noted as the largest global exchange, offering a 40% fee reduction [1] - OKX is mentioned as an established platform with commission waivers [1] Resources and Community - Registration and deposit (or reactivation of old accounts) provide a free one-month membership experience [1] - Customer support is available via Discord community (@tiahelper) [1] - Information channels include Twitter (https://x.com/tiabitcoin), a course website (https://www.tiabtc.com), and a Telegram channel (https://t.me/tiaalert) [1] Cryptocurrency and Trading Topics - The content references various cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, Solana, ADA, BNB, XRP, DOT, AVAX, LUNA, and UNI [1] - Trading strategies and theories mentioned are technical analysis, Dow Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Fibonacci, Harmonic Patterns, Natural Trading Theory, Gann Theory [1] - Trading-related terms include "抄底 (buying the dip)", "做多 (going long)", "做空 (going short)", and "套保 (hedging)" [1] Bitcoin-Specific Information - Topics covered include Bitcoin contracts, options, ETFs, analysis, what it is, trends, mining, the 2024 halving, crashes, and news [1] - Mentions of "比特币今日分析 (Bitcoin analysis today)" and "比特币每日分析 (Bitcoin analysis daily)" [1]

Group 1 - The market has shown a strong upward trend, with the index rising from 19,600 to 25,130 points, indicating a "buy" signal with resistance levels at 25,194 and 25,961 points [1] - HSBC Holdings has reached a significant price point of 100 HKD, with a closing price of 99.7 HKD, and a strong buy signal is indicated with resistance levels at 101 HKD and 106 HKD [3] - BYD's stock price closed at 134.2 HKD, breaking through the upper Bollinger Band, with a buy signal and short-term resistance levels at 140 HKD and 144.8 HKD [5] - Zijin Mining has seen a three-day rise, closing above both daily and weekly chart tops, with a strong buy signal and short-term resistance levels at 23.4 HKD and 24.4 HKD [8] - SMIC has a buy signal with resistance levels at 50.4 HKD and 53.4 HKD, as investors anticipate a breakout above 49 HKD [11] - China Shenhua has also shown a strong upward trend, with a buy signal and resistance levels at 36.1 HKD and 37.9 HKD, suggesting investors should consider closer-to-the-money products [14]

Core Viewpoint - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL) has shown strong performance in the stock market, with a price increase of 4.56% to 413 HKD, indicating a bullish trend supported by key moving averages [1][2]. Technical Analysis - The stock price has successfully broken through all significant moving averages, with MA10 at 380.74 HKD, MA30 at 338.39 HKD, and MA60 at 330.26 HKD, forming a typical bullish pattern [1]. - The RSI indicator is at 81, entering the overbought zone, suggesting a potential technical pullback in the short term [1]. - Immediate support is at 371 HKD, with a potential drop to 339 HKD if this level is breached; resistance is at 423 HKD, with a challenge to 462 HKD if broken [2]. Derivative Instruments Performance - On July 17, CATL-related derivative instruments exhibited significant leverage, with Societe Generale's call option (16834) soaring by 73% in two days, and Bank of China’s call option (16854) rising by 60% [4]. - For investors optimistic about CATL's future, Societe Generale's call option (16832) is highlighted for its 7.2x leverage and competitive pricing [7]. Market Sentiment - There is a mixed signal in technical indicators, with MACD maintaining a buy signal while momentum indicators show divergence, indicating potential market shifts [2]. - The current upward probability is estimated at 51%, with the bull-bear strength indicator also signaling a buying opportunity [2].

Core Viewpoint - HSBC's stock price has shown a strong upward trend, successfully breaking through key moving averages, indicating a robust bullish channel despite some technical divergence signals suggesting potential short-term adjustments [1]. Technical Analysis - As of July 18, HSBC's stock price reached 98.1 HKD, up 0.46%, with significant support at MA60 (92.35 HKD) and immediate support at 95 HKD. A drop below 95 HKD could lead to a further decline to 91.7 HKD. The psychological resistance level is at 99 HKD, with a potential challenge at 104.7 HKD if broken [1]. - The RSI indicator is at 72, indicating an overbought condition, while the 5-day volatility is at 2.7%, suggesting stable investor sentiment [1]. - Current upward probability is estimated at 53%, supported by a moderate increase in trading volume, indicating orderly capital inflow into the stock [1]. Derivative Instruments Performance - On July 16, HSBC-related derivatives demonstrated strong leverage effects, with Morgan Stanley's bull certificate (56622) and UBS's bull certificate (56446) both recording a 9% increase over two days, reflecting effective participation tools in the banking stock market [3]. - UBS call option (13631) and Bank of China call option (15974) also performed well, achieving gains of 7% and 6% respectively [3]. Recommended Derivative Instruments - For investors optimistic about HSBC's future, the call option (15475) is highlighted for its high leverage of 12.4 times and a strike price of 115.88 HKD, offering cost-effectiveness [6]. - For risk-averse investors, Bank of China put option (16855) provides a leverage of 7.1 times with a strike price of 81.5 HKD, while UBS put option (16699) offers 6.1 times leverage [6]. - Bearish instruments include UBS bear certificate (60586) with 11.7 times leverage and Morgan Stanley bear certificate (60926) with 10.6 times leverage, with respective recovery prices set at 105 HKD and 106 HKD [6].

Core Viewpoint - China Shenhua (01088) shows a moderate increase in stock price, indicating cautious market sentiment among investors [1] Technical Analysis - As of July 18, the stock price is at HKD 32.25, with a rise of 1.25%. The price is above the 10-day moving average (MA10) of HKD 31.54 but fluctuates near the 30-day (MA30) at HKD 32.71 and 60-day (MA60) at HKD 32.22, suggesting a consolidation pattern [1] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 53, indicating a neutral zone, while a 5-day volatility of 5.3% reflects cautious trading behavior [1] - Key support is at HKD 31.1; if breached, it may drop to HKD 30.6. Resistance is at HKD 33.6, and a breakthrough could lead to a challenge at HKD 34.7 [1] - Technical indicators show mixed signals: MACD indicates a buy signal, while momentum oscillators suggest a sell signal, indicating an imminent market direction choice [1] - The probability of an upward movement is estimated at 54%, with the bull-bear power indicator turning to a buy signal, providing some hope for future performance [1] Derivative Instruments - For investors optimistic about China Shenhua's future, the Morgan Stanley call option (16502) is noteworthy, offering a leverage of 4.7 times with a strike price of HKD 36.6 and the lowest implied volatility in its category [3] - The Bank of China call option (16929) has a strike price of HKD 42.93 and a leverage of 5.8 times. UBS and Morgan Stanley bull certificates provide a leverage of 5.9 times, with redemption prices set at HKD 27 and HKD 27.2, suitable for risk-tolerant investors [3] - For cautious investors, the UBS bear certificate (53197) offers a leverage of 5.9 times with a redemption price of HKD 37, appropriate for those anticipating a potential pullback in China Shenhua's stock [3]

Market Analysis - Bitcoin is consolidating, facing resistance due to high funding rates, indicating many are longing, potentially weighing down upward movement [1] - Ethereum has broken through resistance, but shows signs of selling pressure on the 4-hour chart, suggesting a period of consolidation before further upward movement [1] - Altcoins may present opportunities while Ethereum consolidates, but high volatility and risk require caution [1] Technical Analysis - Bitcoin's inability to break higher despite significant volume suggests potential for a pullback to clear late longs before further ascent [1] - Ethereum's potential five-wave structure suggests a possible top in the future, prompting consideration of profit-taking on long positions based on technical analysis rather than news [1] - Ethereum tested the 0618%-066% retracement level and failed to sustain above it, indicating a possible downward move based on 1:1 symmetry [1] Trading Strategy - The speaker advises against chasing Bitcoin longs at current levels, favoring a consolidation phase to shake out weak hands [1] - The speaker would consider buying Bitcoin if it dips, consolidates, and then recovers [1] - The speaker is not considering shorting Ethereum, anticipating further upward movement after a period of consolidation [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings is currently experiencing a tug-of-war around the 500 HKD mark, with the stock price at 507 HKD, indicating a technical stalemate [1] Technical Analysis - The stock is barely above the MA10 at 499.91 HKD but is constrained by the MA30 at 506.84 HKD, showing mixed indicator performance [1] - The overall technical indicators suggest a "sell" signal with a strength of only 9 points, while the bullish-bearish strength indicator shows a "buy" signal [1] - The RSI is at 51, indicating a neutral zone, and a 2.8% five-day volatility reflects a strong market wait-and-see atmosphere [1] Key Support and Resistance Levels - Key support is at 487 HKD, with a strong support zone at 470 HKD; resistance is at 518 HKD, and a breakthrough could challenge 535 HKD [3] - The current probability of an upward movement is 54%, indicating a balance between bullish and bearish forces [3] Product Performance - UBS bull certificate (69944) has performed well, surging 49% in two days with the underlying stock up 1.19%, showcasing high leverage characteristics [3] - HSBC bull certificate (69321) also performed strongly, increasing by 44% [3] - For call options, Bank of China call certificates (13873 and 29579) recorded increases of 16% and 12%, respectively [3] Investment Options - Investors with a bullish outlook can consider Bank of China call certificate 29579, which offers a leverage of 14.8 times with the lowest premium among similar products [6] - For those expecting significant upward movement, Bank of China call certificate 13873 provides a leverage of 17.8 times, although its premium is slightly higher but still reasonable [6] - For investors preferring bull certificates, UBS bull certificate 69944 offers an actual leverage of 18.4 times with a low premium [6] Hedging Options - For cautious investors, Citibank put certificate 15235 offers a leverage of 22.3 times with a relatively low premium, making it a primary choice for bearish outlooks [10] - For expectations of significant downturns, Societe Generale bear certificate 60438 provides a high leverage of 30.6 times with a recovery price set at 522 HKD [10] - UBS bear certificate 61324 also features a leverage of 30.6 times, with a recovery price of 520 HKD, providing a good risk-return ratio [10]

Group 1 - Ctrip's stock price has shown a strong trend, currently at 485.6 HKD, with a recent drop of 0.7% and a 5-day volatility of 7.6%, indicating robust market momentum [1] - The stock has surpassed key moving averages (MA10 at 470.64, MA30 at 472.79, and MA60 at 475.69), with multiple moving averages signaling a "strong buy" [1] - The RSI indicator is at 58, nearing the overbought zone, while MACD and Bollinger Bands continue to provide buy signals, although short-term overbought correction signals are present [1] Group 2 - Recent data indicates support levels at 466 HKD (previous neckline) and 448 HKD (medium-term uptrend line), with potential for capital inflow if the stock retraces to these levels [2] - The primary resistance level is at 503 HKD, and breaking this level could open up a path to 529 HKD, with a 54% probability of upward movement reflecting a slight bullish advantage [2] Group 3 - Ctrip's stock performance has led to significant gains in related leveraged products, with a 2.01% increase in the stock price resulting in a 13% rise in the Morgan Stanley bull certificate and a 12% rise in the UBS bull certificate over two trading days [4] - The stock's strong performance has attracted attention to various call and put options, with notable leverage ratios and strike prices indicating potential trading strategies [7][10] Group 4 - The market is currently observing a bullish sentiment towards Ctrip, with discussions on whether the stock can break through the 503 HKD level during the summer travel peak or if it will consolidate within the 466-503 HKD range [14]

Core Viewpoint - JD Group's stock price is currently fluctuating around HKD 121.6, showing a decline of 1.38%, with significant market divergence observed [2][5]. Technical Analysis - The stock is trading below key moving averages: MA10 at HKD 126.04, MA30 at HKD 128.3, and MA60 at HKD 130.6, indicating a prevailing "sell" signal [2]. - The technical strength index is low at 14, suggesting dominant downward pressure, while the RSI is at 41, nearing the oversold zone [2]. - Key support levels are identified at HKD 119.4 and HKD 115.2, with resistance at HKD 128 and potential further resistance at HKD 133.4 [5]. Market Sentiment - Recent trading activity shows a significant increase in bearish derivative products, with notable gains in put options as JD's stock price fell [5]. - The trading volume for JD's stock was reported at HKD 2.099 billion, indicating that capital has not significantly exited the market [5]. Derivative Products - Active trading in JD's warrants suggests potential short-term rebounds, with specific warrants offering leverage of 4.7 to 6.1 times [8]. - Investors looking for bearish positions can consider high-leverage put options, which have shown competitive pricing and volatility [8]. Bull and Bear Certificates - For aggressive investors, a bull certificate with a recovery price of HKD 118 offers a high leverage of 14.5 times, while a more conservative option has a recovery price of HKD 115 with 9.9 times leverage [10]. - Bear certificates are also available for those anticipating a rebound followed by a decline, with both options providing around 6.3 times leverage [10].